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1. Introduction
Seven years ago, President Bill Clinton informed the nation in his State
of the Union address that the '' era of big government'' was over. It
now appears that his pronouncement may have been premature. Turning
Clinton's statement on its head, Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N. Y.) wrote in
December 2001, '' The era of a shrinking federal government has come
to a close. '' Schumer was hardly alone. Well before the wreckage of the
World Trade Center had stopped smoldering, such pundits as Francis
Fukuyama and George Will were eagerly heralding the '' fall'' of libertari-anism
and the '' death'' of small-government conservatism. September 11
had proven— had it not?— the necessity of a muscular central government
with sweeping powers. The wave of corporate scandals beginning with
Enron's collapse had proven it again by demonstrating the need for robust
regulation to comfort increasingly skittish investors.
In light of this new conventional wisdom, it might seem anachronistic,
even quaint, to echo President Reagan's famous claim that '' government
is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem. '' Who, in
these chaotic times, could seriously suggest that we need, not larger and
more flexible government, but fewer federal programs, less spending,
fewer regulations?
Well, the Cato Institute. Not merely because we have been committed
to the principles of limited government, respect for individual rights, and
open markets since our inception, but because the new orthodoxy is grossly
at variance with reality. Our military and intelligence forces must, of
course, focus their full energies on dismantling the al-Qaeda terrorist
network and preventing any future attacks against the homeland. But
neither public sentiment nor the public good demands a wider scope for
government in general. If anything, the great challenges the United States
now faces require, more than ever, that its government respect the bound-aries
set by the Constitution, so that it may focus more vigorously on its
core functions.
As poll watchers well know, there was a paradoxical surge of public
trust in government following the attacks of September 11, 2001, just
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when the failure of government to carry out its most central obligation—
the protection of the homeland— had been made terrifyingly clear. Perhaps
the rise in trust can best be interpreted as a sort of prospective vote of
confidence, a reflection, not of our belief in what government had been
doing, but in our expectation of its capabilities when put to the test.
Optimism has its limits, however, and the most recent data show that
long-term trends toward lower public trust in government, and policy
preferences favoring smaller government, are beginning to reassert them-selves.
Plus C¸a Change: The Public Mood
The 1960s and 1970s saw a continual decline in public support for
more government activism, a trend that bottomed out in 1980. Support
for activism then climbed throughout the 1980s, perhaps because of the
prosperity of the era and the perceived success of the Reagan administra-tion.
Since 1990, however, the overall trend has been away from support
for government activism; in recent years, the policy mood measure has
declined steadily and about as steeply as it did during the 1970s. The
Washington establishment seems not to realize that, as the 108th Congress
convenes, the political mood of Americans is every bit as skeptical as it
was in 1981 at the start of the Reagan revolution.
Conventional wisdom notwithstanding, data compiled by University of
North Carolina political scientist James Stimson reveal no perceptible shift
in this trend as a result of the 2001 terror attacks. Stimson's latest data,
from 2002, indicate a continued move away from support for expansive
government. The evidence also indicates a renewed decline in public trust
in the federal government. For many years survey researchers have asked
citizens how much they trusted the federal government to do the right
thing. The proportion that answered '' just about always'' or '' most of the
time'' provides a rough measure of public trust in the federal government.
Trust has declined most of the time since its historic high point in the 1960s.
About a month after September 11, Princeton Survey Research Associ-ates
posed the trust question to a sample of Americans. They found 57
percent of those polled trusted the federal government to do the right thing
'' just about always'' or '' most of the time''— strikingly higher than the
recent trend. But this trust soon faded: the same question posed in May
2002 showed that only 40 percent of respondents trusted the federal
government. This fits well with a public mood skeptical of expanded
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Introduction
federal power. After all, a public that trusts government less and less will
hardly demand that it do more and more.
The willingness of a frightened polity to sacrifice civil liberties for the
sake of increased security has also ebbed. Early in 2002, a Gallup/ CNN/
USA Today poll found that 47 percent of those polled thought the govern-ment
should take all necessary steps to prevent terrorism even if the
respondent's civil liberties suffered; 49 percent opposed such steps if the
price included their basic civil liberties. By June 2002, 56 percent opposed
preventing terrorism at the cost of civil liberties, and 40 percent supported
'' all necessary steps'' against terrorism. Americans seem to be moving
back toward their pre– September 11 views on civil liberties.
On a wide variety of issues, citizens are increasingly willing to seek
innovative private-sector solutions to problems government has failed to
ameliorate. An annual Phi Delta Kappa/ Gallup poll on school choice found
a dramatic leap in support for vouchers: a majority of those polled would
now support a proposal to '' allow parents to send their school-age children
to any public, private, or church-related school they choose, '' with govern-ment
paying part or all of the tuition. Perhaps most surprising, a Cato
Institute/ Zogby International poll conducted during the stock market slump
in the summer of 2002, mere weeks after news of the WorldCom scandal
broke, found that more than 68 percent of likely voters favored '' changing
the Social Security system to give younger workers the choice to invest
a portion of their Social Security taxes through individual accounts. ''
Clearly, the prophets of a new '' era of big government'' are less skilled
at gauging voter opinion than they are at projecting their own policy
preferences onto the electorate.
The Beltway Cocoon
What explains this massive disparity between what the public wants
and what pundits and elected officials seem to think the public wants? In
part, it may simply be that the panicked call to '' do something'' and the
resurgence of faith in government following the attacks on New York
and Washington, D. C., understandably made a more palpable impression
on most observers than the cooling off that followed. The more troublesome
explanation, though, is that there exists in Congress a systemic bias toward
seeing the expansion of government as a solution to almost every problem.
That bias is not a fluke but a direct consequence of the current structure
of American electoral politics.
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Whereas the Founders of the American republic envisioned a govern-ment
of citizen legislators for whom public service would be a solemn
but temporary charge, we now see a regime composed almost exclusively
of professional politicians. It was not always this way: average congres-sional
tenure has risen steeply over the past century. Chief among the
culprits responsible for this change is the huge and growing advantage
enjoyed by House incumbents, who in recent years have seen reelection
rates rise above 98 percent. In addition to all the traditional privileges
afforded incumbents— a staff devoted to constituent service, the power
of franking, access to Congress's television studio, to say nothing of the
ability to name hospitals and highways after oneself— sitting legislators
are now protected by increasingly stringent campaign finance laws, which
limit the ability of challengers to overcome those advantages through
vigorous political speech. Even redistricting, which historically led to
dozens of more competitive congressional races, has deteriorated into a
bipartisan, computer-driven process of incumbent protection.
Incumbent advantage leads to a vicious cycle, wherein the most compe-tent
potential challengers are deterred from entering contests, except those
for open seats, further tightening the incumbent's hold on power. As
incumbent protection drives up average tenure, the amount of time one
must be willing to commit to politics in order to build support or secure
an influential committee chair also increases. Decades of this process have
transformed politics into a game worth playing only for those determined
to make a career of it.
This may not be entirely bad: some such people may just be unusually
committed to public service. But whatever their motives, those who find
the prospect of spending their lives in government attractive are also likely
to have an inflated view of the role and importance of the state in American
life. An old story about the chess genius Bobby Fischer has him interrupting
a conversation about politics between some fellow players with the
demand, '' What's that got to do with chess? '' Entrenched political classes
are afflicted with a parallel sort of myopia. For them, discussion of any
public benefit bubbling up from civil society or the private sector provokes
the response, '' What has that got to do with a new federal program? ''
To promote real political leadership, it will probably be necessary to
change the institutional constraints that give rise to that kind of tunnel
vision. In the meantime, however, legislators who sincerely desire to serve
the public trust must force themselves to notice this pervasive bias and
to overcome it.
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Terror and Scandal
The two developments most frequently cited as evidence for the neces-sity
of enlarging government power are the War on Terror and the spate of
corporate accounting scandals that began with Enron's collapse. Legislators
have been eager to propose new laws intended to combat both terror and
corporate malfeasance, but there has been far less examination of how
existing laws contributed to both problems. While new laws may in some
instances be both necessary and proper, we should put first things first.
Before we contemplate what else we can do to make things better, we
ought to ask what we may already be doing to make things worse.
Crooked CEOs are wholly responsible for defrauding investors, but as
William Niskanen observes in Chapter 22, legal incentives increased both
the likelihood of the bankruptcies that fraud was intended to cover and
the lack of managerial accountability that made the fraud itself possible.
Biases in the tax code encourage corporations to take on excessive debt
and to compensate CEOs in the form of stock options. Since option holders
can win big on a dramatic rise in the price of their companies' stock, but
lose nothing if it drops further below the exercise price, options encourage
them to take larger risks than they otherwise might. Moreover, corporate
governance rules— an inscrutable tangle of federal securities laws, state
regulations, and policies particular to each company— have left managers
increasingly insulated from the shareholder scrutiny and control that might
check unsound business practices. In the long term, fixing these structural
imbalances will do more to prevent future scandals than will parading a
few handcuffed CEOs before the evening news cameras.
Of course, when malfeasance does occur, there is surely a place for
government in punishing deception. However, instead of asking why the
Securities and Exchange Commission failed to use its already ample
powers to catch that deception earlier on, Congress, eager to demonstrate
its '' toughness, '' tipped the balance too far in the other direction by
effectively criminalizing corporate risk taking and created a redundant
Accounting Oversight Board of dubious constitutionality.
The government's response to terror has in many ways been equally
unreflective. There has been no serious examination of how government
failed on September 11. We have not yet had an independent investigation
of intelligence and other failures. But we know that poor communication
between intelligence agencies led to the neglect of numerous warning
signs that an attack was imminent. We know that the Immigration and
Naturalization Service was not keeping track of people who entered on
temporary visas. We know that for more than a year, both before and
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after September 11, the FBI kept 10 agents employed conducting a full-time
wiretap of a New Orleans brothel. We know that at the moment the
planes crashed into the World Trade Center, the president of the United
States was in an elementary school classroom in Florida— a striking exam-ple
of the federal government's loss of focus on its essential functions in
an endless and diffuse morass of programs.
It would be natural to conclude that federal law enforcement has used
its existing powers ineffectively— perhaps because it has been forced to
squander its energies on prying in the bedrooms of adults, breaking down
the doors of sick people who smoke marijuana, and carrying out police
functions that both intelligent policy and constitutional fidelity demand
be left to the states. Instead, Congress's response has been to fiddle a bit
with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the INS and create
new layers of bureaucracy— apparently on the theory that nothing speeds
along the smooth flow of information like more red tape— while leaving
the major structural problems unaddressed. Instead of finding ways to
make better use of existing police and intelligence powers, it has recklessly
added to those powers. It is almost as though endless discussions of the
'' tradeoffs between liberty and security'' have led us to infer that constrict-ing
liberty automatically increases security. Yet as Robert Levy and Timo-thy
Lynch argue in their analyses of current threats to civil liberties in
Chapters 12 and 13, proposals to introduce a national ID or to try '' enemy
combatants, '' as determined via executive fiat, by military tribunal would
do little to make Americans safer. They would, in fact, have only one
absolutely certain effect: the evisceration of citizens' rights to privacy and
due process.
No less troubling is our newly bellicose approach to foreign affairs.
The kind of hysterical overreaction to hypothetical worst-case scenarios
that was once the exclusive province of the most radical fringe of the
environmental movement has apparently found a home at the heart of the
current administration. At a time when we have more than enough proven
threats with which to cope, advocates of '' preemption'' would have us
swing erratically from perceived enemy to perceived enemy. This disas-trous
prescription would blur our collective focus, undermining our efforts
to break the back of the terrorist networks that are our most pressing
concern, and, indeed, swelling their ranks. Osama bin Laden would surely
like nothing better than an American attempt to establish an imperial
caliphate in the heart of the Muslim world; the administration's reasons
for sharing his eagerness are opaque.
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Conclusion
Fidelity to our founding principles of respect for civil liberties and
limited government is easy when times are easy, as they were through
much of the tech boom of the 1990s. The true test of our faith in those
principles comes now, when we are beset by diabolical assaults from
without and economic turmoil within, when public anxiety may temporarily
make it seem expedient to put those principles aside.
We know that the Constitution is functioning properly when it frustrates
us. Bland and innocuous speech has little need of constitutional protec-tions;
the First Amendment exists to safeguard the contentious, provoca-tive,
and even offensive speech that stirs censorious impulses. By the same
token, the importance of paying scrupulous deference to the Constitution's
limits on federal power, of respecting its careful system of checks and
balances, is greatest precisely when the temptation to flout them is strong-est.
The enemies of freedomhave made their horrifying statement already.
By demonstrating a commitment to the core ideals of a constitutional
republic, the defenders of freedom now have an opportunity to make
theirs. This Handbook provides the policy vocabulary from which that
statement can be constructed. In these pages, our scholars survey the
major issues confronting the 108th Congress and provide concrete recom-mendations
with the goal of preserving both the security to which Ameri-cans
are entitled and the freedom that serves as a beacon to the world
and a reproach to our enemies.
Suggested Readings
Bastiat, Frederic. The Law. 1850. Irvington, N. Y.: Foundation for Economic Educa-tion, 1998.
Boaz, David. Libertarianism: A Primer. New York: Free Press, 1997. Brooks, David L., ed. From Magna Carta to the Constitution: Documents in the Struggle
for Liberty. San Francisco: Fox & Wilkes, 1993.
Constitution of the United States of America. Crane, Edward H. Defending Civil Society. Cato's Letter no. 8. Washington: Cato
Institute, 1994. Epstein, Richard. Simple Rules for a Complex World. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard Univer-sity
Press, 1995. Friedman, Milton. Capitalism and Freedom. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962.
Friedman, Milton, and Rose D. Friedman. The Tyranny of the Status Quo. San Diego: Harcourt Brace, 1984.
Higgs, Robert. Crisis and Leviathan: Critical Episodes in the Growth of American Government. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1987.
Murray, Charles. In Pursuit: Of Happiness and Good Government. New York: Simon & Schuster, 1988.
—Prepared by Edward H. Crane and David Boaz
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2. Limited Government and the Rule of Law
Congress should
live up to its constitutional obligations and cease the practice
of delegating legislative powers to administrative agencies; legislation should be passed by Congress, not by unelected
administration officials; before voting on any proposed act, ask whether that exercise
of power is authorized by the Constitution, which enumerates the powers of Congress;
exercise its constitutional authority to approve only those
appointees to federal judgeships who will take seriously the constitutional limitations on the powers of both states and the
federal government; and pass and send to the states for their approval a constitutional
amendment limiting senators to two terms in office and repre-sentatives to three terms, in order to return the legislature to
citizen legislators.
Limited government is one of the greatest accomplishments of humanity.
It is imperfectly enjoyed by only a portion of the human race, and, where
it is enjoyed, its tenure is ever precarious. The experience of the 20th
century is surely witness to the insecurity of constitutional government
and to the need for courage in achieving it and vigilance in maintaining it.
Advocates of limited government are not anti-government per se, as
some people would charge. Rather, they are hostile to concentrations of
coercive power and to the arbitrary use of power against right. With a deep
appreciation for the lessons of history and the dangers of unconstrained
government, they are for constitutionally limited government, with the
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delegated authority and means to protect our rights, but not so powerful
as to destroy or negate them.
The American system was established to provide limited government.
The independent existence of the United States was based on certain truths:
that all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with
certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the
Pursuit of Happiness— That to secure these Rights, Governments are insti-tuted
among Men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the
Governed, that whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive
of these Ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to
institute new Government, laying its Foundation on such Principles, and
organizing its Powers in such Form, as to them shall seem most likely to
effect their Safety and Happiness.
On this foundation the American Founders established a system of govern-ment
based on delegated, enumerated, and thus limited powers.
The American Founders did not pluck these truths out of thin air, nor
did they simply invent the principles of American government. They drew
from their knowledge of thousands of years of human history, during
which many peoples struggled for liberty and limited government. There
were both defeats and victories along the way. The results were distilled
in the founding documents of the American experiment in limited govern-ment:
the Declaration of Independence, the Articles of Confederation, the
state constitutions, and the Constitution of the United States.
The American Founders were careful students of history. It was Thomas
Jefferson, in his influential A Summary View of the Rights of British
America, prepared in 1774, who noted that '' history has informed us that
bodies of men as well as individuals are susceptible of the spirit of
tyranny. '' Another Founder, Patrick Henry, devoted great attention to the
study of history. He summed up the importance of history thus: '' I have
but one lamp by which my feet are guided, and that is the lamp of
experience. I know of no way of judging the future but by the past. ''
History— the lamp of experience— is indispensable to understanding and
defending the liberty of the individual under constitutionally limited, repre-sentative
government.
Through the study of history the Americans learned about the division
of power among judicial, legislative, and executive branches; about federal-ism;
about checks and balances among divided powers; about redress and
representation; and about the right of resistance, made effective by the
legal right to bear arms, an ancient right of free persons. Liberty and
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limited government were not invented in 1776; they were reaffirmed and
strengthened. The American Revolution set the stage for the benefits of
liberty and limited government to be extended to all. As John Figgis,
professor of modern history at Cambridge University, noted at the begin-ning
of the 20th century:
The sonorous phrases of the Declaration of Independence . . . are not an
original discovery, they are the heirs of all the ages, the depository of the
emotions and the thoughts of seventy generations of culture.
The roots of the history of limited government stretch far back, to the
establishment of the principle of the higher law by the ancient Hebrews
and by the Greek philosophers. The story of the Golden Calf in the Book
of Exodus and the investigations of nature by Aristotle both established—
in very different ways— the principle of the higher law. Law is not merely
an expression of will or power; it is based on transcendent principles. The
legislator is as bound by law as is the subject or citizen; no one is above
the law.
Many strands have been entwined to form the fabric of liberty:
The struggle between church and state, which was put into high gear
in the Latin West by Pope Gregory VII in the 11th century under
the motto, '' freedom of the church. '' That movement, which created
an institutional distinction between the church and the secular authori-ties,
was the first major '' privatization'' of a previously state-owned
industry (the church) and provided the foundation for such important
institutions as the rule of law and legal accountability, federalism,
and the independent and self-governing associations that make up
civil society.
The growth of civil society in the self-governing chartered towns of
Europe, in which the guiding principle was '' city air makes one
free. '' The independent cities of Europe were the seedbeds of modern
civil society— of the market economy, of personal liberty, and of the
security of person and property.
The fixing of limits on the powers of monarchs and executives through
written constitutions. The Magna Carta of 1215 is the most memorable
of those documents to inheritors of the Anglo-Saxon political tradition.
It included the requirement that taxes could not be imposed without
the consent of the '' general council of the realm, '' which provided
the origin of the English parliament, as well as other very specific
limitations on the king's power, including the stipulations that no
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one be imprisoned or outlawed or exiled or his estate seized '' except
by the lawful judgment of his peers or the law of the land'' and that
'' merchants shall have safe conduct in and out of England. '' That
was the precursor of the Petition of Right of 1628, the Bill of Rights of
1689, the American Declaration of Independence, and the American
Constitution and Bill of Rights.
Those various movements reinforced each other in a multitude of ways.
The assertion of the freedom of the church and even of its supremacy
over the secular powers was bound up with the idea of the higher law,
by which all are judged— emperor, pope, and peasant alike. As legal
scholar Henry Bracton, a judge during the reign of Henry III, noted of
the royal authority, '' The law makes him king. Let the king therefore give
to the law what the law gives to him, dominion and power; for there is
no king where will, and not law, bears rule. '' Were the king to consider
himself above the law, it was the job of the king's council— the precursor
of parliament— to rein him in: '' if the king were without a bridle, that is,
the law, they ought to put a bridle upon him. '' Not only was the nascent
parliament above the king; the law was above the parliament, as Sir
Edward Coke noted in the 17th century:
when an act of Parliament is against common right and reason, or repugnant,
or impossible to be performed, the common law will controul it, and adjudge
such Act to be void.
The supremacy of the law over the exercise of power is a hallmark of
the Western legal tradition. The rule of law is not satisfied by merely
formal or ceremonial exercises, such as the publication of edicts in barely
understandable form, whether in the archaic '' Law French'' of the king's
courts or the pages of the Federal Register; the laws must be understandable
and actually capable of being followed.
There was also widespread recognition of the principle of reciprocity
between the holders of power and the general populace. Rights were
spelled out in contractual form in constitutions and charters. Those rights
were not gifts from the powerful, which could be taken away on a whim,
but something on which one could take a stand. Tied up in the notion of
a chartered right was the ancillary right to defend that right, even to the
point of resistance with force of arms. The higher law, reciprocity and
mutuality of obligations, written charters of rights, the right to be consulted
on policy and to grant or refuse one's consent, and the right of resistance
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in defense of those rights are the foundations of constitutionally limited
government. They were won over many centuries at great sacrifice.
Just how precious that heritage is can be gleaned from comparing it
with the history of Russia, where, until very recently, there was no reciproc-ity
between rulers and ruled and no independent power able to challenge
the rulers. The principality of Muscovy and its successors were despotic
to a high degree, with no charters of liberty, no power higher than the
tsar (or his successor, the Communist Party), no limits on power— in
effect, no law. As Harvard University historian Richard Pipes noted in
his book Russia under the Old Regime, '' There is no evidence in medieval
Russia of mutual obligations binding prince and his servitor, and, therefore,
also nothing resembling legal and moral 'rights' of subjects, and little
need for law and courts. '' The immense difficulties in establishing the
rule of law, a system of well-defined and legally secure property, and a
market economy are testimony to the great and vital importance of building
on a tradition of stable, constitutionally limited government. They also
remind us how important it is for us to maintain our heritage of limited
government and the rule of law.
The struggle for limited government was a struggle of liberty against
power. The demands for religious liberty and the protection of property
were fused in the heroic resistance of the Netherlands to the Empire of
Spain in their great revolt. The Dutch inspired the English to rise up against
the Stuart kings, who sought to fasten upon the English the absolutism that
had made such headway on the Continent. The American Revolution was
one link in a long chain of revolutions for liberty. The historian John
Lothrop Motley opened his magisterial history The Rise of the Dutch
Republic by connecting the Dutch Republic with the United States of
America:
The rise of the Dutch Republic must ever be regarded as one of the leading
events of modern times.... The maintenance of the right by the little
provinces of Holland and Zealand in the sixteenth, by Holland and England
united in the seventeenth, and by the United States of America in the
eighteenth centuries, forms but a single chapter in the great volume of
human fate; for the so-called revolutions of Holland, England, and America,
are all links of one chain.
Motley continued:
For America the spectacle is one of still deeper import. The Dutch Republic
originated in the opposition of the rational elements of human nature to
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sacerdotal dogmatism and persecution— in the courageous resistance of
historical and chartered liberty to foreign despotism.
The Dutch, like the British and the Americans after them, became a
shining example of what was possible when people were free: prosperity
was possible without the guiding hand of the king and his bureaucrats;
social harmony was possible without enforced religious conformity; law
and government were possible without an unlimited and absolute
sovereign.
The story of the attempts to institute absolutism in the Netherlands and
in England was well known by the American Founders, who were, after
all, British colonists. One cannot understand the American attempt to
institute limited, representative government without understanding the his-tory
of England. What they were struggling against was the principle that
the powers of the state are '' plenary, '' that they fill up the whole space
of power. King James I of England (then King James VI of Scotland)
had written in 1598 that '' the King is above the law, as both the author
and giver of strength thereto. '' In 1610 James made A Speech to the Lords
and Commons of the Parliament at White-Hall in which he railed against
the notions of popular consent and the rule of law and stated that '' as to
dispute what God may do is blasphemy . . . so it is sedition in subjects
to dispute what a king may do in the height of his power. ''
In other words, there are no limits to power. Distinct echoes of that
view are still heard today. For example, the solicitor general of the United
States, Drew Days, arguing in the case of United States v. Lopez before
the Supreme Court, was unable to identify a single act of Congress,
other than those expressly prohibited by the Constitution, that would be
impermissible under the Clinton administration's expansive view of the
Commerce Clause. Solicitor Days contended that the powers of Congress
are plenary, that is, unlimited, unless, perhaps, specifically prohibited.
That all-too-common view turns the notion of limited government on its
head. Limited government means that government is limited both to the
exercise of its delegated powers and in the means it can employ, which
must be both '' necessary and proper. '' The English Revolution of 1640,
the Glorious Revolution of 1688, and the American Revolution of 1776
were fought precisely to combat unlimited government. What Americans
need is not unlimited government, as Days proposed, but limited govern-ment
under law, exercising delegated and enumerated powers. That is
how the equal liberties of citizens are protected. As the philosopher John
Locke, himself an active participant in the struggles for limited government
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in Britain and the primary inspiration of the American revolutionaries,
argued in his Second Treatise on Government:
The end of Law is not to abolish or restrain, but to preserve and enlarge
Freedom: For in all the states of created beings capable of Laws, where
there is no Law, there is no Freedom. For Liberty is to be free from restraint
and violence from others, which cannot be, where there is no Law: But
Freedom is not, as we are told, A Liberty for every Man to do what he
lists: (For who could be free, when every other Man's Humour might
domineer over him?) But a Liberty to dispose, and order, as he lists, his
Person, Actions, Possessions, and his whole Property, within the Allowance
of those Laws under which he is; and therein not to be subject to the
arbitrary Will of another, but freely follow his own.
The American experiment in limited government generated a degree
of liberty and prosperity that was virtually unimaginable only a few
centuries before. That experiment revealed flaws, of course, none of which
was more striking and repugnant than the toleration of slavery, or '' man-stealing,
'' as it was called by its libertarian opponents, for it deprived an
individual of his property in his own person. That particular evil was
eliminated by the Thirteenth Amendment to the Constitution, showing the
self-correcting nature and basic resilience of the American constitutional
system, which could survive such a cataclysm as the Civil War.
Other flaws, however, have been revealed or have surfaced since.
Among them are the following:
An erosion of the basic principles of federalism, as the federal govern-ment
has consistently encroached on the authority of the states. Fed-eral
criminalization of acts that are already criminalized by the states,
for example, usurps state authority (as well as circumventing— opin-ions
of the Supreme Court notwithstanding— the prohibition of dou-ble
jeopardy in the Fifth Amendment to Constitution: '' nor shall any
person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy
of life or limb''). An even more striking contemporary example of
the overreach of federal law is the continued exercise of federal
controls over marijuana use in the nine states that have broken with
federal law and allow medical use of that drug. The Tenth Amendment
is quite explicit on this point: '' The powers not delegated to the
United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States,
are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people. ''
Violation of the separation of powers between the various branches
of government. In Article I, section 8, for example, the Constitution
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explicitly reserves the power to declare war to the Congress, a power
that the Congress has allowed to be usurped by the executive branch
and which it should retake to itself.
Failure of the legislative branch to fulfill its responsibilities when it
delegates its legislative powers to administrative agencies of the
executive branch, such as the Food and Drug Administration and the
Federal Trade Commission. In addition to violating the Constitution,
that has led to the erosion of the rule of law, as such administrative
agencies have burdened the population with an unimaginably complex
welter of edicts; the Federal Register ran 64,431 pages in 2001,
reflecting a degree of minute regulation that is unreasonable and
burdensome and that virtually guarantees that any citizen involved
in a commercial transaction, for example, will run afoul of some part
of it, no matter how well intentioned or scrupulous he or she may
be. Such a situation is an invitation to the arbitrary exercise of power,
rather than the application of law. That illegal delegation of powers is
an abdication of the representative function described in the Federalist
Papers and elsewhere by the Founders. Members of Congress are
thereby converted from representatives of their constituents into
'' fixers, '' who offer to intercede on behalf of constituents with the
agencies that are illegally exercising the authority of the legislative
branch. Thus, members of Congress can avoid responsibility for
onerous laws but can take credit for gaining special treatment for
their constituents. That system may be thoroughly congenial to the
interests of the existing officeholders of both the executive and the
legislative branches, but it is directly contrary to the doctrine of
the separation of powers and to the very concept of representative
government.
Inattention to the important role of the federal judiciary as a check
on arbitrary and unauthorized exercises of power. Especially since
the Court-packing '' constitutional revolution of 1937, '' there has
been too little attention by the federal judiciary— and by the Congress
in ratifying judicial nominees— to fulfilling the role of the courts in
enforcing constitutional restraints on both the federal and the state
governments, as set out in Article III, section 2, of the Constitution.
Sections of the Constitution that have suffered from relative neglect
include Article I, section 1 ('' All legislative Powers herein granted
shall be vested in a Congress of the United States''); Article I, section
8 (enumerating and thus limiting the powers of Congress); Article I,
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Limited Government and the Rule of Law
section 10 ('' No state shall . . . pass any . . . Law impairing the
Obligation of Contracts''); the Fifth Amendment ('' No person shall
be . . . deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of
law; nor shall private property be taken for public use without just
compensation''); the Ninth Amendment ('' The enumeration in the
Constitution of certain rights shall not be construed to deny or dispar-age
others retained by the people''); the Tenth Amendment ('' The
powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor
prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively,
or to the people''); and the Fourteenth Amendment ('' No state shall
make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immuni-ties
of citizens of the United States''). Although the First and Four-teenth
Amendments have indeed been the source of significant judicial
activity, the Court has not consistently applied the prohibitions of
the First Amendment to either commercial speech or political speech
(the latter in the context of campaign finance), nor has the Court
rectified the novel (and specious) distinction between personal liber-ties
and economic liberties drawn by Justice Harlan F. Stone in United
States v. Carolene Products Co. (1938).
The failure to pass a constitutional amendment limiting members of
the Senate to two terms and members of the House of Representatives
to three terms. Just as the president is limited in the number of
terms he or she can serve, so should be the other elected branch of
government, to guarantee the rotation in office that the Founders
believed essential to popular government.
Those flaws can, however, be corrected. What is needed is the courage
to place the health of the constitutional order and the future of the American
system above short-term political gain. The original American Founders
were willing '' to mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes,
and our sacred Honor. '' Nothing even remotely approaching that would
be necessary for today's members of Congress to renew and restore the
American system of constitutionally limited government.
In defending the separation of powers established by the Constitution,
James Madison clearly tied the arrangement to the goal of limiting govern-ment
power:
It may be a reflection on human nature that such devices should be necessary
to control the abuses of government. But what is government itself but the
greatest of all reflections on human nature? If men were angels, no govern-17
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ment would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external
nor internal controls would be necessary. In framing a government which
is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty lies in this:
you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the
next instance oblige it to control itself. A dependence on the people is, no
doubt, the primary control on the government; but experience has taught
mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions.
What is needed for the survival of limited government is a renewal of
both of the forces described by Madison as controls on government:
dependence on the people, in the form of an informed citizenry jealous
of its rights and ever vigilant against unconstitutional or otherwise unwar-ranted
exercises of power, and officeholders who take seriously their oaths
of office and accept the responsibilities they entail.
Suggested Readings
Berman, Harold. Law and Revolution: The Formation of the Western Legal Tradition. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1983.
Boaz, David. Libertarianism: A Primer. New York: Free Press, 1997. Boaz, David, ed. The Libertarian Reader: Classic and Contemporary Readings from
Lao-tzu to Milton Friedman. New York: Free Press, 1997.
Bramsted, E. K., and K. J. Melhuish, eds. Western Liberalism: A History in Documents from Locke to Croce. New York: Longman, 1978.
Brooks, David L., ed. From Magna Carta to the Constitution: Documents in the Struggle for Liberty. San Francisco: Fox & Wilkes, 1993.
Ely, James W. Jr. The Guardian of Every Other Right: A Constitutional History of Property Rights. New York: Oxford University Press, 1998.
Epstein, Richard A. Simple Rules for a Complex World. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1997.
. Takings: Private Property and the Right of Eminent Domain. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1985.
Hamilton, Alexander, James Madison, and John Jay, The Federalist Papers. New York: Mentor, 1961.
Hayek, F. A. The Constitution of Liberty. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1960. Higgs, Robert. Crisis and Leviathan: Critical Episodes in the Growth of American
Government. New York: Oxford University Press, 1987.
Jefferson, Thomas. '' A Summary View of the Rights of British North America. '' In The Portable Jefferson. New York: Penguin Books, 1977.
Locke, John. Two Treatises of Government. 1690. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988.
Spencer, Herbert. Political Writings. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994. Storing, Herbert, ed. The Anti-Federalist. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1985.
—Prepared by Tom G. Palmer
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3. Congress, the Courts, and the Constitution
Congress should
encourage constitutional debate in the nation by engaging in
constitutional debate in Congress, as was urged by the House Constitutional Caucus during the 104th Congress;
enact nothing without first consulting the Constitution for proper
authority and then debating that question on the floors of the House and the Senate;
move toward restoring constitutional government by carefully
returning power wrongly taken over the years from the states and the people; and
reject the nomination of judicial candidates who do not appreci-ate
that the Constitution is a document of delegated, enumer-ated, and thus limited powers.
Introduction
In a chapter devoted to advising members of Congress about their
responsibilities under the Constitution, one hardly knows where to begin—
so far has Congress taken us, over the 20th century, from constitutional
government. James Madison, the principal author of the Constitution,
assured us in Federalist no. 45 that the powers of the federal government
under that document were '' few and defined. '' No one believes that
describes Washington's powers today. That raises fundamental questions
about the constitutional legitimacy of modern American government.
For a while at century's end, after the realigning election of 1994, it
looked like Congress was at last going to rethink its seemingly inexorable
push toward ever-larger government. In fact, the 104th Congress saw the
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creation in the House of a 100-strong Constitutional Caucus dedicated to
promoting the restoration of limited constitutional government. And shortly
thereafter, President Clinton announced that the era of big government
was over. But the spirit of that Congress has waned over time. By the
107th Congress, respect for constitutional limits on congressional power
was all but gone.
The principles of the matter have not gone away, however; nor of
course has the Constitution itself. It is still the law of the land, however
little Congress heeds it. And the moral, political, and economic implications
of limited constitutional government have not changed either. That kind
of government is the foundation for liberty, prosperity, and the vision of
equality that most people cherish. Indeed, that insight has been gaining
ground around the world as the Leviathans of the 20th century have aged
or crumbled. Yet all too many members of Congress seem still to believe
that the good life is brought about primarily by government programs,
not by individuals acting in their private capacities. And they believe
equally that the Constitution authorizes them to enact such programs.
In growing numbers, however, Americans know better. Below the level
that polling usually reaches, they have come to see that government rarely
solves the problems it purports to solve; in fact, it usually makes those
problems worse. More deeply, they have come to understand that a life
dependent on government is too often not only impoverishing but impover-ished.
It is no accident, therefore, that the electoral trends of the past
quarter of a century have been in the direction of less government, even
if Washington has been slow to appreciate that message.
In moving from a world in which government is expected to solve our
problems to a world in which individuals, families, and communities
assume that responsibility— indeed, take up that challenge— the basic
questions are how much and how fast to reduce government. Those are
not questions about how to make government run better— government
will always be plagued by waste, fraud, and abuse— but about the funda-mental
role of government in this nation.
How Much to Reduce Government
The first of those questions— how much to reduce government— would
seem on first impression to be a matter of policy; yet in America, if we
take the Constitution seriously, it is not for the most part a policy question,
a question about what we may or may not want to do. For the Founding
Fathers thought long and hard about the proper role of government in our
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Congress, the Courts, and the Constitution
lives, and they set forth their thoughts in a document that explicitly
enumerates the powers of the federal government.
Thus, setting aside for the moment all practical concerns, the Constitu-tion
tells us as a matter of first principle how much to reduce government
by telling us, first, what powers the federal government in fact has and,
second, how governments at all levels must exercise their powers— by
respecting the rights of the people.
That means that if a federal power or federal program is not authorized
by the Constitution, it is illegitimate. Given the present size of government,
that is a stark conclusion, to be sure. But it flows quite naturally from the
Tenth Amendment, the final statement in the Bill of Rights, which says,
'' The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor
prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or
to the people. '' In a nutshell, the Constitution establishes a government
of delegated, enumerated, and thus limited powers. As the Federalist
Papers make clear, the Constitution was written not simply to empower
the federal government but to limit it as well.
Since the Progressive Era, however, the politics of government as
problem solver has dominated our public discourse. And since the collapse
of the Supreme Court during the New Deal, following President Roose-velt's
notorious Court-packing scheme, the Court has abetted that view
by standing the Constitution on its head, turning it into a document of
effectively unenumerated and hence unlimited powers. (For a fuller discus-sion
of the Constitution and the history of its interpretation, see Chapter
3 of theCato Handbook for Congress: 104th Congress.)
Indeed, limits on government today come largely from political and
budgetary rather than from constitutional considerations. Thus, it has not
been because of any perceived lack of constitutional authority that govern-ment
in recent years has failed to undertake a program, when that has
happened, but because of practical limits on the power of government to
tax and borrow— and even those limits have failed in times of economic
prosperity. That is not the mark of a limited, constitutional republic. It is
the mark of a parliamentary system, limited only by periodic elections.
The Founding Fathers could have established such a system, of course.
They did not. But we have allowed those marks of a parliamentary system
to supplant the system they gave us. To restore truly limited government,
therefore, we have to do more than define the issues as political or
budgetary. We have to go to the heart of the matter and raise the underlying
constitutional questions. In a word, we have to ask the most fundamental
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question of all: does the government have the authority, the constitutional
authority, to do what it is doing?
How Fast to Reduce Government
As a practical matter, however, before Congress or the courts can relimit
government as it was meant to be limited by the Constitution, they need
to take seriously the problems posed by the present state of public debate
on the subject. It surely counts for something that a substantial number
of Americans— to say nothing of the organs of public opinion— have little
apprehension of or appreciation for the constitutional limits on activist
government. Thus, in addressing the question of how fast to reduce govern-ment,
we have to recognize that the Supreme Court, after more than 65
years of arguing otherwise, is hardly in a position, by itself, to relimit
government in the far-reaching way a properly applied Constitution
requires. But neither does Congress at this point have sufficient moral
authority, even if it wanted to, to end tomorrow the vast array of programs
it has enacted over the years with insufficient constitutional authority.
For either Congress or the Court to be able to do fully what should be
done, therefore, a proper foundation must first be laid. In essence, the
climate of opinion must be such that a sufficiently large portion of the
American public stands behind the changes that are undertaken. When
enough people come forward to ask— indeed, to demand— that govern-ment
limit itself to the powers it is given in the Constitution, thereby
freeing individuals, families, and communities to solve their own problems,
we will know we are on the right track.
Fortunately, a change in the climate of opinion on such basic questions
has been under way for some time now. The debate today is very different
than it was only a decade ago, much less a quarter of a century ago. But
there is a good deal more to be done before Congress and the courts are
able to move in the right direction in any far-reaching way, much less
say that they have restored constitutional government in America. To
continue the process, then, Congress should take the lead in the follow-ing
ways.
Encourage Constitutional Debate in the Nation by Engaging in Constitutional Debate in Congress, As Was Urged by the
House Constitutional Caucus during the 104th Congress
Under the leadership of House freshmen like J. D. Hayworth and John
Shadegg of Arizona, Sam Brownback of Kansas, and Bob Barr of Georgia,
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Congress, the Courts, and the Constitution
together with a few senior congressmen like Richard Pombo of California,
an informal Constitutional Caucus was established in the '' radical'' 104th
Congress. Its purpose was to encourage constitutional debate in Congress
and the nation and, in time, to restore constitutional government. Unfortu-nately,
the caucus has been moribund since then. It needs to be revived—
along with the spirit of the 104th Congress— and its work needs to be
expanded.
The caucus was created in response to the belief that the nation had
strayed very far from its constitutional roots and that Congress, absent
leadership from elsewhere in government, should begin addressing the
problem. By itself, of course, neither the caucus nor the entire Congress
can solve the problem. To be sure, in a reversal of all human experience,
Congress in a day could agree to limit itself to its enumerated powers and
then roll back the countless programs it has enacted by exceeding that
authority. But it would take authoritative opinions from the Supreme Court,
reversing a substantial body of largely post– New Deal decisions, to embed
those restraints in '' constitutional law''— even if they have been embedded
in the Constitution from the outset, the Court's modern readings of the
document notwithstanding.
The Goals of the Constitutional Caucus
The ultimate goal of the caucus and Congress, then, should be to
encourage the Court to reach such decisions. But history teaches, as noted
above, that the Court does not operate entirely in a vacuum, that to some
degree public opinion is the precursor and seedbed of its decisions. Thus,
the more immediate goal of the caucus should be to influence the debate
in the nation by influencing the debate in Congress. To do that, it is not
necessary or even desirable, in the present climate, that every member of
Congress be a member of the caucus— however worthy that end might
ultimately be— but it is necessary that those who join the caucus be
committed to its basic ends. And it is necessary that members establish
a clear agenda for reaching those ends.
To reduce the problem to its essence, every day members of Congress
are besieged by requests to enact countless measures to solve endless
problems. Indeed, listening to much of the recent campaign debate, one
might conclude that no problem is too personal or too trivial to warrant
the attention of the federal government. Yet most of the '' problems''
Congress spends most of its time addressing— from health care to day
care to retirement security to economic competition— are simply the per-23
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sonal and economic problems of life that individuals, families, and firms,
not governments, should be addressing. What is more, as a basic point
of constitutional doctrine, under a constitution like ours, interpreted as
ours was meant to be interpreted, there is little authority for government
at any level to address such problems.
Properly understood and used, then, the Constitution can be a valuable
ally in the efforts of the caucus and Congress to reduce the size and scope
of government. For in the minds and hearts of most Americans, it remains
a revered document, however little it may be understood by a substantial
number of them.
The Constitutional Vision
If the Constitution is to be thus used, however, the principal misunder-standing
that surrounds it must be recognized and addressed. In particular,
the modern idea that the Constitution, without further amendment, is an
infinitely elastic document that allows government to grow to meet public
demands of whatever kind must be challenged. More Americans than
presently do must come to appreciate that the Founding Fathers, who
were keenly aware of the expansive tendencies of government, wrote the
Constitution precisely to check that kind of thinking and that possibility.
To be sure, the Founders meant for government to be our servant, not
our master, but they meant it to serve us in a very limited way— by
securing our rights, as the Declaration of Independence says, and by doing
those few other things that government does best, as spelled out in the
Constitution.
In all else, we were meant to be free— to plan and live our own lives,
to solve our own problems, which is what freedom is all about. Some
may characterize that vision as tantamount to saying, '' You're on your
own, '' but that kind of response simply misses the point. In America
individuals, families, and organizations have never been '' on their own''
in the most important sense. They have always been members of communi-ties,
of civil society, where they could live their lives and solve their
problems by following a few simple rules about individual initiative and
responsibility, respect for property and promise, and charity toward the
few who need help from others. Massive government planning and pro-grams
have upset that natural order of things— less so in America than
elsewhere, but very deeply all the same.
Those are the issues that need to be discussed, both in human and in
constitutional terms. We need, as a people, to rethink our relationship to
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Congress, the Courts, and the Constitution
government. We need to ask not what government can do for us but what
we can do for ourselves and, where necessary, for others— not through
government but apart from government, as private citizens and organiza-tions.
That is what the Constitution was written to enable. It empowers
government in a very limited way. It empowers people— by leaving them
free— in every other way.
To proclaim and eventually secure that vision of a free people, the
Constitutional Caucus should reconstitute itself and rededicate itself to
that end at the beginning of the 108th Congress and the beginning of
every Congress thereafter. Standing apart from Congress, the caucus should
nonetheless be both of and above Congress— as the constitutional con-science
of Congress. Every member of Congress, before taking office,
swears to support the Constitution— hardly a constraining oath, given the
modern Court's open-ended reading of the document. Members of the
caucus should dedicate themselves to the deeper meaning of that oath.
They should support the Constitution the Framers gave us, as amended
by subsequent generations, not as '' amended'' by the Court's expansive
interpretations.
Encouraging Debate
Acting together, the members of the caucus could have a major impact
on the course of public debate in this nation— not least, by virtue of their
numbers. What is more, there is political safety in those numbers. As
Benjamin Franklin might have said, no single member of Congress is
likely to be able to undertake the task of restoring constitutional government
on his own, for in the present climate he would surely be hanged, politically,
for doing so. But if the caucus hangs together, the task will be made more
bearable and enjoyable— and a propitious outcome made more likely.
On the agenda of the caucus, then, should be those specific undertakings
that will best stir debate and thereby move the climate of opinion. Drawn
together by shared understandings, and unrestrained by the need for serious
compromise, the members of the caucus are free to chart a principled
course and employ principled means, which they should do.
They might begin, for example, by surveying opportunities for constitu-tional
debate in Congress, then making plans to seize those opportunities.
Clearly, when new bills are introduced, or old ones are up for reauthoriza-tion,
an opportunity is presented to debate constitutional questions. But
even before that, when plans are discussed in party sessions, members
should raise constitutional issues. Again, the caucus might study the costs
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and benefits of eliminating clearly unconstitutional programs, the better
to determine which can be eliminated most easily and quickly.
Above all, the caucus should look for strategic opportunities to employ
constitutional arguments. Too often, members of Congress fail to appreci-ate
that if they take a principled stand against a seemingly popular pro-gram—
and state their case well— they can seize the moral high ground
and prevail ultimately over those who are seen in the end to be more
politically craven.
All of that will stir constitutional debate— which is just the point. For
too long in Congress that debate has been dead, replaced by the often
dreary budget debate. This nation was not established by men with green
eyeshades. It was established by men who understood the basic character
of government and the basic right to be free. That debate needs to be
revived. It needs to be heard not simply in the courts— where it is twisted
through modern '' constitutional law''— but in Congress as well.
Enact Nothing without First Consulting the Constitution for Proper Authority and Then Debating That Question on the
Floors of the House and the Senate
It would hardly seem necessary to ask Congress, before it enacts any
measure, to cite its constitutional authority for doing so. After all, is that
not simply part of what it means, as a member of Congress, to swear to
support the Constitution? And if Congress's powers are limited by virtue
of being enumerated, presumably there are many things Congress has no
authority to do, however worthy those things might otherwise be. Yet so
far have we strayed from constitutional thinking that such a requirement
is today treated perfunctorily— when it is not ignored altogether.
The most common perfunctory citations— captured ordinarily in consti-tutional
boilerplate— are to the General Welfare and Commerce Clauses
of the Constitution. It is no small irony that both those clauses were written
as shields against overweening government; yet today they are swords of
federal power.
The General Welfare Clause
The General Welfare Clause of Article I, section 8, of the Constitution
was meant to serve as a brake on the power of Congress to tax and spend
in furtherance of its enumerated powers or ends: the spending that attended
the exercise of an enumerated power had to be for the general welfare,
not for the welfare of particular parties or sections of the nation.
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Congress, the Courts, and the Constitution
That view, held by Madison, Jefferson, and most others, stands in
marked contrast to the view of Hamilton— that the Constitution established
an independent power to tax and spend for the general welfare. But as
South Carolina's William Drayton observed on the floor of the House in
1828, Hamilton's view would make a mockery of the doctrine of enumer-ated
powers, the centerpiece of the Constitution, rendering the enumeration
of Congress's other powers superfluous: whenever Congress wanted to
do something it was barred from doing by the absence of a power to do
it, it could simply declare the act to be serving the '' general welfare'' and
get out from under the limits imposed by enumeration.
That, unfortunately, is what happens today. In 1936 the Court came
down, almost in passing, on Hamilton's side, declaring that there is an
independent power to tax and spend for the general welfare. Then in 1937,
in upholding the constitutionality of the new Social Security program, the
Court completed the job when it stated the Hamiltonian view not as dicta
but as doctrine, then reminded Congress of the constraints imposed by
the word '' general, '' but added that the Court would not police that
restraint; rather, Congress would be left to police itself, the very Congress
that was distributing money from the Treasury with ever greater particular-ity.
Since that time the relatively modest redistributive schemes that
preceded the New Deal have grown exponentially until today they are
everywhere.
The Commerce Clause
The Commerce Clause of the Constitution, which grants Congress the
power to regulate '' commerce among the states, '' was also written primar-ily
as a shield— against overweening state power. Under the Articles of
Confederation, states had erected tariffs and other protectionist measures
that impeded the free flow of commerce among the states. Indeed, the
need to break the logjam that resulted was one of the principal reasons
for the call for a convention in Philadelphia in 1787. To address the
problem, the Framers gave Congress the power to regulate— or '' make
regular''— commerce among the states. It was thus meant to be a power
primarily to facilitate free trade.
That functional account of the commerce power is consistent with
the original understanding of the power, the 18th-century meaning of
'' regulate, '' and the structural limits entailed by the doctrine of enumerated
powers. Yet today the functional account is all but unknown. Following
decisions by the Court in 1937 and 1942, Congress has been able to regulate
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anything that even '' affects'' interstate commerce, which in principle is
everything. Far from regulating to ensure the free flow of commerce
among the states, much of that regulation, for all manner of social and
economic purposes, actually frustrates the free flow of commerce.
As the explosive growth of the modern redistributive state has taken
place almost entirely under the General Welfare Clause, so, too, the growth
of the modern regulatory state has occurred almost entirely under the
Commerce Clause. That raises a fundamental question, of course: if the
Framers had meant for Congress to be able to do virtually anything it
wanted under those two simple clauses alone, why did they bother to
enumerate Congress's other powers, or bother to defend the doctrine of
enumerated powers throughout the Federalist Papers? Had they meant
that, those efforts would have been pointless.
Lopez and Its Aftermath
Today, as noted above, congressional citations to the General Welfare
and Commerce Clauses usually take the form of perfunctory boilerplate.
When it wants to regulate some activity, Congress makes a bow to the
doctrine of enumerated powers by claiming that it has made findings that
the activity at issue '' affects'' interstate commerce— say, by preventing
interstate travel. Given those findings, Congress then claims it has authority
to regulate the activity under its power to regulate commerce among
the states.
Thus, when the 104th Congress was pressed in the summer of 1996 to
do something about what looked at the time like a wave of church arsons
in the South, it sought to broaden the already doubtful authority of the
federal government to prosecute such acts by determining that church
arsons '' hinder interstate commerce'' and '' impede individuals in moving
interstate. '' Never mind that the prosecution of arson has traditionally
been a state responsibility, there being no general federal police power in
the Constitution. Never mind that church arsons have virtually nothing to
do with interstate commerce, much less with the free flow of goods and
services among the states. The Commerce Clause rationale, set forth in
boilerplate language, was thought by Congress to be sufficient to enable
it to move forward and enact the Church Arson Prevention Act of 1996—
unanimously, no less.
Yet only a year earlier, in the celebrated Lopez case, the Supreme Court
had declared, for the first time in nearly 60 years, that Congress's power
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Congress, the Courts, and the Constitution
under the Commerce Clause has limits. To be sure, the Court raised the
bar against federal regulation only slightly: Congress would have to show
that the activity it wanted to regulate '' substantially'' affected interstate
commerce, leading Justice Thomas to note in his concurrence that the
Court was still a good distance from a proper reading of the clause.
Nevertheless, the decision was widely heralded as a shot across the bow
of Congress. And many in Congress saw it as confirming at last their
own view that the body in which they served was simply out of control,
constitutionally. Indeed, when it passed the act at issue in Lopez, the Gun-Free
School Zones Act of 1990, Congress had not even bothered to cite
any authority under the Constitution. In what must surely be a stroke of
consummate hubris— and disregard for the Constitution— Congress sim-ply
assumed that authority.
But to make matters worse, despite the Lopez ruling— which the
Court reinforced in May 2000 when it found parts of the Violence
Against Women Act unconstitutional on similar grounds— Congress
in September 1996 passed the Gun-Free School Zones Act again.
This time, of course, the boilerplate was included— even as Sen.
Fred Thompson of Tennessee was reminding his colleagues from the
floor of the Senate that the Supreme Court had recently told them
that they '' cannot just have some theoretical basis, some attenuated
basis'' under the Commerce Clause for such an act. The prosecution
of gun possession near schools— like the prosecution of church
arsons, crimes against women, and much else— is very popular, as
state prosecutors well know. But governments can address problems
only if they have authority to do so, not from good intentions alone.
Indeed, the road to constitutional destruction is paved with good
intentions.
Congressional debate on these matters is thus imperative: it is not
enough for Congress simply to say the magic words—'' General Welfare
Clause'' or '' Commerce Clause''— to be home free, constitutionally.
Not every debate will yield satisfying results, as the examples above
illustrate. But if the Constitution is to be kept alive, there must at least
be debate. Over time, good ideas tend to prevail over bad ideas, but
only if they are given voice. The constitutional debate must again be
heard in the Congress of the United States as it was over much of our
nation's history, and it must be heard before bills are enacted. The
American people can hardly be expected to take the Constitution and
its limits on government seriously if their elected representatives do not.
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Move toward Restoring Constitutional Government by Carefully Returning Power Wrongly Taken over the Years
from the States and the People
If Congress should enact no new legislation without grounding its
authority to do so securely in the Constitution, so too should it begin
repealing legislation not so grounded, legislation that arose by assuming
power that rightly rests with the states or the people. To appreciate how
daunting a task that will be, simply reflect again on Madison's observation
that the powers of the federal government under the Constitution are '' few
and defined. ''
But the magnitude of the task is only one dimension of its difficulty.
Let us be candid: there are many in Congress who will oppose any efforts
to restore constitutional government for any number of reasons, ranging
from the practical to the theoretical. Some see their job as one primarily
of representing the interests of their constituents, especially the short-term
interests reflected in the phrase '' bringing home the bacon. '' Others simply
like big government, whether because of an '' enlightened'' Progressive
Era view of the world or because of a narrower, more cynical interest in
the perquisites of enhanced power. Still others believe sincerely in a
'' living constitution, '' one extreme form of which— the '' democratic''
form— imposes no limit whatsoever on government save for periodic
elections. Finally, there are those who understand the unconstitutional and
hence illegitimate character of much of what government does today but
believe it is too late in the day to do anything about it. All of those people
and others will find reasons to resist the discrete measures that are necessary
to begin restoring constitutional government. Yet, where necessary, their
views will have to be accommodated as the process unfolds.
Maintaining Support for Limited Government
Given the magnitude of the problem, then, and the practical implications
of repealing federal programs, a fair measure of caution is in order. As
the nations of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have learned,
it is relatively easy to get into socialism— just seize all property and labor
and place it under state control— but much harder to get out of it. It is
not simply a matter of returning what was taken, for much has changed
as a result of the taking. People have died and new people have come
along. Public law has replaced private law. And new expectations and
dependencies have arisen and become settled over time. The transition to
freedom that many of those nations are experiencing is what we and many
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other nations around the world today are facing, to a lesser extent, as we
too try to reduce the size and scope of our governments.
As programs are reduced or eliminated, then, care must be taken to do
as little harm as possible— for two reasons at least. First, there is some
sense in which the federal government today, vastly overextended though
it is, stands in a contractual relationship with the American people. That
is a very difficult idea to pin down, however, for once the genuine con-tract—
the Constitution— has broken down, the '' legislative contracts''
that arise to take its place invariably reduce, when parsed, to programs
under which some people have become dependent upon others, although
neither side had a great deal to say directly about the matter at the outset.
Whatever its merits, that contractual view is held by a good part of the
public, especially in the case of so-called middle-class entitlements.
That leads to the second reason why care must be taken in restoring
power to the states and the people, namely, that the task must be undertaken,
as noted earlier, with the support of a substantial portion of the people—
ideally, at the urging of those people. Given the difficulty of convincing
people— including legislators— to act against their relatively short-term
interests, it will take sound congressional judgment about where and when
to move. More important, it will take keen leadership, leadership that is
able to frame the issues in a way that will communicate both the rightness
and the soundness of the decisions that are required.
In exercising that leadership, there is no substitute for keeping '' on
message'' and for keeping the message simple, direct, and clear. The aim,
again, is both freedom and the good society. We need to appreciate how
the vast government programs we have created over the years have actually
reduced the freedom and well-being of all of us— and have undermined
the Constitution besides. Not that the ends served by those programs are
unworthy— few government programs are undertaken for worthless ends.
But individuals, families, private firms, and communities could bring about
most of those ends, voluntarily and at far less cost, if only they were free
to do so— especially if they were free to keep the wherewithal that is
necessary to do so. If individual freedom and individual responsibility are
values we cherish— indeed, are the foundations of the good society— we
must come to appreciate how our massive government programs have
undermined those values and, with that, the good society itself.
Redistributive Programs
Examples of the kinds of programs that should be returned to the states
and the people are detailed elsewhere in this Handbook, but a few are in
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order here. Without question, the most important example of devolution
to come from the '' radical'' 104th Congress was in the area of welfare.
However flawed the final legislation may have been from both a constitu-tional
and a policy perspective, it was still a step in the right direction.
Ultimately, as will be noted below in a more general way, welfare should
not be even a state program. Rather, it should be a matter of private
responsibility, as it was for years in this nation. But the process of getting
the federal government out of the business of charity, for which there is
no authority in the Constitution, has at least begun.
Eventually, that process should be repeated in every other '' entitlement''
area, from individual to institutional to corporate, from Social Security
and Medicare to the National Endowment for the Arts to the Department
of Agriculture's Market Access Program and on and on. Each of those
programs was started for a good reason, to be sure, yet each involves
taking from some to give to others— means that are both wrong and
unconstitutional, to say nothing of monumentally inefficient. Taken
together, they put us all on welfare in one way or another, and we are all
the poorer for it.
Some of those programs will be harder to reduce, phase out, or eliminate
than others, of course. Entitlement programs with large numbers of benefi-ciaries,
for example, will require transition phases to ensure that harm is
minimized and public support is maintained. Other programs, however,
could be eliminated with relatively little harm. Does anyone seriously
doubt that there would be art in America without the National Endowment
for the Arts? Indeed, without the heavy hand of government grant making,
the arts would likely flourish as they did long before the advent of the
NEA— and no one would be made to pay, through his taxes, for art
he abhorred.
It is the transfer programs in the '' symbolic'' area, in fact, that may
be the most important to eliminate first, for they have multiplier effects
reaching well beyond their raw numbers, and those effects are hardly
neutral on the question of reducing the size and scope of government.
The National Endowment for the Arts, the National Endowment for the
Humanities, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the Legal Services
Corporation, and the Department of Education have all proceeded without
constitutional authority— but with serious implications for free speech and
for the cause of limiting government. Not a few critics have pointed to the
heavy hand of government in those symbolic areas. Of equal importance,
however, is the problem of compelled speech: as Jefferson wrote, '' To
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compel a man to furnish contributions of money for the propagation of
opinions which he disbelieves is sinful and tyrannical. '' But on a more
practical note, if Congress is serious about addressing the climate of
opinion in the nation, it will end such programs not simply because they
are without constitutional authority but because they have demonstrated
a relentless tendency over the years in only one direction— toward even
more government. Indeed, one should hardly expect those institutions
to be underwriting programs that advocate less government when they
themselves exist through government.
Regulatory Redistribution
If the redistributive programs that constitute the modern welfare state
are candidates for elimination, so too are many of the regulatory programs
that have arisen under the Commerce Clause. Here, however, care must
be taken not simply from a practical perspective but from a constitutional
perspective as well, for some of those programs may be constitutionally
justified. When read functionally, recall, the Commerce Clause was meant
to enable Congress to ensure that commerce among the states is regular,
and especially to counter state actions that might upset that regularity.
Think of the Commerce Clause as an early North American Free Trade
Agreement, without the heavy hand of '' managed trade'' that often accom-panies
the modern counterpart.
Thus conceived, the Commerce Clause clearly empowers Congress,
through regulation, to override state measures that may frustrate the free
flow of commerce among the states. But it also enables Congress to take
such affirmative measures as may be necessary and proper for facilitating
free trade, such as clarifying rights of trade in uncertain contexts or
regulating the interstate transport of dangerous goods. What the clause
does not authorize, however, is regulation for reasons other than to ensure
the free flow of commerce— the kind of '' managed trade'' that is little
but a thinly disguised transfer program designed to benefit one party at
the expense of another.
Unfortunately, most modern federal regulation falls into that final cate-gory,
whether it concerns employment or health care or insurance or
whatever. In fact, given budgetary constraints on the ability of government
to tax and spend— to take money from some, run it through the Treasury,
then give it to others— the preferred form of transfer today is through
regulation. That puts it '' off budget. '' Thus, when an employer, an insurer,
a lender, or a landlord is required by regulation to do something he would
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otherwise have a right not to do, or not do something he would otherwise
have a right to do, he serves the party benefited by that regulation every
bit as much as if he were taxed to do so, but no tax increase is ever
registered on any public record.
The temptation for Congress to resort to such '' cost-free'' regulatory
redistribution is of course substantial, and the effects are both far-reaching
and perverse. Natural markets are upset as incentives are changed; econo-mies
of scale are skewed as large businesses, better able to absorb the
regulatory burdens, are advantaged over small ones; defensive measures,
inefficient from the larger perspective, are encouraged; and general uncer-tainty,
anathema to efficient markets, is the order of the day. Far from
facilitating free trade, redistributive regulation frustrates it. Far from being
justified by the Commerce Clause, it undermines the very purpose of
the clause.
Federal Crimes
In addition to misusing the commerce power for the purpose of regula-tory
redistribution, Congress has misused that power to create federal
crimes. Thus, a great deal of '' regulation'' has arisen in recent years under
the commerce power that is nothing but a disguised exercise of a police
power that Congress otherwise lacks. As noted earlier, the Gun-Free School
Zones Act, the Church Arson Prevention Act, and the Violence Against
Women Act are examples of legislation passed nominally under the power
of Congress to regulate commerce among the states; but the actions subject
to federal prosecution under those statutes— gun possession, church arson,
and gender-motivated violence, respectively— are ordinarily regulated
under state police power, the power of states, in essence, to '' police'' or
secure our rights. The ruse of regulating them under Congress's commerce
power is made necessary because there is no federal police power enumer-ated
in the Constitution— except as an implication of federal sovereignty
over federal territory or an incidence of some enumerated power.
That ruse should be candidly recognized. Indeed, it is a mark of the
decline of respect for the Constitution that when we sought to fight a war
on liquor earlier in the century we felt it necessary to do so by first
amending the Constitution— there being no power otherwise for such a
federal undertaking. Today, however, when we engage in a war on drugs—
with as much success as we enjoyed in the earlier war— we do so without
as much as a nod to the Constitution.
The Constitution lists three federal crimes: treason, piracy, and counter-feiting.
Yet today there are more than 3,000 federal crimes and perhaps
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300,000 regulations that carry criminal sanctions. Over the years, no faction
in Congress has been immune, especially in an election year, from the
propensity to criminalize all manner of activities, utterly oblivious to the
lack of any constitutional authority for doing so. We should hardly imagine
that the Founders fought a war to free us from a distant tyranny only to
establish a tyranny in Washington, in some ways even more distant from
the citizens it was meant to serve.
Policing the States
If the federal government has often intruded upon the police power of
the states, so too has it often failed in its responsibility under the Fourteenth
Amendment to police the states. Here is an area where federal regulation
has been, if anything, too restrained— yet also unprincipled, oftentimes,
when undertaken.
The Civil War Amendments to the Constitution changed fundamentally
the relationship between the federal government and the states, giving
citizens an additional level of protection, not against federal but against
state oppression— the oppression of slavery, obviously, but much else
besides. Thus, the Fourteenth Amendment prohibits states from abridging
the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; from depriving
any person of life, liberty, or property without due process of law; and
from denying any person the equal protection of the laws. By implication,
section 1 of the amendment gives the courts the power to secure those
guarantees. Section 5 gives Congress the '' power to enforce, by appropriate
legislation, the provisions of this article. ''
As the debate that surrounded the adoption of those amendments makes
clear, the Privileges or Immunities Clause was meant to be the principal
source of substantive rights in the Fourteenth Amendment, and those
rights were meant to include the rights of property, contract, and personal
security— in short, our '' natural liberties, '' as Blackstone had earlier under-stood
that phrase. Unfortunately, in 1873, in the notorious Slaughterhouse
Cases, a bitterly divided Supreme Court essentially eviscerated the Privi-leges
or Immunities Clause. There followed, for nearly a century, the era
of Jim Crow in the South and, for a period stretching to the present,
a Fourteenth Amendment jurisprudence that is as contentious as it is
confused.
Modern liberals have urged that the amendment be used as it was meant
to be used— against state oppression; but they have also urged that it be
used to recognize all manner of '' rights'' that are no part of the theory
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of rights that stands behind the amendment as understood at the time of
ratification. Modern conservatives, partly in reaction, have urged that the
amendment be used far more narrowly than it was meant to be used—
for fear that it might be misused, as it has been.
The role of the judiciary under section 1 of the Fourteenth Amendment
will be discussed below. As for Congress, its authority under section 5—
'' to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article''—
is clear, provided Congress is clear about those provisions. And on that,
we may look, again, to the debates that surrounded not only the adoption
of the Fourteenth Amendment but the enactment of the Civil Rights Act
of 1866, which Congress reenacted in 1868, just after the amendment
was ratified.
Those debates give us a fairly clear idea of what it was that the American
people thought they were ratifying. In particular, all citizens, the Civil
Rights Act declared, '' have the right to make and enforce contracts, to
sue, be parties and give evidence; to inherit, purchase, lease, sell, hold,
and convey real personal property, and to full and equal benefit of all
laws and proceedings for the security of persons and property. '' Such
were the privileges and immunities the Fourteenth Amendment was meant
to secure.
Clearly, those basic common law rights, drawn from the reason-based
classical theory of rights, are the stuff of ordinary state law. Just as clearly,
however, states have been known to violate them, either directly or by
failure to secure them against private violations. When that happens, appeal
can be made to the courts, under section 1, or to Congress, under section 5.
The Fourteenth Amendment gives no power, of course, to secure the
modern '' entitlements'' that are no part of the common law tradition of
life, liberty, and property: the power it grants, that is, is limited by the
rights it is meant to secure. But it does give a power to reach even intrastate
matters when states are violating the provisions of the amendment. The
claim of '' states' rights, '' in short, is no defense for state violations of
individual rights.
Thus, if the facts had warranted it, something like the Church Arson
Prevention Act of 1996, depending on its particulars, might have been
authorized not on Commerce Clause grounds but on Fourteenth Amend-ment
grounds. If, for example, the facts had shown that arsons of white
churches were being prosecuted by state officials whereas arsons of black
churches were not, then we would have had a classic case of the denial
of the equal protection of the laws. With those findings, Congress would
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have had ample authority under section 5 of the Fourteenth Amendment
'' to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article. ''
Unfortunately, in the final version of the act, Congress removed citations
to the Fourteenth Amendment, choosing instead to rest its authority entirely
on the Commerce Clause. Not only is that a misuse of the Commerce
Clause, inviting further misuse; but, assuming the facts had warranted it,
it is a failure to use the Fourteenth Amendment as it was meant to be
used, inviting further failures. To be sure, the Fourteenth Amendment has
itself been misused, both by Congress and by the courts. But that is no
reason to ignore it. Rather, it is a reason to correct the misuses.
In its efforts to return power to the states and the people, then, Congress
must be careful not to misunderstand its role in our federal system. Over
the 20th century, Congress assumed vast powers that were never its to
assume, powers that belong properly to the states and the people. Those
need to be returned. But at the same time, Congress and the courts do
have authority under the Fourteenth Amendment to ensure that citizens
are free from state oppression. However much that authority may have
been underused or overused, it is there to be used; and if it is properly
used, objections by states about federal interference in their '' internal
affairs'' are without merit.
Reject the Nomination of Judicial Candidates Who Do Not Appreciate That the Constitution Is a Document of Delegated,
Enumerated, and Thus Limited Powers
As noted earlier, Congress can relimit government on its own initiative
simply by restricting its future actions to those that are authorized by the
Constitution and repealing those past actions that were taken without such
authority; but for those limits to become '' constitutional law, '' they would
have to be recognized as such by the Supreme Court, which essentially
abandoned that view of limited government during the New Deal. Thus,
for the Court to play its part in the job of relimiting government constitu-tionally,
it must recognize the mistakes it has made over the years, espe-cially
following Roosevelt's Court-packing threat in 1937, and rediscover
the Constitution— a process it began in Lopez, however tentatively, when
it returned explicitly to '' first principles. ''
But Congress is not powerless to influence the Court in that direction:
as vacancies arise on the Court and on lower courts, it has a substantial
say about who sits there through its power to advise and consent. To
exercise that power well, however, Congress must have a better grasp of
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the basic issues than it has shown in recent years during Senate confirmation
hearings for nominees for the Court. In particular, the Senate's obsession
with questions about '' judicial activism'' and '' judicial restraint, '' terms
that in themselves are largely vacuous, only distracts it from the real
issue— the nominee's philosophy of the Constitution. To appreciate those
points more fully, however, a bit of background is in order.
From Powers to Rights
The most important matter to grasp is the fundamental change that took
place in our constitutional jurisprudence during the New Deal and the
implications of that change for the modern debate. The debate today is
focused almost entirely on rights, not powers. Indeed, until the 107th
Congress and its focus on ideology, the principal concern during Senate
confirmation hearings had been with a nominee's views about what rights
are '' in'' the Constitution. That is an important question, to be sure, but
it must be addressed within a much larger constitutional framework, a
framework too often missing from recent hearings.
Clearly, the American debate began with rights— with the protests that
led eventually to the Declaration of Independence. And in that seminal
document, Jefferson made rights the centerpiece of the American vision:
rights to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, derived from a premise
of moral equality, itself grounded in a higher law discoverable by reason—
all to be secured by a government of powers made legitimate through
consent.
But when they set out to draft a constitution, the Framers focused on
powers, not rights, for two main reasons. First, their initial task was to
create and empower a government, which the Constitution did once it
was ratified. But their second task, of equal importance, was to limit that
government. Here, there were two main options. The Framers could have
listed a set of rights that the new government would be forbidden to violate.
Or they could have limited the government's powers by enumerating
them, then pitting one against the other through a system of checks
and balances— the idea being that where there is no power there is, by
implication, a right, belonging to the states or the people. They chose the
second option, for they could hardly have enumerated all of our rights,
but they could enumerate the new government's powers, which were
meant from the outset to be, again, '' few and defined. '' Thus, the doctrine
of enumerated powers became our principal defense against overweening
government.
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Only later, during the course of ratification, did it become necessary
to add a Bill of Rights— as a secondary defense. But in so doing, the
Framers were still faced with a pair of objections that had been posed
from the start. First, it was impossible to enumerate all of our rights,
which in principle are infinite in number. Second, given that problem, the
enumeration of only certain rights would be construed, by ordinary methods
of legal construction, as denying the existence of others. To overcome
those objections, therefore, the Framers wrote the Ninth Amendment: '' The
enumeration in the Constitution of certain rights shall not be construed to
deny or disparage others retained by the people. ''
Constitutional Visions
Thus, with the Ninth Amendment making it clear that we have both
enumerated and unenumerated rights, the Tenth Amendment making it
clear that the federal government has only enumerated powers, and the
Fourteenth Amendment later making it clear that our rights are good
against the states as well, what emerges is an altogether libertarian picture.
Individuals, families, firms, and the infinite variety of institutions that
constitute civil society are free to pursue happiness however they wish,
in accord with whatever values they wish, provided only that in the process
they respect the equal rights of others to do the same; and governments
are instituted to secure that liberty and do the few other things their
constitutions make clear they are empowered to do.
That picture is a far cry from the modern liberal's vision, rooted in the
Progressive Era, which would have government empowered to manage
all manner of economic affairs. But it is a far cry as well from the modern
conservative's vision, which would have government empowered to man-age
all manner of social affairs. Neither vision reflects the true constitu-tional
scheme. Both camps want to use the Constitution to promote their
own substantive agendas. Repeatedly, liberals invoke democratic power
for ends that are nowhere in the Constitution; at other times they invoke
'' rights'' that are no part of the plan, requiring government programs that
are nowhere authorized. For their agenda, conservatives rely largely on
expansive readings of democratic power that were never envisioned,
thereby running roughshod over rights that were meant to be protected.
From Liberty to Democracy
The great change in constitutional vision took place during the New
Deal, when the idea that galvanized the Progressive Era— that the basic
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purpose of government is to solve social and economic problems— was
finally instituted in law through the Court's radical reinterpretation of the
Constitution. As noted earlier, following the 1937 Court-packing threat,
the Court eviscerated our first line of defense, the doctrine of enumerated
powers, when it converted the General Welfare and Commerce Clauses
from shields against power into swords of power. Then in 1938 a cowed
Court undermined the second line of defense, our enumerated and unenu-merated
rights, when it declared that henceforth it would defer to the
political branches and the states when their actions implicated '' nonfunda-mental''
rights like property and contract— the rights associated with
'' ordinary commercial affairs. '' Legislation implicating such rights, the
Court said, would be given '' minimal scrutiny'' by the Court, which is
tantamount to no scrutiny at all. By contrast, when legislation implicated
'' fundamental'' rights like voting, speech, and, later, certain '' personal''
liberties, the Court would apply '' strict scrutiny'' to that legislation, proba-bly
finding it unconstitutional.
With that, the Constitution was converted, without benefit of amend-ment,
from a libertarian to a largely democratic document. The floodgates
were now open to majoritarian tyranny, which very quickly became special-interest
tyranny, as public-choice economic theory amply demonstrates
should be expected. Once those floodgates were opened, the programs
that poured through led inevitably to claims from many quarters that rights
were being violated. Thus, the Court in time would have to try to determine
whether those rights were '' in'' the Constitution— a question the Constitu-tion
had spoken to indirectly, for the most part, through the now-discredited
doctrine of enumerated powers; and if it found the rights in question, the
Court would then have to try to make sense of its distinction between
'' fundamental'' and '' nonfundamental'' rights.
Judicial '' Activism'' and '' Restraint''
It is no accident, therefore, that until very recently the modern debate
has been focused on rights, not powers. With the doctrine of enumerated
powers effectively dead, with government's power essentially plenary, the
only issues left for the Court to decide, for the most part, are whether
there might be any rights that would limit that power and whether those
rights are or are not '' fundamental. ''
Both liberals and conservatives today have largely bought into this
jurisprudence. As noted above, both camps believe the Constitution gives
a wide berth to democratic decisionmaking. Neither side any longer asks
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the first question, the fundamental question: do we have authority, constitu-tional
authority, to pursue this end? Instead, they simply assume that
authority, take a policy vote on some end before them, then battle in court
over whether there are any rights that might restrict their power.
Modern liberals, fond of government programs, call upon the Court to
be '' restrained'' in finding rights that might limit their redistributive and
regulatory schemes, especially '' nonfundamental'' rights like property and
contract. At the same time, even as they ignore those rights, liberals ask
the Court to be '' active'' in finding other '' rights'' that were never meant
to be among even our unenumerated rights.
But modern conservatives are often little better. Reacting to the abuses
of liberal '' activism, '' many conservatives call for judicial '' restraint''
across the board. Thus, if liberal programs have run roughshod over the
rights of individuals to use their property or freely contract, the remedy,
conservatives say, is not for the Court to invoke the doctrine of enumerated
powers— that battle was lost during the New Deal— nor even to invoke
the rights of property and contract that are plainly in the Constitution—
that might encourage judicial activism— but to turn to the democratic
process to overturn those programs. Oblivious to the fact that restraint in
finding rights is tantamount to activism in finding powers, and ignoring
the fact that it was the democratic process that gave us the problem in
the first place, too many conservatives offer us a counsel of despair
amounting to a denial of constitutional protection.
No one doubts that in recent decades the Court has discovered '' rights''
in the Constitution that are no part of either the enumerated or unenumer-ated
rights that were meant to be protected by that document. But it is
no answer to that problem to ask the Court to defer wholesale to the
political branches, thereby encouraging it, by implication, to sanction
unenumerated powers that are no part of the document either. Indeed, if
the Tenth Amendment means anything, it means that there are no such
powers. Again, if the Framers had wanted to establish a simple democracy,
they could have. Instead, they established a limited, constitutional republic,
a republic with islands of democratic power in a sea of liberty, not a sea
of democratic power surrounding islands of liberty.
Thus, it is not the proper role of the Court to find rights that are no
part of the enumerated or unenumerated rights meant to be protected by
the Constitution, thereby frustrating authorized democratic decisions. But
neither is it the proper role of the Court to refrain from asking whether
those decisions are in fact authorized and, if authorized, whether their
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implementation is in violation of the rights guaranteed by the Constitution,
enumerated and unenumerated alike.
The role of the judge in our constitutional republic is thus profoundly
important and oftentimes profoundly complex. '' Activism'' is no proper
posture for a judge, but neither is '' restraint. '' Judges must apply the
Constitution to cases or controversies before them, neither making it up
nor ignoring it. They must appreciate especially that the Constitution is
a document of delegated, enumerated, and thus limited powers. That will
get the judge started on the question of what rights are protected by the
document; for where there is no power there is, again, a right, belonging
either to the states or to the people: indeed, we should hardly imagine
that, before the addition of the Bill of Rights, the Constitution failed to
protect most rights simply because most were not '' in'' it. But reviving
the doctrine of enumerated powers is only part of the task before the
Court; it must also revive the classical theory of rights if the restoration
of constitutional government is to be completed correctly.
Those are the two sides— powers and rights— that need to be examined
in the course of Senate confirmation hearings for nominees for the courts
of the United States. More important than knowing a nominee's '' judicial
philosophy'' is knowing his philosophy of the Constitution. For the Consti-tution,
in the end, is what defines us as a nation.
If a nominee does not have a deep and thorough appreciation for the
basic principles of the Constitution— for the doctrine of enumerated powers
and for the classical theory of rights that stands behind the Constitution—
then his candidacy should be rejected. In recent years, Senate confirmation
hearings have become extraordinary opportunities for constitutional debate
throughout the nation. Those debates need to move from the ethereal
realm of '' constitutional law'' to the real realm of the Constitution. They
are extraordinary opportunities not simply for constitutional debate but
for constitutional renewal.
Alarmingly, however, in the 107th Congress we saw the debate move
not from '' constitutional law'' to the Constitution but in the very opposite
direction— to raw politics. The demand that judicial nominees pass an
'' ideological litmus test''— that they reflect and apply the '' mainstream
values'' of the American people, whatever those may be— is tantamount
to expecting and asking judges not to apply the law, which is what judging
is all about, but to make the law according to those values, whatever the
actual law may require. The duty of judges under the Constitution is to
decide cases according to the law, not according to whatever values or
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Congress, the Courts, and the Constitution
ideology may be in fashion. For that, the only ideology that matters is
the ideology of the Constitution.
Conclusion
America is a democracy in the most fundamental sense of that idea:
authority, or legitimate power, rests ultimately with the people. But the
people have no more right to tyrannize each other through democratic
government than government itself has to tyrannize the people. When
they constituted us as a nation by ratifying the Constitution and the
amendments that have followed, our ancestors gave up only certain of
their powers, enumerating them in a written constitution. We have allowed
those powers to expand beyond all moral and legal bounds— at the price
of our liberty and our well-being. The time has come to return those
powers to their proper bounds, to reclaim our liberty, and to enjoy the
fruits that follow.
Suggested Readings
Bailyn, Bernard. The Ideological Origins of the American Revolution. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap, 1967.
Barnett, Randy E. The Structure of Liberty: Justice and the Rule of Law. New York: Oxford University Press, 1998.
Barnett, Randy E., ed. The Rights Retained by the People: The History and Meaning of the Ninth Amendment. Fairfax, Va.: George Mason University Press, 1989.
Corwin, Edward S. The '' Higher Law'' Background of American Constitutional Law. Ithaca, N. Y.: Cornell University Press, 1955.
Dorn, James A., and Henry G. Manne, eds. Economic Liberties and the Judiciary. Fairfax, Va.: George Mason University Press, 1987.
Epstein, Richard A. Principles for a Free Society: Reconciling Individual Liberty with the Common Good. Reading, Mass.: Perseus Books, 1998.
. '' The Proper Scope of the Commerce Power. '' Virginia Law Review 73 (1987). . Simple Rules for a Complex World. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University
Press, 1995. . Takings: Private Property and the Power of Eminent Domain. Cambridge,
Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1985. Hamilton, Alexander, James Madison, and John Jay. The Federalist Papers. New York:
Mentor, 1961. Lawson, Gary. '' The Rise and Rise of the Administrative State. '' Harvard Law Review
107 (1994). Lawson, Gary, and Patricia B. Granger. '' The 'Proper' Scope of Federal Power: A
Jurisdictional Interpretation of the Sweeping Clause. '' Duke Law Journal 43 (1993). Locke, John. '' Second Treatise of Government. '' In Two Treatises of Government. Edited
by Peter Laslett. New York: Mentor, 1965. Miller, Geoffrey P. '' The True Story of Carolene Products. '' Supreme Court Review
(1987).
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Pilon, Roger. '' Freedom, Responsibility, and the Constitution: On Recovering Our Found-ing Principles. '' Notre Dame Law Review 68 (1993).
. '' How Constitutional Corruption Has Led to Ideological Litmus Tests for Judicial Nominees. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 446, August 8, 2002.
. '' The Purpose and Limits of Government. '' Cato's Letter, no. 13 (1999). . '' Restoring Constitutional Government. '' Cato's Letter, no. 9 (1995).
Reinstein, Robert J. '' Completing the Constitution: The Declaration of Independence, Bill of Rights and Fourteenth Amendment. '' Temple Law Review 66 (1993).
Shankman, Kimberly C., and Roger Pilon. '' Reviving the Privileges or Immunities Clause to Redress the Balance among States, Individuals, and the Federal Government. ''
Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 326, November 23, 1998. Siegan, Bernard H. Economic Liberties and the Constitution. Chicago: University of
Chicago Press, 1980. Sorenson, Leonard R. Madison on the '' General Welfare'' of America. Lanham, Md.:
Rowman & Littlefield, 1995. Warren, Charles. Congress as Santa Claus: Or National Donations and the General
Welfare Clause of the Constitution. 1932. Reprint, New York: Arno Press, 1978.
Yoo, John Choon. '' Our Declaratory Ninth Amendment. '' Emory Law Journal 42 (1993).
—Prepared by Roger Pilon
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4. Clearing the Decks for War
The U. S. government should
promptly eliminate the foreign aid budget devoted to develop-mental
aid, withdraw all U. S. military personnel from Bosnia and Kosovo
within one year, withdraw all U. S. troops stationed in Western Europe by 2005,
withdraw all U. S. troops stationed in South Korea by 2005,
withdraw all U. S. troops stationed in Japan by 2007,
transfer some of the funding and personnel involved in the
above withdrawals to units and tasks relevant to the war on terrorism, and
demobilize all surplus forces.
President Bush has emphasized that the war against terrorism will be
lengthy and difficult, despite the gratifying initial successes in Afghanistan.
He is right. Even if the war is confined (as it should be) to campaigns
against those organizations responsible for the September 11, 2001, attacks
or any future attacks instead of becoming an amorphous crusade against
evil in the world, the conflict will not be over quickly. That's why it is
imperative that the United States promptly clear the decks for war. America
must jettison obsolete or unnecessary commitments and expenditures.
When a family suffers an unexpected hardship or tragedy, it does not
continue with business as usual, leaving its priorities and spending patterns
unaltered. Likewise, a nation must alter its priorities when facing difficult-ies.
For America, the war against the terrorists who committed the Septem-ber
11 outrages will be the top priority for the foreseeable future. Yet,
instead of reducing or eliminating less essential commitments, Washington
seems inclined to pile the new commitments on top of the old.
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Barely a year into the war on terrorism, the failure to trim other commit-ments
is already creating strains on the military. Gen. Tommy Franks,
the commander of U. S. forces in Afghanistan, and other military leaders
have complained that the deployment is creating overburdened and
stressed-out personnel. That is a most troubling development. The United
States has fewer than 10,000 troops in Afghanistan and only a few thousand
more deployed in Pakistan and some of the Central Asian republics near
Afghanistan. As military deployments go, the campaign against al-Qaeda
and the Taliban to this point has not been an especially large one. Yet
even this modest effort is creating significant strains. One has to wonder
how severe the strain will become if a substantially larger deployment in
the war on terrorism is ever required.
There are numerous commitments that should be candidates for elimina-tion,
including a plethora of wasteful and unnecessary domestic spending
programs. The United States should also make significant cuts in the realm
of international affairs, starting with the elimination of the $10.9 billion
of developmental aid in the foreign aid budget. Numerous scholars have
documented the dismal record of developmental aid over the past half
century (see Chapter 66). U. S. developmental aid programs have subsidized
counterproductive economic policies in recipient countries and helped
entrench corrupt political elites. Such aid was a foolish expenditure the
United States could ill afford even before September 11. In a post– Sep-tember
11 environment, it should be one of the first programs on the
chopping block.
But developmental aid is not the only arena in which the U. S. govern-ment
needs to reorder its priorities in international affairs. There are also
a number of obsolete or unnecessary security commitments that should
be terminated. Four such candidates for elimination stand out.
Terminate the Nation-Building Missions in the Balkans
The nation-building missions in Bosnia and Kosovo were foolish and
unnecessary from the outset. Despite the exertions of America and its
NATO allies, Bosnia is no closer to being a viable country today than it
was when the Dayton Peace Agreement was signed more than seven
years ago. The NATO intervention in Kosovo is even worse. It merely
strengthened the hand of Albanian nationalists who want to create a Greater
Albania and who have recently stirred up trouble across the border in
Macedonia.
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Clearing the Decks for War
The missions in Bosnia and Kosovo cost the United States nearly $6
billion a year. More than 3, 000 U. S. troops are tied down in Bosnia in
glorified police work. More than 6, 000 troops are stationed in Kosovo
performing similar tedious tasks. U. S. leaders should immediately inform
the European members of NATO that we will be withdrawing all of our
forces over the next year.
The European allies would then have to decide whether to continue the
Balkan peacekeeping missions without U. S. participation or withdraw their
own forces as well. U. S. leaders should not especially care which option
the Europeans select. The Balkans have never been an arena in which
vital American interests were at stake. The region is more important to
the nations of the European Union, and they should decide whether a
peacekeeping venture is worth the expense and bother. It is absurd to
argue that the prosperous nations of the European Union cannot police
the Balkans if they wish to do so. American money, as well as the U. S.
military personnel tied down in useless peacekeeping tasks, could be used
far more effectively to prosecute the war against terrorism.
Withdraw the 100, 000 U. S. Troops Stationed in Western Europe
The U. S. troop presence in Western Europe is an utterly obsolete
commitment inherited from the Cold War. As noted in Chapter 51, the
original concept of NATO did not include the permanent stationing of
U. S. troops in Europe. Since the Cold War has been over for more than
a decade, the time is long overdue for the withdrawal of all such personnel
still deployed on the Continent.
Even the most creative defenders of the deployment would have diffi-culty
explaining just why the troops are still there. The U. S. forces are
apparently on duty to prevent an invasion of Western Europe by a Warsaw
Pact that no longer exists led by a Soviet Union that no longer exists.
How tank divisions stationed in Germany benefit the security of the United
States in the 21st century is truly a mystery.
The Europeans clearly can provide for their own security without relying
on U. S. troops. There is no serious security threat in Europe, nor is one
likely to emerge in the foreseeable future. The security problems that do
exist are small-scale, with the disorders in the Balkans being the primary
examples. The nations of the European Union should certainly be able to
manage their own defense and deal with such minor security contingencies.
Collectively, the European Union has a population larger than that of the
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United States as well as a larger gross domestic product. That is true even
without taking into account the new nations that will be added to the EU
within the next two years.
True, the European nations (especially the major states in the EU) might
have to raise their military budgets slightly to offset the withdrawal of
U. S. forces, but that action would hardly result in an onerous burden.
Besides, it is appropriate that the Europeans pay the full cost of their own
defense. Giving the prosperous European allies a de facto defense subsidy
made no sense even before September 11. It is a luxury the United States
simply cannot afford in a post– September 11 setting.
The U. S. military units stationed in Europe should be withdrawn by
the beginning of 2005 and demobilized. Some of the personnel should
then be reassigned to lighter, more mobile units that would be relevant
in the fight against terrorism. The military commitment to NATO costs
the United States nearly $40 billion a year. Even a partial demobilization
would save American taxpayers several billion dollars.
Withdraw the 37,000 U. S. Troops Stationed in South Korea
The U. S. troop presence in South Korea is another obsolete, Cold War–
era obligation. U. S. troops stayed in that country after the end of the
Korean War in 1953. At that time, a plausible argument could be made
for the commitment. U. S. leaders worried that a new war on the peninsula
would be merely one phase of an overall communist offensive to dominate
all of East Asia— a development that would have threatened important
American interests. Moreover, South Korea was a poor, war-torn country
incapable of defending itself. Not only did it face a hostile, well-armed
communist North Korea, but it faced a North Korea backed by both
Moscow and Beijing.
That is clearly no longer the case. Today, South Korea faces only one
adversary: a desperately poor and increasingly isolated North Korea. The
last thing either Moscow or Beijing desires is another war on the Korean
peninsula. Indeed, in recent years both Russia and China have distanced
their policies from those of their ostensible North Korean ally and forged
close political and economic ties with South Korea. Moreover, South
Korea now has enormous advantages in the contest with North Korea.
The South has twice the population and an economy nearly 40 times
larger than that of its adversary. A nation with those characteristics should
certainly be able to defend itself.
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Unfortunately, U. S. officials seem to have adopted an American version
of the Brezhnev Doctrine when it comes to the military tie to South Korea.
That doctrine, articulated by Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev, asserted that
once a nation became a member of the communist camp it must always
remain in the communist camp. The U. S. version seems to be '' Once a
security dependent of the United States, always a security dependent of
the United States. ''
Instead of taking responsibility for its own security, South Korea chooses
to underinvest in defense and remain dependent on the United States for
major portions of its military needs. Despite being next door to one of
the more bizarre and unpredictable regimes in the world, Seoul actually
spends a lower percentage of its gross domestic product on defense than
does the United States. Moreover, one of South Korea's first responses
to the East Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s was to cut its already
anemic defense budget.
U. S. leaders should inform their South Korean counterparts that the
days of free riding on the U. S. security guarantee are over. America has
its own war to wage, and it can no longer afford to subsidize prosperous
security clients. The security commitment to South Korea costs the United
States approximately $15 billion a year. Even if some of the forces with-drawn
were subsequently redeployed to wage the war on terrorism, Ameri-can
taxpayers would realize substantial savings.
Withdraw the Nearly 50,000 Troops Stationed in Japan
The U. S. military presence in Japan is yet another obsolete commitment.
In the decades following World War II, U. S. officials wanted to keep
Japanese rearmament to a minimum. Indeed, Article 9 of Japan's constitu-tion,
placed in the document in response to intense pressure from the
United States, renounced war and seemed to preclude the existence of
any armed forces. Because Washington soon wanted some Japanese assis-tance
in the struggle against the Soviet Union, however, U. S. leaders
endorsed a more flexible interpretation of Article 9, and Japan developed
modest ground, air, and naval '' self-defense forces. ''
Nevertheless, the United States has never fully trusted Japan and has
shown no support for Japan's playing a vigorous security role— much
less an independent security role— in East Asia. Even the much-touted
changes in the defense guidelines for the U. S.-Japanese alliance, adopted
in 1997, authorize Japan merely to provide nonlethal logistical support
for U. S. military operations in East Asia unless Japan itself is attacked.
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U. S. officials seem content to keep Japan as a barely trusted junior security
helper. The tradeoff for that limitation is that Tokyo expects the United
States to keep military forces in Japan and take primary responsibility for
Japan's security.
That policy needs to change. Some of the U. S. forces stationed in Japan
sit as uselessly as the troops stationed in Western Europe. The more than
18,000 Marines stationed on Okinawa fall into that category. The air and
naval units deployed in Japan arguably contribute to the overall stability
of East Asia, but they also provide a de facto defense subsidy to Japan.
It is time for Japan to step forward and assume its rightful role as the
principal stabilizing power in East Asia. Japan has the world's second
largest economy, and its military forces— although relatively small— are
modern and capable. A modest increase in defense spending would enable
Japan to offset the withdrawal of U. S. forces in a few years. Although
the security environment in East Asia is not as benign as the environment
in Europe, there is no need for a large U. S. military presence. It should
be humiliating for Japan, with all its capabilities, to still be dependent on
the United States for its security.
The Marines on Okinawa should be withdrawn over the next two years,
and the air and naval units should depart gradually thereafter. Some of
the latter units probably would be redeployed to assist in the war on
terrorism, but even so, much of the nearly $20 billion a year cost of the
U. S. military commitment to Japan could be saved.
It is uncertain whether the United States would need to redirect all of
the money saved from terminating the foreign aid budget and ending
obsolete or unnecessary overseas military commitments to the war on
terrorism. Clearly, some additional resources ought to be devoted to beefing
up our special forces units and intelligence gathering and evaluation capa-bilities.
They have both been shortchanged for years, and yet they are the
front-line forces in the fight against terrorism.
But there may well be some money left over. That is not a bad thing.
At the very least, such savings might head off the looming prospect of a
return to large federal budget deficits. The savings might even be enough
to give the beleaguered American taxpayer a modest break. But however
the money is used, it would be better than the current wasteful situation.
Recommended Readings
Bandow, Doug. '' Korean Detente: A Threat to Washington's Anachronistic Military Presence? '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 59, August 17, 2000.
. '' Okinawa: Liberating America's East Asian Military Colony. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 344, May 18, 1999.
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. Tripwire: Korea and U. S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World. Washington: Cato Institute, 1996.
Carpenter, Ted Galen. '' Fixing U. S. Foreign Policy. '' Reason, October 2002. . NATO's Empty Victory: A Postmortem on the Balkan War. Washington: Cato
Institute, 2000. Carpenter, Ted Galen, ed. NATO Enters the 21st Century. London: Frank Cass, 2001.
Dempsey, Gary, ed. Exiting the Balkan Thicket. Washington: Cato Institute, 2002. Eland, Ivan. Putting '' Defense'' Back into U. S. Defense Policy. Westport, Conn.:
Praeger, 2001. Harrison, Selig S. Korean Endgame: A Strategy for Reunification and U. S. Disengage-ment.
Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 2002. Layne, Christopher. '' Death Knell for NATO? The Bush Administration Confronts the
European Security and Defense Policy. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 394, April 4, 2001.
Olsen, Edward A. '' A Northeast Asian Peace Dividend. '' Strategic Review (Summer 1998).
. U. S. National Defense for the Twenty-First Century: The Grand Exit Strategy. London: Frank Cass, 2002.
—Prepared by Ted Galen Carpenter
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5. Waging an Effective War
Congress should
stress to the administration that the joint resolution approved
by the Senate and House of Representatives authorized the president '' to use all necessary and appropriate force against
those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks
that occurred on September 11, 2001, '' not to wage an amor-phous war on '' evil'';
urge the administration to focus the war on terrorism only on the
al-Qaeda terrorist network and not expand it to other terrorist groups or countries that have not attacked the United States;
urge the administration to reduce military operations in Afghan-istan
and expand military operations into the Peshawar border region in Pakistan to root out al-Qaeda and Taliban forces; and
recognize that much of the war against terrorism will not involve
military action but will emphasize diplomatic, intelligence, and law enforcement cooperation with other countries.
The war on terrorism is unlike any other war the United States has
waged. The enemy is not a traditional nation-state with armed forces.
Instead, it is a dispersed terrorist network operating in more than 60
countries around the world. As demonstrated on September 11, terrorists
are unlikely to attack using conventional military means— and they are
willing to sacrifice themselves in suicide operations. Also unlike traditional
wars, the war on terrorism does not have a geographical front where battle
lines are clearly drawn. The terrorists will choose where they will attack
(either in the United States or U. S. targets abroad), but the United States
may not know where to direct retaliatory action. This war is likely to
be long (if the English experience with the Irish Republican Army and
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the Israeli experience with Palestinian terrorist groups are any indication).
The mere absence of terrorist violence against the United States or U. S.
targets overseas will not be a reliable standard for determining if the war
is being won. There could be long lulls between terrorist attacks. And
there is not likely to be a clearly and easily defined victory— the terrorists
will probably not surrender. Realistically, the United States may not be
able to win the war in the traditional sense of '' winning'' and '' losing. ''
Recognizing and accepting that the strategic outcome may be ambiguous
can help effective engagement with the enemy.
Focus on al-Qaeda
To begin, the United States must clearly define the terrorist enemy, and
in this instance the enemy is the al-Qaeda terrorist network, which is the
group responsible for the September 11 attacks against the World Trade
Center towers and the Pentagon. Indeed, the joint resolution of Congress
after the attacks authorized the president '' to use all necessary and appro-priate
force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines
planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorists attacks that occurred
on September 11, 2001. '' Therefore, the focus of the war and our efforts
must be on al-Qaeda, not a more expansive and nebulous war against
terrorism in general. That means avoiding distractions (which use up scarce
resources and could potentially lead to getting bogged down) that are
tenuous and tangential to al-Qaeda, such as the Abu Sayef in the Philippines
and Muslim Chechen rebels in the Republic of Georgia. Both of those
are internal problems best left to their respective governments. Similarly,
the United States needs to avoid making false linkages between the war
on terrorism and the war on drugs by including the Colombian FARC as
a target. And the United States must avoid needlessly stirring the hornets'
nest by trying to connect al-Qaeda to other terrorist groups, such as Hamas
and Hezbollah, which do not focus their attacks against the United States,
without clear proof that such groups are collaborating against the United
States. It also means understanding that— unless hard evidence proves
otherwise— except for the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda is not
linked to, does not receive support from, and has not been given safe
haven by other countries. In other words, the war on terrorism should not
be expanded to include military operations against any of the countries
of the '' axis of evil. ''
It is also important to understand that military operations— such as
Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan— are likely to be the excep-54
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tion rather than the rule in the war on terrorism. Intelligence and law
enforcement operations will probably be more important to the successful
prosecution of the war. Thus, even calling this a '' war'' on terrorism is
somewhat misleading, given traditional thinking about wars and how they
are waged.
Afghanistan
Operation Anaconda and subsequent military operations in the wake
of Operation Enduring Freedom have demonstrated that only tattered
remnants of the Taliban and al-Qaeda remain in Afghanistan. Furthermore,
the U. S. bombing of a wedding party in the Uruzgan province in July
2002 demonstrates that the continued use of airpower for military opera-tions
inside Afghanistan may be counterproductive. Therefore, if there is
a requirement for '' mop-up'' operations against al-Qaeda and the Taliban
inside Afghanistan, the United States should rely more on ground forces—
in particular special operations forces.
That said, given the post-Taliban political maneuvering by various
regional and local actors in Afghanistan, the United States needs to be
extremely careful and wary about intelligence received from Afghan
sources about al-Qaeda and Taliban in hiding. There is evidence to suggest
that ulterior motives may have been behind intelligence information that
prompted several U. S. military actions against the wrong targets or the
killing of innocent civilians in Afghanistan. The U. S. military can ill afford
too many of those episodes. The biggest mistake the United States can
make in Afghanistan is to have the Afghan people view the U. S. military
presence as an invading and occupying military force rather than the force
that liberated them from oppressive Taliban rule. History shows that while
the various factions inside Afghanistan often fight among themselves, they
tend to unite against any invading power.
The other '' traps'' that U. S. military forces need to avoid in Afghanistan
are peacekeeping and nation building. Both are nonessential to the success-ful
prosecution of the war on terrorism. The United States needs to recog-nize
that domestic opposition to the Karzai government does not automati-cally
mean the opponents are al-Qaeda or Taliban supporters who are a
threat to the United States. Furthermore, the U. S. military should not be
used (or be perceived) to prop up the Karzai government. That government
must be able to sustain itself on its own merits. That the Karzai government
might fall does not necessarily mean the return of Taliban rule and a safe
haven for al-Qaeda. Rather, the country would likely revert to its traditional
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form of governance— a highly decentralized system with a nominal
national government and most power held by tribal leaders and so-called
regional warlords. That may not be either efficient or democratic by
Western standards, but U. S. interests in the war on terrorism demand only
that whatever government is in power in Afghanistan not provide safe
haven and support for al-Qaeda terrorists. That the United States is serious
and willing to take all necessary action to realize this objective is certainly
the single most important lesson learned by the Afghans from Operation
Enduring Freedom.
Pakistan
Ultimately, Afghanistan becomes less important as a place to conduct
military operations in the war on terrorism and more important as a place
from which to launch military operations. And those operations should
be directed across the border into neighboring Pakistan, which is where
al-Qaeda and the Taliban are known to have fled.
Such operations will not be easy. The lessons learned in Afghanistan
suggest that the United States should expect to have to rely more heavily
on ground forces to find, engage, and destroy al-Qaeda and Taliban forces.
In other words, military victories in Pakistan will not be won with airpower
and precision-guided munitions, which means that U. S. forces are likely to
experience casualties. Given that al-Qaeda and the Taliban have apparently
found shelter in the western Pakistan border area, U. S. military forces
cannot reasonably expect support from the population in the region. Indeed,
in some instances, the inhabitants may put up fierce resistance. And because
of the political situation in Pakistan, the United States cannot count on
significant support from Pakistan's army and other military forces. Presi-dent
Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan is conducting a high-wire balancing
act that will make it difficult enough for him to condone U. S. military
action inside his country, let alone actively participate in such action. But
if Pakistan is to claim to be an ally of the United States in the war on
terrorism, the United States must prevail and persuade Musharraf to allow
the U. S. military to expand operations in Pakistan to finish the job it
started in Afghanistan.
Weak States
It is apparent that weak states are potential breeding grounds and hiding
places for terrorists. Therefore, the Middle East and Africa are areas that
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require careful attention. Certainly, the United States must be prepared to
use military force when and where necessary. But first and foremost, the
United States should work to convince the governments of countries that
are likely to be hiding places and bases of reconstitution for al-Qaeda—
for example, Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen— to take action themselves.
Only if such countries refuse or are unable to take action against a signifi-cant
al-Qaeda presence should the United States consider conducting
military operations (in all likelihood with special forces) to hunt down
and capture or kill al-Qaeda members.
Saudi Arabia
The United States also needs to put political and diplomatic pressure
on friendly Arab countries to cooperate and assist with hunting down al-Qaeda
inside their borders. Most notably, 15 of the 19 hijackers involved
in the September 11 attacks against the World Trade Center towers and
the Pentagon were Saudi nationals. Yet— as was the case after the 1996
bomb attack on the Khobar Towers in Dharan that killed 19 Americans—
the Saudi government has been less than cooperative and remains reluctant
to take any meaningful action against potential terrorists. Given the U. S.
military presence in Saudi Arabia (at the request of the House of Saud
and itself a contributing factor to making the United States a target for
terrorism), such behavior is unacceptable. Just as President Musharraf
must ultimately be convinced to give the U. S. military freedom of action
in western Pakistan if he is to continue to claim to be an ally in the war
on terrorism, the Saudis must also cooperate. If they don't, the United
States should sever its ties with the House of Saud.
Indonesia
Another area of the world that bears watching is Indonesia, which has
the world's largest Muslim population and is just emerging from years
of political, social, and economic turmoil. Various claims have been made
about an al-Qaeda presence, including terrorist training camps, in Indone-sia.
Therefore, the United States needs to determine carefully whether
there is a direct al-Qaeda presence in Indonesia or the situation involves
an indigenous insurgency with tenuous and tangential links to al-Qaeda
(in the Philippines, for example). The mere presence of radical Muslims
does not necessarily signify a direct threat from al-Qaeda. And if a stable,
democratic government in Indonesia is crucial to preventing future terror-57
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ism, the United States needs to be careful about placing undue strains on
Indonesia's fledging democracy. The presence of U. S. troops in the coun-try,
for example, could fuel the anger of Muslim extremists. As is the
case with Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen, the United States needs to coax
and cajole the Indonesian government to take necessary actions and precau-tions.
But use of U. S. military force should be resorted to only if there
is direct evidence of a significant al-Qaeda presence and all other options
for dealing with the threat have been exhausted.
Allies and Friendly Countries
The rest of the war on terrorism will be waged against al-Qaeda cells
operating in countries that are either allies of or friendly to the United
States. The task will be to ferret out and capture al-Qaeda members. The
war will not be military in nature. Rather, it will be the hard (and sometimes
mundane) work of intelligence and law enforcement agencies. That will
require unprecedented cooperation between such U. S. agencies and those
in foreign countries. (Cooperation should be limited to intelligence and
law enforcement; the U. S. military should not become involved in fighting
other nations' wars for them.) The United States needs to improve relations
with foreign intelligence agencies in order to be able to share information
about suspected al-Qaeda operatives. Foreign law enforcement and internal
security agencies will have primary responsibility for apprehending sus-pected
al-Qaeda terrorists. And the hurdles of extradition will have to be
overcome so that foreign governments hand over the terrorists who are
caught. Again, the United States will need to exert political and diplomatic
skill to elicit such cooperation. The threat of military force (let alone its
actual use) is not a viable option.
In the final analysis, the United States will not be able to go it alone
in the war on terrorism. The United States will need to convince other
countries to take actions that are in U. S. interests. Diplomacy and statecraft
may ultimately be the most important tools for achieving success against
al-Qaeda.
Suggested Readings
Bandow, Doug. '' Befriending Saudi Princes: A High Price for a Dubious Alliance. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 428, March 20, 2002.
Bergen, Peter L. Holy War, Inc. New York: Free Press, 2001. Carr, Caleb. The Lessons of Terror. New York: Random House, 2002.
Doran, Michael Scott. '' Somebody Else's Civil War. '' Foreign Affairs 81, no. 1 (January– February 2002).
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Eland, Ivan. '' Robust Response to 9/ 11 Is Needed but Poking the Hornets' Nest Is Ill-Advised. '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 69, December 18, 2001.
Hadar, Leon T. '' Pakistan in America's War against Terrorism: Strategic Ally or Unreliable Client? '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 436, May 8, 2002.
Hoffman, Bruce. Inside Terrorism. New York: Columbia University Press, 1998. Pen~ a, Charles V. '' The Anti-Terrorism Coalition: Don't Pay an Excessive Price. ''
Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 68, December 11, 2001. Vlahos, Michael. '' Terror's Mask: Insurgency within Islam. '' Johns Hopkins Univer-sity,
Applied Physics Laboratory, May 2002.
—Prepared by Charles V. Pen~ a
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6. Homeland Security
Congress should
monitor closely the implementation of the new Department of
Homeland Security and instruct the president to trim and stream-line the disparate bureaucracies incorporated into it so that
the department can be effective in fighting agile terrorist groups; prune and then consolidate the agencies of the intelligence
community to reduce the coordination problems that led to the events of September 11, 2001;
abolish the Office of Homeland Security and the Homeland
Security Council and the position of the homeland security adviser (nowthat a Department of Homeland Security has been
established) and use the existing National Security Council and national security adviser to coordinate homeland security issues
among agencies; and ensure that the new department does not undertake measures
that improve homeland security only at the margins, while undermining America's unique and cherished civil liberties.
In the largest open society in the world, improving homeland security
is a daunting task. Among other vulnerable targets, the United States has
thousands of miles of borders; thousands of bridges, sports stadiums, and
shopping malls; and hundreds of skyscrapers and nuclear power plants.
Defending against terrorist attacks perpetrated with weapons of mass
destruction or disruption may be even more challenging. According to
the 1997 Defense Science Board report, DoD Responses to Transnational
Threats, '' There are a number of challenges that have been regarded as
'too hard' to solve: the nuclear terrorism challenge, defense against biologi-cal
and chemical warfare threat, and defense against the information
warfare threat. '' Yet the September 11, 2001, attacks on the Pentagon and
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World Trade Center put intense pressures on Congress and the Bush
administration to show that security against future attacks is being
enhanced. The key question is whether rearranging boxes on the govern-ment's
organizational chart and adding new bureaucracy will make the
average American safer from terrorist attacks. Unless the agencies being
incorporated into the new Department of Homeland Security are trimmed
and streamlined in order to fight agile terrorists, the answer is no.
Adding New Bureaucracy May Reduce Security Rather Than Enhance It
Originally, the Bush administration opposed the Democratic proposal to
create a new department charged with homeland security. Then revelations
about the existence of intelligence information that might have helped
uncover the September 11 attacks before they occurred and about the lack
of coordination in and among government agencies— within the Federal
Bureau of Investigation and between the FBI and the Central Intelligence
Agency— which led to failure to piece the information together and act
on it, caused the administration to reverse its opposition to the creation
of a new security bureaucracy.
As usual, Washington's response to a crisis is a reorganization of
government, and this one is the largest since 1947. Bits and pieces of
disparate departments and agencies will be pasted together to form the
new department. For example, among other federal entities, the Federal
Emergency Management Agency, the Customs Service and Secret Service
(from the Treasury Department), the Coast Guard and Transportation
Security Administration (from the Transportation Department), the Animal
and Plant Health Inspection Service (from the Agriculture Department),
and the Border Patrol and Immigration and Naturalization Service (from
the Justice Department) will be included in the new department.
The threat from al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups is one of agile,
nonbureaucratic adversaries who have the great advantage of being on
the offense— knowing where, when, and how they will attack. Terrorists
take advantage of the sluggishness of and the poor coordination among
military, intelligence, law enforcement, and domestic response bureaucra-cies
to attack gaps in the defenses. Yet the Bush administration rushed—
before the congressional intelligence panels had completed their work to
determine the exact nature of the government lapses prior to September
11— to propose a solution that did not seem to deal with preliminary
indications of what the major problem seems to have been: a lack of
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coordination between and within the intelligence agencies that make up
the vast U. S. intelligence bureaucracy. Instead, the president has proposed
reorganizing other government agencies into a new super bureaucracy,
leaving out the CIA and FBI. Furthermore, although seeming to consolidate
federal efforts at homeland defense, the new department may actually
reduce U. S. security by adding bureaucracy rather than reducing it. More
bureaucracy means more coordination problems of the kind that seem to
have been prevalent in the intelligence community prior to September 11.
The intelligence community and other agencies involved in security
have traditionally battled nation-states. Fortunately, those states have gov-ernments
with bureaucracies that are often more sluggish than our own
government's agencies. In contrast, terrorist groups have always been
nimble opponents that were difficult to stop, but they were not a strategic
threat to the U. S. homeland. As dramatically illustrated by the attacks
of September 11, terrorists willing to engage in mass slaughter (with
conventional weapons or weapons of mass destruction) and commit suicide
now pose a strategic threat to the U. S. territory and population.
No security threat to the United States matches this one. To fight this
nontraditional threat, the U. S. government must think outside the box and
try to be as nimble as the opponent (a difficult task). The Bush administra-tion
is correct that the current U. S. government structure— with more than
100 federal entities involved in homeland security— is not optimal for
defending the nation against the new strategic threat. Although consolidat-ing
federal efforts is not a bad idea in itself, creating a new department
does not ensure that the bureaucracy will be more streamlined, experience
fewer coordination problems, or be more effective in the fight against
terrorism.
In fact, the reorganization will add yet another layer of bureaucracy to
the fight against terrorism. In his message to Congress urging the passage
of his proposal to create the new department, the president made a favorable
reference to the National Security Act of 1947, which merged the Depart-ments
of War and the Navy to create the Department of Defense and
created an Office of the Secretary of Defense to oversee the military
services. But today, 55 years after the act's passage, that office is a bloated
bureaucracy that exercises comparatively weak oversight of military ser-vices
whose failure to coordinate and cooperate even during wartime is
legendary. Even Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has compared
the efficiency and responsiveness of the DoD bureaucracy to Soviet cen-tral
planning.
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The proposed new department is similar to DoD because it will bring
together agencies with very different missions and methods of operation
and create a large new departmental bureaucracy to try to rein them all in.
As was the case when DoD was created, consolidation of the government's
efforts is laudable, but it may be unhelpful or even counterproductive
to establish another layer of bureaucracy without cutting out layers of
management from the agencies being merged or removing some agencies
entirely from the homeland security arena and giving their functions to
other agencies. Interagency coordination problems may become intra-agency
coordination problems.
Consolidation of agencies would have been fine had cutting come before
pasting rather than vice versa. In other words, agencies should have been
trimmed and reformed (and some totally eliminated) before they were
consolidated. Instead, the agencies will be consolidated, with cuts or
savings to come later. That promise is not likely to be fulfilled. Once the
new, large, consolidated department is created— it will be one of the
largest departments in the government— the new department head will be
a powerful advocate for more money and people rather than the opposite.
Although the Bush administration did promise some efficiencies from
consolidation, the administration did not project overall net savings from
the reorganization. At best, policymakers in the administration promised
that a consolidated department would not increase costs. But it is telling that
the president's plan had no cost estimates accompanying it. Historically,
mergers of government agencies have increased costs rather than decreased
them. Although some longer-term savings from consolidation of payroll
and computer systems may occur, creating the new secretary's bureaucracy
to ride herd on all of the agencies will likely increase net costs. The
president's proposal for the department calls for adding one deputy secre-tary,
five under secretaries, and up to 16 assistant secretaries. According
to the Congressional Budget Office, the new department could cost as
much as $4.5 billion more (from 2003 to 2007) than operating the disparate
agencies separately.
So the president's plan is likely to cost more rather than less. Following
the money is important; if costs are not going down, the plan is unlikely
to streamline the government's efforts at counterterrorism and homeland
defense. With too many federal entities already involved in homeland
security, more government is not better than less. With so many agencies
involved, if a catastrophic attack with weapons of mass destruction occur-red,
administrative chaos would be the probable outcome. After creation
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of the new department, there will be fewer organizational entities but
probably more government. A stealthy and nimble enemy is at the gates,
and there is not much time to put the government on a diet. Instead, the
government may be headed to the pastry shop. More bureaucracy means
more coordination problems and more opportunities for terrorists.
Bush's Plan Does Not Solve the Problem with Intelligence and May Make It Worse
The president's plan for a new department does not solve what seems
to be the primary problem— the lack of coordination within and between
U. S. intelligence agencies, specifically the FBI and the CIA. Those agen-cies
are conspicuously missing from the new department.
Yet, for enhanced homeland security, intelligence is the key ingredient.
The U. S. government has infinitely more resources for use against al-Qaeda
and other terrorist groups than they do against it. If the U. S.
government can discover plots or the location of targets and terrorists in
time to take action, the overwhelming U. S. superiority in military and law
enforcement resources can be brought to bear to foil the plot. Mitigating
the effects of the attack after it happens is important, but, in many cases,
the government may be able to only marginally help reduce casualties.
Without good intelligence, that may be the government's only role. The
United States already has an unparalleled ability to collect vast amounts
of raw intelligence data— the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle— but the already
too numerous agencies in the U. S. intelligence community have had trouble
fusing it into a complete picture.
Regrettably, in intelligence, as in the overall homeland security realm,
the reorganization will make the government even less likely to put the
jigsaw puzzle together and even more ungainly and sluggish in combating
terrorists. A new intelligence analysis center will be created in the new
Department of Homeland Security to analyze threats to the U. S. homeland.
However, the FBI, the CIA, and other intelligence agencies already analyze
such threats. Thus, the new agency will be analyzing the analyses of other
agencies. If the new analysis center is supposed to be fusing the analyses
of those agencies, it would seem to be usurping the role of the intelligence
community staff under the director of central intelligence. Furthermore,
if the FBI and the CIA fail to fully cooperate or coordinate with each
other because of turf jealousies, excessive secrecy, or burdensome bureau-cratic
rules for interagency coordination, the problem is likely to get worse
as another competing bureaucracy is added.
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The Government Already Had the Machinery to Coordinate Homeland Security
The National Security Council includes the heads of the major depart-ments
and agencies that are responsible for the nation's security. The
president's powerful national security adviser officially only coordinates
policy among the agencies but in reality is a potent independent voice in
the policymaking process. It would seem logical that catastrophic terrorism
against the U. S. homeland would affect national security and thus fit
under the purview of the NSC and the national security adviser. But
apparently not.
Before proposing the new Department of Homeland Security, the presi-dent
created a White House Office of Homeland Security, a homeland
security adviser, and a Homeland Security Council. Even with the creation
of the new department, all of this bureaucracy remains. The president
maintains that protecting America from terrorism will remain a multide-partmental
issue and will continue to require those entities to oversee
interagency coordination. But the roles of the homeland security adviser
and the Homeland Security Council appear to be redundant with those of
the national security adviser and the NSC. For 55 years, the NSC existed
to provide for the national security, but as soon as the nation was attacked
at home, a new security bureaucracy was thought to be needed. By creating
a new cabinet department, U. S. policymakers appear to subscribe to the
strange notion that the NSC should provide for security only overseas.
Piling new bureaucracy on new bureaucracy is not the way to fight
nimble terrorists. Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), vice chairman of the
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, noted that the FBI and the CIA
are not very agile, and the General Accounting Office has recommended
reducing the layers, levels, and units within the FBI. That recommendation
should apply to all agencies that remain in the homeland security arena.
Many of the more than 100 federal entities involved in homeland security
need to be removed from performing the mission. To reduce the chances
of lapses in intelligence coordination and chaos in domestic crisis response,
there should be fewer government entities in need of coordination.
Although reducing the number of people and the amount of bureaucracy
seems to go against the tide in the present crisis atmosphere, preliminary
indications are that the main problem is coordination among governmental
entities, not a lack of raw information or insufficient resources. In short,
Congress should not be afraid to streamline or even eliminate agencies
involved in homeland security— both within and outside the new
department.
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Homeland Security and Civil Liberties
Congress should carefully scrutinize any new security measures to make
sure they really enhance security and do not merely erode the civil liberties
that make America unique. Osama bin Laden is a sophisticated operative
who has stated that one of his major goals is to change the U. S. system.
If America's civil liberties are eroded needlessly, bin Laden may achieve
an even bigger victory than he did with the horrific attacks of September 11.
In a crisis, the government has an incentive to take measures designed
to show progress in dealing with it. In the wake of the September 11
attacks, many of the measures proposed or implemented by the Justice
Department to restrict civil liberties seemed to be '' for show, '' with
little hope of effectively fighting terrorism— for example, the Terrorism
Information and Prevention System program that would have inundated
law enforcement agencies with dead-end leads from postal and utility
workers spying on private residences and businesses. Congress needs to
make sure the new department avoids such fiascos. In short, Congress
needs to make sure that any new security measures are needed and effective
and do not unduly restrict civil liberties.
Suggested Readings
Congressional Budget Office. '' Congressional Budget Office Cost Estimate: H. R. 2005— Homeland Security Act of 2002. '' July 23, 2002.
Eland, Ivan. '' Homeland Security: Calibrating Calamity. '' Washington Times, July 25, 2002.
. Testimony before the Subcommittee on Technology, Terrorism, and Govern-ment Information of the Senate Judiciary Committee. June 25, 2002.
Lynch, Timothy. '' Breaking the Vicious Cycle: Preserving Our Liberties While Fighting Terrorism. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 443, June 26, 2002.
Office of the Secretary of Defense. Final Report. Vol.1 ofThe Defense Science Board 1997 Summer Study Task Force on DoD Responses to Transnational Threats. Octo-ber
1997. Taylor, Eric R. '' Are We Prepared for Terrorism Using Weapons of Mass Destruction?
Government's Half Measures. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 387, November 27, 2000.
. '' The New Homeland Security Apparatus: Impeding the Fight against Agile Terrorists. '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 70, June 26, 2002.
—Prepared by Ivan Eland
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7. Reducing the '' Lightning Rod'' Problem
Congress should support a decisive, but narrowly focused, war on terrorism to eradicate the terrorists who perpetrated the Sep-tember
11, 2001, attacks. In the long term, Congress should refuse to provide funds for U. S. military presence and military
and political interventions overseas that are not required to defend vital U. S. interests and could result in catastrophic retaliatory
attacks by terrorists on U. S. targets, including the American home-land. Most urgently, Congress should
direct that U. S. military forces be withdrawn fromSaudi Arabia;
adopt a more even-handed approach to the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict by removing U. S. military and economic support for Israel and ending active mediation of the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict; end the comprehensive economic sanctions against Iraq; and
end support for despotic Arab governments, such as those in
Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Current U. S. policies are unnecessary for U. S. security and incite radical
Islamist terrorists to attack U. S targets.
The U. S. Government Has Endangered Citizens
Compared with other nations, the United States is disproportionately
attacked by terrorists— in terms of both number of attacks and casualties.
In 2001, according to the U. S. State Department's Patterns of Global
Terrorism 2001, anti-U. S. attacks accounted for 63 percent of terrorist
incidents worldwide. During the same year, attacks in North America
alone (the vast majority of the casualties were American citizens) accounted
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for 71 percent of the world's casualties caused by terrorist attacks. Why
do terrorists single out the United States?
Some observers argue that the United States is a lightning rod for
terrorists because it is a large, rich, capitalist nation; because it is a
constitutional republic whose citizens enjoy many freedoms; or because
American culture is pervasive and perceived as decadent by some groups.
Although those factors no doubt have some effect, a deeper analysis should
raise suspicions about them as significant causes for anti-U. S. terrorism.
Many other countries are large, rich, capitalist nations with republican
forms of government (for example, Germany and Japan), but they do not
experience the magnitude of terrorism that afflicts the United States. True,
American culture is pervasive, but American economic and political values
(that is, civil society) are the envy of the world. Absent the element of
U. S. government– driven military power, those values do not usually have
coercive or ill effects on other countries and are not generally resented.
Many analysts focus on perceived Islamic hatred of decadent American
culture. Yet more than one Zogby poll of numerous Islamic and Arab
countries has shown that majorities in those countries liked American
freedom, democracy, technology, and culture— including movies and tele-vision.
Conversely, overwhelming majorities disliked U. S. government
policies toward the Middle East. More important, if the goal is to uncover
the motivations of the radical Islamists who attack the United States (and
it should be, because that task is vital to both fighting and avoiding
terrorism but has been neglected because of its sensitivity), the best place
to start is with what Islamists say and write. For example, Peter Bergen,
the CNN correspondent who interviewed Osama bin Laden and wrote
Holy War, Inc., notes that bin Laden has never railed against the decadence
of American or Western culture. His hatred of America is generated by
U. S. foreign policy— his biggest bone of contention is the unnecessary
U. S. military presence in Saudi Arabia, which he believes desecrates
Islam's holiest sites located there.
Although some pundits have claimed that America is targeted by terror-ists
for '' who it is'' rather than '' what it does, '' even high-level U. S.
government sources admit a link between interventionist U. S. foreign
policy (that is, being the world's policeman) and retaliatory terrorist attacks
on U. S. targets.
That link was recognized in the upper levels of the U. S. government
long before the September 11 terrorist attacks. According to a study
completed in 1997 by the Defense Science Board, a panel of experts that
advises the secretary of defense:
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As part of its global power position, the United States is called upon
frequently to respond to international causes and deploy forces around the
world. America's position in the world invites attacks simply because
of its presence. Historical data show a strong correlation between U. S.
involvement in international situations and an increase in terrorist attacks
against the United States [emphasis added].
In an August 8, 1998, radio address justifying cruise missile attacks on
Afghanistan and Sudan in response to bin Laden's earlier bombings of
two U. S. embassies, President Bill Clinton admitted as much but put a
positive spin on it with political hyperbole: '' Americans are targets of
terrorism in part because we have unique leadership responsibilities in the
world, because we act to advance peace and democracy, and because we
stand united against terrorism. ''
Most striking of all is the post– September 11 '' National Strategy for
Homeland Security'' issued by the Bush White House's Office of Home-land
Security in July 2002:
For more than six decades, America has sought to protect its own sovereignty
and independence through a strategy of global presence and engagement.
In so doing, America has helped many other countries and peoples advance
along the path of democracy, open markets, individual liberty, and peace
with their neighbors. Yet there are those who oppose America's role in
the world, and who are willing to use violence against us and our friends.
Our great power leaves these enemies with few conventional options for
doing us harm. One such option is to take advantage of our freedom and
openness by secretly inserting terrorists into our country to attack our
homeland. Homeland security seeks to deny this avenue of attack to our
enemies and thus to provide a secure foundation for America's ongoing
global engagement.
What is astonishing is that after 60 years the aberration in American
history of acting as the world's policeman has become an end in itself.
It is even a higher goal than that which should be any government's
primary function— to make its territory and citizens safe and secure.
Profligate intervention in the affairs of other nations (the United States is
the only country in the world that regularly intervenes in every region of
the world) is not a national security policy— in fact, it is quite the opposite.
The Office of Homeland Security periodically issues '' duck and cover''
warnings to U. S. citizens at home, and the State Department does so
to U. S. tourists, expatriates, and business people abroad. But the U. S.
government's own actions are responsible for the disproportionate bull's-eye
that is being drawn around Americans.
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Extended Defense Perimeter Actually Increases the Vulnerability of the Homeland
During the Cold War the military paradigm of defending forward to
keep the adversary far away from the homeland made some sense. The
United States faced a foe with conventional military forces and reaped
advantages from ensuring that its opponent did not make inroads in certain
key strategic areas of the world. Although both superpowers possessed
nuclear weapons, the disadvantages of U. S. intervention overseas were
limited by the '' managed competition'' between the two behemoths that
avoided direct interventions in the other's regions of core concern. Now,
however, the disadvantages vastly outweigh any advantages gained from
profligate U. S. interventions in remote parts of the world that are no longer
strategic (if they ever were). The United States no longer has to check
the advances of another superpower and now faces an unconventional foe
in a war that has no front line. All of the layers of the extended U. S.
defense perimeter did not prevent al-Qaeda from carrying out a catastrophic
attack on the U. S. homeland and actually reduced U. S. security by generat-ing
much of the hatred that led to the attack. In short, the nontraditional
interventionist foreign policy on a grand scale— initiated during the Cold
War but abhorrent to U. S. policymakers for the prior 170 years— is now
out of date and profoundly dangerous.
What the United States Should Do about Terrorism
The U. S. government has several options for dealing with terrorism. The
possibilities include improving intelligence, enhancing homeland security
measures, increasing military and covert action against terrorists, and
reducing military and covert action. Even U. S. intelligence professionals
reach the disquieting conclusion that there will be more terrorist attacks
and that U. S. intelligence will not be able to detect some of them before
they happen. That conclusion is especially unnerving now that terrorists
are clearly willing to inflict mass casualties and are willing to give their
lives in the attack. It should be noted that the conventional means used
in the September 11 attacks are not the worst possibility; attacks with
chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons could be far more deadly.
The United States certainly should take measures to enhance homeland
security, but the public should not be lulled by all the official activity into
thinking that the U. S. government can do more than catch some of the
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attackers before they attack or reduce casualties at the margins after an
attack. The United States is one of the largest and most open societies in
the world— both in population and in area. The nation has thousands of
miles of borders, countless skyscrapers and sports stadiums, vulnerable
infrastructure, and a political system that prevents law enforcement's
behaving too aggressively in the fight against terrorism. Moreover, accord-ing
to the Defense Science Board, the problems of nuclear terrorism,
defense against the threat of biological and chemical weapons, and defense
against information warfare have historically been regarded as '' too hard''
to solve. Yet the U. S. government is now inculcating the American public
with a false sense that government can solve those problems.
Finally, the question of military and covert action needs to be addressed.
In the short term, the United States has no choice but to try to eradicate
bin Laden and the al-Qaeda terrorist network by using intelligence, law
enforcement, and, if necessary, military assets. In most nations (for exam-ple,
Yemen and Pakistan), the United States should first rely on supporting
local governments in their efforts to eradicate terrorists within their borders
and, if that proves insufficient or ineffective, then take direct military
action. But the United States should not get dangerously distracted in this
war against the enemy at the gates by military or covert actions against
terrorist groups that do not normally focus their attacks on the United
States (for example, Hezbollah or Hamas) or against rogue states that
cannot be linked to the September 11 attacks. Many foreign terrorist
organizations on the State Department's terrorism list do not focus their
attacks on the United States. Attacking them militarily or using covert
action (which the Bush administration has authorized) is simply stirring
the hornets' nest unnecessarily. The United States can continue to engage
in lower-profile regional cooperation in intelligence and law enforcement
with other nations to combat such groups.
Although narrowly focused military action will be needed in the short
term to expunge the threat from al-Qaeda, a policy of military restraint
should be adopted in the long term. Because improvements in intelligence
capabilities (particularly intelligence from human sources) and homeland
security measures will provide positive results only at the margins in the
detection, prevention, and mitigation of terrorist attacks, it is vital that the
United States lower its target profile vis-a `-vis terrorists. That goal can be
achieved by reducing the U. S. military presence abroad and intervening
militarily or politically only on the rare occasions when vital U. S. interests
are threatened.
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Specific Recommendations to Lessen U. S. Vulnerability to Terrorist Attacks
Remove the U. S. Military Presence from Saudi Arabia
The withdrawal of U. S. forces from the land of Islam's most holy sites
would remove an irritant that inflames Islamic terrorists to strike U. S.
targets but would not adversely affect other U. S. security interests. Even
if it were necessary to use the U. S. military to defend Persian Gulf oil—
and economists from across the political spectrum attest that it is not—
the United States did so successfully during the Gulf War in 1991 without
having a prior peacetime military presence in Saudi Arabia. Furthermore,
a substantial portion of U. S. military assets has already been moved to
surrounding countries because of restrictions on their use imposed by the
Saudi regime. Anonymously, even senior U. S. military officials have
expressed to the Washington Post a desire to withdraw U. S. forces from
Saudi territory.
Furthermore, it is ethically questionable to use U. S. forces to defend a
despotic regime with an abysmal human rights record that indirectly
supported al-Qaeda terrorists and directly supported the radical religious
schools in Pakistan that spawned those terrorists and the repressive Taliban
regime in Afghanistan that harbored them. The Saudi government also
makes the lives of American service personnel miserable by putting heavy
restrictions on their personal lives and their mingling with Saudi citizens.
Some observers would argue that withdrawing from Saudi Arabia would
hand bin Laden a victory by fulfilling his desire for a U. S. withdrawal.
That argument can be nullified as long as the United States neutralizes
most of the al-Qaeda network as U. S. forces pull back from Saudi Arabia.
In addition, according to the Washington Post, because of fears that the
American presence was destabilizing their regime by stirring up Islamic
militants, the Saudis have been on the verge of asking U. S. forces to
leave. The United States should take advantage of those sentiments as a
cover and quietly pull out its forces if asked to do so.
Develop a More Even-Handed Approach to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict by Cutting Off Military and Economic Aid to Israel
Unbalanced U. S. involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict inflames
the Islamic world and is a principal motive behind terrorist attacks by
Islamists on U. S. targets worldwide. The desire to assist a nation inclined
toward democracy is understandable, but doing so is no longer advisable
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Reducing the '' Lightning Rod'' Problem
given the possibility of retaliatory mass terrorist attacks, including the use
of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, on the U. S. homeland.
In attempting to mediate the negotiation of a settlement to an intractable
conflict, the United States is perceived by Arabs to be pushing the Palestin-ians
to end violence more than they are prodding Israel to do so. But both
sides in the struggle have used excessive violence against civilians. Those
excesses have made it even less likely that either side would be willing
to end the conflict. The United States should discontinue futile efforts to
pressure the parties to reach a settlement that neither wants and therefore
has little chance of succeeding. Both sides must indicate a strong willing-ness
to reach a settlement before the United States resumes mediation.
When the United States does so, its role should be strictly limited and
neutral. A much more modest and disinterested U. S. mediation role would
lower the U. S. target profile to Islamic terrorism.
End Comprehensive Economic Sanctions against Iraq
The most grinding and complete sanctions in world history should come
to an end. When economic sanctions are imposed, the target regime—
usually a despotic government that tightly controls its nation's political
and economic systems— usually transfers the pain of sanctions to the
poorest members of society and earns enormous profits from smuggling.
In addition, the sanctions create a strong '' rally-around-the-flag'' effect
for the regime against the nations that imposed the strictures. The embargo
also takes the blame for economic problems that are caused by the regime's
poor policies. In those ways, economic sanctions have the perverse effect of
actually strengthening the despotic government's hold on power. Although
counterintuitive, the best way to weaken a despotic regime is to get Western
products, services, and investment, and the ideas that go with them, into
the target nation. But that strategy will work only over the long term.
In the case of Iraq, the bone-crushing U. S.-led embargo has devastated
the Iraqi poor but made Saddam Hussein's regime stronger. The sanctions'
ill effects on Iraqi society have provoked radical Islamic elements all over
the world. The United States should break with conventional wisdom and
lead the world in scrapping the sanctions. By doing so, the United States
would lower the probability of retaliatory catastrophic terrorist attacks on
U. S. targets.
Stop Supporting Despotic Regimes in the Middle East
The Cold War is over, and supporting '' friendly'' authoritarian regimes,
such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, is no longer necessary (if it ever was).
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As noted before, other strategic reasons for supporting them— for example,
the great oil reserves in Saudi Arabia— are questionable. Saudi Arabia
and the other authoritarian Persian Gulf oil producers— which obtain the
vast bulk of their export earnings and foreign currency from the sale of
oil— are more desperate to sell the oil than the United States is to buy it.
The corruption of those regimes generates the hatred of radical Islamists,
as does U. S. support for those governments. As would implementing the
other three recommendations, ending support for such authoritarian nations
would lower the U. S. profile as a target for Islamic radicals.
Suggested Readings
Carpenter, Ted Galen. America Entangled: The Persian Gulf Crisis and Its Consequences. Washington: Cato Institute, 1991.
Carr, Caleb. Lessons of Terror: A History of Warfare against Civilians: Why It Has Always Failed and Why It Will Fail Again. New York: Random House, 2002.
Eland, Ivan. '' Does U. S. Intervention Overseas Breed Terrorism? The Historical Record. '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 50, December 17, 1998.
. '' Protecting the Homeland: The Best Defense Is to Give No Offense. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 306, May 5, 1998.
. '' Robust Response to 9/ 11 Is Needed but Poking the Hornets' Nest Is Ill-Advised. '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 69, December 18, 2001.
Hoffman, Bruce. Inside Terrorism. New York: Columbia University Press, 1998. Hoge, James F. Jr., and Gideon Rose, eds. How Did This Happen?: Terrorism and the
New Year. New York: Public Affairs, 2001.
Smith, James M., and William C. Thomas, eds. The Terrorism Threat and U. S. Govern-ment Response: Operational and Organizational Factors. U. S. Air Force Institute
for National Security Studies, March 2001. U. S. Department of State. Patterns of Global Terrorism 2001. Washington: U. S. Depart-ment
of State, May 2002.
—Prepared by Ivan Eland
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8. The Delegation of Legislative Powers
Congress should
require all '' lawmaking'' regulations to be affirmatively
approved by Congress and signed into law by the president, as the Constitution requires for all laws; and
establish a mechanism to force the legislative consideration of
existing regulations during the reauthorization process.
Separation of Powers: The Bulwark of Liberty
When the legislative and executive powers are united in the same person,
or in the same body of magistrates, there can be no liberty.
—Montesquieu, The Spirit of the Laws
Article I, section 1, of the U. S. Constitution stipulates, '' All legislative
powers herein granted shall be vested in the Congress of the United States,
which shall consist of a Senate and House of Representatives. '' Article
II, section 3, stipulates that the president '' shall take care that the laws
be faithfully executed. '' Thus, as we all learned in high school civics, the
Constitution clearly provides for the separation of powers between the
various branches of government.
The alternative design— concentration of power within a single govern-mental
body— was thought to be inimical to a free society. John Adams
wrote in 1776 that '' a single assembly, possessed of all the powers of
government, would make arbitrary laws for their own interest, and adjudge
all controversies in their own favor. '' James Madison in Federalist no.
47 justified the Constitution's separation of powers by noting that it was
a necessary prerequisite for '' a government of laws and not of men. ''
Further, he wrote, '' The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive,
and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of one, a few, or many, and
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whether hereditary, self-appointed, or elective, may justly be pronounced
the very definition of tyranny. ''
For the first 150 years of the American Republic, the Supreme Court
largely upheld the original constitutional design, requiring that Congress
rather than administrators make the law. The suggestion that Congress
could broadly delegate its lawmaking powers to others— particularly the
executive branch— was generally rejected by the courts. And for good
reasons. First, the Constitution was understood to be a document of enumer-ated
and thus limited powers, and nowhere was Congress either explicitly
or even implicitly given the power to delegate. Second, the fear of power
concentrated in any one branch still animated both the Supreme Court
and the legislature. Third, Americans believed that those who make the
law should be directly accountable at the ballot box.
The upshot was that the separation of powers effectively restrained
federal power, just as the Founders had intended. As Alexis de Tocqueville
observed, '' The nation participates in the making of its laws by the choice
of its legislators, and in the execution of them by the choice of agents of
the executive government. '' He also observed that '' it may also be said
to govern itself, so feeble and so restricted is the share left to the administra-tors,
so little do the authorities forget their popular origins and the power
from which they emanate. ''
The New Deal: '' Delegation Running Riot''
The sense of political crisis that permeated the 1930s effectively buried
the nondelegation doctrine. In his first inaugural address, Franklin Roose-velt
compared the impact of the ongoing economic depression to a foreign
invasion and argued that Congress should grant him sweeping powers to
fight it.
Shortly after taking office, Congress in 1933 granted Roosevelt virtually
unlimited power to regulate commerce through passage of the Agricultural
Adjustment Act (which authorized the president to increase agricultural
prices via administrative production controls) and the National Industrial
Recovery Act (known as the NIRA), which authorized the president to
issue industrial codes to regulate all aspects of the industries they covered.
The Supreme Court, however, temporarily arrested the tide in 1935 in
its unanimous opinion in A. L. A. Schechter Poultry Corp. v. United States.
The Court overturned the industrial code provisions of the NIRA, and, in
a separate opinion, Justice Benjamin Cardozo termed the NIRA— and
thus the New Deal—'' delegation running riot. '' That same year, the Court
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struck down additional NIRA delegations of power in Panama Refining
Co. v. Ryan.
Largely because of the Schechter and Panama Refining decisions, Presi-dent
Roosevelt decried the Court's interference with his political agenda
and proposed legislation enlarging the size of the Court so that he could
appoint additional justices— the so-called Court-packing plan. He lost that
battle but won the war. Although the Court never explicitly reversed its
1935 decisions and continues to articulate essentially the same verbal
formulas defining the scope of permissible delegation— indeed, Schechter
and Panama Refining theoretically are good law today— it would be
nearly 40 years before the Court again struck down business regulation
on delegation grounds.
As long as Congress articulates some intelligible standard (no matter
how vague or arbitrary) to govern executive lawmaking, courts today are
prepared to allow delegation, in the words of Justice Cardozo, to run riot.
John Locke's admonition that the legislature '' cannot transfer the power
of making laws to any other hands, for it being but a delegated power
from the people, they who have it cannot pass it over to others, '' is a
forgotten vestige of an era when individual liberty mattered more than
administrative convenience. As Federal District Judge Roger Vinson wrote
in United States v. Mills in 1989, '' A delegation doctrine which essentially
allows Congress to abdicate its power to define the elements of a criminal
offense, in favor of an un-elected administrative agency such as the [Army]
Corps of Engineers, does violence to this time-honored principle....
Deferent and minimal judicial review of Congress' transfer of its criminal
lawmaking function to other bodies, in other branches, calls into question
the vitality of the tripartite system established by our Constitution. It also
calls into question the nexus that must exist between the law so applied
and simple logic and common sense. Yet that seems to be the state of
the law. ''
Delegation: The Corrosive Agent of Democracy
The concern over congressional delegation of power is not simply
theoretical and abstract, for delegation does violence, not only to the ideal
construct of a free society, but also to the day-to-day practice of democracy
itself. Ironically, delegation does not help to secure '' good government'';
it helps to destroy it.
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Delegation Breeds Political Irresponsibility
Congress delegates power for much the same reason that Congress ran
budget deficits for decades. With deficit spending, members of Congress
can claim credit for the benefits of their expenditures yet escape blame
for the costs. The public must pay ultimately, of course, but through taxes
levied at some future time by some other officials. Likewise, delegation
allows legislators to claim credit for the benefits that a regulatory statute
airily promises yet escape the blame for the burdens it will impose, because
they do not issue the laws needed to achieve those high-sounding benefits.
The public inevitably must suffer regulatory costs to realize regulatory
benefits, but the laws will come from an agency that legislators can then
criticize for imposing excessive burdens on their constituents.
Just as deficit spending allows legislators to appear to deliver money
to some people without taking it from others, delegation allows them to
appear to deliver regulatory benefits without imposing regulatory costs.
It provides, in the words of former Environmental Protection Agency
deputy administrator John Quarles, '' a handy set of mirrors— so useful
in Washington— by which politicians can appear to kiss both sides of
the apple. ''
Delegation Is a Political Steroid for Organized Special Interests
As University of Miami law professor John Hart Ely has noted, '' One
reason we have broadly based representative assemblies is to await some-thing
approaching a consensus before government intervenes. '' The Con-stitution
was intentionally designed to curb the '' facility and excess of
law-making'' (in the words of James Madison) by requiring that statutes
go through a bicameral legislature and the president.
Differences in the size and nature of the constituencies of representatives,
senators, and the president— and the different lengths of their terms in
office— increase the probability that the actions of each will reflect a
different balance of interests. That diversity of viewpoint, plus the greater
difficulty of prevailing in three forums rather than one, makes it far more
difficult for special-interest groups or bare majorities to impose their will on
the totality of the American people. Hence, the original design effectively
required a supermajority to make law as a means of discouraging the
selfish exercise of power by well-organized but narrow interests.
Delegation shifts the power to make law from a Congress of all interests
to subgovernments typically representative of only a small subset of all
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interests. The obstacles intentionally placed in the path of lawmaking
disappear, and the power of organized interests is magnified.
That is largely because diffuse interests typically find it even more
difficult to press their case before an agency than before a legislature.
They often have no direct representation in the administrative process,
and effective representation typically requires special legal counsel, expert
witnesses, and the capacity to reward or to punish top officials through
political organization, press coverage, and close working relationships
with members of the appropriate congressional subcommittee. As a result,
the general public rarely qualifies as a '' stakeholder'' in agency proceed-ings
and is largely locked out of the decisionmaking process. Madison's
desired check on the '' facility and excess of law-making'' is thus smashed.
Delegation Breeds the Leviathan State
Perhaps the ultimate check on the growth of government rests in the
fact that there is only so much time in a day. No matter how many laws
Congress would like to pass, there are only so many hours in a session
to do so. Delegation, however, dramatically expands the realm of the
possible by effectively '' deputizing'' tens of thousands of bureaucrats,
often with broad and imprecise missions to '' go forth and legislate. '' Thus,
as Jacob Weisberg has noted in the New Republic, '' As a labor-saving
device, delegation did for legislators what the washing machine did for
the 1950s housewife. Government could now penetrate every nook and
cranny of American life in a way that was simply impossible before. ''
The Threadbare Case for Delegation
Although delegation has become so deeply embedded in the political
landscape that few public officials even recognize the phenomenon or the
issues raised by the practice, political observers are becoming increasingly
aware of the failure of delegation to deliver its promised bounty of good
government.
The Myth of Technical Expertise
It was once maintained that delegation produces more sensible laws
by transferring lawmaking from elected officials, who are beholden to
concentrated interests, to experts, who can base their decisions solely on
a cool appraisal of the public interest. Yet most agency heads are not
scientists, engineers, economists, or other kinds of technical experts; they
are political operatives. Since the Environmental Protection Agency's
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inception in 1970, for example, the overwhelming majority of its adminis-trators
and assistant administrators have been lawyers. As MIT professor
Michael Golay wrote in Science, '' Environmental protection policy dis-agreements
are not about what to conclude from the available scientific
knowledge; they represent a struggle for political power among groups
having vastly differing interests and visions for society. In this struggle,
science is used as a means of legitimizing the various positions . . . science
is a pawn, cynically abused as may suit the interests of a particular
protagonist despite great ignorance concerning the problems being
addressed. '' Perhaps that's why the EPA's own Science Advisory Board
was forced to concede in a 1992 report that the agency's science '' is
perceived by many people both inside and outside the agency to be adjusted
to fit policy. ''
We should not necessarily bemoan the lack of agency expertise, for it
is not entirely clear that government by experts is superior to government
by elected officials. There is no reason to believe that experts possess
superior moral knowledge or a better sense of what constitutes the public
good. Indeed, specialization often impairs the capacity for moral judgment
and often breeds professional zealotry. Likewise, specialized expertise
provides too narrow a base for the balanced judgments that intelligent
policy requires.
Although both agency administrators and legislators often lack the
expertise to evaluate technical arguments by themselves, they can get help
from agency and committee staff, government institutes (like the Centers
for Disease Control or the General Accounting Office), and private sources
such as medical associations, think tanks, and university scientists. After
all, that is what the hearings process is supposed to be about.
And only someone naive about modern government would seriously
claim today that the winds of politics blow any less fiercely in administra-tive
meeting rooms than they do in the halls of Congress. As Nobel
laureate economist James Buchanan and others have observed, public
officials have many incentives to pursue both private and political ends
that often have little to do with their ostensible missions.
Is Congress Too Busy?
New Dealers once argued that '' time spent on details [by Congress]
must be at the sacrifice of time spent on matters of the broad public
policy. '' But Congress today spends little time on '' matters of broad public
policy, '' largely because delegation forces Congress to spend a large chunk
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of its time constructing the legislative architecture— sometimes over a
thousand pages of it— detailing exactly how various agencies are to decide
important matters of policy. Once that architecture is in place, members
of Congress find that a large part of their job entails navigating through
those bureaucratic mazes for special interests jockeying to influence the
final nature of the law. Writing such instructions and performing agency
oversight to ensure that they are carried out would be unnecessary if
Congress made the rules in the first place.
Moreover, delegation often works to prolong disputes and keep stan-dards
of conduct murky because pressures from legislators and the compli-cated
procedures imposed upon agencies turn lawmaking into an excruciat-ingly
slow process. Agencies typically report that they have issued only
a small fraction of the laws that their long-standing statutory mandates
require. Competing interests devote large sums of money and many of
their best minds to this seemingly interminable process. For example, it
took the EPA 16 years to ban lead in gasoline despite the fact that the
1970 Clean Air Act explicitly gave them the authority to do so. Simply
making the rules the first time around in the legislative process would
take less time than the multiyear regulatory sausage machine requires to
issue standards.
Complex Rules for a Complex World
Perhaps the most widely accepted justification for some degree of
delegation is the complex and technical nature of the world we live in
today. As the Supreme Court opined in 1989, '' Our jurisprudence has
been driven by a practical understanding that in our increasingly complex
society, replete with ever changing and more technical problems, Congress
simply cannot do its job absent an ability to delegate power under broad
general directives. ''
Yet the vast majority of decisions delegated to the executive branch
are not particularly technical in nature. They are instead hotly political,
for the reasons mentioned above. If Congress must regulate, it could (and
probably should) jettison micromanagerial command-and-control regula-tions
that make up the bulk of the Federal Register and instead adopt
regulations that are less prescriptive and more performance based or market
oriented. Most regulatory analysts on both the left and the right agree that
this would also have the happy consequences of decreasing regulatory
costs, increasing regulatory efficiency, and decreasing the burden on regu-lators.
In addition, a Congress not skewed toward regulation by delegation
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would rediscover practical reasons for allowing many matters to be left
to state and local regulators.
Conclusion
Forcing Congress to vote on each and every administrative regulation
that establishes a rule of private conduct would prove the most revolution-ary
change in government since the Civil War— not because the idea is
particularly radical, but because we are today a nation governed, not by
elected officials, but by unelected bureaucrats. The central political issues
of the 108th Congress— the complex and heavy-handed array of regula-tions
that entangle virtually all manner of private conduct, the perceived
inability of elections to affect the direction of government, the disturbing
political power of special interests, the lack of popular respect for the
law, the sometimes tyrannical and self-aggrandizing exercise of power by
government, and populist resentment of an increasingly unaccountable
political elite— are but symptoms of a disease largely caused by delegation.
'' No regulation without representation! '' would be a fitting battle cry
for the 108th Congress if it is truly interested in fundamental reform of
government. It is a standard that both the left and the right could comfort-ably
rally around, given that many prominent constitutional scholars, policy
analysts, and journalists— from Nadine Strossen, president of the American
Civil Liberties Union, to former judge Robert Bork— have expressed
support for the end of delegation.
Some observers complain that voting on all regulations would over-whelm
Congress. Certainly, federal agencies do issue thousands of regula-tions
every year. However, the flow of new rules is no argument against
congressional responsibility. Congress could bundle relatively minor regu-lations
together and vote on the whole package. Both houses could then
give major regulations— those that impose costs of more than $100 million
annually— close scrutiny.
Of course, forcing Congress to take full and direct responsibility for
the law would not prove a panacea. The legislature, after all, has shown
itself to be fully capable of violating individual rights, subsidizing special
interests, writing complex and virtually indecipherable law, and generally
making a hash of things. But delegation has helped to make such phenom-ena,
not the exception, but the rule of modern government. No more
crucial— and potentially popular— reform awaits the attention of the
108th Congress.
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Suggested Readings
Anthony, Robert. '' Unlegislative Compulson: How Federal Agency Guidelines Threaten Your Liberty. '' Cato Policy Analysis no. 312, August 11, 1998.
Breyer, Stephen. '' The Legislative Veto after Chadha. '' Thomas F. Ryan lecture. George-town Law Journal 72 (1984).
DeLong, James. Out of Bounds— Out of Control: Regulatory Enforcement at the EPA. Washington: Cato Institute, 2002.
Lawson, Gary. '' Delegation and the Constitution. '' Regulation 22, no. 2 (1999). Lowi, Theodore. The End of Liberalism: The Second Republic of the United States. 2d
ed. New York: W. W. Norton, 1979. Schoenbrod, David. Power without Responsibility: How Congress Abuses the People
through Delegation. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1993.
Smith, Nick. '' Restoration of Congressional Authority and Responsibility over the Regu-latory Process. '' Harvard Journal on Legislation 33 (1996).
—Prepared by David Schoenbrod and Jerry Taylor
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9. Term Limits and the Need for a Citizen Legislature
Each member of Congress should
pledge to be a citizen legislator by limiting his or her time in
office to no more than three additional terms in the House of Representatives and no more than two additional terms in the
Senate and keep that pledge.
Americans are dissatisfied with Washington. For more than a generation,
polls have found a steady decline in the proportion of citizens who believe
Washington can be trusted to do what is right. Most people believe that
politics has nothing to do with their lives or that it is run for the benefit
of a few. Not surprisingly, a poll by Princeton Survey Research Associates
revealed that only 12 percent of the electorate have a great deal of confi-dence
in Congress as an institution.
Americans can reclaim their democracy. They can have a government
that is accountable to their will, a government for and by the people. They
can have a citizen legislature in Washington and in every statehouse in
America. Citizen legislators will make laws that make sense to ordinary
people and revive our national faith in representative government.
How can we have citizen legislatures? The power of office has virtually
put incumbents beyond the reach of the people. Restoring democracy
requires term limits for incumbents. All members of Congress should
pledge to limit their stay on Capitol Hill.
The People Support Term Limits
Members of Congress should listen to the good sense of the American
people on this issue. For years, national polls have found that three of
four voters support term limits. In a June 2000 poll by Diversified Research,
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Inc., 69 percent of Californians said that they still approved of the original
(1990) term limits initiative. In March 2002, a ballot initiative designed
to weaken California's term limits law was soundly defeated at the polls.
According to Paul Jacob, executive director of U. S. Term Limits, '' If the
people of this country got a chance tomorrow to vote on term limits for
members of Congress, you would see them rush to the nearest polling
place. ''
Indeed, the people have spoken loudly and clearly on term limits in
virtually all of the states that provide an opportunity to do so. Twenty-two
states representing nearly half of Congress had term limited their
delegations by 1994. The great majority of those states had opted to limit
their representatives to three terms, and all of those states had limited
their senators to two terms. Only 2 of the 22 states chose six terms for
the House.
In November 2000, Nebraska became the 19th state to limit the terms
of state legislators. By 2001, term limits had affected more than 700
legislative seats. The first 19 states passed term limits by an average of
67 percent of the vote (Table 9.1). Moreover, every effort by incumbents
to roll back term limits has been defeated by voters.
Despite the overwhelming support of the American people for term
limits, the incumbent establishment has made it extremely difficult for
the will of the people to be translated into law. When the Supreme Court
declared that states could not limit the terms of their representatives
in Washington, advocates of term limits petitioned the new Republican
Congress— which had put term limits in its Contract with America—
to pass a constitutional amendment to impose nationwide term limits.
Incumbent members of Congress had an obvious conflict of interest on
the issue, and they did not pass an amendment.
Take the Pledge
Americans believe term limits will make Congress a citizen legislature.
But a Congress controlled by career politicians will never pass a term
limits amendment. So the term limits movement, one of the most successful
grassroots political efforts in U. S. history, has set out to change Congress
from a bastion of careerism into a citizen legislature the best way it can—
district by district.
George Washington set the standard. Perhaps the most popular and
powerful American in history, Washington nevertheless stepped down
after two terms as president. He handed back to the people the immense
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Table 9.1 State Legislative Term Limits
Making a Difference One State at a Time
Limited: Terms Year Law Percentage
State Year (total years allowed) Takes Effect Voting Yes
Arizona 1992 House: 4 terms (8 years) House: 2000
Senate: 4 terms (8 years) Senate: 2000 74%
Arkansas 1992 House: 3 terms (6 years) House: 1998
Senate: 2 terms (8 years) Senate: 2000 60%
California 1990 Assembly: 3 terms (6 years) House: 1996
Senate: 2 terms (8 years) Senate: 1998 52%
Colorado 1990 House: 4 terms (8 years) House: 1998
Senate: 2 terms (8 years) Senate: 1998 71%
Florida 1992 House: 4 terms (8 years) House: 2000
Senate: 2 terms (8 years) Senate: 2000 77%
Louisiana** 1995 House: 3 terms (12 years) House: 2007
Senate: 3 terms (12 years) Senate: 2007 76%
Maine* 1993 House: 4 terms (8 years) House: 1996
Senate: 4 terms (8 years) Senate: 1996 68%
Michigan 1992 House: 3 terms (6 years) House: 1998
Senate: 2 terms (8 years) Senate: 2002 59%
Missouri 1992 House: 4 terms (8 years) House: 2002
Senate: 2 terms (8 years) Senate: 2002 75%
Montana 1992 House: 4 terms (8 years) House: 2000
Senate: 2 terms (8 years) Senate: 2000 67%
Nebraska 2000 Unicameral: 2 terms
(8 years) 2008 56%
Nevada 1994 Assembly: 6 terms (12 years) House: 2006
Senate: 3 terms (12 years) Senate: 2006 70%
Ohio 1992 House: 4 terms (8 years) House: 2000
Senate: 2 terms (8 years) Senate: 2000 66%
Oklahoma 1990 12-year combined total
for both houses 2002 67%
South Dakota 1992 House: 4 terms (8 years) House: 2000
Senate: 2 terms (8 years) Senate: 2000 64%
(continued)
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Table 9.1 (continued)
Limited: Terms Year Law Percentage
State Year (total years allowed) Takes Effect Voting Yes
Utah** 1994 House: 6 terms (12 years) House: 2006
Senate: 3 terms (12 years) Senate: 2006 n/ a
Wyoming*** 1992 House: 6 terms (12 years) House: 2004
Senate: 3 terms (12 years) Senate: 2004 77%
Average Percentage of Vote 67%
SOURCE: U. S. Term Limits, www. termlimits. org/ Current Info/ State TL/ Index. html.
Note: Italics indicate states limited by statute. All others are limited by state constitutional amendment.
*Maine's law is retroactive.
** Louisiana's and Utah's laws were passed by the state legislatures.
*** Wyoming's law was originally passed by initiative in 1994. The legislature amended the law to allow
members of the House to serve 12 years. A referendum to return to the original 6-year House limits garnered
54% of the vote but failed to get 50% plus 1 of all voters to veto the legislature.
power and trust they had given to him— dramatically making the case
that no one should monopolize a seat of power.
The tradition of a two-term limit for the president lasted uninterrupted
for almost a century and a half. When Franklin D. Roosevelt broke the
tradition, Congress moved to codify the term limit by proposing the
Twenty-Second Amendment to the Constitution, which the states ratified
in just 12 short months. The presidential term limit remains tremen-dously
popular.
We can establish such a tradition in Congress. Since 1994, several
dozen new faces have entered the halls of Congress serious about changing
the culture of Washington and after pledging to limit themselves to three
terms in the House or two terms in the Senate. Those pledges have
resonated with the voters who understand that a lawmaker's career interests
do not always coincide with the interests of the people back home. A poll
by Fabrizio-McLaughlin and Associates asked, '' Would you be more
likely to vote for a candidate who pledges to serve no more than three
terms in the House, or a candidate who refuses to self limit? '' Seventy-two
percent of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for
the self-limiter.
Self-limiters serve their constituents well. Rep. Matt Salmon of Arizona,
in reaffirming the pledge he made in 1994 to serve only three terms in
the House, said:
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The independence that comes from limiting my terms has enabled me to
vote against the bloated budget deal of 1997, and to challenge my own
party's leadership when I feel it would be best for the people of Arizona.
Instead of looking ahead to my own career in the House, I am able to put
my Arizona constituents first.
Self-limiters also resist Washington's culture of spending. They are
able to vote for spending limits because of the freedom of conscience
afforded by their term limit pledge. The self-limiters' collective experience
suggests that self-limitation helps to discipline a politician's legislative
behavior. Self-limiters exercise greater independence than their non-term-limited
peers and appear less fearful of incurring the wrath of either party
power brokers or special interest groups. During the past several years,
many self-limiters stood out as the most fiscally conservative members
of Congress.
Not surprisingly, self-limiters have spearheaded opposition to pork-barrel
spending and committee budget increases. They have demanded
honest accounting and pioneered the political push for real reform of
flawed government programs such as Social Security and Medicare— so
often used by professional politicians as political footballs.
Term Limits on Committee Chairs
Most laws begin life in congressional committees led by powerful chairs
who act as gatekeepers for floor votes on legislation. For decades, the
average tenure of a committee chair was about 20 years. The seniority
system allowed entrenched politicians from the least competitive districts
to wield power over other members, not on the basis of merit, but because
of their longevity. In the past, the only way to lose a chair was by death,
resignation, retirement, or electoral defeat.
The seniority system increased the level of pork-barrel spending and
blocked much needed change. For example, in a Cato Institute Policy
Analysis, '' Term Limits and the Republican Congress, '' Aaron Steelman
examined 31 key tax and spending proposals in the 104th and 105th
Congresses. He found that junior Republicans in Congress were '' more
than twice as likely to vote for spending or tax cuts as were senior
Republicans. '' Steelman pointed out that '' veteran Republican legislators
have proven they are comfortable with big government. It is unlikely that
fundamental change in Washington will occur while they continue to
control legislative debate and action. ''
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For those reasons, in 1995 the Speaker of the House decided to limit
the terms of House committee chairs to three terms, totaling six years.
Those limits are an important dent in a corrupt system. Term limits on
those powerful positions make the House more responsible and open the
way for newer members to influence policy. In 1996, the Republican caucus
imposed six-year limits on GOP committee chairs. As a consequence, some
changes have occurred on the traditional Senate leadership career path.
But the pace of change should be quickened, not slowed. The 108th
Congress should retain term limits on committee chairs in the House and
extend them to Senate committee chairs.
Why We Need a Citizen Legislature
Why are term limits so popular? Americans believe that career legislators
and professional politicians have created a gaping chasm between them-selves
and their government. For democracy to work, it must be representa-tive—
a government of, by, and for the people. Democracy in America
requires a citizen legislature.
To be a citizen legislator, a member of Congress should not be far
removed fromthe private sector. The members of the House of Representa-tives,
in particular, should be close to the people they represent. As
Rhode Island's Roger Sherman wrote at the time of our nation's founding:
'' Representatives ought to return home and mix with the people. By
remaining at the seat of government, they would acquire the habits of the
place, which might differ from those of their constituents. '' In the era of
year-round legislative sessions, the only way to achieve that objective is
through term limits.
What should be the limit on terms? Some observers have proposed as
many as six terms (or 12 years) for the House. Three terms for the House
is better for several reasons. America is best served by a Congress whose
members are there out of a sense of civic duty but who would rather live
their lives in the private sector, holding productive jobs in civil society,
far removed from government and politics. Such individuals might be
willing to spend two, four, or even six years in Washington, but not if
the legislative agenda is being set by others who have gained their authority
through seniority. Twelve-year '' limits, '' which amount to a mini-career,
do little to remove this major obstacle to a more diverse and representative
group of Americans seeking office.
We have solid evidence that short, three-term limits enhance the demo-cratic
process: Proposition 140 in California, which was passed by the
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voters there in 1990 and limited the state assembly to three two-year
terms. The 1992 assembly elections witnessed a sharp increase in the
number of citizens seeking office, with a remarkable 27 freshmen elected
to the 80-member lower house of the California legislature. In an article
on that freshman class, the Los Angeles Times said:
Among the things making the group unusual is that most of them are true
outsiders. For the first time in years, the freshman class does not include
an abundance of former legislative aides who moved up the ladder to
become members.... Among the 27 are a former U. S. Air Force fighter
pilot, a former sheriff-coroner, a paralegal, a retired teacher, a video store
owner, a businesswoman-homemaker, a children's advocate, an interior
designer, a retired sheriff's lieutenant, and a number of businessmen, law-yers,
and former city council members.
A scholarly study of the California legislature by Mark Petracca of the
University of California at Irvine found that the strict term limits Califor-nians
passed in 1990 had had the following consequences:
Turnover in both legislative chambers had increased markedly.
The number of incumbents seeking reelection had dropped sharply.
The percentage of elections in which incumbents won reelection had
dropped significantly.
The number of women in both houses had increased.
The number of uncontested races had declined.
The number of candidates seeking office in both chambers had
increased.
The winning margin of incumbents had declined.
While perhaps not attractive to people seeking to be career politicians, all
those developments please the great majority of Americans who favor a
return to citizen legislatures.
Similarly, a three-term limit for the U. S. House of Representatives will
return control of the House— not just through voting, but also through
participation— to the people. We must make the possibility of serving in
Congress a more attractive option for millions more Americans.
A second reason for shorter term limits is that the longer one is in
Congress, the more one is exposed to and influenced by the '' culture of
ruling'' that permeates life inside the Beltway. Groups like the National
Taxpayers Union have shown that the longer people serve in Congress,
the bigger spenders, taxers, and regulators they become. That is just as
true of conservatives as it is of liberals. It is also understandable. Members
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of Congress are surrounded at work and socially by people who spend
other people's money and regulate their lives. It is the unusual individual—
although such people do exist— who is not subtly but surely affected by
that culture.
Three terms rather than six would better serve as an antidote to the
growing '' professionalization'' of the legislative process. As Mark Petracca
has written:
Whereas representative government aspires to maintain a proximity of
sympathy and interests between representative and represented, profession-alism
creates authority, autonomy, and hierarchy, distancing the expert
from the client. Though this distance may be necessary and functional for
lawyers, nurses, physicians, accountants, and social scientists, the qualities
and characteristics associated with being a '' professional'' legislator run
counter to the supposed goals of a representative democracy. Professional-ism
encourages an independence of ambition, judgment, and behavior that
is squarely at odds with the inherently dependent nature of representative
government.
Finally, shorter limits for the House would enhance the competitiveness
of elections and, as previously noted, increase the number and diversity
of Americans choosing to run for Congress. The most competitive races
(and the ones that bring out the largest number of primary candidates)
are for open seats.
At least a third of all House seats would be open each election under
three-term limits, and it is probable that as many as half would not feature
an incumbent seeking reelection. We also know from past experience that
women and minorities have greater electoral success in races for open seats.
The members of a true citizen legislature literally view their time in
office as a leave of absence from their real careers. Their larger ambitions
lie in the private sector and not in expanding the ambit of government.
Citizen legislators are true public servants, not the new masters of the
political class.
State Legislative Term Limits Are Working
Term limits are taking effect all over the country in state legislatures—
and they are working. Term limits were intended to end careerism among
legislators. Scholarly research on the effects of term limits suggests that
they have substantially attained that goal. Congress should take note:
Term limits remain popular with state electorates long after their
introduction.
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Term limits stimulate electoral competition in state legislative
elections.
Term limits enable nontraditional candidates to run for seats in state
legislatures. Female, Hispanic, and Asian candidates find it easier to
enter term-limited legislatures than non-term-limited bodies.
Term limits weaken seniority systems in state legislatures.
Term limits have not strengthened interest groups, state bureaucracies,
or legislative staffs as predicted by critics of term limits.
Term limits foster public policies that serve to halt, or at least reduce,
the growth in the size and scope of government. Term-limited politi-cians
demonstrate greater respect than their non-term-limited col-leagues
for taxpayers' money.
Clearly, term limits are working. Congress can't hold out forever.
Conclusion
The term limits movement is not motivated by disdain for the institution
of Congress. It is motivated by a sincere desire on the part of the American
people to regain control of the most representative part of the federal
government. Resistance to this movement on the part of elected federal
legislators only underscores the image of an Imperial Congress.
Those who sign the Term Limits Declaration are on the record as citizen
legislators. Increasingly, that pledge will make the difference in winning
competitive seats in Congress. The seniority system, rotten at its core,
cannot survive a Congress where more and more members are under term
limits. Nor can wrong-headed policies and wasteful spending projects
survive a Congress with so many citizen legislators.
Term limits remain an issue to be reckoned with. Public support is
even stronger and deeper for candidates making personal term limits
commitments than for a term limits amendment. Voters seek to replace
career politicians with dedicated citizen legislators as the best solution to
what ails us in Washington. Political leaders who understand the problems
created by a permanent ruling elite in Washington— or who simply want
to abide by the overwhelming will of their constituents— will pledge to
serve no more than three additional terms in the House or two in the Senate.
Suggested Readings
Crane, Edward H., and Roger Pilon, eds. The Politics and Law of Term Limits. Washing-ton: Cato Institute, 1994.
Bandow, Doug. '' The Political Revolution That Wasn't: Why Term Limits Are Needed Now More Than Ever. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 259, September 5, 1996.
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Basham, Patrick, '' Assessing the Term Limits Experiment: California and Beyond, '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 413, August 31, 2001.
Carey, John M., Richard G. Niemi, and Lynda W. Powell. Term Limits in the State Legislatures. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2000.
Elhauge, Einer. '' What Term Limits Do That Ordinary Voting Cannot. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 328, December 16, 1998.
O'Keefe, Eric. Who Rules America? The People vs. the Political Class. Spring Green, Wis.: Citizen Government Foundation, 1999.
O'Keefe, Eric, and Aaron Steelman. '' The End of Representation: How Congress Stifles Electoral Competition. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 279, August 20, 1997.
Owings, Stephanie, and Rainald Borck. '' Legislative Professionalism and Government Spending: Do Citizen Legislators Really Spend Less? '' Public Finance Review 23
(2000). Steelman, Aaron. '' Term Limits and the Republican Congress. '' Cato Institute Briefing
Paper no. 41, October 27, 1998.
—Prepared by Edward H. Crane and Patrick Basham
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10. Campaign Finance, Corruption, and the Oath of Office
Congress should
repeal the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act of 2002,
reject proposals to mandate electoral advertising paid for by
the owners of the television networks, reform the Federal Election Commission to bring it under the
rule of law, and deregulate the current campaign finance system.
The 107th Congress passed the most sweeping new restrictions on
campaign finance in a generation, the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act
of 2002, marking them to take effect at the conclusion of the 2002 elections.
During much of the 108th Congress, the new law, challenged the day it was
signed, will be working its way through the judicial system. Meanwhile,
proponents of even more restrictions will be urging Congress to mandate
'' free'' political advertising for candidates and to replace the current
Federal Election Commission with a new agency modeled on the Federal
Bureau of Investigation.
The new law and the proposed changes in current law reflect the
mistaken assumptions of the so-called reformers. We begin by exposing
those flawed assumptions about corruption and American politics.
Freedom and Corruption
We begin, as we must, with the Constitution, which prohibits the govern-ment
from abridging freedom of speech. In the seminal case of Buckley
v. Valeo (1976), the Supreme Court recognized that restrictions on political
spending are restrictions on political speech:
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A restriction on the amount of money a person or group can spend on
political communication during a campaign necessarily reduces the quantity
of expression by restricting the number of issues discussed, the depth of
their exploration, and the size of the audience reached. This is because
virtually every means of communicating ideas in today's mass society
requires the expenditure of money.
Note that the Court did not say, '' Money equals speech. '' It said that
money is necessarily tied to speech in a society in which candidates
communicate to the voters through the mass media. Restricting political
spending thus restricts political speech just as surely as throttling the
speaker on the proverbial street corner soapbox limits speech. Both spend-ing
ceilings and strangulation shut off the medium of political expression
and thus the protected speech itself.
Unfortunately, contributions to campaigns do not enjoy the same consti-tutional
protections. In 1974, Congress imposed limits on campaign contri-butions
for the purpose of preventing '' corruption or the appearance of
corruption. '' Until recently those ceilings have governed American elec-tions
without being adjusted for inflation. BCRA raised the limits on
'' hard money'' contributions, but their real value remains well below the
ceilings enacted in 1974.
The lower protection provided for contributions makes little sense.
Political candidates spend money to obtain the means (often television
time) to get their messages across to voters; such spending, as noted
earlier, is properly protected speech. But contributors give to candidates
for the same reason— to enable candidates to obtain the means to advance
their views to the electorate. Thus, limiting contributions inevitably
'' reduces the quantity of expression by restricting the number of issues
discussed, the depth of their exploration, and the size of the audience
reached'' by the candidate.
What about corruption? Campaign finance reformers claim to be driven
by the desire to end corruption or its appearance. But what is the nature
of the corruption that concerns reformers? And just how much corruption
is there to be rooted out?
Clean government requires that public office not be sold— not for
money, not for personal gain, not even for elective office. Thus, money
is not the real issue, even if cases of corruption often involve money. The
issue, rather, is trust. Public office is a trust, solemnized by the oath of
office, through which officeholders swear to support the Constitution. That
oath obligates public officials to serve the general good, the good of all,
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as spelled out in the Constitution, a document intended to serve all the
people. When an officeholder sells his vote to a special interest for any
narrower reason, he appears, at least, to be breaching the trust he assumed
when he swore to support the Constitution. His oath entails an obligation
to avoid even the appearance of doing so.
As a practical matter, however, corruption requires us to distinguish
between appearance and reality. A member of Congress who votes for a
bill in exchange for some payoff is said to be corrupt. But if that same
member votes the same way because he believes he is serving the general
good, he is not thought to be corrupt. The same act may or may not be
corrupt depending on the reasons behind it. Yet reasons or motives, being
subjective, are notoriously difficult for others to determine, especially
when they are mixed. What are we to say when a member accepts a
campaign contribution from a special interest, votes as the interest wishes,
but does so because he genuinely believes he is voting for the general
good? After all, a particular good and the general good may coincide.
Until the federal law of 1974, we recognized the difficulties of discerning
corruption and chose to enact only limited rules addressing fairly clear
cases of favors granted for cash, what the Supreme Court has called quid
pro quo corruption. Judged by that standard, our legal system has found
rather less corruption in politics than the reformers would have us believe
exists. Social scientists also report scant evidence of corruption of the
legislature. One proponent of public financing concludes, '' Various studies
have failed to produce the sort of evidence of a strong correlation between
campaign donations and a representative's public actions needed to back
up suspicions of general quid pro quo understandings. '' Thus, the basic
premise of the campaign finance reform movement— that money corrupts
and more money corrupts even more— comes up short on the evidence.
Congressional Conflicts of Interest
The intense interest in the campaign finance regulation shown by mem-bers
of Congress— substantially greater than the interest shown by most
Americans— should hardly surprise. For no other issue today affects mem-bers
more directly— not taxes, not spending, not war or peace. Indeed,
campaign finance law bears directly on the ability of members to remain
in office. All the talk of good government aside, for many it is a matter
of job security. Thus, the high correlation between past campaign finance
legislation and reelection rates is no accident, for the temptation to write
the law to favor incumbents is palpable and inescapable.
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There, in stark relief, is the conflict of interest that every member of Congress faces when considering proposals to reform our campaign finance
law. Campaign finance regulation brings every member face to face with the problem of self-dealing— not only the self-dealing the regulations are
supposed to prevent but, more immediately, the self-dealing that is inherent in writing regulations not simply for oneself but for those who would
challenge one's power to write such regulations in the first place. Figure 10.1 graphically suggests the electoral consequences of having
the winners write the rules for financing congressional campaigns. Only one congressional election since 1974 has seen an incumbent
reelection rate lower than 90 percent. Even the '' revolution'' of 1994, which changed control of the House of Representatives, saw 90 percent
of incumbents reelected. The last three elections have seen reelection rates of over 98 percent.
Campaign finance restrictions may not fully explain the lack of competi-tion in American politics. But those restrictions encumber entry into the
political market and thus discourage credible challenges to incumbents. A challenger needs large sums to mount a campaign for public office,
especially at the federal level. He needs big money to overcome the manifest advantages of incumbency— name recognition, the power of
Figure 10.1 Reelection Rates of Congressional Incumbents, 1976– 2000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Reelection
Rate
SOURCES: Norman J. Ornstein, Thomas E. Mann, and Michael J. Malbin, Vital Statistics on Congress: 1999– 2000
(Washington: AEI Press, 2000), p. 57; and Cato calculations.
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office, the franking privilege, a knowledgeable staff, campaign experience,
and, perhaps most important, easy access to the media. Yet current law
limits the supply of campaign dollars: in any given election cycle, an
individual can give no more than $1, 000 to a candidate, and a political
party or a political action committee (PAC) can give no more than $5,000.
BCRA did raise the limit for individuals to $2,000. But again that remains
far less in real dollars than was allowed by the original 1974 law.
In a free and open political system, challengers would be able to do
what they used to be able to do— find a few '' deep pockets'' to get
themselves started, then build support from there, unrestrained by any
restrictions save for the traditional prohibitions on vote selling and vote
buying. That is how liberal Eugene McCarthy challenged an incumbent
president in 1968. It is how conservative James Buckley challenged an
incumbent senator and a major party challenger in 1970. Today, neither
would be able to do that— thanks to the '' reforms'' of 1974. Both would
incur massive compliance costs, including the risk of future litigation and
prosecution. Both would be discouraged, in all likelihood, from mounting
a challenge. That is not healthy for democracy.
BCRA makes things worse. By banning '' soft money''— unregulated
contributions given to the political parties— Congress has complicated
the lives of challengers. Parties have traditionally directed soft money
contributions to races in which challengers might have a chance. A Cato
Institute study found, not surprisingly, that state restrictions on giving to
parties (regulations similar to BCRA's soft money ban) reduce the overall
competitiveness of elections. At the same time, BCRA does not affect
donations by PACs, most of which go to incumbents. BCRA does loosen
federal contribution limits for incumbents running against self-funding
individuals. Apparently, contributions over $2,000 corrupt politics— unless
an incumbent faces a self-funding millionaire. That strains credulity. In
the end, BCRA seems little more than an incumbent protection law, a
monument to the dangers of self-dealing.
But conflict of interest does not end with the ban on soft money. For
several years now, interest groups have underwritten aggressive issue ads
criticizing members of Congress during their reelection campaigns. To be
sure, some of those ads have been unfair or inaccurate, but the Constitution
protects the right to be both. With the passage of BCRA, however, Congress
decided to regulate such issue advertising by redefining it as '' express
advocacy'' and hence as subject to federal election law, including contribu-tion
limits. In effect, Congress has decided to complicate the lives of its
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critics. Making issue ads subject to election law means the next election
will have fewer issue ads, less debate of public matters, and less criticism
of elected officials. Many experts think the Supreme Court will strike
down those restrictions on political speech. Congress might save the Court
the trouble by reconsidering its regulations.
Taxpayer Financing of Campaigns
Many people have argued that our system could preclude corruption
or its appearance by prohibiting all private contributions, whether desig-nated
as campaign contributions or not, and moving to a system of taxpayer-financed
campaigns. As a practical matter, how would a system of public
campaign financing work? Would incumbents and challengers receive
equal amounts of money? Given the extraordinary advantages of incum-bency
noted above, that would hardly level the playing field or respect
the democratic process. Then what is the right ratio? When Congress last
seriously debated taxpayer financing in 1997, the funding levels proposed
were not adequate. Law professor Bradley Smith, now a federal election
commissioner, assessed the 1997 proposal:
Every challenger spending less than the proposed limit in Senate campaigns
had lost in each of the 1994 and 1996 elections, whereas every incumbent
spending less than the limit had won. Similarly, only 3 percent of challengers
spending less than the proposed limit for House races had won in 1996,
whereas 40 percent of challengers spending more than that limit had won.
Taxpayer financing of congressional campaigns would only exacerbate
the conflict of interest faced by every member in writing campaign finance
regulations.
Proponents of campaign finance reform will likely propose that the
108th Congress enact mandatory political advertising paid for by the
owners of the television networks. Over the years, such proposals have
taken several forms; the latest would make the networks '' donate'' air
time, which would then be given to the political parties in the form of
vouchers. Thus, the shareholders of the companies that own the networks
effectively would be taxed to pay for this advertising. Proponents justify
such taxes as a fair price for the use of public property, the airwaves. In
fact, economist Thomas Hazlett has shown that government's claim to
'' ownership'' of the airwaves amounts to nothing more than imposing
political control over the media of radio and television. Even if we grant
for purposes of argument that the airwaves belong to the public, we might
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ask why the broadcasters have to pay for political advertising. After all,
trucking companies pay taxes for the upkeep of roads, but they are not
required to haul freight for members of Congress.
The Federal Election Commission
Not content to have passed BCRA, reformers now argue that the Federal
Election Commission has failed to enforce the old law, that the FEC will
undermine BCRA, and that Congress should replace the FEC with a
stronger agency— one with a law enforcement mission, a kind of Federal
Bureau of Investigation for elections and political campaigns.
The juxtaposition of the FBI and political campaigns should give imme-diate
pause. Do we want a federal law enforcement agency investigating
the campaigns of members of Congress and those who challenge them
for office? That is an invitation for political or partisan abuse. The late,
unlamented Independent Counsel statute comes immediately to mind. Do
members of Congress really want every detail of their last campaigns
subject to investigation by an agency controlled either by their political
enemies or the reformers themselves?
This does not mean the FEC should continue to exist. Congress should
get rid of the FEC as part of a broader deregulation of political speech
and electoral campaigns. Absent that, Congress should move to reform
the FEC to make its procedures comport with the rule of law.
Defendants before the FEC have few due process safeguards. When a
complaint comes before the commission, its general counsel makes the
case against the alleged lawbreaker, who has no right to appear before
the commission. The general counsel provides the commission with a
report that summarizes and criticizes the legal arguments of the accused
and is present to answer questions from the commissioners. Those reports
are not given to the accused even though they may contain new arguments
or information.
The FEC also sends out discovery subpoenas on the recommendation
of its general counsel. To contest a subpoena, a citizen must appeal to
the FEC itself, which turns the matter over to its Office of General Counsel.
Need we mention that the commission rarely grants motions to quash its
own subpoenas? Beyond that, the commission often will not provide the
accused with documents that might aid the defendant. How could all of
this accord with the rule of law?
The FEC has hardly been a pussycat in enforcing federal restrictions
on campaign finance. Like most burgeoning bureaucratic empires, it has
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continually tried to extend its regulatory authority. Consider issue advo-cacy.
In Buckley v. Valeo the Supreme Court said that the government
could regulate only those ads that expressly advocated the election or
defeat of a candidate. The First Amendment protects all other advocacy
about political issues.
The FEC has tried through most of its history to expand the meaning
of '' express advocacy'' beyond explicit words advocating the election or
defeat of a candidate. Time and again courts have rejected those grabs
for more power. Thus, in 1997 a federal court struck down an FEC
regulation redefining express advocacy, concluding that the commission's
argument that '' no words of advocacy are necessary to expressly advocate
the election of a candidate'' could not have been offered in good faith.
Far from weak, the FEC's stance on express advocacy has defied judicial
authority and tended toward lawlessness.
The FEC has attacked political speech in other ways as well. Thus, the
government can constitutionally regulate '' political committees. '' Some
people on the FEC argue that spending on issue advocacy, a protected
freedom, makes a group a political committee and thus subjects it to
regulation. In the Orwellian world of the FEC, a constitutional freedom
justifies government coercion. Federal law also regulates electoral activities
if they are coordinated with a candidate. The FEC has always pushed a
broad concept of coordination, the better to bring more political activity
under its control.
Not surprisingly those aggressive FEC attacks have chilled political
activities at the grassroots. After all, individuals and small groups hardly
have the resources to take on a bevy of specialized, zealous lawyers
supported by taxpayers. The FEC represents yet another expansive federal
bureaucracy that should be reined in by Congress in the near term and
eliminated over the long term.
The Real Problem
The laws we now have on the books have made our politics less
competitive by favoring incumbents over challengers, thereby striking at
the very heart of democratic government. The whole point of democracy,
after all, is to enable the people, through the ballot box, to select and
thereby control those who govern. To the extent that campaign finance
law undermines that power, it undermines democracy. Moreover, as we
will now see, to the extent that incumbency is correlated with ever-larger
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government, as studies repeatedly show, our present law exacerbates the
very problem it was meant to reduce— corruption.
We come, then, to the heart of the matter. The focus on campaign
finance reform is a distraction from the real issue, the ultimate source of
the potential for corruption— ubiquitous government. Government today
is a magnet for corruption of every form because it exercises vast powers
over virtually every aspect of life. Given that reality, is it any wonder that
special interests— indeed that every interest but the general— should be
trying either to take advantage of that or to protect themselves from it?
The Founders understood the problem of what they called '' factions. ''
They understood that interests would be tempted to capture government
for their own ends. To reduce that temptation, they wrote a constitution
that granted government only limited powers. They understood that the
best way to reduce corruption is to reduce the opportunities for corruption.
Far from forcing everyone to contribute to campaigns, the Founders
left individuals free to decide the matter for themselves— and free also
to decide how much to contribute. The Founders were mindful of the
potential for real corruption, which they left to traditional legal means to
ferret out. They had a pair of better ideas about how to handle the various
forms of corruption. The first was to rely on competition, to construct a
system that enabled interest to be pitted against interest. There is no
shortage, after all, of special interests. But if you fetter them all, through
some grand regulatory scheme, you stifle the natural forces that are neces-sary
for the health of the system. No individual, no committee of Congress,
no blue-ribbon committee of elders, can fine-tune the system of political
competition. It has to be free to seek its own equilibrium.
The second idea was equally simple, yet equally profound: limit power
in the first place, the better to limit the opportunities for corruption. After
all, if a member of Congress has only limited power to sell, there will be
limited opportunities to buy. That will not eliminate all corruption, of
course, but it will greatly reduce it.
Once we recognize the essential character of corruption— that it is a
breach of the trust that is grounded in the oath of office and, ultimately,
in the Constitution— it becomes clear that the problem is much broader
than is ordinarily thought, even if most such corruption should not be the
subject of regulation and prosecution. In fact, people who try to reduce
the issue to one of money— big money buying access— miss the larger
picture entirely. Money may induce a member to vote for an interest
narrower than the general good— the evidence notwithstanding— but when
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we ratified the Constitution we gave members the opportunity to do so
only to a very limited degree. In fact, it was because we understood, as
Lord Acton would later put it, that power tends to corrupt and absolute
power corrupts absolutely, that we so limited our officials. And we realized
that they would be tempted to breach their oaths of office not only for
money but for power as well— indeed, for the office itself. Thus, it was
not '' special interests'' alone that the Founders feared but the people too:
The Founders wanted to protect against the capture of government by that
ever-changing special interest known as '' the majority. '' For that reason
too— no, especially— they limited government's powers.
The problem with post– New Deal government, with its all but unlimited
power to redistribute and regulate at will, is that it virtually ensures that
members of Congress will act not for the general good, the good of all,
but for some narrower interest. Indeed, the modern state is premised on
'' corruption, '' for when it takes from some to give to others, it does not
serve the general good— and cannot, by definition. Thus, candidates find
themselves selling their office right from the start. When they promise
'' free'' goods and services from government, in exchange for votes, they
are selling their office, plain and simple: '' Vote for me and I'll vote to
give you these goods. '' That is where corruption begins. It begins with
the corruption— or death (the root of '' corruption''}— of the oath of office.
For not remotely does our Constitution authorize the kind of redistributive
state we have in this nation today (see Chapter 3 of this Handbook for a
detailed discussion).
To root out the kind of generalized corruption that is endemic to modern
government, then, one should begin not with more campaign finance
regulations but with the Constitution and the oath of office. The Constitu-tion
establishes a government of delegated, enumerated, and thus limited
powers. It sets forth powers that are, as Madison put it in Federalist no.
45, '' few and defined. '' Thus, it addresses the problem of self-dealing by
limiting the opportunities for self-dealing. If Congress has only limited
power to control citizens' lives— if citizens are otherwise free to plan and
live their own lives— there is little power for members of Congress to
sell, whether for cash, for perquisites, or for votes.
Before they take the solemn oath of office, therefore, members of
Congress should reflect on whether they are swearing to support the
Constitution as written and understood by those who wrote and ratified
it or the Constitution the New Deal Court discovered in 1937. The contrast
between the two could not be greater. One was written for limited govern-106
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Campaign Finance, Corruption, and the Oath of Office
ment; the other was crafted for potentially unlimited government. As that
potential has materialized, the opportunities for corruption of every kind
have become ever more manifest, as members know only too well. Indeed,
to appreciate the point, we need only notice the corruption that is endemic to
totalitarian systems— the ultimate redistributive states— despite draconian
sanctions against it. It goes with ubiquitous government.
Conclusion
In most cases, therefore, the answer to the corruption that is thought
to attend our system of private campaign financing is not more campaign
finance regulations but fewer such regulations. The limits on campaign
contributions, in particular, should be removed, for they are the source of
many of our present problems. More generally, however, the opportunities
for corruption that were so expanded when we abandoned constitutionally
limited government need to be radically reduced. Members of Congress can
do that by taking the Constitution and their oaths of office more seriously.
Suggested Readings
Basham, Patrick. '' It's the Spending, Stupid! Understanding Campaign Finance in the Big Government Era. '' Cato Institute Briefing Paper no. 64, July 18, 2001.
BeVier, Lillian R. '' Campaign Finance 'Reform' Proposals: A First Amendment Analy-sis. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 282, September 4, 1997.
Hazlett, Thomas W. '' The Rationality of U. S. Regulation of the Broadcast Spectrum. '' Journal of Law and Economics 33 (April 1990): 133– 75.
LaRaja, Ray, and Thad Kousser. '' The Effect of Campaign Finance Laws on Electoral Competition: Evidence from the States. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 426,
February 14, 2002. Pilon, Roger. '' Freedom, Responsibility, and the Constitution: On Recovering Our Found-ing
Principles. '' Notre Dame Law Review 68 (1993). Smith, Bradley A. '' Campaign Finance Regulation: Faulty Assumptions and Undemo-cratic
Consequences. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 238, September 13, 1995. . Unfree Speech: The Folly of Campaign Finance Reform. Princeton, N. J.:
Princeton University Press, 2001. Smith, Bradley A., and Stephen M. Hoersting. '' A Toothless Anaconda: Innovation,
Impotence and Overenforcement at the Federal Election Commission. '' Election Law Journal 1 (2002): 145– 71.
—Prepared by Roger Pilon and John Samples
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11. Reclaiming the War Power
Congress should
insist that U. S. armed forces not be deployed to areas where
hostilities are likely or imminent unless and until both houses of Congress have approved such action,
defund any such deployment that lacks the prior approval of
Congress, insist that hostilities not be initiated by the executive branch
unless and until Congress has authorized such action, and oppose any effort to reshape national security doctrine in a
manner that denies congressional supremacy over the war power.
The horror of September 11, 2001, changed many things: it ended a
certain American innocence and sense of invincibility; it taught Americans
that those who hate us could strike at us on our own soil; and it provided
ample justification for defending ourselves by waging war on al-Qaeda
and its nation-state allies. It did not, however, amend the Constitution.
Indeed, President Bush has repeatedly made it clear that the fight against
terrorists is a fight to maintain our free institutions and the way of life
they sustain. Six days after the destruction of the World Trade Center and
the attack on the Pentagon, President Bush issued a proclamation in honor
of our Constitution. In it, he declared that '' today, in the face of the
terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, we must call upon, more than
ever, the Constitutional principles that make our country great. ''
No constitutional principle is more important than the principle that the
war power belongs to Congress. In affairs of state, no more momentous
decision can be made than the decision to go to war. For that reason, in
a democratic republic it is essential that that decision be made by the most
broadly representative body: the legislature. As James Madison put it: '' In
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no part of the constitution is more wisdom to be found, than in the clause
which confides the question of war or peace to the legislature, and not to
the executive department. ''
The Constitutional Framework
Under the Constitution as Madison and the other Framers designed it,
the president lacks the authority to initiate military action. In the Framers'
view, absent prior authorization by Congress, the president's war powers
were purely reactive; if the territory of the United States or U. S. forces
were attacked, the president could respond. But he could not undertake
aggressive actions without prior congressional authorization.
On August 17, 1787, the Constitutional Convention considered the
recommendation of the Committee of Detail that the legislature should
have sole power '' to make war. '' Only one delegate, South Carolina's
Pierce Butler, spoke in favor of granting that authority to the executive.
As Madison's notes from the convention tell us, Butler's proposal was
not warmly received. '' Mr. [Elbridge] Gerry [of Massachusetts said he]
never expected to hear in a republic a motion to empower the Executive
alone to declare war. '' For his part, George Mason of Virginia '' was agst.
giving the power of war to the Executive, because not to be trusted with
it. . . . He was for clogging rather than facilitating war. ''
However, the delegates did take seriously the objection, raised by
Charles Pinckney of South Carolina, that the House of Representatives
was too large and unwieldy, and met too infrequently, to supervise all the
details attendant to the conduct of a war. For that reason, '' Mr. M[ adison]
and Mr. Gerry moved to insert 'declare, ' striking out 'make' war; leaving
to the Executive the power to repel sudden attacks. '' Roger Sherman of
Connecticut '' thought [the proposal] stood very well. The Executive shd.
be able to repel and not to commence war. '' The motion passed.
The document that emerged from the convention vests with Congress
the bulk of the powers associated with military action, among them the
powers '' to declare War, [and] grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal. ''
Other important war-making powers include the power '' to raise and
support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for
a longer Term than two years, '' and '' to provide for calling forth the
Militia to execute the Laws of the Union, suppress Insurrections and repel
invasions. ''
Significantly, several of the enumerated powers allocated to Congress
involve the decision to initiate military action. Viewed in this light, Con-110
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gress's power to issue letters of marque and reprisal and its power to call
out the militia inform our understanding of Congress's authority to declare
war. A letter of marque and reprisal is a legal device (long fallen into
disuse) empowering private citizens to take offensive action against citizens
of foreign countries, usually privateers attacking ships. Since military
attacks carried out by American citizens might well be considered acts
of war by foreign powers, and accordingly embroil the United States in
hostilities, the Constitution vests the important decision to grant this power
in the most deliberative body: the legislature. Similarly, Article I, section
8, gives Congress power over the militia, allowing Congress to decide when
domestic unrest has reached the point where military action is required.
In contrast, the authority granted to the executive as commander in
chief of U. S. Armed Forces is entirely supervisory and reactive. The
president commands the Army and Navy, should Congress choose to
create them, and leads them into battle, should Congress choose to declare
war. He commands the militia to suppress rebellions, should the militia
be '' called into the actual Service of the United States. '' In this, as Hamilton
noted in Federalist no. 69, the president acts as no more than the '' first
General'' of the United States. And generals, it should go without saying,
are not empowered to decide with whom we go to war. The Constitution
leaves that decision to Congress. As Constitutional Convention delegate
James Wilson explained to the Pennsylvania ratifying convention: '' This
system will not hurry us into war; it is calculated to guard against it. It
will not be in the power of a single man, or a single body of men, to
involve us in such distress; for the important power in declaring war is
vested in the legislature at large. ''
War with Iraq
Given that constitutional framework, the yearlong debate about war
with Iraq left a lot to be desired. Bush administration officials proceeded
as if no authorization were necessary. Then, in August 2002, the White
House Counsel's Office brazenly insisted that the administration already
had congressional authorization for Gulf War II, in the form of the 1991
joint resolution that authorized the first Persian Gulf War. How could a
resolution passed in 1991 to give a previous president authority to expel
Saddam Hussein from Kuwait authorize another president to take Baghdad
11 years later? A good question, the answer to which was not at all apparent
in the 1991 resolution. Such tendentious stretching of legal authority might
have been appropriate for a trial lawyer zealously pressing his client's
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interest. But for a president sworn to uphold the Constitution, and seeking
legal justification to lead troops into battle, something more than clever
'' lawyering'' was required: new and independent authorization for a
new war.
To its credit, the administration eventually sought, and secured, congres-sional
authorization for use of force against Iraq. It did so despite the fact
that some prominent members of Congress did not want to be burdened
with the vast responsibility the Constitution places on their shoulders.
Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott (R-Miss.), for instance, treated the
Democrats' push for congressional authorization as a partisan annoyance
rather than a solemn constitutional duty, calling it '' a blatant political
move that's not helpful. ''
In some ways, this is nothing new. Throughout the 20th century, congres-sional
control of the war power eroded, not simply as a result of executive
branch aggrandizement, but also because of congressional complicity. The
imperial presidency continues to grow, largely because many legislators
want to duck their responsibility to decide the question of war and peace;
delegate that responsibility to the president; and reserve their right to
criticize him, should military action go badly.
Indeed, even in authorizing the president to use force, Congress
attempted to shirk its responsibility to decide on war. After voting for the
resolution, which gave the president all the authority he needs to attack
Iraq should he choose to do so, prominent members of Congress insisted
they hadn't really voted to use force. That was for the president to decide.
As Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S. D.) put it: '' Regardless of
how one may have voted on the resolution last night, I think there is an
overwhelming consensus . . . that while [war] may be necessary, we're
not there yet. ''
It is not for the president to decide whether we are '' there yet. '' The
Constitution leaves that question to Congress. Thus far in the war on
terror, though, Congress has dodged that responsibility, delegating it to
the president. The use-of-force resolution Congress passed immediately
after September 11, 2001, contains an even broader delegation of authority
to the president, authorizing him to make war on '' those nations, organiza-tions,
or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided
the terrorist attacks that occurred on Sept. 11, 2001, or harbored such
organizations or persons'' [emphasis added]. By its plain terms, the resolu-tion
leaves it to the president to decide when the evidence that a target
nation has cooperated with al-Qaeda justifies war. President Bush has
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exercised that authority in good faith so far, declining to argue that the
flimsy evidence of a Saddam– al-Qaeda connection permits him to attack
Iraq under the September 14, 2001, resolution. But if Congress wants a
say on whether we should go to war with Iran, Syria, Lebanon, or any
number of other nations the president may target in the future, it will have
a difficult case to make.
Such broad delegations of legislative authority are constitutionally sus-pect
in the domestic arena; surely they are no less so when it comes to
questions of war and peace. As Madison put it:
Those who are to conduct a war cannot in the nature of things, be proper
or safe judges, whether a war ought to be commenced, continued, or
concluded. They are barred from the latter functions by a great principle
in free government, analogous to that which separates the sword from the
purse, or the power of executing from the power of enacting laws [emphasis
in original].
Preemptive Wars
The administration's new security doctrine, which emphasizes preemp-tive
military strikes, may have equally troubling consequences for congres-sional
control over the war power. Under the new doctrine, rogue nations
in the process of developing nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons will
be vulnerable at any time to sudden attack by the United States. In a
graduation speech given at West Point on June 1, 2002, President Bush
discussed the new strategy: '' The war on terror will not be won on the
defensive, '' he said, '' we must take the battle to the enemy . . . [and]
be ready for preemptive action when necessary. '' The administration
formalized the policy in the National Security Strategy of the United
States of America, released in September. That document does not discuss
whether preemptive wars will be conducted pursuant to congressional
authorization or launched unilaterally as surprise attacks by the president.
In the case of Iraq, which may be the administration's first preemptive
war, the president has not used the doctrine as an excuse to bypass the
constitutional requirement of congressional authorization. But the develop-ment
of the doctrine must be carefully monitored by this Congress and
future ones, lest it become a pretext for unilateral presidential war making.
Granted, the Constitution does not categorically rule out unilateral mili-tary
action by the president. No one would argue that, when missiles are
in the air or enemy troops are landing on our shores, the president is
obliged to call Congress into session before he can respond. As Madison's
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notes from the Constitutional Convention make clear, the constitutional
consensus about war powers was that, though Congress had the power to
'' commence war, '' the president would have '' the power to repel sudden
attacks. '' Within that power, there's some latitude for preemptive strikes.
If a rogue state plans a nerve gas attack on the New York subway system,
the president need not and should not wait until enemy agents are ashore
to order military action.
But if the preemptive strike doctrine morphs into a freestanding justifica-tion
for presidential wars, that will have grave consequences for the
constitutional balance of power. The doctrine applies whether or not any
specific attack on the United States is planned and whether or not U. S.
intelligence can establish with any certainty that the target has weapons
of mass destruction (WMD). It could be used by this administration or
future ones to avoid the inconvenient task of securing authority from
Congress. That would change the president's constitutional power to repel
sudden attacks into a dangerous and unconstitutional power to launch
sudden attacks.
Moreover, such a power would be ripe for abuse. Firm evidence of
WMD capability is very hard to come by— indeed, in the case of Iraq,
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld doubts that even an intensive, on-the-
ground inspection regime, such as the United Nations operated in Iraq
until December 1998, could determine with any degree of certainty what
Saddam's WMD capabilities are. Justifications for preemptive wars will
necessarily be speculative and susceptible to manipulation. The potential
for politically driven attacks would be enormous.
Public opinion polls indicate that Americans view President Bush as a
person of integrity and reward him with a high level of public trust. But
Bush will not be the last president to wield the broad new powers his
administration is forging in the domestic and foreign affairs arenas. As
Rumsfeld has noted, the war on terror will take years, and if and when
victory is achieved, we may not know with any certainty that we've won.
Our entire constitutional system repudiates the notion that electing good
men is a sufficient check on abuse of power. As President Bush himself
noted in his September 17 proclamation: '' In creating our Nation's Consti-tutional
framework, the Convention's delegates recognized the dangers
inherent in concentrating too much power in one person, branch, or institu-tion.
'' It's imperative that the 108th Congress resist the tendency to concen-trate
power and the further growth of the imperial presidency.
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Suggested Readings
Fisher, Louis. Congressional Abdication on War and Spending. College Station: Texas A& M University Press, 2000.
. Presidential War Power. Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 1995. Healy, Gene. '' Arrogance of Power Reborn: The Imperial Presidency and Foreign Policy
in the Clinton Years. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 389, December 13, 2000. Levy, Leonard W. Original Intent and the Framers' Constitution. New York: Macmil-lan,
1988. Schlesinger, Arthur. The Imperial Presidency. Boston: Houghton-Mifflin, 1973.
Wormuth, Francis D., and Edwin B. Firmage. To Chain the Dog of War. Dallas: Southern Methodist University Press, 1986.
—Prepared by Gene Healy
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12. USA PATRIOT Act and Domestic Detention Policy
Congress should
tighten the PATRIOT Act's requirements for advance judicial
approval and judicial review; impose a shorter-term sunset clause on all provisions of the
PATRIOT Act; exclude ordinary criminal activities from coverage of the
PATRIOT Act; establish rules that govern detention of citizens and noncitizens
suspected of terrorist links; and ensure that domestic detainees have access to counsel and
judicial review.
USA PATRIOT Act
Government is legitimately charged with defending life, liberty, and
property against both domestic and foreign predators. First among those
obligations is to protect life. With America under attack, and lives at risk,
civil liberties cannot remain inviolable. But that does not mean civil
liberties can be arbitrarily flouted without establishing, first, that national
security interests are compelling and, second, that those interests can be
vindicated only by encroaching on individual rights. Some parts of the
PATRIOT Act do not pass that test.
Proponents of the new bill surely understood that many of its provisions
were incompatible with civil liberties. Yet rather than modify the offending
provisions, the president and Congress decided to promote the bill as an
expression of patriotism. Hence the acronym— USA PATRIOT— and its
bloated title, Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate
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Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism. The sales pitch
worked. Fearful of being labeled disloyal after the atrocities of September
11, 2001, the House endorsed the bill 357 to 66, followed by a 98-to-1
romp through the Senate, with only Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) in opposition.
From its initial draft to its final adoption, the PATRIOT Act zipped
through in six weeks— less time than Congress typically spends on routine
bills that raise no constitutional concerns. Congress's so-called deliberative
process was reduced to this: closed-door negotiations, no conference com-mittee,
no committee reports, no final hearing at which opponents could
testify, not even an opportunity for most of the legislators to read the 131
single-spaced pages about to become law. Indeed, for part of the time,
both the House and Senate were closed because of the anthrax scare;
congressional staffers weren't able to retrieve their working papers.
The negligible legislative record will make it difficult for courts to
determine the intent of Congress. And because legislative intent matters
to some judges— for example, Supreme Court Justices Stephen Breyer
and David Souter— the PATRIOT Act might ultimately be invalidated as
unconstitutionally vague. Ironically, Congress's rush job, which facilitated
passage of the bill, could be the cause of the bill's downfall. The same
law that was promoted as an act of patriotism might even provide a
rationale for releasing madmen who committed horrific acts against the
United States.
Yet the more acute objections to the new statute are substantive, not
procedural. They fall into three main categories. First, any law with the
potential to dramatically alter conventional notions of individual freedom
should fastidiously guard against abuse. The doctrine of separation of
powers has been a traditional buffer against such abuse. Requiring advance
judicial authorization of executive actions, followed by judicial review to
ensure that those actions have been properly performed, shields our liberties
from excessive concentrations of power in a single branch of government.
Under the PATRIOT Act, however, the locus of power is unmistakably
the executive branch. In some cases, law enforcement officials have access
to business and personal records without advance judicial notice or subse-quent
judicial review. In other cases— voicemail retrieval is an example—
advance approval is necessary, but the requisite court order can be obtained
with a minimal showing of relevancy. That same low standard governs
traces of Internet surfing and e-mail. Equally objectionable, under sec.
213 of the act, secret '' sneak and peek'' searches of physical property
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able'' time after the search has occurred. No knowledge means no opportu-nity
to contest the validity of the search, including such obvious infractions
as rummaging through office drawers when the warrant authorizes a garage
search, or even searching the wrong address.
Second, the new rules are defended as a necessary instrument of anti-terrorism.
If so, why do many of the provisions apply not only to suspected
terrorist acts but also to everyday national security investigations and even
ordinary criminal matters? In effect, our government has used the events
of September 11 to impose national police powers that skirt time-honored
constraints on the state. The executive branch will not always wield its
new powers in the service of ends that Americans find congenial.
To illustrate, the PATRIOT Act expands the Foreign Intelligence Sur-veillance
Act (FISA)— a Carter-administration program that created a
special federal court to approve electronic surveillance of citizens and
resident aliens alleged to be acting on behalf of a foreign power. Previously,
the FISA court granted surveillance authority if foreign intelligence was
the primary purpose of an investigation. No longer. Under sec. 218 of the
PATRIOT Act, foreign intelligence need only be a '' significant'' purpose
of an investigation. That sounds like a trivial change, but it isn't. Because
the standard for FISA approval is lower than '' probable cause, '' and
because FISA now applies to ordinary criminal matters if they are dressed
up as national security inquiries, the new rules could open the door to
circumvention of the Fourth Amendment's warrant requirements. The
result: rubber-stamp judicial consent to phone and Internet surveillance,
even in regular criminal cases, and FBI access to medical, educational,
business, and other records that conceivably relate to foreign intelli-gence
probes.
Third, laws that compromise civil liberties must be revisited periodically
to ensure that temporary measures, undertaken in response to a national
security emergency, do not endure longer than necessary. Such laws must
contain sunset clauses; that is, the law should expire automatically within
a short time of enactment— thus imposing on government the continuing
obligation to justify its intrusions. In this instance, the Bush administration
rejected any sunset provision whatsoever. Congress demurred and insisted
on including such a provision, but it applied only to new wiretap and
surveillance powers, not to the whole bill. Moreover, the sunset date was
fixed at December 31, 2005— more than four years after passage of the
legislation. Plainly, a shorter time frame— say, two years— would have
been appropriate. If the emergency persisted, Congress and the president
could reenact the law.
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Detention of Noncitizens in the United States
The PATRIOT Act also raises questions about detention of noncitizens
in the United States. Under sec. 412 of the act, the attorney general can
detain, for seven days, noncitizens suspected of terrorism. After seven
days, deportation proceedings must commence or criminal charges must
be filed. Originally, the Justice Department had asked for authority to detain
suspects indefinitely without charge. Congress could not be persuaded to
go along. But the final bill, for all practical purposes, allows expanded
detention simply by charging the detainee with a technical immigration
violation. If a suspect cannot be deported, he can still be detained if the
attorney general certifies every six months that national security is at stake.
Underlining the magnitude and scope of that problem, the Wall Street
Journal reported on November 1, 2001, that seven Democrats had filed
Freedom of Information Act requests for a detailed accounting from Attor-ney
General John Ashcroft on the status of roughly 1,200 detainees, mainly
in New York and New Jersey. The lawmakers mentioned that some
detainees had reportedly '' been denied access to their attorneys, proper
food, or protection from . . . physical assault. '' Some of them were alleg-edly
being held in solitary confinement even though they hadn't been
charged with any criminal offense. According to a representative of the
New York Legal Aid Society, several Arab detainees had been limited
to one phone call per week to a lawyer and, if the line was busy, they
had to wait another week. On November 25, the New York Times cited
a senior law enforcement official who said that just 10 to 15 of 1,200
detainees were suspected al-Qaeda sympathizers. The government had not
found evidence linking a single one of them to the September 11 attacks.
Whether or not those reports proved accurate, it was time for the
government to supply some answers. Here's what the Washington Post
had to say in an October 31, 2001, editorial criticizing the Justice Depart-ment
for resisting legitimate requests for information on the detainees:
'' The questions are pretty basic. How many of the 1,000-plus are still in
custody? Who are they? What are the charges against them? What is the
status of their cases? Where and under what circumstances are they being
held? The department refuses not only to provide the answers but also to
give a serious explanation of why it won't provide them. ''
Eight months later, the Justice Department still had not identified the
remaining detainees. A department spokesman said only that fewer than
400 were still in custody— 74 for immigration violations, 100 who had
been criminally charged, 24 held as material witnesses, and 175 awaiting
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deportation. They had been denied legal counsel, access to their families,
and details of pending charges, if any. In effect, nearly 400 detainees
remained in legal limbo as the first anniversary of September 11 rapidly
approached.
Ultimately, the Supreme Court may have to clarify how the civil liberties/
national security tradeoff will unfold. Two terms ago, in Zadvydas v. Davis,
the Court held that immigrants who have committed crimes cannot
be detained indefinitely; they must be deported within a reasonable period
or released. Moreover, said the Court, temporary and even illegal immi-grants,
not just U. S. citizens, are entitled to due process. Still, the Court
noted that different rules may apply to immigrants who are suspected of
terrorism or considered national security risks.
Thus, the law is murky, and the legislation passed in the aftermath of
September 11 adds new elements of uncertainty. Nonetheless, the control-ling
principle is unambiguous. Any attempt by government to chip away at
constitutionally guaranteed rights must be subjected to the most painstaking
scrutiny to determine whether less invasive means could accomplish the
same ends.
Detention of U. S. Citizens
Yaser Esam Hamdi is also in legal limbo. He was raised in Saudi
Arabia, captured in Afghanistan, sent to Guantanamo, then transferred to
a Norfolk, Virginia, military brig after the Defense Department learned
that he was a U. S. citizen, born in Louisiana. Hamdi is being detained
indefinitely, without seeing an attorney, even though he hasn't been
charged with any crime. Jose´ Padilla, who allegedly plotted to build a
radiological '' dirty bomb, '' is a U. S. citizen too. He was arrested at
Chicago's O'Hare airport after a flight from Pakistan, then transferred
from civilian to military custody in Charleston, South Carolina. Like
Hamdi, Padilla is being detained by the military— indefinitely, without
seeing an attorney, even though he hasn't been charged with any crime.
Meanwhile, Zacarias Moussaoui, purportedly the 20th hijacker, is not a
U. S. citizen. Neither is Richard Reid, the alleged shoe bomber. Both have
attorneys. Both have been charged before federal civilian courts.
What gives? Four men: two citizens and two noncitizens. Is it possible
that constitutional rights— like habeas corpus, which requires the govern-ment
to justify continued detentions, and the Sixth Amendment, which
ensures a speedy and public jury trial with assistance of counsel— can be
denied to citizens yet extended to noncitizens? That's what the Bush
administration would have us believe. Citizen Hamdi's treatment is legiti-121
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mate, insists Attorney General John Ashcroft, because Hamdi is an '' enemy
combatant'' and there is '' clear Supreme Court precedent'' to handle those
persons differently, even if they are citizens.
Ashcroft's so-called clear precedent is a 1942 Supreme Court case, Ex
Parte Quirin, which dealt with Nazi saboteurs, at least one of whom was
a U. S. citizen. '' Enemy combatants, '' said the Court, are either lawful—
for example, the regular army of a belligerent country— or unlawful—
for example, terrorists. When lawful combatants are captured, they are
POWs. As POWs, they cannot be tried (except for war crimes); they must
be repatriated after hostilities are over; and they have to provide only their
name, rank, and serial number if interrogated. Clearly, that's not what the
Justice Department had in mind for Hamdi.
Unlawful combatants are different. When unlawful combatants are cap-tured,
they can be tried by a military tribunal. That's what happened to
the Nazi saboteurs in Quirin. But Hamdi has not been charged, much less
tried. Indeed, the president's executive order of November 2001 excludes
U. S. citizens from the purview of military tribunals. If the president were
to modify his order, the Quirin decision might provide legal authority for
the military to try Hamdi. But the decision provides no legal authority
for detaining a citizen without an attorney solely for purposes of aggressive
interrogation.
Moreover, the Constitution does not distinguish between the protections
extended to ordinary citizens on one hand and unlawful-combatant citizens
on the other. Nor does the Constitution distinguish between crimes covered
by the Fifth and Sixth Amendments and terrorist acts. Still, the Quirin
Court justified those distinctions— noting that Congress had formally
declared war and thereby invoked articles of war that expressly authorized
the trial of unlawful combatants by military tribunal. Today, the situation
is different. We've had virtually no input from Congress: no declaration
of war, no authorization of tribunals, and no suspension of habeas corpus.
Yet those functions are explicitly assigned to Congress by Article I of
the Constitution. It is Congress, not the executive branch, which has the
power '' To declare War'' and '' To constitute Tribunals inferior to the
supreme Court. '' Only Congress can suspend the '' Privilege of the Writ
of Habeas Corpus . . . when in Cases of Rebellion or Invasion the public
Safety may require it. '' Congress has not spoken— except by enacting the
PATRIOT Act. And there, we do find authorization for detention of
persons suspected of terrorism— but only noncitizens and only for seven
days, after which they must be released unless criminal charges are filed
or deportation proceedings commenced.
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No charges were filed in Hamdi's case. That's why a federal public
defender sued on his behalf in May 2002, demanding that he be charged
or released. Adistrict court judge in Norfolk ordered the Justice Department
to explain Hamdi's detention and agreed that he had a right to counsel.
Predictably, the Justice Department appealed. In its legal brief to the U. S.
Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, the government insisted, '' There
is no right under the laws and customs of war for an enemy combatant
to meet with counsel concerning his detention. '' Moreover, asserted the
Justice Department, '' The court may not second-guess the military's enemy
combatant determination. Going beyond that determination would . . .
intrude upon the Constitutional prerogative of the Commander in Chief. ''
That astonishing statement amounts to an explicit declaration by the
executive branch that it may unilaterally abrogate habeas corpus, even for
a U. S. citizen. Furthermore, the Justice Department announced that it
would extend its new doctrine to '' enemy combatants . . . captured . . .
on the battlefield in a foreign land; . . . captured overseas and brought to
the United States [or] captured and detained in this country. '' In July
2002 the Fourth Circuit remanded the Hamdi case to the district court to
reconsider '' the implications [including] what effect petitioner's unmoni-tored
access to counsel might have on the government's ongoing gathering
of intelligence. '' The chief judge of the Fourth Circuit, J. Harvie Wilkinson,
ordered the lower court to be deferential when considering the Justice
Department's position. Still, Wilkinson affirmed the need for judicial
review. He warned, '' With no meaningful judicial review, any American
citizen alleged to be an enemy combatant could be detained indefinitely
without charges or counsel. ''
Perhaps that warning will persuade the administration that it may not
set the rules, prosecute infractions, determine guilt or innocence, then
review the results of its own actions— unless of course the administration
has statutory or constitutional authority. Even persons convinced that
President Bush cherishes civil liberties and understands that the Constitu-tion
is not mere scrap paper must be unsettled by the prospect that an
unknown and less honorable successor could exploit some of the dangerous
precedents that the Bush administration is attempting to put in place.
Conclusion
If civil libertarians have a single overriding concern about the PATRIOT
Act and our detention policies, it is this: the Bush administration has
concentrated too much unchecked authority in the hands of the executive
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branch— making a mockery of the doctrine of separation of powers that
has been a cornerstone of our Constitution for two and a quarter centuries.
We cannot, for example, permit the executive branch to declare unilaterally
that a U. S. citizen may be characterized as an enemy combatant, whisked
away, detained indefinitely without charges, denied legal counsel, and
prevented from arguing to a judge that he is wholly innocent.
That does not mean the Justice Department must set people free to
unleash weapons of mass destruction. But it does mean, at a minimum,
that Congress must get involved, exercising its responsibility to enact a
new legal regimen for detainees in time of national emergency. That
regimen must respect our rights under the Constitution, including the right
to judicial review of executive branch decisions. Constitutional rights are
not absolute. But they do establish a strong presumption of liberty, which
can be overridden only if government demonstrates, first, that its restric-tions
are essential and, second, that the goals it seeks to accomplish cannot
be accomplished in a less invasive manner. When the executive, legislative,
and judicial branches agree on the framework, the potential for abuse is
diminished. When only the executive has acted, the foundation of a free
society can too easily erode.
Suggested Readings
Lynch, Timothy. '' Breaking the Vicious Cycle: Preserving Our Liberties While Fighting Terrorism. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 443, June 26, 2002.
Quirin, Ex Parte. 317 U. S. 1 (1942).
Shapiro, Stephen J., et al. '' Inter Arma Silent Leges: In Times of Armed Conflict, Should the Laws Be Silent? '' Association of the Bar of the City of New York, Committee
on Military Affairs and Justice, December 2001. Sonnett, Neal R., et al. '' Preliminary Report: Task Force on Treatment of Enemy
Combatants. '' American Bar Association, August 8, 2002. Taylor, Stuart. '' Jailed with No Key. '' Legal Times, July 22, 2002.
—Prepared by Robert A. Levy
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13. National ID Cards and Military Tribunals
Congress should
resist the establishment of a national identification card and
resist the establishment of military tribunals for civilians.
In the wake of a calamitous terrorist attack, such as the one that America
experienced on September 11, 2001, it is prudent for Congress to review
our laws, policies, and customs with an eye to changes that would enhance
our safety and security. Each policy proposal, however, should be carefully
examined. Congress should not hastily enact any proposal simply because
it is packaged as an '' anti-terrorism'' measure. Every proposal should be
vetted for its necessity, efficacy, and constitutionality.
National ID Cards
It was only a matter of days after the attack of September 11 before
some members of Congress proposed the implementation of a national
ID card system as a way of thwarting additional terrorist attacks. The
national ID card has been proposed in the past as a way of stopping illegal
immigration. Since September 11 the policy proposal has been repackaged
as a '' security'' measure.
The national ID card proposal would be a very bad deal for America
because it would require some 250 million people to surrender some of
their freedom and some of their privacy for something that is not going
to make the country safe from terrorist attack. An ID card with biometric
identifiers may seem '' foolproof, '' but there are several ways that terrorists
will be able to get around such a system. If terrorists are determined to
attack America, they can bribe the employees who issue the cards or the
employees who check the cards. Terrorists could also recruit people who
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possess valid cards— U. S. citizens or lawful permanent residents— to carry
out attacks.
Proponents of the card point to countries in Europe, such as France,
that already have national ID card systems. But the experience of those
countries is nothing to brag about. The people in those countries have
surrendered their privacy and their liberty, yet they continue to experience
terrorist attacks. National ID cards simply do not deliver the security that
is promised.
Moreover, the establishment of a national ID card systemwill dilute civil
liberties. The Fourth Amendment to the Constitution protects Americans
against unreasonable searches and seizures. The quintessential '' seizure''
under the Fourth Amendment is to be arrested or detained by the police.
The police can seize or arrest a person when they have an arrest warrant
or when they have '' probable cause'' to believe that the suspect has just
committed a crime in their presence. But the police cannot stop people
on the street and demand an ID, at least not under current law. The police
can request an ID; they can request that people answer their questions.
But the key point is that Americans get to decide whether or not they
wish to cooperate. The legal presumption right now is on the side of the
individual citizen. The people do not have to justify themselves to the
police. The police have to justify their interference with individual liberty.
A national ID card system will turn that important legal principle upside
down. After the enactment of the system, pressure will begin to build to
enact laws that will require citizens to produce an ID whenever a govern-ment
official demands it. This is very likely to happen for two reasons.
First, in the countries that already have national ID card systems, the
police have acquired such powers. Second, in this country there already
are cases in which the police have arrested Americans for failure to produce
IDs. Thus far, however, courts have thrown out such arrests, ruling that
such a refusal does not constitute '' disorderly conduct'' or '' resisting an
officer. '' And yet, if Congress passes a law that says people must produce
IDs, the courts may well yield on that point.
It is important to note that many of the proponents of the national ID
card— such as Alan Dershowitz of Harvard Law School and Larry Ellison
from Oracle— present the idea in its most innocuous form. The proponents
say the card will be '' voluntary'' and that people will have to present it
only at airports. They say there will be no legal duty to produce an ID
card. But, over time, the amount of information on the card will surely
expand. The number of places where one will have to present an ID card
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will also expand, and it will eventually become compulsory. And, sooner
or later, a legal duty to produce an ID whenever a government official
demands it will be created.
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has already warned us to expect
more terrorist attacks, so it is a safe bet that more anti-terrorism proposals
will emerge in Congress in the wake of such attacks. Perhaps there will
be an attack a year from now, and a limited national ID card will be
proposed and enacted. Maybe five years later, America will be attacked
again; people will die, and law enforcement will go to Congress and say,
'' We have a national ID card, but the problem is that it is voluntary, not
compulsory. '' Thus, by increments, America will get the full-blown
national ID card system that is now in place in other countries. Congress
should avoid this slippery slope by focusing its attention on more meritori-ous
proposals. A national ID card expands the power of government over
law-abiding citizens, but it will not really enhance security.
Military Tribunals
In November 2001, President Bush issued a '' military order'' that said
that suspected terrorists could, on his command, be tried before specially
designated military tribunals instead of civilian courts. That order immedi-ately
came under fire because of its disregard for constitutional norms.
Article III, section 2, of the Constitution provides, '' The Trial of all
Crimes, except in Cases of Impeachment; shall be by Jury. '' The Sixth
Amendment to the Constitution provides, '' In all criminal prosecutions,
the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial
jury. '' To limit the awesome powers of government, the Framers of the
Constitution designed a system in which citizen juries would stand between
the apparatus of the state and the accused. If the government prosecutor
can convince a jury that the accused has committed a crime and belongs
in prison, the accused will lose his liberty and perhaps his life. If the
government cannot convince the jury with its evidence, the prisoner will
go free. In America, an acquittal by a jury is final and unreviewable by
state functionaries.
The federal government did try people before military commissions
during the Civil War. To facilitate that process, President Abraham Lincoln
suspended the writ of habeas corpus— so that the prisoners could not
challenge the legality of their arrest or conviction. The one case that did
reach the Supreme Court, Ex Parte Milligan (1866), deserves careful
attention.
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In Milligan, the attorney general of the United States maintained that
the legal guarantees set forth in the Bill of Rights were '' peace provisions. ''
During wartime, he argued, the federal government can suspend the Bill
of Rights and impose martial law. If the government chooses to exercise
that option, the commanding military officer becomes '' the supreme legis-lator,
supreme judge, and supreme executive. '' Under that legal theory,
many American citizens were arrested, imprisoned, and executed without
the benefit of the legal procedure set forth in the Constitution— trial by jury.
The Supreme Court ultimately rejected the position advanced by the
attorney general. Here is one passage from the Milligan ruling:
The great minds of the country have differed on the correct interpretation
to be given to various provisions of the Federal Constitution; and judicial
decision has been often invoked to settle their true meaning; but until
recently no one ever doubted that the right to trial by jury was fortified in
the organic law against the power of attack. It is now assailed; but if ideas
can be expressed in words and language has any meaning, this right— one
of the most valuable in a free country— is preserved to every one accused
of crime who is not attached to the army, or navy, or militia in actual
service. The sixth amendment affirms that '' in all criminal prosecutions
the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial by an impartial
jury, '' language broad enough to embrace all persons and cases.
The Milligan ruling is sound. While the Constitution empowers the
Congress '' To make Rules for the Government and Regulation of the
land and naval Forces'' and '' To provide for organizing, arming, and
disciplining, the Militia, '' the Supreme Court ruled that the jurisdiction
of the military courts could not extend beyond those people who were
actually serving in the army, navy, and militia. That is an eminently
sensible reading of the constitutional text.
President Bush and his lawyers maintain that terrorists are '' unlawful
combatants'' and that unlawful combatants are not entitled to the protec-tions
of the Bill of Rights. The defect in the president's claim is circularity.
A primary function of the trial process is to sort through conflicting
evidence in order to find the truth. Anyone who assumes that a person
who has merely been accused of being an unlawful combatant is, in fact,
an unlawful combatant can understandably maintain that such a person
is not entitled to the protection of our constitutional safeguards. The flaw,
however, is that that argument begs the very question under consideration.
To take a concrete example, suppose that the president accuses a lawful
permanent resident of the United States of aiding and abetting terrorism.
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The person accused responds by denying the charge and by insisting on
a trial by jury so that he can establish his innocence. The president
responds by saying that '' terrorists are unlawful combatants and unlawful
combatants are not entitled to jury trials. '' The president also says that
the prisoner is not entitled to any access to the civilian court system to
allege any violations of his constitutional rights. With the writ of habeas
corpus suspended, the prisoner and his attorney can only file legal appeals
with the president— the very person who ordered the prisoner's arrest in
the first instance!
The Constitution's jury trial clause is not a '' peace provision'' that can
be suspended during wartime. Reasonable people can disagree about how
to prosecute war criminals who are captured overseas in a theater of war,
but the president cannot make himself the policeman, prosecutor, and judge
of people on U. S. soil. In America, the president's power is '' checked'' by
the judiciary and by citizen juries.
Conclusion
It is very important that policymakers not lose sight of what we are
fighting for in the war on terrorism. The goal should be to fight the
terrorists within the framework of a free society. The federal government
should be taking the battle to the terrorists, to their base camps, and killing
the terrorist leadership; it should not be transforming our free society into
a surveillance state.
Suggested Readings
Crews, Clyde Wayne. '' Human Bar Code: Monitoring Biometric Technologies in a Free Society. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 452, September 17, 2002.
Kopel, David. '' You've Got Identity: Why a National ID Is a Bad Idea. '' National Review Online, February 5, 2002.
Levy, Robert A. '' Don't Shred the Constitution to Fight Terror. '' Wall Street Journal, November 20, 2001.
Lynch, Timothy. '' Breaking the Vicious Cycle: Preserving Our Liberties While Fighting Terrorism. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 443, June 26, 2002.
. '' Executive Branch Arrests and Trials. '' Testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Military Tribunals. December 4, 2001, www. cato. org/ testimony/
ct tl120401. html. Twight, Charlotte. '' Watching You: Systematic Federal Surveillance of Ordinary Ameri-cans.
'' Cato Institute Briefing Paper no. 69, October 17, 2001.
—Prepared by Timothy Lynch
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14. Regulation of Electronic Speech and Commerce
Congress should
resist the urge to regulate offensive content on the Web,
allow the market to address privacy and marketing concerns,
not undercut individuals' efforts to maintain anonymity on
the Internet, not attempt to regulate adult behavior such as online gambling,
reject attempts to impose new restrictions on encryption and
new surveillance on American citizens, avoid replacing true diversity and democracy on the Internet
with politically motivated '' Internet commons'' or '' public spaces, ''
avoid online protectionism by refusing to allow incumbent busi-nesspeople
to undercut electronic trade on the Internet, and avoid imposing burdensome and unconstitutional tax collection
schemes on the Internet.
It seems that everybody's got a plan to tame the freewheeling Internet
these days. The technology and telecommunications sectors of the Ameri-can
economy are increasingly under assault at the local, state, federal, and
international levels. Republicans and Democrats alike are looking for ways
to regulate everything from privacy to porn, while simultaneously seeking
ways to subsidize access. The Progressive Policy Institute describes a
'' failure of cyber-libertarianism'' that leads, naturally enough, to its '' Stra-tegic
National E-Commerce Policy'' framework. Ralph Nader would
establish a World Consumer Protection Organization to counter the
Internet's libertarian streak, which he finds intolerable. Countless other
special interests are clamoring for increased government activism.
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But policymakers must resist intervention. Whether the government
acts as regulator or facilitator of the high-tech economy and the Internet,
there will be unintended consequences. Industry should find self-regulatory
solutions instead of looking to Washington for answers or assistance.
Protecting Kids Online
The Communications Decency Act, passed to ban pornography on the
Internet, was struck down by the Supreme Court in 1997. But Washington
continues efforts to regulate Internet content. In 2002 the Supreme Court
upheld a portion of the Child Online Protection Act, passed by Congress
in 1998 to shield children from online pornography by requiring that
website operators verify the age of visitors. The Court held that free speech
is not necessarily violated by the imposition of community standards on
a national scale.
Although the Supreme Court does not reject the notion of '' contempo-rary
community standards, '' the lower court got it right when it noted
that the community standard notion lets the most squeamish dictate what
all others can see on the Web. In the name of protecting children, the law
interferes with content that adults should have the right to see under the
First Amendment.
On an Internet that is increasingly capable of direct peer-to-peer com-munication
and broadcast, individual choices and behavior replace
'' community standards. '' And laws like COPA can have unintended conse-quences:
barriers to those who seek porn voluntarily will likely increase
e-mail solicitations for porn (spam), which COPA wouldn't regulate.
The best and least restrictive defense is parental supervision, and helpful
tools, including filtering software and filtered online services, are available
in the private sector. Filtered online services can limit the receipt of
unwanted salacious e-mail, for which COPA is no use. Another tool at
parents' disposal is tracking software that lets them monitor everything a
child does or has done on the Internet.
Online Marketing and Privacy
Websites, as is well known, frequently collect information about visitors
and often sell it. Some legislators want to require online and even main
street firms to reveal what information they collect and share, and to allow
customers to '' opt out. '' Others would require a much more restrictive
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opt-in standard for '' sensitive'' consumer information; under that standard
no information could be used until a consumer granted permission.
But is all the fuss over information-age marketing justified? Free-flowing
information means more and cheaper stuff. Certainly, business use of
personal information to move merchandise may sometimes be irritating,
but federal regulation, which will hurt e-commerce and consumers, isn't
the answer. Small businesses will suffer more than larger companies that
have already assembled databases.
As businesses respond to consumer preferences, more stringent privacy
protections are emerging. The notice and choice sought in privacy legisla-tion
already exist. Most highly trafficked sites already feature privacy
policies. Users can set their Web browsers to reject information gathering.
Software tools that provide for anonymous surfing or warn when informa-tion
is being collected further empower consumers. The marketplace
increasingly forces sites to develop online privacy policies as ever-more-efficient
browser technology alerts users to the level of security provided.
Moreover, Washington itself can be the leading privacy offender. Sep-tember
11, 2001, brought renewed government surveillance, authorized
by the PATRIOT Act, that raises serious constitutional issues and should
be the focus of any serious congressional privacy debate. We don't get
to '' opt out'' of government information collection. Washington does not
have a track record that inspires confidence in it as a protector of personal
information.
Unsolicited E-Mail (spam) Policy
One legitimate purpose of limited government is to stop the use of force
and fraud. That extends to fraudulent e-mail solicitations, the prosecution of
which is the job of the Federal Trade Commission.
Peddling fraudulent merchandise or impersonating somebody else in
the e-mail's header information should be punished, as should breaking
a contract made with an Internet service provider (ISP) that prohibits bulk
mailing. But in the debate over the outpouring of spam, it's important to
avoid unintentionally stifling beneficial e-commerce. Sometimes, commer-cial
e-mail, even if unsolicited, may be welcome if the sender is a business
selling legal and legitimate products in a nonabusive manner.
Increasingly, legitimate companies are embracing permission-based,
'' opt-in'' e-mail standards, which enable people to receive e-mail only
from senders they have chosen. If legislation merely sends the most
egregious offenders offshore, that may simply create legal and regulatory
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hassles for small businesses trying to make a go of legitimate e-commerce
or for mainstream companies that are not spammers. Unwise legislation
could also create headaches for noncommercial e-mailers.
A smarter approach is e-mail filtering, such as setting the owner's screen
to receive only from recognized and approved e-mail addresses. That
standard is particularly appropriate for children's e-mail accounts. Emerg-ing
'' handshake'' or '' challenge and response'' systems capable of totally
blocking spam show promise: since the most offensive spam is sent by
automatic bulk mailing programs that aren't capable of receiving a reply,
spam no longer appears in the inbox. Identifiers or '' seals'' for trusted
commercial e-mail could be another means of helping ISPs block unwanted
e-mail.
As the market works to shift costs of commercial e-mail back to the
sender, we must be on guard against legislative confusion: How might the
definition of '' spam'' expand beyond '' unsolicited'' and '' commercial'' e-mail,
and would such expansion be a good thing? What about unsolicited
political or nonprofit bulk e-mailings, or press releases, resume blasts, and
charitable solicitations? What about newsletters that contain embedded
ads or link back to for-profit websites? Would pop-up ads become suspect
in the aftermath of spam legislation? They're not e-mail, but they are
unsolicited and commercial.
Another piece of proposed legislation would grant ISPs the power to
decide what is spam and to unilaterally block it with '' good faith'' immu-nity
and sue the spammer. It is appropriate for consumers and ISPs to
effect complete blackouts of spammers if they like; computers, wires,
servers, and routers are private property. But it's not necessary to federalize
such contracts.
Finally, legislative bans on false e-mail return addresses, as well as
bans on software capable of hiding such information, have worrisome
implications for free speech and anonymity for individuals— not just mis-behaving
businesses. Individuals can use '' spamware'' to create contempo-rary
versions of the anonymous flyers that have played such an important
role in our history. Individuals must retain the ability to safeguard their
anonymity even in (or perhaps especially in) a mass communications tool
like e-mail. In an era in which so many people are concerned about online
privacy, legislation that impedes a technology that can protect privacy
would be strange indeed.
Given the perfectly understandable desire to stop unsolicited mail, it is all
too easy for Congress to undermine legitimate commerce, communications,
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and free speech. And crippling Internet commerce would be especially
pointless if spam continued pouring in from overseas.
The Internet and Anonymity
Anonymous speech is as old as America. Gentlemen calling themselves
'' Publius'' wrote the Federalist Papers. Thomas Paine's Common Sense
was signed by '' An Englishman. '' Today, e-mail encryption is an important
example of the tradition of speaking freely and anonymously.
But encryption technology in the hands of people bent on destruction
can be deadly. Some observers believe that the terrorists who attacked
America communicated via encrypted messages. Fear of this indisputable
threat led to renewed proposals to give government a '' back door key''
to encryption products. Similarly, calls for a national ID card exemplify
new urges to shine a federal light on individuals. But calls for prohibitions
on encryption products are a nonstarter in the sense that trying to prohibit
bad actors from acquiring hardware or software is futile in today's global,
integrated marketplace.
Government's job is to restrict the liberty of dangerous criminals and
enemies— not that of innocent citizens, or to treat everyone as a suspect.
The USA PATRIOT Act has set up a new law enforcement infrastructure
that can easily increase surveillance of nonterrorists, but that is clearly
beyond the stated intent of combating terrorism. New powers should apply
only to terrorism, not to routine criminal investigations. While surveillance
can and likely will be enhanced to respond to the new realities of instant
electronic communications, the Fourth Amendment's protections against
unreasonable and warrantless searches must not suffer.
Proposals to reregulate encryption are the digital equivalent of seizing
grandma's nail clippers at the airport; terrorists would simply resort to
illegal encryption. Congress decided in the mid-1990s that the benefits of
readily available access to encryption technology are significant. Like
proposals to mandate that everyone carry a national ID card, reregulation
of encryption is a needless undermining of anonymity and privacy.
It's important to remember that the root of the terrorist threat America
faces does not lie entirely in cyberspace, so fighting encryption is a
misplaced priority. Despite the intense Internet privacy debate of recent
years, the real dispute isn't about whether such privacy is achievable; it's
about whether government will allow it where the capability finally exists.
Encryption is essential, not just for keeping intact a pure version of
the principle of free speech, but for such '' mundane'' needs as private
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communication, secure online commerce, and business-to-business
exchanges. Restrictions would damage the security of America's financial
systems, making it easier for the everyday hacker, not to mention the
terrorist, to invade personal information and tinker with the financial
infrastructure. One of the imperatives in combating terrorism is to secure
sensitive and critical systems from attack. Since encryption is essential
for self-protection of companies and individuals, misguided legislation
undermining it hampers sensible, private security measures.
The encryption genie is out of the bottle. Not only can malevolent
programmers create their own strings of ones and zeros capable of
encrypting communications, so can legitimate companies overseas. And
requiring the deposit of an encryption '' key'' at a central governmental
location creates a '' honey pot'' for hackers to attack, reducing our security.
Encryption legislation to deliberately reduce our privacy would have been
unthinkable only recently, given widespread concerns about privacy. As
Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) has pointed out, we need more encryption, not
less. New encryption techniques are critical to the protection of intellectual
property, such as digital distribution of books, movies, and music, on
which a rising share of America's wealth creation depends.
Moreover, encryption plays a key role in the struggle for human liberty
itself. It has aided political dissidents shielding themselves from brutal
governments, helping democracy and individual liberty flourish overseas.
Regulating encryption could encumber us far more than the terrorists, who
can still encrypt as well as use other means of communication. Legal
encryption may not be essential for terror, but it is essential for our
advanced economy.
Internet Gambling
Some members of Congress want to stop online gambling by banning
the acceptance of credit cards or other instruments for processing gambling
transactions. It's understandable that politicians would be concerned about
gambling operations being used as tools for terrorist money laundering.
But in this privacy-sensitive era, the question arises: if you were gam-bling
on the Internet, how would the government ever know about it? For
the government to know about such personal, consensual behavior requires
spying. But to impose federal surveillance of consumer financial transac-tions
before consumers have even widely embraced Internet banking and
commerce has serious implications for people's willingness to welcome
online finance.
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Banks and ISPs would be drafted as snoops to sift all financial transac-tions.
Not surprisingly, credit card companies don't want to be held respon-sible
for ensuring that companies for which they process card services
are not involved in gambling operations.
Other rationales for gambling restrictions are to target shady dealers
who run phony, fraudulent operations and to protect people from addiction
to gambling. That is paternalism: Consumers should screen any gambling
operations with which they transact and avoid fly-by-night operators. And
gambling adults are responsible for their own behavior.
What constitutes '' gambling'' is often in the eye of the legislator.
Fantasy sports get a limited exemption in proposed legislation, as do
horseracing and jai alai. And investing in certain technical financial instru-ments
can be a '' gamble'' in the sense that '' the opportunity to win
is predominantly subject to chance''— as proposed legislation defines
gambling. Yet the anti-gambling proposals exempt '' any over-the-counter
derivative instrument, '' though these clearly are not for the squeamish.
Once we travel down the road of regulating behavior on the Internet,
there's basically no limit to government's ability to regulate voluntary
speech and interaction and to substitute its moral vision for that of
individuals.
Protecting an Internet '' Commons''
Some scholars and organizations are clamoring for creation of '' public
spaces'' on the Internet. For example, University of Chicago law professor
Cass Sunstein worries that the individual's habit of personalizing or filter-ing
his Web experiences thwarts the '' unanticipated encounters'' and
'' common experiences'' that should unite us as a democracy. Where the
private sector doesn't come through, he wants the government to '' pick
up the slack, '' requiring sites to disclose their biases and link to opposing
views. And he wants popular sites to act as a '' public sidewalk, '' providing
links '' designed to ensure more exposure to substantive questions. '' Pre-sumably
the government would decide if a site is guilty of '' failure to
attend to public issues. '' According to this view, free speech doesn't mean
saying what you want but providing a platform for other views.
Acting on similar beliefs, former leaders of the Public Broadcasting
System and the Federal Communications Commission set up the Digital
Promise project to '' halt the encroachment of purely market values'' on
the Internet. They propose the establishment of a Digital Opportunity
Investment Trust fund program, or '' DO IT, '' to fund '' the development
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of online courses, training materials, archives, software, civic information,
quality arts and cultural programs, and other digital resources and services
of the highest standards to meet the needs of all citizens and help them
gain access to the best minds and talents in our society. ''
DO IT might best be thought of as a sort of ministry of cyber culture,
the fusion of the National Endowment for the Arts, PBS, and the '' E-Rate''
program (or Gore tax). The $18 billion program would be funded
by revenues from wireless spectrum auctions. Legislation has already been
introduced to make DO IT a reality.
Despite those worries, a torrent of '' shared experiences'' bombards us
despite personalization and filtering. As one critic put it, given Sunstein's
view, '' these sort[ s] of chance encounters should be happening to me less
and less on the Internet. Instead, they seem to be happening more and
more. '' Sources of exposure have ranged from the early bulletin boards
of the 1980s to the peer-to-peer networks of today. And in between
they encompass Web pages, search engines, chat rooms, e-mail, auctions,
Internet phones, instant messaging, and more.
The Internet is already a public space, in the proper sense of the term.
The public shouldn't be compelled to subsidize content deemed appropriate
for cyber citizenship. Nothing in government's legitimate scope qualifies
it as a fountain of superior, purer information or a source of social cohesion.
Governments are well-known for censorship and control, such as the
mandating of library filters and ratings for movies, music, and videogames.
Most fundamentally, the public spaces premise fails because it rests
on the notion that capitalism and freedom are inimical to, rather than
prerequisites for, civil society and the diffusion of ideas. We cherish a
free press, dissent, and debate because governments can threaten those
values. We need markets to maximize output, including that of true and
useful '' public'' information.
In practice, a public spaces regime would simply deteriorate into con-gressional
mandates and funding of '' approved'' sites. But funding is the
role of venture capitalists, who have learned that not every Internet venture
makes sense. Government programs would be failure proof in the sense
that politics rather than competition for eyeballs would matter. Whereas
the unalloyed Internet constitutes a real free press, a potpourri of informa-tion
people seek (or that the unpopular post on their own dime), public
spaces will consist of '' worthy'' things people are forced to pay for or
link to.
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Online Free Speech and the Rising Threat of Global Internet Regulation
As countries across the globe become more aware of the power of the
Internet as a communications medium and channel for global commerce,
they grow more interested in regulating what takes place online.
The most prominent example of such international regulatory mischief
so far has been the efforts by the French courts to force the American-based
Web portal company Yahoo! to remove, or at least block from the
view of French citizens, those portions of its website where Nazi memora-bilia
are for sale. Although a lower district court in California held in
November 2001 that the French ruling could not be extraterritorially
enforced here in America, the Paris Criminal Court held in February
2002 that the case could go forward. Many other countries also have
extraterritorial speech regulations. If such parochial speech controls were
enforceable across the globe, it would obviously force content providers
and network operators to restrict their speech so as to avoid potential
liability or penalties.
But can parochial standards really be applied to the Web? Or is the
Web truly a borderless medium that cannot be regulated in any workable
sense by local authorities? Many important legal issues are at play, espe-cially
when you expand the discussion beyond free speech to include
commercial regulation of the Internet. Some scholars have suggested that
international treaties could be the answer. Others are calling for a '' UN
for the Internet, '' or some sort of global regulatory body to resolve such
questions. Still others suggest that the best answer is to do nothing, since
anarchy, at least so far, has the advantage of broadening the range of free
speech globally.
Although Americans have good reason to ignore the French ruling in
the Yahoo! case, the question remains: how will these disputes be decided
in the future? As Net connectivity across the globe grows, and human
communication and interaction bridge the geographic divides between
countries and continents, governments will attempt to force this new
technology into old regulatory paradigms. Defenders of free speech would
be wise to start thinking about ways to convince them to do otherwise.
State and Local Restraints of Electronic Trade
New York Times reporter John Markoff noted in a December 2000
column, '' In a remarkably short period, the World Wide Web has touched
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or has promised to alter— some would say threaten— virtually every aspect
of modern life. '' Of course, not everyone has enthusiastically embraced
the changes the Internet has brought, especially those who feel threatened
by it.
This is particularly true in the business marketplace where many well-established
industries and older institutions fear that the Net is displacing
their businesses or perhaps entire industry sectors by bringing consumers
and producers closer together.
That older industries fear newer ones is nothing new, of course. Any
new and disruptive technology will attract its fair share of skeptics and
opponents. Steamboat operators feared the railroads; railroaders feared
truckers; truckers feared air shippers; and undoubtedly horse and buggy
drivers feared the first automobiles that crossed their path.
Fear of technological change is to be expected; the problem is that
older industries often have significantly more clout in the political market-place
and can convince policymakers to act on their behalf. State licensing
or franchising laws are often the favored club for entrenched industries
that are looking for a way to beat back their new competitors. Demanding
that producers comply with a crazy-quilt of state and local regulations
will often be enough to foreclose new market entry altogether.
That is simply old-fashioned industrial protectionism. But requiring
national or even global commercial vendors— as is clearly the case with
e-commerce and Internet sellers— to comply with parochial laws and
regulations is antithetical to the interests of consumers and the economy
in general. Consumers clearly benefit from the development of online
commercial websites and value the flexibility such sites give them to do
business directly with producers and distributors. More important, the
development of a vibrant online commercial sector provides important
benefits for the economy as a whole in terms of increased productivity.
The Progressive Policy Institute has estimated that protectionist laws and
regulations could cost consumers more than $15 billion in the aggregate.
Lawmakers must be flexible in crafting public policies so as to not
upset the vibrant, dynamic nature of this marketplace and be willing to
change existing structures, laws, or political norms to accommodate or
foster the expansion of new technologies and industry sectors. The fact
that some Old Economy, Manufacturing Age interests may not like the
emergence of the NewEconomy, Information Age sectors and technologies
does not mean policymakers should seek to accommodate older interests
by stifling the development of the cyber sector. Such a Luddite solution
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will hurt consumers and further set back the development of the online
marketplace. Congress must exercise its powers under the Commerce
Clause of the Constitution to protect interstate electronic commerce when
it is seriously threatened by state and local meddling.
Internet Taxation
A remarkably contentious battle has taken place in recent years over
the Internet Tax Freedom Act of 1998 and the federally imposed morato-rium
on state and local taxation of the Internet. The ITFA moratorium
does not prohibit states or localities from attempting to collect sales or
use taxes on goods purchased over the Internet; it merely prohibits state and
local government from imposing '' multiple or discriminatory'' taxation of
the Internet or special taxes on Internet access.
What pro-tax state and local officials are really at war with is not the
ITFA but 30 years of Supreme Court jurisprudence that has not come
down in their favor. The Court has ruled that states can require only firms
with a physical presence, or '' nexus, '' in their states to collect taxes on
their behalf.
The effort to tax the Internet is a classic case of misplaced blame. In
their zeal to find a way to collect taxes on electronic transactions to
supposedly '' level the (sales tax) playing field, '' most state and local
officials conveniently ignore the fact that the current sales tax system is
perhaps the most unlevel playing field anyone could possibly have
designed. Several politically favored industries and politically sensitive
products receive generous exemptions from sales tax collection obligations
or even from the taxes themselves.
Sales tax collection was fairly effective in the post– World War II period
when a sizable portion of the American economy was still goods based
and subject to the tax.
But as America began a gradual shift to a service-based economy in
subsequent decades, serious strains were placed on the sales tax system
since sales taxes had traditionally not been collected on services. Therefore,
the vast majority of '' service-sector'' industries and professions receive
a blanket exemption from sales tax obligations.
So, as the service sector became a larger portion of the American
economy, the overall sales tax base shrank accordingly. Limited efforts
have been made by some states to expand sales tax coverage to include
services, but those efforts have met with staunch corporate and consumer
opposition. Regardless, the combined effect of the service-sector exemp-141
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tions and exemptions for '' special'' goods-producing industries, such as
agriculture and clothing, has been the gradual diminution of the sales tax
base in America.
In fact, in a December 2000 study in the National Tax Journal, econo-mists
Donald Bruce and William F. Fox of the University of Tennessee
Center for Business and Economic Research estimated that the sales tax
base as a percentage of personal income has fallen from roughly 52 percent
in the late 1970s to less than 42 percent today. Worse yet, evidence
suggests that, as the sales tax base has been gradually eroding in recent
decades, average sales tax rates have been going up. In other words, we
now have a rising average tax rate over a shrinking tax base. That is the
textbook definition of an inefficient tax. Optimally, economists want a
low tax rate over a very broad tax base.
Citizens should be cognizant of the deficiencies of the current system
and not allow state and local policymakers to trick them into thinking that
the Internet is to blame for the holes in their sales tax bases. Electronic
commerce sales constituted a surprisingly low 1. 1 percent of aggregate
retail sales in 2001 according to U. S. Department of Commerce data. In
light of this, it's hard to see how the Internet is to blame for the declining
sales tax base.
Before state or local officials beg Congress to save them from the
massive sales tax drain brought on by the Internet, they need to clean up
the mess they've created. And if they really want to find a way to '' level
the playing field'' and tax Internet transactions, an origin-based sales tax
system would allow them to do so in an economically efficient and
constitutionally sensible way. In the meantime, however, Congress would
be wise to permanently extend the existing ITFA moratorium on multiple
and discriminatory taxes, as well as Internet access taxes, and let Supreme
Court precedents continue to govern the interstate marketplace for elec-tronic
commerce transactions.
Suggested Readings
Bell, Tom W. '' Internet Gambling: Popular, Inexorable, and (Eventually) Legal. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 336, March 8, 1999, www. cato. org/ pubs/ pas/
pa-336es. html.
. '' Internet Privacy and Self-Regulation: Lessons from the Porn Wars. '' Cato Institute Briefing Paper no. 65, August 9, 2001, www. cato. org/ pubs/ briefs/
bp-065es. html.
Corn-Revere, Robert. '' Caught in the Seamless Web: Does the Internet's Global Reach Justify Less Freedom of Speech? '' Cato Institute Briefing Paper no. 71, July 24,
2002, www. cato. org/ pubs/ briefs/ bp-071es. html.
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Crews, Clyde Wayne Jr. '' Why Canning 'Spam' Is a Bad Idea. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 408, July 26, 2001, www. cato. org/ pubs/ pas/ pa-408es. html.
Lukas, Aaron. '' Tax Bytes: A Primer on the Taxation of Electronic Commerce. '' Cato Institute Trade Policy Analysis no. 9, www. freetrade. org/ pubs/ pas/ tpa-009es. html.
Singleton, Solveig. '' Privacy as Censorship: A Skeptical View of Proposals to Regulate Privacy in the Private Sector. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 295, January 22,
1998, www. cato. org/ pubs/ pas/ pa-295. html. . '' Will the Net Turn Car Dealers into Dinosaurs? State Limits on Auto Sales
Online. '' Cato Institute Briefing Paper no. 58, July 25, 2000, www. cato. org/ pubs/ briefs/ bp-058es. html.
Wallace, Jonathan D. '' Nameless in Cyberspace: Anonymity on the Internet. '' Cato Institute Briefing Paper no. 54, December 8, 1999, www. cato. org/ pubs/ briefs/
bp-054es. html.
—Prepared by Clyde Wayne Crews Jr. and Adam Thierer
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15. Property Rights and Regulatory Takings
Congress should
enact legislation that specifies the constitutional rights of prop-erty
owners under the Fifth Amendment's Just Compensation Clause;
follow the traditional common law in defining '' private prop-erty,
'' '' public use, '' and '' just compensation''; treat property taken through regulation the same as property
taken through physical seizure; and provide a single forum in which property owners may seek
injunctive relief and just compensation promptly.
America's Founders understood clearly that private property is the
foundation not only of prosperity but of freedom itself. Thus, through the
common law and the Constitution, they protected property rights— the
rights of people to freely acquire and use property. With the growth of
the modern regulatory state, however, governments at all levels today are
eliminating those rights through so-called regulatory takings— regulatory
restraints that take property rights, reducing the value of the property, but
leave title with the owner. And courts are doing little to protect such
owners because the Supreme Court has yet to develop a principled, much
less comprehensive, theory of property rights. That failure has led to the
birth of the property rights movement in state after state. It is time now
for Congress to step in— to correct its own violations and to give guidance
to the courts as they adjudicate complaints about state violations.
When government condemns property outright, taking title from the
owner, courts require it to compensate the owner for his losses under the
Fifth Amendment's Takings or Just Compensation Clause: '' nor shall
private property be taken for public use without just compensation. '' The
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modern problem is not there— provided the compensation is just— but
with regulatory takings that provide goods for the public at the expense
of owners, who are often left with worthless titles. Courts have been
reluctant to award compensation in such cases because they have failed
to grasp the principles of the matter— due in part to an unwarranted
deference to the regulatory state. As a result, owners sometimes lose their
entire investment in their property, and they can do nothing about it.
Meanwhile, governments are only encouraged to further regulation since
the goods that are thus provided are cost free to the public.
Over the past decade, however, the Supreme Court has chipped away
at the problem and begun to require compensation in some cases— even
if its decisions are largely ad hoc, leaving most owners to bear the losses
themselves. Thus, owners today can get compensation when title is actually
taken, as just noted; when their property is physically invaded by govern-ment
order, either permanently or temporarily; when regulation for other
than health or safety reasons takes all or nearly all of the value of the
property; and when government attaches conditions that are unreasonable
or disproportionate when it grants a permit to use property. Even if that
final category of takings were clear, however, those categories would not
constitute anything like a comprehensive theory of the matter, much less
a comprehensive solution to the problem. For that, Congress (or the Court)
is going to have to turn to first principles, much as the old common law
judges did. The place to begin, then, is not with the public law of the
Constitution but with the private law of property.
Property: The Foundation of All Rights
It is no accident that a nation conceived in liberty and dedicated to
justice for all protects property rights. Property is the foundation of every
right we have, including the right to be free. Every legal claim, after all,
is a claim to something— either a defensive claim to keep what one is
holding or an offensive claim to something someone else is holding.
John Locke, the philosophical father of the American Revolution and
the inspiration for Thomas Jefferson when he drafted the Declaration of
Independence, stated the issue simply: '' Lives, Liberties, and Estates,
which I call by the general Name, Property. '' And James Madison, the
principal author of the Constitution, echoed those thoughts when he wrote
that '' as a man is said to have a right to his property, he may be equally
said to have a property in his rights. ''
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Much moral confusion would be avoided if we understood that all of
our rights— all of the things to which we are '' entitled''— can be reduced
to property. That would enable us to separate genuine rights— things to
which we hold title— from specious '' rights''— things to which other
people hold title, which we may want. It was the genius of the old common
law, grounded in reason, that it grasped that point. And the common law
judges understood a pair of corollaries as well: that property, broadly
conceived, separates one individual from another and that individuals are
independent or free to the extent that they have sole or exclusive dominion
over what they hold. Indeed, Americans go to work every day to acquire
property just so they can be independent.
Legal Protection for Property Rights
It would be to no avail, however, if property, once acquired, could not
be used and enjoyed— if rights of acquisition, enjoyment, and disposal
were not legally protected. Recognizing that, common law judges, charged
over the years with settling disputes between neighbors, have drawn upon
principles of reason and efficiency, and upon custom as well, to craft a
law of property that respects, by and large, the equal rights of all.
In a nutshell, the basic rights they have recognized, after the rights of
acquisition and disposal, are the right of sole dominion— or the right to
exclude others, the right against trespass; the right of quiet enjoyment—
a right everyone can exercise equally, at the same time and in the same
respect; and the right of active use— at least to the point where such use
violates the rights of others to quiet enjoyment. Just where that point is,
of course, is often fact dependent— and is the business of courts to decide.
But the point to notice, in the modern context, is that the presumption of
the common law is on the side of free use. At common law, that is, people
are not required to obtain a permit before they can use their property—
no more than people today are required to obtain a permit before they
can speak freely. Rather, the burden is upon those who object to a given
use to show how it violates their right of quiet enjoyment. That amounts
to having to show that their neighbor's use takes something they own
free and clear. If they fail, the use may continue.
Thus, the common law limits the right of free use only when a use
encroaches on the property rights of others, as in the classic lawof nuisance.
The implications of that limit, however, should not go unnoticed, especially
in the context of such modern concerns as environmental protection.
Indeed, it is so far from the case that property rights are opposed to
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environmental protection— a common belief today— as to be just the
opposite: the right against environmental degradation is a property right.
Under common law, properly applied, people cannot use their property
in ways that damage their neighbors' property— defined, again, as taking
things those neighbors hold free and clear. Properly conceived and applied,
then, property rights are self-limiting: they constitute a judicially crafted
and enforced regulatory scheme in which rights of active use end when
they encroach on the property rights of others.
The Police Power and the Power of Eminent Domain
But if the common law of property defines and protects private rights—
the rights of owners with respect to each other— it also serves as a guide
for the proper scope and limits of public law— defining the rights of
owners and the public with respect to each other. For public law, at least
at the federal level, flows from the Constitution; and the Constitution
flows from the principles articulated in the Declaration— which reflect,
largely, the common law. The justification of public law begins, then,
with our rights, as the Declaration makes clear. Government then follows,
not to give us rights through positive law, but to recognize and secure
the rights we already have. Thus, to be legitimate, government's powers
must be derived from and consistent with those rights.
The two public powers that are at issue in the property rights debate
are the police power— the power of government to secure rights— and
the power of eminent domain— the power to take property for public use
upon payment of just compensation, as set forth, by implication, in the
Fifth Amendment.
The police power— the first great power of government— is derived
from what Locke called the Executive Power, the power each of us has
in the state of nature to secure his rights. Thus, as such, it is legitimate,
since it is nothing more than a power we already have, by right, which
we gave to government, when we constituted ourselves as a nation, to
exercise on our behalf. Its exercise is legitimate, however, only insofar
as it is used to secure rights, and only insofar as its use respects the rights
of others. Thus, while our rights give rise to the police power, they also
limit it. We cannot use the police power for non-police-power purposes.
It is a power to secure rights, through restraints or sanctions, not some
general power to provide public goods.
A complication arises with respect to the federal government, however,
for it is not a government of general powers. Thus, there is no general
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federal police power, despite modern developments to the contrary (which
essentially ignore the principle). Rather, the Constitution establishes a
government of delegated, enumerated, and thus limited powers, leaving
most powers, including the police power, with the states or the people,
as the Tenth Amendment makes clear. (See Chapter 3 of this Handbook
for greater detail on this point.) If we are to abide by constitutional
principle, then, we have to recognize that whatever power the federal
government has to secure rights is limited to federal territory, by implica-tion,
or is incidental to the exercise of one of the federal government's
enumerated powers.
But if the police power is thus limited to securing rights, and the federal
government's police power is far more restricted, then any effort to provide
public goods must be accomplished under some other power— under some
enumerated power, in the case of the federal government. Yet any such
effort will be constrained by the Just Compensation Clause, which requires
that any provision of public goods that entails taking private property—
whether in whole or in part is irrelevant— must be accompanied by just
compensation for the owner of the property. Otherwise the costs of the
benefit to the public would fall entirely on the owner. Not to put too fine
a point on it, that would amount to plain theft. Indeed, it was to prohibit
that kind of thing that the Founders wrote the Just Compensation Clause
in the first place.
Thus, the power of eminent domain— which is not enumerated in
the Constitution but is implicit in the Just Compensation Clause— is an
instrumental power: it is a means through which government, acting under
some other power, pursues other ends— building roads, for example, or
saving wildlife. Moreover, unlike the police power, the eminent domain
power is not inherently legitimate: indeed, in a state of nature, none of
us would have a right to condemn a neighbor's property, however worthy
our purpose, however much we compensated him. Thus, it is not for
nothing that eminent domain was known in the 17th and 18th centuries
as '' the despotic power. '' It exists from practical considerations alone—
to enable public projects to go forward without being held hostage to lone
holdouts in a position to extract monopoly charges. As for its justification,
the best that can be said for eminent domain is this: the power was ratified
by those who were in the original position; and it is '' Pareto superior, ''
as economists say, meaning that at least one party (the public) is made
better off by its use while no one is made worse off— provided the owner
does indeed receive just compensation.
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When Is Compensation Required?
We come then to the basic question: When does government have to
compensate owners for the losses they suffer when regulations reduce the
value of their property? The answers are as follows.
First, when government acts to secure rights— when it stops someone
from polluting on his neighbor or on the public, for example— it is acting
under its police power and no compensation is due the owner, whatever
his financial losses, because the use prohibited or '' taken'' was wrong to
begin with. Since there is no right to pollute, we do not have to pay
polluters not to pollute. Thus, the question is not whether value was taken
by a regulation but whether a right was taken. Proper uses of the police
power take no rights. To the contrary, they protect rights.
Second, when government acts not to secure rights but to provide the
public with some good— wildlife habitat, for example, or a viewshed or
historic preservation— and in doing so prohibits or '' takes'' some otherwise
legitimate use, then it is acting, in part, under the eminent domain power
and it does have to compensate the owner for any financial losses he may
suffer. The principle here is quite simple: the public has to pay for the
goods it wants, just like any private person would have to. Bad enough
that the public can take what it wants by condemnation; at least it should
pay rather than ask the owner to bear the full cost of its appetite. It is
here, of course, that modern regulatory takings abuses are most common
as governments at all levels try to provide the public with all manner of
amenities, especially environmental amenities, '' off budget. '' As noted
above, there is an old-fashioned word for that practice: it is '' theft, '' and
no amount of rationalization about '' good reasons'' will change that. Even
thieves, after all, have '' good reasons'' for what they do.
Finally, when government acts to provide the public with some good
and that act results in financial loss to an owner but takes no right of the
owner, no compensation is due because nothing the owner holds free and
clear is taken. If the government closes a military base, for example, and
neighboring property values decline as a result, no compensation is due
those owners because the government's action took nothing they owned.
They own their property and all the uses that go with it that are consistent
with their neighbors' equal rights. They do not own the value in their
property.
Some Implications of a Principled Approach
Starting from first principles, then, we can derive principled answers
to the regulatory takings question. And we can see, in the process, that
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there is no difference in principle between an '' ordinary'' taking and a
regulatory taking, between taking full title and taking partial title— a
distinction that critics of property rights repeatedly urge, claiming that the
Just Compensation Clause requires compensation only for '' full'' takings.
If we take the text seriously, as we should, the clause speaks simply of
'' private property. '' As the quote above from Madison suggests, '' prop-erty''
denotes not just some '' underlying estate'' but all the estates— all
the uses— that can rightly be made of a holding. In fact, in every area of
property law except takings we recognize that property is a '' bundle of
sticks, '' any one of which can be bought, sold, rented, bequeathed, what
have you. Yet takings law has clung to the idea that only if the entire
bundle is taken does government have to pay compensation.
That view enables government to extinguish nearly all uses through
regulation— and hence to regulate nearly all value out of property— yet
escape the compensation requirement because the all but empty title
remains with the owner. And it would allow a government to take 90
percent of the value in year one, then come back a year later and take
title for a dime on the dollar. Not only is that wrong, it is unconstitutional.
It cannot be what the Just Compensation Clause stands for. The principle,
rather, is that property is indeed a bundle of sticks: take one of those
sticks and you take something that belongs to the owner. The only question
then is how much his loss is worth.
Thus, when the Court a few years ago crafted what is in effect a
100 percent rule, whereby owners are entitled to compensation only if
regulations restrict uses to a point where all value is lost, it went about
the matter backwards. It measured the loss to determine whether there
was a taking. As a matter of first principle, the Court should first have
determined whether there was a taking, then measured the loss. It should
first have asked whether otherwise legitimate uses were prohibited by the
regulation. That addresses the principle of the matter. It then remains
simply to measure the loss in value and hence the compensation that is
due. The place to start, in short, is with the first stick, not the last dollar.
The principled approach requires, of course, that the Court have a basic
understanding of the theory of the matter and a basic grasp of how to
resolve conflicting claims about use in a way that respects the equal rights
of all. That is hardly a daunting task, as the old common law judges
demonstrated. In general, the presumption is on the side of active use, as
noted earlier, until some plaintiff demonstrates that such use takes the
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quiet enjoyment that is his by right— and the defendant's right as well.
At that point the burden shifts to the defendant to justify his use: absent
some defense like the prior consent of the plaintiff, the defendant may
have to cease his use— or, if his activity is worth it, offer to buy an
easement or buy out the plaintiff. Thus, a principled approach respects
equal rights of quiet enjoyment— and hence environmental integrity. But
it also enables active uses to go forward— though not at the expense of
private or public rights. Users can be as active as they wish, provided
they handle the '' externalities'' they create in a way that respects the
rights of others.
What Congress Should Do
The application of such principles is often fact dependent, as noted
earlier, and so is best done by courts. But until the courts develop a more
principled and systematic approach to takings, it will fall to Congress to
draw at least the broad outlines of the matter, both as a guide for the
courts and as a start toward getting its own house in order.
In this last connection, however, the first thing Congress should do is
recognize candidly that the problem of regulatory takings begins with
regulation. Doubtless the Founders did not think to specify that regulatory
takings are takings too, and thus are subject to the Just Compensation
Clause, because they did not imagine the modern regulatory state: they
did not envision our obsession with regulating every conceivable human
activity and our insistence that such activity— residential, business, what
have you— take place only after a grant of official permission. In some
areas of business today we have almost reached the point at which it can
truly be said that everything that is not permitted is prohibited. That is
the opposite, of course, of our founding principle: everything that is not
prohibited is permitted— where '' permitted, '' means '' freely allowed, ''
not allowed '' by permit. ''
Home owners, developers, farmers and ranchers, mining and timber
companies, businesses large and small, profit making and not for profit,
all have horror stories about regulatory hurdles they confront when they
want to do something, particularly with real property. Many of those
regulations are legitimate, of course, especially if they are aimed, preemp-tively,
at securing genuine rights. But many more are aimed at providing
some citizens with benefits at the expense of other citizens. They take
rights from some to benefit others. At the federal level, such transfers are
not likely to find authorization under any enumerated power. But even if
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constitutionally authorized, they need to be undertaken in conformity
with the Just Compensation Clause. Some endangered species, to take a
prominent modern example, may indeed be worth saving, even if the
authority for doing so belongs to states, and even if the impetus comes
from a relatively small group of people. We should not expect a few
property owners to bear all the costs of that undertaking, however. If the
public truly wants the habitat for such species left undisturbed, let it buy
that habitat or, failing that, pay the costs to the relevant owners of their
leaving their property unused.
In general, then, Congress should review the government's many regula-tions
to determine which are and are not authorized by the Constitution.
If not authorized, they should be rescinded, which would end quickly a
large body of regulatory takings now in place. But if authorized under
some enumerated power of Congress, the costs now imposed on owners,
for benefits conferred on the public generally, should be placed '' on
budget. '' Critics of doing that are often heard to say that if we did go on
budget, we couldn't afford all the regulations we want. What they are
really saying, of course, is that taxpayers would be unwilling to pay for
all the regulations the critics want. Indeed, the great fear of those who
oppose taking a principled approach to regulatory takings is that once the
public has to pay for the benefits it now receives '' free, '' it will demand
fewer of them. It should hardly surprise that when people have to pay for
something they demand less of it.
It is sheer pretense, of course, to suppose that such benefits are now
free, that they are not already being paid for. Isolated owners are paying
for them, not the public. As a matter of simple justice, then, Congress
needs to shift the burden to the public that is demanding and enjoying
the benefits. Among the virtues of doing so is this: once we have an
honest, public accounting, we will be in a better position to determine
whether the benefits thus produced are worth the costs. Today, we have
no idea about that because all the costs are hidden. When regulatory
benefits are thus '' free, '' the demand for them, as we see, is all but
unbounded.
But in addition to eliminating, reducing, or correcting its own regulatory
takings— in addition to getting its own house in order— Congress needs
to enact general legislation on the subject of takings that might help to
restore respect for property rights and reorient the nation toward its own
first principles. To that end, Congress should
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Enact Legislation That Specifies the Constitutional Rights of Property Owners under the Fifth Amendment's Just Compensation Clause
As already noted, legislation of the kind here recommended would be
unnecessary if the courts were doing their job correctly and reading the
Just Compensation Clause properly. Because they are not, it falls to
Congress to step in. Still, there is a certain anomaly in asking Congress
to do the job. Under our system, after all, the political branches and the
states represent and pursue the interests of the people within the constraints
established by the Constitution; and it falls to the courts, and the Supreme
Court in particular, to ensure that those constraints are respected. To do
that, the Court interprets and applies the Constitution as it decides cases
brought before it— cases often brought against the political branches or
a state, as here, where an owner seeks either to enjoin a government action
on the ground that it violates his rights or to obtain compensation under
the Just Compensation Clause, or both. Thus, it is somewhat anomalous
to ask or expect Congress to right wrongs that Congress itself may be
perpetrating. After all, is not Congress, in its effort to carry out the public's
will, simply doing its job?
The answer, of course, is yes, Congress is doing its job, and thus this
call for reform— against the '' natural'' inclination of Congress, if you
will— is somewhat anomalous. But that is not the whole answer. For
members of Congress take an oath to uphold the Constitution, which
requires them to exercise independent judgment about the meaning of its
terms. In doing that, they need to recognize that we do not live in anything
like a pure democracy. The Constitution sets powerful and far-reaching
restraints on the powers of all three branches of the federal government
and, since ratification of the Civil War Amendments, on the states as
well. Thus, the simple-minded majoritarian view of our system— whereby
Congress simply enacts whatever some transient majority of the population
wants enacted, leaving it to the Court to determine the constitutionality
of the act— must be resisted as a matter of the oath of office. The oath
is taken on behalf of the people, to be sure, but through and in conformity
with the Constitution. When the Court fails to secure the liberties of the
people, there is nothing in the Constitution to prevent Congress from
exercising the responsibility entailed by the oath of office. In fact, that
oath requires Congress to step into the breach.
There is no guarantee, of course, that Congress will do a better job of
interpreting the Constitution than the Court. In fact, given that Congress
is an '' interested'' party, it could very well do a worse job, which is why
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the Founders placed '' the judicial Power''— entailing, presumably, the
power ultimately to say what the law is— with the Court. But that is no
reason for Congress to ignore its responsibility to make its judgment
known, especially when the Court is clearly wrong, as it is here. Although
nonpolitical in principle, the Court does not operate in a political vacuum—
as it demonstrated in 1937, unfortunately, after Franklin Roosevelt's notori-ous
Court-packing threat. If the Court can be persuaded to undo the
centerpiece of the Constitution, the doctrine of enumerated powers, one
imagines it can be persuaded to restore property rights to their proper
constitutional status.
Thus, in addition to rescinding or correcting legislation that now results
in uncompensated regulatory takings, and enacting no such legislation in
the future, Congress should also enact a more general statute that specifies
the constitutional rights of property owners under the Fifth Amendment's
Just Compensation Clause, drawing upon common law principles to do
so. That means that Congress should
Follow the Traditional Common Law in Defining '' Private Property, '' '' Public Use, '' and '' Just Compensation''
As we saw above, property rights in America are not simply a matter
of the Fifth Amendment— of positive law. Indeed, during the more than
two years between the time the Constitution was ratified and took effect
and the time the Bill of Rights was ratified, property rights were protected
not only against private but against public invasion as well. That protection
stemmed, therefore, not from any explicit constitutional guarantee but
from the common law. Thus, the Just Compensation Clause was meant
simply to make explicit, against the new federal government, the guarantees
that were already recognized under the common law. (Those guarantees
were implicit in the new Constitution, of course, through the doctrine of
enumerated powers; for no uncompensated takings were therein author-ized.)
With the ratification of the Civil War Amendments— and the Four-teenth
Amendment's Privileges or Immunities Clause in particular— the
common law guarantees against the states were constitutionalized as well.
Thus, because the Just Compensation Clause takes its inspiration and
meaning from the common law of property, it is there that we must look
to understand its terms.
Those terms begin with '' private property'': '' nor shall private property
be taken for public use without just compensation. '' As every first-year
law student learns, '' private property'' means far more than a piece of
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real estate. Were that not the case, property law would be an impoverished
subject indeed. Instead, the common law reveals the many significations
of the concept '' property'' and the rich variety of arrangements that
human imagination and enterprise have made of the basic idea of private
ownership. As outlined above, however, those arrangements all come
down to three basic ideas— acquisition, exclusive use, and disposal— the
three basic property rights, from which more specifically described rights
may be derived.
With regard to regulatory takings, however, the crucial thing to notice
is that, absent contractual arrangements to the contrary, the right to acquire
and hold property entails the right to use and dispose of it as well. As
Madison said, people have '' a property'' in their rights. If the right to
property did not entail the right of use, it would be an empty promise.
People acquire property, after all, only because doing so enables them to
use it, which is what gives it its value. Indeed, the fundamental complaint
about uncompensated regulatory takings is that, by thus eliminating the
uses from property, government makes the title itself meaningless, which
is why it is worthless. Who would buy '' property'' that cannot be used?
The very concept of '' property, '' therefore, entails all the legitimate
uses that go with it, giving it value. And the uses that are legitimate are
those that can be exercised consistent with the rights of others, private
and public alike, as defined by the traditional common law. As outlined
above, however, the rights of others that limit the rights of an owner are
often fact dependent. Thus, legislation can state only the principle of the
matter, not its application in particular contexts. Still, the broad outlines
should be made clear in any congressional enactment: the term '' private
property'' includes all the uses that can be made of property consistent
with the common law rights of others, and those uses can be restricted
without compensating the owner only to secure such rights, not to secure
public goods or benefits.
The '' public use'' requirement also needs to be tightened, not least
because it is a source of private-public collusion against private rights.
As noted above, eminent domain was known in the 17th and 18th centuries
as '' the despotic power'' because no private person would have the power
to condemn, even if he had a worthy reason and did pay just compensation.
Yet we know that public agencies often do condemn private property for
such private uses as railroad rights-of-way, auto plant construction, and
casino parking lots. Those are rank abuses of the public use principle:
they amount to grants of private eminent domain— and invitations to
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public graft and corruption. Every private use has spillover benefits for
the public, of course. But if that were the standard for defining '' public
use, '' then every time someone wanted to expand his business over his
neighbor's property, he could go to the relevant public agency and ask
that the neighbor's property be condemned since the expansion would
benefit the public through increased jobs, business, taxes, what have you.
He would no longer need to bargain with his neighbor but could simply
ask— or '' pay''— the agency to condemn the property '' for the public
good. ''
Because it is a despotic power, even when just compensation is paid,
eminent domain should be used sparingly and only for a truly public use.
That means for a use that is broadly enjoyed by the public, rather than
by some narrow part of the public; and in the case of the federal government
it means for a constitutionally authorized use. More precisely, it means
for a use that is owned and controlled by the public. Condemnation, after
all, transfers title— either in part, for a regulatory taking, or in whole, for
a full taking. If the condemnation transfers title from one private party to
another, it is simply illegitimate.
Thus, condemnation for building a sports stadium may be authorized
under some state's constitution, but if the stadium is then owned and
managed by and for the benefit of private parties, the '' public use'' standard
has been abused, whatever the spill-over '' public'' benefits may be. Here
again it is the title that settles the matter. Yet even if the public keeps the
title, but the effect of the transfer is to benefit a small portion of the public
rather than the public generally, the condemnation is also likely to be
illegitimate because it is not truly for a '' public'' use. If some small group
wants the benefits provided by the condemnation, private markets provide
ample opportunities for obtaining them— the right way. To avoid abuse
and the potential for corruption, then, Congress needs to define '' public
use'' rigorously, with reference to titles and use.
Finally, Congress should define '' just compensation'' with reference
to its function: it is a remedy for the wrong of taking someone's property.
That the Constitution implicitly authorizes that wrong does not change
the character of the act, of course. As noted above, eminent domain
is '' justified'' for practical reasons— and because '' we'' authorized it
originally, although none of us today, of course, was there to do so. Given
the character of the act, then, the least the public can do is make the
victim whole. That too will be a fact-dependent determination. But Con-gress
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sation for all losses that arise from the taking, plus an added measure to
acknowledge the fact that the losses arise not by mere accident, as with
a tort, but from a deliberate decision by the public to force the owner to
give up his property.
It should be noted, however, that not every regulatory taking will require
compensation for an owner. Minimal losses, for example, may be difficult
to prove and not worth the effort. Moreover, some regulatory restrictions
may actually enhance the value of property or of particular pieces of
property— say, if an entire neighborhood is declared '' historic. '' Finally,
'' just compensation'' should always reflect market value before, and with
no anticipation of, regulatory restrictions. Given the modern penchant for
regulation, that may not always be easy. But in general, given the nature
of condemnation as a forced taking, any doubt should be resolved to the
benefit of the owner forced to give up his property.
If Congress enacts general legislation that specifies the constitutional
rights of property owners by following the common law in defining the
terms of the Just Compensation Clause, it will abolish, in effect, any real
distinction between full and partial takings. Nevertheless, Congress should
be explicit about what it is doing. Any legislation it enacts should
Treat Property Taken through Regulation the Same As Property Taken through Physical Seizure
The importance of enacting a unified and uniform takings law cannot
be overstated. Today, we have one law for '' full takings, '' '' physical
seizures, '' '' condemnations''— call them what you will— and another for
'' partial takings, '' '' regulatory seizures, '' or '' condemnations of uses. ''
Yet there is overlap, too: thus, as noted above, the Court recently said
that if regulations take all uses, compensation is due— perhaps because
eliminating all uses comes to the same thing, in effect, as a '' physical
seizure, '' whereas eliminating most uses seems not to come to the
same thing.
That appearance is deceptive, of course. In fact, the truth is much
simpler— but only if we go about discovering it from first principles. If
we start with an owner and his property, then define '' property, '' as above,
as including all legitimate uses, it follows that any action by government
that takes any property is, by definition, a taking— requiring compensation
for any financial losses the owner may suffer as a result. The issue is
really no more complicated than that. There is no need to distinguish
'' full'' from '' partial'' takings: every condemnation, whether '' full'' or
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'' partial, '' is a taking. Indeed, the use taken is taken '' in full. '' Imagine
that the property were converted to dollars— 100 dollars, say. Would we
say that if the government took all 100 dollars there was a taking, but if
it took only 50 of the 100 dollars there was not a taking? Of course not.
Yet that is what we say under the Court's modern takings doctrine because,
as one justice recently put it, '' takings law is full of these 'all-or-nothing'
situations. ''
That confusion must be ended. Through legislation specifying the rights
of property owners, Congress needs to make it clear that compensation
is required whenever government eliminates common law property rights
and an owner suffers a financial loss as a result— whether the elimination
results from regulation or from outright condemnation.
The promise of the common law and the Constitution will be realized,
however, only through procedures that enable aggrieved parties to press
their complaints. Some of the greatest abuses today are taking place
because owners are frustrated at every turn in their efforts to reach the
merits of their claims. Accordingly, Congress should
Provide a Single Forum in Which Property Owners May Seek Injunctive Relief and Just Compensation Promptly
In its 1998 term the Supreme Court decided a takings case that began
17 years before, in 1981, when owners applied to a local planning commis-sion
for permission to develop their land. After having submitted numerous
proposals, all rejected, yet each satisfying the commission's recommenda-tions
following a previously rejected proposal, the owners finally sued,
at which point they faced the hurdles the courts put before them. Most
owners, of course, cannot afford to go through such a long and expensive
process, at the end of which the odds are still against them. But that
process today confronts property owners across the nation as they seek
to enjoy and then to vindicate their rights. If it were speech or voting or
any number of other rights, the path to vindication would be smooth by
comparison. But property rights today have been relegated to a kind of
second-class status.
The first problem, as noted above, is the modern permitting regime.
We would not stand for speech or religion or most other rights to be
enjoyed only by permit. Yet that is what we do today with property rights,
which places enormous, often arbitrary power in the hands of federal,
state, and local '' planners. '' Driven by political goals and considerations—
notwithstanding their pretense to '' smart growth''— planning commissions
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open the application forum not only to those whose rights might be at
stake but to those with interests in the matter. Thus is the common law
distinction between rights and interests blurred and eventually lost. Thus
is the matter transformed from one of protecting rights to one of deciding
whose '' interests'' should prevail. Thus are property rights effectively
politicized. And that is the end of the matter for most owners because
that is as far as they can afford to take it.
When an owner does take it further, however, he finds the courts are
no more inclined to hear his complaint than was the planning commission.
Federal courts routinely abstain from hearing federal claims brought against
state and local governments, requiring owners to litigate their claims in
state courts before they can even set foot in a federal court on their federal
claims. Moreover, the Supreme Court has held that an owner's claim is
not ripe for adjudication unless (1) he obtains a final, definitive agency
decision regarding the application of the regulation in question, and (2) he
exhausts all available state compensation remedies. Needless to say, plan-ners,
disinclined to approve applications to begin with, treat those standards
as invitations to stall until the '' problem'' goes away. Finally, when an
owner does get into federal court with a claim against the federal govern-ment,
he faces the so-called Tucker Act Shuffle: he cannot get injunctive
relief and compensation from the same court but must instead go to a
federal district court for an injunction and to the Federal Court of Claims
for compensation.
The 105th and 106th Congresses tried to address those procedural
hurdles through several measures, none of which passed both houses.
They must be revived and enacted if the unconscionable way we treat
owners, trying simply to vindicate their constitutional rights, is to be
brought to an end. This is not a matter of '' intruding'' on state and local
governments. Under the Fourteenth Amendment, properly understood and
applied, those governments have no more right to violate the constitutional
rights of citizens than the federal government has to intrude on the legiti-mate
powers of state and local governments. Federalism is not a shield
for local tyranny. It is a brake on tyranny, whatever its source.
Conclusion
The Founders would be appalled to see what we have done to property
rights over the course of the 20th century. One would never know that
their status, in the Bill of Rights, was equal to that of any other right. The
time has come to restore respect for these most basic of rights, the founda-160
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tion of all of our rights. Indeed, despotic governments have long understood
that if you control property, you control the media, the churches, the
political process itself. We are not at that point yet. But if regulations that
provide the public with benefits continue to grow, unchecked by the need
to compensate those from whom they take, we will gradually slide to that
point— and in the process will pay an increasingly heavy price for the
uncertainty and inefficiency we create. The most important price, however,
will be to our system of law and justice. Owners are asking simply that
their government obey the law— the common law and the law of the
Constitution. Reduced to its essence, they are saying simply this: Stop
stealing our property; if you must take it, do it the right way— pay for it.
That hardly seems too much to ask.
Suggested Readings
Bethell, Tom. The Noblest Triumph: Property and Prosperity through the Ages. New York: St. Martin's, 1998.
Coyle, Dennis J. Property Rights and the Constitution: Shaping Society through Land Use Regulation. Albany, N. Y.: State University of New York Press, 1993.
DeLong, James V. Property Matters: How Property Rights Are under Assault— And Why You Should Care. New York: Free Press, 1997.
Eagle, Steven J. Regulatory Takings. Charlottesville, Va.: Michie Law Publishers, 1996. Ely, James W. Jr. The Guardian of Every Other Right: A Constitutional History of
Property Rights. 2d ed. New York: Oxford University Press, 1998.
Epstein, Richard A. Takings: Private Property and the Power of Eminent Domain. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1985.
Farah, Joseph, and Richard Pombo. This Land Is Our Land: How to End the War on Private Property. New York: St. Martin's, 1996.
Locke, John. '' Second Treatise of Government. '' In Two Treatises of Government. Edited by Peter Laslett. New York: Mentor, 1965.
Madison, James. '' Property. '' In National Gazette, March 29, 1792. Reprinted in The Papers of James Madison, vol. 14, 6 April 1791– 16 March 1793. Edited by Robert
A. Rutland et al. Charlottesville: University Press of Virginia, 1983. Pilon, Roger. '' Are Property Rights Opposed to Environmental Protection? '' In The
Moral High Ground: An Anthology of Speeches from the First Annual New York
State Conference on Private Property Rights. Edited by Carol W. LaGrasse. Stony
Creek, N. Y.: Property Rights Foundation of America, 1995. . '' Property Rights, Takings, and a Free Society. '' Harvard Journal of Law and
Public Policy 6 (1983).
Pipes, Richard. Property and Freedom: How through the Centuries Private Ownership Has Promoted Liberty and the Rule of Law. New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1999.
Siegan, Bernard H. Property and Freedom: The Constitution, the Courts, and Land-Use Regulation. New Brunswick, N. J.: Transaction Press, 1997.
Siegan, Bernard H., editor. Planning without Prices: The Takings Clause As It Relates to Land Use Regulation without Just Compensation. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington
Books, 1977.
—Prepared by Roger Pilon
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16. Tobacco and the Rule of Law
Congress should
deny funding for the Justice Department's racketeering suit
against cigarette makers, enact legislation to abrogate the multistate tobacco settle-ment,
and reject proposed legislation to regulate cigarette manufacturing
and advertising.
Introduction
Ten months after tobacco companies and 46 state attorneys general
settled their differences for a quarter of a trillion dollars, the U. S. Depart-ment
of Justice decided that it wanted a share of the plunder. DOJ's
complaint alleged that cigarette companies had been conspiring since the
1950s to defraud the American public and conceal information about the
effects of smoking. Specifically, the government contended that industry
executives knowingly made false and misleading statements about whether
smoking causes disease and whether nicotine is addictive.
On the one hand, DOJ promoted its novel lawsuit against cigarette
makers. On the other hand, the same watchdog agency stood idly by while
tobacco companies and state attorneys general teamed up to violate the
antitrust laws. The multistate tobacco settlement, a cunning and deceitful
bargain between the industry and the states, allows the tobacco giants to
monopolize cigarette sales and foist the cost onto smokers.
Congress can take affirmative steps to counteract those abuses of execu-tive
power: first, by denying funds for DOJ's ongoing lawsuit and, second,
by enacting legislation that abrogates the multistate tobacco settlement.
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At the same time, Congress should reject any attempt to regulate cigarette
advertising or the content of tobacco products.
Deny Funding for DOJ's Racketeering Suit against Cigarette Makers
In its litigation against the tobacco industry, the federal government
demanded billions of dollars to pay for health care expenditures— mostly
Medicare outlays— related to smoking. DOJ's legal theory was modeled
after the states' lawsuits, which were designed to replenish depleted Medi-caid
coffers. Like the states, the federal government argued that it could
sue tobacco companies without stepping into the shoes of each smoker.
That way, so the theory goes, DOJ would not be subject to the '' assumption-of-
risk'' defense that had been a consistent winner for the industry over
four decades of litigation.
As you would expect, government officials understood the assumption-of-
risk principle perfectly well. Indeed, former veterans affairs secretary
Jesse Brown invoked it when the government itself was threatened with
liability for having provided soldiers with cigarettes over many years. It
would be '' borderline absurdity'' to pay for '' veterans' personal choice
to engage in conduct damaging to their health, '' he said. '' If you choose
to smoke, you are responsible for the consequences. ''
Evidently that principle applied only if the defendant was a government
agency. When private companies were sued, DOJ asserted that it could
recover from the tobacco industry merely because smoking injured some-one
covered by Medicare— even if that person, having voluntarily assumed
the risk of smoking, could not recover on his own. The same tobacco
company selling the same cigarettes to the same smoker, resulting in the
same injury, would be liable only if the smoker was a Medicare recipient
and the government was the plaintiff. Otherwise, the assumption-of-risk
defense would apply. Liability hinged on the injured party's Medicare
status, a happenstance unrelated to any misconduct by the industry.
The federal government also wanted the court to ignore the traditional
tort law requirement that causation be demonstrated on a smoker-by-smoker
basis. Instead, DOJ wanted to adduce only aggregate statistics,
indicating a higher incidence of certain diseases among smokers than
among nonsmokers. For example, statistics showed that smokers are more
likely than nonsmokers to suffer burn injuries. So tobacco companies
would have to pay for many careless persons who fell asleep with a lit
cigarette. Similarly, the industry would have to shell out for persons who
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had heart attacks and other '' smoking-related'' diseases but who never
smoked. Without individualized corroborating evidence, aggregate statis-tics
might suggest liability. Only common sense would dictate otherwise.
To reinforce and supplement its bizarre tort theories, DOJ relied on
three statutes: the Medical Care Recovery Act, the Medicare Secondary
Payer Act, and the civil provisions of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt
Organizations Act. Federal judge Gladys Kessler dismissed both the
MCRA and MSPA claims out of hand. She allowed the RICO claim to go
forward, although she expressed some reservations about the government's
ability to prove damages.
Nowadays, RICO is used as a standard bullying tactic by plaintiffs'
attorneys, even though the act was supposed to be invoked against orga-nized
crime. This time, however, DOJ had to deal with an embarrassing
admission, tucked away in the final sentence of the press release that
announced its lawsuit: '' There are no pending Criminal Division investiga-tions
of the tobacco industry. ''
Two dozen prosecutors and FBI agents had conducted a five-year,
multi-million-dollar inquiry during which they dissected allegations and
plowed through documents for evidence that tobacco executives perjured
themselves and manipulated nicotine levels. Whistleblowers and company
scientists testified before grand juries. The outcome: not a single indictment
of a tobacco company or industry executive.
Nonetheless, then– attorney general Janet Reno somehow conjured up
a RICO claim that accused the industry of the very same infractions for
which grand juries could not find probable cause. Here's just one example,
count number three: In November 1959, the industry '' did knowingly cause
a press release to be sent and delivered by the U. S. mails to newspapers and
news outlets. This press release contained statements attacking an article
written by then– U. S. Surgeon General Leroy Burney about the hazards
of smoking. '' There you have it— racketeering, in all its sordid detail.
Clinton administration insiders knew that the charges were trumped up.
Former Clinton aide Rahm Emanuel put it this way: '' If the White House
hadn't asked, [Reno] would never have looked at it again. '' So it's politics,
not law, that's driving this litigation. The American public needs to know
that our tort system is rapidly becoming a tool for extortion. Sometimes
opportunistic politicians seek money; sometimes they pursue policy goals;
often they abuse their power. When Clinton was unable to persuade
Congress to enact another tax on smokers, he simply bypassed the legisla-ture
and asked a federal court to impose damages in lieu of taxes. Evidently,
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anything goes— and the rule of law goes out the window. But Congress
can do better. Call off the government's anti-tobacco crusade. Put an im-mediate
stop to DOJ's power grab by denying funds to continue its lawsuit.
Enact Legislation to Abrogate the Multistate Tobacco Settlement
While DOJ presses its campaign to extort money from hapless tobacco
companies, the Antitrust Division looks the other way as those same
companies, in collaboration with state attorneys general, commit what is
arguably the most egregious antitrust violation of our generation— a collu-sive
tobacco settlement that is bilking 45 million smokers out of a quarter
of a trillion dollars.
The Master Settlement Agreement, signed in November 1998 by the
major tobacco companies and 46 state attorneys general, transforms a
competitive industry into a cartel, then guards against destabilization of
the cartel by erecting barriers to entry that preserve the dominant market
share of the tobacco giants. Far from being victims, the big four tobacco
companies are at the very center of the plot. They managed to carve out
a protected market for themselves— at the expense of smokers and tobacco
companies that did not sign the agreement.
To be sure, the industry would have preferred that the settlement had
not been necessary. But given the perverse legal rules under which the
state Medicaid recovery suits were unfolding, the major tobacco companies
were effectively bludgeoned into negotiating with the states and the trial
lawyers. Finding itself in that perilous position, the industry shrewdly
bargained for something pretty close to a sweetheart deal.
The MSA forces all tobacco companies— even new companies and
companies that were not part of the settlement— to pay '' damages, '' thus
foreclosing meaningful price competition. Essentially, the tobacco giants
have purchased (at virtually no cost to themselves) the ability to exclude
competitors. The deal works like this: Philip Morris, Reynolds, Lorillard,
and Brown & Williamson knew they would have to raise prices substan-tially
to cover their MSA obligations. Accordingly, they were concerned
that smaller domestic manufacturers, importers, and new tobacco compa-nies
that didn't sign the agreement would gain market share by underpricing
cigarettes. To guard against that likelihood, the big four and their state
collaborators added three provisions to the MSA:
First, if the aggregate market share of the four majors were to decline
by more than two percentage points, then their '' damages'' payments
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would decline by three times the excess over the two-percentage-point
threshold. Any reduction would be charged against only those states that
did not adopt a '' Qualifying Statute, '' attached as an exhibit to the MSA.
Naturally, because of the risk of losing enormous sums of money, all of
the states have enacted the statute.
Second, the Qualifying Statute requires all tobacco companies that did
not sign the MSA to post pro rata damages— based on cigarette sales—
in escrow for 25 years to offset any liability that might hereafter be
assessed! That's right— no evidence, no trial, no verdict, no injury, just
damages. That was the stick. Then came the carrot.
Third, if a nonsettling tobacco company agreed to participate in the
MSA, the Qualifying Statute would not apply. In fact, the new participant
would be allowed to increase its market share by 25 percent of its 1997
level. Bear in mind that no nonsettling company in 1997 had more than
1 percent of the market, which, under the MSA, could grow to a whopping
1.25 percent. Essentially, the dominant companies guaranteed themselves
virtually all of the market in perpetuity.
Perhaps as troubling, the settlement has led to massive and continuing
shifts of wealth from millions of smokers to concentrated pockets of the
bar. Predictably, part of that multi-billion-dollar booty has started its
roundtrip back into the political process— to influence state legislators,
judges, attorneys general, governors, city mayors, maybe some federal
officials. With all that money in hand, trial lawyers have seen their politi-cal
influence grow exponentially. Every day that passes more firmly
entrenches the MSA as a fait accompli, and more tightly cements the
insidious relationship between trial attorneys and their allies in the public
sector. The billion-dollar spigot must be turned off before its corrupting
effect on the rule of law is irreversible.
An obvious way to turn off the spigot is to abrogate the MSA. If it is
allowed to stand, the MSA will create and finance a rich and powerful
industry of lawyers who know how to manipulate the system and are not
averse to violating the antitrust laws. Congress should dismantle the MSA
to restore competition. That's a tall order, but the stakes are immense.
Reject Proposed Legislation to Regulate Cigarette Manufacturing and Advertising
Under legislation introduced in June 2002 by Sens. Edward Kennedy
(D-Mass.), Mike DeWine (R-Ohio), and Richard Durbin (D-Ill.), the Food
and Drug Administration would be authorized to regulate cigarette ads and
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ingredients, including nicotine— or to ban nicotine altogether. Lamentably,
Philip Morris— the industry leader with the most to gain from restrictions
on would-be competitors— quickly chimed in to support many of the
proposals. Yet, if tobacco is to be regulated as a drug, Congress will
simply be guaranteeing a pervasive black market in tobacco products.
FDA regulation that makes cigarettes taste like tree bark, coupled with
higher prices, will inevitably foment illegal dealings dominated by criminal
gangs hooking underage smokers on an adulterated product freed of all
the constraints on quality that competitive markets usually afford.
The war on cigarettes, like other crusades, may have been well-inten-tioned
at the beginning; but as zealotry takes hold, the regulations become
foolish and ultimately destructive. Consider the current attempt to control
tobacco advertising. Not only are the public policy implications harmful,
but there are obvious First Amendment violations that should concern
every American who values free expression. Our Constitution protects
Klan speech, flag burning, and gangsta rap, which, by the way, directly
targets teenagers. But if Tiger Woods showed up in an ad for Camel
cigarettes, the anti-tobacco crowd would bring the boot of government
down hard on the neck of R. J. Reynolds.
Industry critics point to the impact of tobacco ads on uninformed and
innocent teenagers. But the debate is not about whether teens smoke; they
do. It's not about whether smoking is bad for them; it is. The real question
is whether tobacco advertising can be linked to increases in aggregate
consumption. There's no evidence for that link. The primary purpose of
cigarette ads, like automobile ads, is to persuade consumers to switch
from one manufacturer to another. Six European countries that banned
all tobacco ads have seen overall sales increase— probably because health
risks are no longer documented in the banned ads.
In 1983, the Supreme Court held that government may not '' reduce
the adult population . . . to reading only what is fit for children. '' Thirteen
years later, the Court affirmed that even vice products like alcoholic
beverages are entitled to commercial speech protection. Most recently,
the Court threw out Massachusetts regulations banning selected cigar and
smokeless tobacco ads. Those ads are not the problem. Kids smoke because
of peer pressure, because their parents smoke, and because they are rebel-ling
against authority.
If advertising were deregulated, newer and smaller tobacco companies
would vigorously seek to carve out a bigger market share by emphasizing
health claims that might bolster brand preference. In 1950, however,
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the Federal Trade Commission foreclosed health claims— such as '' less
smoker's cough''— as well as tar and nicotine comparisons for existing
brands. To get around that prohibition, aggressive companies created new
brands, which they supported with an avalanche of health claims. Filter
cigarettes grew from roughly 1 percent to 10 percent of domestic sales
within four years.
Then in 1954, the FTC tightened its restrictions by requiring scientific
proof of health claims, even for new brands. The industry returned to
promoting taste and pleasure; aggregate sales expanded. By 1957, scientists
had confirmed the benefit of low-tar cigarettes. A new campaign of '' Tar
Derby'' ads quickly emerged, and tar and nicotine levels collapsed 40
percent in two years. To shut down the flow of health claims, the FTC
next demanded that they be accompanied by epidemiological evidence,
of which none existed. The commission then negotiated a '' voluntary''
ban on tar and nicotine comparisons.
Not surprisingly, the steep decline in tar and nicotine ended in 1959.
Seven years later, apparently alerted to the bad news, the FTC reauthorized
tar and nicotine data but continued to proscribe associated health claims.
Finally, in 1970 Congress banned all radio and television ads. Overall
consumption has declined slowly since that time. In today's climate, the
potential gains from health-related ads are undoubtedly greater than ever—
for both aggressive companies and health-conscious consumers. If, how-ever,
government regulation expands, those gains will not be realized.
Instead of '' healthy'' competition for market share, we will be treated to
more imagery and personal endorsements— the very ads that anti-tobacco
partisans decry.
If the imperative is to reduce smoking among children, the remedy lies
with state governments, not the U. S. Congress. The sale of tobacco products
to youngsters is illegal in every state. Those laws need to be vigorously
enforced. Retailers who violate the law must be prosecuted. Proof of age
requirements are appropriate if administered objectively and reasonably.
Vending machine sales should be prohibited in areas such as arcades and
schools where children are the main clientele. And if a minor is caught
smoking or attempting to acquire cigarettes, his parents should be notified.
Parenting is, after all, primarily the responsibility of fathers and mothers,
not the government.
Instead, government has expanded its war on tobacco far beyond any
legitimate concern with children's health. Mired in regulations, laws, taxes,
and litigation, we look to Congress to extricate us from the mess it helped
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create. Yet if Congress authorizes the FDA to regulate cigarette ads and
control the content of tobacco products, it will exacerbate the problem.
Equally important, Congress will have delegated excessive and ill-advised
legislative authority to an unelected administrative agency, and set the
stage for significant intrusions on commercial free speech.
Suggested Readings
Bulow, Jeremy, and Paul Klemperer. '' The Tobacco Deal. '' In Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Microeconomics 1998. Washington: Brookings Institution, 1998.
Calfee, John E. '' The Ghost of Cigarette Advertising Past. '' Regulation, Novem-ber– December 1986.
Levy, Robert A. '' Tobacco-Free FDA. '' Administrative Law & Regulation News 2, no. 3 (Winter 1998).
. '' Tobacco Medicaid Litigation: Snuffing Out the Rule of Law. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 275, June 20, 1997.
O'Brien, Thomas C. '' Constitutional and Antitrust Violations of the Multistate Tobacco Settlement. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 371, May 18, 2000.
—Prepared by Robert A. Levy
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17. The War on Drugs
Congress should
repeal the Controlled Substances Act of 1970,
repeal the federal mandatory minimum sentences and the man-datory
sentencing guidelines, direct the administration not to interfere with the implementation
of state initiatives that allow for the medical use of mari-juana, and
shut down the Drug Enforcement Administration.
Ours is a federal republic. The federal government has only the powers
granted to it in the Constitution. And the United States has a tradition of
individual liberty, vigorous civil society, and limited government. Identifi-cation
of a problem does not mean that the government ought to undertake
to solve it, and the fact that a problem occurs in more than one state does
not mean that it is a proper subject for federal policy.
Perhaps no area more clearly demonstrates the bad consequences of
not following such rules than does drug prohibition. The long federal
experiment in prohibition of marijuana, cocaine, heroin, and other drugs
has given us crime and corruption combined with a manifest failure to
stop the use of drugs or reduce their availability to children.
In the 1920s Congress experimented with the prohibition of alcohol.
On February 20, 1933, a new Congress acknowledged the failure of alcohol
prohibition and sent the Twenty-First Amendment to the states. Congress
recognized that Prohibition had failed to stop drinking and had increased
prison populations and violent crime. By the end of 1933, national Prohibi-tion
was history, though many states continued to outlaw or severely
restrict the sale of liquor.
Today Congress confronts a similarly failed prohibition policy. Futile
efforts to enforce prohibition have been pursued even more vigorously in
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the 1980s and 1990s than they were in the 1920s. Total federal expenditures
for the first 10 years of Prohibition amounted to $88 million— about $733
million in 1993 dollars. Drug enforcement costs about $19 billion a year
now in federal spending alone.
Those billions have had some effect. Total drug arrests are now more
than 1.5 million a year. Since 1989 more people have been incarcerated
for drug offenses than for all violent crimes combined. There are now
about 400,000 drug offenders in jails and prisons, and more than 60 percent
of the federal prison population consists of drug offenders.
Yet, as was the case during Prohibition, all the arrests and incarcerations
haven't stopped the use and abuse of drugs, or the drug trade, or the crime
associated with black-market transactions. Cocaine and heroin supplies
are up; the more our Customs agents interdict, the more smugglers import.
And most tragic, the crime rate has soared. Despite the good news about
crime in the past few years, crime rates remain at unprecedented levels.
As for discouraging young people from using drugs, the massive federal
effort has largely been a dud. Despite the soaring expenditures on anti-drug
efforts, about half the students in the United States in 1995 tried an
illegal drug before they graduated from high school. Every year from
1975 to 1995, at least 82 percent of high school seniors said they found
marijuana '' fairly easy'' or '' very easy'' to obtain. During that same period,
according to federal statistics of dubious reliability, teenage marijuana use
fell dramatically and then rose significantly, suggesting that cultural factors
have more effect than the '' war on drugs. ''
The manifest failure of drug prohibition explains why more and more
people— from Nobel laureate Milton Friedman to conservative columnist
William F. Buckley Jr., former secretary of state George Shultz, Minnesota
governor Jesse Ventura, and New Mexico governor Gary Johnson— have
argued that drug prohibition actually causes more crime and other harms
than it prevents.
Repeal the Controlled Substances Act
The United States is a federal republic, and Congress should deal with
drug prohibition the way it dealt with alcohol prohibition. The Twenty-First
Amendment did not actually legalize the sale of alcohol; it simply
repealed the federal prohibition and returned to the several states the
authority to set alcohol policy. States took the opportunity to design diverse
liquor policies that were in tune with the preferences of their citizens.
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After 1933 three states and hundreds of counties continued to practice
prohibition. Other states chose various forms of alcohol legalization.
The single most important law that Congress must repeal is the Con-trolled
Substances Act of 1970. That law is probably the most far-reaching
federal statute in American history, since it asserts federal jurisdiction
over every drug offense in the United States, no matter how small or local
in scope. Once that law is removed from the statute books, Congress
should move to abolish the Drug Enforcement Administration and repeal
all of the other federal drug laws.
There are a number of reasons why Congress should end the federal
government's war on drugs. First and foremost, the federal drug laws are
constitutionally dubious. As previously noted, the federal government
can exercise only the powers that have been delegated to it. The Tenth
Amendment reserves all other powers to the states or to the people.
However misguided the alcohol prohibitionists turned out to have been,
they deserve credit for honoring our constitutional system by seeking a
constitutional amendment that would explicitly authorize a national policy
on the sale of alcohol. Congress never asked the American people for
additional constitutional powers to declare a war on drug consumers.
That usurpation of power is something that few politicians or their court
intellectuals wish to discuss.
Second, drug prohibition creates high levels of crime. Addicts commit
crimes to pay for a habit that would be easily affordable if it were legal.
Police sources have estimated that as much as half the property crime in
some major cities is committed by drug users. More dramatic, because
drugs are illegal, participants in the drug trade cannot go to court to settle
disputes, whether between buyer and seller or between rival sellers. When
black-market contracts are breached, the result is often some form of
violent sanction, which usually leads to retaliation and then open warfare
in the streets.
Our capital city, Washington, D. C., has become known as the '' murder
capital'' even though it is the most heavily policed city in the United
States. Make no mistake about it, the annual carnage that accounts for
America's still shockingly high murder rates has little to do with the mind-altering
effects of a marijuana cigarette or a crack pipe. It is instead one
of the grim and bitter consequences of an ideological crusade whose
proponents will not yet admit defeat.
Third, since the calamity of September 11, 2001, U. S. intelligence
officials have repeatedly warned us of further terrorist attacks. Given that
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danger, it is a gross misallocation of law enforcement resources to have
federal police agents surveilling marijuana clubs in California when they
could be helping to discover sleeper cells of terrorists on U. S. territory.
The Drug Enforcement Agency has 9,000 agents, intelligence analysts,
and support staff. Their skills would be much better used if those people
were redeployed to full-time counterterrorism investigations.
Fourth, drug prohibition is a classic example of throwing money at a
problem. The federal government spends some $19 billion to enforce the
drug laws every year— all to no avail. For years drug war bureaucrats
have been tailoring their budget requests to the latest news reports. When
drug use goes up, taxpayers are told the government needs more money
so that it can redouble its efforts against a rising drug scourge. When drug
use goes down, taxpayers are told that it would be a big mistake to curtail
spending just when progress is being made. Good news or bad, spending
levels must be maintained or increased.
Fifth, drug prohibition channels more than $40 billion a year into
the criminal underworld occupied by an assortment of criminals, corrupt
politicians, and, yes, terrorists. Alcohol prohibition drove reputable compa-nies
into other industries or out of business altogether, which paved the
way for mobsters to make millions in the black market. If drugs were
legal, organized crime would stand to lose billions of dollars, and drugs
would be sold by legitimate businesses in an open marketplace.
Drug prohibition has created a criminal subculture in our inner cities.
The immense profits to be had from a black-market business make drug
dealing the most lucrative endeavor for many people, especially those
who care least about getting on the wrong side of the law.
Drug dealers become the most visibly successful people in inner-city
communities, the ones with money and clothes and cars. Social order is
turned upside down when the most successful people in a community are
criminals. The drug war makes peace and prosperity virtually impossible
in inner cities.
Students of American history will someday ponder the question of how
today's elected officials could readily admit to the mistaken policy of
alcohol prohibition in the 1920s but recklessly pursue a policy of drug
prohibition. Indeed, the only historical lesson that recent presidents and
Congresses seem to have drawn from Prohibition is that government
should not try to outlaw the sale of booze. One of the broader lessons
that they should have learned is this: prohibition laws should be judged
according to their real-world effects, not their promised benefits. If the
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108th Congress will subject the federal drug laws to that standard, it will
recognize that the drug war is not the answer to problems associated with
drug use.
Respect State Initiatives
The failures of drug prohibition are becoming obvious to more and
more Americans. A particularly tragic consequence of the stepped-up war
on drugs is the refusal to allow sick people to use marijuana as medicine.
Prohibitionists insist that marijuana is not good medicine, or at least that
there are legal alternatives to marijuana that are equally good. Those who
believe that individuals should make their own decisions, not have their
decisions made for them by Washington bureaucracies, would simply say
that that's a decision for patients and their doctors to make. But in fact
there is good medical evidence of the therapeutic value of marijuana—
despite the difficulty of doing adequate research on an illegal drug. A
National Institutes of Health panel concluded that smoking marijuana may
help treat a number of conditions, including nausea and pain. It can be
particularly effective in improving the appetite of AIDS and cancer patients.
The drug could also assist people who fail to respond to traditional
remedies.
More than 70 percent of U. S. cancer specialists in one survey said they
would prescribe marijuana if it were legal; nearly half said they had urged
their patients to break the law to acquire the drug. The British Medical
Association reports that nearly 70 percent of its members believe marijuana
should be available for therapeutic use. Even President George Bush's
Office of National Drug Control Policy criticized the Department of Health
and Human Services for closing its special medical marijuana program.
Whatever the actual value of medical marijuana, the relevant fact for
federal policymakers is that in 1996 the voters of California and Arizona
authorized physicians licensed in those states to recommend the use of
medical marijuana to seriously ill and terminally ill patients residing in
the states, without being subject to civil and criminal penalties.
It came as no surprise when the Clinton administration responded to the
California and Arizona initiatives by threatening to bring federal criminal
charges against any doctor who recommended medicinal marijuana or any
patient who used such marijuana. After all, President Clinton and his
lawyers repeatedly maintained that no subject was beyond the purview
of federal officialdom.
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President Bush, on the other hand, has spoken of the importance of the
constitutional principle of federalism. Shortly after his inauguration, Bush
said, '' I'm going to make respect for federalism a priority in this administra-tion.
'' Unfortunately, the president's actions have not matched his words.
Federal police agents and prosecutors continue to raid medical marijuana
clubs in California and Arizona. And both of the president's drug policy
officials, Drug Czar John Walters and DEA Chief Asa Hutchinson, have
been using their offices to meddle in state and local politics. If it is
inappropriate for governors and mayors to entangle themselves in foreign
policy— and it is— it is also inappropriate for federal officials to entangle
themselves in state and local politics. In the 107th Congress, Reps. Barney
Frank (D-Mass.), Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), and Ron Paul (R-Tex.)
jointly proposed the States' Rights to Medical Marijuana Act, which would
have prohibited federal interference with any state that chose to enact a
medical marijuana policy. The 108th Congress should enact a similar bill
without delay.
One of the benefits of a federal republic is that different policies may
be tried in different states. One of the benefits of our Constitution is that
it limits the power of the federal government to impose one policy on the
several states.
Repeal Mandatory Minimums
The common law in England and America has always relied on judges
and juries to decide cases and set punishments. Under our modern system,
of course, many crimes are defined by the legislature, and appropriate
penalties are defined by statute. However, mandatory minimum sentences
and rigid sentencing guidelines shift too much power to legislators and
regulators who are not involved in particular cases. They turn judges into
clerks and prevent judges from weighing all the facts and circumstances
in setting appropriate sentences. In addition, mandatory minimums for
nonviolent first-time drug offenders result in sentences grotesquely dispro-portionate
to the gravity of the offenses.
Rather than extend mandatory minimum sentences to further crimes,
Congress should repeal mandatory minimums and let judges perform their
traditional function of weighing the facts and setting appropriate sentences.
Conclusion
Drug abuse is a problem for those involved in it and for their families
and friends. But it is better dealt with as a moral and medical than as a
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criminal problem—'' a problem for the surgeon general, not the attorney
general, '' as former Baltimore mayor Kurt Schmoke puts it.
The United States is a federal republic, and Congress should deal with
drug prohibition the way it dealt with alcohol prohibition. The Twenty-First
Amendment did not actually legalize the sale of alcohol; it simply
repealed the federal prohibition and returned to the several states the
authority to set alcohol policy. States took the opportunity to design diverse
liquor policies that were in tune with the preferences of their citizens.
After 1933 three states and hundreds of counties continued to practice
prohibition. Other states chose various forms of alcohol legalization.
Congress should repeal the Controlled Substances Act of 1970, shut
down the Drug Enforcement Administration, and let the states set their
own policies with regard to currently illegal drugs. They would do well
to treat marijuana, cocaine, and heroin the way most states now treat
alcohol: It should be legal for stores to sell such drugs to adults. Drug
sales to children, like alcohol sales to children, should remain illegal.
Driving under the influence of drugs should be illegal.
With such a policy, Congress would acknowledge that our current drug
policies have failed. It would restore authority to the states, as the Founders
envisioned. It would save taxpayers' money. And it would give the states
the power to experiment with drug policies and perhaps devise more
successful rules.
Repeal of prohibition would take the astronomical profits out of the
drug business and destroy the drug kingpins who terrorize parts of our
cities. It would reduce crime even more dramatically than did the repeal
of alcohol prohibition. Not only would there be less crime; reform would
also free federal agents to concentrate on terrorism and espionage and free
local police agents to concentrate on robbery, burglary, and violent crime.
The war on drugs has lasted longer than Prohibition, longer than the
Vietnam War. But there is no light at the end of this tunnel. Prohibition
has failed, again, and should be repealed, again.
Suggested Readings
Benjamin, Daniel K., and Roger Leroy Miller. Undoing Drugs: Beyond Legalization.
New York: Basic Books, 1991.
Boaz, David. '' A Drug-Free America— Or a Free America? '' U. C. Davis Law Review
24 (1991).
Boaz, David, ed. The Crisis in Drug Prohibition. Washington: Cato Institute, 1991.
Buckley, William F. Jr., et al. '' The War on Drugs Is Lost. '' National Review, February
12, 1996.
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Luna, Erik. '' The Misguided Guidelines: A Critique of Federal Sentencing. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis, no. 458, November 1, 2002.
Lynch, Timothy, ed. After Prohibition: An Adult Approach to Drug Policies in the 21st Century. Washington, Cato Institute, 2000.
Masters, Bill. Drug War Addiction. St. Louis: Accurate Press, 2002. McNamara, Joseph. '' The Defensive Front Line. '' Regulation (Winter 2001): 19– 21.
Ostrowski, James. '' The Moral and Practical Case for Drug Legalization. '' Hofstra Law Review 18 (1990).
Pilon, Roger. '' The Medical Marihuana Referendum Movement in America: Federalism Implications. '' Testimony before the House Crime Subcommittee, October 1, 1997.
—Prepared by David Boaz and Timothy Lynch
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18. Restoring the Right to Bear Arms
Congress should
use its constitutional authority over the District of Columbia
to overturn D. C. 's handgun ban and enact a '' shall issue'' concealed carry licensing statute,
repeal the Gun Control Act of 1968, and
enact legislation that would authorize airlines to arm pilots
who volunteer and complete appropriate training.
For decades, the Second Amendment was consigned to constitutional
exile, all but erased from constitutional law textbooks and effectively
banished from the nation's courts. But no more. Recent developments in
the law and in political culture have begun the process of returning the
amendment to its proper place in our constitutional pantheon. The 108th
Congress now has a historic opportunity, not simply to stave off new gun-control
proposals, but to begin restoring Americans' right to keep and
bear arms.
Emergence from Exile
Ideas have consequences, and so does constitutional text. Though elite
opinion reduced the Second Amendment to a constitutional inkblot for a
good part of the 20th century, gun enthusiasts and grassroots activists
continued to insist that the amendment meant what it said. And slowly,
often reluctantly, legal scholars began to realize that the activists were
right. Liberal law professor Sanford Levinson conceded as much in a 1989
Yale Law Review article titled '' The Embarrassing Second Amendment. ''
UCLA Law School's Eugene Volokh took a similar intellectual journey.
After a 1990 argument with a nonlawyer acquaintance who loudly main-tained
that the Second Amendment protected an individual right, Volokh
concluded that his opponent was a '' blowhard and even a bit of a kook. ''
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But several years later, as he researched the subject, he discovered to his
'' surprise and mild chagrin, that this supposed kook was entirely right'':
the amendment secures the individual's right to keep and bear arms.
That's also what the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals concluded in October
2001 when it decided United States v. Emerson. It held that the Constitution
'' protects the right of individuals, including those not then actually a
member of any militia . . . to privately possess and bear their own firearms
. . . that are suitable as personal individual weapons. ''
U. S. Attorney General John Ashcroft has endorsed the Emerson court's
reading of the amendment. First, in a letter to the National Rifle Associa-tion,
Ashcroft stated his belief that '' the text and the original intent of the
Second Amendment clearly protect the right of individuals to keep and
bear firearms. '' That letter was followed by Justice Department briefs
before the Supreme Court in the Emerson case and in United States v.
Haney. For the first time, the federal government argued in formal court
papers that the '' Second Amendment . . . protects the rights of individuals,
including persons who are not members of any militia . . . to possess and
bear their own firearms, subject to reasonable restrictions designed to
prevent possession by unfit persons or . . . firearms that are particularly
suited to criminal misuse. ''
The Right of the People
What's driving the new consensus? Let's look at the amendment's text:
'' A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State,
the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed. ''
The operative clause ('' the right of the people to keep and bear Arms,
shall not be infringed'') secures the right. The explanatory clause ('' A
well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State'')
justifies the right. That syntax was not unusual for the times. For example,
Article I, section 8, of the Constitution gives Congress the power to grant
copyrights in order to '' Promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts. ''
Yet copyrights are also granted to Hustler, to racist publications, even to
literature that expressly seeks to retard science and the arts. The proper
understanding of the copyright provision is that promoting science and the
arts is one justification— but not the only justification— for the copyright
power. Analogously, the militia clause helps explain why we have a right
to bear arms, but it's not necessary to the exercise of that right.
As George Mason University law professor Nelson Lund puts it, imagine
if the Second Amendment said, '' A well-educated Electorate, being neces-180
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sary to self-governance in a free state, the right of the people to keep and
read Books shall not be infringed. '' Surely, no rational person would
suggest that only registered voters have a right to read. Yet that is precisely
the effect if the text is interpreted to apply only to a well-educated electorate.
Analogously, the Second Amendment cannot be read to apply only to
members of the militia.
The Second Amendment, like the First and the Fourth, refers explicitly
to '' the right of the people. '' Consider the placement of the amendment
within the Bill of Rights, the part of the Constitution that deals exclusively
with rights of individuals, not powers of the state. No one can doubt
that First Amendment rights (speech, religion, assembly) belong to us as
individuals. Similarly, Fourth Amendment protections against unreason-able
searches and seizures are individual rights. In the context of the
Second Amendment, we secure '' the right of the people'' by guaranteeing
the right of each person. Second Amendment protections are not for the
state but for each individual against the state— a deterrent to govern-ment
tyranny.
And not just against government tyranny. The Second Amendment also
secures our right to protect ourselves from criminal predators. After all,
in 1791 there were no organized, professional police forces to speak of
in America. Self-defense was the responsibility of the individual and the
community, and not, in the first instance, of the state. Armed citizens,
responsibly exercising their right of self-defense, are an effective deterrent
to crime.
Today, states' incompetence at defending citizens against criminals is
a more palpable threat to our liberties than is tyranny by the state. But
that incompetence coupled with a disarmed citizenry could well create
the conditions that lead to tyranny. The demand for police to defend us
increases in proportion to our inability to defend ourselves. That's why
disarmed societies tend to become police states. Witness law-abiding inner-city
residents, many of whom have been disarmed by gun control, begging
for police protection against drug gangs— despite the terrible violations
of civil liberties that such protection entails, such as curfews and anti-loitering
laws. The right to bear arms is thus preventive— it reduces the
demand for a police state. George Washington University law professor
Robert Cottrol put it this way: '' A people incapable of protecting them-selves
will lose their rights as a free people, becoming either servile
dependents of the state or of the criminal predators. ''
Over the years, our elected representatives have adopted a dangerously
court-centric view of the Constitution: a view that decisions about constitu-181
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tionality are properly left to the judiciary. But members of Congress also
swear an oath to uphold the Constitution. Congress can make good on
that oath by taking legislative action to restore our right to keep and bear
arms. To that end, Congress should take the following steps.
Repeal D. C. 's Handgun Ban and Enact Concealed Carry
No jurisdiction in the United States works as doggedly to disarm citizens
as does the District of Columbia, our nation's capital and on-again, off-again
murder capital. Yes, the city council grudgingly legalized pepper
spray in 1993 (provided, of course, that it's properly registered), but that
brief concession to self-defense hasn't led to any revision of the District's
gun laws, which are still among the most restrictive in America. D. C.
bans the possession of unregistered handguns and prohibits, with very
few exceptions, the registration of any handgun not validly registered in
the District prior to 1976.
In the wake of the Emerson decision and Attorney General Ashcroft's
endorsement of the individual right to keep and bear arms, the District's
federal public defender decided that D. C. 's sweeping gun ban was vulnera-ble.
In May 2002, the Washington Post reported that D. C. 's federal
defender had filed motions challenging the gun ban on behalf of several
clients accused of violating the ban and the District's law against carrying
firearms. In all, roughly three dozen challenges to the D. C. law have been
filed thus far.
Because the District is not a state, felonies under D. C. law are prosecuted
by the U. S. attorney for the District of Columbia, an employee of the
Justice Department— the same Justice Department that is now on record
as favoring an individual rights theory of the Second Amendment. To be
sure, Ashcroft had declared in an internal memorandum that the Justice
Department '' will continue to defend the constitutionality of all existing
federal firearms laws. '' But D. C. law, although enacted pursuant to con-gressional
delegation, is not federal law. Therefore, the U. S. attorney might
have been expected to support a motion to drop the handgun possession
charges pending in these cases.
Instead, the U. S. attorney argued that the D. C. handgun ban must be
upheld in light of binding precedent from the D. C. Court of Appeals in
a 1987 case, Sandidge v. United States. That case flatly repudiates the
individual right to bear arms. The Sandidge court stated baldly that '' the
right to keep and bear arms is not a right conferred upon the people by
the federal constitution''— a statement that's rather hard to square with
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the Second Amendment, which speaks of the '' right'' of the '' people''
to '' keep and bear arms. ''
It's one thing for Attorney General Ashcroft to endorse the individual
right to bear arms in a letter to a friendly interest group, or to affirm it
in a footnote in a legal brief. It's quite another to follow up words with
action. As Julie Leighton of the District's Public Defender Service puts
it, Ashcroft's Justice Department '' is currently prosecuting individuals
solely for 'bearing' a pistol, even though many of those individuals have
no prior convictions and are adult citizens of full mental capacity. Thus
the United States persists in prosecuting District of Columbia residents
for conduct that the Attorney General has expressly deemed protected by
the United States Constitution. ''
Whatever the reasons for Attorney General Ashcroft's perplexing deci-sion
to continue prosecuting gun-ban violations, Congress has the constitu-tional
authority to protect District residents' right to bear arms. Article I,
section 8, clause 17, of the Constitution gives Congress the power '' to
exercise exclusive legislation in all cases whatsoever'' over the District
of Columbia. Congress can and should use that authority to repeal the
District's gun ban and enact a '' shall-issue'' concealed carry licensing
statute. Such statutes mandate that handgun permits be issued to citizens
who satisfy certain objective criteria such as citizenship, mental compe-tence,
lack of a criminal record, and completion of a firearms training
course. Thirty-one states have shall-issue laws, and, as exhaustive research
by American Enterprise Institute scholar John R. Lott Jr. has shown, they
deter crime. Lott found that '' the reductions in violent crime are greatest
in the most crime prone, most urban areas. Women, the elderly and blacks
gained by far the most from this ability to protect themselves. ''
In contrast, for more than 25 years, D. C. residents have served as guinea
pigs in a public-policy experiment in near-total gun prohibition. That
experiment has failed catastrophically. Congress can and should end that
illegitimate experiment and restore District residents' right to keep and
bear arms.
Repeal the Gun Control Act of 1968
The Gun Control Act of 1968, with subsequent amendments, is bad
law and bad public policy. It ought to be repealed. Full repeal is not a
radical step; Ronald Reagan endorsed it in 1980. But until that can be
accomplished, Congress should, at a minimum, repeal the most oppres-sive
sections:
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The 1994 Ban on So-Called Assault Weapons
Those guns do not fire faster than other guns, nor are they more powerful.
Indeed, they fire smaller bullets at lower velocities than do most well-known
rifles used for hunting big game. The assault weapons statute is
purely cosmetic— banning guns because of politically incorrect features
such as bayonet lugs (as if drive-by bayoneting were a problem) or a rifle
grip that protrudes '' conspicuously'' from the gun's stock. Police statistics
from around the nation show that such guns are rarely used in crime. The
federal ban will sunset in 2004, but Congress should repeal it immediately.
The 1994 Ban on Possession of Handguns by Persons under 18
Assuming that such a ban could survive Second Amendment scrutiny,
it is a topic that should be addressed by state, not federal, law. The statute
does include some exceptions— for example, a parent may take a child
target shooting— but, even if the child is under direct and continuous
parental supervision, the parent commits a federal crime unless she writes
a note giving the child permission to target shoot and the child carries
the note at all times. The 1994 prohibition usurps traditional state powers,
is overbroad, and encroaches on parental rights, despite a paucity of
empirical evidence that the ban will reduce gun accidents or gun-related
violence.
The Ban on Gun Possession by Specified Adults
When adult behavior is regulated, the Second Amendment weighs more
heavily than when restrictions are imposed on minors. Even if Second
Amendment constraints are somehow satisfied, the federal government
has no constitutional authority in this area. Particularly unfair, whether
imposed by federal or state law, is the ban on gun possession by anyone
who is subject to a domestic restraining order, routinely issued by divorce
courts without any finding that the subject of the order is a danger to
another person. Such provisions ought not to be allowed to stand.
Arm the Pilots
Just as armed citizens can deter aggression on our city streets, they can
do so in our nation's skies. On September 11, 2001, a few hijackers armed
with box cutters were able to hold scores of airline passengers at bay,
secure in the knowledge that American airplanes are gun-free zones. But
when we turn planes, airports, schools, and workplaces into gun-free zones,
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we also turn them into criminal-safe zones. If on the other hand we make
it nearly certain that someone will be armed on every commercial flight,
the enemies of liberty will have second thoughts about using American
aircraft as weapons of mass destruction.
Imagine that you are a terrorist deciding whose plane to use as your
next weapon. One airline boasts in its ads, '' Our Planes Are Gun-Free
Zones. '' A second, with somewhat less self-righteousness, admonishes
that '' One or More Employees Will Be Armed on Every Flight. '' Not
much question which one you'd fly. Now picture yourself as a safety-conscious
passenger. Still not much question, but the choice won't be the
same. That's the case in a nutshell for armed sky marshals and armed pilots.
Let's start with sky marshals. Having an armed federal marshal on
every flight would certainly deter terrorists. But the problem is cost. Just
one marshal per daily flight would require 35,000 officers— more than
twice the number employed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the
Secret Service, and U. S. Marshals Service combined. Yes, a marshal might
be able to average three to four flights each day. Then again, most proposals
call for more than one marshal per flight. Put it all together and we're
talking about roughly 15 thousand to 20 thousand new employees, salaried
at $30,000 and up per year, plus the cost of training.
Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta, hostile to the idea of anyone
but federal marshals carrying firearms on U. S. flights, has worked to
greatly expand the federal air marshal program. About 6, 000 new marshals
have been hired since September 11. That rapid expansion has reduced
the quality of new hires and left the air marshal program in disarray,
according to an August 2002 USA Today expose´. According to one disillu-sioned
former marshal, the program has become '' like security-guard
training at the mall. ''
Instead of going on a federal hiring binge, why not rely on the talented
people the airlines already have? Why not allow pilots to be armed?
'' These men and women operate $100 million pieces of equipment. They
can sure learn to operate a .38 snub-nose if they want to, '' says aviation
consultant Michael Boyd. The Airline Pilots Association, with overwhelm-ing
support from its members, wants armed pilots in cockpits. So do the
public and Congress. The airlines are opposed only because they fear the
trial lawyers.
'' Under the old model of hijackings, '' said a union spokesman, the
'' strategy was to accommodate, negotiate and do not escalate. But that
was before. The cockpit has to be defended at all costs. '' In a crisis, a
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pilot's gun would never leave the cockpit because the pilot never would.
And if a terrorist were able to penetrate the cockpit, shooting him within
the cockpit's door frame would not require a sniper's skill.
An armed pilots program would be strictly voluntary. It would require
extensive background screening and psychological testing, as well as
classroom and practical training, roughly equivalent to what sky marshals
would receive. After all, we now allow weapons on planes if they're
carried by sheriffs, FBI and Secret Service agents, postal inspectors, and
bodyguards of foreign dignitaries. If those risks are acceptable, then let's
arm pilots who can protect all passengers' lives. Better yet, leave it up
to the individual airlines. They own the property and they can set the rules.
The broader principle is this: On September 11, the United States
government failed at its single most important function— protecting Ameri-can
citizens against foreign aggression. Armed civilians can deter aggres-sion.
That means safer planes, shopping malls, schools, and other public
places. Law enforcement officers can't be everywhere, but an armed,
trained citizenry can be.
For too long, elite opinion in America has been implacably opposed
to armed self-defense. The underlying philosophy, expressed by Pete
Shields, former president of Handgun Control, is that '' the best defense
is . . . no defense— give them what they want. '' After September 11, that
philosophy is no longer valid, if it ever was. It's time for the 108th
Congress to repudiate it.
Suggested Readings
Halbrook, Steven P. '' Second Class Citizenship and the Second Amendment in the District of Columbia. '' George Mason University Civil Rights Law Journal 5 (1995).
Kopel, David B. The Samurai, the Mountie, and the Cowboy: Should America Adopt the Gun Controls of Other Democracies? Amherst, N. Y.: Prometheus Books, 1992.
Lott, John R. Jr. More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun-Control Laws. 2d ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2000.
Lund, Nelson. '' A Primer on the Constitutional Right to Keep and Bear Arms. '' Virginia Institute for Public Policy Report no. 7, June 2002.
Snyder, Jeffrey R. '' Fighting Back: Crime, Self-Defense, and the Right to Carry a Handgun. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no 284, October 22, 1997.
United States v. Emerson, 270 F. 3d. 203 (5th Cir. 2001).
—Prepared by Gene Healy and Robert A. Levy
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19. Guns and Federalism
Congress should
defund Project Safe Neighborhoods and
reject efforts to bar municipal lawsuits against gun manufac-turers.
Members of Congress who support gun rights are currently engaged
in a dubious tradeoff: to save the Second Amendment, they've decided
to undermine the Tenth. For two years running, Congress has appropriated
funds for President Bush's key crime-fighting program, Project Safe Neigh-borhoods,
which is designed to ward off calls for additional gun control
by ramping up enforcement of the gun laws already on the books. But
the program illegitimately federalizes the prosecution of gun possession
crimes ordinarily left to the states. Meanwhile, members of Congress who
support gun rights want to use federal power to reform state tort law.
They're pushing legislation that would shield firearms manufacturers and
sellers from ongoing municipal lawsuits over gun violence. Both of those
efforts rely on an expansive interpretation of federal authority that has no
constitutional basis; the 108th Congress should abandon both.
Defund Project Safe Neighborhoods
Project Safe Neighborhoods is the public-policy embodiment of the
National Rifle Association sound bite '' we don't need any new gun control
laws; we need to enforce the gun laws on the books. '' The program funds
more than 800 new prosecutors (around 200 federal, 600 state level) who
will do nothing but pursue gun-law violations full time.
The federal prosecutors hired under PSN focus on a narrow section of
the federal criminal code that duplicates state criminal statutes relating to
gun possession. Those provisions prohibit things that are already illegal
in all 50 states, such as possession of a handgun by a convicted felon or
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a drug user or an illegal alien. The problem with federal enforcement of
those laws is that most of them ought not to be on the books in the first
place. They're based on an overbroad interpretation of Congress's power
to regulate commerce among the states. The Commerce Clause was
designed to create the original North American free-trade zone by promot-ing
and regularizing commerce among the states. It was never intended to
give the federal government general police powers. Indeed, by enumerating
only three federal crimes, treason, piracy, and counterfeiting, the Constitu-tion
makes it clear that the federal role in criminal law enforcement is
narrow. As Alexander Hamilton put it in Federalist no. 17, '' the ordinary
administration of criminal justice'' belongs to the states.
PSN takes over the ordinary administration of criminal justice from the
states by increasing federalization of crime and dictating state prosecutorial
priorities. And if the federal government has the power to prosecute local
handgun crimes, it's hard to see why it doesn't also have the power to
punish ordinary assault, drunk driving, traffic violations, or anything else
we've traditionally left to the states.
More disturbing still is the prospect that PSN will lead to a mindless
'' zero tolerance'' policy for technical infractions of gun laws. Federal
prosecutors already operate under an incentive structure that George Wash-ington
University Law School professor Jonathan Turley compares with
'' the body count approach in Vietnam.... They feel a need to produce
a body count to Congress to justify past appropriations and secure future
increases. ''
This '' body count'' mentality may help explain the fact that recent
federal firearms prosecutions have included Katica Crippen, a Colorado
woman who was convicted under the felon-in-possession statutes for
posing nude on the Internet with a gun, and Dane Yirkovsky, an Iowa
man who was sent to federal prison for 15 years for possession of a single
.22-caliber bullet.
We can expect more of the same as PSN ramps up firearms prosecutions
because, unlike that of a regular prosecutor, a PSN prosecutor's full-time
job is pursuing gun offenders. A PSN prosecutor will not be able to turn
to other areas of the criminal code after the worst gun-law violators have
been prosecuted. Add to that the fact that a job as a full-time gun prosecutor
is likely to appeal disproportionately to attorneys with an ideological
hostility toward gun ownership, and PSN begins to sound like something
dreamed up by Sarah Brady herself.
Moreover, the program threatens to open a Pandora's box leading to
the further politicization of criminal justice. The model set up by PSN
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practically invites special interest groups to drive prosecutorial priorities
via federal funding. What are PSN supporters in Congress going to say
when demands are made for federal dollars for local, full-time domestic
violence prosecutors or hate crime prosecutors? So long as Congress
continues to fund PSN, it will be hard-pressed to say that local crime is
not a federal issue.
Leave Tort Reform to the States
Led by the city of Chicago, a number of municipalities have filed suit
against gun manufacturers for damages incurred due to the misuse of guns
by criminals. Some of the suits allege '' negligent marketing''— charging
that gun manufacturers flood the suburbs with more guns than legitimate
customers will buy, knowing that dealers will sell the excess supply
illegally to criminals from the inner city. Others assert that guns are
defective and unreasonably dangerous products because manufacturers
design their guns without safety features that are purportedly easy and
economical to install. At bottom, both legal theories rest on the outlandish
proposition that gun makers are responsible for the criminal misconduct
of certain of their customers.
A broad coalition of gun-rights supporters in Congress wants to quash
those suits with federal tort reform. Two bills moving through the House
and Senate provide that gun manufacturers and distributors cannot be sued
for damages (or other relief) if someone is injured when a gun is used
unlawfully.
It's easy to understand the concerns that spurred those bills. Federal
tort reform supporter Rep. Chris John (D-La.) is correct when he calls
the gun lawsuits '' frivolous'' and warns that they '' jeopardize a legitimate,
legal business that is worth billions of dollars to our national economy. ''
But not every national problem is a federal problem. Advocates of gun
rights who back federal tort reform have forgotten the Tenth Amendment's
admonition that powers not delegated to the federal government in the
Constitution remain with the states or the people. The power to control
frivolous lawsuits belongs to the states.
Where in the Constitution could the federal government find authority
to ban state and local lawsuits against the gun industry? According to the
tort reform bills pending in both the House and the Senate, the answer is
the all-purpose Commerce Clause. As the bills' supporters see it, the
lawsuits interfere with interstate commerce, and therefore Congress has
the authority to stop them.
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But the Commerce Clause, properly interpreted, does not give Congress
blanket authority to regulate any activity that might affect commerce.
Rather, the purpose of the Commerce Clause was functional: to secure
the free flow of commerce among the states. That means Congress may
act only when actual or imminent state regulations impede free trade
among the states, or when it's clear that uniform national regulations are
essential for that purpose. Even then, Congress's power ought properly
extend no further than to the regulation of (1) channels and vehicles of
interstate commerce (such as waterways, airways, and railroads);
(2) discrimination by a state against out-of-state interests (for example,
restrictions on imported goods); and (3) attempts by a state to exercise
sovereignty beyond the state's borders (such as state rules governing
national stock exchanges, telecommunications, banking, and broadcast or
Internet advertising). Under no credible theory of the commerce power
can Congress use that power to regulate noncommercial activities like
lawsuits, which are designed to prevent and redress injuries, not to regulate
interstate trade.
Yes, lawsuits against gun companies affect commerce. But so does just
about any state regulation or any court decision. The Commerce Clause
could not prevent California, for example, from requiring catalytic convert-ers
on cars sold in the state. The Commerce Clause would not permit the
federal government to override state minimum wage laws, or state safety
regulations on power plants or even on firearms. Yet all of those state
rules affect interstate commerce.
Companies have a remedy when state courts permit phony lawsuits.
They can stop doing business in a state that has an oppressive tort regime.
And that remedy honors the federalist idea that the states serve as 50
experimental laboratories. For example, physicians and insurance compa-nies
are leaving Mississippi because outrageous damage awards have
driven the price of malpractice insurance prohibitively high. Ultimately,
the voters in oppressive states will have to choose between access to
products and extortionate tort law. As more businesses leave, the choice
will become obvious. Yes, there's an effect on commerce when out-of-state
companies leave. But the effect is not related to the interstate aspect
of commerce. There's a similar effect when in-state companies shut down.
In Mississippi, in-state and out-of-state insurance companies, or gun com-panies
for that matter, are all exposed to the same tort regime. That's why
the Commerce Clause should not apply.
Those supporters of gun rights who would have it otherwise are asking
for trouble. Ronald Reagan once noted that a government big enough to
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give you everything you want is big enough to take it all away. A similar
dynamic exists with constitutional interpretation: a Commerce Clause
broad enough to solve every national problem is too broad not to be
abused. When Congress's authority to regulate commerce is misused to
impose federal rules that restrict state gun lawsuits, we should not be
surprised that it will also be misused to impose federal rules that restrict
gun possession and ownership.
Suggested Readings
Epstein, Richard A. '' The Proper Scope of the Commerce Power. '' Virginia Law Review 73 (1987).
Healy, Gene. '' There Goes the Neighborhood: The Bush-Ashcroft Plan to 'Help' Local-ities Fight Gun Crime. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 440, May 28, 2002.
Levy, Robert A. '' Pistol Whipped: Baseless Lawsuits, Foolish Laws. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 400, May 9, 2001.
Reynolds, Glenn Harlan. '' Kids, Guns and the Commerce Clause: Is the Court Ready for Constitutional Government? '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 216, October
10, 1994. United States v. Lopez, 514 U. S. 549 (1995).
—Prepared by Gene Healy and Robert A. Levy
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20. The Limits of Monetary Policy
Congress should
uphold its constitutional duty to maintain the purchasing power
of the dollar by enacting legislation that makes long-run price stability the primary objective of Federal Reserve monetary
policy; recognize that the Fed cannot fine-tune the real economy but
can achieve price stability by limiting the growth of base money to a noninflationary path;
hold the Fed accountable for achieving expected inflation of
0– 2 percent a year; abolish the Exchange Stabilization Fund, since the Fed's role
is to stabilize the domestic price level, not to stabilize the foreign exchange value of the dollar by intervening in the foreign
exchange market; and offer no resistance to the emergence of digital currency (money
stored in digital form on microchips embedded in computer hard drives or in '' smart cards'') and other substitutes for Fed-eral
Reserve notes, so that free-market forces can help shape the future of monetary institutions.
History has shown that monetary stability— money growth consistent
with a stable and predictable value of money— is an important determinant
of economic stability. Safeguarding the long-run purchasing power of
money is also essential for the future of private property and a free society.
In the United States, persistent inflation has eroded the value of money
and distorted relative prices, making production and investment decisions
more uncertain. In the early 1970s, wage-price controls were imposed that
attenuated economic freedom and increased government discretion, thus
undermining the rule of law. Although those controls have been removed
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and inflation appears to be under control, there is no guarantee of future
price-level stability.
Current law specifies no single objective for monetary policy and lacks
an enforcement mechanism to achieve monetary stability. The multiplicity
of goals and the absence of an appropriate penalty-reward structure to
maintain stable money are evident from section 2A of the amended Federal
Reserve Act:
The Board of Governors . . . and the Federal Open Market Committee
shall maintain long-run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates
commensurate with the economy's long-run potential to increase produc-tion,
so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment,
stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.... Nothing in this Act
shall be interpreted to require that the objectives and plans with respect to
the ranges of growth or diminution of the monetary and credit aggregates
disclosed in the reports submitted under this section be achieved.
From 1975 to 1999, the Federal Reserve reported its monetary targets
to Congress. It no longer does. Alan Greenspan has done a commendable
job of keeping inflation relatively low since he took office in 1987, but
his performance is no guarantee of future success in achieving money of
stable value.
The U. S. monetary system continues to be based on discretionary gov-ernment
fiat money, with no legally enforceable commitment to long-run
price stability as the sole objective of monetary policy. Clark Warburton's
1946 characterization of U. S. monetary law as '' ambiguous and chaotic''
still rings true.
The large amount of discretion exercised by the Fed and the uncertainty
it entails reflect Congress's failure to provide an adequate legal framework
for stable money, as intended in Article I, section 8, of the Constitution.
If the Fed were subject to a monetary rule, stop-go monetary policy— an
extremely important factor in generating business fluctuations— could be
halted. There is a growing consensus among economists and Fed officials
that long-run price stability should be the focus of monetary policy, but
Congress has yet to enact legislation that would bind the Fed to that
objective and hold the chairman accountable for erratic changes in the
quantity of money and persistent rises in the price level.
In his July 2000 '' Monetary Report to the Congress, '' Greenspan stated:
'' Irrespective of the complexities of economic change, our primary goal
is to find those policies that best contribute to a noninflationary environment
and hence to growth. The Federal Reserve, I trust, will always remain
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vigilant in pursuit of that goal. '' But will it? And should the public trust
the discretionary power of an '' independent'' central bank not bound by
any rule?
William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and
a proponent of zero inflation, has pointed to the market disruption caused
by the lack of a clear monetary rule to guide Fed policy:
The fact that markets so often respond to comments and speeches by Fed
officials indicates that the markets today are not evaluating monetary policy
in the context of a well-articulated and well-understood monetary rule. The
problem is a deep and difficult one.
Congress should face that problem and retain the power to regulate the
value of money by mandating that maintaining price stability is the Fed's
primary duty.
Mandate Price Stability as the Fed's Primary Duty
The 108th Congress should amend the Federal Reserve Act to make
long-run price stability— i. e., expected inflation of 0– 2 percent a year—
the sole goal of monetary policy. (If price indexes correctly measured
inflation, zero expected inflation would be the preferred target. But since
price indexes typically understate the extent of quality improvement, zero
expected inflation can be in fact deflation.)
The Fed's function is not to set interest rates or to target the rate of
unemployment or real growth. The Fed cannot control relative prices,
employment, or output; it can directly control only the monetary base
(currency held by the public and bank reserves) and thereby affect money
growth, nominal income, and the average level of money prices. In the
short run, the Fed can affect output and employment, as well as real
interest rates, but it cannot do so in the long run.
The tradeoff between unemployment and inflation that is the basis for
the Phillips curve is not a viable monetary policy option for the Fed.
Market participants learn quickly and will revise their plans to account
for the inflationary impact of faster money growth designed to reduce
unemployment below its so-called natural rate. The results of those revi-sions—
such as demanding higher money wages to compensate for
expected inflation— will frustrate politicians intent on using monetary
policy to stimulate the real economy. Cato Institute chairman William
Niskanen, in a recent empirical study, made the following points.
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'' There is no tradeoff of unemployment and inflation except in the
same year. '' '' In the long term, the unemployment rate is a positive function of
the inflation rate. '' '' The minimum sustainable unemployment rate is about 3.7 percent
and can be achieved only by a zero steady-state inflation rate. ''
Evidence also shows that inflation and long-run growth are inversely related (Figure 20. 1). Inflation introduces distortions in the financial system
and impedes the efficient allocation of resources. Those distortions and others have a negative impact on economic growth. Since inflation is
primarily a monetary phenomenon (caused by excess growth of the money supply over and above long-run output growth), it cannot increase real
growth— but it can decrease it. That is why monetary stability and, hence, price-level stability are so important.
The Fed cannot attain more than one policy target with one policy instrument. The only instrument the Fed has direct control over is the
Figure 20.1 Real Growth and Inflation Move in Opposite Directions
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0
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4
6
8
10
66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00
Percent
Real GDP Growth Inflation
SOURCE: Alan Reynolds, '' The Fed's Whimsical Monetary Tinkering, '' Figure 1, as updated.
NOTE: Inflation is calculated from the GDP chain-type index.
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monetary base; the surest target is long-run price stability. The Fed could
use either an adaptive feedback rule, such as that proposed by Carnegie
Mellon economist Bennett McCallum, or an inflation-targeting rule, such
as New Zealand has successfully used. With the feedback rule, the Fed
would adjust the growth of the monetary base to keep nominal GDP (or
domestic final sales) on a smooth noninflationary growth path. With an
inflation target, the Fed would adjust the monetary base so that the growth
rate of the price level was approximately zero in the long run. There
would be some rises and falls in the price level due to supply-side shocks,
either positive or negative, but expected inflation would remain close to
zero (in the 0– 2 percent range) over time.
Congress need not dictate the exact rule for the Fed to follow in its
pursuit of long-run price stability, but Congress should hold the Fed
accountable for achieving that goal— and not require the Fed to respond
to supply shocks that would lead to one-time increases or decreases in
the price level.
The public's trust and confidence in the future purchasing power of
the dollar can be permanently increased by a legal mandate directing the
Fed to adopt a monetary rule to achieve long-run price stability. According
to Poole:
The logic, and the evidence, both suggest that the appropriate goal for
monetary policy should be price stability, that is, a long-run inflation rate
of approximately zero.... Acentral bank's single most important job is
preserving the value of the nation's money. Monetary policy has succeeded
if the public can reasonably trust that a dollar will buy tomorrow what it
will buy today. . . . I am confident that our economy's long-run performance
would be enhanced by a monetary policy that aims at, achieves, and
maintains a zero rate of inflation.
That institutional change— from a fully discretionary monetary authority
to one bound by law to a single target— not only would bolster the Fed's
reputation but would enhance the efficiency of the price system and allow
individuals to better plan for the future. People's property rights would
be more secure as a result. Congress should not miss the opportunity to
return to its original constitutional duty of maintaining the value of money
and safeguarding property rights.
Recognize the Limits of Monetary Policy
The Fed cannot permanently increase the rate of economic growth or
permanently lower the rate of unemployment by increasing money growth,
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nor can it permanently lower real interest rates. But it can throw the
economy off track by policy errors— that is, by creating either too much
or too little money to maintain stable expectations about the long-run
value of the currency. The most grievous error of discretionary monetary
policy, as Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz have shown in A Monetary
History of the United States, was the Fed's failure to prevent the money
supply from shrinking by one-third between 1929 and 1933, which turned
a sharp but otherwise ordinary recession into the Great Depression.
Economics, like medicine, is not an exact science. The guiding principle
of economic policy should be the great physician Galen's (A. D. 160)
admonition to '' first do no harm. '' Instead of pursuing in vain an activist
monetary policy designed to fine-tune the economy and achieve all good
things— full employment, economic growth, and price stability— Fed pol-icy
ought to be aimed at what it can actually achieve.
Three questions Congress must contemplate in its oversight of monetary
policy are (1) What can the Fed do? (2) What can't it do? (3) What should
it do?
What the Fed Can Do
The Fed can
control the monetary base through open market operations, reserve
requirements, and the discount rate;
provide liquidity quickly to shore up public confidence in banks
during a financial crisis;
influence the level and growth rate of nominal variables, in particular
monetary aggregates, nominal income, and the price level;
control inflation and prevent monetary instability in the long run; and
influence expectations about future inflation and nominal interest
rates.
What the Fed Cannot Do
The Fed cannot
target real variables so as to permanently reduce the rate of unemploy-ment
or increase economic growth;
determine real interest rates;
peg the nominal exchange rate and at the same time pursue an
independent monetary policy aimed at stabilizing the price level,
without imposing capital controls;
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fine-tune the economy; or
make accurate macroeconomic forecasts.
What the Fed Should Do
The Fed should
keep the growth of nominal GDP on a stable, noninflationary path
so that expected inflation is close to zero by controlling the mone-tary
base;
let market forces determine exchange rates so that the dollar and
other key currencies are free to find their equilibrium value in the
foreign exchange market; and
avoid predicating monetary policy on stock market performance.
By recognizing the limits of monetary policy, Congress will also recog-nize
the importance of enacting a law that establishes a clear framework
for such policy. Mandating long-run price stability as the Fed's sole
objective is a goal the public can understand and a target the Fed can
achieve and be held accountable for.
Hold the Fed Accountable
If a law making price stability the sole aim of monetary policy is to
be effective, the Fed must be held responsible for failure to meet that
target. That means the law must clearly state the price-stability target
while letting the Fed choose how best to achieve it.
The New Zealand inflation-targeting law is instructive. The Reserve
Bank Act of 1989 states that the sole objective of monetary policy is price
stability. A target range is set for inflation, as measured by the consumer
price index, which the governor of the Reserve Bank must achieve within
a specified time horizon, with exceptions made for supply shocks. The
governor is required to sign a contract, the Policy Targets Agreement,
with the finance minister, in which the governor agrees to a target range
for inflation set by the finance minister, the period for achieving it, and
the penalty of dismissal for failing to meet the target. That arrangement
has served New Zealand well in terms of achieving a low rate of inflation
while letting its currency float on the foreign exchange market. Unlike
countries with pegged exchange rates and no monetary rule, New Zealand
sailed through the Asian financial crisis quite smoothly.
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Congress should draw on the experience of New Zealand to create a
credible monetary law that holds the chairman of the Fed accountable for
achieving long-run price stability.
Abolish the Exchange Stabilization Fund
If the Fed is to focus solely on maintaining the purchasing power of
the dollar, then it cannot also use monetary policy to peg the foreign
exchange, or external, value of the dollar. The dollar must be free to float
without exchange market intervention. Halting such intervention requires
that Congress abolish the Exchange Stabilization Fund, which was created
in 1934 by the Gold Reserve Act. The ESF has been used by the Treasury
to try to '' stabilize'' the external value of the dollar, but without success.
It has also been used to make dollar loans to support the currencies of
less-developed countries. It is time to get rid of this relic of the New Deal
and let markets, not the state, determine the relative price of the dollar.
Welcome the Evolution of Alternatives to Government Fiat Money
While Congress should hold the Fed responsible for maintaining the
value of money, in terms of its domestic purchasing power, Congress
should also welcome the emergence of alternatives to government fiat
money, such as digital cash. New monetary institutions should be allowed
to evolve as new technology and information become available.
The growth of electronic commerce will increase the demand for new
methods of payment, methods that economize on paper currency. As
consumers' trust in electronic cash grows, the demand for the Fed's base
money may decrease. That may actually make it easier for a monetary
rule to be implemented because the Fed need not worry about complications
arising from changes in the ratio of currency to deposits, according to
University of Georgia economist George Selgin. Indeed, Milton Fried-man's
simple rule of zero growth of the monetary base may work quite
well in the information age, and it may be a step toward private competing
currencies, as advocated by F. A. Hayek. Consumers would have greater
monetary freedom and money with the best record of stable purchasing
power as a result.
A concrete measure to promote greater monetary choice would be for
Congress to repeal the 1 percent tax on bank-issued notes that is still on
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the books (U. S. C., title 12, section 541), as suggested by Kurt Schuler,
an economist with the Joint Economic Committee.
Conclusion
Monetary disturbances have been either a major cause of or a key
accentuating factor in business fluctuations. Reducing uncertainty about
the future path of nominal GDP and the price level would help remove
erratic money as a disrupting influence in economic life. As Friedman
has pointed out, one of the most important things monetary policy can
do is '' prevent money itself from being a major source of economic
disturbance. ''
It is time for Congress to accept its constitutional responsibility by
making the Fed more transparent and holding it accountable for long-run
price stability. In testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of the
U. S. Congress in March 1995, economist David Meiselman summed up
the case for limiting Fed discretion and mandating a stable price-level rule:
It is . . . dangerous folly to expect or depend on the Fed to achieve what
is beyond its power to attain. The best possible monetary policy cannot
create jobs or production. It can only prevent the instability, the uncertainty,
and the loss of employment and income resulting from poor monetary
policy. In my judgment, the best possible monetary policy aims to achieve
a stable and predictable price level.
Congress should now heed that advice and create an institutional frame-work
that recognizes the limits of monetary policy and sets a firm basis
for a credible long-run commitment to stable money in the post-Greenspan
era. Monetary policy should not depend on any one individual. It should
depend on rules that limit discretion, mandate price stability, and hold the
Fed chairman accountable for failing to achieve money of stable value.
Financial markets will then show less anxiety upon the departure of the
'' wise one. ''
The Greenspan record can be extended by moving from discretion to
a clear rule for price stability, thereby converting trust in a particular
individual into confidence in a rule that will long outlast any single Fed
chairman. Ending stop-go monetary policy will generate social benefits
by reducing the uncertainty due to erratic money, making it easier to plan
long-term investment projects and increasing the efficiency of resource
allocation. Economic growth will be more robust as a result.
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The major thrust of this chapter has been to call on Congress to make
the Fed accountable for maintaining the long-run value of the currency.
But Congress should not limit its vision to a monetary system dominated
by a government-run central bank, even if that institution is limited by a
monetary rule. Rather, Congress should welcome the vision of a future
in which the free market plays an important role in supplying money of
stable value, in competition with the Fed. The choice of monetary institu-tions
should ultimately be a free choice, made by the market, not dictated
by law.
Suggested Readings
Dorn, James A. '' Alternatives to Government Fiat Money. '' Cato Journal 9, no. 2 (Fall 1989): 277– 94.
Dorn, James A., ed. The Future of Money in the Information Age. Washington: Cato Institute, 1997.
Dorn, James A., and Anna J. Schwartz, eds. The Search for Stable Money. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987.
Friedman, Milton. '' The Role of Monetary Policy. '' American Economic Review 58 (1968): 1– 17.
Gwartney, James, Kurt Schuler, and Robert Stein. '' Achieving Monetary Stability at Home and Abroad. '' Cato Journal 21, no. 2 (Fall 2001): 183– 203.
Keleher, Robert E. '' A Response to Criticisms of Price Stability. '' Study for the Joint Economic Committee of the U. S. Congress, September 1997, www. house. gov/ jec.
McCallum, Bennett T. '' Choice of Target for Monetary Policy. '' Economic Affairs (Autumn 1995): 35– 41.
Meiselman, David I. '' Accountability and Responsibility in the Conduct of Monetary Policy: Mandating a Stable Price Level Rule. '' Testimony before the Joint Economic
Committee of the U. S. Congress on the Humphrey-Hawkins Act. 104th Cong., 1st sess., March 16, 1995.
Niskanen, William A. '' On the Death of the Phillips Curve. '' Cato Journal 22, no. 2 (Fall 2002).
. '' A Test of the Demand Rule. '' Cato Journal 21, no. 2 (Fall 2001): 205– 9. Poole, William. '' Is inflation Too Low? '' Cato Journal 18, no. 3 (Winter 1999): 453– 64.
. '' Monetary Policy Rules? '' Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 81 (March– April 1999): 3– 12.
Reynolds, Alan. '' The Fed's Whimsical Monetary Tinkering. '' Outlook: Ideas for the Future from Hudson Institute 1, no. 4 (April 1997): 1– 16.
. '' The Fiscal Monetary Policy Mix. '' Cato Journal 21, no. 2 (Fall 2001): 263– 75. Schuler, Kurt. '' Note Issue by Banks: A Step toward Free Banking in the United States? ''
Cato Journal 20, no. 3 (Winter 2001): 453– 65.
Schwartz, Anna J. '' Time to Terminate the ESF and the IMF. '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 48, August 26, 1998.
Walsh, Carl E. '' Accountability in Practice: Recent Monetary Policy in New Zealand. '' FRBSF Economic Letter no. 96-25, September 9, 1996.
—Prepared by James A. Dorn
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21. Financial Deregulation
Congress should
repeal the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977,
reject the Federal Deposit Insurance Reform Act of 2002 (H. R.
3717) that calls for increasing the deposit insurance limit to $130, 000 and gives the Federal Deposit Insurance Corpora-tion
greater discretion in the setting of insurance premiums, enact the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protec-tion
Act of 2002 with stronger provisions, and revoke Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's federal charters and
fully privatize those two government-sponsored enterprises.
With the passage of the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Mone-tary
Control Act of 1980, which removed ceilings on deposit interest rates,
Congress began a gradual dismantling of the regulatory barriers that, since
the Great Depression, had made the financial services industry among the
most regulated sectors of the U. S. economy and the U. S. financial sector
among the most regulated in the world. That regulatory burden also made
the financial services industry unnecessarily fragile. The deregulatory trend
continued with the Federal Deposit Insurance Improvement Act of 1991,
which introduced some risk sensitivity to deposit insurance premiums; the
Neal-Riegle Interstate Banking Act of 1994, which established nationwide
banking networks by removing the geographic restrictions on branching;
and the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999, which repealed much of the
Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 and the Bank Holding Company Act of 1956,
created financial holding companies, and ended the artificial separation of
insurance companies and commercial and investment banks. Some changes
were just the legal recognition of something that was already happening
in the marketplace. For instance, the computer and telecommunications
revolution made geographic branching restrictions obsolete. Other changes,
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such as the ones to the FDICIA, were a reaction to crises precipitated
by the existence of previous regulations. But while Congress deserves
to be congratulated for its past efforts, there is much work left to do
to eliminate the inefficiencies and risks created by previous regulations
and to allow U. S. financial firms to give consumers the full range of
financial services they demand.
The Community Reinvestment Act
One of the major shortcomings of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act is that
it did not end the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977, a law enacted to
encourage banks to help meet the credit needs of their entire communities,
including low-and moderate-income neighborhoods, consistent with the
safe and sound operation of banks. To the contrary, it gave the CRA more
'' teeth'' by requiring that institutions have a satisfactory CRA rating before
a merger involving those institutions can take place or before they engage
in any of the new financial activities authorized under that law.
At present, federally insured lending institutions such as banks and
thrifts are required to collect data on the loans they make and how those
loans are allocated. Federal regulators then evaluate those data in a subjec-tive
and arbitrary manner to determine how well the financial institutions
are meeting the credit needs of the neighborhoods from which they gather
deposits. After all the work is done at considerable expense to the institu-tions
that are rated and taxpayers who fund the agencies that conduct the
examinations, about 98 percent of banks receive a satisfactory or better
rating. (Banks receive one of four ratings: Outstanding, Satisfactory, Needs
Improvement, and Substantial Non-Compliance.)
Some supporters of the CRA maintain that banks are lending in low-income
neighborhoods because of the legislation. Others claim that the
high percentage of banks that obtains a satisfactory rating or better is an
indication that the current legislation is too lax and that it needs to be
strengthened. But the fact is that there is no evidence that the CRA
has had any discernible effects on lending in low-income or distressed
neighborhoods, nor is there evidence that a stronger CRA would benefit
low-income neighborhoods. Where profitable investment opportunities
exist, banks are already lending. Where they do not, banks are not lending
and should not be required to do so.
If the CRA had a real impact, we should expect financial institutions
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munities than lending institutions that are not subject to the law. But
Jeffery W. Gunther, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas,
and others have shown the opposite to be true. Financial institutions subject
to the CRA are actually lending less in low-income communities than
institutions not subject to the CRA. The elimination of branching restric-tions,
financial innovations, the new technology that has allowed lenders
to screen potential borrowers better (and thus differentiate between good
and bad credit risks in the same neighborhoods), and increased competition
have increased the availability of financial services to low-income commu-nities.
In this new and more competitive environment, banks are unlikely
to forgo profitable lending opportunities to otherwise creditworthy borrow-ers—
regardless of race, location, or any other noneconomic characteristic
of those borrowers.
There is evidence, however, that the CRA has had at least four negative
effects on the communities that it seeks to help. First, outside banks seeking
mergers or an expansion of their activities will provide subsidized loans
in low-income neighborhoods to avoid CRA-related problems, thus misal-locating
capital and driving customers away from local institutions that
would have otherwise provided credit to local borrowers. Second, the
CRA makes it difficult for banks to close branches in distressed areas.
The unintended consequence is that other banks that might consider open-ing
new branches in low-income neighborhoods may choose not to do so
lest they be unable to close them at a future date. In the end, there is less
competition in those areas and consumers suffer. Third, the CRA prevents
banks from specializing in servicing specific groups because the banks
do not want to be accused of discriminating against other groups. Finally,
by increasing the costs to banks of doing business in distressed communi-ties,
the CRA makes banks likely to deny credit to marginal borrowers
that would qualify for credit if costs were not so high. Chief among those
costs is the hundreds of millions of dollars in CRA loans that community
activists obtain from banks to give their approval of bank mergers and
other bank expansions of activities, in an exercise that can be characterized
as legalized extortion.
In the final analysis, the CRA provides few benefits to those it is
meant to help, while imposing substantial compliance costs to banks and
taxpayers. In addition, there is conclusive evidence that the problem that
the CRA was intended to correct— lack of adequate access to credit in
low-income neighborhoods— no longer exists. For those reasons, the CRA
should not be reformed; it should be repealed.
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Deposit Insurance Reform
The House of Representatives passed by a vote of 408 to 18 the Federal
Deposit Insurance Reform Act of 2002 (H. R. 3717), a bill introduced by
Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-Ala.). Among other things, that legislation would
increase the coverage limit for insured deposits from the current $100, 000
to $130,000, index the new limit to inflation, and adjust it every five
years. It would also give the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation greater
discretion in the way it charges premiums on banks and allow it to charge
premiums on banks at all times, regardless of the risk individual banks
pose for the FDIC fund or of the size of the fund.
The increase in the coverage limit is the measure that has received the
most attention in the press and from policymakers. Higher limits would
weaken market discipline by making depositors more indifferent to the
risks taken by their banks without improving the welfare of consumers
(who already have many opportunities to get FDIC insurance equal to
several times $100, 000) or the competitive position of small banks (the
strongest proponents of the increase) vis-a `-vis large banks.
Both the Federal Reserve and the U. S. Treasury are vigorously opposed
to the increase. Indeed, in remarks before the Senate Banking Committee
in the spring of 2002, Peter Fisher, under secretary of the Treasury for
domestic finance, said, '' We see no sound public policy purpose that
would be served by an increase in current and future coverage limits. ''
Alan Greenspan concurred with that statement, noting that '' it is unlikely
that increased coverage, even by indexing, would add measurably to the
stability of the banking system today. ''
Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), the ranking Republican on the Senate
Banking Committee, also opposes the increase to $130,000. In an interview
with the American Banker, Shelby stated his opposition to raising the
current limit by saying, '' Let's roll [that limit] back to $10,000. '' Reducing
the limit makes sense for at least two reasons. First, depositors would
become more vigilant about the risks taken by banks, thus increasing
market discipline. That discipline would be even stronger if the limit were
to apply to depositors instead of accounts or deposits. Second, depositors
can already obtain risk-free U. S. Treasury bills that are equivalent to cash
in terms of their liquidity. Thus the coverage limit for insured deposits
should be no greater than the minimum denomination for short-term
Treasury bills. Today, for instance, the minimum denomination for a four-week
Treasury bill is $1,000. Any coverage amount above that represents
a potential taxpayer subsidy of the risk-taking activities of banks.
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From the point of view of the taxpayer, however, an increase in the
coverage limit is not the most dangerous provision of the reform proposals.
Giving the FDIC more discretion in the way it charges premiums on banks
is the most dangerous provision, because it could very well mean that
taxpayers could again be liable for any losses that occurred to the deposit
insurance fund, just as they were in the 1980s when the savings-and-loan
crisis cost them approximately $150 billion. All four banking regulators
are unfortunately in favor of that measure.
Under the current structure, which has been in place since 1991, banks
are responsible for any losses to the deposit insurance fund through a
system of rapid required ex post premiums. If losses to the insurance fund
reduce the FDIC's ratio of reserves to insured deposits below 1.25 percent,
the FDIC is required to automatically increase premiums to at least 23
basis points if the 1.25 percent ratio is not achieved within one year.
Although many observers consider that system too harsh, because it
imposes the highest premiums when banks are the least likely to be able
to afford them, it has worked reasonably well in preserving the stability
of the banking system— and the pocketbooks of taxpayers. As Loyola
University banking and finance professor George Kaufman has written in
a recent Cato Institute study, '' The threat of a premium increase of 23
basis points serves to encourage banks to pressure the FDIC to resolve
insolvencies more quickly and efficiently'' and thus avoid regulatory
forbearance or negligence.
Giving the FDIC more discretion over premium policy is undesirable
because, as Kaufman says, '' The longer premiums are not increased . . .
the more likely the fund is to go into deficit and the taxpayer to again
become liable. '' Indeed, it is likely that discretion will lead to regulatory
forbearance because regulators will be under tremendous pressure from
banks and politicians alike to delay the imposition of higher premiums,
if and when banks get into trouble.
Furthermore, regulators may view bank failures as a black mark on
their records and thus have an incentive to delay the imposition on failed
banks of sanctions or even resolution proceedings. In short, regulators
have often been poor guardians of the interests of taxpayers.
For that reason, it is important to consider the benefits of private, market-based
regulation of banking. Federal deposit insurance is not market priced,
despite FDICIA's mandate that the FDIC set premiums according to
risk, and so the moral hazard of a government guarantee of deposits
remains. To encourage the use of market discipline in the bank supervisory
process, Congress should consider establishing a subordinated-debt
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requirement, so that the holders of that debt provide the main monitoring function in the supervisory process. A subordinated-debt requirement
would align the interest of subordinated-debt holders with those of the deposit insurance fund (and hence taxpayers), because they do not profit
from a bank's risky investments if those investments turn out to be profit-able, but they stand to lose their money if those investments are not
profitable. For that reason, holders of subordinated debt would have a very strong incentive to monitor closely the activities of banks. At the
same time, yields on subordinated debt provide the market's assessment of the risks taken by banks. Indeed, the interest paid on subordinated debt
could serve as a market-determined risk-adjusted insurance premium. At the very least, the current system of rapid required ex post premium
increases to fund losses to the FDIC fund should be maintained with a reduction— not an increase— in the coverage limit, lest we compromise
the safety and soundness of the U. S. banking system and revert to a system of unlimited taxpayer liability. Beyond that, Congress should consider
moving toward a system of voluntary, privately funded and managed deposit insurance.
Real Bankruptcy Reform Needed Now More Than Ever
The 107th Congress passed bankruptcy reform legislation by wide margins in both the House and the Senate, just as the 106th Congress had
done. This time, however, the House and Senate bills were reconciled in a conference committee to produce the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and
Consumer Protection Act of 2002, which had the support of President Bush. Unfortunately, an abortion-related provision in the bankruptcy reform bill
once again prevented Congress from enacting a much-needed reform that would curb somewhat the abuses that occur under the existing bankruptcy
code, a code that makes filing for bankruptcy very attractive for many debtors, including those who can easily pay their debts.
At present, individual debtors can file for bankruptcy under Chapter 7 or Chapter 13 once every six years. Consumers who file under Chapter
13 agree to a court-approved plan for repaying their debts from future earnings over three to five years. Chapter 13 filers, however, do not have
to liquidate their current assets to repay creditors. Consumers who file under Chapter 7, on the other hand, must use all
their present wealth above an exemption to repay their debts, but their postbankruptcy earnings remain untouched. The exemption includes per-sonal
items, equity in owner-occupied housing, retirement accounts, and cars. The justification for exempting those items and all future income is
that it provides filers with a '' fresh start'' in life after bankruptcy.
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But, because the exemption levels are usually very high or filers have
few nonexempt assets, in more than 90 percent of Chapter 7 cases, there
is no property to be liquidated. The result: creditors get nothing. Conse-quently,
most consumers who file for bankruptcy do so under Chapter 7
rather than Chapter 13.
Under current law, the benefits of filing for bankruptcy greatly outweigh
the costs for many households. The costs include the filing fee (usually
a few hundred dollars), any attorneys' fees, the amount of debt repaid,
and the tarnished reputation that comes from filing. That last item is
becoming less significant, however, as the stigma associated with filing
for bankruptcy continues to lessen. The benefit is the debt discharged,
which, given the leniency of Chapter 7, usually is a large percentage of
the total unsecured debt owed. The net financial gain, then, is the difference
between the benefits and the costs— a figure that is often substantial.
Indeed, Michelle White, an economist at the University of California at
San Diego, estimates that about 15 percent of U. S. households could
benefit from filing for bankruptcy under the current system.
From a policy perspective, a problem arises because lenders, who have
a hard time distinguishing between good and poor credit risks, increase
interest rates for all consumers to recoup the losses that they incur from
unpaid loans. As more and more consumers file for bankruptcy and dis-charge
their debts, interest rates for consumer credit increase to compensate
lenders for their losses. White estimates that the average borrower pays
$500 a year in extra charges to compensate lenders for those unpaid loans.
Thus, to the extent that innocent consumers are paying for the sins of the
guilty, the current system works against honest borrowers.
The proposed legislation would reduce the perverse incentives of the
current system by introducing a means test for bankruptcy. Consumers
who earn more than the median income in their state and have enough
disposable income to repay, over a five-year period, at least one-quarter
of their debts, or $6,000, whichever is greater, would have to file under
Chapter 13. The likely effect is that more people would file under Chapter
13 or refrain altogether from filing after the legislation is implemented.
The legislation, however, would not affect individuals whose incomes
are below the regional median. For that reason, the current system, with
all its problems, would remain unchanged for a great number of consumers.
Indeed, it is estimated that fewer than 15 percent of the people who would
otherwise file under Chapter 7 would be forced to file under Chapter 13
under the reform plan. A better reform would require those whose incomes
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are below the median to pay a (smaller) percentage of their debts based
on their ability to pay— but to pay something nonetheless.
The reform legislation also leaves many loopholes, such as the home-stead
exemption (albeit with tighter limits), contributions of up to 15
percent of gross income to charities, allowances of up to $1,500 per child
per year for schooling, contributions to ERISA-approved retirement plans,
and an exemption for all tax-free retirement accounts (with a $1 million
cap for IRAs), that make it easier for filers not to pay their debts. The
legislation does not put in place a minimum level of debt below which
debtors should not be able to file for bankruptcy. The establishment of
such a threshold would make the system more cost-effective. The 108th
Congress has an opportunity to correct those shortcomings.
A bankruptcy system, no matter how stringent, will always allow some
debtors to abuse it to the detriment of honest consumers. Those consumers
and creditors, however, will likely welcome a reform bill that protects
their property rights, enforces contracts more vigorously, and reduces the
incentives some people have to cheat. The 108th Congress should put
politics aside and get the job done.
Time to Privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
The Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Fed-eral
Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac), the two most
important government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), are an anomaly in
today's vibrant and innovative financial markets. GSEs are created by
congressional charter and combine characteristics of public and private
organizations. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are privately owned, publicly
traded corporations that have a congressional mandate to provide liquidity
in the secondary markets for residential mortgages. They do so mostly
by purchasing mortgages from lenders, bundling those mortgages into
mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and selling those securities to investors.
Since the early 1980s, but especially in the last few years, they have also
started to hold directly many of the mortgages they buy and to hold MBS
themselves. In the process they have become two of the most profitable
and dominant companies in the United States today.
If that success were due to their ability to provide goods and services
that consumers want under the same rules as other market participants
but at a lower price, then there would be no public policy concerns about
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Unfortunately, Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac do not operate under the same rules as other market participants.
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They enjoy government-granted benefits and subsidies that give them an
unfair advantage over their competitors, create distortions in the allocation
of capital, and pose an unnecessary risk to taxpayers.
In exchange for serving a public mission, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
enjoy an implicit government (taxpayer) subsidy to cover their liabilities.
The subsidy results from, among other things, the perception that the
government stands behind the obligations of those two companies, which
allows Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to have lower costs of capital than
their competitors. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that in
2000 the implicit subsidy provided by the government amounted to $10.6
billion, of which 37 percent went directly to their shareholders, not to
homebuyers. Other government benefits include a $2.25 billion line of
credit from the U. S. Department of the Treasury, exemption from Securities
and Exchange Commission securities registration requirements, exemption
from local and state taxes, and lower capital requirements than are imposed
on other financial institutions, which allows them to operate with much
greater leverage and earn a higher return on capital than their competitors.
While most public and congressional attention in recent months has
concentrated on the fact that the two GSEs are not subject by law to the
same disclosure and registration requirements as other publicly traded
companies, that criticism should not be the main focus of attention for at
least two reasons. First, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac already disclose
voluntarily enough information about their financial activities and condi-tion.
Furthermore, they agreed in July 2002 to file quarterly and annual
statements and proxies with the SEC (although they did not agree to
register their debt and mortgage-backed securities). Second, in this case,
what matters is not so much disclosure; after all, Fannie and Fred could
disclose that they intend to keep all profits from a very risky investment,
if that investment is successful, and to pass most losses on to taxpayers,
if it is not, and that disclosure would not make them any less risky. What
matters is whether Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have capital levels that
are adequate for the degree of risk they are taking and for the amount of
debt they have, because, if they do not, the government will most surely
step in and bail them out at a very high cost to taxpayers.
Today that does not seem to be the case, and the two GSEs have no
incentive to raise their capital levels or diminish their risk profiles (nor
do investors have an incentive to require those actions from them) because
of the government guarantee. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had a total
debt outstanding of $1.3 trillion at the end of 2001 and had guaranteed
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an additional $1.8 trillion of MBS. Capital levels stood at roughly 3.5
percent of total assets, about a third of the capital levels held by commercial
banks in the United States. In addition, they have in recent years begun
to hold directly the mortgages they purchase, which exposes them to
interest rate risk as well as credit risk, and to enter the subprime mortgage
markets, where the credit risk is much higher.
The combination of the high-risk profile of their portfolios, low capital
levels, and high levels of debt makes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
potentially very vulnerable. For that reason, and given that the secondary
market for mortgages works very well, Congress should initiate steps—
including revoking their federal charters, terminating their Treasury lines
of credit, and the presidential appointment of five members to their board
of directors— toward the full privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Conclusion
Technological change and financial innovation have radically trans-formed
the financial services marketplace in the last few years to the
benefit of financial services firms and consumers alike. More important,
the transformation will likely continue in the coming years and financial
regulations are unlikely to be able to keep up with market developments,
which could prevent an efficient and sound modernization of the U. S.
financial system. Although the process of modernization will not necessar-ily
be smooth, regulators and Congress must resist temptations to go back
to the old, rigid structure that came undone with the Gramm-Leach-Bliley
Act. Market forces, if allowed to do so, can be very effective in exerting
the discipline necessary to minimize conflicts of interest and in correcting
any shortcomings that may come along the way. Congress should continue
with the elimination of the regulatory burden to which financial services
firms are subject and let the shape of the financial marketplace be deter-mined
by buyers and sellers of financial services.
Suggested Readings
Benston, George J. '' The Community Reinvestment Act: Looking for Discrimination That Isn't There. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 354, October 6, 1999,
www. cato. org/ pubs/ pas/ pa-354es. html. Congressional Budget Office. '' Federal Subsidies and the Housing GSEs. '' 2001, ftp://
ftp. cbo. gov/ 28xx/ doc2841/ GSEs. pdf. Gunther, Jeffery W. '' Should the CRA Stand for 'Community Redundancy Act'? ''
Regulation 23, no. 3 (2000): 56– 60.
Kaufman, George G. '' FDIC Reform: Don't Put Taxpayers Back at Risk. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 432, April 16, 2002, www. cato. org/ pubs/ pas/ pa-432es. html.
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Poole, William. '' Financial Stability. '' Remarks made at the Council of State Govern-ments, Southern Legislative Conference Annual Meeting, New Orleans, August 4,
2002, www. stlouisfed. org/ news/ speeches/ 2002/ 08 04 02. html. Rodri ´guez, L. Jacobo. '' International Banking Regulation: Where's the Market Discipline
in Basel II? '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 455, October 15, 2002. Wallison, Peter J., and Bert Ely. Nationalizing Mortgage Risk. Washington: American
Enterprise Institute, 2000.
—Prepared by L. Jacobo Rodri´guez
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22. Enron, WorldCom, and Other Disasters
Congress should
clarify that the criminal penalties in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act
require proof of malign intent and personal responsibility for some illegal act,
repeal the Williams Act of 1968,
approve the deduction of one-half of dividend payments from
the earnings subject to the corporate income tax, and eliminate the limit on salaries that may be deducted from the
earnings subject to the corporate income tax.
The collapse of the Enron Corporation in late 2001 led to two broad
concerns:
There may be more '' Enrons'' out there, because many other firms
share the characteristics that led to the Enron collapse. This concern
was reenforced by the subsequent collapse of Global Crossing, World-Com,
and some other large corporations and was reflected by the
general weakness of the stock markets and the dollar, even though
most of the subsequent economic news was better than expected.
The revelation of gross accounting violations by these and other firms
and the continued weakness of the financial markets have undermined
both popular and political support for free-market policies. This effect
has already led to the increased regulation of accounting and auditing
authorized by the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, proposals for even more regu-lation,
and increased criticism of any proposal for privatization. Any
number of critics have been quick to blame many of the problems
of the modern world on the corporate culture, with a potential effect
similar to that of the muckrakers in shaping and promoting the early
progressive legislation.
While these issues deserve further study, some lessons can be drawn now.
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Enron Is a Symbol of a Broader Problem
Enron filed for bankruptcy protection on December 2, 2001, a conse-quence
of the combination of too much debt and some unusually risky
major investments. Such conditions are characteristic of firms that declare
bankruptcy and, by themselves, are not sufficient evidence of a broader
problem. The optimal number of bankruptcies is not zero because our
broader interests are served by corporations using some amount of debt
finance and taking some risks. Moreover, Enron did not collapse because
it broke the accounting rules, although it apparently broke some rules to
cover up its financial weakness. The collapse of Enron led to huge losses
to Enron investors, creditors, and employees but, by itself, had little effect
on other parties. The conditions specific to Enron will be adequately sorted
out by the market and the courts.
As expressed by one blunt-speaking investment manager, however,
'' Enron ain't the problem.... The unremarked gut issue today is that
over the past decade there was a landslide transfer of wealth from public
shareholders to corporate managers. Enron was just the tip of the iceberg
ready to happen. '' For the larger community, the important issue is not
the specific reasons why Enron collapsed but whether the general rules
affecting all corporations lead managers to use too much debt and to incur
too many risks. Another important issue raised by the Enron collapse is
why these conditions either escaped notice or were not acted upon by any
link in the audit chain.
The broader pattern of financial developments since the mid-1990s is
clearly more consistent with a description of Enron as '' the tip of the
iceberg'' than with a view that the collapse of Enron was merely a random
observation from a stable distribution of potential corporate failures. Some-thing
is seriously wrong in corporate America. General shareholders,
now a majority of Americans, have a financial interest in correcting the
conditions that led to these problems. Those of us who are concerned
about maintaining the necessary popular and political support for a market
economy have a special political stake in correcting these conditions.
Some Corrective Actions Have Been Taken
The collapse of Enron proved to be a valuable wake-up call to a number
of affected groups. The following actions have already been taken by
private organizations:
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The Business Roundtable, composed of the chief executives of about
150 large firms, urged corporations to adopt a number of voluntary
changes in corporate governance rules, including that a '' substantial
majority'' of corporate boards be independent '' both in fact and
appearance. ''
The New York Stock Exchange and the National Association of
Securities Dealers approved major additions and changes in the rules
for accounting, auditing, and corporate governance as necessary con-ditions
for listing of a corporation's stock for trade on the exchange.
The major continuing uncertainty is how the exchanges will monitor
and enforce these rules.
The International Corporate Governance Network, institutional
investors that control about $10 trillion in assets, has approved a set
of international standards for corporate governance that its members
would use their voting power to promote.
Merrill Lynch, the nation's largest retail broker, signed an agreement
with the New York State attorney general that its stock market analysts
'' will be compensated for only those activities and services intended
to benefit Merrill Lynch investor clients, '' as determined by their
superiors in the research department. This agreement was designed
to reduce any conflict of interest between the market analysis and
investment banking activities of Merrill Lynch and is expected to be
adopted by other major brokerage firms.
Standard and Poor's, one of the three major credit-rating agencies,
has developed a new concept of '' core earnings'' as a measure of
earnings from a company's primary lines of business. Compared with
earnings as defined by the generally accepted accounting principles
(GAAP), for example, the S& P measure will exclude gains and losses
from a variety of financial transactions. S& P plans to report this
measure of earnings for all publicly held U. S. companies.
Most important, the long bear market has changed the attitude of many
corporate managers and directors. In good times, no one manages the
store in firms that make an adequate rate of return, even though other
firms may have a significantly higher rate of return. Over the past two years,
however, corporate managers have been quicker to reduce employment and
close plants in response to weak demand, productivity growth has contin-ued
to be high as a consequence, and corporate boards appear to have been
more cautious about approving new investments and increased executive
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compensation. The important test is whether the costly lessons of this
period will survive a recovery of demand and another long bull market.
In the meantime, after much sound and fury, Congress approved the
Sarbanes-Oxley Act by an overwhelming margin. As is too often the case,
Congress responded to a new problem that it does not understand by
creating a new bureau, in this case a Public Company Accounting Oversight
Board to oversee public accountants. The act also authorized a 64 percent
increase in the budget of the Securities and Exchange Commission, a
strange reward for the failure of the SEC to uncover any of the major
recent accounting violations. The act also makes some minor changes in
audit rules and authorizes a substantial increase in criminal penalties for
a broader array of white-collar crimes.
The Sarbanes-Oxley Act is a result of a political demand to '' do some-thing''
about a problem of shared concern. The act was unnecessary, in
that the SEC had the authority and had already implemented most of the
prescribed actions. The act is expensive, in that the huge increase in the
SEC budget is not likely to improve accounting and auditing very much.
More disturbing, the major potential problem is an awesome threat that
senior corporate managers may be held liable for an illegal action by some
subordinate that the senior manager did not direct, condone, or even
know about. Congress has wisely refrained from applying this standard
to government managers, even though the General Accounting Office
reported in 1998 that '' significant financial systems weaknesses . . . prevent
the government from accurately reporting a large portion of its assets,
liabilities, and costs. '' On first hearing of the Enron breakup, my reaction
was that someone ought to go to jail as a consequence; that is an understand-able
but not very nuanced reaction. Unfortunately, Congress does not
seem to have thought much beyond that first reaction. At a minimum,
Congress should clarify that the criminal penalties in the Sarbanes-Oxley
Act require proof of malign intent and personal responsibility for some
illegal act.
Unfinished Business
Most important, the corrective actions taken to date will not be sufficient
to reduce the frequency and magnitude of corporate bankruptcies. Enron
and other large corporations failed by making unusually bad business
decisions, not by violating the accounting standards. A blatant violation
of accounting rules and auditing procedures clearly offends the general
public and the political community, but the losses to a corporation's
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shareholders, creditors, employees, and local communities are more
directly related to the failure of the corporation than to the measures its
managers may have taken to delay recognition of its financial weakness.
Without changes in the policy-related conditions that contribute to corpo-rate
failure, improved accounting and auditing procedures would accelerate
bankruptcies with little effect on their frequency or magnitude. Almost
all of the public and press attention, however, has focused on reducing
the accounting violations, not on those policies that contribute to busi-ness
failure.
The major lesson from the collapse of Enron and other large corporations
is that the rules of corporate governance do not adequately protect the
interests of the general shareholders against the increasingly divergent
interests of corporate managers. In other words, '' the agency problems''
that result from the separation of ownership and control posed by Berle
and Means in 1932 have not yet been fully solved and may have recently
increased. The rules of corporate governance— in effect the '' constitution''
of a corporation— are a complex combination of federal securities law,
the conditions for listing on some stock exchange or for access to credit,
the corporate regulations and court decisions of the state in which the
firm is incorporated, and company-specific rules.
Over time, moreover, there has been some drift from rules that protect
shareholders to rules that protect corporate managers. The first major
policy change in this direction was the federal Williams Act of 1968,
which substantially increased the cost for outsiders to organize a successful
tender offer and entirely removed the potential for surprise. More important
were decisions by state legislatures and state courts in the 1980s in response
to demands by corporate managers. And the superstar CEOs of the 1990s
were able to persuade their passive boards to agree to almost any rule.
Over this period, in addition, the major outside shareholder in an increasing
number of firms was some pension or mutual fund that had interests so
diversified that its management had little interest in the performance of
any one stock in the fund's portfolio; these funds very rarely use their
voting power to place a representative on a corporate board. Very few
corporate boards now include a member with a sufficient portion of
the total shares to be a credible threat to incumbent management. As a
consequence, according to the leading scholar of the market for corporate
control, '' it should come as no surprise that, as hostile takeovers declined
from 14 percent to 4 percent of all mergers, executive compensation started
a steep climb, eventually ending for some companies with bankruptcy
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and management scandal. . . . Enron is a predictable consequence of rules
that inhibit the efficient functioning of the market for corporate control. ''
The most important policy lesson from the collapse of Enron is to repeal or
reverse those laws, regulations, and court decisions that restrict successful
tender offers. The probable results would be a reduction in executive
compensation, less pressure to cook the books, an improved allocation of
capital, and an increase in the rate of return to general shareholders.
Congress should start this process by repealing the Williams Act of 1968.
Another major issue that has been broadly ignored in discussions about
the policy lessons from the Enron collapse is that the current U. S. tax
code increases the conditions that lead to bankruptcy. The corporate
earnings subject to tax, for example, exclude interest payments but not
dividends; this leads corporations to use more debt finance than would
be the case if the tax treatment of interest and dividends were the same.
The combined federal and state corporate income tax rate in the United
States is now the fourth highest among the industrial nations, so one
should expect American corporations to be relatively dependent on debt
finance. Second, for most investors, the tax rate on dividend income is
much higher than the rate on long-term capital gains; this leads corporations
to rely more on retained earnings and capital gains than on dividends as
the return to equity. And third, an obscure provision of the 1993 tax law
limits to $1 million a year the direct compensation of corporate executives
that may be deducted, unless the compensation is '' performance based. ''
These biases in the tax code also lead to several other adverse effects—
reducing the cash-flow discipline to meet dividend payments, increasing
the role of corporate managers relative to investors in the allocation of
capital, increasing the use of stock options to compensate corporate execu-tives,
and increasing the incentive to inflate the stock price.
Reducing the bias in favor of debt requires reducing the effective tax
rate on corporate earnings. Reducing the bias in favor of retained earnings
and capital gains requires deducting some amount of dividends from the
earnings subject to the corporate income tax or reducing the difference
between the personal income tax rate on dividends and long-term capital
gains. The simplest direct way to reduce both of the first two of these
tax-related biases is to allow corporations to deduct one-half of their
dividend payments from the earnings subject to the corporate income tax.
This would make the combined corporate and personal tax rate on capital
gains and dividends about the same for most investors without changing
any other feature of the corporate or personal income tax code, roughly
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Enron, WorldCom, and Other Disasters
eliminating those adverse conditions attributable to the current difference
in these rates. Over the past several years, in addition, this would have
reduced corporate income tax liability by about $60 billion a year, substan-tially
reducing the bias in favor of debt finance. Other tax revenues, of
course, would increase due to an improved allocation of capital, increased
corporate investment, and higher personal income tax revenues from
increased dividend payments. For those who would otherwise be opposed
to reducing corporate income tax liability or considering any supply-side
benefits of lower tax rates, Cato has long maintained a list of federal
corporate welfare spending, the elimination of which would more than
offset the reduction of corporate income tax liability. The most important
simple change in the federal tax code, thus, would be to authorize corpora-tions
to deduct one-half of their dividend payments from the earnings
subject to the corporate income tax. The third tax bias in favor of stock-based
compensation should be eliminated by the simple repeal of the 1993
limit on the amount of direct compensation that may be deducted. A full
elimination of the bias in favor of debt finance would require a more
comprehensive tax reform that would either eliminate the corporate income
tax or any personal taxes on capital gains and dividends.
In summary, Congress should not rest on the faded laurels of the
Sarbanes-Oxley Act. More needs to be done to reduce the conditions that
lead to corporate failure and to restore American corporations to financial
health and integrity. The policy changes recommended in this chapter
may be the most important, but other changes are likely to be suggested
by completion of Cato's project on the major policy lessons from the
collapse of Enron.
Suggested Readings
Gompers, Paul A., Joy Ishii, and Andrew Metrick. '' Corporate Governance and Equity Prices. '' NBER Working Paper no. 8449, August 2001.
Manne, Henry G. '' Bring Back the Hostile Takeover. '' Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2002. Niskanen, William A. '' A Preliminary Perspective on the Major Policy Lessons from
the Collapse of Enron. '' Cato Institute white paper, www. cato. org. Sosnoff, Martin T. '' Enron Ain't the Problem. '' Directors and Boards, Spring 2002.
—Prepared by William A. Niskanen
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23. The Federal Budget
Congress should
reduce discretionary spending from 7.1 percent of gross
domestic product to 5 percent with programterminations, priva-tization, management reforms, and transfer of programs to the
states (see proposed cuts in the Appendix to this chapter); reform Social Security by moving toward a system of individual
savings accounts; reform Medicare and Medicaid to cut costs and increase effi-ciency;
not add a prescription drug benefit to Medicare unless there is a full one-for-one cost reduction elsewhere in the
program; establish a '' sunset'' commission to automatically review all
federal programs on a rotating basis and propose major reforms and terminations;
privatize all government-operated businesses, including
Amtrak, the U. S. Postal Service, the Tennessee Valley Authority, and the four power marketing administrations;
privatize activities in all federal agencies that are commercial
in nature, such as air traffic control, marketing support for agriculture, loan and insurance programs for exporters, and
research for the energy industry; sell excess asset holdings (land, buildings, and inventories) of
federal departments such as Interior, Agriculture, and Defense; and
support aggressive management reforms in the federal bureauc-racy,
including expanding authority to fire poorly perform-ing workers.
Less Is More
The federal government will spend more than $2,100,000,000, 000
in fiscal year 2003. After taking out the government's core functions
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of national defense and justice, it will still spend more than
$1,700,000, 000,000. That amounts to roughly $16,000 for every household
in the United States. Clearly, the federal government has taken on a huge
range of spending programs beyond its basic responsibilities.
Indeed, the government is so large that the activities of hundreds of
federal agencies are beyond the knowledge and understanding of most
citizens. The government has become too large even for our representatives
in Congress to adequately oversee and control, as scandal after scandal
attests. Congress has shown itself to be incapable of running a $2 trillion
organization with an adequate degree of competence. For example, the
General Accounting Office has not been able to certify as correct the
federal government's financial statements five years in a row because
of weak accounting controls and widespread mismeasurement of assets,
liabilities, and costs.
Modernist architects told us that '' less is more'' in building design.
The same is true in government design. Americans would receive more
benefit from the federal government if its size and scope were greatly
reduced and they instead received a limited range of much better quality
services. The federal government is like a bloated conglomerate corporation
that is involved in too many different schemes for the CEO to properly
oversee. The government does too much and does few things very well.
Reforms must begin to shed all noncore functions of the federal government
so that Congress and the administration can focus on delivering high-quality
basic services, such as national security.
Short-Term Budget Outlook
The culture of spending in Washington that caused the Democrats to
lose control of Congress in 1994 has triumphed again under the Republi-cans.
The spending virus has spread throughout Congress with few mem-bers
showing immunity. The struggles of fiscal conservatives to bring
reforms to federal spending in the mid-1990s have been lost.
In 1994, there was a $203 billion deficit and red ink as far as the eye
could see. The president's FY95 and FY96 budgets included no plans to
balance federal finances. Ultimately, Congress forced the president's hand,
and a plan to end the tide of red ink was passed. Spending constraint, a
falling defense budget, and a strong economy produced the first budget
surplus in 29 years in FY98.
But fiscal responsibility did not last long, and a gaping deficit appeared
just four years later in FY02. Rapid discretionary spending growth averag-224
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The Federal Budget
ing more than 7 percent annually between FY98 and FY02 busted the
budget (Figure 23.1). The modest fiscal restraint shown in the mid-1990s
evaporated, and no lasting lessons on spending discipline were learned
by lawmakers.
One way to see how discretionary spending has ballooned is to compare
current estimates for FY03 outlays with prior estimates of FY03 outlays.
Actual FY03 outlays will be about $788 billion— that is a stunning $193
billion, or 32 percent, more than President Clinton's $595 billion proposal
for FY03 in his FY99 budget. There has been a pattern of constant upward
revisions in out-year spending in both the defense and nondefense budget
categories (Figure 23.2).
Each year, Congress and the administration up the ante on each other's
spending plans. Administrations often try to get as much spending as they
can for the next budget year but then low-ball the out-years to make the
long-term budget plan seem '' fiscally responsible. '' President Bush has
presided over huge increases in defense and nondefense discretionary
outlays in his first two years (7.4 and 11.7 percent for defense, and 8.9
and 5. 3 percent for nondefense, not including the emergency response
fund). Yet the administration's July 2002 midsession review would have
us believe that discretionary spending will be held to 3. 1 percent annual
growth from 2003 to 2007. Surely, the only real measure of fiscal responsi-Figure
23.1 Discretionary Outlays: Defense and Nondefense
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Billions
of
Dollars
Defense
Nondefense
SOURCE: Office of Management and Budget, Mid-Session Review, July 2002. Includes emergency response fund.
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Figure 23.2 Proposed Discretionary Outlays for FY03
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$290 $306 $305
$332
$308
$357
$322
$390 $379 $409
Clinton FY 1999 Budget Clinton FY 2000 Budget Clinton FY 2001 Budget Bush FY 2002 Budget Bush FY 2003 Session Review
Billions
of
Dollars
Defense
Nondefense
SOURCE: Office of Management and Budget, Mid-Session Review, July 2002, and prior budgets of the U. S.
government. FY03 midsession review data include emergency response fund.
bility is how much money is being spent right now, not promises of
restraint sometime in the future.
It should be obvious to every member of Congress that discretionary
spending growth anywhere near recent high rates is not sustainable. The
best course would be an immediate hard freeze on discretionary spending
followed by large cuts. That is necessary because of the deep fiscal hole
that entitlements will dig as health care costs rise and baby boomers
begin retiring in a few years. Ultimately, discretionary spending should
be reduced from today's 7.1 percent of gross domestic product to no more
than 5 percent (see Appendix to this chapter for recommended cuts).
Long-Term Budget Outlook
In the late 1990s, a number of factors lulled Congress into complacency
about the need for spending control. First, government revenues expanded
rapidly as the economic boom filled federal coffers with income and
capital gains tax revenues. Those inflows allowed Congress to increase
spending rapidly while still balancing the budget and appearing to be
fiscally prudent. That boom in revenues has now ended.
Second, growth of spending on the three major entitlements (Social
Security, Medicare, and Medicaid) slowed during the late 1990s. Average
annual Social Security growth slowed from 5.4 percent (1991– 96) to
4.3 percent (1996– 2001); Medicare growth slowed from 10.9 percent to
4.5 percent; and Medicaid growth slowed from 11.9 percent to 7.2 percent.
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That slowdown has come to an end. Medicaid is expected to grow at
an average annual rate of 8. 4 percent during the next decade. For Social
Security and Medicare, recent budget growth slowdowns are a brief respite
before the spending explosion expected when baby boomers begin retiring
in 2008.
All in all, Congressional Budget Office projections show that, under
current law, spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will
increase from 8.3 percent of GDP in 2002 to 15.6 percent by 2040. That
7.3 percentage point increase would be equivalent to about a $750 billion
per year tax increase today. By comparison, President Bush's tax rebates
saved taxpayers just $40 billion in 2001. Therefore, unless entitlements
are reformed, taxpayers will face an added burden rising to almost 20
times the size of the benefit received from the tax rebate in 2001.
Even if one assumed that all other government programs got no larger
relative to GDP, the three main entitlements would push federal spending
up from 20 percent of GDP today to 27 percent by 2040. State and local
governments add about 10 percentage points to that burden, for a total of
at least 37 percent of GDP by 2040. Thus without major entitlement
reforms, the United States will have a government about as big as many
European countries do today. And that outlook will be very optimistic if
discretionary spending continues growing at the irresponsible 7 percent
rate it has averaged since 1998.
If Americans want to limit the federal government to its current share
of GDP, let alone shrink it, then entitlement programs must be thoroughly
overhauled and Congress must begin shedding noncore government func-tions.
If reforms are not made, the uniqueness of the United States as a
limited-government country will be gone.
At the end of this chapter is a list of $309 billion in proposed spending
cuts. These programs should be either terminated immediately, privatized,
or transferred to state and local responsibility. It would be a major govern-ment
reform if the whole list of cuts were made. But even that annual
saving of $309 billion represents just 3 percent of GDP. Given that the
three main entitlements are projected to impose at least a 7 percentage
point cost increase on future taxpayers, these cuts must be paired with
major entitlement reforms to solve tomorrow's huge budget problems.
Reform the Entitlements
A special analysis by the CBO in July 2000 found that federal spending
on the elderly (through Social Security, Medicare, and other programs)
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will rise from 35 percent of total federal spending in 2000 to 43 percent
by 2010, under baseline assumptions. Spending on the elderly will continue
rising rapidly and surpass half the budget by about 2020.
Despite these dramatic cost increases under current law, Congress con-tinues
to consider expensive add-ons to programs for the elderly. Most
recently, lawmakers have pushed for costly Medicare prescription drug
plans. But adding new burdens for taxpayers to pay for programs for the
elderly is very unfair. The elderly have had their whole lives to save for
their own retirement, yet the massive programs already provided for them
create growing tax hurdles for young families trying to make ends meet
and save for their own retirement. Victor Fuchs of Stanford University
has found that 56 percent of the broadly measured income of the elderly
now comes from transfers from the young.
Medicare prescription drug plans will cost hundreds of billions of dollars.
In the 107th Congress, the 10-year cost of bills introduced in the Senate
ranged from $295 billion for the Hagel-Ensign bill to $594 billion for the
Graham-Miller bill. Of course, new programs usually end up costing much
more than original estimates. Expanding Medicare when programs for the
elderly are already going to blast a huge hole in future budgets is like
'' putting more people aboard the Titanic, '' as Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Tex.)
observed. A prescription drug plan should be a nonstarter unless the
package includes a full one-for-one offset in other Medicare costs.
Unfortunately, it seems difficult to have a sober, nonpartisan debate
about entitlement reforms. Even modest reform plans by Democrats, such
as Senator Breaux's Medicare plan in the late 1990s, are shot down.
Nonetheless, the budgetary and economic necessity of reform is compel-ling,
and ultimately reformers will prevail.
The key piece of the reform solution for Social Security and Medicare
is prefunding of future benefits. The only sensible way to do that is through
individual savings accounts. Prefunding will allow individuals to begin
planning now to help pay for their own retirement, so as to avoid imposing
crushing tax hikes on their children and grandchildren. (Medicare reforms
are discussed in Chapter 26; Social Security reforms are discussed in
Chapter 25.)
Reform Federal Management
A major fiscal theme of the Bush administration is reforming govern-ment
management. The administration has begun grading federal programs
and proposes to move funding away from '' ineffective'' activities. In
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addition, each federal agency is being scored with green, yellow, and red
grades for performance on various parameters. Of 130 grades given in
the baseline scores for 2001, 110 were red for '' unsatisfactory. '' By mid-2002,
the administration reported that there were still 109 red grades.
It is to be hoped that these efforts are the start of a major overhaul of
the federal bureaucracy. As noted, the federal government has failed five
years in a row to produce comprehensive financial statements that could
be certified by the General Accounting Office. The sloppiest bookkeeper
is probably the $370 billion Defense Department. The GAO has found
that the department has '' serious financial management problems that are
pervasive, complex, longstanding, and deeply rooted in virtually all busi-ness
operations throughout the department. '' The Pentagon loses track of
assets, mismanages and wastes inventory, deliberately low-balls project
costs, and makes billions of dollars of erroneous contractor payments.
New '' carrots'' should be used to get better performance from federal
agencies. For example, pay raises should be contingent on passing grades
on the president's new management scorecard. Managers in agencies that
receive red grades for '' unsatisfactory'' should not receive pay raises until
they fix problems.
In addition, new '' sticks'' need to be introduced to the bureaucracy. In
the private sector, everyone from CEOs to mailroom clerks faces firing
for bad performance. The Washington Post reported on August 18, 2002,
that 37 percent of departing CEOs of the largest U. S. companies in recent
years were fired. By contrast, data from the Office of Personnel Manage-ment
show that the federal firing rate is stunningly low at just 1 in 4,000
per year. For example, the State Department has fired only 6 employees
during the past 18 years. Yet it is hard to believe that there were not more
poor performers deserving firing in this 29,000-person agency. Indeed,
the State Department has been known for mishandling secret documents,
allowing unauthorized people to wander its hallways, and letting Russian
spies bug a meeting room down the hall from the former secretary's office.
Americans deserve better performance than that, and Congress is sup-posed
to ensure it through executive branch oversight. But the reality is
that the government's size and scope have become so vast that it is
probably impossible for Congress to adequately safeguard taxpayer funds.
The solution is to greatly cut the size of the government so it can focus
on its core mission of national security. Both Ronald Reagan and the
Republicans who stormed in to take control of Congress in 1994 sought
major program terminations. So far, that understanding of real reform has
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not sunk into the Bush administration and has been absent from Congress
for years. Lawmakers need to regain their commitment to a federal govern-ment
that works— that means cutting out all the stuff that the government
should not be doing and overhauling management of the rest.
Devolve Federal Programs to the States
Congress and the Bush administration seem to have accepted the idea
that taxing citizens to send money to Washington and then routing funds
back to state officials provides Americans with good government. That
is a triumph of hope over experience. Experience shows that when the
federal government gains more power over state functions, it results in
bureaucratic waste and new layers of regulations for states to deal with.
Greater federal fiscal power also results in unfair redistributions of
taxpayer money among the states on the basis of political pull rather than
objective need. Some states get swindled by the federal money-go-round
year after year in terms of federal taxes paid versus federal spending
received. By comparing taxes paid by residents of each state with Census
Bureau data on federal spending by state (which include everything from
defense to transportation programs), you find that states such as New
Jersey, Connecticut, and New Hampshire routinely get less than 75 cents
on every dollar sent to Washington.
The federal redistribution of citizens' money gets worse as the federal
government amasses more power over state and local functions, such as
transportation and education. Aside from the unfairness and inefficiency
involved in channeling money through Washington, it is clear that, if the
government is spending its time worrying about potholes in Pittsburgh
and SAT scores in St. Louis, then it is not devoting full attention to
national security and other crucial concerns.
We have seen the most aggressive recent federal expansion of spending
on education, which was traditionally a local function. In 1995, the House
Republicans had slated the Department of Education for closing. Under
President Clinton, education outlays rose fairly modestly from $30 billion
in FY93 to $36 billion in FY01. But under President Bush, the department's
outlays skyrocketed to $56 billion in FY03.
Much of the Department of Transportation's activities are properly state
and private-sector responsibilities. It makes no sense to collect gasoline
taxes from citizens, send them to Washington, then dole the money back
to the states— minus the costs of the 100,000-plus-person DOT bureauc-racy
and its meddlesome rules. For example, federal funds come with
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Davis-Bacon strings attached requiring union-level wages on highway
projects. Moreover, Congress uses the DOT budget to deliver pork-barrel
projects of dubious value. The federal government should end the federal
gasoline tax and cease its highway, road, and mass transit spending
functions.
In FY03, the federal government will pay out about $376 billion in
grants in aid to state and local governments for health care, transportation,
housing, education, and other programs. Congress should begin transferring
these programs back to the states and reduce federal taxes by an equal
amount. State and local governments are in a much better position to
determine whether citizens are receiving value for their tax money on
roads, schools, and other items. By federalizing such spending we are
asking the U. S. Congress to do the impossible— to accurately balance in
a neutral and selfless way the competing needs of a massive and diverse
country of 280 million individuals.
Privatize Federal Assets
The federal government owns about one-third of the land in the United
States and continues to accumulate more holdings. Yet only a fraction of
federal land is of environmental significance, and the government has
proven itself to be a poor land custodian. The process of federalizing the
nation's land should be reversed by identifying low-priority holdings to
sell back to citizens.
In addition to excess land, the federal government owns billions of
dollars worth of other excess assets, including mineral stockpiles and
buildings. For example, the Department of Defense operates large numbers
of excess supply and maintenance depots, training facilities, medical facili-ties,
research labs, and other installations that should be closed. In a
positive move, DoD has begun to dispose of 80 million square feet of
excess buildings it owns.
The federal government should also sell the operating businesses that
it owns, including the U. S. Postal Service, Amtrak, electric utilities, and
other agencies. Privatization has swept the world as governments abroad
have recognized the superiority of private competitive markets. If a private
postal system works in Germany and private air traffic control works in
Canada, those industries ought to be private here, too (for further informa-tion,
see Chapter 32).
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Establish a Federal Sunset Commission
To structure the process of terminating federal agencies, Congress should
establish a federal '' sunset'' commission. Sunsetting is a process of auto-matically
terminating government agencies and programs after a period
of time unless they are specifically reauthorized. Sunset legislation was
introduced in the 107th Congress by Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Tex.). A sunset
commission would review federal programs on a rotating basis and recom-mend
major overhauls, privatization, or elimination.
Since the 1970s, numerous state governments have adopted the sunset
process, and it is currently used in about 16 states. In the late 1970s, there
was strong bipartisan support to pass a federal sunset law introduced by
Sen. Edmund Muskie (D-Maine) that would have sunset most federal
programs every 10 years. Supporters at the time ranged from Jesse Helms
(R-N. C.) to Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.). Although it gained strong support
in the Senate, the legislative effort failed in the House.
Today, sunsetting is needed more than ever. There is no structured
method for reforming or terminating agencies when they no longer serve
a public need or when better private alternatives become available. As a
result, government agencies rarely disappear. For example, the Rural Utili-ties
Service (formerly the Rural Electrification Administration) was created
in the 1930s to bring electricity to rural homes. Virtually all American
homes have had electricity for 20 years or more, yet the agency still
survives.
A sunsetting process could help eliminate such agencies and add teeth
to the Bush administration's efforts to move funds away from poorly
performing programs. Programs that the administration grades as '' ineffec-tive''
five years in a row could be automatically reviewed by the sunset
commission and subject to termination. An alternative would be a new
congressional procedure requiring a stand-alone vote on terminating an
agency or program if the administration grades it as ineffective for five
years.
Recent corporate scandals have illustrated that poor management and
financial malfeasance can occur in any organization in society. But the
scandals also show that private markets have mechanisms to correct
excesses and rule breaking. In the private sector, poor performers are
weeded out, executives and managers are sacked, and resources are shifted
to better-run competitors. By contrast, the executive branch of government
has no mechanism for creating the renewal that all organizations need in
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our fast-changing modern society. A federal sunset law would help to
create renewal and reform in government.
Other Budget Process Reforms
Congress has done little to reform the budget rules that skew political
decisionmaking in favor of ever-larger outlays. Now that the federal budget
again has huge deficits, it is even more clear that lasting budget process
reforms are needed. There has been much debate about which particular
reforms would best restrain spending. But there is little to lose by experi-menting
with different budget control mechanisms, and any or all of the
following reforms should be pursued.
Discretionary Spending Caps with a Freeze or Cut on Outlays
Caps on discretionary spending enacted in 1990, as extended, expired
at the end of FY02. The caps, while far from perfect, did play a role in
bringing discipline to spending in the 1990s. The caps should be extended
and frozen at today's nominal total for discretionary outlays, or, even
better, outlays should be put on a downward glide path. At the same time,
rules on such items as emergency spending and advance appropriations
need to be tightened to prevent Congress from bypassing the caps.
Tax and Expenditure Limitation
The federal government should implement a cap on overall annual
budget growth, in the manner of the 26 states that have either statutory
or constitutional limits on tax revenue or spending growth. Colorado's
Taxpayer Bill of Rights is probably the most successful budget cap. It
provides an automatic tax refund to citizens when tax revenues grow faster
than the sum of inflation plus population growth. Such limits prevent
governments from overexpanding during boom years, thus making it easier
to balance the budget during recessions.
Balanced-Budget Amendment
Fiscal conservatives have long sought a balanced-budget amendment
(BBA) to the U. S. Constitution. The return to large deficits shows that,
once again, Congress cannot control its spending appetite and that further
constraints are needed. However, there is a concern that a BBA could
cause politicians to raise taxes during economic slowdowns to balance
the budget. For that reason, a BBA should be paired with a supermajority
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tax limitation amendment that makes it more difficult for Congress to
raise taxes.
Supermajority Tax Limitation Amendment
With or without a BBA in place, a supermajority requirement for tax
increases makes sense. Under a supermajority tax limitation, any tax
increase would require a two-thirds vote in the House and Senate for
passage. When the economy grows, federal tax revenues tend to grow
faster than incomes— even without legislated increases. Given this auto-matic
upward tax bias, taxpayers should be provided with the extra protec-tion
of such a limitation against any legislated tax increases. (Note that a
supermajority tax limitation amendment or the BBA would need a two-thirds
vote in Congress and ratification by three-quarters of the states to
become law.)
Reject Spending Programs as Unconstitutional
The U. S. Constitution confines federal spending authority to a few
limited areas. Article I, section 8, allows for spending mainly on basic
functions, such as establishing courts, punishing crime, and maintaining
an army and navy. The General Welfare Clause in section 8 is said to
provide a justification for much of today's $2.1 trillion in federal spending.
But much of federal spending is not for '' general welfare'' at all. Rather,
it is for the benefit of particular groups and individuals. For example,
federal export loans of more than $1 billion to Enron, and other corporate
welfare spending, are aimed at narrow interests, not the general interest.
Members of Congress take an oath to uphold the Constitution. They should
start taking that oath seriously. When a dubious program comes before
them, they should ask whether there is proper constitutional authority for
it given the limited role that is reserved for federal spending power.
Conclusion: Time for Bold Reforms
Bold fiscal reforms need to be pursued at both ends of Pennsylvania
Avenue. The administration is under the shortsighted illusion that it can
have bigger government in the selected areas it wants, such as defense,
agriculture, education, and Medicare prescription drugs, but have tight
limits on spending elsewhere. But that strategy leads to larger government
everywhere because Congress is spurred to demand higher spending for
all its favorite programs. Both Congress and the administration must
end their shortsighted jostling for more taxpayer cash. Not only is the
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government running huge deficits again, but the looming explosion in
entitlement costs demands that all aspects of the federal spending empire
be overhauled.
Appendix: Proposed Program Terminations, Privatizations, and Transfers to the States (FY02 outlays in $ millions)
Department of Agriculture
Economic Research Service $70
National Agricultural Statistics Service $118
Agricultural Research Service $1, 104
Cooperative State Research, Educ., and Extension Serv. $1,069
Agricultural Marketing Service $770
Risk Management Agency $2, 978
Farm Services Agency (subsidies, loans, insurance) $23,732
Rural Development $946
Rural Housing Service $287
Rural Business Cooperative Service $76
Rural Utilities Service $106
Foreign Agricultural Service $1,167
Food and Nutrition Services $38,003
Land Acquisition Programs $101
Forest Service, State and Private Forestry $441
Total Department of Agriculture $70,968
Department of Commerce
Economic Development Administration $493
International Trade Administration $342
Export Administration $80
Minority Business Development Agency $25
National Ocean Service $435
National Marine Fisheries Service $675
National Environmental Satellite, Data, & Info. Serv. $147
Advanced Technology Program $187
Manufacturing Extension Program $111
Other Nat. Inst. of Standards & Tech. Programs $361
National Telecommunications & Info. Admin. $112
Total Department of Commerce $2,968
Department of Defense (see Chapter 48)
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Department of Education
Total— terminate, privatize, or transfer to states all programs $47,587
Department of Energy
General Science, Research, and Development $3,240
Energy Supply $695
Fossil Energy, Research and Development $544
Energy Conservation $831
Strategic Petroleum Reserve $166
Energy Information Administration $80
Clean Coal Technology $75
Power Marketing Administration subsidies $145
FreedomCAR $150
Total Department of Energy $5,926
Department of Health and Human Services
Indian Health Service $2,874
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Serv. Admin. $2,918
Agency for Health Care Research and Quality $91
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families $18,334
Payments to States for Family Support Programs $3,558
Low-Income Home Energy Assistance $1,831
Promoting Safe and Stable Families $300
Child Care Entitlements to States $2,536
Block Grants to States for Child Care and Dev. $1,917
Social Services Block Grant $1,803
Payments to States for Foster Care and Adoption $6,098
Violent Crime Reduction Programs $25
Administration on Aging $1,137
Total Department of Health and Human Services $43,422
Department of Housing and Urban Development
Total— terminate, privatize, or transfer to states all programs $30,948
Department of the Interior
Bureau of Indian Affairs $2,217
Bureau of Reclamation $999
U. S. Geological Survey $923
Sport Fish Restoration Fund $312
Land Acquisition Programs $271
Total Department of the Interior $4,722
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Department of Justice
Juvenile Justice Programs $208
Community Oriented Policing Services $1, 057
State and Local Law Enforcement Assistance $1,722
Weed and Seed Program $41
Drug Enforcement Administration $1,537
Interagency Crime and Drug Enforcement $335
Total Department of Justice $4,900
Department of Labor
Training & Employment Services $5, 860
Welfare to Work $491
Community Service Employ. for Older Americans $469
Trade Adjustment Assistance $415
Total Department of Labor $7,235
Department of State/ International Assistance Programs
United Nations Organizations $595
United Nations Peacekeeping Activities $1,565
United Nations Arrearage Payments $826
Inter-American Organizations $126
North Atlantic Treaty Organization $42
Org. for Economic Cooperation & Dev. $49
Migration and Refugee Assistance $762
Int. Narcotics Control & Law Enforcement $350
Andean Counterdrug Initiative $409
Economic Support Fund $2,955
Foreign Military Financing Program $4,237
Total Department of State/ International Assistance Programs $11,916
Department of Transportation
Federal Railroad Administration $1,089
Federal Transit Administration $6,112
Grants-in-Aid for Airports $2,801
Essential Air Service program $53
Air Traffic Control operations $5, 792
Maritime Administration $651
Federal Highway Administration $28,729
Total Department of Transportation $45,227
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Department of the Treasury
Customs Service, Air and Marine Interdiction $198
Community Development Financial Institutions $115
Interagency Crime and Drug Enforce. Task Force $92
Total Department of the Treasury $405
Department of Veterans Affairs
V. A. Health Care Facilities Construction $398
Total Department of Veterans Affairs $398
Other Agencies and Activities
Agency for International Development $3, 390
Assistance for Eastern Europe $402
Assistance for Former Soviet Union $484
African Development Fund $57
Appalachian Regional Commission $109
Commission on Civil Rights $9
Corporation for National and Community Service $433
Corporation for Public Broadcasting $375
Corps of Engineers $4,975
Equal Employment Opportunity Commission $331
Cargo Preference Program $673
Export-Import Bank $1,044
Federal Drug Control Program $457
Federal Labor Relations Board $29
International Assistance Programs (multilateral) $2, 089
Legal Services Corporation $329
NASA $14,484
National Endowment for the Arts $113
National Endowment for the Humanities $125
National Labor Relations Board $238
Neighborhood Reinvestment Corp. $105
Overseas Private Investment Corporation $207
Peace Corps $284
Selective Service System $25
Small Business Administration $1, 439
Trade and Development Agency $55
Total Other Agencies and Activities $32,261
Total Proposed Budget Savings $308,883
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Suggested Readings
Congressional Budget Office. '' Federal Spending on the Elderly and Children. '' July 28, 2000, www. cbo. gov.
. '' A 125-Year Picture of the Federal Government's Share of the Economy, 1950 to 2075. '' July 3, 2002, www. cbo. gov.
Edwards, Chris. '' Controlling Defense Costs. '' Cato Institute Tax & Budget Bulletin no. 8, May 2002.
. '' Sunsetting to Reform and Abolish Federal Agencies. '' Cato Institute Tax & Budget Bulletin no. 6, May 2002.
Moore, Stephen, and Stephen Slivinski. '' The Return of the Living Dead: Federal Pro-grams That Survived the Republican Revolution. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no.
375, July 24, 2000. New, J. Michael. '' Limiting Government through Direct Democracy: The Case of State
Tax and Expenditure Limitations. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 420, December 13, 2001.
Penny, Tim, and Major Garrett. The Fifteen Biggest Lies in American Politics. New York: St. Martins, 1998.
—Prepared by Chris Edwards
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24. Tax Reform
Congress should
make permanent and accelerate the phase-in of tax cuts
enacted in 2001, including rate reductions, estate tax repeal, and pension liberalization;
repeal the individual and corporate alternative minimum taxes;
reduce the taxation of capital by lowering personal taxes on
capital gains and dividends, which are currently taxed at both the corporate and individual levels;
expand Roth individual retirement accounts by greatly increas-ing
contribution and income limits and repealing withdrawal restrictions to create a large all-purpose savings account avail-able
to every American; index individual income tax brackets to nominal income growth
rather than inflation to prevent hidden tax increases caused by '' real bracket creep'';
make permanent the 30 percent expensing provision for capital
investment enacted in 2002, and expand it to ultimately allow 100 percent expensing;
ensure that all tax cuts are consistent with replacing the income
tax with a low-rate consumption-based tax, such as a Hall-Rabushka flat tax, a savings-exempt income tax, or a national
retail sales tax; and generally make all federal taxes lower, flatter, and simpler.
Introduction
At the beginning of the 20th century, federal taxes accounted for just
3 percent of the nation's gross domestic product, and the tax code and
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related regulations filled just a few hundred pages. Today, federal taxes
account for more than 18 percent of GDP (after peaking at about 21
percent in 2000), and federal tax rules span 45,662 pages.
The annual extraction of $2 trillion in federal taxes from families and
businesses comes at an enormous cost. The most obvious cost is that
Americans are left with less money to meet their needs for food, clothing,
housing, and other items, and businesses are left with fewer funds to
reinvest to build the economy. Today's huge tax burden exacerbates every
problem of the federal tax code, including the bias against saving and
investment, complexity, unequal treatment, and wasteful tax avoidance
and evasion.
Reducing the overall tax burden should be the top priority for Congress
(Chapter 23 provides federal budget reduction ideas). The tax system can
be redesigned to greatly reduce its high costs. That is particularly true of
the income tax on individuals and corporations. The current high-rate
income tax is excessively complex, discourages saving and investment,
and creates large inefficiency costs that stunt economic growth. Any of
those problems alone should give Congress a strong motive for major
reforms. Taken together, they make major tax reform a necessity.
This chapter looks first at problems inherent in the current income tax
that would be greatly reduced by a low-rate consumption-based tax. Short-term
reform options are then proposed to make the tax code simpler
and less burdensome. Finally, long-term consumption-based tax reforms
are discussed.
Excessive Complexity
In 1976, president-to-be Jimmy Carter called for '' a complete overhaul
of our income tax system. I feel it's a disgrace to the human race. '' Since
Carter's attack, the number of pages of federal tax rules has more than
doubled. And now, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill calls the tax system
an '' abomination. '' Clearly, reform is long overdue.
The income tax's complexity creates a huge compliance burden, requires
high enforcement costs, causes high error rates, impedes economic deci-sionmaking,
leads to inequitable treatment of citizens, and promotes tax
avoidance and evasion.
Compliance Burden
Estimates reported by the Office of Management and Budget show that
Americans spend more than 6 billion hours each year filling out tax forms,
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keeping records, and learning tax rules. The complexity of the tax system
has spawned a huge public and private '' tax industry'' to perform adminis-trative,
planning, and enforcement activities. Those activities represent a
pure loss to the economy since they consume resources and human effort
that could otherwise be used to create useful goods and services. The
costs of complying with federal income taxes are estimated to be roughly
$200 billion per year. That huge burden falls on individuals both directly
and indirectly through the burdens imposed on businesses. For example,
a large corporate tax filing with related paperwork can run more than
10,000 pages. All Americans would gain if businesses spent less time on
such paperwork and tax avoidance strategies and more time creating
better products.
Enforcement Costs
In addition to the basic compliance costs of filing returns and tax
planning, taxpayers incur large costs responding to IRS audits, notices,
liens, levies, and seizures. The IRS assesses about 30 million penalties each
year, thus imposing more costs on taxpayers. Because of the complexity of
the tax system, many penalties are erroneous and thus a waste of effort
all around.
Errors
Tax complexity causes taxpayers, the IRS, and tax experts to make
frequent and costly errors. The IRS routinely gets up to half the answers
to taxpayer phone inquiries wrong. Money magazine's annual test of
tax experts, who are asked to compute taxes for a hypothetical family,
consistently shows wide variations in experts' answers as a result of tax
law complexity.
Economic Decisionmaking
Tax complexity impedes efficient decisionmaking by families and busi-nesses.
For example, the growing number of saving vehicles under the
income tax, including 401( k) s and individual retirement accounts (IRAs),
greatly confuses family financial planning. The wrong saving choice could
result in lower returns, less liquidity, and payment of withdrawal penalties.
Today's complex savings choices would be vastly simplified under a low-rate
consumption-based tax.
The continual change in tax rules injects great uncertainty into long-term
economic decisions, such as planning for business investment or
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retirement. The 2001 tax cut law alone had 85 major provisions and
created 441 separate changes to the tax code. Each change in the law sets
off changes in tax regulations, requests for IRS guidance, changes to tax
forms, and higher error rates. Income tax complexity also creates taxpayer
confusion about the effects of current laws, let alone future changes. With
regard to disagreements on business tax items, audits, appeals, and litigation
with the IRS can drag on for years with no clear answer as to the correct
tax payment amount.
Inequity and Unfairness
The many complex features of the income tax create unfairness because
similar families end up paying different tax amounts. As Congress has
larded up the income tax code with special preferences, inequities have
increased. Tax incentives for education, home ownership, and savings
plans reward some families but not others. Polls have found that most
Americans believe that the income tax is '' unfair. '' No doubt such feelings
have been fueled by the many special preferences carved into the tax
code. A consumption-based tax would be simpler and fairer.
Avoidance and Evasion
Tax complexity leads to noncompliance with the tax system caused by
both confusion and a desire to evade taxes. Complexity fosters multiple
interpretations of the law and aggressive tax planning. Taxpayers take
risks on their tax returns in the hope that complexity will hide their
strategies from the IRS. The economy would be better off if tax rules
were simple and transparent so that businesses could spend their energies
on their operations, not playing cat-and-mouse games with the IRS.
Bias against Saving
The income tax system distorts the crucial economic tradeoff between
consumption and saving. Saving is a primary source of economic growth
because it provides businesses with the investment funds they need to
expand and modernize the nation's capital stock. It is widely recognized
that the income tax system is biased against saving because the returns
to saving can face high tax rates, whereas current consumption does not.
That income tax bias has contributed to much of the interest in funda-mental
tax reform in recent years. Nearly all recent tax reform proposals
would adopt a consumption base in order to eliminate saving and invest-ment
disincentives and to boost capital formation and growth. Also, a
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consumption tax base would increase economic efficiency by equalizing
the treatment of all types of capital income. By contrast, the current tax
system distorts corporate financing. For example, interest payments are
deductible at the corporate level, but dividend payments are not. Many
experts believe that this disparate treatment has led American companies
to take on too much debt relative to equity. That causes greater numbers
of bankruptcies and exacerbates economic instability.
At the individual level, removing tax barriers to all types of saving
would allow families to gain greater financial security. With larger pools
of savings, families could better plan for their future and guard against
unforeseen financial problems. Consumption-based tax plans would treat
personal saving under rules similar to those that govern either regular
IRAs or Roth IRAs. In the first case, saving is initially deducted but
withdrawals are later taxed. In the second case, no deduction is given for
saving initially but qualified withdrawals are not taxed. The Hall-Rabushka
flat tax adopts savings treatment similar to that of the Roth IRA by taxing
initial wage earnings but exempting dividends, interest, and capital gains
from taxation at the individual level. If made universal for all types of
savings and for all families, that treatment would greatly increase saving
incentives and remove large paperwork headaches that taxpayers face
under the current plethora of different savings vehicles, each with unique
rules and limitations.
Economic Inefficiency
A $1 million government spending program does not cost taxpayers
just $1 million. It costs them much more. That is because taxes cause
large distortions in the efficient functioning of the market economy by
changing prices and altering behavior. Those distortions are called '' dead-weight
losses. '' For example, consider a woman with a wage job who is
considering launching a small business on the side to earn more income.
If the government hikes marginal tax rates and dissuades her from those
entrepreneurial plans, the nation loses the additional production and the
innovative ideas that she could have added to the economy.
High marginal tax rates greatly increase the economic damage or dead-weight
losses of income taxes. That is because deadweight losses increase
more than proportionally to increases in tax rates. In particular, deadweight
losses rise by the square of the increased tax wedge between pre-and
posttax income for income taxes. For example, a doubling of the tax
wedge causes deadweight losses to quadruple. As a consequence, a flatter
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tax rate structure would be much more efficient than today's highly gradua-ted
tax rate structure.
Economic research indicates that deadweight losses represent at least
25 percent of each additional dollar of federal income tax revenue. Indeed,
the Office of Management and Budget incorporates a 25 percent dead-weight
loss measure into federal cost/ benefit analyses. That means that
for new government spending projects to even begin making economic
sense, they must generate benefits at least 25 percent greater than their
explicit tax costs because of the extra 25 cents on the dollar damage
created by raising taxes.
Conversely, tax rate reductions benefit taxpayers by substantially more
than the amount by which taxpayers' explicit liabilities are reduced. For
example, an estimate of President Bush's original tax cut plan by Harvard
professors Martin Feldstein and Daniel Feenberg in 2001 found that it
would reduce deadweight losses by 38 percent of the value of the $1.6
trillion tax reduction, or about $600 billion over 10 years.
Tax rate cuts reduce deadweight losses by increasing rewards for work,
savings, entrepreneurial activity, and business investment and by shifting
economic activity into more productive areas. For example, a series of
statistical studies by tax economists Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin,
Mark Rider, and Harvey Rosen has found that personal income tax rate
cuts, such as occurred in 1986, have a substantial positive effect on small
business hiring, investment, and growth.
Short-Term Reforms
In 2001, Congress enacted the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Recon-ciliation
Act based on the outline of President Bush's tax reduction plan.
The 2001 tax law took a number of very positive steps, including reducing
individual statutory tax rates, liberalizing the tax rules on retirement sav-ings,
and repealing the estate tax. However, all those provisions are set
to expire on December 31, 2010, which would impose a massive tax hike
on Americans at that time. The tax law also included absurdly extended
phase-in periods for tax reductions such that taxpayers will experience
the benefits of some tax cuts for just a year or two before having them
snatched away at the end of 2010. The first priority of the 108th Congress
should be to fix the severe shortcomings of the 2001 tax law.
Make 2001 Tax Cuts Permanent and Effective Immediately
Under the 2001 tax law, individual tax rate cuts are not fully phased
in until 2006, the estate tax is fully repealed for only one year in 2010, and
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IRA liberalization is not fully phased in until 2008. Most other provisions in
the law also have delayed effective dates. Congress should make all
provisions in the 2001 tax law effective immediately. After all, the law's
provisions help to solve long-standing problems with the tax code and
help to spur economic growth. It makes sense to provide taxpayers with
those promised future benefits today.
Expand and Make Permanent New Capital Expensing Rules
In 2002, Congress enacted a tax cut designed to stimulate the economy
by allowing companies a 30 percent first-year tax write-off ('' expensing'')
for investment in qualified business equipment. That provision is effective
for only three years. Yet expensing has long been proposed as a permanent
tax code fix to spur investment and long-term economic growth. The
expensing provision should be made permanent and ultimately expanded
to allow 100 percent expensing. Full expensing would be the treatment
received by capital investment under most major tax reform plans, such
as the Hall-Rabushka (or Dick Armey) flat tax and the USA tax plan of
Rep. Phil English (R-Pa.). Such treatment would not only boost economic
growth; it would also greatly simplify the tax code by ridding it of all the
complex depreciation rules.
Greatly Liberalize the Roth IRA
Individual-level taxes on capital income need to be reduced all around.
One promising approach to that end would be to liberalize the Roth IRA.
The Roth IRA, created in 1997, has become a popular way to save; 12
million U. S. households now hold accounts, according to the Investment
Company Institute. Contributions to Roth IRAs are from after-tax earnings,
but investment returns and qualified withdrawals are tax-free. But Roth
IRAs have strict limitations that should be greatly liberalized so that
families can build up larger pools of savings to achieve more financial
security.
Roth IRAs have income limits, low caps on annual contributions, and
restrictions on withdrawals before retirement age. Under the 2001 Bush
tax cut, the annual contribution limit for Roth IRAs rises from $3,000 in
2002 to $5,000 by 2008. That limit should be raised to at least $20, 000
immediately. Another key problem is that because a 10 percent penalty
is placed on most withdrawals prior to retirement, the liquidity of these
savings vehicles is greatly reduced. The result is that individuals save
much less because they fear that they may need their money before the
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government permits them penalty-free access. Thus, Roth IRAs should
be liberalized and turned into universal-purpose savings accounts allowing
withdrawals for any reason, not just for purposes specified by the
government.
As currently designed, Roth IRAs are aimed at encouraging retirement
savings. But tax code barriers to all types of savings, not just retirement
savings, should be removed. Not only would that stimulate economic
growth, it would encourage individuals to build up larger financial pools
that could be used for any family contingency, such as medical expenses,
home buying, unemployment, college, or unexpected crises. All individual
savings are beneficial to long-term economic growth, and all savings
contribute to individual financial stability.
Congress should create a universal savings account by removing income
limits, contribution limits, and withdrawal restrictions on Roth IRAs. There
would be no tax on dividends, interest, and capital gains earned within
these new accounts because initial contributions would come from after-tax
earnings. The revenue loss to the government in the short term would
be small. Such a plan would greatly simplify the individual tax code by
steering much of future individual savings into these simple accounts, and
away from all the current complex and special-purpose savings plans.
Fix Real Bracket Creep
During economic expansions, individual taxes are steadily and stealthily
increased by the phenomenon of '' real bracket creep. '' Much of the
individual income tax code is indexed for inflation but not for real economic
growth. As a consequence, increasing shares of Americans' incomes are
moved into higher tax brackets each year as the economy expands. That
occurs because of the steeply graduated rate structure of the income tax
and provisions such as the standard deduction that are also not indexed
for real economic growth.
A substantial share of the benefits from the 2001 tax cut may be eaten
away by real bracket creep. Congress should index individual income tax
brackets and other tax code provisions to nominal income growth, rather
than inflation, to prevent real bracket creep. Implementing a low flat-rate
tax would also eliminate the problem.
Reduce Taxation of Dividends and Capital Gains
Congress should follow a general policy of steadily reducing the exces-sive
taxation of capital income. Top tax cut priorities include reducing
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the corporate income tax rate and reducing individual taxes on dividends
and capital gains. The United States is out of step with many of its major
trading partners who have reduced capital income taxation in recent years.
In fact, the United States has the fourth highest corporate income tax rate
among the 30 major nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The average rate across the 30 OECD countries fell
from 37.6 percent in 1996 to 31.4 percent in 2002 (including national and
subnational taxes).
Regarding dividends, the United States has the fourth highest corporate
plus individual tax burden on earnings distributed as dividends among
OECDcountries. About two-thirds of OECDcountries— but not the United
States— partially or fully relieve the double taxation of dividends, typically
by providing shareholders with a tax reduction on dividends received.
The United States also lags behind on capital gains taxation. For exam-ple,
Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong,
Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, and Switzerland all have
a tax rate of zero on individual capital gains (holding periods or other
conditions apply in some cases).
Enact Simplification Measures
Congress has taken a few very small steps to deal with the tax complexity
problem. In April 2001, the Joint Committee on Taxation released a 1,300-
page report on the topic. The study cataloged the excessive complexity
of federal taxes and proposed more than 100 specific reforms. There is
no reason why Congress should not move forward with these reforms,
most of which are not controversial.
Congress should also move forward on tax reforms for international
businesses. Many good reforms were proposed by House Ways and Means
Committee chairman Bill Thomas (R-Calif.) in the 107th Congress. The
U. S. tax rules on multinational corporations are perhaps the most complex
in the world. The complexity of the rules causes U. S. companies to spend
far too much time and energy on tax planning activities rather than more
productive pursuits. Glenn Hubbard, chairman of the Council of Economic
Advisers, and James Hines have in the past concluded that '' the present
U. S. system of taxing multinationals' income may be raising little U. S.
tax revenue, while stimulating a host of tax-motivated financial transac-tions.
'' It is time to move ahead on both business and individual tax
simplification reforms.
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Reform U. S. International Business Taxation
Not only are U. S. tax rules on international businesses complex, many
experts agree that they put U. S.-based companies at a competitive disadvan-tage
in world markets. Consumption-based taxes, including the flat tax,
would eliminate most international tax rules because they are '' territorial''
taxes, which do not tax the foreign operations of U. S. businesses. About
half of OECD countries have territorial business tax systems. Moving to
a territorial system would allow U. S. companies to compete on a level
playing field in foreign markets with corporations headquartered in
other countries.
Repeal the Alternative Minimum Tax
The corporate and individual alternative minimum taxes (AMTs) are
complex income tax systems that operate parallel to the ordinary income
tax systems. There is broad agreement that the ill-conceived AMTs should
be repealed. For example, AMT repeal has been recommended by the
Joint Committee on Taxation and the American Bar Association. Former
IRS national taxpayer advocate Val Oveson called the AMT '' absolutely,
asininely stupid'' in a speech in 2000. Under JCT projections, 36 million
taxpayers will be subject to the '' asinine'' individual AMT by 2010 unless
Congress acts to repeal it.
Reform the Tax Policy Process
When Congress is considering raising or cutting taxes, expected changes
in revenues are officially estimated by the JCT. The Treasury's Office of
Tax Analysis performs a similar function for the administration. Those
estimates are very important in policy debates about the desirability of
tax changes, yet they are often erroneous and incomplete. Unfortunately,
tax reforms that are desirable because they would raise Americans' incomes
are often held up because of faulty estimates of the federal budgetary
impact and because broad economic benefits are not taken into account.
The current tax policy process in Washington stacks the deck against pro-growth
tax reforms.
Revenue estimates by the JCT and OTA generally assume that tax
changes will not affect the overall economy; thus they are termed '' static''
estimates. Yet major reductions in marginal tax rates, for example, would
substantially boost economic activity and individual incomes, thus generat-ing
an offsetting increase in federal revenues. Revenue estimates that
include such economic feedbacks are called '' dynamic'' estimates. Con-250
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gress should introduce procedures to present dynamic revenue estimates
alongside current static estimates for major tax bills.
Other aspects of the tax policy process also need reform. The current
process is closed to public scrutiny and is resistant to change. Information
provided to policymakers is based on particular economic and tax theories
that should be more open to peer review. In addition, the presentation
of tax information to policymakers and the general public needs to be
overhauled. For example, politically important presentations on the '' distri-butional''
effects of proposed tax changes (effects presented by income
groups) can be very misleading. Congress should reexamine the way such
information on tax changes is presented to ensure fairness and accuracy.
Long-Term Reforms
Raising the bulk of federal revenue from broad-based individual and
corporate income taxes was a historic mistake. It has led to excessive
complexity, a powerful bias against saving and investment, economic
inefficiency, and a reduction in U. S. economic growth. To correct those
problems, nearly all major tax reform proposals of recent years would
replace the individual and corporate income taxes with a low-rate
consumption-based tax.
Current System Has Complex and Damaging Tax Base
The key economic differences between income and consumption-based
taxes regard the treatment of saving and investment. The federal income
tax is loosely based on a very broad measure of income called Haig-Simons
income. That basis results in heavy taxation of saving and investment. For
example, a full Haig-Simons-based tax would tax all capital gains accrued
on paper every year, whether or not those gains were actually received.
It would also tax items that individuals would not normally think of as
income, such as the implicit rent received from owning one's home and
the buildup of wealth in life insurance policies.
Many tax policy experts traditionally supported taxing an expansive
Haig-Simons income base. Yet there is no good economic argument for
such a tax base. For example, the accrual taxation of capital gains would
result in double taxation of investment. (A rise in an asset's projected
future return would lead to an immediate taxable capital gain. Then, the
return would be taxed again as the asset generated revenues in future
years.) The attraction of a Haig-Simons income tax base seems to stem
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mainly from the egalitarian impulse to impose a heavy load of taxation
on those with high incomes.
Taxing a broad income base is very impractical and complex. As a
result, the current income tax has fallen back on an array of ad hoc
and inconsistent rules for defining individual and business income. Some
income is exempt from tax, some income is taxed once, and other income
is taxed multiple times. There is no consistent standard under present tax
policy for what constitutes income or when it should be taxed.
In addition, inflation wreaks havoc with broad-based income taxes,
making items such as capital gains and depreciation very difficult to
measure properly. The many jury-rigged fixes under the income tax create
decisionmaking difficulties and paperwork burdens for individuals and
businesses. For example, the current income tax treats capital gains on a
realization basis, which adds a great deal of planning difficulties for
investors who must try to optimally time asset sales and offset gains
with losses.
There is a growing realization among economists, tax experts, and
taxpayers that the current income-based system cannot be made simple.
What is needed is a fundamental overhaul that would create a simple and
transparent consumption-based tax, in place of the complex and uncompeti-tive
federal income tax.
Reforming Taxation with a Low-Rate Consumption-Based Tax
Congress should begin replacing the individual and corporate income
taxes with a low-rate consumption-based tax. That goal can be reached
gradually by following the short-term reforms listed above, or it can be
implemented by an immediate replacement combined with various transi-tion
rules. Leading consumption-based tax proposals have included the
Hall-Rabushka flat tax, a national retail sales tax, and variants of a con-sumed-
income tax. The flat tax was originally proposed by Robert Hall
and Alvin Rabushka of the Hoover Institution and was most recently
championed by former house majority leader Dick Armey. Leading retail
sales tax proposals have included a plan by Rep. Billy Tauzin (R-La.) to
replace income taxes and the estate tax with a 15 percent retail sales tax;
Rep. John Linder's (R-Ga.) plan would replace those taxes plus federal
payroll taxes with a 23 percent sales tax called the '' FairTax. '' Rep. Phil
English (R-Pa.) has introduced a plan based on the consumed-income
tax approach.
Those plans are similar in economic thrust as they all would reduce
the taxation of saving and investment. They would, however, differ in
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Table 24.1 Advantages of a Low-Rate Consumption-Based Tax
Economic and simplification advantages of a Hall-Rabushka-style tax compared with the current income tax
Advantages for Individuals
Low tax rate: Increased incentives for working, saving, and entrepreneurial activities.
With lower rates, more than 20 million small businesses and the self-employed who file
under the personal tax system would have added incentives to hire and invest.
Personal savings: No taxation of interest, dividends, and capital gains. That would
greatly enhance financial privacy and increase the ability and incentive for families to
save for their own retirement and other future expenses. No need for half a billion 1099s
and other IRS forms.
Capital gains: Eliminating capital gains taxation would get rid of multiple tax rates and
holding periods and complexities such as the timing of realizations, matching gains with
losses, and calculating basis. Great boon for entrepreneurial growth companies, which
rely on investors who earn returns through capital gains.
Interest: Interest income and interest expense complications and distortions eliminated,
such as the municipal bond preference.
Savings vehicles: Current plethora of savings vehicles, including 401( k) s and IRAs,
would be phased out as tax hurdles were removed for all types of savings. Families
would save for reasons of their own choosing, would withdraw funds without penalties,
and would not have to sort through pages of rules to make savings decisions. Saving would
become individually based instead of being tied to the risks of company pension plans.
Social engineering: Fairness would be increased as items that specially favor some
taxpayers were eliminated, such as the five different current education tax preferences
related to savings and interest.
Advantages for Businesses
Low tax rate: Increased incentives for all businesses to hire and invest. Greater attraction
of foreign investment would help build the U. S. economy. Reduced efforts put into
wasteful tax avoidance, evasion, compliance, and enforcement activities.
Capital income: All types of capital income would receive the same neutral treatment
and be taxed only once. Distortions that change business and financial structure, such
as the current corporate bias in favor of debt financing, would be eliminated.
(continued)
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Table 24.1 (continued)
Depreciation: Complex and distortionary tax rules for capital purchases eliminated.
Business investment would receive a huge boost, which would spur long-term eco-nomic
growth.
Capitalization issues: Aside from depreciation, other tax rules that relate to the timing
of income and deductions would be eliminated, such as the complex rules for busi-ness
inventory.
Capital gains: Elimination of corporate capital gains would reduce complexities of
business reorganizations and investment activities.
Inflation: Distortions caused by inflation under the income tax for such items as for
depreciation, inventory, and capital gains would be eliminated under a consumption-based
tax.
International tax rules: Businesses would be taxed on a territorial basis under a consump-tion-
based tax, thus eliminating many complex tax provisions, such as the foreign tax
credit.
Business structure: Uniform business taxation would replace C and S corporations,
LLCs, sole proprietorships, and partnerships. Business and financial planning would be
greatly simplified, as would be the tax treatment of mergers and acquisitions.
their mechanics and pose trade-offs with regard to administration, simplic-ity,
and civil liberties. Nonetheless, they would all represent major improve-ments
on the current federal income tax mess.
Table 24.1 summarizes the dramatic economic and simplification gains
that could be achieved under a structure like the Hall-Rabushka flat tax,
which would incorporate simple and low-rate business and individual-level
taxes. Similar gains may be achieved under other low-rate consump-tion-
based tax plans.
Conclusion
Consumption-based tax proposals have gained widespread support
because they would reduce the tax burden on saving and investment and
spur greater economic growth. In addition, replacing the current income
tax with a consumption-based tax promises vast simplification of the
complicated federal tax code.
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Given the nine-decade reign of the income tax, it is surprising what a
weak case there is for it compared with a consumption-based tax. In
congressional testimony a few years ago, the current chairman of the
Council of Economic Advisers, Glenn Hubbard, called the income tax
'' fundamentally flawed'' because of its inefficiency, complexity, and
unfairness. It is time to replace the flawed income tax with a lower, flatter,
simpler alternative.
As discussed, there are many good short-term reforms that Congress
should pursue, such as reducing overall marginal tax rates, eliminating
the AMT, and cutting taxes on dividends and capital gains. All changes
should aim for the ultimate goal of enacting a low-rate consumption-based
system in place of the fundamentally flawed income tax.
Suggested Readings
Adams, Charles. Those Dirty Rotten Taxes: The Tax Revolts That Built America. New York: Free Press, 1998.
Burton, David. '' Reforming the Federal Tax Policy Process. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 463, December 17, 2002.
Burton, David, and Dan R. Mastromarco. '' Emancipating America from the Income Tax: How a National Sales Tax Would Work. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no.
272, April 15, 1997. Edwards, Chris. '' Economic Benefits of Personal Income Tax Rate Reductions. '' U. S.
Congress, Joint Economic Committee, April 2001. . '' New Data Show U. S. Has Fourth Highest Corporate Tax Rate. '' Cato Institute
Tax & Budget Bulletin no. 3, April 2002. . '' Simplifying Federal Taxes: The Advantages of Consumption-Based Taxa-tion.
'' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 416, October 17, 2001. . '' Top Ten Civil Liberties Abuses of the Income Tax. '' Cato Institute Tax &
Budget Bulletin no. 4, April 2002. Hall, Robert, and Alvin Rabushka. The Flat Tax. 2d ed. Stanford: Hoover Institution
Press, 1995. McCaffery, Edward. '' Grave Robbers: The Case against the Death Tax. '' Cato Institute
Policy Analysis no. 353, October 4, 1999. Metcalf, Gilbert. '' The National Sales Tax: Who Bears the Burden? '' Cato Institute
Policy Analysis no. 289, December 8, 1997. Moore, Stephen, and John Silvia. '' The ABCs of the Capital Gains Tax. '' Cato Institute
Policy Analysis no. 242, October 4, 1995.
—Prepared by Chris Edwards
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25. Social Security
Congress should allow young workers to redirect their payroll taxes to individually owned, privately invested retirement
accounts.
The debate over Social Security reform was poorly served by the 2002
congressional elections. With a declining stock market as a backdrop for
dueling attack ads, too many candidates became embroiled in a pointless
debate over the meaning of the word '' privatization. '' The public was left
without a clear presentation of the problems facing Social Security or of
the pros and cons of various solutions. But as campaigning gives way to
governing, Congress must recognize that Social Security is facing serious
problems and must be reformed.
Why Reform Social Security?
There are five main reasons to reform Social Security.
Keeping Social Security Solvent
Social Security is going bankrupt. The federal government's largest
spending program, accounting for nearly 22 percent of all federal spending,
faces irresistible demographic and fiscal pressures that threaten the future
retirement security of today's young workers. According to the 2001 report
of the Social Security system's Board of Trustees, in 2017, just 14 years
from now, the Social Security system will begin to run a deficit (Figure
25.1) That is, it will begin to spend more on benefits than it brings
in through taxes. Anyone who has ever run a business— or balanced a
checkbook— understands that when you are spending more than you are
bringing in, something has to give: you need to start either earning more
money or spending less to keep things balanced. For Social Security, that
means either higher taxes or lower benefits.
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Figure 25.1 Social Security Cost and Income
20
17.5
15
12.5
10
7.5
Income/
Cost
as
Percentage
of
Taxable
Payroll
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2080 2075
Cost
Income
Payroll tax deficits
2002: 10.8 percent 1970:
8.1
2025: 16 percent
Payroll tax surpluses
2080: 20.1 percent
In theory, Social Security is supposed to continue paying benefits after
2017 by drawing on the Social Security Trust Fund. The trust fund is
supposed to provide enough money to guarantee benefits until 2041, when
it will be exhausted. But one of Washington's dirty little secrets is that
there really is no trust fund. The government spent that money long ago
to finance general government spending and hide the true size of the
federal budget deficit. The trust fund now consists only of IOUs— promises
that at some time in the future the government will replace that money,
which can only be done by collecting more taxes or issuing even more debt.
Even if Congress can find a way to redeem the bonds, the trust fund
surplus will be completely exhausted by 2041. At that point, Social Security
will have to rely solely on revenue from the payroll tax. But that revenue
will not be sufficient to pay all promised benefits.
There are limited options available. Former president Bill Clinton
pointed out the choices: (a) raise taxes, (b) cut benefits, or (c) get a higher
rate of return through investment in real capital assets. Henry Aaron
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of the Brookings Institution, a noted opponent of privatization, agrees.
'' Increased funding to raise pension reserves is possible only with some
combination of additional tax revenues, reduced benefits, or increased
investment returns from investing in higher yielding assets, '' he told
Congress in 1999.
The tax increases and benefit cuts would have to be large. To maintain
benefits after the system starts running a deficit in 2017, the government
must acquire new funds equivalent to $103 per worker. By 2030, the
additional tax burden increases to $1,543 per worker, and it continues to
rise thereafter. Functionally, that would mean an increase in payroll taxes
of roughly 50 percent, or an equivalent increase in income or other taxes.
If both individual accounts and tax increases are off the table, then, by
law, benefits will have to be cut. Current estimates suggest that benefits
may have to be reduced by as much as a third. That would have a
devastating effect on those Americans most dependent on Social Security
for retirement income. Studies indicate that as many as 20 percent of
American seniors receive nearly all their retirement income from Social
Security.
It is important to realize that doing nothing is the same as endorsing
benefit cuts. Since, by law, once Social Security no longer has enough
revenue to pay benefits, without reform, benefit cuts are inevitable. In this
case, not to act is to act.
A Better Deal for Young Workers
Even if Social Security did somehow manage to pay all its promised
benefits, the taxes paid by today's young workers are already so high that
promised benefits would be a bad deal in return for those taxes. Those
benefits represent a low, below-market rate of return, or effective interest
rate, on the taxes workers and their employers have to pay into the system
throughout their careers (Table 25.1). Studies show that investing those
tax funds instead in private savings and insurance would likely yield three
or more times the benefits Social Security promises to today's young
workers. In fact, retiring workers will receive returns from Social Security
that are below those of risk-free government bonds.
Look at it another way: A single worker born in 1965, paying the
maximum in Social Security taxes, and retiring in 2030 would have to
live to over age 90 just to get back what he or she had paid into the
system (Table 25.2). This means that entire generations will lose money
under the current Social Security system.
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Table 25.1 Real Rates of Return Falling for All Retirees
(assumes no change in law, retirement at age 65)
Single-Earner
Single Male Single Female Couple Two-Earner
Birth (medium (medium (medium Couple
Year wages) wages) wages) (medium/ low wages)
1970 1.13 1.59 3.42 2.24
1980 0.91 1.36 3.31 2.08
1990 0.88 1.29 3.14 1.97
2000 0.86 1.25 3.02 1.88
SOURCE: Social Security Office of the Actuary calculations, May 27, 2001.
Table 25.2 What Age Must You Reach to Get Back What You've Paid In?
Total Life Expectancy for Age an Average Earner Gets
Individual Reaching Back Taxes Paid into the
Age 65 Year of Retirement Portion of
Birth Social Security Male Female
1875 65.2 77.7 79.7
1895 66.1 78.2 82.4
1915 67.8 79.7 83.9
1936 81.8 81.3 84.6
1945 85.2 81.9 85
1955 89.7 82.5 85.6
1965 91.9 83 86.1
SOURCE: Congressional Research Service, '' Social Security: The Relationship of Taxes and Benefits for Past,
Present, and Future Retirees, '' June 22, 2001; updated via telephone conversation with author. Under the
intermediate assumptions of the 2001 Trustees Report and taking into account benefit increases and continued
accrual of interest after retirement but not the taxation of benefits. The retirees are assumed to begin work at
age 22 and retire in January of the year in which they turn 65. Assumes contributions earn interest equal to
the long-term government bond rate.
Moreover, this may understate the problem since it assumes that Social
Security will continue to pay promised benefits without increased taxes.
But, as we have seen above, that is impossible.
Savings and Economic Growth
Social Security operates on a pay-as-you-go basis; almost all of the
funds coming in are immediately paid out to current beneficiaries. This
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system displaces private, fully funded alternatives under which the funds
coming in would be saved and invested for the future benefits of today's
workers. The result is a large net loss of national savings, which reduces
capital investment, wages, national income, and economic growth. More-over,
by increasing the cost of hiring workers, the payroll tax substantially
reduces wages, employment, and economic growth as well.
Shifting to a system of individual accounts, with hundreds of billions
of dollars invested in private capital markets, could produce a large net
increase in national savings, depending on how the government financed
the transition. This would increase investment, productivity, wages, and
jobs. Replacing the payroll tax with private retirement contributions would
also improve economic growth, because the required contributions would
be lower and those contributions would be seen as part of a worker's
direct compensation, stimulating more employment and output.
Helping the Poor
Low-income workers would be among the biggest winners under a
private system. The higher returns and benefits of a system that relies on
private investment would be most important to low-income families, as
they most need the extra funds. The funds saved in the individual retirement
accounts, which could be left to the children of the poor, would also
greatly help families break out of the cycle of poverty. Similarly, the
improved economic growth, higher wages, and increased jobs that would
result from reforming Social Security would be most important to the
poor. Moreover, if we continue on our current course, low-income workers
will be hurt the most by the higher taxes or reduced benefits that will be
necessary. Averting a financial crisis and its inevitable results would
consequently be most important to low-income workers.
In addition, with average-and low-wage workers accumulating large
sums in their own investment accounts, the distribution of wealth through-out
society would become far broader than it is today. That would occur,
not through the redistribution of existing wealth, but through the creation
of new wealth, far more equally held. Because Social Security investment
accounts would make every worker a stockowner, the old, senseless divi-sion
between labor and capital would be eroded. Every laborer would
become a capitalist. The socialist dream of the nation's workers owning
its businesses and industries would be effectively achieved. At the same
time, as the nation's workers became capitalists, support for free-market,
pro-growth economic policies would increase in all sectors of society.
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That social effect is one of the least cited but most important reasons for
giving workers more control over their retirement savings.
Ownership and Control
After all the economic analysis, however, perhaps the single most
important reason for privatizing Social Security is that it would give
American workers true ownership of and control over their retirement
benefits.
Many Americans believe that Social Security is an earned right. That
is, because they have paid Social Security taxes they are entitled to receive
Social Security benefits. The government encourages this belief by refer-ring
to Social Security taxes as '' contributions, '' as in the Federal Insurance
Contributions Act. However, the U. S. Supreme Court has ruled, in Flem-ming
v. Nestor, that workers have no legally binding contractual or property
right to their Social Security benefits, and those benefits can be changed,
cut, or even taken away at any time.
As the Court stated, '' To engraft upon Social Security a concept of
'accrued property rights' would deprive it of the flexibility and boldness
in adjustment to ever changing conditions which it demands. '' That deci-sion
built on a previous case, Helvering v. Davis, in which the Court had
ruled that Social Security is not a contributory insurance program, stating
that '' the proceeds of both the employer and employee taxes are to be
paid into the Treasury like any other internal revenue generally, and are
not earmarked in any way. ''
In effect, Social Security turns older Americans into supplicants, depen-dent
on the political process for their retirement benefits. If they work
hard, play by the rules, and pay Social Security taxes their entire lives,
they earn the privilege of going hat in hand to the government and hoping
that politicians decide to give them some money for retirement.
In contrast, under a system of individual accounts, workers would have
full property rights in their private accounts. They would own their accounts
and the money in them the same way they own their individual retirement
accounts (IRAs) or 401( k) plans. Their retirement benefits would not
depend on the whims of politicians.
The President's Commission
In May 2001, President Bush appointed former senator Daniel Patrick
Moynihan and AOL/ Time Warner executive Richard Parsons to co-chair
the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security. The 16-member
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bipartisan commission was charged with devising Social Security reform
proposals according to the following principles: modernization must not
change Social Security benefits for retirees or near retirees; the entire
Social Security surplus must be dedicated to Social Security only; Social
Security payroll taxes must not be increased; the government must not
invest Social Security funds in the stock market; modernization must
preserve Social Security's disability and survivors' components; and mod-ernization
must include individually controlled, voluntary personal retire-ment
accounts, which will augment the Social Security safety net.
Three members of the commission, Lea Abdnor, Sam Beard, and former
representative Tim Penny (D-Minn.), have worked with Cato's Project on
Social Security Choice. Cato Social Security analyst Andrew Biggs served
as a staff member to the commission.
In August 2001 the commission released its interim report, which out-lined
the demographic pressures on the current pay-as-you-go program
and argued that the current trust fund financing mechanism did not effec-tively
save today's payroll tax surpluses to fund future benefit obligations.
Over the remainder of the year, the commission held a number of public
hearings and meetings, which often became the target of protests from
opponents of personal retirement accounts.
Nevertheless, in December the commission delivered its recommenda-tions
to the president. Those included three proposals illustrating how
personal retirement accounts could be integrated into the current Social
Security program, strengthening the system for the future while giving
workers ownership of and control over at least a part of their payroll taxes.
The commission's Plan 1 did nothing other than add voluntary personal
accounts to Social Security. Workers could choose to invest 2 percent of
their wages in a personal account. In return, workers with accounts would
give up a portion of their traditional retirement benefits. While Plan 1 did
not bring the system back to solvency, it illustrated that individual accounts
could increase benefits for all retirees while improving the financing health
of the program.
The commission's Plan 2 allowed workers to divert 4 percentage points
of their payroll taxes to a personal account, up to an annual maximum of
$1,000 (which would be indexed annually to the growth of wages). To
bring the traditional program back to financial balance, Plan 2 would
increase the initial benefits each cohort of new retirees receives by the
rate of price growth, rather than wage growth as under current law. This
'' price indexing'' of initial benefits would bring the program back to
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solvency and eventually deliver substantial payroll tax surpluses. In addi-tion,
Plan 2 contained new protections for low-wage workers and lower-income
widows. Plan 2 would be substantially cheaper than the current
system, requiring general revenue transfers 68 percent smaller (measured
in today's dollars).
The commission's Plan 3 would allow workers to divert 2.5 percentage
points of their payroll taxes to a personal account (up to an annual maxi-mum
of $1,000), provided they voluntarily deposited an additional 1
percent of their wages in the account. Plan 3 would pay all retirees a
larger benefit than that promised by the current program— and at a substan-tially
lower cost over the long term. Measured in today's dollars, the
general revenue cost of Plan 3 was less than half that of maintaining the
current program. Like Plan 2, Plan 3 contained new protections for low-wage
retirees and lower-income widows.
Together, the three commission plans show that personal accounts
enable a reformed Social Security program to pay higher benefits at lower
cost than the current pay-as-you-go method of financing.
Principles for Reform
As it approaches the historic debate over Social Security reform, Con-gress
should keep in mind five basic principles.
Solvency Is Not Enough
Workers deserve the best possible deal for their dollar. With Social
Security facing a financial crisis— it will begin running a deficit in just
14 years— much attention has been focused on ways to keep the program
solvent. Theoretically, that could be accomplished by raising taxes or
cutting benefits. But Social Security faces a second crisis as well: Young
workers will receive a negative rate of return from the program. They
will get less back in benefits than they pay in taxes. That low return,
and other inequities, particularly disadvantages women, the poor, and
minorities. Any Social Security reform must reverse this trend, raising the
rate of return and providing higher retirement benefits.
Individuals, Not Government, Should Invest
The only way to increase Social Security's rate of return is to invest
Social Security taxes in real capital assets. This should be done through the
creation of individually owned accounts, not by allowing the government to
directly invest payroll taxes. Individual accounts would give workers
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ownership of and control over their retirement funds, allowing them to
accumulate wealth and pass that wealth on to their heirs; it would also
give them a greater stake in the American economic system. Government
investment would allow the federal government to become the largest
shareholder in every American company, posing a potential threat to
corporate governance and the specter of social investing.
Maximize Consumer Choice
Workers should be given as wide a range of investment opportunities as
possible, consistent with regulatory safeguards against fraud or speculation.
While investing in '' Singapore derivatives'' is clearly not envisioned, there
is no reason to limit workers to only two or three index funds. As much
as possible, the existing retirement savings infrastructure should be used,
meaning workers would have a large number of safe and secure options.
Moreover, a safety net would guarantee that no senior would end up in
poverty as a result of bad investments.
Don't Touch Grandma's Check
Benefits to the currently retired and nearly retired should not be reduced.
Indeed, by explicitly recognizing benefits owed to current retirees, Social
Security reform would guarantee those benefits in a way that the current
political system does not. Making the transition to a new system while
guaranteeing current benefits means that the government will have to issue
debt, cut current spending, or sell assets, but those '' transition costs'' will
be substantially less than the costs of maintaining the current system.
More Investment Is Better Than Less
You don't cut out half a cancer. Given the advantages of individual
accounts, there is no excuse for stopping at only 2– 3 percent of payroll
taxes. Once Congress has conceded that private capital investment can
provide better and more secure retirement benefits, it should press on
and allow workers to control the maximum feasible amount of their
retirement income.
Answering the Objections
The Transition
The most difficult issue associated with any proposed reform of Social
Security is the transition. Put quite simply, regardless of what system we
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choose for the future, we have a moral obligation to continue benefits to
today's recipients. But if current workers divert their payroll taxes to
individual accounts, those taxes will no longer be available to pay benefits.
The government will have to find a new source of funds.
However, it should be understood that this is not a new cost. It is really
just making explicit an already existing unfunded obligation. The federal
government already cannot fund as much as $25 trillion of Social Security's
promised benefits. Reforming Social Security, therefore, will actually
reduce the amount of debt we owe.
The tradeoffs in refinancing a home mortgage provide a useful analogy.
There are costs associated with achieving a lower interest rate, such as
points, title insurance, a title search, attorneys' fees, a credit report, and
the like. The decision to refinance is based not only on the lower interest
rate but on those costs as well. If the present value of the costs and the
lower interest expense is less than the present value of the existing mortgage
interest expense, then there is a net benefit from refinancing even though
costs are incurred to achieve it. With Social Security, the cost of paying
for the transition to a system of individual accounts will be less than the
cost of preserving the current system.
Of course there will be a temporary cash flow problem while we make
the transition. We will have to find the revenues to pay benefits to current
retirees. Any financing mechanismwill be political, involving some combi-nation
of debt, transfers from general revenues, asset sales, and the like.
If both parties are willing to forgo new spending programs and junk tax
cuts, we can begin the transition to a new, improved Social Security system.
There are several methods of financing the transition. For example, a
small portion of the payroll tax could be continued temporarily. Workers
could be allowed to invest their half of the payroll tax (6.2 percentage
points of 12. 4 percent) with the remainder temporarily being used to fund
a portion of continued benefits. Congress could also identify additional
spending cuts and use the funds saved to finance the transition. Because
much federal government spending is wasteful or counterproductive, such
cuts would not be any sacrifice for society— indeed, the cuts themselves
might provide many benefits. A list of potential cuts can be found in
Chapter 23. The government could also sell many assets that it currently
owns. Finally, the government could issue bonds to spread the cost of
transition over several generations. It is important to understand that this
is not new debt; it is simply the explicit recognition of an existing implicit
debt under the current system.
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Risk
Last year's turmoil in the stock market provided ample evidence that
in any given year stocks can go down as well as up. But, in truth, the
year-to-year fluctuations of the stock market are irrelevant. What really
counts is the long-term trend of the market over a person's entire working
lifetime, in most cases 40 or 45 years. Given that long-term perspective,
there is no period during which the average investor would have lost
money by investing in the U. S. stock market. In fact, during the worst
20-year period in U. S. history, which included the Great Depression, the
stock market produced a positive real return of more than 3 percent.
As Figure 25. 2 shows, even with the recent stock market decline, a
worker investing only in stocks would receive benefits 2.8 times higher
than he would had he '' invested'' the same amount of money in the
current program.
Put another way, the recent decline in stock prices means the worker's
personal account would be worth the same today as it was worth in 1997.
But that worker's Social Security '' savings'' would be worth today only
what the personal account was worth in the late 1980s. It would take a
Figure 25.2 Value of Personal Accounts and Social Security Benefits
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
Accumulated
Value
of
Contributions
Personal account, S& P 500
Social Security, notional wealth
Assumptions: single male, average wage, retiring 2002. Employee
share of payroll tax (6.2 percent) paid into account, versus same tax
paid into current program.
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Figure 25.3 Total Benefits
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
$11,000
$12,000
$13,000
$14,000
$15,000
2002 2009 2016 2023 2030 2037 2044 2051 2058 2065 2072
Low-
Wage
Worker,
Annual
Benefit
(in
$2001) Reform plan total benefit,
including account
Current program payable benefit
much larger decline than the one we have seen for a personal account to
be a worse deal than the current program.
Benefit Cuts
Many opponents of individual accounts charge that creating such
accounts would lead to benefit cuts. However, that claim is based on two
faulty premises. First, opponents compare privatization proposals with
current law and suggest that those proposals will provide lower benefits,
or at least lower government-provided benefits. Second, they suggest that
transition costs to a privatized system will require tax increases.
But as Charles Blahous, executive director of the President's Commis-sion
to Strengthen Social Security, has pointed out, '' The essential problem
with comparing reform plans with 'current law' is that 'current law' allows
the system to go bankrupt. '' Or, as David Walker, comptroller of the
United States, warned: '' There's a lot of people that want to compare
Social Security reform proposals to promised benefits. That is fundamen-tally
flawed and unfair because all of funded benefits are not funded. ''
A fair test of Social Security reform proposals, including those that include
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Experts Speak Out on the Trust Fund
Congressional Budget Office: '' The size of the balance in the Social
Security Trust Funds— be it $2 trillion, $10 trillion, or zero— does
not affect the obligations that the federal government has to the
program's beneficiaries. Nor does it affect the government's ability
to pay those benefits. ''
General Accounting Office: Social Security's '' Trust Funds are not
like private Trust Funds. They are simply budget accounts used to
record receipts and expenditures earmarked for specific purposes. A
private Trust Fund can set aside money for the future by increasing
its assets. However, under current law, when the Trust Funds' receipts
exceed costs, they are invested in Treasury securities and used to
meet current cash needs of the government. These securities are an
asset to the Trust Fund, but they are a claim on the Treasury. Any
increase in assets to the Trust Funds is an equal increase in claims
on the Treasury. ''
Congressional Research Service: '' What often confuses people
[about the Trust Funds] is that they see these securities as assets for
the government. When an individual buys a government bond, he
or she has established a financial claim against the government. When
the government issues a security to one of its own accounts, it hasn't
purchased anything or established a claim against some other person
or entity. It is simply creating an IOU from one of its accounts
to another. ''
Clinton Administration 2000 Budget: ''[ Trust Fund] balances are
available to finance future benefit payments and other Trust Fund
expenditures— but only in a bookkeeping sense. . . . They do not
consist of real economic assets that can be drawn down in the future
to fund benefits. Instead, they are claims on the Treasury that, when
redeemed, will have to be financed by raising taxes, borrowing from
the public, or reducing benefits or other expenditures. The existence
of large Trust Fund balances, therefore, does not, by itself, have any
impact on the government's ability to pay benefits. ''
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individual accounts, is to compare them, not to promised benefits, but to
benefits that can actually be paid. By that standard, proposals to create
individual accounts come out far ahead.
Moreover, opponents of individual accounts frequently omit the funds
accumulating in those accounts when making comparisons. They compare
only government-provided benefits with government-provided benefits.
But that omits half the story. When total benefits under individual account
plans, that is benefits from the accounts plus government-provided benefits,
are considered, these plans provide benefits in excess of what Social
Security has promised, let alone what it can pay (Figure 25.3).
Conclusion
The American people have shown themselves ready for fundamental
Social Security reform. Now is the time for Congress to act. There is little
that the 108th Congress could do that would have a more profound impact
on the lives of the American people.
Suggested Readings
Biggs, Andrew. '' Personal Accounts in a Down Market: How Recent Stock Market Declines Affect the Social Security Reform Debate. '' Cato Institute Briefing Paper
no. 74, September 10, 2002. . Perspectives on the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security. ''
Cato Institute Social Security Paper no. 27, August 22, 2002. Ferrara, Peter, and Michael Tanner. A New Deal for Social Security. Washington: Cato
Institute, 1998. . Common Cents, Common Dreams: A Layman's Guide to Social Security Privati-zation.
Washington: Cato Institute, 1998. O'Neill, June. '' The Trust Fund, the Surplus, and the Real Social Security Problem. ''
Cato Institute Social Security Paper no. 26, April 9, 2002. Pin~ era, Jose´. '' Empowering Workers: The Privatization of Social Security in Chile. ''
Cato's Letters no. 10, May 1996.
Rounds, Charles. '' Property Rights: The Hidden Issue of Social Security Reform. '' Cato Institute Social Security Paper no. 19, April 19, 2000.
Tanner, Michael. '' No Second Best: The Unappetizing Alternatives to Individual Accounts. '' Cato Institute Social Security Paper no. 24, January 29, 2002.
—Prepared by Michael Tanner
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26. Public Health Care
Congress should
fundamentally restructure Medicare to expand competitive pri-vate
health plan choices; not add comprehensive prescription drug benefits to Medicare
unless and until it enacts structural reform of the entire program; encourage states to adjust Medicaid eligibility criteria and
covered benefits to serve fewer nondisabled, lower-income individuals— but then provide remaining beneficiaries with
higher-quality core health services and make greater use of cost-sharing incentives; and
facilitate state efforts to adapt defined-contribution-style financ-ing
as an option for Medicaid beneficiaries.
Over the past two years, Congress has again backed away from taking
on necessary restructuring of Medicare while private health options under
the Medicare Choice program have continued to shrink rather than
expand. Meanwhile, efforts to add a new runaway entitlement program
for prescription drug benefits came up short in the Senate after the House
narrowly approved its own flawed measure that strained to preserve the
appearance, but not the reality, of competitive and privately managed
Medicare drug insurance.
Congress also entertained proposals to expand eligibility for Medicaid
coverage to uninsured lower-income workers, to increase the federal
matching payments to state Medicaid programs, and to begin a federal
takeover of certain subsidy payments to '' dual eligible'' Medicare/ Medi-caid
beneficiaries; none of those measures became law.
In short, the status quo prevailed. Congress refrained from doing more
harm in both programs, but it also failed to make any progress toward
moving current and future beneficiaries away from unsustainable depen-271
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dence on two aging Great Society entitlement programs born in 1965 that
suffer from their own sets of worsening chronic conditions and disabilities.
Medicare's Midlife Crisis
Despite a few recent years of improved financial performance, Medicare
remains fundamentally flawed after 37 years in operation, and it is unsus-tainable
on a long-term basis. The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 launched a
new round of arbitrary price controls, regulatory complexity, and overzeal-ous
'' fraud and abuse'' enforcement that temporarily slowed the rate of
growth of Medicare spending. But Medicare's Hospital Insurance (Part
A) trust fund will resume spending more than it collects in taxes in 2016,
and it faces a long-term actuarial deficit of 2 percent of taxable payroll.
The Supplementary Medical Insurance (Part B) side of Medicare will
continue to grow faster than both Part A and the overall economy. It will
double its share of gross domestic product within 30 years.
The 2001 Financial Report of the United States Government, prepared
by the Financial Management Service of the Department of the Treasury,
provides a more comprehensive viewof the mounting burden that Medicare
will impose on current and future taxpayers. Medicare spending exceeded
the program's tax receipts and premiums by $59 billion in fiscal 2000,
and the annual gap will grow to an estimated $216 billion (using constant
dollars) in 2020. In 2002, Medicare program actuaries at the Centers
for Medicare and Medicaid Services conservatively projected that the
discounted net excess of cash spending over cash income during the next
75-year period would be $5. 1 trillion (even after including Medicare trust
funds' balances and future interest income, as well as general revenue
transfers to Part B). However, the Financial Report calculations from one
year earlier, using accrual accounting under generally accepted accounting
principles and therefore excluding interest payments and other intragovern-mental
transfers, estimated that the net present value of negative cash flow
(funds needed to cover projected shortfalls) was $4.7 trillion for Part A
and an additional $8.1 trillion for Part B (Table 26.1).
Working Americans remain on the hook for a rising share of the
imminent cost explosion. Federal general revenues already finance 25
percent of Medicare spending; that share will rise to more than half within
30 years. More than 37 years after it began in 1965, Medicare remains
one of the most volatile and uncontrollable programs in the federal budget.
Its unrestrained appetite will squeeze out other national priorities and
jeopardize opportunities for future generations.
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Table 26.1 U. S. Government Statement of Social Insurance
Present Value of Long-Range Actuarial Projections 1
Benefit
Payments
in Excess of
Contributions Contributions
and and
Earmarked Benefit Earmarked
Taxes 2 Payments 3 Taxes
2001 2000 2001 2000 2001 2000
Participants Who Are Currently Receiving Benefits:
Federal Hospital Insurance 113 97 1,693 1,681 1,580 1,584
(Medicare Part A)
Federal Supplementary 258 234 1,159 1,051 901 817
Medical Insurance
(Medicare Part B)
Participants Who Are Not Currently Receiving Benefits:
Federal Hospital Insurance 4,136 3,757 8,568 6,702 4,432 2,945
(Medicare Part A)
Federal Supplementary 1,845 1,527 7,415 6,094 5,570 4,567
Medical Insurance
(Medicare Part B)
Future Participants: 4
Federal Hospital Insurance 3,507 3,179 2,225 1,349 (1,282) (1,830)
(Medicare Part A)
Federal Supplementary 593 404 2,206 1,514 1,613 1,110
Medical Insurance
(Medicare Part B)
(continued)
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Table 26.1 (continued)
Net Present Value
Valuation of Negative
Valuation Period Date Cash Flow 5
Federal Hospital Insurance 1/ 1/ 2000– 12/ 31/ 2074 1/ 1/ 2000 2,699
(Medicare Part A) 2000
Federal Hospital Insurance 1/ 1/ 2001– 12/ 31/ 2075 1/ 1/ 2001 4,730
(Medicare Part A) 2001
Federal Supplementary 1/ 1/ 2000– 12/ 31/ 2074 1/ 1/ 2000 6,494
Medical Insurance
(Medicare Part B) 2000
Federal Supplementary 1/ 1/ 2001– 12/ 31/ 2075 1/ 1/ 2001 8,084
Medical Insurance
(Medicare Part B) 2001
SOURCE: Financial Report, United States Government Stewardship Information for the Years Ended September
30, 2001, and September 30, 2000 (unaudited).
Note: figures are billions of dollars. 1
Present values are computed based on the economic and demographic assumptions believed most likely to
occur (the intermediate assumptions) as set forth in the related Trustees' reports. 2
Contributions and earmarked taxes consist of payroll taxes from employers, employees, and self-employed
persons; revenue from Federal income taxation of OASDI; and monthly Medicare Part B premiums paid by,
or on behalf of, beneficiaries. Contributions and earmarked taxes for the Medicare Part B program presented
in this report are presented on a consolidated perspective. Interest payments and other intergovernmental
transfers have been eliminated. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' (CMS), formerly known as
the Health Care Financing Administration (HCFA), 2001 Annual Report presents income from the trust fund's
perspective, not a Government-wide perspective. Therefore, CMS's Annual Report includes $8,084 billion for
the present value of transfers from the general fund of the Treasury to the Medicare Part B Trust Fund that
have been eliminated in this Financial Report. 3
Benefit payments include administrative expenses. 4
Includes births during the period and individuals below age 15 as of January 1 of the valuation year. 5
The net present value of negative cash flow is the current amount of funds needed to cover projected shortfalls,
excluding trust fund balances, over the 75-year period. The trust fund balances at the beginning of the valuation
period that were eliminated for this consolidation were: $177 billion— Medicare Part A and $44 billion—
Medicare Part B. The projection period for new entrants covers the next 75 years for the Medicare program.
The projection period for current participants (or '' closed group'') would theoretically cover all of their working
and retirement years, but as a practical matter, the present values of future payments and contributions for/
from current participants beyond 75 years are not material. The actuarial present value of the excess of future
benefit payments to current participants (that is, to the closed group of participants) over future contributions
and tax income from them or paid on their behalf is calculated by subtracting the actuarial present value of
future contributions and tax income by and on behalf of current participants from the actuarial present value
of the future benefit payments to them or on their behalf.
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Moreover, simply struggling to preserve the current Medicare program,
without substantial improvements and structural change, would ignore the
needs of current and future beneficiaries. Medicare's basic benefit package
has become increasingly outdated and inflexible. Traditional coverage fails
to protect seniors against catastrophic medical bills or against almost any
outpatient prescription drug expenses at all. Resolution of many coverage
and reimbursement issues is hampered by inefficient, interminable, and
inconsistent administrative determinations. For example, Medicare admin-istrators
took an average of 383 days to make and implement a national
coverage decision in FY01. But, according to the Advanced Medical
Technology Association, it then may take the Centers for Medicare and
Medicaid Services an additional two years or more to assign codes and
set payment rates for a new technology or service.
Physicians face mounting burdens of Medicare paperwork and incom-prehensible
regulatory edicts that reduce the time they can spend with
their patients. Doctors also fear unwarranted accusations of fraud and harsh
sanctions by Medicare enforcement officials, according to the Medicare
Payment Advisory Commission. On top of that, Medicare reimbursement
formulas cut payments to doctors by more than 5 percent in 2002. Current
law requires overall reductions of 17 percent in Medicare fees paid for each
medical service from 2002 to 2005. Not surprisingly, growing numbers of
physicians are refusing to take new Medicare patients.
Although the 1999 bipartisan commission on Medicare sketched out
some promising structural reforms, further actions to follow up on them
and overhaul Medicare have languished, at best, in Congress. Instead,
Congress has preferred to debate to a standstill an expanded Medicare
entitlement to prescription drug coverage.
The next round of Medicare reform should emphasize structural change
over short-term budget savings targets. The bungled experiment in Medi-care
Choice must be repaired. Although the M C program aimed at
offering consumers more choice, a smaller percentage (14 percent) of
Medicare beneficiaries was enrolled in private plans during 2001 than
before the program was launched in 1997. The program has been plagued
by withdrawals of and service reductions by private health plans. Very
few insurers offered non-health-maintenance-organization (HMO) options,
such as preferred provider organizations (PPOs) or private fee-for-service
plans, and no carrier has ever offered a medical savings account
(MSA) plan.
New payment methods established by the Balanced Budget Act largely
failed to achieve their goal of limiting geographic variation in M C
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payment rates, but they had the unintended consequence of paying too
little in the most promising markets for expansion of private plan options.
Early bureaucratic efforts at full risk adjustment in payments to plans were
ineffective and suspended.
Congress needs to begin again with a blank sheet of paper and proceed
to eliminate the uncertainties and excesses of its complex regulatory
requirements, time limits, and payment methodologies for the faltering
M C program. Creation of a sustainable framework for Medicare modern-ization
requires moving from an antiquated defined-benefit structure
(which covers a specific set of health services) to a defined-contribution
model, under which seniors could choose among competing packages of
health benefits with taxpayers' costs capped at preset levels.
It is crucial that the traditional Medicare fee-for-service coverage pro-gram
be required to improve by competing for market share on a level
playing field. Many Medicare reformers emphasize the enhanced benefits
and higher-quality care that new private plan options might make available
to beneficiaries, but they tend to underplay, if not neglect, the key ingredi-ents
needed to make those improvements affordable. One necessary ele-ment
includes a payment system under which private plans bid to provide
required benefits, beneficiaries capture the savings from choosing less-costly
options, and the government's share of Medicare funding reflects
the enrollment-weighted average costs of the mandatory benefits provided
in all plans (including traditional Medicare).
Seniors seeking additional supplemental benefits would pay higher
premiums for them that would reflect their marginal costs. Because the
same insurer would provide both the required benefits and the supplemental
benefits, separate Medigap insurers that currently remove cost-sharing
incentives within basic coverage would no longer be able to pass on to
taxpayers the higher costs of additional spending. Medicare beneficiaries
who accepted greater individual responsibility would be rewarded with
broader health coverage choices and possible cash rebates.
Defined-contribution payments must be determined by competitive mar-ket
prices, instead of remaining linked to the politically driven and bureau-cratically
administered price controls of the traditional Medicare program.
Competitive bidding mechanisms and reasonable ground rules for periodic
open enrollment choices offer great promise for ending distorted prices
and poor information.
Other fundamental Medicare reforms include scrapping the mirage of
trust fund financing, particularly the arbitrary shell game distinctions
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between the Part A trust fund (financed by payroll taxes) and the Part B
trust fund (financed approximately three-quarters by general revenues and
one-quarter by beneficiary premium payments).
Adding prescription drug benefits to Medicare should accompany, not
precede, such structural reform. An updated M C program and a restruc-tured
version of traditional Medicare could offer a range of enhanced drug
options to beneficiaries willing to pay for them, perhaps through greater
cost sharing for other covered benefits. Encouraging insurers to assemble
packages of linked benefits would provide the greatest value by coordinat-ing
tradeoffs between drugs, surgery, hospitalization, and outpatient care
as treatment options.
Congress must continue to resist the impulse to spread a wide and thin
layer of visible, first-dollar drug subsidies to all Medicare beneficiaries,
regardless of need, rather than target them more narrowly to support more
generously those seniors most in need of assistance. Simply adding a new
round of underfunded, irresponsible promises to Medicare will stimulate
beneficiary demand for '' cheap'' drugs and overuse of those benefits. It
is sure to be followed by exploding budgetary costs and increases in the
'' unsubsidized'' price of Medicare's prescription drugs. Next will come
waves of drug coverage rollbacks, regulatory restrictions, tighter drug
formularies, and price controls that chill future innovative research and
snuff out the next round of life-saving drugs.
It's the same old dead-end path to the Medicare Money Pit that we've
already traveled down for hospital and physician services. The full costs
of government-mandated '' price discounts'' eventually include reduced
access to quality care and destabilized health care markets.
If Congress cannot resist the urge to add drug benefits without tackling
fundamental Medicare reform, it should at least do less harm by emphasiz-ing
higher deductibles and catastrophic loss protection for prescription
drug coverage, targeted assistance to lower-income seniors, and reformed
coverage for individual Medigap purchasers. Under no circumstances
should the door be opened to universal subsidies to seniors for routine,
manageable drug expenses.
The average out-of-pocket drug expenditure for all Medicare enrollees
in 2001 was about $650. Let's place the prescription drug issue in perspec-tive
by first dealing effectively with the small slice of Medicare beneficiar-ies
(fewer than 10 percent) that faces more than $2,000 a year in out-of-pocket
drug expenses, as well as with lower-income beneficiaries just
beyond the eligibility limits for Medicaid drug assistance.
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An initial round of the intermediate reform measures suggested above
would help realign the current Medicare structure to allow its later transfor-mation
into a fully privatized system of health care choices for seniors.
Congress should give careful consideration to eventually making it possible
for younger workers to divert some or all of their Medicare payroll taxes
into savings vehicles that would prefund their purchase of private health
insurance when they reach retirement age. Transitional finance issues may
slow the evolution toward this ultimate objective, but a full return to
individual responsibility and private-sector health care offers the only long-term
hope for surmounting the chronic financial crises and bureaucratic
morasses of Medicare as we know it.
Up and Away from Medicaid Dependence
Over the past 15 years, Medicaid program outlays grew more than any
other area of federal entitlement spending. Medicaid trails Social Security
and Medicare as the third largest entitlement program. When Medicaid
spending grew by 11 percent in FY01, it marked the fifth consecutive
year that the program's spending growth accelerated. The Congressional
Budget Office estimates that the federal share of Medicaid spending will
grow at an average rate of 8. 5 percent over the next 10 years.
Medicaid is a complex, patched-together assortment of four different
types of public insurance programs for various categories of low-income
Americans. It provides medical insurance for low-income women and
their children. It pays medical bills for the low-income disabled. It finances
a large portion of nursing home expenses for the elderly. It also picks up
some of the other health costs of the '' dual eligible'' elderly that are not
covered by Medicare (such as deductibles, coinsurance, Part B premiums,
and outpatient prescription drugs).
The program is not just terribly costly, it is prone to mismanagement as
an unwieldy mix of shared federal and state administrative responsibilities.
More fundamentally, Medicaid is handicapped by its flawed welfare enti-tlement
structure that still largely remains linked to one-size-fits-none sets
of defined benefits. Medicaid continues to be plagued by poor quality
health care and inadequate reimbursement levels. It keeps trying to promise
more yet delivers less and less.
Federal policy encouraged states to expand eligibility for and services
covered by their Medicaid plans over the last decade. State governments
were eager to do so, because federal taxpayers picked up roughly 50 percent
to 83 percent of Medicaid costs under matching formulas, depending
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on the particular state involved. States even exploited program funding
loopholes to funnel more federal dollars into their coffers through such
devices as phony '' tax payments and donations'' from providers and
artificially higher state payments to public medical facilities that qualified
for disproportionate share assistance.
The states belatedly discovered that they had indulged in too much of
a good thing in leveraging their share of Medicaid financing. Over the
last two years in particular, state Medicaid spending exploded at the same
time that state revenue growth first slowed and then declined. Although
state Medicaid program directors are beginning to learn that they cannot
make up their losses on more volume, they have remained reluctant to
cut back on their irrationally exuberant eligibility expansions of the 1990s.
Instead, they generally have preferred to keep provider reimbursement
rates well below market levels, blame pharmaceutical manufacturers for
rising drug costs, and beg for larger federal matching payments.
Congress should resist pressure to expand the Medicaid program to
new classes of beneficiaries, and it should encourage the states to put their
own fiscal houses in order. The Bush administration's aggressive use of
Medicaid waivers has provided more flexibility for state Medicaid pro-grams.
Its Health Insurance Flexibility and Accountability initiative allows
states to reduce benefits and increase cost sharing, but with an unfortunately
one-sided bias toward expanding the number of beneficiaries covered.
The political danger of buying greater '' market share'' for Medicaid at
loss-leader prices is that initial limits on benefits and coverage levels might
not be politically sustainable.
State Medicaid programs need to rethink their policy priorities in balanc-ing
Medicaid spending with other claims on overstretched budget dollars.
They should adjust eligibility criteria and covered benefits to serve fewer
nondisabled and (relatively) higher-income individuals— but then provide
those beneficiaries with higher quality health services. Instead of finding
new ways to pay medical providers even less money per billable charge,
they should focus on paying primary care doctors more adequately, making
greater use of copayments and cost-sharing incentives, and reducing other
optional Medicaid services. It's also more important to maximize coverage
of the lowest-income individuals and families that are eligible for Medicaid
but have few other insurance alternatives than to expand coverage to
relatively higher-income groups.
Benefit payments for low-income adults and children are not major
cost drivers. Those people represent about three-fourths of eligible benefici-279
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aries, but they account for only about one-fourth of total program costs.
Disabled individuals below age 65 constitute the fastest growing group
eligible for Medicaid and account for the fastest growing slice of Medicaid
spending. Medicaid spending per capita is highest for the low-income elderly,
primarily in the form of payments for long-term care in nursing homes.
Although the cost of Medicaid drug benefits has been growing at eye-popping
rates in recent years, it totaled just 11 percent of Medicaid spending
in 2000. Medicaid beneficiaries who are either elderly or disabled
accounted for almost 80 percent of those drug expenditures. Yet the health
of the elderly has been improving since the early 1980s, particularly in
terms of reduced rates of disability, because of improvements in medical
technology and health knowledge. Given that development of innovative
drug treatments has played a large role in this progress, recent state
efforts to leverage further price rebates out of drug makers through tighter
formularies and '' reference price'' ceilings may end up being penny-wise
and pound-foolish in terms of overall Medicaid costs if they cut off access
to new breakthrough drugs. Greater use of multitiered cost sharing provides
a more flexible mechanism for slowing skyrocketing rates of prescription
drug cost growth without arbitrarily restricting access to therapeutically
necessary medicines.
Ironically, disability rates among younger Americans (and eligibility for
Medicaid benefits) have been growing. This problem is best addressed
by reexamining loosened requirements for disability eligibility; improving
incentives for many disabled beneficiaries to build capital, reenter the work-force,
and regain self-sufficiency; and expanding promising '' Cash and
Counseling'' demonstration projects already under way in several states.
The benefits of more generous state Medicaid policies for nursing home
reimbursement have largely accrued to children who would otherwise
have to support and live with their elderly parents. Eligibility for Medicaid
assistance in paying nursing home costs should be targeted more narrowly
to the genuinely needy in order to provide stronger financial incentives
for aging baby boomers and future generations to purchase private long-term
care insurance.
Despite early enthusiasm on the part of many state governments for
contracting with private HMOs to coordinate medical care for Medicaid
recipients, a recent empirical review by Mark Duggan of the University
of Chicago demonstrated that switching from fee-for-service to Medicaid
managed care was associated with a substantial increase in government
spending but no observable improvement in health outcomes.
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A more ambitious intermediate-range Medicaid reform agenda should
include more efforts to adapt defined-contribution-style financing as an
option for beneficiaries so that they could control more of the content of
their benefits packages and capture the gains from spending less on covered
health services. Health care value is maximized better by '' fixing'' the
total cost of benefits under an insurance model that then allows eligibility,
the scope of benefits, and service quality to vary. Traditional Medicaid
program rules instead concentrate on fixing the scope of benefits and
eligibility criteria under an entitlement model that then focuses on budget
costs as the key variable (and treats quality and access as less important
considerations). Federal waiver authority should allow individual Medicaid
beneficiaries to claim their '' share'' of annualized capitated payments
within state managed care programs as a private health insurance voucher.
Those beneficiaries who chose to opt out of such programs could then
purchase other forms of private insurance coverage, as defined in the
Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act. States would be
allowed to waive certain mandatory Medicaid benefits requirements to
allow greater cost-sharing and economizing incentives.
Long-term reform will require that states be weaned from the federal
matching rate formula that encourages them to chase their fiscal tails in
search of federal dollars even as their state budgets plummet deeper into
fiscal holes.
Suggested Readings
Blevins, Sue A. Medicare's Midlife Crisis. Washington: Cato Institute, 2001. Ferrara, Peter. '' The Next Steps for Medicare Reform. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis
no. 305, April 29, 1998. Hyman, David A. '' HIPAA and Health Care Fraud: An Empirical Perspective. '' Cato
Journal 22, no. 1 (Spring– Summer 2002).
Miller, Tom. '' Competitive Alternatives to Medicare. '' In Privatization 2002: 16th Annual Report on Privatization. Reason Public Policy Institute, 2002.
. '' Improving Access to Care without Comprehensive Health Insurance. '' In Covering America: Real Remedies for the Uninsured, Edited by Elliot K. Wickes
and Jack A. Meyer. Washington: Economic and Social Research Institute, 2002. . '' The Medicare Drug War Escalates: Bush Opens Up a New Front— Compre-hensive
Reform. '' Cato Institute White Paper, September 8, 2000. Moses, Stephen. '' LTC Choice: A Simple, Cost-Free Solution to the Long-Term Care
Financing Puzzle. '' Center for Long-Term Care Financing, September 1, 1998. Teske, Richard. '' Abolishing the Medicaid Ghetto: Putting 'Patients First. ''' In The State
Factor. American Legislative Exchange Council, April 2002.
U. S. Department of the Treasury, Financial Management Service. 2001 Financial Report of the United States Government. Washington: Government Printing Office, 2001,
www. fms. treas. gov/ fr/ index. html.
—Prepared by Tom Miller
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Congress should
offer a simplified set of flexible medical savings account options
to all Americans; provide a tax credit option for taxpayers who choose to pur-chase
health insurance that is not sponsored by their employers; expand consumer choices that increase market-based account-ability
of health plans; and improve access to health care through incentives to purchase
less-comprehensive insurance, expand high-risk pool cover-age, finance charitable safety net care, and deregulate state
insurance regulation.
In the past two years, Congress finally may have exhausted its explora-tion
of incremental health care proposals that lacked any consistent and
coherent vision of free-market health care reform. The 107th Congress
ultimately backed away from reconciling yet another set of different House
and Senate versions of so-called patient's bill of rights legislation. Congress
could not decide whether to herd more low-income uninsured Americans
into Medicaid coverage or to accomplish income redistribution objectives
through refundable tax credits for health insurance. The saving grace for
a '' do-nothing'' Congress was that it did nothing to substantially expand
federal control over the U. S. health care system. However, it also failed
to begin to restore fundamental control of health care decisionmaking to
individual consumers within a competitive free market.
Freeing Medical Savings Accounts from a Regulatory Lockbox
One of the primary factors driving health care costs higher has been
the increased share of medical bills paid by third-party payers such as
private health insurers, employers, and government health program admin-283
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istrators. On average, more than three out of every four dollars used to
purchase health care are actually paid by someone other than the consumer
who incurs the bill.
The centerpiece of market-oriented health care that can reverse this
trend remains medical savings accounts (MSAs). MSAs combine two
elements— a savings account controlled by the insured individual to be
used to pay for routine health care expenses and a high-deductible (cata-strophic)
insurance policy to cover more substantial health care needs.
With MSAs, a much smaller share of health care spending is funneled
through third-party insurance. MSAs provide workers strong market incen-tives
to control the costs of their health care, because account holders are
effectively spending their own money for routine health items. That, in
turn, stimulates real cost competition among and price disclosure by doctors
and hospitals.
The 1996 Health Insurance Affordability and Accountability Act author-ized
up to 750,000 '' tax-qualified'' MSAs over a four-year period (later
extended to December 31, 2003). Unlike previous MSAs, those so-called
Archer MSAs featured tax-deductible treatment of MSA deposits and tax-exempt
treatment of investment earnings accumulated with the MSAs.
However, the potential of Archer MSAs has been hampered by eligibility
limits and other design flaws mandated by HIPAA.
The next Congress should authorize MSAs permanently and open MSA
eligibility to anyone covered by qualified high-deductible insurance. Mar-ket-
oriented MSA rules also should provide more flexibility in deductible
levels, contribution amounts, and fund withdrawal options. The best way
to bring down health costs and improve health care quality remains a
simple one— let workers and patients control more of their own health
care dollars.
Facilitating Defined-Contribution Employer Health Benefits
Agrowing number of employers are beginning to offer defined-contribu-tion-
style (DC) health benefits plans, in which the employer purchases
less-comprehensive, high-deductible group insurance coverage for workers
covered by the plan and then makes cash contributions to those workers'
individual health accounts. DC plans help employers cope with rising
health insurance costs by capping their total health benefits contributions,
increasing employee cost sharing, and empowering workers to handle
more routine health care decisions.
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Fewer than half (43 percent) of workers covered by employer-sponsored
insurance (ESI) are satisfied with the overall performance of their current
health plan, according to a Watson Wyatt Worldwide survey in 2001
(Figure 27.1). Fewer than half (48 percent) trust their employer to design
a health plan that will provide the coverage they need, and approximately
the same number of employees think better health plans are available for
the same cost (Figure 27.2). Almost 4 of 10 employees want their employer
to contribute a fixed-dollar amount toward the premium for any health
plan— even if it means the employees have to find their own health plans.
A '' purer'' form of DC plan would allow employees to select their
own individual insurance coverage, with the assistance of their employer's
original contribution. Whether individual employees pay just the extra
cost of additional out-of-pocket health spending or the extra cost of more
generous insurance coverage as well, DC plans provide incentives for
Figure 27.1 Most Employees Are Less Than Satisfied with
Health Plan Performance
Satisfied
43%
Not Satisfied
28%
Neutral
29%
SOURCE: Based on Watson Wyatt, '' Maximizing the Return on Health Benefits: 2001 Report on Best Practices
in Health Care Vendor Management, '' www. watsonwyatt. com/ research/ resrender. asp? id W-446& page3.
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Figure 27.2 Employees Want More Options and Greater Involvement in
Selecting a Health Plan
63%
55%
47%
48%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Trust their employer to design a health plan that will provide the
coverage they need
Think better health plans are available for the same cost
Want greater choice of plans
Believe employer primarily considers cost
when deciding which plans to offer
SOURCE: Based on Watson Wyatt, '' Maximizing the Return on Health Benefits: 2001 Report on Best Practices
in Health Care Vendor Management, '' www. watsonwyatt. com/ research/ resrender. asp? id W-446& page3.
people to compare the value of the health care they receive with that of
other goods and services they might want.
DC plans might provide a halfway house in the transition from compre-hensive
ESI to high-deductible MSA plans. Value-conscious employers
and employees could insist that insurers '' spin off'' (not insure) items
about which little uncertainty exists or for which the typical treatment
cost is relatively low compared with the paperwork required to process
the claim. Whereas MSA plans rely on much higher deductible levels for
accompanying catastrophic insurance policies and treat all insured services
equally, two-tiered DC plans could provide certain '' preventive care''
health services with first-dollar coverage, while others might not be covered
at all.
Despite the potential benefits of two-tiered DC plans, as well as recent
tax guidance issued by the Internal Revenue Service clarifying how accu-mulated
balances in an individual employee's health reimbursement
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account may be treated when rolled over at the end of a year, several
regulatory barriers to the future growth of DC plans still need to be
removed.
First, '' pure'' DC plans for fully insured employer groups, in which an
employer distributes defined health benefits contributions to each eligible
employee and allows employees to purchase their own individual or non-employer-
group insurance coverage, run the risk of being regulated incon-sistently.
They might be treated both as employee welfare benefit '' group''
plans and as '' individual'' health plans under state law.
Congress should clarify the regulatory treatment of this kind of DC
plan so that it is not considered an '' employee welfare benefit plan'' for
regulatory purposes under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act.
However, such plans or funds should retain their '' group'' tax exclusion
benefits under the Internal Revenue Code. One possible version of such
hybrid treatment (group for tax purposes, individual for regulatory pur-poses)
was proposed in the Health Care Act of 2001 (H. R. 2658).
Second, the defined contributions that employers make to individual
employees in pure DC plans, to be used to purchase individual health
insurance coverage, should be allowed to vary on the basis of health status
in the event the employer uses an approved risk-adjustment mechanism.
Congress should amend HIPAA rules to allow employers to make larger
contributions to workers with poorer health status to offset the higher
premiums they face when they seek to purchase individual coverage.
Third, recent IRS guidance regarding the tax-free rollover status of
employer contributions to health reimbursement accounts still does not
allow accumulated funds to become vested for other non-health-spending
purposes. Nor does it allow employees to contribute their own money to
such tax-advantaged accounts. To a large extent, allowing annual rollovers
of flexible spending account (FSA) fund balances, or expanding the avail-ability
of MSAs, would bypass most of this problem if Congress does
not address it more directly.
Tax Equity and Efficiency
MSAs and DC health plans provide a foundation for free-market health
reform, but Congress also needs to enact more fundamental changes in
the tax treatment of health care benefits. The tax system should promote
economic efficiency and be perceived as fair. Its compliance and adminis-trative
costs should be kept to a minimum. Tax policy proposals that try
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to target more narrow objectives must be structured to reinforce, not
undercut, those fundamental principles.
Federal tax law excludes the cost of employer-sponsored health insur-ance
benefits from the taxable income of individual workers. Many
employers also offer their employees tax-exempt FSAs for health care
reimbursements. However, those job-based tax benefits for health care
spending put employers, instead of employees, in charge of selecting
health care benefits. Special tax treatment of ESI via the so-called tax
exclusion forces many working Americans to accept the only health plan
offered by their employer or pay higher taxes.
The tax exclusion also raises the comparative after-tax price of other
non-employer-based insurance alternatives. Although similar tax subsidies
are available to the self-employed, the tax exclusion provides no assistance
at all to other individuals (such as Americans working in firms that do
not provide health insurance) who might wish to purchase health insurance
on their own.
The tax exclusion distorts health care purchasing choices by favoring
the financing of medical services through insurance and providing the
greatest tax benefits for the most costly versions of employer-sponsored
coverage. It encourages workers to think that someone else (their employer)
pays for their health care, and it reduces their sensitivity to the cost of
health insurance choices. The tax exclusion disconnects the consumption
decisions of insured workers and their families from the payment decisions
of employers and their insurers. Tax subsidies for health insurance over-stimulate
the demand for health care and, perversely, increase its total
cost, creating net welfare losses estimated at 20 percent to 30 percent of
total insurance spending.
The current tax subsidy for health insurance is inefficient and unfair.
It should be reformed to place individuals, not employers or government,
in charge of choosing something as personal as health care.
The best way to remove tax policy distortions from the health insurance
market would be to eliminate tax subsidies for employment-based health
insurance altogether. Implementing a flat income tax or a national sales
tax would provide the best comprehensive solution. Fundamental tax
reform would render neutral the federal government's tax treatment of all
goods and services, including health care. Employer-paid health benefits
either would be treated as taxable income earned by employees (flat tax)
or would be subject to a sales tax like other goods and services (national
sales tax).
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However, repeal of the tax exclusion would need to be phased in
gradually and be accompanied by offsetting reductions in marginal income
tax rates and increases in income tax bracket thresholds, in order to
minimize economic distortions and return the money to the American
workers who earn it.
Absent a broad restructuring of the tax code, the next-best policy would
be to offer a new federal tax credit option, most likely amounting to 30
percent of the cost of qualified insurance coverage. The tax credit option
would not eliminate the current tax exclusion; it would provide a competi-tive
alternative for workers to choose in place of the tax exclusion. It
would encourage a more gradual transition to other forms of private
insurance coverage. The tax credit option also would be made available
to other individuals and families that currently do not qualify for the tax
exclusion because they lack access to ESI coverage.
Employers that continue to offer ESI should be required to report
the value of the employer-financed share of that coverage to individual
employees on their regular periodic pay statements and annual W-2 forms.
The default setting for such disclosure would assume that workers in
employer-group plans are community rated within the firm and the
employer contributions for coverage are identical for each worker (such
as the periodic equivalent of the firm's per employee COBRA premium).
In the event that employers were allowed to adjust health plan contributions
to reflect factors specific to individual workers, they could report those
different amounts instead.
The new tax credits would be assignable to insurers and advanceable,
but not refundable. The maximum tax credit available to any eligible
individual would be no greater than that individual's total federal income
tax and FICA payroll tax liability (including both the employee and
employer shares) for the previous calendar year. Only taxpayers would
receive tax credit '' relief'' for health insurance costs.
The net effect of the above tax reform would be to encourage workers
and their families either to move from ESI coverage to individually pur-chased
insurance or to ensure that the ESI plan they select represents the
best competitive value they can find.
Congress should consider using the new tax credit option to leverage
other market-opening reforms. In that case, consumers wishing to use the
tax credit would have to purchase an insurance package that covered a
minimum set of health services and included a minimum, but significant,
front-end deductible (along with maximum out-of-pocket '' stop-loss'' lim-289
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its). Qualified insurance policies might provide separately priced guaran-teed
renewal options in return for exemption from HIPAA's guaranteed
renewal requirements. Those policies also should be exempt from individ-ual
state benefit mandates. New voluntary purchasing pools could be
authorized to accept tax credit funds to pay for such qualified insurance
in return for federal preemption of state benefit mandates, fictitious group
laws, or rating laws that would otherwise interfere with their operations.
Providing a new tax credit option could jump-start the evolution toward
an employee benefits environment in which workers more directly control
their health care benefits and insurance choices. It would ensure sufficient
consumer demand for individually selected insurance arrangements and
provide a competitive alternative to ESI coverage.
Improving Access to Health Care for the Low-Income Uninsured
Any new tax credits for health care should not try to finance comprehen-sive
insurance for all uninsured, low-income Americans. Most refundable
tax credit proposals are designed to award tax '' cuts'' to individuals who
pay little, or no, federal taxes. But endorsing a new round of income
redistribution and federal spending via the tax code (in the name of health
care) is contradictory and counterproductive. Refundable health tax credits
blur necessary policy distinctions between how to set the appropriate
level of income-based welfare assistance and how to neutralize the many
distortions caused by our complex tax system. The politics of refundable
tax credit proposals also has unfortunately steered recent health care debates
away from broad, individual empowerment tax reforms and toward a
narrow, cramped version of targeted handouts to smaller slices of the low-income
uninsured population. The alternative budgetary end game of
traveling down the road to a universal fixed-dollar tax credit is likely to
involve financing new subsidies for nontaxpayers by reducing the current
health insurance tax benefits available to higher-income Americans (in
other words, the old politics of trying to soak the rich to subsidize the poor).
Refundable tax credits combine bad tax policy, bad welfare policy, and
bad health policy. They reinforce the mistaken stance of those who argue
that cuts in marginal tax rates are somehow '' unfair'' when they provide
most of their benefits to those who pay the largest share of federal income
taxes. Refundable credits also are prone to carrying the lumpy baggage
of complex income-based, phase-out levels; tight restrictions on the con-290
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tents of eligible health benefits packages; and narrow rules for eligible
insurers.
Making health tax credits refundable would endorse expansion of current
taxpayer-financed '' entitlements'' to health insurance coverage. It would
adopt the view that health insurance is a '' merit good'' for everyone and
that necessary access to health care cannot be adequately financed without
even greater subsidies from taxpayers for insurance coverage. Many law-makers
who salute the remarkable benefits gained from limiting the magni-tude
and duration of cash assistance to low-income beneficiaries on the
welfare rolls nevertheless appear poised to dole out a new round of
permanent '' welfare'' checks to the working poor, hidden beneath a refund-able
health tax-credit label.
For low-income individuals lacking access to health insurance, the better
policy solutions include safety net reforms that strengthen state high-risk
pools and encourage charitable contributions to provide health services
through nonprofit intermediaries. Dollar for dollar, investing in safety net
assistance that directly delivers care to the uninsured is more effective
and productive than trying to coax them to purchase health insurance with
modest tax subsidies. In the long run, improving the quality of education
that lower-income individuals receive, expanding their personal control
of health care decisions, and reversing regulatory policies that increase
the cost of their health care will yield even greater returns in improved
health outcomes.
Managed Care and Consumer Empowerment
Although the growth of managed care insurance coverage during the
1990s helped to restrain the rate of growth of health care costs, consumers
increasingly became dissatisfied with managed care's limits on covered
treatments and restrictions on their choice of physicians. Various '' patient's
bill of rights'' (PBOR) measures have been proposed in Congress to
respond to (or at least exploit) those cost and quality conflicts.
In the 107th Congress, both House and Senate bills advanced that would
have extended the tentacles of federal regulation more tightly over health
insurance arrangements and health care delivery. A multitude of new
federal commands was buttressed by the usual vague, undefined terms
and weasel words, sure to expand bureaucratic discretion and control in
future rounds of reinterpretation and elaboration. Even without more
explicit rights to sue health plans over coverage denials, approval of PBOR
mandates would have opened the door to federal micromanagement of
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complex health care decisions and provided the foundation for lawsuits
based on alleged violations of mandatory standards.
Ironically, while Capitol Hill politicians again reached a dead end in
negotiations over a final PBOR bill, they were essentially still fighting
the last war. The marketplace had moved on. The pure vision of HMO-style
health care failed several years ago. HMOs reduced costs primarily
by gaining bargaining leverage and squeezing the wallets of providers on
fees, but their claims of evidence-based health care management and cost-saving
preventive care often were more illusion than reality. Other forms of
managed care became more widespread and more attractive to employers.
Employers shifted their health plans to preferred provider organizations
with broad networks and fewer limits on access to care. When workers
insisted on more choices and fewer hassles, their employers generally
responded. However, part of the price of loosened management of health
care services may have been the recent return of annual double-digit
percentage increases in health insurance premiums.
The most immediate victims of PBOR-style regulation would be the
consumers who don't want, or cannot afford to pay for, the type of
minimum contract terms that the legislation would mandate. Raising the
cost of health insurance and regulating away low-cost HMO options will
hurt low-income workers the most. They will either have to pay the higher
price of upper-middle-class medical care expectations or have to go without
any insurance at all. Price-sensitive small employers who could no longer
find low-cost HMO options also would be squeezed out of the insur-ance
market.
Instead of offering consumers another set of unreliable third-party guard-ians
(regulators, independent medical reviewers, and courts), Congress
should emphasize greater tax equity for all health care purchasers and
expanded pooling options outside the workplace so that disgruntled con-sumers
could choose and control the types of health plan and benefits
packages for which they are willing to pay.
A policy environment friendlier to value-driven consumer choice would
hold managed care insurers and self-insured employers more accountable
to their true customers. Consumers would rely on voluntary contracts and
competitive markets, instead of random lawsuits, to stimulate better service,
relevant disclosure, benefits flexibility, and health care innovation. Or they
would switch insurers.
Legitimacy and acceptance of after-the-fact results in health care require
before-the-fact opportunities to choose. Many consumers may not want
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to manage personally most details of their health care decisions, but they
should get to decide who will decide for them.
Insurers or employers that still choose to more actively manage health
care decisions or supervise in-network providers should be exposed to
vicarious liability for medical malpractice and other negligent treatment
decisions. Liability rules should clarify the differences between contractual
obligations (delivering what it promised by the written terms of a health
insurance policy) and tort liability (providing compensation for personal
injuries and other losses arising from care rendered by health care providers
under the contract between a health plan and a purchaser of its coverage).
Augmenting ERISA contract remedies for wrongful denial of coverage
could be handled through early offer settlement incentives and a worker's
compensation– like schedule of recoveries tied to the cost of denied benefits.
For the last six years, Congress has remained both fixated on and
stalemated over how to hold managed care plans more accountable for
adverse medical treatment outcomes but avoid crushing them under an
avalanche of personal injury lawsuits. If the next Congress cannot remain
away from the PBOR bargaining table, it should at least reconsider the
applicable standard that it sets for external review of coverage decisions.
Review should focus on interpreting and enforcing the actual contractual
terms of a particular health plan— rather than on making de novo '' expert''
judgments about what constitutes '' medically necessary'' treatment
according to a uniform standard of care.
Restoring the role of consensual contracts, instead of expanding the
role of adversarial tort lawsuits and political micromanagement, would
improve the range of competitive health care choices for consumers and
encourage better monitoring of health care quality.
Conclusion
We cannot afford to allow the market vision of health care reform to
be dimmed and obscured by cut-rate compromises that lead to a slow,
steady drift toward centralized, politicized control of health spending deci-sions.
Every calculated attack on private health insurance markets should
be resisted before a series of '' small'' proposals steadily accumulates to
make private coverage ever more expensive and difficult to obtain.
Health care costs will remain too high, the value of health insurance
too inadequate, and the quality of health care too low until we restore a
genuine free market in health care, from cradle to grave.
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Suggested Reading
Bunce, Victoria C. '' Medical Savings Accounts: Progress and Problems under HIPAA. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 411, August 8, 2001.
Miller, Tom. '' Improving Access to Health Care without Comprehensive Health Insurance Coverage. '' In Covering America: Real Remedies for the Uninsured. Edited by Elliot
K. Wicks and Jack A. Meyer. Washington: Economic and Social Research Insti-tute, 2002.
. '' Nickles-Stearns Is Not the Market Choice for Health Care Reform. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 210, June 13, 1994.
. '' A Regulatory Bypass Operation, '' Cato Journal 22, no 1 (Spring– Summer 2002).
Miller, Tom, and Gregory Conko. '' Getting beyond the Managed Care Backlash. '' Regulation 21, no. 4 (Fall 1998).
Miller, Tom, and Scott E. Harrington. '' Competitive Markets for Individual Health Insurance. '' Health Affairs, October 23, 2002.
Morreim, E. Haavi. '' Defined Contribution: From Managed Care to Patient-Managed Care. '' Cato Journal 22, no. 1 (Spring– Summer 2002).
. '' The Futility of Medical Necessity. '' Regulation 24, no. 2 (Summer 2001). Scandlen, Greg. '' Legislative Malpractice: Misdiagnosing Patients' Rights. '' Cato Insti-tute
Briefing Paper no. 57, April 7, 2000. Tanner, Michael. '' Medical Savings Accounts: Answering the Critics. '' Cato Institute
Policy Analysis no. 228, May 25, 1998.
—Prepared by Tom Miller
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28. Department of Education
Congress should
abolish the Department of Education and
return education to the state, local, or family level, as provided
by the Constitution.
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor
prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to
the people.
—Tenth Amendment to the U. S. Constitution
The U. S. Department of Education, formed in 1979 during the Carter
administration, represents an intrusion by the federal government into an
aspect of American society for which there is no constitutional authority.
The U. S. Constitution gives Congress no authority whatsoever to collect
taxes for, fund, or operate schools. Therefore, under the Tenth Amendment,
education should be entirely a state and local matter.
For more than 200 years, the federal government had left education to
those who were in the best position to oversee it— state and local govern-ments
and families. Richard L. Lyman, president of Stanford University,
who testified at the congressional hearings on forming the new department,
pointed out that '' the two-hundred-year-old absence of a Department of
Education is not the result of simple failure during all that time. On the
contrary, it derives from the conviction that we do not want the kind of
educational system that such arrangements produce. ''
Without question, the Framers intended that most aspects of American
life would be outside the purview of the federal government. They never
envisioned that Congress or the president would become involved in
funding schools or mandating policy for classrooms. As constitutional
scholar Roger Pilon has said: '' From beginning to end the [Constitution]
never mentioned the word 'education. ' The people, in 1787 or since, have
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never given the federal government any power over the subject— despite
a concern for education that surely predates the Constitution. ''
Why then was the Department of Education created? President Jimmy
Carter, during whose watch the new department came into being, had
promised the department to the National Education Association. Contem-porary
editorials in both the New York Times and the Washington Post
acknowledged that the creation of the department was mainly in response
to pressure from the NEA. According to Rep. Benjamin Rosenthal (D-N.
Y.), Congress went along with the plan out of '' not wanting to embarrass
the president. '' Also, many members of Congress had made promises to
educators in their home districts to support the new department. The Wall
Street Journal reported the admission of one House Democrat: '' The idea
of an Education Department is really a bad one. But it's NEA's top
priority. There are school teachers in every congressional district and most
of us simply don't need the aggravation of taking them on. '' Former house
minority leader Bob Michel termed the Department of Education the
'' Special Interest Memorial Prize'' of the year.
The new department started with a $14 billion budget and more than
4,000 employees, all transferred from other departments. Proponents
claimed that cost savings would be realized, but opponents pointed out
that a new department would require not only a new secretary but also
the corresponding assistant secretaries, under secretaries, support staff,
office space, regional offices, cars, and other amenities. All of those would
be necessary for the new department to look and act like a bona fide cabinet
department. Critics of the department also pointed to the Department of
Energy, formed two years earlier, which had been the subject of a tangle
of regulations and confusing policies. Rep. John Rousselot (R-Calif.) said:
'' If you like the Department of Energy, you'll love the Department of
Education. You'll have every bureaucrat in Washington looking at your
school district. ''
Has the Department of Education produced budget savings or a stream-lining
of federal education programs? No. The department's budget has
continually increased, from $14.5 billion in 1979 to $47.6 billion in 2002.
According to analyses of federal education spending before and after the
creation of the Department of Education, after its creation, federal spending
on education increased at twice the rate it had before.
Chester Finn, who served as assistant secretary of education from 1985
until 1988, made the following observation about why education spending
increased faster once we had a Department of Education:
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When budget time rolls around, a department is able to exert more clout
in pressing for larger funding from Congress than can smaller agencies. It
carries a bureaucratic momentum and muscle all its own. Since it no longer
has to compete with health and welfare, as it did under HEW, the new
department will be able to exert the full brunt of the education lobby in
its behalf upon the Congress. Make no mistake about it, the principal reason
the NEA and the administration wanted to elevate the Office of Education
to a full-fledged department was to give it the political power and prestige
to seek bigger budget increases for federal education programs.
Along with the budget, the maze of federal education programs continues
to expand under the Department of Education. Wayne Riddle, representing
the Congressional Research Service, testified before a 1995 congressional
hearing that the potential overlap of Department of Education programs
with those of other federal agencies has probably increased since 1979 in
such areas as vocational education and job training, science education, and
early childhood education. Last year, the House Education and Workforce
Committee reported that there were more than 760 education-related pro-grams
spread across 39 federal agencies costing taxpayers $120 billion
per year. President Bush's 2003 budget calls for federal spending on
myriad education programs that are clearly local in nature— from special
reading and after-school programs to tutoring preschoolers to job training
for their parents.
Also, the Department of Education and its nearly 5,000 employees have
had virtually no positive effect on the performance of schools or the
academic gains of school children. The department's own national history
report card issued in May 2002 found that only 43 percent of the nation's
12th graders had at least a basic understanding of U. S. history, unchanged
from 1994, the last time the test was given. On one question, the majority
of high school seniors chose Germany, Japan, or Italy as a U. S. ally in
World War II. Diane Ravitch, education adviser to the Bush administration
and professor of education at New York University, called the results
'' truly abysmal. '' '' Since the seniors are very close to voting age or have
already reached it, '' she observed, '' one can only feel alarm that they
know so little about their nation's history and express so little capacity
to reflect on its meaning. '' Comparisons of U. S. students with students
in other countries show that U. S. students still lag behind students in
countries such as Finland, Australia, and New Zealand.
It's fair to say that the Department of Education has had no apparent
positive effect on the academic performance of U. S. school children.
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Instead, its major effect has been to move the focus on improving education
from parents and local districts to Washington, D. C. Federal guidelines
now cover topics such as how schools discipline students, the content of
sex education courses, and the gender of textbook authors. Former secretar-ies
of education Lamar Alexander and William Bennett have stated that
the department has '' an irresistible and uncontrollable impulse to stick its
nose into areas where it has no proper business. Most of what it does
today is no legitimate affair of the federal government. The Education
Department operates from the deeply erroneous belief that American
parents, teachers, communities and states are too stupid to raise their own
children, run their own schools and make their own decisions. ''
American taxpayers have spent virtually billions of dollars on the Depart-ment
of Education since its founding in 1979, yet test scores and other
measures indicate no improvement in American education (Figure 28.1).
The benefits promised by the proponents of the department plainly have
not materialized. There is simply no legitimate reason to continue this
failed experiment.
Figure 28.1 Average Student Performance and Cost
0
5
10
15
20
25
198019811982198319841985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Billions
of
Dollars
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205
210
215
220
225
230
235
240
245
250
Average
Score
Appropriation for elementary and secondary
education (2001 dollars) NAEP reading scores, age 9
SOURCE: U. S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of
Educational Progress, 1999 Long Term Trend Assessment, www. nces. ed. gov/ nationsreportcard/ reading/ trends-national.
asp; and U. S. Department of Education, Budget Office, Education Department Budget by Major
Program, www. ed. gov/ offices/ OUS/ Budget02/ History. pdf.
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No Child Left Behind Act
The foremost policy initiative of the Bush administration to date has
been the No Child Left Behind Act, a comprehensive plan to encourage
states to improve the performance of American public schools through
mandatory testing and an accountability plan that requires states to deter-mine
which schools are failing. The supporters of the NCLBA assure us
that these actions will improve schools. But the response of public school
districts to the federal mandate thus far shows how resistant the education
establishment is to change. Most districts have designated only a few
schools as alternatives to those schools in their districts categorized as
failing, leaving students with little choice of an alternative. And in many
cases, the designated alternative schools are not much better than the
school the child would be leaving. Some districts, like Washington, D. C.,
have nowhere to send children who wish to leave poorly performing
schools. D. C. School Board president Peggy Cooper Cafritz noted that
all D. C. high schools, except four, '' are generally lousy, so where do we
send the children? '' Few school districts have published user-friendly
information about available schools, and some districts do not even allow
parents to designate on the transfer application where they want their child
to go.
Although the bill requires that schools show '' adequate yearly prog-ress,
'' there is no consensus about what amount of progress is adequate,
so states can formulate a definition that shows most schools as successful,
even if the parents are dissatisfied with the results. In July 2002 Arkansas,
for example, reported zero failing schools, while Michigan reported 1, 513
failing schools. This is a highly dubious situation since Arkansas ranked
42nd in the nation and Michigan ranked 26th on the American Legislative
Exchange Council's recent '' Report Card on American Education, '' which
ranks states on the basis of K– 12 academic achievement.
The NCLBA is also a funding initiative that gives billions of additional
federal dollars to failing schools. The Washington, D. C., school district,
a school system with a long string of documented inefficiencies and a
history of waste and corruption, already spends the second largest amount
per student in the nation. Under the new federal program, the D. C. public
schools will receive $149. 8 million in additional funding. No reasonable
person who is familiar with the D. C. system would expect to see any
benefit result from placing those funds in the hands of the people who
are in charge of running the failing D. C. schools.
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The NCLBA provides the Department of Education with $26. 5 billion
for spending on the program and perpetuates most of the old federal
education programs, most of which are ineffective and wasteful. The total
could climb to $37 billion a year by the end of the six-year authorization
period. If past experience is any guide, those dollars will go primarily to
feeding the hungry bureaucracy and will have little positive impact on
public school students.
Instead of decreasing the role of the federal government in education,
the NCLBA allows the federal government to intervene more than ever
in what should be strictly a local and state matter. While the act provides
school districts with increased flexibility in spending some of their federal
subsidies, mandated testing and staff restructuring represent an unprece-dented
usurpation of the authority of local communities to run their
own schools.
During his presidential campaign, Bush emphasized that he did not
want to become the '' federal superintendent of schools. '' But the NCLBA
gives the president and the federal government far too much power over
local schools and classrooms. Instead of proposing more top-down fixes
for education, the president should use his position to push for the return
of control of education to states and localities and urge state-level reforms
that return the control of education to parents.
New Directions
There is a growing awareness that parents, not distant government
bureaucrats, should have more power over their children's education. After
years of legal battles over school choice in places like Cleveland, Ohio,
and Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the U. S. Supreme Court ruled in June 2002
that school vouchers were constitutional and that parents could use them
at either secular or religious private schools. School choice programs now
exist in Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Maine, Vermont,
and Illinois. Many more states will consider school choice legislation
during the coming two years.
The way for Congress to improve American education is to step aside
and let the states experiment with choice in a variety of ways. Some will
expand charter schools or experiment with private management. Others
will institute scholarship tax credits, parental tax credits, or vouchers either
on a limited basis or open to all students. The most successful policies
and programs will be emulated by other states.
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Nine Reasons to Abolish the Department of Education
1. The Constitution provides no authority whatsoever for the federal
government to be involved in education. Eliminating the department
on those grounds would help to reestablish the original understand-ing
of the enumerated powers of the federal government.
2. No matter how brilliantly designed a federal government program
may be, it creates a uniformity among states that is harmful to
creativity and improvement. Getting the federal government out
of the picture would allow states and local governments to create
better ways of addressing education issues and problems.
3. If education were left at the local level, parents would become
more involved in reform efforts. Differences in school effective-ness
among states and communities would be noted, and other
regions would copy the more effective programs and policies.
4. The contest between Congress and state legislatures to demonstrate
who cares more about education would be over, allowing members
of Congress to focus on areas and problems for which they have
legitimate responsibility.
5. Since most information about the problems and challenges of
education is present at the local level, Congress simply does not
have the ability to improve learning in school classrooms thou-sands
of miles away. These problems are best understood and
addressed by local authorities and parents.
6. The inevitable pattern of bureaucracy is to grow bigger and bigger.
The Department of Education should be eliminated now, before
it evolves into an even larger entity consuming more and more
resources that could be better spent by parents themselves.
7. The $47.6 billion spent each year by the Department of Education
could be much better spent if it were simply returned to the
American people in the form of a tax cut. Parents themselves
could then decide how best to spend that money.
8. The Department of Education has a record of waste and abuse.
For example, the department reported losing track of $450 million
during three consecutive General Accounting Office audits.
9. The Department of Education is an expensive failure that has
added paperwork and bureaucracy but little value to the nation's
classrooms.
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Since Congress has no authority under the Constitution to collect taxes
for, fund, or regulate schools, it should not tax Americans to fund a
huge federal education bureaucracy that exercises dictatorial control over
curriculum, standards, and policy. The only actions that should be taken
at the federal level are those that deregulate education. For example,
Congress should repeal the many regulations and mandates governing
special education and allow states to set up their own programs for educat-ing
special needs children. Instead of mandating tests or other accountabil-ity
measures and subsidizing the public school monopoly, it should free
states from their addiction to federal funds, eliminate the myriad unneces-sary
and unconstitutional federal programs, and allow the states to take
the lead in reforming education.
Except in Washington, D. C., where Congress has constitutional author-ity
over legislative matters, it should not set up demonstration projects or
fund voucher programs. Federal tax credits for parents who use private
schools may seem attractive, but, since Congress has no constitutional
authority to collect taxes for education, it would be better to simply
institute a tax cut for all Americans, eliminate the wasteful and meddlesome
Department of Education, and allow individual Americans to decide how
best to spend that money. We must remember that parents, not politicians,
are in the best position to make decisions about the education of their
children.
James Madison, who proclaimed that the powers of the federal govern-ment
should be few and enumerated, would be shocked at what the
president and Congress are doing today in relation to an aspect of family
life that was never intended to come under the control of Congress, the
White House, or any federal agency. Congress should take the enlightened
view, consistent with that of the nation's Founders, and draw a line in
the sand that won't be crossed. Education is a matter reserved to the
states, period.
Suggested Readings
Boaz, David, ed. Liberating Schools: Education in the Inner City. Washington: Cato
Institute, 1991.
Finn, Chester E. Jr., and Michael J. Petrilli. '' Washington versus School Reform. '' Public
Interest 133 (Fall 1998).
Coulson, Andrew. Market Education: The Unknown History. New Brunswick, N. J.:
Transaction, 1999.
Harmer, David. School Choice: Why You Need It, How You Get It. Washington: Cato
Institute, 1994.
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Lieberman, Myron. Public Education: An Autopsy. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1993.
Richman, Sheldon. '' Parent Power: Why National Standards Won't Improve Education. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 396. April 26, 2001.
Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations of the House Committee on Education and the Workforce. '' Education at the Crossroads: What Works and What's Wasted
in Education Today. '' 105th Cong., 2d sess., July 17, 1998.
—Prepared by David Salisbury
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29. Special Education
Congress should
devolve responsibility for special education to the states,
eliminate federal regulations that waste resources and pit par-ents
against teachers, and refuse to turn the Individuals with Disabilities in Education Act
into an entitlement for state governments.
Since 1975, the law now known as the Individuals with Disabilities in
Education Act has promised a '' free appropriate public education'' to all
children with disabilities. Local public schools have been required to
accept all disabled students and provide them with an educational plan in
compliance with various federal procedural requirements. In return, the
act provides for some discretionary federal funding to assist school districts
in establishing programs and procedures to meet the special needs of
students with disabilities. Students with disabilities must be educated in
the '' least restrictive environment, '' meaning that they should be accommo-dated
in regular classrooms where possible.
IDEA was part of an important effort in the 1970s to end discrimination
against disabled children by states and local school districts. Disabled
students' civil rights are protected by the Equal Protection Clause and
Due Process Clause of the Constitution and by an anti-discrimination law
commonly known as Section 504. When it became clear that disabled
children were not being treated fairly under the law by public school
systems, Congress passed IDEA in an effort to provide a regulatory
framework, or process, as well as some funding to help states ensure that
disabled children would not suffer from further discrimination.
IDEA is often conflated with the constitutional rights of disabled children
by defenders of the status quo. They wrongly argue that changes to IDEA
would amount to a denial of equal protection to students with special
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needs. In fact, IDEA is a regulatory process— a mechanism— for helping
to achieve the goal of equity for disabled students. Although IDEA has
been successful in providing disabled children with greater access to public
schools, it has largely failed to ensure an appropriate education for children
with disabilities.
IDEA's Failed Dispute Resolution Model
IDEA's central failure is the complex and adversarial process required
to determine the size and nature of each disabled child's entitlement to
special services. Recognizing that the educational needs of disabled chil-dren
differ widely, the act mandates that each child's '' individual education
plan, '' or IEP, be created out of whole cloth by his or her local school
district in a series of meetings and due process procedures.
The process mandated by the statute has not only failed to achieve its
purpose of ensuring an appropriate education for each disabled child. It
also has marginalized the parents it was intended to empower and has
created a barrage of compliance-driven paperwork so overwhelming that
special educators are driven to quit the profession. Federal survey results
show that special education teachers spend between a quarter and a third
of each week on IDEA-mandated bureaucratic chores.
Worse, IDEA's adversarial nature has undermined relationships between
parents and educators, pitting parent against school in a bitter struggle over
limited resources. Because the act's procedures require savvy, aggressive
navigation, its benefits flow disproportionately to wealthy families, often
leaving lower-income children poorly served.
IDEA has also encouraged incorrect labeling of many students as learn-ing
disabled. The growth of special education can be attributed largely to
a sharp rise in the number of children categorized as learning disabled.
The number of children identified in this category grew by an extraordinary
242 percent between 1979 and 1997 (Figure 29.1). The number of children
served in all the other disability categories combined increased by only
13 percent during the same period. Today, children diagnosed as learning
disabled account for nearly 50 percent of children in special education.
Although the 1997 amendments to IDEA sought to alleviate this problem
by changing federal fiscal policy, schools will continue to overidentify
children as learning disabled as long as funds that follow a disabled child
into a school are controlled by the school rather than by the child's parents.
Under IDEA's current dispute resolution model for determining benefits,
funds received from state and federal sources for each identified child
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Figure 29.1 Number of Children in Federally Supported Programs for the
Disabled, by Category (thousands)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1976–
77
1980-
81
1985–
86
1990–
91
1995–
96
1999–
2000
Specific Learning Disability
Speech or Language Impairments
Mental Retardation
Serious Emotional Disturbance
Hearing Impairments
Orthopedic Impairments
Other Health Impairments
Visual Impairments
Multiple Disabilities
Deafness-Blindness
Autism and Other
Preschool Disabled
SOURCE: National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 2001 (Washington: U. S.
Department of Education, 2002), Table 52.
need not actually be spent on that child. If the school can identify a child
in need of few special services, that child's special education funds can
be shifted to other children with more expensive needs, or to cover the
bureaucratic costs of administering the program. Because learning disabili-ties
have no known organic basis and require fewer services than most
other types of disabilities, the label is especially ripe for abuse.
Unsurprisingly, IDEA has precipitated a financial crisis in schools. In
1977 services for disabled students accounted for 16.6 percent of total
education spending. Today the $78. 3 billion spent on special education
students at the local, state, and federal levels accounts for 21. 4 percent of
the $360.2 billion spent on elementary and secondary public education in
the United States. The number of school-age children receiving special
education services also increased during this period, from about 8.5 percent
in 1977– 78 to nearly 13 percent in 1999– 2000.
Regulatory compliance and litigation costs related to IDEA's failed
dispute resolution framework are soaking up precious resources needed for
education. For the year 1999– 2000, the American Institutes for Research
estimates that $6.7 billion was spent at the state and local levels for
'' assessment, evaluation and IEP related activities. '' Moreover, the $6.7
billion estimate does not appear to include many due process and litigation
expenses, nor does it include fee awards to successful plaintiffs' attorneys.
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Choice-Based Reform
The battle between parents and schools over each child's educational
plan must end with a decisive victory for parents in the form of portable
benefits. Special education should be reformed to allow parents to control
how their child's educational dollars are spent in the public or private
school of their choice.
Choice-based reform would improve educational outcomes by allowing
parents to choose their child's very best option, and successful schools
would be those that served parents and children well. Accompanied by
massive deregulation, thoughtful choice-based reform will free teachers
to teach and allow funds currently wasted on administration to be returned
to the classroom.
Devolution of all responsibility for special education to the states would
be optimal. If complete devolution is not immediately possible, Congress
should amend IDEA to allow states to opt into a reformed special education
system, which would eliminate the failed dispute resolution model entirely
in favor of a state-administered, largely state-funded system based on
parental choice.
A state would opt into the program by creating a matrix of disability
categories and monetary contributions designed to represent the total aver-age
cost of both general and special services required to educate a child
in each category of disability. The state would then create a menu of
special education services no less comprehensive than those currently
available in each school district and their estimated cost per child per hour
or per semester, as appropriate.
Parents in a reformed special education system would find themselves
transformed from combatants into customers. Instead of fighting each year
over educational programming, parents would be invited to their local
school to select from the menu of available special services with the advice
of special educators or anyone else the parent felt was appropriate, up to
the amount of the child's defined monetary contribution under the matrix.
Or the parent could take his or her child's total educational allowance to
a private school of choice.
Because parental choice would replace negotiation as the method of
determining a child's educational plan, Congress should exempt states
opting into a reformed system from all of the IEP and due process require-ments
of IDEA, and they should no longer be subject to civil suit under
the act. The sole remaining potential dispute in a reforming state would
be the accuracy of a child's diagnosis and, accordingly, the size of his or
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her monetary contribution. Congress should ask those states to create rules
for genuinely independent binding arbitration of disputes related to the
diagnosis of a child covered by IDEA.
The end result for a state opting for reformwould be a state-administered,
largely state-funded portable benefits plan that would avoid IDEA's
worst problems.
Choice-Based IDEA Reform Will Reduce Waste, Empower Parents
States opting for choice-based reform would each save tens of millions
of dollars, now devoted to procedural compliance, legal posturing, and
litigation. If even half of the annual $6.7 billion devoted to '' assessment,
evaluation and IEP related expenditures'' were eliminated, $3. 35 billion
could be saved nationally on those items alone. States and parents would
also save millions more on IDEA attorneys' fees and other legal expenses.
Choice-based reform will also alleviate the problem of overidentification
of children as having disabilities, a phenomenon that has contributed to
IDEA's increasing costs. By tying an agreed level of funding directly to
each disabled child, and giving each family control over how those funds
are spent, reform states will reduce any remaining tendencies of school
districts to compete for extra funds through overdiagnosis.
Choice-based reform should also be effective in increasing the quality
of education available to most disabled children. Choices are particularly
beneficial to special education students because of the variety of disability
types and because significant advances are being made in special education.
Public institutions by their nature change too slowly to keep pace with
rapidly evolving techniques and technologies in special education.
Parents have better information and better incentives than do school
districts to make optimal decisions for their children. Although parents
often lack the professional expertise of special educators, they have an
incentive to seek out the very best sources of information and advice. A
public school district will never be similarly motivated to spend weeks and
months researching educational alternatives for a single child. Accordingly,
choice-based reform should result in better educational outcomes for dis-abled
children.
Choice-based reform will also relieve parents of their current Hobson's
choice— accept an objectionable plan created by the school district or face
the financial and personal costs of a potentially years-long hearing and
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appeals process. Similarly, the elimination of the IEP and due process
regimens will free special educators from the meetings and paperwork
that have come to dominate their days, allowing them to focus once again
on teaching children.
Perhaps most critically, replacement of the dispute resolution model of
IDEA with parental choice will restore trust between parents and educators,
whose interests will no longer be misaligned. With the size of a child's
benefit no longer in question, teachers can collaborate with parents to
determine how the child's allotment might best be spent. If the two cannot
agree, the parent is welcome to find another teacher or school with which
to work. As are other consensual fiduciary relationships— doctor and
patient, attorney and client— the new teacher-parent relationship will be
built on trust, honesty, and results. Successful special educators and schools
will be those that serve parents and children well.
Congress Must Not Create an Entitlement for State Governments
State agencies are pressuring Congress to make an open-ended commit-ment
to cover 40 percent of all costs labeled '' special education'' by
states. Congress must decline to create a new federal entitlement program
for state governments.
In addition to further expanding federal influence in what should be a
state and local matter, education, an entitlement for state governments in
the form of an open-ended funding commitment would provide states
with huge incentives to expand the portion of the state educational system
designated as '' special education. '' That in turn would mean more overiden-tification
of students as disabled, one of the problems lawmakers should
be trying to solve, not worsen.
Moreover, large funding increases would be counterproductive to
state-level reform efforts, because they would discourage states from
turning down federal funds in order to escape IDEA's suffocating
regulatory compliance requirements. Congress would essentially be
bribing states to stick with IDEA's failed dispute resolution model. By
contrast, keeping the federal contribution small (recently around 15
percent of special education costs) would encourage states to reform
their special education programs individually, discarding the federal
money as not worth the compliance and litigation costs associated
with IDEA.
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Suggested Readings
American Institutes of Research. What Are We Spending on Special Education Services in the United States, 1999– 2000? Advance Report no. 1, Special Education Expenditure
Project. Washington: American Institutes of Research, March 2002. Bolick, Clint. '' A Bad IDEA Is Disabling Public Schools. '' Education Week, September
5, 2001. Finn, Chester E., et al., eds. Rethinking Special Education for a New Century. Washington:
Thomas B. Fordham Foundation and Progressive Policy Institute, 2001. Gryphon, Marie, and David Salisbury. '' Escaping IDEA: Freeing Parents, Teachers, and
Students through Deregulation and Choice. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 444, July 10, 2002.
Hettleman, Kalman R. '' Still Getting It Wrong: The Continuing Failure of Special Education in the Baltimore City Public Schools. '' Baltimore: Abell Foundation, 2002.
Kolter, Martin A. '' The Individuals with Disabilities in Education Act: A Parent's Perspective and Proposal for Change. '' University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform
27 (1994). Worth, Robert. '' The Scandal of Special Ed. '' Washington Monthly, June 1999.
—Prepared by Marie E. Gryphon
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30. Agricultural Policy
Congress should
reduce greatly the per farm subsidy cap as a first step to control
the excesses of federal agriculture subsidies; repeal the new crop price supports included in the 2002 farm
law, which are unnecessary add-ons to existing subsidy mechanisms;
phase out other crop subsidies, a process that began under
the 1996 Freedom to Farm Act; move toward a system of private insurance and use of other
financial instruments to protect farmers against market and weather fluctuations; and
eliminate federal controls that perpetuate producer cartels in
markets such as those for milk and sugar.
Reversal of the 1996 Reforms
With strong support from the Bush administration, Congress passed a
huge farm bill in 2002 that moved away from the '' Freedom to Farm''
reforms of 1996. Farm subsidies are now projected to cost taxpayers more
than $180 billion over the next decade. The costs may end up being much
higher; subsidies under the 1996 farm law were expected to cost $47
billion over seven years but ended up costing about $123 billion.
The landmark 1996 farm law aimed to move agriculture away from the
command-and-control regime in place since the 1930s. The law increased
farmers' flexibility to plant and eliminated some crop price supports. The
law was supposed to phase down subsidy levels between 1996 and 2002.
But after enactment, Congress ignored agreed-upon subsidy limits and
passed huge supplemental subsidy bills every year beginning in 1998. As
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a result, direct farm subsidies have soared to more than $20 billion per
year from an average of $9 billion per year in the early 1990s (see Figure
30.1). Since the passage of the 2002 bill, some lawmakers have already
clamored for further supplemental spending because of drought conditions
in some regions.
Politically Favored Crops
Not all farmers receive direct subsidies from the federal government.
Indeed, commodities that get federal payments account for just 36 percent
of U. S. farm production. Commodities, such as fruits and vegetables, that
are not on the federal dole account for 64 percent of U. S. farm production.
More than 90 percent of direct federal subsidies go to farmers of just five
crops— wheat, corn, soybeans, rice, and cotton.
In addition to those direct subsidies, the U. S. Department of Agriculture
runs a massive array of marketing, loan, statistical, research, and other
support programs. Also, legal restrictions and tariffs manipulate markets
for products such as sugar and dairy foods. All in all, about 70,000
employees of the USDA work on farm-related programs. No other industry
in America is so coddled.
Figure 30.1 Direct Federal Farm Subsidies, 1990– 2001
$9.3 $9.2
$7.3 $7.3 $7.5 $8.2
$13.4
$7.9
$22.9 $21.5
$20.7
$12.4
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01
Billions
of
Dollars
SOURCE: Calendar year USDA farm income data at www. ers. usda. gov/ data/ farmincome.
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The Structure of Crop Subsidies
Large-scale federal manipulations of agriculture began as '' temporary''
measures in the 1930s under the New Deal. Farm programs have flourished
ever since, despite a dramatic drop in the importance of agriculture to the
U. S. economy. Crop subsidies have usually been delivered in the form
of price supports, which create chronic problems of crop overproduction,
which necessitate other programs to control output.
Prior to 1996, the main farm subsidy program paid '' deficiency'' pay-ments
based on legislated price levels called target prices. Eligible com-modities
included major field crops, such as wheat, corn, and rice. Farmers
were paid for their base acreage in each particular crop and were stuck
producing certain crops if they wanted to get the full subsidy. To stem
overproduction, the government paid farmers not to farm on set-aside land.
The resulting absence of planting flexibility and land idling created large
'' deadweight'' economic losses or inefficiency costs. The most efficient
selection of crops was not being planted, and farmland was going unused.
Those inefficiencies provided an important justification for the 1996
reforms. At that time, a combination of high commodity prices and the
Republican takeover of Congress created support for reducing government
intervention in the farm sector under the 1996 farm law.
1996 Reforms
The centerpiece of the 1996 farm law was the replacement of price
support payments with production flexibility contracts (PFCs) that were
fixed payments decoupled from market prices. The government set total
PFC subsidy payments on a declining scale from $6 billion in 1996 to
$4 billion in 2002.
The reforms affected farmers of corn, wheat, grain sorghum, barley,
oats, cotton, and rice. Farmers of those crops were now allowed to plant
any crop they chose and their subsidy payment would be at a fixed level
decoupled from planting decisions. The new rules under the 1996 law led
to significant reductions in deadweight economic losses and allowed farm-ers
to better respond to changing market conditions.
Nonetheless, the new PFC subsidies still promote oversupply since they
increase farmer wealth and income, thus encouraging farm expansion.
Also, oversupply incentives continue under programs not reformed in
1996, such as the marketing loan program. That program was designed
to provide short-term financing to farmers before crops were sold, but it
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has morphed into another multi-billion-dollar subsidy program. Eligible
crops include corn, wheat, cotton, rice, sorghum, oats, barley, and soybeans.
The program's cost has exploded to more than $5 billion per year in
recent years.
Yet another major direct subsidy program for farmers is the conservation
reserve program (CRP), which was created to idle millions of acres of
farmland by paying farmers not to farm. The taxpayer cost of the CRP
has averaged about $1.5 billion per year. Almost one-third of land idled
under the CRP is owned by retired farmers, so many recipients do not
even have to work to get subsidies. A simpler way to reduce overproduction
and help the environment would be to eliminate all government farm
subsidies.
Welfare for the Well-to-Do
Politicians love to discuss the plight of the small farmer. Yet the bulk
of direct farm subsidies goes to the largest farms. For example, the largest
7 percent of farms received 45 percent of all farm subsidy payments in
1999. Much of the farm subsidy payout goes to individuals and companies
that clearly do not need taxpayer help. A Washington, D. C., think tank
has posted individual farm subsidy recipients on its Web page at
www. ewg. org to illustrate the unfairness of farm welfare for the well-to-do.
Farm subsidy recipients include Fortune 500 companies, members of
Congress, and millionaires such as Ted Turner.
USDA figures show that, compared with other Americans, farmers are
quite well off. The average farm household income was $61,947 in 2000,
which is 8.6 percent higher than the average U. S. household income of
$57,045. Commercial farms, as defined by the USDA, get about half of
all farm subsidies, had average household incomes of $118,450 in 2000,
and received an average subsidy of $43,379. So even if one accepts the
notion that the government should redistribute wealth from rich to poor,
farm subsidies do the reverse by giving taxpayer money to those with
above-average incomes.
2002 Farm Bill— Taxpayers Take Bipartisan Beating
The 2002 farm bill is expected to cost taxpayers more than $180 billion
in subsidy costs over the next 10 years. The ultimate taxpayer cost will
be higher if Congress doles out further supplemental spending.
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Aside from the taxpayer costs, the 2002 farm bill reverses progress
made in 1996 toward reducing agriculture market distortions by introducing
new price supports. Experts widely agree that price supports are counterpro-ductive.
Indeed, the USDA noted in a major report in September 2001
that '' government attempts to hold prices above those determined by
commercial markets have simply made matters worse time after time''
by encouraging unneeded output and inflating land prices. Nonetheless,
the president signed into law the 2002 farm bill, which added a new price
support, or '' countercyclical, '' program to provide big subsidies when
prices are low. In addition, the marketing loan program, which also acts
as a price support, was expanded in the 2002 bill to cover chickpeas,
lentils, dry peas, honey, wool, and mohair.
The 2002 bill also retains the multi-billion-dollar PFC subsidy program.
The intent of the PFC program introduced in 1996 was to gradually wean
farmers fromsubsidies. Instead, the 2002 farm bill simply turns the program
into yet another long-term handout.
Many other agricultural products received continued support under the
new farm bill. Protectionist sugar measures that cost consumers billions
of dollars are kept in place. Complex milk supports and regulations are
retained, and an additional National Dairy Program is created that will
cost taxpayers millions more dollars. The quota system for peanuts is
being bought out at great taxpayer expense, and peanut farmers are now
eligible for direct subsidies under other farm programs.
A final taxpayer insult of the 2002 bill was the audacious defense of
the law after enactment in a glossy full-color booklet titled '' The Facts
on U. S. Farm Policy, '' published by the House Agriculture Committee.
The propaganda piece attacks the '' myths'' of people who dared question
the bill. Throughout the booklet are pictures of famous Americans from
Thomas Jefferson to Ronald Reagan with assorted quotes meant to imply
that these great men would have supported the profligate farm bill.
Repealing Farm Subsidies Is Economically and Politically Feasible
Despite the reversal in 2002, farm reform efforts will return because
economic reality always intrudes on the best-laid plans of the central
planners. During the debate over the 2002 farm bill, Sen. Richard Lugar
(R-Ind.) offered an interesting alternative to the current system. His plan
would have phased out current subsidies and replaced them with a voucher
system promoting reliance on insurance and other financial instruments.
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While Lugar's reforms would not go far enough, they indicate that with
some innovative thinking and political courage Congress may eventually
come around to real reforms.
The experience of New Zealand in the 1980s shows that complete
subsidy removal makes sense economically and politically. In 1984 New
Zealand's Labour government took the dramatic step of ending all farm
subsidies. That was a remarkably bold policy action since New Zealand's
economy is roughly five times more dependent on farming than is the
U. S. economy.
Subsidy elimination in New Zealand was swift and sure. There was no
extended phaseout of farm payments, as was promised under U. S. reforms
in 1996. Although the plan was initially met with massive protests, the
subsidies were ended and New Zealand farming has never been healthier.
The value of farm output in New Zealand has soared since subsidies were
repealed, and farm productivity has grown strongly.
Forced to adjust to new economic realities, New Zealand farmers cut
costs, diversified their land use, sought nonfarm income, and altered pro-duction
as market signals advised. As a report by the Federated Farmers
of New Zealand noted, the country's experience '' thoroughly debunked
the myth that the farming sector cannot prosper without government
subsidies. '' Reformers in Congress should continue working to eventually
debunk that myth in this country.
Suggested Readings
Edwards, Chris, and Tad DeHaven. '' Farm Reform Reversal. '' Cato Institute Tax & Budget Bulletin no. 2, March 2002.
. '' Farm Subsidies at Record Levels As Congress Considers New Farm Bill. '' Cato Institute Briefing Paper no. 70, October 18, 2001.
Federated Farmers of New Zealand. '' Life after Subsidies. '' www. fedfarm. org. nz/ homepage. html.
McNew, Kevin. '' Milking the Sacred Cow: A Case for Eliminating the Federal Dairy Program. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 362, December 1, 1999.
Orden, David. '' Reform's Stunted Crop. '' Regulation 25, no. 1 (Spring 2002). Orden, David, Robert Paarlberg, and Terry Roe. Policy Reform in American Agriculture:
Analysis and Prognosis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1999.
—Prepared by Chris Edwards and Tad DeHaven
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31. Cultural Agencies
Congress should
eliminate the National Endowment for the Arts,
eliminate the National Endowment for the Humanities, and
defund the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
In a society that constitutionally limits the powers of government and
maximizes individual liberty, there is no justification for the forcible
transfer of money from taxpayers to artists, scholars, and broadcasters. If
the proper role of government is to safeguard the security of the nation's
residents, by what rationale are they made to support exhibits of paintings,
symphony orchestras, documentaries, scholarly research, and radio and
television programs they might never freely choose to support? The kinds
of things financed by federal cultural agencies were produced long before
those agencies were created, and they will continue to be produced long
after those agencies are privatized or defunded. Moreover, the power to
subsidize art, scholarship, and broadcasting cannot be found within the
powers enumerated and delegated to the federal government under the
Constitution.
The National Endowment for the Arts, an '' independent'' agency estab-lished
in 1965, makes grants to museums, symphony orchestras, and
individual artists '' of exceptional talent'' and organizations (including state
arts agencies) to '' encourage individual and institutional development of
the arts, preservation of the American artistic heritage, wider availability
of the arts, leadership in the arts, and the stimulation of non-Federal
sources of support for the Nation's artistic activities. '' Among its more
famous and controversial grant recipients were artist Andres Serrano,
whose exhibit featured a photograph of a plastic crucifix in a jar of
his own urine, and the Institute of Contemporary Art in Philadelphia,
which sponsored a traveling exhibition of the late Robert Mapplethorpe's
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homoerotic photographs. (Thanks to an NEA grantee, the American tax-payers
once paid $1, 500 for a poem, '' lighght. '' That wasn't the title or
a typo. That was the entire poem.) The NEA's fiscal 2002 budget was
$115 million, back up after modest cuts by the 104th and 105th Congresses.
The National Endowment for the Humanities, with a fiscal year 2002
budget of $124.5 million, '' funds activities that are intended to improve
the quality of education and teaching in the humanities, to strengthen the
scholarly foundation for humanities study and research, and to advance
understanding of the humanities among general audiences. '' Among the
things it has funded are controversial national standards for the teaching
of history in schools, the traveling King Tut exhibit, and the documentary
film Rosie the Riveter.
The 35-year-old Corporation for Public Broadcasting— FY02 budget,
$350 million— provides money to '' qualified public television and radio
stations to be used at their discretion for purposes related primarily to
program production and acquisition. '' It also supports the production and
acquisition of radio and television programs for national distribution and
assists in '' the financing of several system-wide activities, including
national satellite interconnection services and the payment of music royalty
fees, and provides limited technical assistance, research, and planning
services to improve system-wide capacity and performance. '' Some of
the money provided local public radio and television stations is used to
help support National Public Radio and the Public Broadcasting Service.
Note that the amount of arts funding in the federal budget is quite small.
That might be taken as a defense of the funding, were it not for the
important reasons to avoid any government funding of something as
intimate yet powerful as artistic expression. But it should also be noted
how small federal funding is as a percentage of the total arts budget in
this country. The NEA's budget is about 1 percent of the $11.5 billion
contributed to the arts by private corporations, foundations, and individuals
in 1996. According to the American Arts Alliance, the nonprofit arts are
a $53 billion industry. Surely they will survive without whatever portion
of the NEA's budget gets out of the Washington bureaucracy and into
the hands of actual artists or arts institutions. Indeed, when the NEA
budget was cut in 1995, private giving to the arts rose dramatically.
The 104th Congress voted to phase out the NEA over three years.
The 108th Congress should revive that commitment and also end federal
involvement with the National Endowment for the Humanities and the
Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
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Poor Subsidize Rich
Since art museums, symphony orchestras, humanities scholarship, and
public television and radio are enjoyed predominantly by people of greater-than-
average income and education, the federal cultural agencies oversee
a fundamentally unfair transfer of wealth from the lower classes up. It's
no accident that you hear ads for Remy Martin and '' private banking
services'' on NPR, not for Budweiser and free checking accounts. News-week
columnist Robert J. Samuelson is correct when he calls federal
cultural agencies '' highbrow pork barrel. '' As Edward C. Banfield has
written, '' The art public is now, as it has always been, overwhelmingly
middle and upper-middle class and above average in income— relatively
prosperous people who would probably enjoy art about as much in the
absence of subsidies. '' Supporters of the NEA often say that their purpose
is to bring the finer arts to those who don't already patronize them. But
Dick Netzer, an economist who favors arts subsidies, conceded that they
have '' failed to increase the representation of low-income people in audi-ences.
'' In other words, lower-income people are not interested in the
kind of entertainment they're forced to support; they prefer to put their
money into forms of art often sneered at by the cultural elite. Why must
they continue to finance the pleasures of the affluent?
Corruption of Artists and Scholars
Government subsidies to the arts and humanities have an insidious,
corrupting effect on artists and scholars. It is assumed, for example, that
the arts need government encouragement. But if an artist needs such
encouragement, what kind of artist is he? Novelist E. L. Doctorow once
told the House Appropriations Committee, '' An enlightened endowment
puts its money on largely unknown obsessive individuals who have sacri-ficed
all the ordinary comforts and consolations of life in order to do their
work. '' Few have noticed the contradiction in that statement. As author
Bill Kauffman has commented, Doctorow '' wants to abolish the risk and
privation that dog almost all artists, particularly during their apprentice-ships.
'Starving artists' are to be plumped up by taxpayers.... Thelikeli-hood
that pampered artists will turn complacent, listless, and lazy seems
not to bother Doctorow. '' Moreover, as Jonathan Yardley, the Washington
Post's book critic, asked, '' Why should the struggling young artist be
entitled to government subsidy when the struggling young mechanic or
accountant is not? ''
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Politicizing Culture
James D. Wolfensohn, former chairman of the Kennedy Center for the
Performing Arts, decried talk about abolishing the NEA. '' We should not
allow [the arts] to become political, '' he said. But it is the subsidies that
have politicized the arts and scholarship, not the talk about ending them.
Some artists and scholars are to be awarded taxpayers' money. Which
artists and scholars? They can't all be subsidized. The decisions are ulti-mately
made by bureaucrats (even if they are advised by artists and
scholars). Whatever criteria the bureaucrats use, they politicize art and
scholarship. As novelist George Garrett has said: '' Once (and whenever)
the government is involved in the arts, then it is bound to be a political
and social business, a battle between competing factions. The NEA, by
definition, supports the arts establishment. '' Adds painter Laura Main,
'' Relying on the government to sponsor art work . . . is to me no more
than subjecting yourself to the fate of a bureaucratic lackey. ''
Mary Beth Norton, a writer of women's history and a former member
of the National Council on the Humanities, argues that '' one of the great
traditions of the Endowment [for the Humanities] is that this is where
people doing research in new and exciting areas— oral history, black
history, women's history to name areas I am familiar with— can turn to
for funding. '' When the NEH spent less money in the mid-1980s than
previously, Norton complained, '' Now, people on the cutting edge are
not being funded anymore. '' But if bureaucrats are ultimately selecting
the research to be funded, how cutting-edge can it really be? How can
they be trusted to distinguish innovation from fad? And who wants scholars
choosing the objects of their research on the basis of what will win favor
with government grant referees?
Similar criticism can be leveled against the radio and television programs
financed by the CPB. They tend (with a few exceptions) to be aimed at
the wealthier and better educated, and the selection process is inherently
political. Moreover, some of the money granted to local stations is passed
on to National Public Radio and the Public Broadcasting Service for the
production of news programs, including All Things Considered and the
Newshour with Jim Lehrer. Why are the taxpayers in a free society
compelled to support news coverage, particularly when it is inclined in a
statist direction? Robert Coonrod, president of CPB, defends his organiza-tion,
saying that '' about 90 percent of the federal appropriation goes back
to the communities, to public radio and TV stations, which are essentially
community institutions. '' Only 90 percent? Why not leave 100 percent
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in the communities and let the residents decide how to spend it? Since
only 13 percent of public broadcasting revenues now come from the
federal government, other sources presumably could take up the slack if
the federal government ended the appropriation.
It must be pointed out that the fundamental objection to the federal
cultural agencies is not that their products have been intellectually, morally,
politically, or sexually offensive to conservatives or even most Americans.
That has sometimes, but not always, been the case. Occasionally, such as
during the bicentennial of the U. S. Constitution, the agencies have been
used to subsidize projects favored by conservatives. The brief against
those agencies would be the same had the money been used exclusively
to subsidize works inoffensive or even inspiring to the majority of the
American people.
The case also cannot be based on how much the agencies spend. In
FY02 the two endowments and the CPB were appropriated about $590
million total, a mere morsel in a $2 trillion federal budget. (Total federal
support for the arts— ranging from military bands to Education Department
programs to the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts— amounts to
$2 billion, not a minuscule amount. Congress should critically review all
of those expenditures in light of the lack of constitutional authority for
such programs, the burden they place on taxpayers, and the principle of
subsidiarity or federalism.) The NEA's budget is about 0.2 percent of the
total amount spent on the nonprofit arts in the United States.
No, the issue is neither the content of the work subsidized nor the
expense. Taxpayer subsidy of the arts, scholarship, and broadcasting is
inappropriate because it is outside the range of the proper functions of
government, and as such it needlessly politicizes, and therefore corrupts,
an area of life that should be left untainted by politics.
Government funding of anything involves government control. That
insight, of course, is part of our folk wisdom: '' He who pays the piper
calls the tune. '' '' Who takes the king's shilling sings the king's song. ''
Defenders of arts funding seem blithely unaware of this danger when
they praise the role of the national endowments as an imprimatur or seal
of approval on artists and arts groups. Former NEA chair Jane Alexander
said: '' The Federal role is small but very vital. We are a stimulus for
leveraging state, local and private money. We are a linchpin for the puzzle
of arts funding, a remarkably efficient way of stimulating private money. ''
Drama critic Robert Brustein asks, '' How could the NEA be 'privatized'
and still retain its purpose as a funding agency functioning as a stamp of
approval for deserving art? ''
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The politicization of whatever the federal cultural agencies touch was
driven home by Richard Goldstein, a supporter of the NEH. Goldstein
pointed out:
The NEH has a ripple effect on university hiring and tenure, and on the
kinds of research undertaken by scholars seeking support. Its chairman
shapes the bounds of that support. In a broad sense, he sets standards that
affect the tenor of textbooks and the content of curricula.... Though no
chairman of the NEH can single-handedly direct the course of American
education, he can nurture the nascent trends and take advantage of informal
opportunities to signal department heads and deans. He can '' persuade''
with the cudgel of federal funding out of sight but hardly out of mind.
The cudgel (an apt metaphor) of federal funding has the potential to
be wielded to influence those who run the universities with regard to
hiring, tenure, research programs, textbooks, curricula. That is an enormous
amount of power to have vested in a government official. Surely, it is
the kind of concentration of power that the Founding Fathers intended
to thwart.
Separation of Conscience and State
We might reflect on why the separation of church and state seems such
a wise idea to Americans. First, it is wrong for the coercive authority of
the state to interfere in matters of individual conscience. If we have rights,
if we are individual moral agents, we must be free to exercise our judgment
and define our own relationship with God. That doesn't mean that a free,
pluralistic society won't have lots of persuasion and proselytizing— no
doubt it will— but it does mean that such proselytizing must remain entirely
persuasive, entirely voluntary.
Second, social harmony is enhanced by removing religion from the
sphere of politics. Europe suffered through the Wars of Religion, as
churches made alliances with rulers and sought to impose their theology
on everyone in a region. Religious inquisitions, Roger Williams said, put
towns '' in an uproar. '' If people take their faith seriously, and if government
is going to make one faith universal and compulsory, then people must
contend bitterly— even to the death— to make sure that the true faith is
established. Enshrine religion in the realm of persuasion, and there may
be vigorous debate in society, but there won't be political conflict— and
people can deal with one another in secular life without endorsing the
private opinions of their colleagues.
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Third, competition produces better results than subsidy, protection, and
conformity. '' Free trade in religion'' is the best tool humans have to find
the nearest approximation to the truth. Businesses coddled behind subsidies
and tariffs will be weak and uncompetitive, and so will churches, syna-gogues,
mosques, and temples. Religions that are protected from political
interference but are otherwise on their own are likely to be stronger and
more vigorous than a church that draws its support from government.
If those statements are true, they have implications beyond religion.
Religion is not the only thing that affects us personally and spiritually,
and it is not the only thing that leads to cultural wars. Art also expresses,
transmits, and challenges our deepest values. As the managing director
of Baltimore's Center Stage put it: '' Art has power. It has the power to
sustain, to heal, to humanize . . . to change something in you. It's a
frightening power, and also a beautiful power. . . . And it's essential to a
civilized society. '' Because art is so powerful, because it deals with such
basic human truths, we dare not entangle it with coercive government
power. That means no censorship or regulation of art. It also means no
tax-funded subsidies for arts and artists, for when government gets into
the arts funding business, we get political conflicts. Conservatives
denounce the National Endowment for the Arts for funding erotic photogra-phy
and the Public Broadcasting System for broadcasting Tales of the
City, which has gay characters. (More Tales of the City, which appeared
on Showtime after PBS ducked the political pressure, generated little
political controversy.) Civil rights activists make the Library of Congress
take down an exhibit on antebellum slave life, and veterans' groups pres-sure
the Smithsonian to remove a display on the bombing of Hiroshima.
To avoid political battles over how to spend the taxpayers' money, to
keep art and its power in the realm of persuasion, we would be well
advised to establish the separation of art and state.
Suggested Readings
Banfield, Edward C. The Democratic Muse. New York: Basic Books, 1984.
Boaz, David. '' The Separation of Art and the State. '' Vital Speeches, June 15, 1995. www. cato. org/ speeches/ sp-as53. html.
Cowen, Tyler. In Praise of Commercial Culture. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1998.
Gillespie, Nick. '' All Culture, All the Time. '' Reason, April 1999.
Grampp, William. Pricing the Priceless. New York: Basic Books, 1984.
Kauffman, Bill. '' Subsidies to the Arts: Cultivating Mediocrity. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 137, August 8, 1990.
Kostelanetz, Richard. '' The New Benefactors. '' Liberty, January 1990.
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Lynes, Russell. '' The Case against Government Aid to the Arts. '' New York Times Magazine, March 25, 1962.
Samuelson, Robert J. '' Highbrow Pork Barrel. '' Newsweek, August 21, 1989. Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations of the House Committee on Education
and the Workforce. The Healthy State of the Arts in America and the Continuing Failure of the National Endowment for the Arts. 105th Cong., 1st sess., September
23, 1997. Serial no. 105-A.
—Prepared by Sheldon Richman and David Boaz
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32. Privatization
Congress should
privatize Amtrak by selling the passenger rail service, including
operations, maintenance, stations, rails, and trains, as a single unit and ending all federal subsidies;
privatize air traffic control by moving all operations to a private
nonprofit corporation similar to Canada's; expand the opt-out program for federal airport security to cover
more airports; allow airport operators in the opt-out program to hire security employees directly or to contract out for security
services; and monitor all airport screening operations to make possible performance comparisons;
privatize federal electric utilities by selling the Tennessee Valley
Authority and the four power marketing administrations to pri-vate investors;
support competitive outsourcing by embracing the Bush admin-istration's
management reforms and adopting the Commercial Activities Panel's recommendations on federal contracting; and
hasten privatization of military support services by allowing
private operation of the entire military housing inventory, accel-erating military utilities privatization, and giving the Pentagon
more flexibility in the contracting-out process.
Amtrak
For 30 years, Amtrak has provided second-rate passenger rail service
to Americans at higher-than-competitive costs while consuming more than
$25 billion in federal subsidies. Today, Amtrak passengers pay a higher
fare per mile than the average airline or bus passenger— and that is on
top of all the taxpayer costs.
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Against the backdrop of rail privatization in numerous foreign countries,
Congress created the Amtrak Reform Council in 1997 to study major rail
reforms. One ARC goal was to assess whether Amtrak could break even
by the end of 2002 with fares covering operating costs. In December
2001, ARC issued a finding that Amtrak could not meet that target.
ARC then developed reform plans that would end Amtrak's monopoly
on passenger service, spin off its Northeast Corridor infrastructure, and
permit states and private entities to bid for Amtrak routes.
Around the world, momentum for rail privatization is strong, although
there have been a few setbacks. For example, Railtrack, the private owner
of British Rail's infrastructure (track and stations), went bankrupt. But
big mistakes were made in the structure of British reforms. British Rail
privatization involved the separation of infrastructure from newly created
private train operating companies. As it turned out, the operating companies
were so successful at increasing passenger and freight volume (up 26
percent and 34 percent, respectively, in four years) that traffic overwhelmed
Railtrack's infrastructure. The infrastructure had suffered decades of low
investment under government ownership. Because 90 percent of Rail-track's
revenue came from fixed charges, it had little incentive to expand
capacity to meet the new demands.
The fatal flaw in Railtrack's privatization was the separation of track
from operations. Most countries that have privatized their rail systems,
including Argentina, Australia, Japan, and New Zealand, have maintained
vertical integration in the rail system (sometimes with separate regional
companies). Australia recently sold two more such regional vertically
integrated rail units. The Japanese government plans to sell its remaining
stakes in three privatized railroad firms: JR East (of which it still owns
13 percent), JR West (32 percent), and JR Tokai (40 percent). The German
government is dropping plans to separate track from train operations as
it prepares to privatize Deutsche Bahn by 2005.
The United States should not fall behind the worldwide trend of rail
privatization. Amtrak should be sold as a single unit including operations,
maintenance, stations, rails, and trains. Americans deserve better rail ser-vice
than the government has provided, and taxpayers deserve an end to
federal subsidies.
Air Traffic Control
President Bush was right in saying that air traffic control (ATC) is not
'' an inherently governmental function'' when he signed Executive Order
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13180. That order is a first step toward ATC privatization in that it sets
up a performance-based federal ATC agency.
During the past 15 years, nearly two dozen countries have partly or
fully privatized ATC services. Some, such as Germany, have created self-supporting
government corporations for ATC. Others, such as Canada,
have created fully private nonprofit corporations. Canada's reforms provide
an excellent model for future U. S. reforms. Nav Canada was set up in
1996 to take over all Canadian ATC responsibilities. As a nonprofit
company, it has a board of directors made up of various aviation stakehold-ers.
It is fully self-supporting from fees and charges paid by aviation users.
The new Canadian system has received rave reviews for investing in the
newest technology and substantially reducing air congestion.
In Britain, ATC has been moved to the National Air Traffic Services
company. NATS has a public-private corporate structure with 46 percent
of shares owned by the Airline Group (a consortium of the U. K. 's main
airlines), 49 percent of shares owned by the government, and 5 percent
of shares owned by employees. Like Canada's system, NATS is self-supporting
from fees and charges.
The cutbacks in air travel following the terrorist attacks in 2001 have
created challenges for the privatized ATC corporations. But Nav Canada
and NATS have responded nimbly by reducing costs and postponing new
expansion projects. Meanwhile, the U. S. government's ATC in the Federal
Aviation Administration has done just the opposite. In response to falling
traffic, it has requested more money from Congress.
The United States should be a leader rather than a follower in air traffic
control, especially given this country's remarkable legacy of aviation
innovation during the past century. Privatized ATC can help reduce trans-portation
congestion, increase cost efficiencies, and provide Americans
with greater safety by speeding the adoption of new technologies.
Opt-Out Program for Federal Airport Security
The federal takeover of airport passenger screening was a big mistake
and has run into serious troubles. After the terrorist attacks in 2001,
legislation was passed allowing the new Transportation Security Adminis-tration
to take over screening of passengers and baggage at all 429 U. S.
commercial airports. The TSA needs to hire and train 33,000 passenger
screeners and 21,600 baggage screeners. The huge hiring demands have
created large problems.
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To ease the problems, a modest pilot program that allows some airports
to opt out of the new government-run passenger screening system should
be expanded. In enacting the new airport security legislation, Congress
compromised between the Senate's bill, which called for 100 percent
federal screening, and the House bill, which would have left to each airport
director the decision of whether to use federal workers or outside security
firms. The compromise permitted five airports to opt out of federal security
as of November 2002 and allowed other airports to opt out as of Novem-ber
2004.
A significant expansion of the initial pilot program is needed for a
number of reasons. First, five airports with private screening are a sample
far too small to provide good comparisons between private and government
screening. Allowing at least 40 airports to opt out would provide far better
comparative information. Second, the more airports that opt to use private
contractors, the smaller the workforce that TSA needs to recruit and train.
Judging by the high demand of airports to get one of the five initial opt-out
chances, a large share of all U. S. airports would choose to opt out if
allowed to.
Airports have important reasons for wanting to opt out of government-run
screening. One is the possibility of obtaining a higher-quality work-force.
For example, New York's JFK International Airport applied for the
opt-out program with a proposal calling for screening by a security firm
staffed by retired law enforcement officers— people with experience in
explosives, weapons, interrogation, and crowd control. Unfortunately,
JFK's proposal was turned down.
Another reason cited by airport directors for favoring private contractors
is greater staffing flexibility. For example, flight activity levels at airports
often change rapidly. Unless the passenger screening system can quickly
staff up and down in response, there are unacceptable delays in screening
passengers.
The United States has nationalized its airport screening, but European
airports have successfully used private contractors for years. Nearly all
large airports in Europe and Israel (32 of 34) have shifted from civil
service workers for passenger and baggage screening to private security
firms in the past decade. In those countries, the government sets training
and performance standards and provides strong oversight of private con-tractors.
By contrast, prior to September 11, 2001, U. S. airports generally
used low-bid contractors for passenger screening instead of focusing on
quality service.
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Congress should also think further about the government's longer-term
role once all airports are allowed to opt out in November 2004. Europe's
experience suggests that airport security works best under a unified
approach controlled by the airport director. That differs from the new U. S.
approach, which has some parts of security under TSA and other parts
under airport responsibility. Note also that a clear conflict of interest exists
in having the TSA be both a provider of airport security and the airport
security regulator.
After 2004, TSA should focus only on standard setting and regulatory
oversight, and airports should adopt privatized security. The TSA has
ample time before 2004 to fine-tune standards and procedures and to
train a high-quality airport screening workforce. That workforce would
eventually go to work for airports, either directly as employees or indirectly
as employees of qualified screening contractors hired by airports.
Federal Electric Utilities
The federal government is the nation's largest electric power organiza-tion,
as owner and manager of the Tennessee Valley Authority and four
power marketing administrations (PMAs), which have operations that span
much of the country outside the Northeast. These electricity businesses,
along with federally subsidized cooperative and municipal utilities, are
poorly managed and out of step with the new environment of electricity
competition.
Government-owned electric power generation originally had two justifi-cations.
First, it was thought that private electricity companies would
not find enough profit in electrifying rural America, thus requiring that
government step in and serve those areas. Second, it was thought that
government could provide power to consumers at lower prices than could
private companies because it could set prices '' at cost'' without worrying
about profit margins.
The first justification is now irrelevant because rural America has been
thoroughly electrified. Moreover, 60 percent of rural America is served
by investor-owned utilities. The second justification— that government
power would be cheap— was socialist pie-in-the-sky thinking. Government
electricity generation has proven to be more costly than private generation.
The United States lags behind other countries in freeing itself from
government-owned power generation. Indeed, between 1990 and 1999 the
value of worldwide electric utility privatization was $65 billion, according
to Reason Foundation figures. Major countries, such as Australia, Britain,
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Canada, and Germany, have launched electricity privatization programs
in recent years.
Other countries have privatized electricity for numerous reasons. One
reason has been to improve the efficiency and performance of backward
electric power systems. Another reason is that countries have sought to
raise funds to reduce government budget deficits. Both objectives are
applicable to the United States. In 1996, the Clinton administration did
propose privatizing the PMAs, but Congress and various anti-reform
groups shot down the proposal.
The sale of all the federal power enterprises could raise between $20
billion and $35 billion to help reduce the federal deficit. The Clinton plan
was estimated to bring in between about $3 billion and $9 billion. The
Congressional Budget Office has estimated that sale of the three smallest
PMAs and related hydropower assets would bring in from $8 billion to
$11 billion. Sale of the Bonneville Power Administration would bring in
about $9 billion. The former head of the TVA estimates that that utility
could sell for as much as $10.5 billion.
Government-owned power generation is a throwback to early 20th-century
thinking that governments could operate business enterprises in
a cost-effective and high-quality manner. Few economists believe that
today, and it is time for the U. S. government to catch up to electricity
reforms made in other countries to establish private competitive electricity
systems for the 21st century.
Federal Competitive Outsourcing
A major fiscal theme of the Bush administration is reform of the federal
bureaucracy to make it work more efficiently. As part of that agenda, the
administration is promoting the contracting out of many federal functions
to private companies. Indeed, surveys of private companies have found that
firms are seeing substantial increases in revenue from federal contracting in
recent years. In addition to the Bush initiatives, earlier legislation, including
the 1994 Federal Acquisition Streamlining Act and the 1998 Federal
Activities Inventory Reform Act, helped increase the level of outsourcing.
As legislation has removed barriers to outsourcing, agency demand for
outsourcing has grown as staffing challenges have increased. For example,
federal spending on information technology is expected to continue climb-ing.
Yet many federal technology workers are expected to retire in coming
years, thus creating difficulty in continuing to provide technology services
in-house. As a result, outsourcing will likely grow in importance.
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The Bush administration is promoting ambitious goals for federal out-sourcing.
The administration plans to have agencies competing 15 percent
of all positions by 2004 and 20 percent per year after that. Under the FAIR
act, agencies in 2001 identified about 850,000 positions as commercial in
nature and possibly subject to outsourcing. President Bush's ultimate goal is
to have agencies put half of those jobs to competition with private providers.
Both the FAIR act and the government's process for outsourcing (under
Office of Management and Budget Circular A-76) have been controversial.
The General Accounting Office has convened a panel to examine outsourc-ing
in general and Circular A-76 and FAIR in particular. The Commercial
Activities Panel held a series of hearings in 2001 and provided recommen-dations
to Congress in May 2002. The recommendations strongly sup-ported
continued emphasis on contracting out.
The president's outsourcing goals do face numerous hurdles. Many
agencies have been slow to embrace the challenge. For example, in January
2002 the Department of Defense announced that it would halt all competi-tions
of its workforce. But soon after, the DoD said that it was back on
board with a plan to outsource roughly 70,000 jobs over the next two years.
Congress should strongly support the administration's goal of reforming the
federal workforce.
Privatization of Military Support Services
Military Housing
Recent efforts have sought to make military service more attractive. At
the top of the list of needed reforms is improved housing. In 1996, the
Department of Defense identified about 177,000 of its 290,000 family
housing units as inadequate. Initial estimates suggested that it would take
30 years to fix the housing problem using traditional military construction.
In a reform spirit, Congress passed new laws to enable DoD to use private-sector
financing and expertise for housing. As a result, DoD believes that
it will have all military families adequately housed by 2008— more than
a decade and a half sooner and more inexpensively than would have been
possible using standard methods.
The fiscal year 1996 defense authorization act granted DoD broad
flexibility to work with the private sector to build and renovate military
housing. The DoD could obtain private capital to leverage government
dollars and to enter into limited partnerships with private developers to
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construct, renovate, and maintain housing. Among other benefits, the new
flexibility allows DoD to deal with variations in local real estate markets.
Fort Carson in Colorado is DoD's largest privatization effort so far,
and it is the first installation to fully privatize all its on-post housing. In
1999, Fort Carson Family Housing, LLC, assumed the operation and
maintenance of 1,823 family housing units. The company agreed to reno-vate
those units by 2005 and to build 840 new units by 2004. The company
will own, operate, and maintain all housing on Fort Carson for at least
the next 50 years. Fort Carson is being heralded as a big success, and
privatization is being seen as a good way to quickly and permanently fix
military housing problems.
Other military housing upgrades being performed by the private sector
include those at the naval station in Everett, Washington, Camp Pendleton
in California, and Elmenorf Air Force Base in Arkansas. Estimates show
that all those projects will cut construction costs substantially and save
federal taxpayers millions of dollars.
Military Utilities
As part of the FY98 defense authorization act, Congress passed a
military utilities privatization initiative. The law allowed military services
to enter into agreements with private utilities for service provision and to
retain any cost savings realized. Those reforms were prompted after
reviews found that DoD was wasting millions of dollars on utilities that
were obsolete and unreliable.
The U. S. military currently has about 2,700 electric, gas, water, and
wastewater systems on bases. About 1,000 of those are leased fromcontrac-tors,
owned by utility companies, or must be operated by the military for
security reasons. As of 2002, only 29 of the other 1,700 systems had been
privatized. The effort has been delayed by the complexity of privatization,
the deregulation of the electric industry, and the California energy crisis.
Also, the military has been releasing too many requests for proposals
simultaneously, thus overwhelming contractors who can bid on only so
many projects at a time. The original plan was to have privatized about
1,600 utilities by September 2003, but that goal has proved to be too
optimistic.
More flexibility needs to be added to the process. Some observers argue
that the slow pace of contracting has resulted from unattractive bids. But
DoD should be able to look beyond initial bid costs and evaluate long-term
benefits from enhanced operational qualities of private utility systems.
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Also, new guidelines should allow the different military services to take
different approaches to privatization. Privatization of functions that have
always been performed by the government can be a learning experience,
but the large potential benefits are well worth the hard efforts.
Suggested Readings
Bacon, R. W., and J. Besant-Jones. '' Global Electric Power Reform: Privatization and Liberalization of the Electric Power Industry in Developing Countries. '' Annual
Review of Energy and Environment (2001): 331– 59, http:// energy. annualreviews. org.
Butler, Viggo, and Robert W. Poole Jr. '' Rethinking Checked-Baggage Screening. '' Reason Public Policy Institute Policy Study no. 297, July 2002.
Poole, Robert W. Jr. '' Replacing Amtrak: A Blueprint for Sustainable Passenger Rail Service. '' Reason Public Policy Institute Policy Study no. 235, October 1997.
. '' Revisiting Federalized Passenger Screening. '' Reason Public Policy Institute Policy Study no. 298, August 2002.
Poole, Robert W. Jr., and Viggo Butler. '' How to Commercialize Air Traffic Control. '' Reason Public Policy Institute Policy Study no. 278, February 2001.
U. S. Department of Defense, Office of the Deputy Undersecretary for Installations and Environ-ment. Utilities privatization website, www. acq. osd. mil/ ie/ utilities/ privatization. htm.
U. S. Department of Defense, Office of the Undersecretary for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics. Military housing privatization website, www. defenselink. mil/ acq/
installation/ hrso. U. S. General Accounting Office. '' Federal Power: The Role of the Power Marketing
Administrations in a Restructured Electricity Industry. '' GAO report AIMD-99-229, June 24, 1999.
Vranich, Joseph, and Edward L. Hudgins. '' Help Passenger Rail by Privatizing Amtrak. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 419, November 1, 2001.
—Prepared by Geoffrey F. Segal
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33. Corporate Welfare
Congress should
end programs that provide direct grants to businesses,
end programs that provide marketing and other commercial
services to businesses, end programs that provide subsidized loans and insurance to
businesses, eliminate foreign trade barriers that try to protect U. S. industries
from foreign competition at the expense of U. S. consumers, eliminate domestic regulatory barriers that favor particular com-panies
with monopoly power against competitors, and create financial transparency with a detailed listing in the fed-eral
budget of companies that received direct business subsi-dies and the amounts received.
In fiscal year 2002, the federal government spent about $93 billion on
programs that subsidize businesses. There have been numerous efforts to
cut these wasteful and unfair uses of taxpayer money, but total corporate
welfare spending keeps rising. A serious attempt was made after the
Republicans took control of both houses of Congress in the 1990s to
eliminate corporate welfare, but those efforts met with few successes.
The Bush administration has promised a renewed attack on corporate
welfare. Indeed, Budget Director Mitch Daniels stated that it was '' not
the federal government's role to subsidize, sometimes deeply subsidize,
private interests. '' While taxpayers wait for reforms, the government con-tinues
to subsidize private interests directly through such programs as aid
to farmers and subsidized loans for exporters. And private interests continue
to receive billions of dollars of indirect subsidies through programs such
as those for federal energy research. With the federal budget again in
deficit by more than $100 billion, corporate welfare is the perfect place
to start cutting excess spending.
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What Is Corporate Welfare?
Corporate welfare consists of government programs that provide unique
benefits or advantages to specific companies or industries. Corporate wel-fare
includes programs that provide direct grants to businesses, programs
that provide indirect commercial support to businesses, and programs that
provide subsidized loans and insurance.
Many corporate welfare programs provide useful services to private
industry, such as insurance, statistics, research, loans, and marketing sup-port.
Those are all functions that many industries in the private sector do
for themselves. If the commercial activities of government are useful and
efficient, then private markets should be able to support them without
subsidies.
In addition to spending programs, corporate welfare includes barriers
to trade that attempt to protect U. S. industries from foreign competition
at the expense of U. S. consumers and U. S. companies that use foreign
products. Corporate welfare also includes domestic legal barriers that favor
particular companies with monopoly power over free-market competitors.
Corporate welfare sometimes supports companies that are already highly
profitable. Such companies clearly do not need any extra help from taxpay-ers.
In other situations, corporate welfare programs prop up businesses
that are failing in the marketplace. Such companies should be allowed
to fail because they weigh down the economy and reduce overall U. S.
income levels.
Which Agencies Dish It Out and Who Receives It?
The federal budget supports a broad array of corporate welfare programs.
The leading corporate welfare providers are the Departments of Agricul-ture,
Health and Human Services, Transportation, and Energy (Table 33. 1).
Many smaller independent federal agencies, such as the Export-Import
Bank, also dole out corporate welfare.
Corporate welfare is a multiagency problem, so any one congressional
committee cannot reduce the corporate welfare budget across the board.
Indeed, congressional committees try to maximize corporate welfare hand-outs
within their jurisdictions. For example, the agriculture committees
appeal to farm voters with farm pork. Leadership to cut corporate welfare
in the broader public interest must come from the budget committees, the
senior congressional leadership, and the president.
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Table 33.1 Corporate Welfare Spending by Department
(budget authority, $ millions)
Department FY02 Share (%)
Agriculture $35, 049 38
Health & Human Services $9,156 10
Transportation $10, 702 12
Energy $5,873 6
Housing & Urban Dev. $7,802 8
Defense $4,003 4
Interior $1,967 2
Commerce $1,967 2
All other agencies $16, 144 17
Total $92, 663 100
SOURCE: Cato estimates based on the Budget of the U. S. Government, FY 2003.
Many corporate welfare recipients are among the biggest companies in
America, including the Big 3 automakers, Boeing, Archer Daniels Midland,
and now-bankrupt Enron. Most of the massive handouts to agricultural
producers go to large farming businesses. Once companies are successful
in securing a stream of taxpayer goodies, they defend their stake year
after year with the help of their state's congressional delegation. But with
corporate governance reform currently in vogue, it would seem to be a
good time for Congress to cut off this unjustified source of corporate profit.
A Sampler of Corporate Welfare Programs to Cut
The following are some corporate welfare programs that are long over-due
for cutting. Spending totals given are budget authority for FY02.
Direct Subsidies
Agriculture Department— Market Access Program ($ 90 million).
This program gives taxpayer dollars to exporters of agricultural prod-ucts
to pay for their overseas advertising campaigns.
Commerce Department— Advanced Technology Program ($ 187 mil-lion).
This program gives research grants to high-tech companies.
Handouts to successful firms make no sense because they could have
relied on private venture capital instead. Handouts to unsuccessful
firms with poor ideas also make no sense because taxpayers end up
paying for economic waste.
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Foreign Military Financing ($ 3. 7 billion). U. S. taxpayers fund weapons
purchases by foreign governments through this program. That seems
contrary to weapons nonproliferation policy, and the program runs the
risk that weapons recipients may not be U. S. allies in the future.
Amtrak ($ 621 million). The federal passenger rail company should
be fully privatized to allow it to compete fairly with other modes of
transportation.
Subsidized Loans and Insurance
Export-Import Bank ($ 1.2 billion). This program uses taxpayer dollars
to subsidize the financing of foreign purchases of U. S. goods. It
makes loans to foreigners at below-market interest rates, guarantees
the loans of private institutions, and provides export credit insurance.
Overseas Private Investment Corporation ($ 188 million). OPIC pro-vides
direct loans, guaranteed loans, and risk insurance to U. S. firms
that invest in developing countries. Enron, a top beneficiary of both
OPIC and Ex-Im programs in the late 1990s, provides a glaring
example of corporate welfare waste.
Maritime Administration— guaranteed loan program ($ 250 million).
Provides loan guarantees for purchases of ships from U. S. shipyards.
The United States has vast and liquid financial markets making credit
available to all businesses that have reasonable risks. It makes no
sense to use taxpayer funds to duplicate functions of private finan-cial
markets.
Indirect Subsidies to Businesses
Agriculture Department— research and marketing services ($ 2 bil-lion).
Agricultural research and marketing programs aim to improve
product quality, find new uses for products, generate market data,
and support promotions for a variety of agriculture products. In
most industries, such commercial activities are carried out by private
businesses.
Energy Department— energy supply research ($ 670 million). This
program aims to develop new energy technologies and improve exist-ing
ones. The energy industry itself and private research institutes
should fund such work.
The Small Business Administration ($ 1.6 billion). The SBA provides
subsidized loans and loan guarantees to small businesses and has a
poor record of selecting businesses to support since its loans have a
very high delinquency rate.
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What Is Wrong with Corporate Welfare?
As some of the above examples illustrate, there are many problems
with corporate welfare programs. Here are seven:
1. Corporate welfare is a big drain on the taxpayer. In FY02, $93
billion of taxpayer money was spent on programs that subsidize businesses.
By eliminating these programs, Congress could provide every household
in the country with an $860 per year tax cut.
2. Corporate welfare creates an uneven playing field. By giving
selected businesses and industries special advantages, corporate subsidies
put businesses that are less politically connected at an unfair disadvantage.
3. Corporate welfare programs are anti-consumer. By helping par-ticular
businesses, the government often damages consumers. For example,
the protectionist federal sugar program costs consumers several billion
dollars per year in higher product prices.
4. The government does a poor job of picking winners. Federal loan
programs, such as those operated by the SBA, have high delinquency
rates, indicating that the difficult job of analyzing business risks should
be left to the private sector. With regard to technology subsidies, the
federal government has a long history of wasting money on failed ideas.
It is the role of private entrepreneurs and investors to take technology
risks through institutions such as '' angel'' financing, venture capital, and
stock markets. Government should not use taxpayer money on risky
schemes.
5. Corporate welfare fosters corruption. Corporate welfare generates
an unhealthy— sometimes corrupt— relationship between business and
the government. For example, a Maritime Administration program aided
shipbuilders by guaranteeing a $1. 1 billion loan to build cruise ships in
Sen. Trent Lott's hometown. Before the ships were completed, the com-pany
went bankrupt and left taxpayers with a $200 million tab. Steering
taxpayer funds into risky private schemes in important politicians' districts
should be stopped.
6. Corporate welfare depletes private-sector strength. While '' mar-ket
entrepreneurs'' work hard to create new businesses, corporate welfare
helps create '' political entrepreneurs'' who spend their energies seeking
government handouts. Corporate welfare draws talented people and firms
into wasteful subsidy-seeking activities and away from more productive
pursuits. Besides, companies receiving subsidies usually become weaker
and less efficient, not stronger.
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7. Corporate welfare is unconstitutional. Corporate subsidy programs
lie outside Congress's limited spending authority under the U. S. Constitu-tion.
Nowhere in the Constitution is the government granted the authority
to spend taxpayer dollars on boondoggles such as subsidizing Enron to
build power plants in India.
Congress Needs to Work with the Administration to Achieve Cuts
The Bush administration has launched an effort to grade the effectiveness
of federal activities and move funds away from poorly performing pro-grams.
As part of that effort, the FY03 budget proposed some modest
corporate welfare cuts. Overall, it proposed reducing corporate welfare
from $93 billion in FY02, to $86 billion in FY03, according to Cato
estimates.
The administration has proposed reductions in the Manufacturing Exten-sion
Partnership and the Advanced Technology Program. The Corps of
Engineers has also been slated for budget reductions. Unfortunately, Con-gress
usually ignores such cut proposals unless the administration presses
hard and starts to veto spending bills to gain leverage.
The administration did zero out the failed Partnership for a New Genera-tion
of Vehicles subsidy program for U. S. automakers in its FY03 budget.
Despite $1.5 billion in subsidies over eight years, U. S. carmakers did not
deliver a promised hybrid car to consumers. Meanwhile, unsubsidized
Honda and Toyota did introduce successful models. Unfortunately, the
administration replaced PNGV with a new carmaker subsidy called Free-domCar
at $150 million per year.
There are many good corporate welfare targets for Congress to cut. In
the wake of the Enron scandal, reformers should push for elimination of
the Ex-Im Bank and OPIC. These federal entities loaned Enron more than
$1 billion for far-flung schemes around the world from which taxpayers
did not get their money back. Also, reformers should get on board with
the administration and cut the Community Development Block Grant
program, which was criticized in the FY03 budget for doling out pork
projects to high-income communities.
Eliminating Corporate Welfare
Atwo-pronged attack should be made to overcome the political difficulty
of ending corporate welfare. Because corporate welfare is doled out by
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dozens of federal agencies, it is difficult for taxpayers to find out which
firms are receiving what amounts of money. A first reform step should
be financial transparency. The administration should begin providing a
detailed cross-agency listing of companies that received direct business
subsidies and the amounts received in its annual budget documents.
In addition to full disclosure, a corporate welfare termination commis-sion
should be established, akin to the successful military base closing
commissions of the 1990s. The commission would present a list of cuts
to Congress, which would be required to vote on all the cuts together
with no amendments allowed. As an added way for members to gain
support for the measure, the full value of savings could go to immediate
tax rebates for all taxpayers.
Suggested Readings
Congressional Budget Office. '' Federal Financial Support of Business. '' July 1995. Edwards, Chris, and Tad DeHaven. '' Corporate Welfare Update. '' Cato Institute Tax &
Budget Bulletin, no. 7, May 2002. Hartung, William. '' Corporate Welfare for Weapons Makers: The Hidden Costs of
Spending on Defense and Foreign Aid. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 350, August 12, 1999.
Lukas, Aaron, and Ian Va´squez. '' Rethinking the Export-Import Bank. '' Cato Institute Trade Briefing no. 15, March 12, 2002.
Moore, Stephen, and Dean Stansel. '' Ending Corporate Welfare As We Know It. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 225, May 12, 1995.
Rodgers, T. J. '' Silicon Valley versus Corporate Welfare. '' Cato Institute Briefing Paper no. 37, April 27, 1998.
. '' Why Silicon Valley Should Not Normalize Relations with Washington, D. C. '' Cato Institute monograph, February 9, 2000.
Slivinski, Stephen. '' The Corporate Welfare Budget: Bigger Than Ever. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 415, October 10, 2001.
—Prepared by Chris Edwards and Tad DeHaven
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34. Labor Relations Law
Congress should
eliminate exclusive representation, or at least pass a national
right-to-work law, or codify the U. S. Supreme Court's decisions in NLRB v. General Motors (1963) and Communications Work-ers
of America v. Beck (1988); repeal section 8( a) 2 of the National Labor Relations Act, or
at least permit labor-management cooperation that is not union-management cooperation only;
codify the Supreme Court's ruling in NLRB v. Mackay Radio
& Telegraph (1938) that employers have an undisputed right to hire permanent replacement workers for striking workers in
economic strikes; overturn the Supreme Court's ruling in U. S. v. Enmons (1973)
that prohibits federal prosecution of unionists for acts of extor-tion and violence when those acts are undertaken in pursuit
of '' legitimate union objectives"; overturn the Supreme Court's ruling in NLRB v. Town & Country
Electric (1995) that forces employers to hire paid union organiz-ers as ordinary employees;
protect the associational rights of state employees by overriding
state and local laws that impose NLRA-style unionism on state and local government employment;
proscribe the use of project labor agreements on all federal
and federally funded construction projects; and repeal the 1931 Davis Bacon Act and the 1965 Service Con-tract
Act.
In a market economy it makes little sense to distinguish between produc-ers
and consumers because most people are both. It also makes no sense,
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outside discredited Marxist theory, to distinguish between management
and labor because both are employed by consumers to produce goods and
services. Management and labor are complementary, not rivalrous, inputs
to the production process. Unfortunately, U. S. labor relations law is based
on the mistaken ideas that management and labor are natural enemies;
that labor is at an inherent bargaining power disadvantage relative to
management; and that only unions backed by government power, which
eliminate competition among sellers of labor services, can redress that
situation. The National Labor Relations Act, as amended, is based on
ideas that might have seemed sensible in the 1930s but do not make any
sense in today's information age. That act is an impediment to labor
market innovations that are necessary if the United States is to continue
to be the world's premier economy. The NLRA ought to be scrapped, or
at least substantially amended so it reflects modern labor market realities.
The Labor Front Today
Unions represent a small and declining share of the American labor
market. In 2001 only 9.0 percent of the private-sector workforce was
unionized. That figure has been declining since 1953 when it was 36
percent, and soon it will be no higher than 7 percent— exactly where it
was in 1900. Unions, at least in the private sector, are going the way of
the dinosaur. They are institutions that cannot succeed in the competitive
global economy of the future. Firms and workers must be more innovative
and have the freedom to adjust to changing market conditions if they are
to reap the rich rewards of a more prosperous world economy.
Further, nearly half of union members now work for federal, state,
and local governments. In 2001, 37. 4 percent of the government-sector
workforce was unionized. Even that number has declined from its 1995
peak of 38.8 percent. Yet, despite the decline of unions, the old regime
that supports them is still in place.
Exclusive Representation and Union Security
The principle of exclusive representation, as provided for in sec. 9( a)
of the NLRA, mandates that if a majority of employees of a particular
firm vote to be represented by a particular union, that union is the sole
representative of all workers whether an individual worker voted for or
against it or did not vote at all. Individual workers are not free to designate
representatives of their own choosing. While workers should be free, on
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an individual basis, to hire a union to represent them, they should not be
forced to do so by majority vote. Unions are not governments; they are
private associations. For government to tell individual workers that they
must allow a union that has majority support among their coworkers to
represent them is for government to violate those workers' individual
freedom of association. Freedom of religion is not subject to a majority
vote; neither should freedom of association be.
Union security is the principle under which workers who are represented
by exclusive bargaining agents are forced to join, or at least pay dues to,
the union with monopoly bargaining privileges. In the 22 right-to-work
states such coercive arrangements are forbidden by state law. (Sec. 14[ b]
of the NLRA gives states the right to pass such laws.) The union justifica-tion
for union security is that some workers whom unions represent would
otherwise get union-generated benefits for free. But if exclusive representa-tion
were repealed, only a union's voluntary members could get benefits
from the union because the union would represent only its voluntary
members. The right-to-work issue would be moot. Forced unionism would,
at long last, be replaced by voluntary unionism.
The NLRA serves the particular interests of unionized labor rather than
the general interests of all labor, and it abrogates one of the most important
privileges and immunities of U. S. citizens— the right of each individual
worker to enter into hiring contracts with willing employers on terms that
are mutually acceptable. Unfortunately, no court has had the courage to
take up the issue since the 1930s. It is time for Congress to do so.
Congress has three options for remedying the current situation:
Eliminate exclusive representation. Ideally, the current restrictions
on the freedom of workers to choose who if anyone represents them
should be eliminated. The 1991 New Zealand Employment Contracts
Act would be an excellent model to follow. Although 85 percent of
that country's population opposed that approach in 1991, in 1999,
73 percent of employees reported that they were '' very satisfied'' or
'' satisfied'' with their working conditions and terms of employment.
Still, initially it might be politically difficult to pass a similar act in
the United States. Thus, several short-term options are available.
Adopt a national right-to-work law. Under this option workers would
still be forced to let certified unions represent them, but no worker
would be forced to join, or pay dues to, a labor union. This is a poor
second best to members-only bargaining.
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Codify the U. S. Supreme Court's decisions in NLRB v. General
Motors (1963) and Communications Workers of America v. Beck
(1988) by passing a federal '' payroll protection'' statute that guaran-tees
that union members as well as nonmember agency-fee payers
can opt out of union political activities. This is a third-best alternative
to members-only bargaining.
In General Motors the Court declared that the only permissible form
of compulsory union membership under the NLRA is the payment of
union dues. Neither unions nor employers are allowed to compel '' full
membership in good standing. '' Notwithstanding this decision, the NLRB
and the Court still allow unions and employers in non-right-to-work states
to include union security clauses in collective bargaining contracts that
assert that workers must become and remain members of unions in good
standing as a condition of continued employment.
On November 3, 1998, a unanimous Supreme Court, in Marquez v.
Screen Actors Guild, decided that union security clauses may continue to
state that '' membership in good standing'' is required as a condition of
employment. It remains true that, in this context, '' membership in good
standing'' does not mean what almost everyone thinks it means. It means
only that '' members'' must pay some money to the union that represents
them in order to keep their jobs. But unions and employers are now
free to continue to deceive workers into thinking that ordinary union
membership is required as a condition of employment. Only Congress
can put this travesty right.
In Beck the Court declared that the compulsory dues and fees collected
by unions from workers they represent could not be used for purposes
not directly related to collective bargaining, principally for political contri-butions.
Many unions have effectively nullified Beck by creative bookkeep-ing.
In 1996 the NLRB turned a blind eye to such deceit in its California
Saw and Knife Works decision. In that case the board accepted the union's
own staff accountants' categorization of expenditures on activities related
to and not related to collective bargaining. It stated that, under Beck,
dissenting workers had no right to an independent audit of the union's
books. In this regard, Congress should incorporate, for private-sector work-ers,
the procedural and substantive protections that were granted to govern-ment
workers who are forced dues payers in Chicago Teachers Union
v. Hudson (1986). Among them is an indisputable right of dissenting
government workers to independent audits in all cases involving disputes
over union uses of forced dues and fees. The Supreme Court is eventually
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likely to take up the issue of the applicability of Hudson to the private
sector because of a conflict between two circuit courts of appeal. The
D. C. Circuit, in Ferriso v. NLRB (1997), ruled that Hudson does apply,
and the Seventh Circuit, in Machinists v. NLRB (1998), ruled that it
does not.
A related problem concerns whether union expenditures for organizing
union-free workers are chargeable to private-sector agency-fee payers. In
Ellis v. Railway Clerks (1984), the Supreme Court explicitly said that
organizing expenses are not chargeable to agency-fee payers under the
Railway Labor Act, which sets the rules of unionism for workers in the
railroad and airline industries. Until October 7,1999, most experts assumed
that the Ellis rule would also apply to workers under the NLRA. However,
on that date the NLRB ruled in two cases (United Food and Commercial
Workers, andMeijer, Inc.) that the Ellis rule does not apply. In June 2001
a three-judge panel of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals overruled the
NLRB in Meijer, but in April 2002 that same court, sitting en banc,
reversed the panel and sided with the NLRB.
The issue of which procedural rules apply and which union expenses
are and are not chargeable to nonmember agency-fee payers is a morass.
It keeps a lot of judges, lawyers, arbitrators, and accountants busy, but
not in the public interest. Congress must act to establish fair labor laws.
A '' paycheck protection'' statute that codifies Beck, Ellis, and Hudson
protections for nonmember agency-fee payers does not go far enough.
Because of exclusive representation, individual union members should
also be protected by requiring unions annually to get written permission
from a dues payer before spending any of his or her dues on politics.
Under exclusive representation many workers may choose to be union
members to get to vote on the collective bargaining agreements that affect
them. Those workers also deserve to be able to opt out of union political
activities. Not even a national right-to-work act would protect those work-ers
against misuse of their dues for politics. Without exclusive representa-tion
no worker would be subject to the terms of a collective bargaining
agreement unless he or she chose to be a union member. Union membership
would be genuinely voluntary. If Congress abolished exclusive representa-tion,
and protected individual workers from union violence, there would
be no need for payroll protection.
The history of attempts to enforce Beck and related cases demonstrates
how complicated the issues are and how expensive it is to litigate them.
Congress created these problems, and only Congress can eliminate them.
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Repeal Section 8( a) 2 of the NLRA
This is the section that outlaws so-called company unions. More impor-tant,
it is the section that unions have discovered they can use to block any
labor-management cooperation that is not union-management cooperation.
Labor-management cooperation is crucial to America's ability to compete
in the global market. The Employment Policy Foundation in Washington,
D. C., has found that employee involvement plans increase productivity
by from 30 percent to more than 100 percent. Under existing law union-free
firms in America are not allowed to implement such plans unless
they agree to take on the yoke of NLRA-style unions, and doing so usually
reduces productivity in other ways.
Workers who want to have a voice in company decisionmaking without
going through a union should be free to do so. A 1994 national poll of
employees in private businesses with 25 or more workers, conducted by
Princeton Survey Research Associates, revealed that 63 percent preferred
cooperation committees to unions as a way of having a voice in decision-making.
Only 20 percent preferred unions.
In the 1992 Electromation case, the NLRB declared that several volun-tary
labor-management cooperation committees, set up by management
and workers in a union-free firm to give employees a significant voice in
company decisionmaking, were illegal company unions. The Teamsters,
who earlier had lost a certification election at the firm, then argued that
the only form of labor-management cooperation the government would
allow was union-management cooperation. On the basis of that argument,
the Teamsters won a slim majority in a second certification election. As
a result of the Electromation decision, Polaroid Corp. was forced to disband
voluntary labor-management cooperation committees that had been in
existence for 40 years.
In the 1993 DuPont case, the NLRB ruled that labor-management
cooperation committees in a unionized setting were illegal company unions
because they were separate from the union. The voluntary committees
were set up to deal with problems with which the union either could not
or would not deal. Under exclusive representation, management must deal
only with a certified bargaining agent in a unionized firm. The solution
is simply to abolish exclusive representation.
The report that was issued by the Dunlop commission on January 9,
1995, recommends '' clarifying'' rather than doing away with sec. 8( a) 2.
It says that voluntary worker-management cooperation programs '' should
not be unlawful simply because they involve discussion of terms and
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conditions of worker compensation where such discussions are incidental
to the broad purposes of these programs. '' That will do little to solve the
problem. What is '' incidental"? Who will decide? Answer: the NLRB
that has already given us the Electromation decision.
It is time for Congress to state unequivocally that employers and workers
may formulate and participate in any voluntary cooperation schemes they
like so long as any individual worker may join and participate in any
union he or she chooses without penalty.
Short of repealing sec. 8( a) 2 outright, Congress should amend it to permit
labor-management cooperation that is not union-management cooperation.
The Teamwork for Employees and Managers Act (H. R. 473 and S.
295), passed by Congress but vetoed by President Clinton in 1996, is an
excellent second-best model. Unions supported Clinton's veto because
they do not wish to compete on a level playing field with alternative types
of labor-management cooperation.
Codify the Supreme Court's Ruling in NLRB v. Mackay Radio & Telegraph (1938)
Once and for all, it should be made clear that, although strikers have
a right to withhold their own labor services from employers who offer
unsatisfactory terms and conditions of employment, strikers have no right
to withhold the labor services of workers who find those terms and
conditions of employment acceptable. Strikers and replacement workers
should have their constitutional right to equal protection of the laws
acknowledged in the NLRA.
Overturn the Supreme Court's Ruling in U. S. v. Enmons (1973)
The federal Anti-Racketeering Act of 1934 was enacted to cope with
the violence, intimidation, and injury to persons and property associated
with organized crime. For example, it prohibits the use of violence, intimi-dation,
and injury to extort money or other things of value from people
or to force individuals to join or make payments to organizations they
don't like. While this legislation was wending its way through Congress,
the American Federation of Labor noticed that its provisions could apply
just as well to many union activities as to the activities of the mob. To
forestall that use of the law, the AFL lobbied to exempt union activities
from the provisions of the statute. Congress obliged by adding a clause
that says, '' No court of the United States shall construe or apply any of
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the provisions of this act in such a manner as to impair, diminish or in
any manner affect the rights of bona-fide labor organizations in lawfully
carrying out the legitimate objects thereof, as such rights are expressed
in existing statutes of the United States'' (emphasis added). Notwithstand-ing
that the clear language of the statute protected only lawful actions of
the unions, courts soon interpreted the act to protect violence and intimida-tion
by unions during strikes on the preposterous grounds that strikes are
legal and they are undertaken to achieve legal ends such as improvements
in the terms and conditions of employment for strikers. The Supreme
Court made this interpretation of the law official in United States v. Local
807, International Brotherhood of Teamsters (1942).
Congress reacted swiftly to the Local 807 decision by enacting the
Hobbs Act amendments to the Anti-Racketeering Act over President Tru-man's
veto in 1946. The clear intent of Congress was to proscribe acts
of violence and intimidation by unions as well as organized crime. How-ever,
the federal judiciary refused to go along. They continued to apply
the Local 807 decision in most cases of union violence and intimidation
during strikes. Unions continued to get away with egregious attacks against
persons and property, including robbery and arson, whenever any case
could be made that such aggression was in pursuit of '' legitimate union
objectives. '' The Supreme Court removed all doubt concerning union
immunity to federal anti-racketeering laws in 1973 with its ruling in U. S.
v. Enmons. By a 5– 4 decision the Court upheld the right of strikers
under federal law to fire high-powered rifles at three utility company
transformers, to drain oil from and thus ruin a transformer, and to blow
up a transformer substation. The Court said it was up to state and local
officials to prosecute such behavior. The federal government had to stay
out of it because it involved a legal strike under the NLRA.
Congress must try again to make it clear that violence and intimidation
are not acceptable no matter who initiates them and no matter for what
purpose they are initiated. Equal protection of the laws is an important
constitutional principle. Victims of union thuggery deserve as much protec-tion
as victims of mob thuggery. The Freedom from Union Violence Act
(S. 764) proposed in the 106th Congress is a good model for the 108th
Congress to adopt.
Overturn the Supreme Court's Ruling in NLRB v. Town & Country Electric (1995)
Sec. 8( a) 3 of the NLRA makes it an unfair labor practice for an employer
to discriminate against a worker on the basis of union membership. Accord-352
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ing to the Supreme Court, that means that an employer cannot refuse to
hire or cannot fire any employee who is a paid union organizer. Unions
send paid organizers (salts) to apply for jobs at union-free firms and, if
employed, to foment discontent and promote pro-union sympathies. In
the Town & Country Electric decision the Court said that employers could
not resist that practice by firing or refusing to hire salts. In other words,
employers must hire people whose main intent is to subvert their business
activities. That is like telling a homeowner that it is illegal to exclude
visitors whose principal intent is to burglarize his home. Congress should
allow employers to resist this practice. The Truth in Employment Act
(H. R. 758), which was quashed by the threat of a filibuster in the 105th
Congress, is a good model for the 108th Congress to adopt.
Protect the Associational Rights of State Employees with a Federal Statute
Congress has constitutional authority under the Fourteenth Amendment
to protect the privileges and immunities of citizens of the United States.
Thus it is not necessary to undo the harm of government employee union-ism
state by state.
The principles of exclusive representation and union security abrogate
the First Amendment rights of government employees who wish to remain
union free. Government is the employer; hence there is sufficient govern-ment
action to give rise to Bill of Rights concerns.
Under the Bill of Rights, government is not supposed to intrude on an
individual citizen's right to associate or not associate with any legal private
organization. A voluntary union of government employees is a legal private
organization. But forcing dissenting workers to be represented by, join,
or pay dues to such an organization is an abridgment of those workers'
freedom of association.
Moreover, in government employment, mandatory bargaining in good
faith (a feature of the NLRAincorporated into 31 state collective bargaining
statutes) forces governments to share the making of public policy with
privileged, unelected private organizations. Ordinary private organizations
can lobby government, but only government employee unions have the
privilege of laws that force government agencies to bargain in good faith
with them. Good-faith bargaining is conducted behind closed doors. It
requires government agencies to compromise with government employee
unions. Government agencies are forbidden to set unilaterally terms and
conditions of government employment (questions of public policy) without
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the concurrence of government employee unions. Not even the Sierra
Club has that special access to government decisionmakers or that kind of
influence over decisionmaking. In short, government employee unionism,
modeled on the NLRA, violates all basic democratic values. It should be
forbidden. That is why Title VII of the 1978 Civil Service Reform Act
greatly restricts the scope of bargaining with federal employee unions and
forbids union security in federal employment. It ought also to forbid
exclusive representation and mandatory good-faith bargaining in federal
employment.
Incredibly, in the 106th Congress there was bipartisan support for a
statute (S. 1016 and H. R. 1093) that would force all states to give exclusive
representation, mandatory bargaining, and union security privileges to
unions representing police and firefighters. That same measure was pro-moted
by many members of the 107th Congress under cover of the
September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. It is a measure to benefit union
leaders, not firefighters and police on the front lines. The record of disaster
in the states that already give public safety unions such privileges is clear.
Firefighters who are prohibited by union leaders from fighting fires and
police who are prohibited by union leaders from maintaining order and
preventing crimes during strikes undermine civil society. The public safety
strikes in San Francisco during the 1970s prove the point. The proposed
legislation would expose the 20 states that now deny NLRA-style privileges
to public safety unions to the same predation. It proscribes strikes by
public safety personnel, but the record is clear. Public-sector unions with
NLRA-style privileges are almost never deterred by laws that make strikes
illegal. Moreover, once states are forced to give public safety unions such
privileges, the teachers' unions and other public-sector unions will demand
equal treatment. The 108th Congress should drive a stake through the
heart of this idea as soon as possible.
Proscribe the Use of Project Labor Agreements on All Federal and Federally Funded Construction Projects
A project labor agreement (PLA) is a device used by unions in the
construction industry to make it extremely difficult for union-free contrac-tors
to bid successfully for construction projects funded by taxpayer money.
In 1947 construction unions had an 87 percent market share nationwide. In
2001 that figure was only 18.4 percent. Failing the market test, construction
unions have turned to politics at all levels. Construction unions lobby
politicians to require that open-shop (union-free) contractors sign agree-354
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ments to operate according to union rules before they are permitted to
bid on any project funded, in whole or in part, with taxpayer money.
An open-shop contractor that signs a PLA in order to be able to bid
agrees to (1) force all its employees to either join, or pay dues to, the
unions specified in the PLA; (2) do all new hiring associated with the
PLA through designated union hiring halls; (3) operate according to union
work rules and craft jurisdiction definitions; and (4) force its employees
to pay (or agree to pay on their behalf) into union welfare, benefits, and
pension funds. Since it usually takes at least five years for workers to
become vested in such funds, and most projects last less than five years,
the money is forfeited to the unions when the projects are completed.
Moreover, unless employees are to lose their regular benefits and pension
plans, payments to them must be maintained during the life of the PLA
project.
PLAs should not be confused with '' prevailing wage'' regulations in
taxpayer-funded construction. The federal Davis-Bacon Act (see below)
forces successful union-free bidders to pay their employees union wages
on taxpayer-funded projects. But even when forced to pay union-scale
wages, union-free contractors have cost advantages over union-impaired
contractors that enable them to bid lower to get contracts. The unions'
restrictive work rules and job classifications drive up costs substantially.
The obvious solution from the unions' point of view is, through PLAs,
to remove all union-free cost advantages.
Unions claim that PLAs are a way of ensuring safe, on-budget quality
work without labor disputes and project delays. Facts belie those claims.
A nationwide study in 1995 by Charles Culver, a former Occupational
Safety and Health Administration official, revealed that on-the-job fatalities
were significantly lower in union-free construction than in comparable
unionized construction in every year from 1985 through 1993. Moreover,
the quality of union-free work is usually just as good as unionized work,
and it is often better. It is revealing to note that union-free contractors
deemed unqualified to do a job all of a sudden are deemed well qualified
when they sign a PLA.
PLAs are not even effective guarantees against strikes by the unions
on the jobs they win. For example, the San Francisco Airport PLA includes
a no-strike pledge that has been violated at least three times. And PLAs
are not effective guarantees against project completion delays. The Boston
'' Big Dig'' PLA has resulted in substantial delays. The project was sup-posed
to be completed in 1998; now the earliest possible completion date
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is 2004. As for on-budget performance, the original budget for the Big
Dig was $2.5 billion. Best estimates now put the cost at $15 billion.
On February 17, 2001, President Bush signed Executive Order 13202,
which prevents federal government agencies from including PLAs as bid
specifications on federal construction projects. Under the executive order,
union-free firms can use their cost advantages to try to win the bid, but
if a contractor submits a winning bid for a federal construction project
he is thereafter free to agree with construction unions that he and his
subcontractors will work on a union-only basis. The reason the executive
order permits union-only agreements after bids are won is that after a
contract is awarded all subsequent labor relations questions are controlled
by the NLRA, which clearly permits union-only agreements among private
parties. All the president can do is prohibit federal agencies from requiring
PLAs as a condition for bidding.
The legality of PLAs at the state level was affirmed in 1993 by the
U. S. Supreme Court in the Boston Harbor case. This involved a massive
cleanup of Boston Harbor. The Massachusetts Water Resources Authority
said that no union-free contractors could bid on the project unless they
first agreed to the terms of a PLA. Opponents of the PLA argued that the
NLRA preempted state authority to impose a PLA. The Court upheld the
PLA on the grounds that MWRA was acting as an owner-developer of
the project, not the employer of the employees who actually worked the
project. The NLRA controls relations among employers, employees, and
unions, not relations between owner-developers and the employers with
whom they contract. So, under Boston Harbor, a state agency is free to
choose whether or not to impose a PLA as a bid qualification.
Labor unions and their logrolling partner, the Sierra Club, immediately
challenged the legality of Bush's executive order in federal district court,
and on November 7, 2001, Judge Emmet Sullivan declared, on the basis
of the Boston Harbor case, that the executive order was preempted by
the NLRA. This was a manifestly silly ruling because in Boston Harbor
the Supreme Court ruled that the NLRA does not preempt state PLAs if
the state agency involved is an owner-developer rather than an employer.
If Boston Harbor says anything about federal PLAs, it says that the
president, as owner-developer of federal projects, is free to permit or forbid
PLAs. Judge Sullivan's decision was overturned by the D. C. Circuit Court
of Appeals on July 15, 2002.
Congress should settle this issue by enacting legislation that goes beyond
Bush's executive order to preserve open competition at all stages of federal
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construction projects including subcontracting. Primary contractors should
not be permitted to discriminate against subcontractors on the grounds of
whether they are unionized or not. The rule in federal contracting should
be that the lowest bidder who is capable of doing the specified job always
wins. That would save taxpayers millions of dollars each year, and it
would set a good model for states to follow.
Union-only agreements between private parties would be unobjection-able
if labor union participation were a matter of free choice for all
individual workers. However, as long as we have compulsory unionism
(exclusive representation, union security, and mandatory good-faith bar-gaining),
taxpayers need protection against the inflated costs that inevita-bly
follow.
Repeal the 1931 Davis-Bacon Act and the 1965 Service Contract Act
The Davis-Bacon Act, passed at the beginning of the Great Depression,
had two purposes: to stop prices and wages from falling and to keep
blacks from competing for jobs that had previously been done by white
unionized labor. Both of its purposes were wrong. Falling wages and
prices were precisely what were needed to reverse the collapse of real
income and employment in the early 1930s. (Both fell from 1929 to 1933,
but prices fell by more than wages. Thus the real cost of hiring workers
increased during that time period.) The purchasing power fallacy that
misled first Herbert Hoover and later Franklin Roosevelt (e. g., the National
Industrial Recovery Act) did as much to deepen and prolong the Great
Depression as did the Smoot-Hawley tariff.
The racist motivation behind the legislation is plain for anyone who
reads the Congressional Record of 1931 to see. For example, Rep. Clayton
Allgood, in support of the bill, complained of '' cheap colored labor'' that
'' is in competition with white labor throughout the country. ''
While most current supporters of Davis-Bacon are not racists, the law
still has racist effects. There are very few minority-owned firms that can
afford to pay union wages. As a result, they rarely are awarded Davis-Bacon
contracts, and many of them stop even trying for those contracts.
Moreover, Davis-Bacon adds over a billion dollars each year directly
to federal government expenditures, and billions more to private expendi-tures
on projects that are partially funded with federal funds, by making
it impossible for union-free, efficient firms to bid on construction contracts
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financed in whole or in part with federal funds. Today Davis-Bacon serves
no interest whatsoever other than protecting the turf of undeserving, white-dominated
construction trade unions.
The claim, on January 6, 1995, by Robert A. Georgine, president of
the AFL-CIO Building and Construction Trades Department, that Davis-Bacon
has long been supported by the GOP because it adheres to '' free
market principles by recognizing existing wages within each community
set by the private marketplace, not by imposing an artificial standard or
deleterious government interference, '' is self-serving nonsense. Prices set
by the free market do not need any government enforcement at all. They
are the prices at which the production and exchange plans of buyers and
sellers of inputs and outputs are coordinated with each other. They are
the prices that would exist in the absence of any government involvement.
The AFL-CIO and its constituent unions want government to impose
prices that are more favorable to their members and officers than the
marketplace would produce. The '' prevailing wage'' or '' community
wage'' set by the Department of Labor under the Davis-Bacon Act is
almost always the union wage— not the free-market wage. After all, unions
insist that they make wages higher than market-determined wages. Only
members of the GOP in thrall to unions' in-kind and financial bribes
would support Davis-Bacon. No member of Congress, of either party,
who supports the free market can be against repealing Davis-Bacon.
Several states have their own '' little Davis Bacon Acts. '' In 1994 a
federal district court in Michigan found that state's prevailing wage law
violated federal Employee Retirement Income Security Act regulations.
As a result the Michigan law was suspended between 1994 and 1997
when an appellate court reinstated it. According to a study done for the
Mackinac Center for Public Policy, as a direct result of the suspension
more than 11, 000 new jobs were created. Comparing the costs of state
government construction projects during the suspension with their costs
under the prevailing-wage rules suggests that those regulations add at least
$275 million per year.
The Service Contract Act does for federal purchases of services what
the Davis-Bacon Act does for federally funded construction. It wastes
billions of taxpayer dollars for the sole purpose of attempting to price
union-free service providers out of the market. Both acts should be placed
in the dustbin of history along with the syndicalist sympathies that
inspired them.
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Conclusion
The more integrated global economy of the new millennium offers
greater opportunities for American enterprises and workers to prosper.
Greater productivity worldwide means more wealth for those who can
exchange their services with willing customers. But to do so, American
workers and the enterprises that employ them must be empowered to act
quickly to meet market demands. That means eliminating the laws and
regulations that destroy jobs and make workers a burden rather than an
asset to employers. The outmoded perceptions of the 1930s should not
be allowed to shackle the American economy of the 21st century.
Suggested Readings
Baird, Charles W. '' Are Quality Circles Illegal? Global Competition Meets the New Deal. '' Cato Institute Briefing Paper no. 18, February 10, 1993.
. '' Outlawing Cooperation: Chapter Two. '' Regulation, no. 3 (1993). . '' The Permissible Uses of Forced Union Dues: From Hanson to Beck, '' Cato
Institute Policy Analysis no. 174, June 30, 1992. . '' The PLA Hustle. '' Ideas on Liberty, August 2002.
. '' Right to Work before and after 14( b). '' Journal of Labor Research 19, no. 3 (Summer 1998).
. '' Salt without Savor. '' Freeman, May 1998. . '' Toward Voluntary Unionism. '' Journal of Private Enterprise 17, no. 1
(Fall 2001). . '' Unchaining the Workers. '' Regulation 24, no. 3 (Fall 2001).
Bernstein, David. '' The Davis-Bacon Act: Let's Bring Jim Crow to an End. '' Cato Institute Briefing Paper no. 17, January 18, 1993.
Culver, Charles A. Comparison of Nonunion and Union Contractors Construction Fatali-ties. Gainesville, Fla.: National Center for Construction Education and Research, 1995.
Deavers, Ken, Anita Hattiangadi, and Max Lyons. The American Workplace 1998. Washington: Employment Policy Foundation, 1998.
Moore, Cassandra Chrones. '' Blocking Beck. '' Regulation, Spring 1998. Nelson, Daniel. '' The Company Union Movement, 1900– 1937: A Reexamination. ''
Business History Review 56 (Autumn 1982).
Reynolds, Morgan O. Making America Poorer: The Cost of Labor Law. Washington: Cato Institute, 1987.
Summers, Robert S. Collective Bargaining and Public Benefit Conferral: A Jurispruden-tial Critique. Ithaca, N. Y.: Cornell University, Institute of Public Employment, 1976.
Theiblot, Armand J., Thomas R. Haggard, and Herbert R. Northrup. Union Violence: The Record and the Response by Courts, Legislatures, and the NLRB. Fairfax, Va.:
George Mason University Press, 1999. Vedder, Richard. Michigan's Prevailing Wage Law and Its Effects on Government
Spending and Construction Employment. Midland, Mich.: Mackinac Center for Public
Policy, 1999.
—Prepared by Charles W. Baird
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35. Health and Safety Policy
Congress should
eliminate goals of zero risk in statutes governing occupational
and environmental health and establish the purpose of safety and health agencies as the
identification of opportunities to improve safety and health at costs that are much less than the market value of the benefits.
Before the 1970s, the health and safety regulations that we now take
for granted were completely absent from the American economy, with
the exception of selected regulations for food safety and prescription drugs.
The rise of the consumer movement and environmental concerns led to
the establishment of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
in 1966, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration in 1970, the
Environmental Protection Agency in 1970, the Consumer Product Safety
Commission in 1972, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 1974.
Scholarly assessment of the more than three decades of experience with
regulation and government oversight concludes that health and safety
regulations have largely failed to fulfill their initial promise, but many of
the initial promises were infeasible goals. There continue to be major
opportunities to improve regulatory performance by targeting existing
inefficiencies and using market mechanisms (rather than strict command-and-
control mechanisms) to achieve regulatory goals.
Why Should the Government Regulate Risk?
Government action in the health and safety arena can be justified when
there are shortcomings in risk information. The goal of regulatory agencies
that address health and safety risks should be to isolate instances in which
misinformation about health risks prevents people from making optimal
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tradeoffs and to isolate instances in which health risks are not internalized
in market decisions.
The existence of a health risk does not necessarily imply the need for
regulatory action. For example, as long as workers understand the risks
they face in various occupations, they will receive wage compensation
through normal market forces sufficient to make them willing to bear the
risk; the health risk is internalized into the market decision.
In situations in which the risks are not known to workers, as in the
case of dimly understood health hazards or situations in which the labor
market is not competitive, market forces might not operative effectively
to internalize the risk. Those cases provide an opportunity for constructive,
cost-effective government intervention.
Zero vs. Optimal Risk
Unfortunately, the rationale of correcting market failures has never been
a major motivation of regulatory intervention. The simple fact that risks
exist has provided the impetus for the legislative mandates of the health
and safety regulatory agencies. To this day, very few regulatory impact
analyses explore in any meaningful way the role of potential market failure
in the particular context and the constructive role that market forces may
already play in that context.
The conventional regulatory approach to health and safety risks is to
seek a technological solution either through capital investments in the
workplace, changes in the safety devices in products, or similar kinds of
requirements that do not entail any additional care on the part of the
individual. Stated simply, the conventional view is that the existence of
risks is undesirable and, with appropriate technological interventions, we
can eliminate those risks. That perspective does not recognize the cost
tradeoffs involved; the fact that a no-risk society would be so costly as
to make it infeasible does not arise as a policy concern of consequence.
The economic approach to regulating risk is quite different. The potential
role of the government is not to eliminate the risk but rather to address
market failures that lead to an inefficient balance between risk reduction
and cost. The task of government regulatory agencies is to identify cases
in which regulation can generate benefits to society that are worth more
than the costs that are incurred and to address market failures using a
cost-effective approach. To achieve those goals, the focus should not
simply be on rigid technological standards but on flexible regulatory
mechanisms that meet the performance goals.
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How Should Risks Be Evaluated?
Because government policies reduce risks of death rather than eliminate
certain death for identified individuals, the correct benefit value is society's
willingness to pay for the reduction in risk. For example, if a regulation
would reduce risk by 1 in 1 million to everyone in a population of 1
million, then the regulation would save 1 statistical life. If the average
willingness to pay for that risk reduction is $6 per person, then the value
of a statistical life is $6 million.
Using detailed data on wages and prices, economists have estimated
people's tradeoffs between money and fatality risk, thus establishing a
value of statistical lives based on market decisions. For workers in jobs
of average risk, the estimates imply that, in current dollars, workers receive
premiums in the range of $600 to face an additional annual work-related
fatality risk of 1 chance in 10,000. Put somewhat differently, if there were
10,000 such workers facing an annual fatality chance of 1 in 10,000, there
would be 1 statistical death. In return for that risk, workers would receive
total additional wage compensation of $6 million. The compensation estab-lishes
the value of a statistical life, based on workers' own attitude
toward risks.
The estimates suggest that in situations in which there is an awareness
of the risk, market forces are enormously powerful and create tremendous
safety incentives. Thus, we are not operating in a world in which there
are no constraints other than regulatory intervention to promote our safety.
Powerful market forces already create incentives for safety that should
not be overridden by intrusive regulations. We should define the overall
economic framework in which regulatory interventions can potentially
complement the already significant market forces at work.
Assessing Regulatory Performance
Although many agencies use reasonable measures of the value of a
statistical life for the purpose of assessing benefits, the cost per life saved
by the regulations actually promulgated often far exceeds the estimated
benefits. The restrictive nature of agencies' legislative mandates often
precludes consideration of costs in the regulatory decision.
Table 35.1 lists various health and safety regulations and their estimated
cost per life saved. The table also lists the cost per normalized life saved
(in 1995 dollars), which accounts for the duration of life lost and the
existence of discounting of future lives. Because the legislative mandate
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Table 35.1 A Sample of U. S. Health and Safety Regulations and
Their Cost per Life Saved
Cost per
Cost per Normalized
Life Saved Life Saved
(millions of (millions of
Regulation Year Agency 1990 $) 1995 $)
Unvented space heater ban 1980 CPSC 0.1 0.1
Aircraft cabin fire protection 1985 FAA 0.1 0.1
standard
Seatbelt/ air bag 1984 NHTSA 0.1 0.1
Steering column protection 1967 NHTSA 0.1 0.1
standard
Underground construction 1989 OSHA 0.1 0.1
standards
Trihalomethane in drinking 1979 EPA 0.2 0.6
water
Aircraft seat cushion 1984 FAA 0.5 0.6
flammability
Alcohol and drug controls 1985 FRA 0.5 0.6
Auto fuel system integrity 1975 NHTSA 0.5 0.5
Auto wheel rim servicing 1984 OSHA 0.5 0.6
Aircraft floor emergency 1984 FAA 0.7 0.9
lighting
Concrete and masonry 1988 OSHA 0.7 0.9
construction
Crane-suspended personnel 1988 OSHA 0.8 1.0
platform
Passive restraints for trucks 1989 NHTSA 0.8 0.8
and busses
Auto side-impact standards 1990 1990 1.0 1.0
Children's sleepwear 1973 1973 1.0 1.2
flammability ban
Auto side-door supports 1970 NHTSA 1.0 1.0
Low-altitude windshear 1988 FAA 1.6 1.9
equipment
Metal mine electrical 1970 MSHA 1.7 2.0
equipment standards
Trenching and excavation 1989 OSHA 1.8 2.2
standards
Traffic alert/ collision 1988 FAA 1.8 2.2
avoidance systems
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Cost per
Cost per Normalized
Life Saved Life Saved
(millions of (millions of
Regulation Year Agency 1990 $) 1995 $)
Hazard communication 1983 OSHA 1.9 4.8
standard
Truck, bus, and MPV side-1989 NHTSA 2.6 2.6
impact standard
Grain dust explosion 1987 OSHA 3.3 4.0
prevention standards
Rear lap/ shoulder belts for 1989 NHTSA 3.8 3.8
cars
Stds for radionuclides in 1984 EPA 4.1 10.1
uranium mines
Benzene NESHAP (original) 1984 EPA 4.1 10.1
Ethylene dibromide in 1991 EPA 6.8 17.0
drinking water
Benzene NESHAP (revised) 1988 EPA 7.3 18.1
Asbestos occupational 1972 OSHA 9.9 24.7
exposure limit
Benzene occupational 1987 OSHA 10.6 26.5
exposure limit
Electrical equipment in coal 1970 OSHA 11.0 13.3
mines
Arsenic emissions from glass 1986 MSHA 16.1 40.2
plants
Ethylene oxide occupational 1984 EPA 24.4 61.0
exposure limit
Arsenic/ copper NESHAP 1986 EPA 27.4 68.4
Petroleum sludge hazardous 1990 EPA 32.9 82.1
waste listing
Cover/ move uranium mill 1983 EPA 37.7 94.3
tailings (inactive)
Benzene NESHAP (revised) 1990 EPA 39.2 97.9
Cover/ move uranium mill 1983 EPA 53.6 133. 8
tailings (active)
Acrylonitrile occupational 1978 OSHA 61.3 153. 2
exposure limit
Coke ovens occupational 1976 OSHA 75.6 188. 9
exposure limit
(continued)
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Table 35.1 (continued)
Cost per
Cost per Normalized
Life Saved Life Saved
(millions of (millions of
Regulation Year Agency 1990 $) 1995 $)
Lockout/ tagout 1989 OSHA 84.4 102. 4
Arsenic occupational 1978 OSHA 127. 3 317. 9
exposure limit
Asbestos ban 1989 EPA 131. 8 329. 2
Diethylstilbestrol cattle feed 1979 FDA 148. 6 371. 2
ban
Benzene NESHAP (revised) 1990 EPA 200. 2 500. 2
1,2-Dichloropropane in 1991 EPA 777. 4 1,942.1
drinking water
Hazardous waste land 1988 EPA 4,988.7 12,462.7
disposal ban
Municipal solid waste 1988 EPA 22,746.8 56,826.1
landfills
Formaldehyde occupational 1987 OSHA 102, 608.5 256, 372.7
exposure limit
Atrazine/ alachlor in drinking 1991 EPA 109, 608.5 273, 824.4
water
Wood preservatives hazardous 1990 EPA 6,785,822.0 16,952,364.9
waste listing
SOURCE: W. Kip Viscusi, Jahn K. Hakes, and Alan Carlin, '' Measures of Mortality Risks, '' Journal of Risk
and Uncertainty 14 (1997): 213– 33.
varies across regulations, one sees great variance in the cost per life
saved. Indeed, the cost varies even within certain regulatory agencies. For
example, EPA's regulation of trihalomethane in drinking water has an
estimated cost per normalized life saved of $600, 000, whereas the regula-tion
of atrazine/ alachlor in drinking water has an estimated cost per normal-ized
life saved of $274 billion. A regulatory system based on sound
economic principles would reallocate resources from the high-to the low-cost
regulations. That would result in more lives saved at the same cost
to society (or, equivalently, shifting resources could result in the same
number of lives saved at lower cost to society).
The focus of policy debates should not be on whether regulations that
cost $7 million per life saved or $12 million per life saved are desirable.
Rather, policy debates should emphasize the enormous opportunity costs
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Health and Safety Policy
associated with regulations that cost hundreds of millions of dollars or
even billions of dollars per statistical life saved.
Effect of Regulation on Accident Rates
What has been the overall effect of health and safety regulations since
the early 1970s? One yardstick of performance is to see whether accident
rates have declined. Figure 35.1 summarizes fatality rates of various kinds,
including motor vehicle accidents, work accidents, home accidents, public
no-motor-vehicle accidents, and an aggregative category of all accidents.
Since the 1970s, accidents of all kinds have declined. Improvements
in safety over time typically lead to annual press releases on the part of
the regulatory agencies in which they take credit for the improvements
and attribute the gains to their regulatory efforts. There are exceptions, as
Figure 35.1 Accidental Death Rates
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
Year
Deaths
per
100,000
People
All Accidents
Motor Vehicle
Work
Home
Public (Nonmotor Vehicle)
SOURCE: National Safety Council, Accident Facts (Itasca, Ill.: NSC, 2001), pp. 34– 35.
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there are some years in which accident rates increase— and regulatory
officials typically blame cyclical factors for such trends.
The basic message of Figure 35.1 is that accident rates have been
declining throughout the past 100 years. The improvement in our safety
is not a new phenomenon that began with the advent of regulatory agencies
commissioned to protect the citizenry. There is, for example, no significant
downward shift in Figure 35.1's trend for job fatality risk after the establish-ment
of OSHA.
Perhaps the main exception has been motor vehicle accidents, but
assessments of annual death rates associated with motor vehicles are
complicated by the fact that many more people drive than did in previous
years, and there have been considerable changes in the amount of driving,
traffic congestion, and highway design.
Figure 35.2 provides an explanation of motor vehicle accident rates
that attempts to adjust to some of the aspects of driving intensity rather
than simply tallying the motor vehicle fatality rate per person. As can be
seen from the figure, deaths per 10, 000 motor vehicles as well as deaths
per 100 million vehicle miles have declined steadily throughout the last
100 years. As in the case of the other accident statistics, there is no
evidence of a sharp, discontinuous break in the downward trend occurring
with the advent of regulatory policies.
Although regulation may play a beneficial safety-enhancing role, the
steady decrease in risk throughout the century supports the hypothesis
that improvements in societal wealth have greatly increased our demand for
safety over time. Coupling that wealth with technological improvements—
many of which have been stimulated by the greater demand for safety—
has led to dramatic improvements in our individual well-being. Market
forces rather than regulatory policy have likely been the most important
contributor to safety improvements since early last century.
Reform Agenda
Almost from its inception, health and safety regulation has been the
target of proposed reform. Some policy improvements have occurred, such
as elimination of some of the nitpicking of safety standards, the increased
use of informational approaches to regulation, and enhanced enforcement
efforts. However, health and safety regulations have fallen short of any
reasonable standard of performance.
The underlying difficulty can be traced to the legislative mandates of
the regulatory agencies. Instead of focusing regulations on instances of
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Figure 35.2 Motor Vehicle Death Rates
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000
Year
Death
Rate
Deaths per 10,000 Motor Vehicles
Deaths per 100,000,000 Vehicle Miles
SOURCE: National Safety Council, Accident Facts (Itasca, Ill.: NSC, 2001), pp. 108– 9.
market failure, the emphasis is on reductions of risk irrespective of cost.
The regulatory approach has also been characterized by an overly narrow
conceptualization of the potential modes of intervention. The emphasis
has been on command-and-control regulations rather than performance-oriented
standards. More generally, various forms of injury taxes that
would parallel the financial incentives created by workers' compensation
or various environmental tradable permits programs could establish incen-tives
for safety while at the same time offering firms leeway to select the
most cost-effective means of risk reduction. A glaring omission from the
regulatory strategy has been adequate attention devoted to the role of
consumer and worker behavior and the potential for exploiting the benefits
that can derive from promoting safety-enhancing actions by individuals
rather than relying simply on technological controls.
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Defenders of the current regulatory approach have long seized the
moral high ground by claiming that their uncompromising efforts protect
individual health; less consequential concerns such as cost should not
interfere with that higher enterprise. The fallacy of such thinking is that
high-cost, low-benefit safety regulations divert society's resources from
a mix of expenditures that would be more health enhancing than the
allocations dictated by the health and safety regulations. Agencies that
make an unbounded financial commitment to safety frequently are sacrific-ing
individual lives in their symbolic quest for a zero-risk society. It is
unlikely that this situation will be remedied in the absence of fundamental
legislative reform.
Suggested Readings
Adams, John. '' Cars, Cholera, and Cows: The Management of Risk and Uncertainty. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 335, March 4, 1999.
Hahn, Robert W., and Jason K. Burnett. '' A Costly Benefit. '' Regulation 24, no. 3 (2001). Kniesner, Thomas J., and John D. Leeth. '' Abolishing OSHA. '' Regulation 18, no.
4 (1995). Miller, Henry I., and Peter VanDoren. '' Food Risks and Labeling Controversies. '' Regula-tion
23, no. 1 (2000). Niskanen, William A. '' Arsenic and Old Facts. '' Regulation 24, no. 3 (2001).
Scalia, Eugene. '' OSHA's Ergonomics Litigation Record: Three Strikes and It's Out. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 370, May 15, 2000.
Viscusi, W. Kip, and Ted Gayer. '' Safety at Any Price? '' Regulation 25, no. 3 (2002). Wilson, Richard. '' Regulating Environmental Hazards. '' Regulation 23, no. 1 (2000).
. '' Underestimating Arsenic's Risk. '' Regulation 24, no. 3 (2001).
—Prepared by Peter VanDoren
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36. Transportation Policy
Congress should
close the U. S. Department of Transportation;
eliminate the federal gasoline tax;
end all federal transportation subsidies;
entrust states and municipalities with maintaining infrastructure
such as highways, roads, bridges, and subways; repeal the Urban Mass Transit Act of 1964;
repeal the Railway Labor Act of 1926 and the Railroad Retire-ment
Act of 1934; privatize Amtrak;
privatize the air traffic control system;
eliminate all federal regulations that prevent airports from being
privately owned or operated; repeal laws that prevent foreign airlines from flying domestic
routes in the United States; and repeal the Jones Act.
Historically, the federal government regulated the U. S. transportation
system with a heavy hand. Beginning in the 1950s, a series of academic
studies showed that regulation protected incumbent firms rather than the
public. The result was higher prices and poorer service.
Deregulation of the Airlines
Congress passed the Airline Deregulation Act in October 1978. This
legislation eliminated federal control over routes by December 1981 and
over fares by January 1983. The Civil Aeronautics Board, which directed
much of federal regulation of air transportation, was abolished at the end
of 1984. The new law authorized airlines to abandon routes but established
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an Essential Service Air Program to provide subsidies for service to small
communities.
The effect of this legislation on the market value of the various airlines
has been remarkable. Southwest has gone from virtually '' zero'' to a
market capitalization of more than $14 billion. On the other hand, United's
market value declined in real terms from $2 billion to less than three-quarters
of a billion dollars at the end of 2001. However, the total valuation
of the major airlines today is more than double that of all the trunk and
regional carriers together in 1976, before any deregulation. It is even 45
percent more than in 1983. Although some of the carriers, such as United,
Northwest, TWA, and Pam Am, have suffered or even gone out of business,
the industry has done well.
The percentage of passengers traveling on discount fares has increased
dramatically. In 1976, on long flights, only 27 percent of those flying in
coach between major metropolitan areas managed to get discount tickets;
by 1983, 73 percent were getting special fares. Virtually all passengers
today, except for a handful of business travelers, are paying less than the
full coach fare. From 1977 to 1996, after adjusting for inflation, airfares
fell some 40 percent. Figure 36.1 shows how the average fare has declined
Figure 36.1 Average Fare per Mile Adjusted for Inflation
(systemwide operations, 1996 dollars)
$0.22
$0.20
$0.18
$0.16
$0.14
$0.12
$0.24
$0.26
Yield
Year
1970 1975 1985 1980 1990 1995
SOURCE: Steven A. Morrison, Statement before House Committee on the Judiciary, November 5, 1997.
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since the early 1970s. The Federal Trade Commission estimated in 1988
that, after adjusting for fuel costs, the flying public was paying 25 percent
less because of deregulation. Stephen Morrison, professor of economics
at Northeastern University, calculated that deregulation produced a net
benefit, in 2001 dollars, of about $15 billion, most of which was in the
form of lower prices for consumers.
Lower fares have boosted load factors— from 49 percent in 1976 to 58
percent in 2000— which means that travelers are finding planes and airports
far more crowded. Higher load factors, however, make it possible for the
airlines to make money at lower prices. Over the quarter of a century
since deregulation, the number of passengers flying has roughly doubled
while passenger-miles have nearly tripled, proving the success of
deregulation.
Deregulation of Air Freight
While passenger airlines were receiving greater authority to compete,
Federal Express was lobbying to open up freight air traffic. The Civil
Aeronautics Board had granted it only a commuter license that limited
FedEx to small aircraft, restricting its ability to compete. It wanted authori-zation
to fly large aircraft to and from any state or city in the country. In
1976 the CAB recommended that air freight transportation be largely
deregulated. With support for less federal control fromother freight carriers
and no visible opposition, President Jimmy Carter, in November 1977,
signed H. R. 6010, which deregulated air freight transportation.
Although little attention has been paid to the abolition of air freight
regulation, it has been hugely successful. Prior to deregulation, air freight
had been growing around 11 percent per year. In the first year of decontrol,
1978, revenue ton-miles jumped by 26 percent. That early success helped
build support for exempting passenger transportation from control.
Deregulation of Rail Freight
In the fall of 1980 Congress passed the Staggers Act to provide additional
pricing and route abandonment freedoms to the railroad industry. The
Staggers Act gave railroads the ability to set prices within wide limits.
Rail lines could enter into contracts with shippers to carry goods at agreed-upon
rates. Tariffs could not be considered unreasonable, even for '' cap-tive''
shippers, unless they exceeded 180 percent of variable costs. To
qualify as '' captive, '' shippers also had to prove that there was no effective
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competition, a provision designed to protect coal, chemical, and other
bulk commodity shippers. Railroads were also given new authority to
abandon routes.
The Interstate Commerce Commission was abolished and the Surface
Transportation Board established on January 1, 1996, as an independent
body housed within the U. S. Department of Transportation, with jurisdic-tion
over certain surface transportation economic regulatory matters. Its
authority is largely confined to railroad pricing and merger issues. This
act also effectively deregulated intrastate controls on motor carriers, which
had been blocking a fully competitive trucking industry.
The Staggers Act was highly beneficial for carriers as well as for
shippers. The rail industry withstood well the sharp recession of 1981– 82
and enjoyed record profit levels in 1983, notwithstanding a sharp drop in
revenue per ton-mile. By 1988 railroad rates had fallen from 4.2 cents
per ton-mile in the 1970s to 2.6 cents. After 1984 rail rates continued to
fall, declining over the following 15 years by 45 percent. Competition
and the Staggers Act have been a great success.
Deregulation of Trucking
Deregulation of the trucking industry, completed only in the 1990s,
resulted in lower rates and better service to shippers. It also resulted in
lower wages for truck drivers as the Teamsters Union lost power. The
price of trucking licenses, which had been as much as millions of dollars,
declined significantly to a few thousand dollars as the ICC made new
licensing relatively simple and easy. Even though bankruptcies increased,
the number of licensed trucking firms increased sharply in the first few
years of deregulation.
Standard & Poor's found that the cost of shipping by truck had fallen
by $40 billion from the era of regulation to 1988. Improved flexibility
enabled business to operate on the basis of '' just-in-time delivery, '' thus
reducing inventory costs. The Department of Transportation calculated
that the outlays necessary to maintain inventories had plummeted in today's
dollars by more than $100 billion.
Further Reform
Although great progress has been made in reducing regulation of trans-portation,
further steps would improve the U. S. system. Currently, the
motor carrier industry is subject to no economic controls; consequently
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there need be no change in policy. The restrictions on Mexican truckers
should be lifted, but that is mainly a trade and protectionism issue.
Railroads are still subject to some price controls, limits on abandonment,
and control over mergers. Rail passenger service, particularly Amtrak, has
been a problem ever since it was established in the 1970s.
Government limits on air passenger transportation continue through
cabotage restrictions, federal administration of air traffic controllers, and
government ownership of airports. Finally, as a result of the September
11, 2001, attacks, security considerations have burgeoned, making air
travel more expensive, more time-consuming, and perhaps safer.
Water transportation regulation and subsidies have not been a part of
the regulatory reforms of the last 25 years and remain stubbornly resistant
to change.
Rail Freight
Today, the rail industry remains the most closely supervised mode of
transport with limits on abandonment; mergers; labor usage; ownership
of other modes; and even, in certain situations, pricing. The Surface
Transportation Board oversees the rail industry and administers the Stag-gers
Act, under which the board must ensure that rates charged to '' captive
shippers'' are fair.
Under federal law, the STB can exempt railroad traffic from rate regula-tion
whenever it finds such control unnecessary to protect shippers from
monopoly power or wherever the service is limited. Congress has legalized
individual contracts between shippers and rail carriers, allowing competi-tive
pricing. The Staggers Act authorizes railroads to price their services
freely, unless a railroad possesses '' market dominance. '' Congress contin-ues
a prohibition on intermodal ownership and requires the maintenance
of labor protection.
All rail mergers, for example, require STB approval; once given the
green light, however, those mergers are relieved from challenge under the
antitrust laws or under state and local legal barriers. Railroads face a
stringent review by the STB that, in addition to general antitrust considera-tions,
includes the effect on other carriers, the fixed charges that would
arise, and the effect on employees. In particular, the board must provide
protection in any consolidation for employees who might be adversely
affected. That provision is very popular with rail labor unions; the industry
views it as employment protection, which makes achieving significant
savings from mergers difficult.
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Under current law, railroads must seek STB permission to abandon
lines, build new track, or sell any service. Because users and other interested
parties employ the law to slow or even block change, which adds to costs,
those rules should be repealed.
Federal law also enjoins the STB to regulate rates charged '' captive
shippers''— those that can ship by only one line and enjoy no satisfactory
alternative. Coal and grain companies have exploited this provision to
gain lower rates. The markets for coal and grain are highly competitive,
so the producers cannot sell their output at more than the market price.
Consequently, a railroad that drives shipping costs up to the point where
the cost of producing the coal or grain and then moving it exceeds the
competitive price will find that it has no traffic. In other words, although
the railroad has no direct competition, it, too, is constrained by the market.
If a coal company enjoys significantly lower costs because of a favorable
location or a rich and easily exploited mine, it could reap higher profits
than less favorably sited enterprises. However, if the mine has only one
option for shipping its product, that is, a single railroad, the rail carrier
will be able to secure much of that above-normal profit. In that case, the
stockholders of the railroad will gain at the expense of the stockholders
of the mining corporation. There exists no rationale for the government
to intervene by favoring one company over another. The captive shipper
clause must go.
Congress should also repeal the ban on railroads' owning trucking
companies or certain water carriers. Federal regulations proscribe railroad
ownership of trucking firms, although the STB and the ICC, in earlier
decades, have granted many exceptions. From the time of the building of
the Panama Canal, the Interstate Commerce Act has prohibited railroad
possession of water carriers that ply that waterway. Early in the 20th
century, the public believed that those huge companies needed the competi-tion
of water carriers to keep down transcontinental rates. Like the prohibi-tion
on ownership of water carriers, the ban on owning trucking firms
stems from the unwarranted fear of railroad power. With the plethora of
options available to shippers today, such rules are totally unnecessary.
The restrictions simply limit the ability of railroads, trucking firms, and
water carriers to offer the most efficient multimodal services.
The Staggers Act authorized railroads to negotiate contracts with ship-pers
but only with government approval. In addition, all rates must be
filed with the STB, and tariffs that are either '' too high'' or '' too low'' can
be disallowed. Congress should repeal these vestigial regulatory powers. At
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best, they add to paperwork and to the cost of operation; at worst, they
slow innovation and reduce competition.
Amtrak
The STB retains jurisdiction over passenger transportation by rail. In
particular, it arbitrates between Amtrak and freight railroads, which own
most of the track used by the government-owned passenger railroad.
Ideally, Congress should privatize Amtrak and let it negotiate with freight
railroads over its use of trackage. Assuming that a mutually profitable
arrangement exists, private arrangements will develop.
In 1997, given the dismal financial performance of Amtrak, Congress
gave it $2.2 billion to modernize its system, with the stipulation that it
would be operating without federal aid in five years. Congress established
the Amtrak Reform Council to draw up a plan to reconstitute rail passenger
transportation if the government railroad was unable to eliminate its con-stant
deficits. In November 2001, the ARC determined unanimously that,
in the words of Chairman Carmichael Friday, the passenger train company
had '' failed terribly. It hasn't produced a modern system, it's done a lousy
job of raising money and the Northeast Corridor, the one corridor it
controls, is far behind on maintenance and improvements. ''
The council has recommended to Congress that Amtrak be broken up
and competition be introduced. A new company would own the Northeast
Corridor infrastructure and other Amtrak properties, and a second company
would operate the trains. Amtrak itself would manage rail passenger
franchise rights, secure funding from Congress, and oversee performance.
Eventually, certain corridors would be franchised to private companies or
to the states. There would be no expectation that passenger transportation
could be made profitable. In fact, the ARC's plan would simply waste
more of the taxpayers' money.
Over 30 years, Amtrak has already spent some $25 billion in an effort
to turn itself into a self-sustaining enterprise. In 2001 Amtrak asked for
$3.2 billion to cope with new business. Even this money, the ARC believes,
will not result in a company that can pay its bills without subsidy. The
report of the council to Congress finds that instead of moving toward self-sufficiency,
Amtrak is weaker financially today than it was in 1997. It
singles out long-haul passenger trains as inherent money losers that under
any circumstances will have to be subsidized or abandoned.
Congress should face the facts: passenger rail transportation cannot be
made profitable, except in a few corridors, such as between Washington
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and New York and perhaps Boston. That portion of the system can probably
cover its operating costs but most likely will be unable to cover its
capital costs. With a few minor exceptions, passenger rail is not profitable
anywhere in the world; there is no reason to believe it can be made
profitable here. The appropriate policy would be to auction off the assets
of the current system, favoring investors who would attempt to continue
some passenger service. It seems likely that the East Coast corridor between
Washington and points north would survive, albeit with a lower paid
workforce. If all union contracts and employees are kept, as the ARC
recommends, the system can survive only with taxpayers' funds.
Air Travel
Although airline deregulation has been a great success, the industry has
been plagued with crowding; delays; and, on some routes, dominance of
a single carrier. The causes lie in the failure to deregulate other essential
features of the industry. The air traffic control system, in particular, remains
a ward of the FAA. Government entities own virtually all airports. The
recent move to federalize airport security will add more government
bureaucracy without adding more security.
Air Traffic Control. The FAA runs the current air traffic control (ATC) system. Because the FAA is a government agency, annual congressional
appropriations control its finances. Its rules follow normal bureaucratic
practices with congressional committees looking over its actions. More-over,
the FAA must regulate itself— a major conflict of interest.
As a government agency, the FAA has been unable to bring on line
quickly new technologies that would improve safety and reduce delays.
While computer technology changes every year or two, the FAA's procure-ment
processes require five to seven years to complete. It still has 1960-
era mainframe computers, equipment that depends on vacuum tubes, and
obsolete radars. As a consequence, equipment breaks down frequently
and planes must be spaced farther apart than would be necessary with
state-of-the-art computers and radars.
Congress has held numerous hearings and put great pressure on the
FAA to modernize, but it has been unable to improve matters significantly.
To create and maintain a modern system, air traffic controls must be
separated from the FAA. The Clinton administration recommended a
government corporation to run the ATC system; but another government
corporation, such as the post office or Amtrak, although it would probably
be an improvement over the current arrangement, is not the solution.
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A number of other countries— Canada, the Czech Republic, Germany,
Latvia, New Zealand, South Africa, Switzerland, Thailand, and the United
Kingdom— have wrestled with this problem and have found that separating
the ATC system from government oversight while maintaining government
safety regulations works well.
Although no country has fully privatized its ATC system, Canada has
created a private nonprofit corporation owned by the users. Its system has
successfully reduced delays. The other freestanding ATC systems are at
least partially government owned. Given the restrictions that the federal
government puts on its government-owned corporations, such as Amtrak
and the post office, it would be preferable to follow Canada's example
by establishing a nonprofit corporation owned and controlled by airlines
and other users of the ATC system.
Most ATC systems are funded through user fees. The problem that
arises is what to charge general aviation. Because the FAA currently
subsidizes general aviation, owners and pilots oppose any notion of a
freestanding corporation dependent on user fees. Nevertheless, client pay
is a good rule. Noncommercial general aviation pilots, who typically fly
single-engine planes, should be charged only when they file a flight plan
or land at an airport with a control tower. Commercial general aviation
planes, such as corporate jets, should pay their share of the costs of
the system.
Airline Cabotage. It is time for the United States to drop its restric-tions on foreign ownership and operation of air carriers. Under current
law, non-Americans can own no more than 25 percent of the voting stock
of U. S. airlines. America has no similar restrictions on investment in steel,
autos, or most other industries. There is no reason to make an exception
for the airlines. Other private carriers should be free to invest in the United
States. At the moment, several U. S. carriers are in financial difficulties.
Purchase by a healthy foreign airline would make great sense, bringing
new capital and new competition to the American market. Virgin Atlantic
Airways, for example, is interested in building a low-cost U. S. carrier to
feed its international service.
At the same time, the longstanding policy of negotiating '' open skies''
agreements with other governments should be based not on what U. S.
carriers get out of the agreement but on the benefits to American travelers.
Cathay Pacific, based in Hong Kong, could offer improved service and
competition both in the domestic market and internationally. British Air
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might invest in US Air to provide nationwide connections to Europe. The
introduction of such foreign carriers would strengthen competition in the
American market, bringing additional benefits to travelers.
Airport Privatization. Because the Airport and Airways Trust Fund moneys have been available only to government-owned airports, private
airports are ineligible for any of the funds that are raised from taxes on
fuel and passengers. Because those airports eligible for grants are subject
to federal appropriations, even state-and local government– owned airports
cannot plan and count on money from the trust fund. Repealing the federal
taxes on aviation and allowing airports to impose their own fees, which
could vary by time of day to reflect peak use, would give airports incentives
to expand their capacity and introduce technologies that would reduce
delays.
Airport Security. September 11, 2001, sharply increased the public's demand for greater security at airports. The federal government responded,
after considerable wrangling in Congress, by federalizing the security
personnel at all major airports. The bill passed requires all airports, except
for five participating in a pilot program, to use federal employees, who
must be American citizens, to screen passengers and luggage. Those
security personnel would be employed by the Department of Transportation
but presumably would not enjoy the security of civil service workers. One
airport from each of five size categories, from biggest to smallest, will
experiment with private screeners supervised by federal employees. After
three years, all airports could opt out of the government employee system
and use private screeners overseen by federal agents.
Federalizing the screeners may produce less security than we enjoyed
before September 11. Although the legislation specified that the new
federal employees would not have the same civil service protections as
other Department of Transportation employees, there will be a tendency
over time to give them more employment security. Already, there are
efforts to allow aliens to remain as security guards. Firing incompetent
workers will be much more difficult under this legislation than it was
when private companies managed security. What is changing is not the
nature of the security personnel but their employer.
Maritime Policy
Unlike the regulations affecting other transportation sectors, maritime
regulations and subsidies have been strikingly resistant to reform. A hodge-380
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podge of conflicting and costly policies— subsidization, protectionism,
regulation, and taxation— unnecessarily burdens the U. S.-flag fleet, forces
U. S. customers to pay inflated prices, and curbs domestic and international
trade. The list of rules and regulations governing shipping is too exhaustive
to catalog here, but one thing is clear: shipping policies must be thoroughly
reviewed and revamped. Congress should pay special attention to deregula-tion
of ocean shipping and other trade-and consumer-oriented reforms.
In particular, Congress should repeal the Jones Act (sec. 27 of the
Merchant Marine Act of 1920). The Jones Act prohibits shipping merchan-dise
between U. S. ports '' in any other vessel than a vessel built in and
documented under the laws of the United States and owned by persons
who are citizens of the United States. '' The act essentially bars foreign
shipping companies from competing with American companies. A 1993
International Trade Commission study showed that the loss of economic
welfare attributable to America's cabotage restriction was some $3.1 billion
per year. Because the Jones Act inflates prices, many businesses are
encouraged to import goods rather than buy domestic products.
The primary argument made in support of the Jones Act is that we
need an all-American fleet on which to call in time of war. But during
the Persian Gulf War, only 6 vessels of the 460 that shipped military
supplies came from America's subsidized merchant fleet. Repealing the
Jones Act would allow the domestic maritime industry to be more competi-tive
and would enable American producers to take advantage of lower
prices resulting from competition among domestic and foreign suppliers.
Ships used in domestic commerce could be built in one country, manned
by citizens of another, and flagged by still another. That would result in
decreased shipping costs, with savings passed on to American consumers
and the U. S. shipping industry. The price of shipping services, now
restricted by the act, would decline by an estimated 25 percent.
Highway Infrastructure, Mass Transit, and Gasoline Taxes
This final section analyzes highway and transit infrastructure, which is
owned and operated by government. The U. S. Department of Transporta-tion
should be abolished and public roads, national highways, and urban
mass transit systems returned to the states and municipalities and the
private sector. Whatever justification there may once have been for a
national transportation department has disappeared; the goal of creating
a national road network was achieved long ago.
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If states were allowed to assess and fund their own infrastructure needs,
they would be able to select the transportation systems that best suited
local conditions. If necessary, they could reintroduce gasoline taxes at the
current level, or at higher or lower levels, to pay for their systems. But
that is unlikely to be necessary. Ken Small and his colleagues demonstrated
more than a decade ago that efficient congestion and axle-weight-related
fees on trucks could finance an interstate highway system without the use
of a gasoline tax. And the Chilean experience described by Eduardo Engel
and his coauthors provides a blueprint for private road franchise contracts
that could be used in the United States.
The Urban Mass Transit Act of 1964 should be repealed. Transit
accounted for fewer than 2. 0 percent of total daily trips in 1995 and 3.2
percent of work trips. Average transit load (passenger-miles divided by
available seat-miles) is only 16 percent. Only New York City rail transit
has more passenger-miles per route-mile (approximately 40,000) than
average urban freeway passenger-miles per lane-mile (approximately
25,000). And light rail transit is only 18 percent as productive (4,523/
25,385) as urban freeways. Most of the time, buses and subways are
running empty.
The net result is that even though government spent $70 billion on new
mass transit projects in the 1990s, the number of people using transit to
go to work actually decreased slightly from 1990 to 2000 according to
the 2000 census. Yet the outdated transit act provides incentives to local
governments to build urban rail and subway systems by providing up to
75 percent of construction funds.
Conclusion
Transportation is inherently competitive. Since elimination of most of
the economic controls on trucking, railroads, and airlines, those industries
have flourished. Although the performance of those sectors has improved
greatly since the 1970s when the federal government controlled entry,
rates, and routes, problems remain. The difficulties stem in part from the
success of deregulation, which, for example, has democratized air travel
while the infrastructure has remained in government hands. Decontrol has
demonstrated that the market works much better free from government
controls than with government oversight. We need to apply that lesson
to the remaining problems and remove federal ownership and control from
administration of air traffic control, the airports, and the security system.
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The government should free the freight railroads from the remaining
constraints on that industry. The government should recognize that passen-ger
rail transport is never going to be profitable, especially when run by
the government. Only the private sector can possibly run a profitable
passenger train system and then only if free from government controls on
labor and pricing.
Unlike other transportation policies, maritime, highway, and mass transit
policies have been resistant to reform and thus should receive the immediate
attention of reform-minded members of Congress.
Suggested Readings
Button, Kenneth. '' Toward Truly Open Skies. '' Regulation 25, no. 3 (2002). Engel, Eduardo, Ronald Fischer, and Alexander Galetovic. '' A New Approach to Private
Roads. '' Regulation 25, no. 3 (2002). Moore, Thomas Gale. '' Moving Ahead. '' Regulation 25, no. 2 (2002).
Poole, Robert W. Jr., and Viggo Butler. '' Airline Deregulation: The Unfinished Revolu-tion. '' Regulation 22, no. 1 (1999).
Small, Kenneth A., Clifford Winston, and Carol Evans. Road Work. Washington: Brook-ings Institution, 1989.
Vranich, Joseph, Cornelius Chapman, and Edward L. Hudgins. '' A Plan to Liquidate Amtrak. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 425, February 8, 2002.
Winston, Clifford. Alternate Route. Washington: Brookings Institution, 1998.
—Prepared by Peter VanDoren
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37. Insurance Regulation and Government Insurance
Congress should
keep the federal government out of the business of regulating
insurance companies; authorize tax-deferred treatment of private insurers' catastrophe
reserves; and reduce the scope of current government insurance programs,
terminate the new terrorism reinsurance program within three years (if not sooner), and not launch any other new federal
reinsurance schemes.
In recent years, most congressional efforts to expand the federal role
in insurance regulation and insurance assistance have focused on the
mounting cost of federal outlays for disaster assistance involving earth-quakes,
floods, hurricanes, droughts, and other weather-related events.
When devastating losses from the terrorist attack on the World Trade
Center rocked private insurance markets in the fall of 2001, they also
revived political momentum for even broader federal reinsurance guaran-tees
to cover the depleted reserves of insurers and fill growing gaps in
private reinsurance coverage.
The 107th Congress approved creation of a federal backstop for private-sector
terrorism insurance coverage in response to the events of September
11, 2001. Like other federal insurance programs, that approach to shielding
the private sector from loss runs the risk of creating sizable taxpayer-financed
subsidies that would undermine private-sector incentives for risk
management. The broader, long-run issue is the extent to which the federal
government should provide reinsurance protection for large losses from
disasters, whether natural or man-made, as opposed to taking actions
that would expand private-sector capacity for insuring such losses. The
preferred alternative is to reduce the scope of current federal insurance
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programs with their inherent subsidies and disincentives for risk manage-ment,
avoid creating new federal insurance and reinsurance programs, and
modify the tax code to reduce double taxation of the income from the
large reserves that insurers must hold to credibly insure large losses from
catastrophic events.
Government-provided programs for crop insurance and flood insurance,
as well as other interventions in private disaster insurance markets, often
are justified as necessary to overcome the failure of private markets to
offer adequate and affordable disaster insurance. Defenders of government
insurance programs claim that they reduce dependence on '' free'' disaster
assistance and promote efficient risk management by property owners
and farmers.
But government policies are the cause of, not the cure for, the limited
supply and narrow scope of private-sector disaster insurance. Demand for
private coverage is low in part because of the availability of disaster
assistance, which substitutes for both public and private insurance. More-over,
a government that cannot say no to generous disaster assistance is
unlikely to implement an insurance program with strong incentives for
risk management. The subsidized rates and limited underwriting and risk
classification within current federal government insurance programs aggra-vate
adverse selection, discourage efficient risk management, and crowd
out market-based alternatives.
Federal tax policy reduces supply by substantially increasing insurers'
costs of holding capital to cover very large but infrequent losses. State
governments also intrude on insurance markets by capping rates, mandating
supply of particular types of insurance, and creating state pools to provide
catastrophe insurance or reinsurance coverage at subsidized rates.
By reducing both the supply and demand sides of private insurance
protection, government intervention leads to greater reliance on politically
controlled disaster assistance and higher costs for taxpayers. A clear out-come
is larger government.
Disaster Assistance vs. Government Insurance
The federal government seems unable to withhold disaster assistance
from persons who fail to buy private or government insurance. Government
insurance might be seductive to some efficiency-minded economists
because, unlike free disaster assistance, it should encourage property own-ers
and farmers to reduce risky activities and take loss-limiting measures. In
practice, however, the same political pressures that make disaster assistance
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inevitable prevent the government from offering insurance at prices that
reflect the full costs of coverage. Given low demand, government disaster
insurance must be subsidized heavily or coverage must be compelled.
By subsidizing high-risk properties, adopting loose underwriting and risk
classification rules, and continuing to make disaster assistance widely
available, the federal government discourages efficient risk management.
If the scope of insurance coverage were relatively narrow and the total
cost of subsidies were small, government insurance would reduce costs.
But as coverage and subsidies increase, there is a point at which the total
cost of a subsidy-and-assistance program exceeds that of an assistance-only
program. It is not obvious that a disaster-assistance-only program
would cost more.
Private-Sector Risk Bearing vs. Inefficient Government Insurance
The terrorist attack on the World Trade Center depleted capital reserves
of insurers and reinsurers and contributed to significant short-run turmoil
in property insurance markets. The losses aggravated ongoing price
increases that began in late 1999 following a decade-long '' soft'' insurance
market (marked by low prices and expanded coverage). Insurers subse-quently
filed for and most states approved exclusions of most terror losses
in standard form property-casualty insurance policies, except workers'
compensation insurance. As the events of September 11 were digested
and no new attacks occurred, a substantial amount of new capital flowed
into the sector. A number of new entities were formed to sell property
insurance and reinsurance. Coverage for losses from terror generally is
available, albeit at a steep price in many instances, particularly for large
buildings in major cities. In response to those price increases, many proper-ties
are being insured for lower limits of coverage and in some cases are
going '' bare'' (without any insurance).
After the insurance, banking, construction, and real estate industries
vigorously pressed for federal intervention to create a '' backstop'' for
private-sector coverage for losses from terrorist attacks, the Bush adminis-tration
proposed direct federal reimbursement of a large proportion of
terrorist claims for three years. In November 2001 the House passed a
complicated bill that would advance federal funds to pay a large proportion
of losses above individual insurer and industrywide retentions but would
require insurers to pay back any federal funds with premium-based assess-ments
and possible direct surcharges on policyholders. The House bill
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included stiff tort limitations to prevent profiteering by the plaintiffs' bar.
Last June the Senate passed its own bill, which authorized the federal
government to pay a large proportion of losses above specified individual
insurer and industrywide loss thresholds, without any payback provision
or tort limitations. In November, Congress finally approved final legislation
that reflected most of the Senate bill's approach, with low loss thresholds,
very limited payback provisions, and no significant restrictions on tort law-suits.
The World Trade Center's destruction and the subsequent debate over
federal intervention in terrorism insurance highlight fundamental issues
associated with government insurance or reinsurance. Insurance involves
a basic tension between risk-sharing protections and risk-reducing incen-tives.
The public and policymakers appreciate the benefits of risk sharing;
the dulling of incentives to reduce risky activity and take precautions to
control loss that often accompanies insurance is less visible. Private insur-ance
markets limit that moral hazard by charging premiums that are closely
aligned with a policyholder's risk of loss, thus providing appropriate
incentives to reduce loss. Insurers that fail to price policies accurately suffer
adverse selection and lose money. Insurers also have strong incentives to
settle claims efficiently.
Government insurance operates differently. It invariably results in subsi-dized
rates that are crudely related to the risk of loss, thus aggravating
moral hazard and adverse selection. Incentives for economy in claim
settlement are relatively weak. In the two main federal insurance programs,
crop and flood insurance, the government insures a disproportionate num-ber
of high-risk entities at inadequate rates, thus requiring large taxpayer
subsidies. Rather than lose money and disappear, federal insurance pro-grams
tend to lose money and expand, crowding out viable private-sector
coverage. Risky activity and the amount of losses increase as parties adapt
risk management to the terms of subsidized coverage. Subsidized federal
insurance or reinsurance of large losses that result from disasters— whether
natural or man-made— can make citizens more vulnerable to harm by
discouraging rational responses to those losses and the risk of future loss.
In the wake of the new federal terrorism insurance program, pressure
for Congress to enact federal reinsurance for natural disasters will likely
resurface, such as the Homeowners' Insurance Availability Act, which
would authorize the secretary of the treasury to sell '' excess-of-loss''
reinsurance contracts for insured natural catastrophe losses on residential
properties. That pressure should be resisted. There is no need for such a
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federal reinsurance program. Although temporary pressure has been
exerted since the events of September 11, private reinsurance capacity
has expanded substantially since the early 1990s, and the development of
new financial instruments to fund catastrophe coverage has further
expanded the supply of private catastrophe insurance and reinsurance.
The proposed reinsurance program would crowd out much private-sector
coverage and would encourage creation of state insurance programs. As
with federal flood and crop insurance, pressure would likely build for
artificially low prices and program expansion— with similar results: less
private coverage, higher costs for taxpayers, and poorer risk management
by property owners.
Worst-case scenarios can always be imagined that overwhelm the current
capacity of private insurers and capital markets. However, we should not
pretend that levels of catastrophic risks that truly are '' uninsurable'' could
be managed efficiently with hastily constructed public-private '' partner-ships''
that masquerade as insurance and corrupt private markets. To
handle those most unlikely events, it would be better if private insurers
encouraged the federal government to set clearer ex ante guidelines for
the ex post, compassionate relief needed for eligible injured parties and
pressed for removal of tax and regulatory disincentives that impede the
growth of private-sector risk-bearing capacity.
Expanding the Supply of Private Disaster Insurance
Given the past failures of Congress to exercise self-restraint and resist
political demands for more subsidized government insurance, a more
fruitful reform strategy should focus on expanding the supply of prefunded
capital reserves that stand behind private insurance— both to strengthen
the role of insurers as efficient risk managers and to serve as a necessary
'' buffer'' against the risk of insurer insolvencies. Congress should reexam-ine
in particular the counterproductive impact of federal tax policy on
the availability of private insurance coverage for low-probability, high-cost
events.
Federal corporate income taxes increase insurers' costs of holding capital
and, in turn, the premiums they must charge for a given level of disaster
coverage. Because private insurers cannot set up tax-deferred reserves,
they must increase premiums by enough to cover the taxes on investment
income in order to generate returns equivalent to those that investors could
earn elsewhere. This tax disadvantage is especially pronounced for disaster
insurance because insurers must hold huge amounts of capital to pay
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claims that have a low probability of occurrence. Moreover, premium
increases to cover taxes on investment income result in higher expected
before-tax income, thus further increasing expected taxes and premiums.
Loss carry-back and carry-forward provisions in the tax code result in high
taxes in years when disaster claims are low but yield limited deductions in
years with high claims.
The tax loading on premiums is inversely related to the probability of
loss and significantly increases the premium rates needed to cover large
disaster losses that have a low probability of occurrence. Insurers and
reinsurers can reduce the tax loading in disaster insurance premiums by,
for example, substituting debt for equity financing; purchasing reinsurance
from non-U. S. insurers; or, at least for the time being, moving operations
offshore. The tax code nonetheless discourages the private supply of
coverage for relatively rare but potentially large catastrophe losses. It
contributes to possibly severe short-run consequences in the event of a
large disaster, namely, increased insurer insolvency, higher rate increases,
more cancellations and nonrenewals, and pressure for more government
intervention.
A federal reinsurance program would threaten to crowd out much
private-sector coverage, because its coverage thresholds to trigger pay-ments
would be far too low compared to current private-sector capacity.
The federal government also inevitably would extend its reach to the pricing
and underwriting of individual policies backed by federal reinsurance.
Preserve State Regulation of Competitive Insurance Markets
Concern over state regulation of property-casualty insurance rates and
policy forms (contract language) for all types of insurance already has
generated pressure for Congress to enact legislation that would allow
insurers to obtain an optional federal charter and be regulated primarily
by federal regulators. Despite the obvious sins of state regulation as prac-ticed
in some states, the potential efficiencies from optional federal charter-ing
are speculative and small. The risks, however, are large, including the
possibility of inefficient regulation of rates and underwriting at the federal
level, which would undermine incentives for private risk management,
and creation of a broad federal guaranty of insurers' obligations patterned
after federal deposit insurance, which would aggravate moral hazard and
undermine incentives for safety and soundness in private insurance mar-kets.
The preferred alternative to federal chartering and regulation of
insurance is additional reforms at the state level.
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The McCarran-Ferguson Act was enacted in 1945 in response to the
Supreme Court's decision that insurance transacted across state lines was
interstate commerce and subject to federal antitrust law. The ruling chal-lenged
the legitimacy of state regulation and insurers' cooperative arrange-ments
to fix prices through rating bureaus. The act stipulates that state
regulation is in the public interest, that federal law does not apply to
insurance unless specifically indicated, and that federal antitrust law does
not apply to insurance for activities that are regulated by the states and
that do not involve boycott, coercion, or intimidation.
Although the long-term trend in property-casualty insurance regulation
has been toward greater reliance on market competition and less reliance
on rate regulation, progress has been slow. The last decade has seen
significant, albeit uneven, progress toward greater reliance on competitive
pricing. The sporadic movement toward less rate regulation reflects
(1) expanded recognition of rate regulation's inability to make insurance
more affordable and the adverse effects of attempting to do so; (2) increased
concern with the direct and indirect costs of state regulation of prices, policy
forms, and producer licensing; (3) accumulating evidence that competitive
rating works; (4) broader support for competitive rating by insurance com-panies
that have tasted regulatory rate suppression; and (5) favorable trends
in claim costs for auto and workers' compensation insurance in the 1990s,
which allowed deregulation to be accompanied by rate reductions or slower
rate increases.
Prior approval regulation in some states is relatively benign. The main
problem lies in states where regulation materially delays rate and form
changes, chills competition and innovation, produces chronic cross-subsi-dies,
or has more than one of those effects. When it comes to insurance,
some voters are inclined to support command-and-control policies, even
if they reject such policies generally. Sizable rate increases and '' unaf-fordable''
rates create large constituencies that favor rate suppression,
especially when its adverse consequences may be opaque in the short run.
Regulatory bureaucracies resist reform. Interest groups that benefit from
high claim costs may oppose regulatory reform in some states out of fear
that it might increase pressure for public policies to control costs (such
as tort reform).
Problems with Optional Federal Chartering
The enactment of the Graham-Leach-Bliley Act (GLB) in 1999
increased debate over the residual sins of state regulation, in particular
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the direct and indirect costs of state regulation of rates, forms, and producer
licensing in an environment of financial modernization and global competi-tion.
Representatives of many large property-casualty insurers specializing
in business insurance and their main trade association (the American
Insurance Association) advocate optional federal chartering and regulation
as a means of regulatory modernization (that is, of escaping inefficient
state regulation of rates and certain forms). Representatives of many life
insurance and annuity companies and the American Council of Life Insur-ers
favor optional federal regulation as a way to escape inefficient form
regulation and compete more effectively with banks that offer similar
products.
The American Bankers Insurance Association has proposed an optional
federal chartering bill patterned largely after bank regulation. Rep. John
LaFalce (D-N. Y.) and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N. Y.) also proposed
optional federal chartering bills with a number of similar features. The
American Insurance Association has advanced optional federal chartering
for property-casualty insurers, and the American Council of Life Insurers
has urged chartering legislation for life and annuity insurers.
State responses to increased concern about antiquated regulatory prac-tices
and to the threat of federal chartering include the elimination of prior
approval regulation of rates and policy forms for '' large'' commercial
buyers in many states. Many states also approved laws to meet GLB
provisions dealing with reciprocity for nonresident producer licensing and
to prevent federal licensing of producers. The National Association of
Insurance Commissioners is pressing for an interstate compact for one-stop
approval of policy forms for life, annuity, disability, and long-term-care
insurance and for modernization of rate filing and review processes
for property-casualty insurance.
In theory, optional federal chartering of insurers might enhance competi-tion
by streamlining, centralizing, or eliminating antiquated regulations of
multistate insurers and producers. It might provide federally chartered
insurers with a broad exemption from state rate and form regulation. It
might promote beneficial regulatory competition between federal and state
regulators. It might avoid excessively burdensome consumer protections
and eschew mandates that would force policyholders to subsidize particular
sectors or groups. The problem is that optional federal chartering might
achieve few or none of those results and might instead harm competition,
safety, and soundness.
Because the need for and terms of insurance coverage are closely linked
to substantive state law (for example, workers' compensation and motor
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vehicle accident reparations law), property-casualty insurance markets
have an inherently local dimension. The scope of possible gains from
centralization is correspondingly limited. Federal chartering would be
unlikely to exempt federally chartered insurers from participation in state
residual markets, given legitimate state interests in ensuring the availability
of mandatory coverage. State regulation of residual market rates might
therefore still be used to cap rates for high-risk buyers and produce chronic
cross-subsidies. More broadly, the temptation to use insurance regulation
to redistribute wealth need not be lower at the federal level.
Misguided state regulation is largely unable to achieve subsidies across
lines of insurance within a state or across states. Federal regulation might
be able to achieve both, especially if redistributive policies were mandated
for state and federal insurers. For politically sensitive insurance coverage,
federal regulation could ultimately lead to restrictions on rates with harmful
effects on private-sector risk management and resource allocation. Past
examples such as the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, the Community
Reinvestment Act, various consumer group proposals, and recent congres-sional
hearings on sub-prime lending and credit life insurance suggest that
federal insurance regulation would be subject to many of the same pressures
that produce controls on rates and underwriting in some states.
If most insurers could switch charters at relatively low cost, dual charter-ing
could promote regulatory competition, help discipline regulatory
excesses, and provide strong motivation for further state reforms. But, as
long as the threat of tighter federal regulation is credible, additional gains
from actual competition between state and federal regulators may be
modest. Moreover, the largely fixed costs of adopting a federal charter
might discourage many smaller insurers from seeking a federal charter,
and the cost for multistate, federally chartered insurers to return to state
regulation could be large, thereby undermining regulatory competition
for charters.
Federal deposit insurance protects depositors of both federal and state
banks. A federal guaranty covering the obligations of all insurers is likely
to be a precondition for effective regulatory competition on other dimen-sions.
The potential benefits from increased regulatory competition should
be assessed in relation to the disadvantages of an inclusive federal guaranty
program. It is highly probable that federal guarantees of both federally
chartered and state-chartered insurers would be inevitable with dual charter-ing.
Even if initial dual chartering legislation eschewed federal guarantees
and required federally chartered insurers to participate in state guaranty
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funds (as in the insurance trade group proposals) or established a federal
guaranty system for federal insurers (as in the banking group, LaFalce,
and Schumer proposals), predictable political incentives are likely to result
in federal guarantees for all insurers.
An optional chartering system that required federally chartered insurers
to participate in the state guaranty system without a federal guaranty would
be unstable. Insolvency of a federally chartered insurer or a number of
state-chartered insurers would create strong pressure for a federal guaranty
patterned after deposit insurance. In any event, the state guaranty system
would likely be seriously weakened without participation of federally
chartered insurers.
The danger is that federal guarantees would repeat some of the mistakes
of federal deposit insurance. The scope of protection of insurance buyers
against loss from insurer insolvency might be expanded materially (for
example, by reflecting a policy, de facto or de jure, of '' too big to fail'').
Such expansion would materially undermine incentives for safety and
soundness. More regulatory constraints on insurer operations would even-tually
ensue. The ultimate result of optional federal chartering would
therefore be less reliance on market discipline and more reliance on
regulation.
Current proposals for optional federal chartering would eliminate the
antitrust exemption for federally chartered insurers, which could undermine
the integrity and value of current systems of information sharing and thus
reduce competition, increase costs of ratemaking, and reduce safety and
soundness, with disproportionate effects on small insurers. Optional federal
chartering also would involve protracted litigation over the scope of federal
preemption of state insurance law and permissible cooperative practices
for federally chartered insurers.
Regulatory policies in some states that interfere with competitive insur-ance
pricing are clearly inefficient; they reduce gross domestic product
and consumer welfare. Although optional federal chartering might hasten
the demise of such policies, that result is hardly ensured. The unsatisfactory
pace of state reforms does not imply that optional federal chartering
is desirable.
Conclusion
Despite the obvious shortcomings of regulation of insurance rates and
policy forms in some states, optional federal chartering of property-casualty
insurers is not in the best interests of policyholders and taxpayers. The
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possible benefits from optional federal chartering— a reduction in ineffi-cient
state rate and form regulation, achievement of regulatory scale econo-mies,
and promotion of regulatory competition— are speculative, subject
to real uncertainties, and probably modest at best. The potential risks
and costs are comparatively large, including modifications in insurance
guaranty funds and data-sharing arrangements that would undermine
safety, soundness, and healthy competition. Optional federal chartering
also could ultimately produce broader restrictions on insurance pricing and
underwriting, which would increase cross-subsidies among policyholders,
place taxpayers at risk, and inefficiently distort policyholders' incentives
to reduce the risk of loss. The better and more prudent policy is to reject
federal chartering and encourage and support further modernization of
state regulation.
The recent enactment of terrorism insurance legislation notwithstanding,
Congress should avoid creating new federal insurance and reinsurance
schemes and strive to make existing government programs more efficient.
Although politically difficult, it should encourage better risk management
by requiring current federal government insurance programs to apply
private-sector underwriting and risk classification techniques; increase
private-sector risk bearing; and, if necessary, target any remaining premium
subsidies more narrowly. Congress should also promote the accumulation
of additional private-sector capacity for bearing catastrophic risk. The
most direct approach— apart from fundamental tax reform— is to allow
private insurers to offer more affordable coverage by allowing them to
establish tax-deferred reserves for catastrophic risks.
Suggested Readings
Harrington, Scott E. Optional Federal Chartering of Property/ Casualty Insurance Com-panies.
Downers Grove, Ill.: Alliance of American Insurers, 2002.
. '' Repairing Insurance Markets. '' Regulation 25, no. 2 (Summer 2002).
. '' Rethinking Disaster Policy. '' Regulation 23, no. 1 (2000).
. '' Taxes and the High Cost of Catastrophe Insurance: The Case for Tax-Deferred
Reserves. '' Competitive Enterprise Institute Insurance Reform Project, October 1999.
Harrington, Scott E., and Tom Miller. '' Insuring against Terror. '' National Review Online
Financial, November 5, 2001.
Harrington, Scott E., and Greg Niehaus. '' Government Insurance, Tax Policy, and the
Availability and Affordability of Catastrophe Insurance. '' Journal of Insurance Regu-lation
19 (Summer 2001).
Skees, Jerry R. '' Agricultural Risk Management or Income Enhancement. '' Regulation
22, no. 1 (1999).
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VanDoren, Peter, Tom Miller, and John Samples. '' A Risky Business: Government Is Not the Cure for Insurance Markets. '' National Review Online Financial, January
25, 2002.
—Prepared by Scott E. Harrington and Tom Miller
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38. Antitrust
Congress should
repeal the Sherman Act of 1890;
repeal the Clayton Act of 1914;
repeal the Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914;
repeal the Robinson-Patman Act of 1936;
repeal the Celler-Kefauver Act of 1950;
repeal the Antitrust Procedures and Penalties Act of 1975;
repeal the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act of 1976; and
pending repeal, strip the states' authority to enforce federal
antitrust laws.
Introduction
Antitrust is thought by some to be the bulwark of free enterprise.
Without the continued vigilance of the Justice Department and the Federal
Trade Commission, so the argument goes, large corporations would ruth-lessly
destroy their smaller rivals and soon raise prices and profits at
consumers' expense. When megamergers grab headlines and a federal
judge decides that the nation's leading software company should be dis-membered,
the importance of vigorous antitrust law enforcement seems
to be obvious.
But antitrust has a dark side. The time for modest reform of antitrust
policy has passed. Root-and-branch overhaul of what Federal Reserve
chairman Alan Greenspan a generation ago referred to as a '' jumble of
economic irrationality and ignorance''— and what modern scholarship has
shown over and over again to be a playground of special pleaders— is
called for.
Here are seven reasons why the federal antitrust laws should be repealed.
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No. 1: Antitrust Debases the Idea of Private Property
Frequently when government invokes the antitrust laws, it transforms
a company's private property into something that effectively belongs to
the public, to be designed by government officials and sold on terms
congenial to rivals who are bent on the market leader's demise. Some
advocates of the free market endorse that process, despite the destructive
implications of stripping private property of its protection against confisca-tion.
If new technology is to be declared public property, future technology
will not materialize. If technology is to be proprietary, then it must not
be expropriated. Once expropriation becomes the remedy of choice, the
goose is unlikely to continue laying golden eggs.
The principles are these: No one other than the owner has a right to
the technology he created. Consumers can't demand that a product be
provided at a specified price or with specified features. Competitors aren't
entitled to share in the product's advantages. By demanding that one
company's creation be exploited for the benefit of competitors, or even
consumers, government is flouting core principles of free markets and
individual liberty.
No. 2: Antitrust Laws Are Fluid, Nonobjective, and Often Retroactive
Because of murky statutes and conflicting case law, companies never
can be quite sure what constitutes permissible behavior. If a company
cannot demonstrate that its actions were motivated by efficiency, conduct
that is otherwise legal somehow morphs into an antitrust violation. Normal
business practices— price discounts, product improvements, exclusive con-tracting—
become violations of law. When they're not accused of monop-oly
price gouging for charging too much, companies are accused of preda-tory
pricing for charging too little or collusion for charging the same!
No. 3: Antitrust Is Based on a Static View of the Market
In real markets, sellers seek to carve out minimonopolies. Profits from
market power are the engine that drives the economy. So what might
happen in a utopian, perfectly competitive environment is irrelevant to
the question of whether government intervention is necessary or appro-priate.
The proper comparison is with the marketplace that will evolve if
the antitrust laws, by punishing success, eliminate incentives for new and
improved products. Markets move faster than antitrust laws could ever
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move. Consumers rule, not producers. And consumers can unseat any
product and any company no matter how powerful and entrenched. Just
ask WordPerfect or Lotus or IBM.
No. 4: Antitrust Remedies Are Designed by Bureaucrats Who Don't Understand How Markets Work
Economic losses from excessive regulation can do great damage to
producers and consumers. But government moves forward in the name
of correcting market failure, apparently without considering at all the
possibility of government failure. Proponents of antitrust tell us that govern-ment
planners know which products should be withdrawn from the market,
no matter what consumers actually prefer. The problem with that argument
is that it leads directly to paternalism, to the idea that an elite corps of
experts knows our interests better than we do— and can regulate our affairs
to satisfy those interests better than the market does.
The real issue is not whether one product is better than another but
who gets to decide— consumers, declaring their preferences by purchases
in the market, or specialists at the Justice Department or the Federal Trade
Commission rating the merits of various goods and services. When we
permit government to make such decisions for us and allow those decisions
to trump the subjective choices of consumers, we abandon any pretense
of a free market. In the process, we reduce consumer choice to a formalistic
appraisal centering on technical features alone, notwithstanding that prod-ucts
are also desired for quality, price, service, convenience, and a host
of other variables.
No. 5: Antitrust Law Is Wielded by Business Rivals and Their Allies in the Political Arena
Instead of focusing on new and better products, disgruntled rivals try
to exploit the law— consorting with members of Congress, their staffers,
antitrust officials, and the best lobbying and public relations firms that
money can buy. Soon enough, the targeted company responds in kind.
Microsoft, for example, once conspicuously avoided Washington, D. C.,
politicking— but no longer. And America's entrepreneurial enclave, Sili-con
Valley, has become the home of billionaire businesspeople who use
political influence to bring down their competitors. That agenda will
destroy what it sets out to protect. Politicians are mostly order takers.
So we'll get the kind of government we ask for— including oppressive
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regulation. Citizens who are troubled by huge corporations dominating
private markets should be even more concerned if those same corporations
decide that political clout better serves their interest— politicizing competi-tion
to advance the private interests of favored competitors.
No. 6: Barriers to Entry Are Created by Government, Not Private Businesses
Under antitrust law, the proper test for government intervention is
whether barriers to entry foreclose meaningful competition. But what is
a '' barrier''? When a company advertises, lowers prices, improves quality,
adds features, or offers better service, it discourages rivals. But it cannot
bar them. True barriers arise from government misbehavior, not private
power— from special-interest legislation or a misconceived regulatory
regimen that protects existing producers from competition. When govern-ment
grants exclusive licenses to cable, electric, and telephone companies,
monopolies are born and nurtured at public expense. When Congress
decrees targeted tax benefits, subsidies, insurance guarantees, and loans
or enacts tariffs and quotas to protect domestic companies from foreign
rivals, that creates the same anti-competitive environment that the antitrust
laws were meant to foreclose. The obvious answer, which has little to
do with antitrust, is for government to stop creating those barriers to
begin with.
No. 7: Antitrust Will Inevitably Be Used by Unprincipled Politicians as a Political Bludgeon
Too often, the executive branch has exploited the antitrust laws to
force conformity by '' uncooperative'' companies. Remember that when
President Nixon wanted to browbeat the three major TV networks, he
used the threat of an antitrust suit to extort more favorable media coverage.
On a widely publicized tape, Nixon told his aide, Chuck Colson: '' Our
gain is more important than the economic gain. We don't give a goddamn
about the economic gain. Our game here is solely political.... Asfaras
screwing the networks, I'm very glad to do it. '' If Nixon were the only
culprit, that would be bad enough. But former New York Times reporter
David Burnham, in his 1996 book, Abuse of Power, shows that presidents
from Kennedy through Clinton routinely demanded that the Justice Depart-ment
bend the rules in pursuit of political ends.
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The lesson is clear. The threat of abusive public power is far larger
than the threat of private monopoly. It's time for Congress to get rid of
the federal antitrust laws. Meanwhile, pending repeal of those laws, Con-gress
must ensure that enforcement by state authorities does not duplicate
federal enforcement. Government must not be given two bites at the
antitrust apple, nor should defendants be exposed to double jeopardy.
Strip the States' Authority to Enforce Federal Antitrust Laws
It's time to rein in the power of state attorneys general. For most of
American history they did vital, but routine and distinctly unglamorous,
legal work for their states. But beginning in the 1980s, some attorneys
general challenged the Reagan administration's policies in antitrust and
environmental law, pursuing their own agendas through litigation. In the
antitrust context, activist attorneys general have relied on their so-called
parens patriae power to sue on behalf of state residents under federal
statutes.
The Microsoft case is perhaps the most egregious example of duplicative
federal and state antitrust enforcement. Nine states— relying on the same
trial, the same facts, the same conclusions of law, and the same injuries
to the same people— want to override a settlement between Microsoft and
the federal government, supported by 41 of the 50 states. In a legal brief
to a federal judge, the Justice Department offered persuasive reasons
why the states should not be allowed an end run around the federal
settlement.
First, '' The United States is the sole enforcer of the federal antitrust
laws on behalf of the American public. '' Second, the states' remedies
would affect competition and consumers outside their borders— raising
'' for the very first time the prospect that a small group of states, with no
particularized interests to vindicate, might somehow obtain divergent relief
with wide-ranging, national economic implications. '' Third, '' The public
interest is best served when federal and state antitrust activity is comple-mentary,
not duplicative or conflicting. '' Fourth, the nine holdout states
had '' neither the authority nor the responsibility to act in the broader
national interest, and the plaintiff with that authority and responsibility
[that is, the United States] has taken a different course. ''
Still worse, continued the Justice Department, the relief sought by
the nonsettling states '' may harm consumers, retard competition, chill
innovation, or confound compliance'' with the federal settlement. Echoing
the Supreme Court, the Justice Department warned that antitrust redress
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requires a showing of '' harm to competition not competitors. '' Remedies
must be crafted for the benefit of the public, not for the private gain of
politically favored rivals.
Consider the remarks of respected Judge Richard Posner of the Seventh
Circuit Court of Appeals, who mediated an abortive Microsoft settlement
two years ago. Posner offered these recommendations in a recent issue
of the Antitrust Law Journal: '' I would like to see, first, the states stripped
of their authority to bring antitrust suits, federal or state, except . . . where
the state is suing firms that are fixing the prices of goods or services that
they sell to the state.... [States] are too subject to influence by . . .
competitors. This is a particular concern when the [competitor] is a major
political force in that state. A situation in which the benefits of government
action are concentrated in one state and the costs in other states is a recipe
for irresponsible state action. ''
Congress is constitutionally authorized to intervene whenever actual or
imminent state practices threaten the free flow of commerce. Congress
should use that power and revoke the parens patriae authority of the states
to enforce federal antitrust laws. Otherwise, some states will continue to
abuse their existing authority— exercising it to impose sovereignty
beyond their borders and catering to the parochial interests of influential
constituents.
Would constraints on state antitrust enforcement powers violate time-honored
principles of federalism? Not at all. Federalism isn't simply a
matter of states' rights. Nor is it exclusively about devolution of power
or promoting efficient government. First and foremost, federalism is about
checks and balances based on dual sovereignty. Most often, the states are
a counterweight to excessive power in the hands of the federal government.
Yet antitrust is an obvious case in which the federal government must
curb excessive power in the hands of the states.
Conclusion
More than two centuries ago, in the Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith
observed that '' people of the same trade seldom meet together . . . but
the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public or in some contriv-ance
to raise prices. '' Coming from the father of laissez faire, that warning
has been cited ad nauseam by antitrust proponents to justify all manner
of interventionist mischief. Those same proponents, whether carelessly or
deviously, rarely mention Smith's next sentence: '' It is impossible indeed
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to prevent such meetings, by any law which either could be executed, or
would be consistent with liberty and justice. ''
Antitrust is bad law, bad economics, and bad public policy. It deserves
an ignominious burial— sooner rather than later.
Suggested Readings
Armentano, Dominick T. Antitrust and Monopoly: Anatomy of a Policy Failure. New York: Wiley, 1982.
DeBow, Michael. '' Restraining State Attorneys General, Curbing Government Lawsuit Abuse. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 437, May 10, 2002.
Greenspan, Alan. '' Antitrust. '' In Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal. Edited by Ayn Rand. New York: Signet, 1966.
Levy, Robert A. '' Microsoft Redux: Anatomy of a Baseless Lawsuit. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 352, September 30, 1999.
Shughart, William F. II. '' The Government's War on Mergers: The Fatal Conceit of Antitrust Policy. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 323, October 22, 1998.
—Prepared by Robert A. Levy
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39. The Food and Drug Administration
Congress should
modify the Food, Drug and Cosmetics Act of 1938 to allow
pharmaceutical companies to opt out of Food and Drug Admin-istration testing requirements and to use alternative organiza-tions
to certify product safety and efficacy and allow individuals the freedom to use any non-FDA-approved
product.
Under current law, the Food and Drug Administration must approve
all pharmaceuticals and medical devices before they can be marketed.
Although the process is often termed an FDA testing program, that agency
does little if any actual testing. For example, the developer of a new drug
uses its own labs or hires another private company to conduct animal tests
on the drug for safety before proceeding to clinical trials for safety and
efficacy in people. These tests often are conducted by a medical school
department or a consulting firm. When each phase of the testing is com-pleted,
the pharmaceutical company submits the details of the testing
process, evidence of adherence to FDA protocols, and the test results to
the FDA.
FDA officials review the test results at each step, and if they are satisfied,
they give the pharmaceutical company permission to proceed to the next
step in the testing process. When all the tests and trials are complete,
FDA officials review all the information— often measured in hundreds of
pounds or linear feet of reports rather than number of pages— and decide
whether the company can market the drug and advertise it to physicians
for the treatment of specific diseases and conditions. The FDA exercises
very strict authority over what manufacturers can say about their products.
Interestingly, over half of product uses are so-called off-label uses as
physicians discover that products approved to counter one ailment can be
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helpful in preventing or treating other problems. For example, aspirin
designed for pain relief turns out to be effective in preventing heart attacks.
Up to 10 years may be necessary to complete the development, testing,
and approval process. Some estimates suggest that the cost of bringing a
new product from conception to market is on average $400 million.
According to the Office of Technology Assessment, the cost of bringing
a new pharmaceutical to market is so great that most companies will begin
the process only if the market for the drug is expected to be greater than
$100 million a year. As a result, companies focus on drugs expected to
be '' blockbusters, '' which can be used by essentially everyone with a
disease in the expectation that the drug will ameliorate or cure the disease
with a marginal risk of causing adverse side effects.
In response to complaints about constantly increasing delays in the drug
approval process, the federal government devised a method by which
pharmaceutical manufacturers pay FDA to hire and retain additional drug
application reviewers. The user charge system has reduced the time needed
for some phases of the approval process.
The Human Costs of FDA Delays
As an agency, the FDA has a strong incentive to delay allowing products
to reach the market. After all, if a product that helps millions of individuals
causes adverse reactions or even death for a few, the FDA will be subject
to adverse publicity with critics asking why more tests were not conducted.
Certainly, it is desirable to make all pharmaceutical products as safe as
possible. But every day that the FDA delays approving a product for
market, many patients who might be helped suffer or die needlessly.
For example, Dr. Louis Lasagna, director of Tufts University's Center
for the Study of Drug Development, estimates that the seven-year delay
in the approval of beta-blockers as heart medication cost the lives of as
many as 119,000 Americans. During the three and half years it took the
FDA to approve the drug Interleukin-2, 25, 000 Americans died of kidney
cancer even though the drug had already been approved for use in nine
other countries. Eugene Schoenfeld, a cancer survivor and president of
the National Kidney Cancer Association, maintains that '' IL-2 is one of
the worst examples of FDA regulation known to man. ''
In the past two decades patients' groups have become more vocal in
demanding timely access to new medication. AIDS sufferers led the way.
After all, if an individual is expected to live for only two more years,
three more years spent testing the efficacy of a prospective treatment does
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that person no good. The advent of the Internet has allowed individuals
suffering from specific ailments and patient groups to use websites and
chat rooms to exchange information and to give them an opportunity to
take more control of their own treatment. They now can track the progress
of possible treatments as they are tested for safety and efficacy and are
quite conscious of how FDA-imposed delays can stand in the way of their
good health and even their lives.
Reforming Access to Drugs
So long as the FDA maintains a monopoly on drug approval, however,
the agency will remain a bottleneck, slowing the advent of new drugs and
the use of '' old'' drugs in new circumstances.
It is time for Congress to break the FDA's monopoly on drug and
medical device approval, and on information dissemination about drugs
and devices, and to allow individuals to take better control of their own
health care.
First, the Food, Drug and Cosmetics Act of 1938 should be changed
to allow drug companies to seek certification of their products from
nongovernmental organizations. Those organizations would have an incen-tive
to move quickly to design and execute the laboratory tests and human
studies that are appropriate for evaluating the safety and efficacy of person-alized
drugs. Instead of the FDA's approval being required before drugs
are marketed, the nongovernmental organizations would be allowed to
certify new drugs for particular uses and new uses of old drugs. Those
certification organizations would have incentives to allow products on the
market as quickly as possible but also incentives to be as honest as possible
in evaluating the safety and efficacy of products. After all, like Underwriters
Laboratory, those organizations are selling their reputations, which, if
damaged, would cause them to lose their customers.
Different kinds and levels of certification should be allowed, with full
disclosure of information on safety and efficacy. For example, a testing
organization might classify a certain drug as '' risky, '' with the recommen-dation
that it be used only in life-threatening situations when no other
therapy is available. Pharmaceutical manufacturers would be permitted to
certify their own products if they chose to forgo the use of an independent
certification organization. As a compromise with a fully free system of
certification, manufacturers as well as private testing organizations might
be required to label their products '' Not FDA Approved. ''
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Some pharmaceutical manufacturers might oppose breaking the FDA's
monopoly. Larger companies especially are used to doing business with
the agency; they are comfortable with the confidence the public has in
FDA-approved drugs; and they could see continuing FDA regulations
imposing costs that they could absorb but that their smaller com-petitors
could not. Those attitudes are even more reason to allow private
certification.
More fundamentally, in a free society individuals should be free to take
care of their physical well-being as they see fit. The advent of the Internet
gives individuals even more access to information about medical products
and treatments. Individuals should be allowed to choose the treatments
they think best. Such liberty does not open the door for fraud or abuse
any more than does a free market in other products. In fact, informed
consent by patients probably will become more sophisticated as the market
for information about medical treatments becomes more free and open.
Suggested Readings
Campbell, Noel D. '' Replace FDA Regulation of Medical Devices with Third-Party Certification. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 288, November 12, 1997.
Goldberg, Robert M. '' Breaking Up the FDA's Medical Information Monopoly. '' Regula-tion 18, no. 2 (1995).
Higgs, Robert. '' Wrecking Ball: FDA Regulation of Medical Devices. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 235, August 7, 1995.
Hollis, Aidan. '' Closing the FDA's Orange Book. '' Regulation 24, no 4 (2001). Miller, Henry I. To America's Health: A Proposal to Reform the Food and Drug
Administration. Stanford, Calif.: Hoover Institution Press, 2000.
Olson, Mary K. '' How Have User Fees Affected the FDA? '' Regulation 25, no. 1 (2002). Tabarrok, Alexander. '' The Blessed Monopolies. '' Regulation 24, no. 4 (2001).
—Prepared by Peter VanDoren
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40. Intellectual Property
Congress should
reject proposals to ban new technologies or business models
to solve copyright problems (examples include file sharing, copy protection, and '' collusion'' among creators);
reject proposals to impose new technologies or business mod-els
to solve copyright problems (examples include federally certified copy protection standards and compulsory licensing);
Phase out compulsory licensing for all communications content
industries and avoid extending it to future services such as online downloading and streaming; and
take the constitutional principle of '' promot[ ing] the progress
of science and useful arts'' seriously, but don't extend copyright protections far beyond reasonable terms.
The '' Napsterization'' of just about everything digitizable— books,
music, movies, and, of course, software itself— has brought copyright
issues to the forefront as never before, reenergizing the debate over ques-tions
such as the following:
Why do we protect intellectual property at all?
Do we really have '' property rights'' to our intangible creations the
same way we do to our homes or the land on which they rest?
Are there more effective market-oriented ways of encouraging artistic
creation and scientific discovery than through the use of copyright
and patent laws that protect a limited monopoly?
Those questions are hardly new, of course. Indeed, the debate over the
nature and scope of intellectual property law is centuries old. More than
200 years ago, these questions concerned our Founding Fathers, who
included a utilitarian compromise within the Constitution to ensure that
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science and the useful arts would be promoted by offering limited protec-tion.
They arrived at the balancing act contained in Article 1, section 8,
clause 8, which gave Congress the power to '' promote the progress of
science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and
inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries. ''
But the inclusion of this clause in the Constitution did not answer
specific questions regarding such matters as the lengths of copyright or
patent protections for various artistic or scientific creations, or what '' fair
use'' or '' prior art'' were to mean. These highly subjective legal concepts
didn't yet exist; the question of their meaning was left open to future
generations of jurists, legal theorists, economists, and politicians.
And so today, in the midst of an explosion of digital and online creativity,
the concept of intellectual property (IP) is being challenged as it has never
been before. The current debate pits those who fear file-sharing technolo-gies
such as Napster and Kazaa, against those who are afraid that IP rights
holders will lock up content with new copy protection scheme such as
digital rights management (DRM), which includes a variety of tools and
methods the creative community hopes to use to control access to, and
reproduction of, various forms of entertainment and information content.
In the United States, the extremes manifest themselves in legislative
proposals by file-sharing companies for compulsory licensing, on the one
hand, and government-mandated DRM schemes to prevent file sharing
on the other. But to the extent the market can be capable of self-protection,
it can reduce the sphere of disagreement by minimizing the amount of
legal protection required. For example, the market alternative to shutdown
of file sharing, or targeting individual file swappers, may well be the
improvement of digital rights management technologies to protect intellec-tual
property. Perhaps such private, '' barbed-wire'' solutions can be supe-rior.
Indeed, some people must think so, because they argue that DRM
technologies will be able to lock up content and violate fair use. But not
yet: new copy-protected CDs have already been cracked by users who
found they could use a 99-cent felt-tip pen to mark around the edges of
the disc and defeat the DRM system. So even low-tech hacking techniques
can sometimes cause headaches for industry.
It seems that even with legal protections of IP in the digital age, the
reality of copying has confronted us with a need to find incentives to
encourage artistic creation and scientific innovation if legal protections
no longer work. If the market can do some of its own self-protecting and
provide some incentives, is that enough? Or, paradoxically, is it too much?
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There are certain things Congress should not do as we search for
the answers.
IP and First Principles
Governments exist to protect property rights among other natural rights.
But the property status of intangibles has always been unclear from a
natural law perspective. Novelist-philosopher Ayn Rand wrote, '' Patents
and copyrights are the legal implementation of the base of all property
rights: a man's right to the product of his mind. '' Other theoreticians
claim that there is no right to own intangible ideas, which are not scarce
in the sense that physical property is. To this group, the cost of protecting
IP is just another cost of doing business, so why socialize it?
A good argument can be made, however, that, in a world without any
IP protection, some individuals would be discouraged from producing
important goods or ideas (consider pharmaceuticals or genetically altered
foods to feed hungry populations). Indeed, those who advocate the abolition
of copyright or patent law might ask themselves why the same arguments
and reasoning should not be applied to tangible property.
Nonetheless, it is clear that some creators seek and receive excessive
terms of protection— which, by extending far beyond the life of the author,
seemingly go beyond any reasonable possibility of motivating creators,
who often are deceased. Other people seek to expand what is covered by
copyright and patent law in the first place, such as '' One-Click'' Internet
shopping (which Amazon. com patented) or even hyperlinking itself (which
British Telecommunications claims it patented and on which it therefore
deserves to collect fees).
So, succinctly stated, Congress's problem is balancing artistic and entre-preneurial
incentives to create with the interests of the larger community
of users in an unhindered exchange of ideas and products.
The Internet Changes Things
Previous technological innovations such as photocopiers and VCRs
forced society to reconsider the proper balance of IP protections. Nonethe-less,
the shifts brought about by the modern communications and comput-ing
revolution are more profound because today's copies are perfect repro-ductions.
Thus record companies and Hollywood claim that their intellec-tual
property rights are under attack as never before, threatening their
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economic livelihood and making it less likely they will want to put anything
at all in the public realm.
In response, critics claim that copyright and patent law has been cor-rupted,
that the balance has tilted too far in favor of copyright holders,
and that digital technologies and other market developments have so
fundamentally altered the nature of intellectual property that we need to
radically shorten established terms of protection or eliminate them alto-gether.
Those thinkers hold that information transmitted in electronic or
digital formats should not be '' bottled up'' and controlled by its creators.
They fear that copy protection technologies can go too far— even further
than existing legal protections— and erode fair use rights that individuals
have come to expect, as well as pose a technological threat to free speech.
Thus they want assurances that noninfringing uses of materials and rights
of fair use are preserved in the law.
Under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act of 1998, for example,
one's intent to infringe is not relevant; rather, a person engaged in the
development or distribution of circumvention technology, even for a benign
purpose such as research or archiving, is at risk of being held criminally
or civilly liable. There is no defense under the act even if there is no
underlying copyright infringement. That's too extreme.
Potential Common Ground Solutions
Is there any common ground in this debate? Perhaps. The justification
for copyright law is to create incentives. But if markets can create them,
law may not need to play as great a role. Sometimes a private security
guard and barbed wire may be superior to the policeman and the court.
Then again, when someone breaks into your house and steals your property,
you call the cops.
The first step toward common ground is to take the principle '' To
Promote the Progress of Science and Useful Arts'' more seriously. Many
agree on the concept of the protection of property; the disputes often arise
over such matters as how long property should be protected. Any term
set by law will be unavoidably arbitrary.
But copyright protection that extends far beyond the life of the originator
provides diminishing incentives for that person to innovate (even if one
assumes he is innovating on behalf of yet-unborn descendants). Thus terms
of protection may need to be rethought; indeed a new Supreme Court
case is challenging the 1998 '' Sonny Bono Copyright Term Extension
Act, '' which extended copyright protection terms to life of the author plus
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70 years (up from 50 years) (Table 40.1). Some jokingly call it the '' Mickey
Mouse Protection Act. ''
Rights owners certainly expend great energy on extending the legal
monopoly granted by copyright. This is the widespread criticism of the
Copyright Term Extension Act, in that new protections were given retroac-tively.
The middlemen— and heirs— continue to want to be paid, an
impulse having little to do with Walt Disney's initial inspiration to invent
Mickey Mouse. Similarly, the heirs of Margaret Mitchell, author of Gone
with the Wind, protested the derivative work The Wind Done Gone by
Alice Randall. Although decisions about copyright terms inevitably will
be arbitrary, there seems little reason to provide retroactive legal protection
decades after a creator is dead.
Anger at the middleman (or heirs) is understandable: one exploring and
sampling, say, roots-country music, would not be thrilled about paying
BMG/ RCA for the privilege when artists have been dead for more than
60 years. More consciously adhering to the Constitution's goal of promot-ing
the progress of science and the useful arts— rather than promoting
unnecessary government monopoly— seems a sensible course. Copyright
laws that instead extend terms of protection to benefit a middleman do
little to '' incentivize'' true creative activity.
One possible solution to the perceived problem of duplicating digital
content that is still protected has been suggested by Wayne State University
law professor Jessica Litman, who calls for revisions to '' recast . . . copy-right
as an exclusive right of commercial exploitation. '' She would focus
less on whether copies were made of a work and instead focus more
narrowly on ensuring that copyright holders retain the sole opportunities
for commercial exploitation of their work. Under this model, she points
out, individual trading of song files wouldn't be actionable, but perhaps
Napster's facilitation of large-scale sharing would be because of its signifi-Table
40.1 Ever-Increasing Copyright Terms of Protection
Year Term of Copyright Protection
1790 28 years (14 years of protection possible 14-year renewal)
1831 42 years (28 years of protection possible 14-year renewal)
1909 56 years (28 years of protection possible 28-year renewal)
1976 Life of the author 50 years
1998 Life of the author 70 years
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cant interference with rights holders' commercial opportunities. Such an
approach would put the law back in line with the public's typical under-standing
of the copyright bargain and fair use.
The second step toward establishing common ground is for Congress
to reject the impulse to either ban or impose new technologies or business
models to solve copyright problems. Examples of bans include bans on
file-sharing programs, restrictions on copy protection, and prohibitions on
'' collusion'' among creators seeking to shelter their content. Examples of
technology impositions would include federally certified copy protection
standards and compulsory licensing.
Calls to ban file sharing came early. The response to Napster was a
perfect example of creators wanting the government to ban or restrict file-sharing
technologies that reduce copyright control. Today— now that peer-to-
peer file sharing has become even more widespread despite Napster's
demise— some people go so far as to endorse measures such as Sen.
Ernest Hollings' (D-S. C.) Consumer Broadband and Digital Television
Promotion Act. This bill would require federally certified DRM controls
on any devices capable of manipulating and copying digital content, such
as computers and personal digital assistants ('' palm pilots''). The idea
would be to ensure that those who copy files do so only with permission,
on approved equipment. Manufacturers would be forbidden to make
devices that didn't include the copy protection technology.
While some people inappropriately want to ban file-sharing capabilities,
others— equally inappropriately— want to ban copy protection technolog-ies
designed to halt file sharing. Those who eagerly share copyrighted
files often condemn experimental DRM technologies by which copyright
holders hope to shield works from reproduction, such as digital watermark-ing
and enhanced encryption. As noted, some regard such efforts as threats
to free expression (which is ironic, given that many in the next breath
will assert that encryption or watermarking can always be cracked— and
so far, that's been true).
Many opponents of copy protection also want government to impose a
different type of technology mandate— a compulsory license— that would
require content providers to license their products to others at a govern-ment-
regulated rate. So while opposing mandatory DRM schemes, this
crowd simultaneously endorses forced '' contracts'' and their accompany-ing
government-set royalty fees, which are little more than price controls.
Reps. Rick Boucher (D-Va.) and Chris Cannon (R-Utah) have pushed for
a '' Music Online Competition Act, '' which would implement a version
of this plan.
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The legislative extremes of either banning or imposing particular techno-logies
or business models should be avoided.
A New Model for the Future
Finally, when thinking about the future, it helps conceptually if we
break up intellectual property into '' A, B, and C'' components. A is what's
in the public domain. B is the stuff protected now, which we're fighting
over. C is what hasn't been created yet. If Congress allows market mecha-nisms
to take over C, then, over time, C and A will dwarf B.
In other words, we need to think of ways of making the role of govern-ment
smaller. Avoiding interference with technological experimentation
can do that. For example, digital rights management— although it will
never fully prevent copying— can make it inconvenient enough so that
cracking encrypted songs may not be worth the trouble. Perhaps a 19-
cent music download, certified virus free, that also includes liner notes,
lyrics, photos, and discount coupons on merchandise and concerts is a
better deal than a free song.
And the fair use issue may not be as thorny as some people expect.
First, it is not in the interest of profit-maximizing companies to restrict
intellectual output and software research. In striking the balance, companies
face market-induced incentives to avoid devising copy protection schemes
so inconvenient or cumbersome that they go beyond the goal of deflecting
piracy. For example, although one isn't necessarily entitled to a perfect
digital copy as a matter of fair use, record companies are nonetheless
experimenting with putting multiple versions of songs on CD as a way
to alleviate fair use concerns and give people the portability they want.
Moreover, as University of Texas economics professor Stan Liebowitz
notes, while digital rights management technologies won't prevent all
copying, the imperative is to prevent massive unauthorized duplication.
With respect to fair use, Liebowitz argues that, given technologies such
as micropayments, voluntary DRM schemes will not restrict the output
of intellectual property at all as IP pricing techniques are improved.
Technological experimentation may offer artists and inventors the option
of '' opting out'' of the IP legal regime entirely and instead relying on
new technologies and unique business models to protect their property
and receive compensation for it. Digital distribution even gives producers
and artists the option of avoiding the existing music companies and movie
studios. Artists often claim to be ripped off, which is another fight within
the wide-ranging copyright debate of today. (MP3. com was one of those
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options— artists-direct-to-the-customer model.) Of course, if artists rather
than middlemen control their copyrights, it won't end disputes over length
of protection, but it could remove one layer of the dispute.
The bottom line is that Congress should not imagine that it has all the
answers to practical problems of digital copy protection as '' Napsteriza-tion''
continues to unfold. Perhaps technology can be a better means of
controlling use of one's creations, in some applications, than can law—
even if law is in place as a backup.
Also, to lessen the reliance on traditional copyright protections, policy-makers
should ensure that unintentional government barriers don't stand
in the way of private efforts by individuals to protect their intangible
creations. For example, overzealous antitrust enforcement might hamper
collective private efforts to license songs, such as the MusicNet and
Pressplay services. Restrictive contracts that antitrust law might eye suspi-ciously
could in fact benefit consumers by ensuring returns for producers,
preserving their incentives to create. Indeed, some academics have sug-gested
that regulation such as antitrust law may force the '' need'' for
more intellectual property law and enforcement than would otherwise be
warranted.
Suggested Readings
Crews, Clyde Wayne Jr. '' Musical Mandates: Must the Pop Music Industry Submit to Compulsory Licensing? '' Cato Institute TechKnowledge no. 16, August 15, 2001,
www. cato. org/ tech/ tk/ 010815-tk. html. Crews, Clyde Wayne Jr., and Adam Thierer. '' When Rights Collide: Principles to Guide
the Intellectual Property Debate. '' Cato Institute TechKnowledge no. 10, June 4, 2001, www. cato. org/ tech/ tk/ 010604-tk. html.
Liebowitz, Stan. '' Policing Pirates in the Networked Age. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 438, May 15, 2002, www. cato. org/ pubs/ pas/ pa-438es. html.
Litman, Jessica. Digital Copyright. Amherst, N. Y.: Prometheus Books, 2001. Thierer, Adam, and Clyde Wayne Crews Jr., eds. Copy Fights: The Future of Intellectual
Property in the Information Age. Washington: Cato Institute, 2002.
—Prepared by Clyde Wayne Crews Jr. and Adam Thierer
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41. Telecommunications and Broadband Policy
Congress should
end regulatory asymmetry by placing all carriers on an equal
legal footing and comprehensively deregulate all carriers to accomplish this goal,
end the open-access crusade at the FCC,
reform and devolve universal service subsidies and the '' E-Rate''
program, enact comprehensive spectrum reform and privatization,
end the failed HDTV transition and reallocate that spectrum for
other uses, end arbitrary regulatory '' public interest standard'' decision-making,
and clean up the telecom industry tax mess.
The American telecommunications sector went into freefall in 2002.
Telecom stocks tanked as once-proud industry giants and smaller carriers
alike were financially decimated. Numerous providers were forced to
declare bankruptcy. And the reverberations were felt well beyond the
boundaries of the telecom sector as upstream and downstream industries
took a hit as well.
There are many obvious business reasons for this market meltdown.
Excessive debt loads, overcapacity, lack of consumer demand, and even
accounting scandals have all contributed to the current downturn. But
public policy has had an equally important impact on this sector. While
markets and technologies have evolved rapidly, the communications policy
landscape remains encumbered with outdated rules and regulations.
This is largely due to the fact that when Congress last attempted to
address these matters seven years ago by implementing the Telecommuni-417
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cations Act of 1996, legislators intentionally avoided providing clear dereg-ulatory
objectives to the Federal Communications Commission and instead
delegated broad and remarkably ambiguous authority to the agency. That
left the most important deregulatory decisions to the FCC and, not surpris-ingly,
the agency did a very poor job of following through with a serious
liberalization agenda.
The Failed Promise and Premise of the Telecom Act
The Telecom Act's most serious flaw was its backward-looking focus
on correcting the market problems of a bygone era. Instead of thoroughly
cleaning out the regulatory deadwood of the past, legislators and regulators
decided to instead rework archaic legal paradigms and policies that were
outmoded decades ago. It kept in place increasingly unnatural legal distinc-tions,
such as the artificial separation of local and long-distance wireline
telephone services even though these two services can be bundled and
sold as one service as they are by wireless cellular providers.
The Telecom Act did not address the underlying regulatory asymmetry
that governs formerly distinct industry sectors. That is, regulators have
traditionally grouped providers into categories such as common carriers,
cable services, wireless, and mass media and broadcasting. But the increas-ing
reality of technological convergence means these formerly distinct
industry sectors and companies are now integrating and searching for
ways to offer consumers a bundled set of communications services under
a single brand name. Increasingly, providers are referring to themselves
as information services providers, broadband providers, or network services
providers. Yet the Telecom Act endorsed the paradigms of the past and
allowed increasingly interchangeable services to be regulated under differ-ent
legal standards.
The first step Congress must take to begin seriously reforming communi-cations
policy is to end this asymmetry, not by '' regulating up'' to put
everyone on an equal footing, but rather by '' deregulating down. '' Placing
everyone on the same deregulated level playing field should be at the
heart of telecommunications policy to ensure nondiscriminatory regulatory
treatment of competing providers and technologies by all levels of
government.
Two controversial bills were proposed in the 107th Congress to clarify
the law in this regard. One bill, the Internet Freedom and Broadband
Deployment Act of 2001 (H. R. 1542), was sponsored by House Committee
on Energy and Commerce chairman Billy Tauzin (R-La.) and ranking
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member John Dingell, (D-Mich.). The hotly debated Tauzin-Dingell bill
would allow incumbent local telephone exchange carriers, or '' Baby
Bells, '' to provide customers with broadband services the same way cable
and satellite companies are currently allowed to, largely free of the infra-structure-
sharing mandates. On February 27, 2002, after months of acrimo-nious
debate, the House of Representatives finally passed a watered-down
version of the bill and passed it along to the mostly unsympathetic Senate
Commerce Committee, chaired by longtime Baby Bell critic Ernest
Hollings (D-S. C.). Hollings and a number of his colleagues denounced
the Tauzin-Dingell bill and vowed to kill the measure or to go further
and introduce legislation to actually impose new regulations on telecom
and broadband markets.
Despite the generally hostile reception that the Tauzin-Dingell measure
received in the Senate, a second measure, S. 2430, the Broadband Regula-tory
Parity Act of 2002, was introduced by Sens. John Breaux (D-La.)
and Don Nickles (R-Okla.); that measure would require the FCC to ensure
regulatory parity among the various providers of broadband services. The
Breaux-Nickles bill would achieve this parity not by '' regulating up'' but
by '' deregulating down. '' The bill states that '' all providers of broadband
service, and all providers of broadband access services, are subject to the
same regulatory requirements, or no regulatory requirements'' and requires
that those provisions be '' implemented without increasing the regulatory
requirements applicable to any provider of broadband services. '' Through
those provisions, the bill establishes a simple legal standard to help level
the playing field in the broadband marketplace. Both of these bills provide
a refreshing break from the past and represent the simplest path to commu-nications
policy symmetry.
The Open-Access Crisis
The second serious problemwith the Telecom Act was its fundamentally
flawed premise that competition could be micromanaged into existence
through '' open-access'' mandates. The act included provisions that
required incumbent local telephone companies to share elements of their
networks with rivals at a regulated rate. The theory behind these intercon-nection
and unbundling rules was that smaller carriers needed a chance
to get their feet wet in this market before they could invest in facilities
of their own to serve consumers. To encourage entry by smaller carriers,
Congress delegated broad and undefined authority to the FCC to create
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bent network owners at a regulated (and very low) price so that the new
rivals could resell that capacity to customers and still earn a profit.
The danger inherent in this scheme should have been apparent from
the start: If regulators went to the extreme and set the regulated rate for
leased capacity too low, then new rivals would come to rely on infrastruc-ture
sharing as their core business model and avoid making the facilities-based
investments necessary for true competition to develop. That is
essentially what happened in the wake of the Telecom Act's passage as
the FCC overzealously implemented the act's network-sharing provisions.
This encouraged new entrants to engage in a crude form of regulatory
arbitrage as they pushed for regulators to constantly suppress the regulated
price of access to existing telephone networks. Meanwhile, they largely
ignored investment in new networks of their own through which legitimate
competition could have developed.
Despite the consistent and tireless efforts of federal and state regulators
to prop up this regulatory house of cards, this system essentially collapsed
under its own weight in 2001. Regulators pushed the rules as far as they
possibly could until it became painfully obvious that industry investment
was being seriously discouraged. Moreover, litigation by incumbents tied
the hands of regulators somewhat. More important, markets and investors
came to realize that business models that are heavily dependent on a
forced-access regulatory regime are not sustainable in the long run. Conse-quently,
the stocks of pure resale carriers tanked and most were forced
to declare bankruptcy. Carriers that had made some facilities-based infra-structure
investments fared better.
What this experience suggests is that genuine head-to-head, facilities-based
competition will not develop so long as regulators are proposing
technology sharing or network sharing as the cure-all for America's com-munications
woes. While the authors of the Telecom Act generally believed
that open-access rules were to be transitional in character and were to be
narrowly applied during the transition period, those sentiments were not
explicitly written into law. As a result, the FCC, which was eager to
produce numerical results to satisfy its competition mandate, decided to
sacrifice long-term industry innovation and investment for increased short-term
entry by resellers. The danger now is that this regulatory system will
be extended to other industry sectors (such as cable networks) or applied
to emerging technologies (such as broadband Internet access).
Although infrastructure sharing continues to have great appeal for regu-lators,
it is hardly the path to true telecommunications freedom or competi-420
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tion. In fact, it is really just communications socialism: collective control
of the underlying means of production. Worse yet, forced access demands
the continuation of a regime of price controls within the communications
sector since someone must set the interconnection or lease price and that
someone will end up being regulatory officials.
If forced access has a future in the communications industry, then true
industry competition, innovation, and investment do not. Congress must
abandon the use of this insidious industrial policy technique by making
sure it is not applied to emerging technologies and then taking steps to
sunset forced-access provisions that cover the provision of local tele-phone
service.
Ending Universal Service Entitlements
Universal service subsidies are relics of a bygone age that continue to
distort market pricing and competitive entry. The system has been riddled
with inefficient cross-subsidies, artificially inflated prices, geographic rate
averaging, and hidden phone bill charges for average Americans. While
some reform efforts have been entertained in recent years, they have been
quite limited and mostly cosmetic in nature.
To make matters worse, section 254 of the Telecommunications Act
mandated that the FCC take steps to expand the future definition of
universal service. It did not take the agency long to follow up on this
request. In May 1997 the agency created the '' E-Rate'' program (known
among its critics as the '' Gore tax'' since it was heavily promoted by
then– vice president Al Gore), which unilaterally established a new govern-ment
bureaucracy to help wire schools and libraries to the Internet. The
FCC then dictated that the American people would pick up the $2.25
billion per year tab for the program by imposing a hidden tax on everyone's
phone bills.
Although the constitutionality of the E-Rate program was questioned
initially, the program withstood court challenges and early legislative
reform efforts. Consequently, the E-Rate threatens to become yet another
entrenched Washington entitlement program and further set back needed
reform efforts.
In addition, a new crop of federal spending initiatives is now creeping
up that covers telecommunications services, the Internet, and the high-technology
sector in general. Although not a formally unified effort, the
combined effect of federal legislative activity on this front is tantamount
to the creation of what might be called a '' Digital New Deal. '' That is,
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just as policymakers proposed a litany of '' New Deal'' programs and
spending initiatives during the Depression, lawmakers are today devising
myriad new federal programs aimed at solving the many supposed emer-gencies
or disasters that will befall industry or consumers without govern-ment
assistance. The recent troubles of the dot-com and telecommunica-tions
sectors have only added fuel to the fire of interventionism.
These new communications-, cyberspace-, and Internet-related spending
initiatives that policymakers are considering, or have already implemented,
can basically be grouped into four general categories: (1) broadband
deployment; (2) digital education, civic participation, and cultural initia-tives;
(3) cyber security; and (4) research and development. Dozens of
new federal programs were proposed in these areas during the 107th
Congress. And dozens of other promotional programs already exist.
The dangers of the rising cyber pork should be obvious. Washington
subsidy and entitlement programs typically have a never-ending lifespan
and often open the door to increased federal regulatory intervention. Politi-cal
meddling of this variety could also displace private-sector investment
efforts or result in technological favoritism by favoring or promoting one
set of technologies or providers over another. Moreover, subsidy programs
aren't really necessary in an environment characterized by proliferating
consumer choices but uncertain market demand for new services. Finally,
and most profound, perhaps the leading argument against the creation of
a Digital New Deal is that, by inviting the feds to act as a market facilitator,
the industry runs the risk of becoming more politicized over time.
Congress should abolish the current system of federal entitlements and
devolve to the states responsibility for any subsidy programs that are
deemed necessary in the future. A federal telecommunications welfare state
is not justified. If schools desire specific technologies or communications
connections, they can petition their state or local leaders for funding the
same way they would for textbooks or chalkboards: through an account-able,
on-budget state appropriation. There is nothing unique or special
about communications or computing technologies that justifies a federal
entitlement program paid for through hidden telephone taxes while other
tools of learning are paid for through state and local budgets.
Spectrum Reform and Privatization
The Telecommunications Act largely ignored the wireless sector and
spectrum reform in general. That was a highly unfortunate oversight
by Congress, given the ongoing problems associated with centralized
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bureaucratic management of the electromagnetic spectrum. For more than
seven decades, the FCC has treated the spectrum as a socialized public
resource and the results have been predictable: gross misallocation, delayed
innovation, and the creation of artificial scarcity.
In recent years, however, the FCC has gradually come to accept the
logic of a free market in spectrum allocation and management. The shift
to the use of auctions in the early 1990s was a major step forward in
this regard. Previously, all spectrum allocations had been made through
comparative hearings or random lotteries. While not all new spectrum
allocations are made through auctions, many are, meaning that those who
value the resource most highly are now obtaining the spectrum.
Moreover, the FCC has recently signaled its interest in allowing spec-trum
license holders greater flexibility in use to ensure that this valuable
resource can be put to its most efficient use. While the agency has not
yet followed through on this reform, recent FCC Spectrum Policy Task
Force meetings and initiatives suggest that the agency is at least moving
in the right direction.
But auctions and flexible use, while important steps, are not enough.
The task of spectrum reform will only be complete once policymakers
grant property rights in spectrum. Just as America has a full-fledged private
property rights regime for real estate, so too should wireless spectrum
properties be accorded the full protection of the law. As long as federal
regulators parcel out spectrum under a licensing system, the process will be
a politicized mess. The alternative— a pure free market for the ownership,
control, and trade of spectrum properties— should be a top priority.
To begin this task, Congress should grant incumbent spectrum holders
a property right in their existing or future allocation. This means spectrum
holders would no longer lease their allocation from the federal government
but instead would own it outright and be able to use it (or sell it) as they
saw fit. This also means that all arbitrary federal regulatory oversight of the
spectrum would end, including content or speech controls on broadcasters.
Federal regulators would be responsible only for dealing with technical
trespass (interference) violations and disputes that arose between holders
of adjoining spectrum.
For all potential uses of scarce spectrum to which there are competing
claims, auctions should be used to allocate the spectrum. Firms would
file plans of their bidding proposals with the FCC and then post bonds
proving they had enough capital to bid credibly for the given allocation.
The commission also could establish competitive bidding rules (as it did
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in previous auctions) to ensure that bidding collusion did not take place.
These auctions would not be one-time events; they would be ongoing as
spectrum claims developed and multiplied.
Policymakers should not rig these auctions in any way, either to favor
certain demographic groups or to artificially boost the amount of money
raised for the federal Treasury by such auctions. The primary goal of
spectrum auctions is to allocate spectrum to its most highly valued use
by offering it up for competitive bidding, not to funnel money into the
federal coffers.
Under this new system, spectrum owners— better thought of as '' band
managers'' for the bands of spectrum they will own and manage— would
henceforth have complete freedom to use, sublease, combine, or sell
spectrum in any way they saw fit.
Government agencies and public-sector users should purchase the spec-trum
they need at ongoing auctions. It should be noted that government
agencies already control a significant portion of the spectrum, so under
this scheme, they would be granted rights to their existing holdings.
Congress or state governments should ensure that public-sector spectrum
users have money in their budgets for ongoing spectrum acquisition.
Finally, as Table 41.1 shows, regarding spectrum '' commons'' areas—
or portions of the electromagnetic spectrum that are less scarce and can
be shared by many users without assigning specific rights— the government
has three options. (1) It can directly allocate certain bands of spectrum
for commons use, much as it purchases large portions of land for public
parks, and then open those areas to common use. (2) At the opposite end
of the spectrum, so to speak, government could simply rely on private
band managers to contract with independent users to create commons
areas within their allocation. Practically speaking, however, it might be
very difficult for commons areas to develop under this model, given the
need for coordination across many bands. The transaction costs would be
enormous. (3) A final compromise between these two extremes would be
for public officials to designate certain ceilings and floors above and below
which certain noninterfering uses of the spectrum would be tolerated. In
spectrum parlance, these ceilings and floors are known as '' overlay'' and
'' underlay'' rights or areas. This is a quite practical solution, as such
'' easements'' already exist today in some bands of the spectrum.
While all three of these options represent practical and legitimate solu-tions
to the need for ongoing spectrum commons areas, one option that
should be taken off the table is the adoption of a pure commons regime
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Table 41.1 Property Rights vs. a Spectrum Commons: What Are the Options?
Requires Ongoing Requires Little Continuing
Regulatory Oversight Oversight
Emphasis on Ceilings and Floors— Pure Property Rights
Importance of Easements Model: Use Model: Grant incumbent
Property Rights auctions and property rights spectrum holders property
for mutually exclusive uses rights in their allocations. Use
but impose federal ceiling-auctions and property rights
floor requirements for new mutually exclusive
('' easements'') above or uses of spectrum. Grant
below which band managers spectrum owners the absolute
have no control. So long as right of excludability and
they do not meaningfully flexible use. Rely on private
interfere, allow unlimited band managers to subdivide
overlay or underlay across all and sublease portions of their
private bands. Possible band to common uses.
historical models: airline
traffic above private property
or subsoil mineral or oil
drilling rights.
Emphasis on Public Parks Model: Most Pure Commons-Importance
of of spectrum fully privatized Homesteading Model: No
Commons but feds (perhaps states and exclusive property rights. Let
localities or even private overlay and underlay users
associations) purchase large tap into spectrum as they
swaths of spectrum and open wish and fight about the
it up for free use to create a interference later in the courts
spectrum commons. Or the or have faith that new devices
FCC could just generously ('' agile radio, '' or software-expand
'' Part 15'' rules for defined radios) will allow
unlicensed spectrum. everyone to work things out
voluntarily.
for the spectrum. Some spectrum engineers and academics— infatuated
with the exciting technologies emerging today that enable reuse and effi-cient
sharing of the spectrum— have called for adoption of a pure spectrum
commons model to govern ongoing spectrum allocations. Those theorists
believe that new technologies such as software-defined radios and smart
antennas can allow users to infinitely divide the spectrum and shatter the
notion of spectrum scarcity in the process.
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But that is a stretch. There will almost certainly be some scarcity at
work within the spectrum, just as there is for all natural resources. If
nothing else, the limits of the human imagination create scarcities within
the spectrum. More practically, commons areas are likely to encourage
overuse and congestion, which will force many parties to search out
privately managed bands where they could pay a premium for uninterrupted
use. And the commons crowd does not have a useful transitional solution
to the issue of spectrum incumbency. Existing users, many of which have
controlled a specific swath of spectrum for several decades, would not
take lightly the idea of sharing their allocation with newcomers. And a
good case can be made that they should not be forced to share that
spectrum, given their long-standing control and use of the resource. It
would be better to grandfather them into a property rights model by
granting them complete ownership and flexible use rights to that spectrum.
Under the property rights regime envisioned above, the FCC would get
out of the spectrum management business altogether. Residual regulatory
functions, such as the adjudication of interference disputes or international
coordination, could be left to some sort of '' spectrum court, '' which would
be a set of administrative law judges with particular expertise in resolving
technical spectrum disputes.
Ending the HDTV Fiasco
America's 15-year high-definition television (HDTV) industrial policy
experiment has been a failure. When industry and government officials
began debating what the next generation of television signals would look
like in the mid-1980s, prettier pictures and better sound appeared to be
just around the corner. But the rollout of digital television (DTV) has
stagnated, and many skeptics are wondering if the entire experiment should
not be abandoned so that the spectrum allocated for over-the-air (OTA)
digital television can be used for other important uses.
One reason for the sluggish pace of change in this sector can be traced
back to the scandalous manner in which broadcasters received the spectrum
over which digital television transition is supposed to take place. Each
broadcaster in America already has a six megahertz (MHz) spectrum
allocation that is used to provide consumers old-fashioned analog TV
signals. But broadcasters argued that they would need the government to
give them an additional 6 MHz of high-quality spectrum to simulcast
digital signals alongside analog broadcasts until Americans made the
complete transition to DTV sets. Moreover, the broadcasters didn't want
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to pay for this spectrum, which was quite valuable '' beach front quality''
spectrum. Amazingly, as part of the Telecom Act of 1996, they convinced
policymakers to do exactly that—'' loan'' them an additional 6 MHz
allocation free of charge even though many other spectrum users were
salivating at the prospect of bidding billions to obtain that same spectrum
for other uses. Broadcasters would continue to transmit analog signals on
their old 6-MHz analog slice of spectrum until 2006, or until 85 percent
of Americans had made the migration to digital television, and then return
the old spectrum to the FCC for auction. Estimates of the value of the
new digital spectrum given to the broadcasters to make the transition to
DTV ran between $10 billion and $100 billion. The logic behind this
giveaway was that local OTA broadcasting remained an important public
service that should be continued in the digital age regardless of the cost
of doing so.
The problem is, the opportunity costs associated with this giveaway
are very high and get higher with each passing year. While Americans
wait for the rollout of DTV to occur, countless other service providers
are being denied the opportunity to use that same spectrum for alternative
uses that the public might actually demand. Nonetheless, policymakers,
egged on by the broadcast lobby, continue to go to great lengths to try
to make the transition work. For example, in August 2002 the FCC
mandated that television set manufacturers include digital tuners in all
their new sets by 2006 to help speed the transition even though the tuners
will add more than $200 to the cost of each new television. Likewise,
Capitol Hill policymakers were rumored to be considering legislation
mandating that cable companies carry all local digital TV broadcast signals
on their systems without compensation. Cable firms are already strapped
with analog '' must carry'' rules that eat up capacity and offer them no
compensation in return. Under the so-called dual must carry rules now
under consideration, cable operators would be forced to dedicate even
more of their capacity to the retransmission of OTA broadcast signals,
meaning less room for other cable channels or even Internet access.
These mandates are essentially an attempt to transfer responsibility for
the failed transition to other parties. But until the broadcasters make more
of their programming available in high definition, such mandates aren't
really going to help anything. And, regrettably, very little is being shown
in HDTV by broadcasters today and, consequently, only a very small
percentage of American households has felt compelled to make the digital
transition in their homes. So there is little to no chance that 85 percent
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of American households will have made the DTV transition by 2006,
meaning that broadcasters will not be able to return their old analog
spectrum for auction on time.
So, what can Congress do now? Policymakers should consider taking
back the valuable digital spectrum they lent to broadcasters and selling it
to other companies that could put it to better use. Alternatively, Congress
could just let the broadcasters sell it off themselves and then split the
proceeds with the government. These aren't perfect solutions, but they
are certainly better than continuing with the current failed industrial policy.
The goal now should be to open this squandered broadcast spectrum to
other uses as quickly as possible.
It should be noted that the end of this industry policy is not the end of
HDTV altogether. Today, well over 80 percent of Americans opt to
receive their television programming via satellite or cable systems, meaning
broadcast stations have become just another set of channels in the universe
of choices for consumers. The vast majority of this subscription-based
programming is delivered digitally, and an increasing portion of it is high
definition in nature. When consumers demand more HDTV services, they
will be able to receive them through satellite and cable carriers. And many
broadcasters will air a certain portion of their programming in HDTV or
sell it to cable and satellite carriers to retransmit. HDTV can naturally
evolve and become a viable option for many households, but it will be
on a timetable determined by consumers, not bureaucrats or legislators.
The '' Public Interest Standard'' Charade
The HDTV fiasco is a fine example of a Washington industrial policy
undertaken in the name of serving the '' public interest. '' The history of
communications and technology regulation is littered with countless other
examples of such '' public interest'' crusades. Although it has spawned
innumerable policy directives and spending initiatives over the past seven
decades, this amorphous concept has managed to elude definition. Much
as they '' know'' pornography, omniscient members of Congress and their
brethren at the FCC always seem to know the '' public interest'' when
they see it. But since the public interest is whatever they say it is, it's a
splendidly convenient (if not a tad bit circular) concept by which to regulate
one of the biggest sectors of the U. S. economy.
But what truly is '' in the public interest''? It is whatever the public
says it is. How is that determined? By the interaction of millions of diverse
interests and actors in a free marketplace. Asking the FCC to define the
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public interest for the communications sector is akin to asking a hypotheti-cal
Federal Automobile Commission to define what types of cars consum-ers
will demand next year and then determining which firms should be
able to supply them and on what terms. Just as the forces of supply and
demand are spontaneously calibrated by a free market in cars, computers,
corn, or coffee, the public interest in communications can be discovered
by the voluntary interaction of companies and consumers in a free market.
The FCC's public interest standard should be abandoned immediately.
Cleaning Up the Telecom Industry Tax Mess
Finally, regulation is not the only thing holding back America's increas-ingly
competitive communications and broadband sector. Burdensome and
unique tax rules also remain a serious threat. That is largely due to the
fact that policymakers at the state and local levels have long treated this
sector as a cash cow from which they could draw substantial sums. They
justified such heavy levies by arguing that the industry was a natural
monopoly. But the telecommunications industry is no longer being treated
as a regulated monopoly, so policymakers should stop taxing it as though
it were. That is, as competition comes to communications in America,
tax policies based on the regulated monopoly model of the past must be
comprehensively reformed.
Some of these taxes are federal in nature and can be addressed by
Congress or the FCC. A good example is the federal 3 percent excise tax
on telecommunications put in place during the Spanish-American War of
1898. This anachronistic tax should be repealed immediately. And the
hidden taxes associated with the E-Rate or '' Gore Tax'' program should
also be repealed or at least devolved to a lower level of government for
administration.
Regrettably, however, the more problematic tax policy issues arise from
burdensome state and local mandates. For example, many states impose
discriminatory ad valorem taxes on interstate communications services by
taxing telecommunications business property at rates higher than other
property, driving up costs for consumers. Federal protections against such
taxes— already in effect for railroads, airlines, and trucking— should be
extended to telecommunications. Many governments impose multiple and
extremely high taxes on communications services. Such taxes should be
slashed to a single tax per state and locality, and filing and auditing
procedures should be radically streamlined. Finally, taxes and tolls on
Internet access should be permanently banned since those charges represent
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a burdensome levy on the free flow of information and the construction
of new interstate broadband networks.
Suggested Readings
Bell, Tom W., and Solveig Singleton. Regulators' Revenge: The Future of Telecommuni-cations Deregulation. Washington: Cato Institute, 1998.
Crandall, Robert W.'' A Somewhat Better Connection. '' Regulation (Summer 2002): 22– 28.
Gasman, Lawrence. Telecompetition: The Free Market Road to the Information Super-highway. Washington: Cato Institute, 1994.
. '' Universal Service: The New Telecommunications Entitlements and Taxes. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 310, June 25, 1998, www. cato. org/ pubs/ pas/
pa-310es. html. Hazlett, Thomas W. '' Economic and Political Consequences of the 1996 Telecommunica-tions
Act. '' Regulation 23, no. 3 (2000): 36– 45, www. cato. org/ pubs/ regulation/ regv23n3/ hazlett. pdf.
Kahn, Alfred E. '' How to Treat the Costs of Shared Voice and Video Networks in a Post-Regulatory Age. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 264, November 27, 1998,
www. cato. org/ pubs/ pas/ pa-264es. html. Kwerel, Evan R., and John R. Williams. '' Moving toward a Market for Spectrum. ''
Regulation, no. 2 (1993): 53– 62.
Lee, William E. '' Open Access, Private Interests, and the Emerging Broadband Market. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 379, August 29, 2000, www. cato. org/ pubs/ pas/
pa-379es. html. Leighton, Wayne A. '' Broadband Deployment and the Digital Divide: A Primer. ''
Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 410, August 7, 2001, www. cato. org/ pubs/ pas/ pa-410es. html.
. '' Prescriptive Regulations and Telecommunications: Old Lessons Not Learned. '' Cato Journal 20, no. 3 (Winter 2001), www. cato. org/ pubs/ journal/ cj20n3/ cj20n3-4.
pdf. Thierer, Adam D. '' Forced Access Follies Continue: The Case of Special Access
Services. '' Cato Institute TechKnowledge, no. 32, January 28, 2002, www. cato. org/ tech/ tk/ 020128-tk. html.
. '' A 10-Point Agenda for Comprehensive Telecom Reform. '' Cato Institute Briefing Paper no. 63, May 8, 2001, www. cato. org/ pubs/ briefs/ bp-063es. html.
—Prepared by Adam Thierer
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42. Electricity Policy
Congress should
repeal the Federal Power Act of 1935 and abolish the Federal
Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC); repeal the 1935 Public Utility Holding Company Act (PUHCA)
and the 1978 Public Utility Regulatory Policy Act (PURPA); privatize federal power marketing authorities, the Tennessee
Valley Authority, and all federal power generation facilities; eliminate all tax preferences applicable to municipal power
companies and electricity cooperatives; eliminate all federal price subsidies, tax incentives, and regula-tory
preferences for renewable energy; declare that any state or municipal regulation of the generation,
transmission, distribution, or retail sale of electricity interferes with interstate trade and is a violation of the U. S. Constitution's
Commerce Clause; and require open, nondiscriminatory access to all federal public
rights-of-way for electricity transmission and distribution ser-vices, except when such services present a public safety
hazard.
The electricity regulatory system in the United States produced large
discrepancies in costs between states in the 1970s and 1980s. By the early
1990s many states with a large nuclear or independent power component
had high retail prices, and those that stuck with traditional coal-based
facilities (and hydropower) had low-cost electricity.
Even though the regulatory system did not protect consumers from
high-cost electricity, no one has proposed eliminating regulation. The
response to the cost discrepancy has been initiation of a policy of mandatory
open access to '' restructure'' regulation instead of eliminating it.
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Under mandatory open access, competition is introduced into the genera-tion
sector, but transmission and distribution systems remain regulated
monopolies to which generators have access at nondiscriminatory prices.
Transmission and Distribution: The Intellectual Discussion
The case for a competitive market in generation was accepted long
ago by academics. Academic discussion now is about how large a role
decentralized markets can play in the operation of the transmission system.
Some observers argue that, with the assistance of computer models,
decentralized trade between buyers and sellers of electricity can occur and
reach an efficient equilibrium without central direction as long as every
sale is accompanied by transmission rights that reflect the physical ability
of the transmission system to carry the flow.
Other observers believe the decentralized solution would entail enor-mous
transaction costs because of the many agents required to facilitate
the development and trading of transmission rights. Those people argue
that the inability of transmission rights to reflect the true effects of generator
output on the system would require central intervention anyway.
Another important issue in transmission policy is the identification and
funding of new transmission investment. Again, there are two sides to
the debate: one advocates centralized solutions and the other advocates
decentralized solutions. According to the latter view, consortia of genera-tors
would fund new investment and, in turn, get rights (that reflect the
physical ability of the transmission system to carry the flow according to
computer simulations) to inject power into or take power from the system
in proportion to their financial contributions.
Economist Paul Joskow offers the more traditional centralized view of
transmission investment:
Transmission investment decisions do not immediately strike me as being
ideally suited to relying entirely on the invisible hand. Transmission invest-ments
are lumpy, characterized by economies of scale and can have physical
impacts throughout the network. The combination of imperfectly defined
property rights, economies of scale and long-lived sunk costs for transmis-sion
investments, and imperfect competition in the supply of generating
services can lead to either underinvestment or overinvestment at particular
points on the network if we rely entirely on market forces [Chao and
Huntington, p. 24].
Even if the decentralized solution is imperfect, mandatory open access
is probably worse. The experience we have had with mandatory open
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access in telecommunications since 1996 should make us very wary about
going down the same road in electricity policy. Mandatory open access
eliminates the incentive for new infrastructure. Under the regime that
seems to be in place in the states that have restructured their electricity
regulations, large commercial users and independent generators are going
to demand that the transmission system serve their needs at rates determined
by public service commissions. As economist Robert Crandall says:
There is no limit to the ideas that I may have for using your property at
prices that are as low as I could obtain by building the facilities myself....
Unfortunately, this [open access policy] is based in large part on assuming
that sharing the infrastructure built under all of the distorted incentives
created by regulation will somehow lead to efficient competition.
Thus the right question to ask is, not whether decentralized transmission
investment would be optimal, but whether it would be good enough
to work.
Transmission and Distribution: The Political Discussion
The political discussion at the state and federal levels has not reflected
the intellectual discussion. Instead, it reflects conflicts that arise within
the mandatory-open-access paradigm.
Half the states are not actively considering deregulation because their
costs are low and stable because of extensive use of coal or hydropower
sources. Such states have little interest in developing more extensive
transmission systems to serve merchant power plants participating in the
interstate market. People who advocate mandatory open access (merchant
power producers and large industrial consumers) want an increased federal
regulatory role in transmission service to prevent vertically integrated
utilities from Balkanizing the national transmission market. But the manda-tory-
open-access lobby is not really on the side of the angels, despite their
pro-competition rhetoric, because they want the costs of new transmission
investment to be borne by all electricity ratepayers rather than by new
merchant generators.
A central question under mandatory open access is, How can we prevent
traditional utilities from favoring their own generators (to the extent they
do not divest them) through manipulation of access to and pricing of
transmission facilities that they also own? The predominant answer has
been to hand the operation of the transmission network to nonprofit enti-ties—
independent system operators— organized by the old utilities. But
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those operators are political institutions whose structure invites ineffi-ciency,
inconsistency, and dominance by transmission owners.
An alternative organizational model for transmission is a for-profit
transmission company regulated under '' incentive regulation, '' rather than
traditional command-and-control regulation, to promote dynamic effi-ciency.
Many people object to private for-profit transmission companies
because, until they face genuine rivalry, either from competing wires
systems or distributed generation from decentralized natural-gas genera-tors,
for-profit transmission companies would have an incentive to restrict
use of their lines and raise prices, as would any monopolist. Incentive
regulation overcomes such objections because it allows the company to
make more money by increasing than by decreasing throughput in the
transmission system.
After a transition period of incentive regulation, transmission and distri-bution
should be deregulated. Evidence does not suggest that regulation
by commission, which has given us excessively costly nuclear-power and
cogeneration contracts, has protected consumers in the ways that populist
rhetoric suggests.
There are several reasons to believe that the market power of unregulated
transmission and distribution companies would be less than conventional
wisdom suggests.
Competition might well arise from small turbines using natural gas
to generate electricity. Electricity transmission owners have nothing
to gain from alienating customers to the point where they switch to
the natural-gas alternative.
Before exclusive franchises were granted by governments, multiple
entrepreneurs were quite willing to generate and distribute electricity.
Mandatory open access to state and federally created rights-of-way
is a much less mischievous policy than is mandatory open access to
the wires themselves. The threat of such access may be sufficient to
induce incumbent electricity transmission companies to price their
services competitively.
Electricity Policy after California
No discussion of electricity policy would be complete without a discus-sion
of the events in California during 2000– 01. Large supply reductions
(hydro shortage and natural gas shortage) and large weather-related demand
increases (hot summer and very cold winter) simultaneously hit the state.
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None of those shocks was triggered by state policy. However, the price
increases resulting from decreased supply and increased demand were
made more severe by several characteristics of state policy.
First, California adopted regulations in 1994 (known as the RECLAIM
program) to control emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in southern Califor-nia.
In the winter of 1999, rights to emit NOx were selling for about $2
per pound. The widespread use of old, polluting, natural-gas turbines to
replace the lost hydropower rapidly depleted the fixed quota of NOx permits
available. By the summer of 2000, they were selling for $30 to $40 per
pound, a cost of 3 to 12 cents per kilowatt-hour, depending on the emissions
of the generating unit. In January 2001, California regulators waived NOx
permit requirements for power generators for the next three years, but the
damage had been done.
Second, a characteristic of the California electricity auction market also
created incentives for high rather than low market-clearing prices. The
rules of the auction allowed generators to offer different amounts of
electricity at different prices rather than all of their output at one price.
Under those rules, generators had the incentive to offer a small amount
of their output at very high prices because, if the high bid were accepted,
they would receive that price for all their output. And if the bid were not
accepted, the generators would lose only the sale of a small fraction of their
possible output. Normally such bidding behavior would be unprofitable
because the probability of the high bid's being accepted would be small,
but, in a very tight supply situation, the probability of the bid's being
accepted rises considerably, and the opportunity cost of the unsold
power falls.
Third, the operators of the California transmission grid placed an '' infi-nite''
value on keeping the grid operational. But retail price controls
prevented consumers from seeing the price of doing so. That, in turn,
induced generators to price high because they knew there would be no
reduction in demand as a consequence of their pricing behavior.
Some economists argue that market power (the withholding of output
from a low-cost facility to induce use of output from a high-cost facility)
explains some of the price increase. Their evidence is the large amount
of capacity offline in California in the winter of 2000– 01. Other economists
argue that the natural-gas units that were offline had never been intended
to run as continuously as they did in the summer of 2000 to replace the
hydro, and thus the maintenance rationale offered by the operators was
legitimate.
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Other explanations of the California debacle are not consistent with the
evidence. Environmentalists' resistance to new plants is not the cause of
too little supply. Supply did not increase at a rate greater than population
growth anywhere in the West (except Montana) including Nevada and
Arizona, which do not have strong consumer or environmental movements.
Some people have claimed that the state's reluctance to permit long-term
contracts with generators and the state requirement that electricity
be sold in a single price auction in which the highest bid sets the market
price are responsible for the high prices. Both claims are incorrect. Single
prices set by the producer with the highest costs are a feature of all
commodities markets. Long-term contracts would have simply altered who
suffered losses of wealth as the result of unanticipated supply and demand
shocks; such contracts could not have prevented the supply and demand
shocks from causing price increases for someone in the supply chain.
Long-term contracts are simply spot prices plus an insurance contract,
which cannot be less than spot prices alone.
Other states have not adopted better deregulation designs. They have
not had crises because they do not rely on hydro, nor do they use natural
gas for electricity production in the winter. Many have retail price controls
combined with wholesale markets and thus are vulnerable to a California-style
imbalance between the two rates although many have fuel-cost pass-through
provisions.
An important lesson from California is that price matters. Demand
would have been dramatically lower if some customers had faced the
actual market price for electricity rather than fixed retail prices. Industry
consultant Eric Hirst argues that if only 20 percent of the total retail
demand faced actual market hourly prices, and as a response to those
prices reduced demand by 20 percent, the resulting 4 percent drop in
aggregate demand would have cut hourly prices by almost 50 percent. In
California 8,000 megawatts of commercial and industrial load have '' real-time''
meters, which would allow hourly pricing, but they are not billed
on that basis. The public utility commission could solve the problem by
instituting real-time pricing.
The important lesson from California is that electricity markets should
be fully deregulated. Wholesale deregulation with retail price controls is
a recipe for disaster.
What Should Be Done?
The entire existing federal apparatus for regulating electricity should
be repealed because the market failure rationales for its existence do not
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exist. The Federal Power Act, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
(FERC), PURPA (a limited version of mandatory access, whose main
function has been to force utilities to purchase power from third parties
at nonmarket prices), and the archaic PUHCA (which strictly controls the
ownership and management structures of electric utilities) all should go.
Congress should also ensure a level economic playing field by privatiz-ing
the federal power marketing authorities, the Tennessee Valley Author-ity,
and all federal power generation facilities; and tax and fiscal preferences
granted to municipal power companies and electricity cooperatives should
be terminated.
All federal price subsidies, tax incentives, and regulatory preferences for
renewable energy should also be eliminated. The environmental benefits of
renewable energy are dramatically overstated. In fact, every single renew-able
energy source has drawn legitimate opposition from environmental
organizations. If and when fossil fuels become more scarce, the electricity
industry, without assistance, will turn to more abundant (i. e., cheaper)
alternatives.
The price advantage currently enjoyed by fossil fuels cannot be attributed
to present or past subsidies. Research suggests that, historically, the actions
of government have kept petroleum prices above rather than below an
unregulated market price. The only fuel that government has consistently
subsidized is nuclear, but the effect of the subsidies has been to displace
some coal and natural gas production of electricity and raise rather than
lower the price of electricity.
The most damaging electricity regulations, however, emanate from state
public utility commissions that restrict entry and set rates. Should states
have the right to create restrictions on entry (franchises) in the electric
utility market? May the federal government prevent states from harming
consumers?
Investor-owned utilities and their trade association argue that the federal
government may not prevent states from regulating utilities. But precedent
exists for such intervention. Congress deregulated interstate trucking in
1980, but state regulation of intrastate trucking continued, and its main
effect was to restrict entry by new firms and raise the price of shipping
for consumers. In 1994 Congress prohibited states from regulating motor
carriers, except household movers, and no constitutional questions have
been raised.
While many legislators are (rightly) reluctant to interfere in state regula-tory
affairs, the Constitution's Commerce Clause gives Congress the power
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to remove barriers to interstate trade erected by state lawmakers. Congress
should therefore preempt all state or municipal regulations that control
the generation, transmission, distribution, or retail sale of electricity.
Suggested Readings
Awerbuch, Shimon, Leonard Hyman, and Andrew Vesey. Unlocking the Benefits of Restructuring: A Blueprint for Transmission. Vienna, Va.: Public Utilities Reports
Incorporated, 1999. Borenstein, Severin, and James Bushnell. '' Electricity Restructuring: Deregulation or
Reregulation? '' Regulation 23, no. 2 (2000): 46– 52. Brennan, Tim. '' Questioning the Conventional Wisdom. '' Regulation 24, no. 3
(2001): 63– 69. Chao, Hung-po, and Hillard Huntington, eds. Designing Competitive Electricity Markets.
Boston: Kluwer, 1998. Crandall, Robert W. '' Managed Competition in U. S. Telecommunications. '' Washington:
AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies Working Paper no. 99-1, March 1999.
Hale, Douglas R, Thomas J. Overbye, and Thomas Leckey. '' Competition Requires Transmission Capacity. '' Regulation 23, no. 2 (2000): 40– 45.
Lenard, Thomas M. '' FERC's New Regulatory Agenda. '' Regulation 25, no. 3 (2002). Michaels, Robert J. '' Can Non-profit Transmission Be Independent? '' Regulation 23,
no. 3 (2000): 61– 66. Rassenti, Stephen. '' Turning Off the Lights. '' Regulation 24, no. 3 (2001): 70– 76.
Taylor, Jerry, and Peter VanDoren. '' California's Electricity Crisis: What's Going On, Who's to Blame, and What to Do. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 406, July 3, 2001.
VanDoren, Peter M. '' The Deregulation of Electricity: A Primer. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 320, October 6, 1998.
—Prepared by Peter VanDoren
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43. Environmental Protection
Congress should
establish a mechanism by which states can apply for regulatory
waivers from the Environmental Protection Agency in order to allow states some flexibility in establishing environmental
priorities and to facilitate experiments in innovative regulatory approaches;
replace the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide
Act and the Toxic Substances Control Act with a consumer products labeling program under the auspices of the Food and
Drug Administration; repeal the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compen-sation,
and Liability Act and privatize the cleanup of Super-fund sites;
replace the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act with mini-mal
standards for discharge into groundwater aquifers; privatize federal lands by granting ownership rights to existing
users and auctioning off the remaining lands; eliminate federal subsidies and programs that exacerbate envi-ronmental
damage; and replace the Endangered Species Act and section 404 of the
Clean Water Act with a federal biological trust fund.
Federal environmental policy is horribly off track, and the debate over
what to do about it is characterized by a lack of rigorous thinking. Any
discussion of how to reform this or that statute must begin with a discussion
of why the statute is there in the first place. Only then can an informed
discussion begin about the appropriate role of government in environmental
protection. The details of that role must, of necessity, come last.
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The Theory of Environmental Regulation
Air sheds, watersheds, groundwater, scenic lands, and ecologically
important but sensitive ecosystems are widely considered '' public goods. ''
That is, in an unregulated marketplace, people who pay to '' consume''
environmental goods and services (say, those who purchase a conservation
easement for an ecologically important wetland) are unable to keep those
who don't pay from enjoying the benefits of that purchase. This leads to
widespread '' free riding'' and less-than-efficient investments in environ-mental
goods.
This '' market failure'' necessitates government intervention. While there
are numerous ways that the government could intervene in environmental
marketplaces to address market failure, the method employed by the federal
government is public ownership of air, water, and subsurface resources
as well as of some sensitive ecosystems. Congress exercises its power
over those resources by delegating to executive agencies the authority to
determine how resources can and can't be used— that is, by establishing
pollution and public land use regulations— usually, but not always, on the
basis of assessments of human health risk. The Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) is further empowered to determine the exact manner in
which regulated entities are to go about meeting pollution standards—
usually, but not always, dictating the installation of particular control
devices or technologies.
Accurate, timely, and accessible information about environmental expo-sures
is also considered by some to be a public good. Absent such laws
as the Toxic Substances Control Act and the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide,
and Rodenticide Act, individuals, some people think, would be unable to
effectively police their exposures to dangerous chemicals. A variation of
this argument contends that it is so costly and time-consuming for people
to gain access to the environmental health information necessary for intelli-gent
decisionmaking that government must act in the individual's stead
and make those decisions for society as a whole.
Debates about the regulation of pollution generally begin with an accep-tance
of the above claims. The political arguments today are over the
details:
Do concentrations of chemical x in the environment truly pose a
health risk to the public? If so, we regulate. If not, we don't.
Should environmental regulations have to pass a cost/ benefit test?
Should government tell firms exactly how to go about meeting federal
environmental standards, or should government simply dictate the
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permissible concentration of pollutants in a given air shed or water-shed
and allow firms some degree of flexibility in complying with
those standards?
How stringently should regulations be enforced, and who should do
the enforcing— the EPA, state governments, environmental organiza-tions
through third-party lawsuits, or some combination of the three?
Debates over public land issues are less complicated but just as heated.
Both the political left and the political right accept the idea that public
ownership of scenic lands and sensitive ecosystems is necessary to address
the inability to fully prevent free riders from enjoying the benefits of the
conservation activity of others.
For example, many if not most Americans would pay some money to
ensure that the Grand Canyon remains unexploited for commercial pur-poses.
Yet only a subset of those Americans might contribute money for
that purpose because they know that others will do so. Environmentalists
thus worry that, without public ownership of land, the incentive to free
ride on the activism of others will lead to a suboptimal provision of
ecological preservation.
The Real Environmental Debate
Although environmental debates sound like they're arguments about
science and public health (with a smattering of economics tossed in),
they're really debates about preferences and whose preferences should be
imposed on society. Although participants argue that '' sound science''
ought to determine whose preferences determine the standards (and that
their science is better than their opponents'), science cannot referee the
debate.
Consider the dispute about the regulation of potentially unhealthy pollut-ants,
the central mission of the EPA. The agency examines toxicological
and epidemiological data to ascertain the exposure level at which suspect
substances impose measurable human health risks. Even assuming that
such analyses are capable of providing the requisite information (a matter,
incidentally, that is hotly debated within the scientific and public health
community), who is to say whether one risk tolerance is preferable to
another?
The amount of resources one is willing to spend on risk avoidance is
ultimately subjective. Everyone's risk tolerance is different. Scientists can
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help inform our decisions, but they cannot point us to the '' correct''
decision.
Should experts— acting on behalf of regulatory agencies— decide what
sort of environmental quality people should or should not have a right to
consume? In no other area of the economy do scientists have the power
to rule in such a manner. After all, people are allowed to consume all
kinds of things— power crystals, magnets, age-defying vitamins, and
organic food— that scientists, doctors, and public health officials think are
silly or even potentially counterproductive.
Many people, perhaps even a majority of voting Americans, want to
secure cleaner air and cleaner water regardless of whether those improve-ments
significantly reduce human health risks. Under the present political
regime, however, no such improvements can occur without some alleged
scientific justification. That is why people who wish to improve environ-mental
quality are forced to embrace whatever science they can— no
matter how dubious— to get what they want. They should not, however,
have to engage in such scientific gymnastics to secure desired goods
or services.
The debate over public land use is likewise garbed in the dubious cloth
of science. How do we know whether public lands are more '' valuable''
if left wild than if developed in some way? While there are methods, such
as contingent valuation surveys, to measure the '' existence value'' of any
particular parcel of land, they yield highly dubious information for the
simple reason that what people say they're willing to pay in surveys rarely
comports with their actual behavior in the marketplace.
Likewise, there's no objectively correct way to measure the economic
benefits provided by certain ecological services (such as water filtration
services provided by wetlands) because so many of the resources affected
are, at the moment, outside the marketplace. The debate, again, is more
a battle of subjective preferences than a battle of ecological economics
simply because the information necessary to inform the latter is unobtain-able
by government.
The Case for Preference Neutrality
A government that is fully respectful of the rights of individuals to live
their lives as they wish (as long as they respect the rights of others to do
likewise) would be neutral regarding the subjective preferences of its
citizens. People who are more risk tolerant than others should have a right
to exercise their preferences, and those who are less risk tolerant than
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others should have that same right. This reasonable premise has some
striking policy implications because the present order is most definitely
not neutral regarding environmental preferences.
Preference neutrality works well when it comes to the consumption of
private goods, such as those regulated by the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide,
and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Toxic Substances Control Act
(TSCA). It does not work well, however, when it comes to the consumption
of public environmental goods, which pose a far more difficult problem.
Within the same city, for instance, one person cannot exercise his prefer-ence
for cleaner air without infringing upon another's preference for air
quality as it is at present. After all, nothing is free, and people vary
(legitimately) in their willingness to trade off environmental goods and
services for other goods and services.
A policy founded on preference neutrality requires that we do as little
violence to minority preferences as possible. Since some majority will,
of necessity, be imposing its preferences on some minority, the only way
to provide safeguards for minority preferences is to require some sort of
supermajority consensus before decisions about public goods are made.
Reform the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts
As noted earlier, within limits, there are no right or wrong air or water
quality standards. Political leaders need not constantly war over those
issues. Accepting public preferences for cleaner air and water— even
without sufficient scientific justification— still leaves a great amount of
room for productive reform.
The Problem with Command-and-Control Regulation
There is little reason for government to prescribe exactly how firms
are to go about complying with pollution standards. Command-and-control
regulations, which require regulators to determine exactly which technolo-gies
and what manufacturing methods are to be adopted for pollution
control in every single facility in the nation, place on public officials
informational requirements that are impossible to meet in the real world.
This task is complicated by the fact that every air shed and watershed has
different carrying capacities for different pollutants.
Individual plant managers have better incentives to discover the most
efficient ways to control pollution at their facilities than do EPA technicians
and consultants. That is the case, not only because those managers have
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more direct knowledge of their facilities and the technology of production,
but because competition forces cost minimization, and even the most
dedicated EPA official isn't going to lie awake nights searching for new
solutions to pollution control problems.
Economist Tom Tietenberg reports that empirical studies show that
'' performance-based'' standards— those that require regulators simply to
decide how much pollution can be allowed from a facility and leave it to
the facility to meet that standard in whatever way it desires— result in
uniformly lower control costs. A 1990 joint Amoco-EPA study of a
Yorktown, Virginia, oil refinery, for instance, found that federal environ-mental
standards could be met at 20 percent of current costs if the refinery
were allowed to adopt alternatives to EPA mandates.
The only real objection to performance-based regulation is that policing
compliance is problematic. That's because regulatory flexibility requires
credible monitoring data to ensure compliance. Yet comprehensive moni-toring
produces reams of data that are difficult for regulators to thoroughly
assess. Monitoring can also be extremely expensive, which gives firms
an additional incentive to circumvent the law. Environmentalists support
the present command-and-control regime because technology-based stan-dards
are easier to police than are actual emissions.
Still, the excessive regulatory costs associated with technology-based
standards and the rent-seeking mischief that naturally results from such
regimes have persuaded most environmental economists that the economic
gains promised by regulatory flexibility more than offset the increased
difficulty of policing compliance. Experiments with such market-oriented
reforms— for example, the sulfur emissions trading program instituted by
the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments to address acid rain— have not
resulted in any increase in regulatory noncompliance. The cost of beefing
up the EPA compliance office is tiny compared with the gains produced
by regulatory flexibility.
Provide for State Regulatory Waivers
Despite the well-known problems associated with command-and-control
environmental regulation, it's unlikely that Congress will find the political
capital necessary to reform thousands of pages of counterproductive rules
and regulations found in more than a dozen sprawling environmental
statutes, given the entrenched special interests that benefit politically and
economically from their existence. Accordingly, Congress should take a
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page from the welfare reform experience and allow states to appeal for
waivers from EPA in order to facilitate experiments in regulatory policy.
Case Western law professor Jonathan Adler proposes that Congress
adopt a mechanism similar to section 160 of the 1996 Telecommunications
Act to facilitate this reform. Section 160 allows telecommunication compa-nies
to submit a request for a regulatory waiver from the Federal Communi-cations
Commission. The FCC '' shall forebear from applying any regula-tion
or any provision'' of the act to a company or class of service providers
if the FCC determines upon review of the petition that
'' enforcement of such regulation or provision is not necessary'' to
ensure that rates '' are just and reasonable and are not unreasonably
discriminatory, ''
'' enforcement of such regulation or provision is not necessary for
the protection of consumers, '' or
'' forbearance from applying such provision or regulation is consistent
with the public interest. ''
The FCC has one year to respond or the petition is deemed granted,
and any decision to grant or deny forbearance is subject to judicial review
under the Administrative Procedure Act.
Adapting a mechanism akin to section 160 of the 1996 Telecommunica-tion
Act to the environmental arena would mean allowing states to apply
for forbearance from any standard or requirement administered by EPA.
The state would be expected to submit supporting material detailing the
basis for the request and explain why the waiver would serve the public
interest. EPA would then provide public notice, seek comment from inter-ested
parties, and make a call one way or the other within one year pending
judicial review under the aegis of the Administrative Procedure Act.
Some states may wish to experiment with market-oriented emissions
trading programs or pollution taxes in lieu of the existing federally imposed
command-and-control regimen. Other states might privatize some aspects
of the environmental commons and allow civil courts to police accusations
of pollution trespass. Others might adopt more limited performance-based
regulatory reforms. A few states might even propose reallocation of regula-tory
efforts in order to concentrate on some relatively more important
environmental issues instead of others. A policy of preference neutrality
suggests tolerance regarding any such proposals.
Allowing '' 50 regulatory flowers to bloom'' admittedly entails some
degree of risk. Although some state experiments will likely bear economic
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and environmental fruit, others will probably fail to meet expectations.
Such risks will certainly engender political opposition to the entire enter-prise,
but politicians should remember that useful innovations are virtually
impossible without the risk of failure. In fact, the risks of failure underscore
the value of decentralized policy experiments since localized policy failures
would have far less damaging consequences than federal policy failures.
Moreover, failed experiments provide useful information, cautioning
reformers in other states about problems to avoid. Successful state experi-ments,
on the other hand, could become models for reform elsewhere.
Repeal FIFRA and TSCA
A policy of preference neutrality would be most easily applicable to
consumer preferences that do not directly affect the rights of others to
exercise alternative preferences (so-called private goods). TSCA and
FIFRA impose politically derived risk preferences (and their related costs)
on individuals without respect for those who are more risk tolerant than
the political majority. Accordingly, both statutes should be abolished.
Of course, some people argue that the cost of obtaining good risk
information is too great. That's not altogether obvious (a plethora of private,
third-party reporting organizations, such as Underwriters Laboratories,
Consumer's Union, Green Seal, various kosher and halal food certification
groups, the Better Business Bureau, and the Good Housekeeping Institute,
are well-known and on the job today), and there are remedies available
beyond the uniform imposition of politically derived risk tolerances. Man-datory
labeling standards— perhaps accompanied by Food and Drug
Administration advisories— would address the concern about this alleged
market imperfection and do minimal violence to the marketplace and the
rights of individual consumers (for a detailed discussion of this recommen-dation,
see Chapter 39).
Repeal CERCLA
The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Lia-bility
Act (CERCLA), commonly known as '' Superfund, '' addresses the
potential risks posed by the past disposal of hazardous wastes. Most
scientists and public health officials agree that the risks posed by sites not
yet cleaned up under CERCLA are virtually nonexistent. Although those
sites might pose a hazard if they were converted to different uses— say,
if a school with a dirt playground were built on top of an old Superfund
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site— such concerns are easily addressed by not converting such sites to
problematic uses.
In reality, CERCLA is an extremely expensive land reclamation project,
dedicated to turning contaminated land, which at present poses little danger
of harm to nearby residents, into land as pure and clean as the driven
snow. Congress should acknowledge that some sites are simply not worth
reclaiming; containment and isolation should be permitted as an alternative.
Accordingly, CERCLA should be abolished. Superfund sites and poten-tial
Superfund sites that have yet to be addressed should be privatized in
a reverse Dutch auction in which government offers to pay potential
bidders for assuming ownership of and responsibility for the land. The
amount offered escalates until some private party is willing to accept the
deal. Owners would then assume full liability for any future damage that
might occur; that would set up the proper incentives for the pri-vate
remediation or isolation of potentially dangerous environmental
contaminants.
Repeal RCRA
The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) regulates the
commercial use and disposal of potentially toxic chemicals primarily as
a means of protecting groundwater aquifers from contamination. Yet
RCRA is not necessary to remedy any traditional environmental market
failure.
Groundwater aquifers are not a public good. Ownership is easily created
through unitization, the same means employed by owners of oil wells to
allocate property rights across geographically disperse fields. Owners of
aquifers are quite capable of restricting consumption to people who pay
for water and policing the integrity of their aquifers through the tort system.
But even if groundwater resources remain in government hands, there's
little reason for such incredibly prescriptive and excessively costly regula-tions
as the kind imposed by RCRA, a statute that stipulates detailed
cradle-to-grave management standards for thousands of substances. Better
to repeal RCRA and replace it with a minimal discharge standard. That
is, prohibit significant discharges of pollutants (as defined by government)
into groundwater and impose heavy fines and penalties— perhaps even
shutdown orders— on firms discovered to be in violation of the standard.
A requirement that potential dischargers maintain special liability insur-ance
further ensures that firms have strong incentives to minimize the
chance of contamination (insurance companies would be reluctant to issue
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coverage to those whose practices put the insurance company at risk).
Public groundwater monitoring costs would be borne by industry, prefera-bly
through a special tax levied on the purchase of liability coverage.
Privatize the Federal Lands
Fully 31 percent of all land in the United States— 662 million acres—
are owned by the federal government, and 95 percent of those acres are
under the control of either the Department of the Interior or the Department
of Agriculture. Those holdings are concentrated in 11 western states. For
example, 88 percent of Nevada, 67 percent of Alaska, 68 percent of Utah,
63 percent of Idaho, 50 percent of California, 49 percent of Wyoming,
and 48 percent of Oregon are owned by the federal government.
The federal government also owns a vast estate of commercially mar-keted
resources: 50 percent of the nation's softwood timber, 12 percent
of grazing lands, and 30 percent of all coal reserves. Approximately 30
percent of the nation's coal production; 6 to 7 percent of domestic gas
and oil production; and 90 percent of copper, 80 percent of silver, and
almost 100 percent of all nickel production are from federal lands.
That state of affairs is far more disturbing than most observers realize.
First, as University of Colorado law professor Dale Oesterle observes,
'' The federal ownership of large amounts of land, much of it with signifi-cant
commodity producing potential, puts the federal government at the
core of our national market system, affecting the prices in nationally
significant markets and myriad down-stream products. '' Indeed, the federal
government owns a very large slice of the country's means of production,
which fundamentally subverts the free-market system.
Second, the federal government is an extremely poor manager of
resources. The cost of its grazing, timber, and water management programs
greatly exceeds the commercial revenues. As virtually all ecologists con-cede,
the federal government has been a horrible steward of environmental
resources. Subsidies for both commercial and recreational industries have
distorted markets (sometimes dramatically) and done great harm to the
ecosystems of the western United States.
The most neutral way (from a wealth standpoint) to divest public lands
is to recognize the implicit claims that different groups of citizens have
on the federal estate. Lands at present devoted to the national parks and
recreation would be simply given to nonprofit organizations representing
such users. Lands now devoted to resource industries— such as the public
grazing lands and forests traditionally devoted to timber operations—
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would be given to present permit holders and users. Lands that are support-ing
mixed use or no use at all would be auctioned off over a set period
of time. Every American would be issued an equal share of land scrip,
which would be redeemable only in a public land auction. Individuals
would be free to buy, sell, or donate their scrip as they pleased, but only
the government-issued scrip would be accepted as currency during the
land auction.
The virtue of this reform is that it minimizes conflict by accepting
current political arrangements regarding public resource use, and it also
allows those arrangements to change via postauction exchange. The bene-fits
of privatization would be captured entirely by the American people.
End Subsidies for Resource Exploitation
The foremost engine of environmental destruction in America today is
not the private sector but federal and state government. A great deal of
environmental harm could be alleviated by eliminating the subsidized use
of natural resources.
Five '' Brownest'' Programs in the Budget
Agricultural subsidies are responsible for excessive pesticide, fungicide, and
herbicide use with corresponding increases in non-point-source pollution.
Sugar import quotas, tariffs, and price-support loans sustain a domestic sugar
industry that might not otherwise exist; the destruction of the Everglades is the
ecological result.
Electricity subsidies via the power marketing administrations and the Tennessee
Valley Authority artificially boost demand for energy and thereby are responsible
for millions of tons of low-level radioactive waste and the disappearance of
wild rivers in the West.
Irrigation subsidies and socialized water services, which generally underwrite
half of the cost of consumption, have done incalculable damage to western
habitat while artificially promoting uneconomic agriculture with all the attendant
environmental consequences. They also lead to tremendous overuse of water
resources and worsen periodic shortages.
Federal construction grant projects— such as the river maintenance, flood control,
and agricultural reclamation undertakings of the Army Corps of Engineers—
allow uneconomic projects to go forward and cause an array of serious environ-mental
problems.
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Repeal the Endangered Species Act
As Chapter 15 argues, compensating property owners for takings meant
to secure public goods such as biological diversity is a simple matter of
fairness and constitutional justice. But protecting property rights is also a
necessary prerequisite for ecological protection. Property owners who
expect to experience economic losses if their property is identified as
ecologically important are tempted to destroy that habitat or species popula-tion
before public officials become aware of its existence. Numerous
analysts, from people at the National Wilderness Institute to ecological
economist Randal O'Toole, conclude that the '' shoot, shovel, and shut
up'' dynamic largely explains why the Endangered Species Act (ESA)
has failed to either stabilize listed populations or return a single species
to health.
The ESA, which prevents private property owners from making certain
uses of their land in order to secure the '' public good'' of biological
diversity, should thus be repealed since it provides no compensation to
landowners for public takings. Instead, a federal biological trust should
be established that would be funded out of general revenues at whatever
level Congress found appropriate. The trust fund would be used to purchase
conservation easements (in a voluntary and noncoercive fashion) from
private landowners in order to protect the habitat of endangered species.
The virtue of such a reform is that landowners would have incentives
rather than disincentives to protect species habitat. Moreover, the cost of
biological preservation would become more transparent, which allows
better-informed decisionmaking about the use of resources. Finally, such
a reform would decriminalize the '' ranching'' of endangered species for
commercial purposes. The ESA prohibits such practices out of a misguided
belief that any commercial use of an endangered species inevitably contrib-utes
to its decline. Yet the experience of the African elephant and other
threatened species belies that concern and strongly suggests that, if
private parties are allowed to own and trade animals as commodities,
commercial demand is a critical component of population protection.
Similarly, section 404 of the Clean Water Act— the provision that
ostensibly empowers the EPA to regulate wetlands— should be repealed.
Like the ESA, it takes private property out of otherwise inoffensive
uses for a public purpose and provides disincentives for wetland conser-vation.
Protection of wetlands habitat should be left to the federal
biological trust fund.
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The '' Greenest'' Political Agenda Is Economic Growth
There are a number of reasons why economic growth is perhaps the
most important of all environmental policies. First, it takes a healthy,
growing economy to afford the pollution control technologies necessitated
by environmental protection. A poorer nation, for example, could scarcely
have afforded the nearly $200 billion this nation has spent on sewage
treatment plants over the past 30 years.
Second, growing consumer demand for environmental goods (parks;
recreational facilities; land for hunting, fishing, and hiking; and urban air
and water quality) is largely responsible for the improving quantity and
quality of both public and private ecological resources. Virtually all analysts
agree that, for the vast majority of consumers, environmental amenities
are '' luxury goods'' that are in greatest demand in the wealthiest societies.
Economic growth is thus indirectly responsible for improving environmen-tal
quality in that it creates the conditions necessary for increased demand
for (and the corresponding increase in supply of) environmental quality.
Third, advances in technology, production methods, and manufacturing
practices— both a cause and a consequence of economic growth— have
historically resulted in less, not more, pollution. Even advances in nonenvi-ronmental
technologies and industries have indirectly resulted in more
efficient resource consumption and less pollution.
Conclusion
Science can inform individual preferences but not resolve environmental
conflicts. Environmental goods and services, to the greatest extent possible,
should be treated like other goods and services in the marketplace. People
should be free to secure their preferences about the consumption of environ-mental
goods such as clean air or clean water regardless of whether some
scientists think such preferences are legitimate or not. Likewise, people
should be free, to the greatest extent possible, to make decisions consistent
with their own risk tolerances regardless of scientific or even public
opinion.
Policies that override individual preferences in favor of political prefer-ences
are incapable of pleasing a majority of people or resolving subjective
disputes. No matter what environmental risk thresholds are set, only those
at the political mean will be pleased. The best we can do when it comes
to the governance of public goods is to establish mechanisms that allow
people the right to secure their preferences to the greatest extent possible.
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The way to efficiently accomplish that task is to establish markets that
allow people to buy and sell the right to use what are now public resources.
To whom those rights are initially distributed does not matter from an
economic standpoint or from a philosophical standpoint because no one
group has any better claim than another to exploit public goods. It does,
however, matter from a wealth standpoint: some parties will win and some
will lose depending on the method of divestiture chosen. The path of least
political resistance is to acknowledge current resource use arrangements
at the beginning of the reform process.
Suggested Readings
Adler, Jonathan. '' Let Fifty Flowers Bloom: Transforming the States into Laboratories of Environmental Policy. '' Roundtable Paper Series, American Enterprise Institute
Federalism Project, September 20, 2001. Anderson, Terry, and Donald Leal. Free Market Environmentalism: Revised Edition.
New York: Palgrave, 2001. Anderson, Terry, et al. '' How and Why to Privatize Federal Lands. '' Cato Institute
Policy Analysis no. 363, December 9, 1999. Beckerman, Wilfred. Through Green-Colored Glasses: Environmentalism Reconsidered.
Washington: Cato Institute, 1996. DeLong, James. Out of Bounds, Out of Control: Regulatory Enforcement at the EPA.
Washington: Cato Institute, 2002. . '' Privatizing Superfund: How to Clean Up Hazardous Waste. '' Cato Institute
Policy Analysis no. 247, December 18, 1995. Goklany, Indur. Clearing the Air: The Real Story of the War on Air Pollution. Washington:
Cato Institute, 1999. Stroup, Richard. Eco-Nomics. Washington: Cato Institute, 2003, forthcoming.
Tietenberg, Tom. Environmental and Natural Resource Economics. New York: Harper-Collins, 1992.
VanDoren, Peter. Cancer, Chemicals, and Choices: Risk Reduction through Markets. Washington: Cato Institute, 1999.
Yilmaz, Yesim. '' Private Regulation: A Real Alternative for Regulatory Reform. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 303, April 20, 1998
—Prepared by Jerry Taylor
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44. Environmental Health: Risks and Reality
Congress should
take back the regulatory authority it has delegated to the Envi-ronmental
Protection Agency; transfer responsibility for the safety of chemicals to industry;
address the question, What is an acceptable level of risk?
reexamine the acceptable risk level it set in the Food Quality
Protection Act; and strip the EPA of its research functions.
Humans have always linked the environment to disease, and investiga-tions
of those links have led to important triumphs over infectious diseases.
Investigations of possible links between chemicals in the environment
and human diseases— cancer in particular— have been politically popular.
They have also been costly and fruitless fiascoes. Congress faces a clear
choice: It can continue funding the wasteful programs at the Environmental
Protection Agency and elsewhere that are predicated on the belief that
environmental chemicals are a health risk worth the expenditure of billions
of dollars. Or it can find out, for itself and the public, what those programs
accomplish and act on that information to restore some measure of sanity
to environmental policy.
Triumph: The Environment and Infectious Diseases
Humans recognized that air and water harbored diseases long before
there was any understanding of the mechanisms of disease transmission.
The Italian mala aria ('' bad air'' or '' miasma'') came into English as
'' malaria. '' People learned to avoid damp places, but '' bad air'' wasn't
to blame. The subsequent discovery that certain mosquitoes that breed in
damp or wet places spread the microbes that cause the disease led to
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malaria control. In 1854 the physician John Snow determined that London
residents who purchased water from a particular water company were
likely to develop cholera. He inferred that a '' cholera poison'' was present
in the water of the people who had become sick, and using water from
other sources greatly reduced the incidence of cholera (the organism that
causes cholera was not identified until 1883).
By mid-20th century, microorganisms— viruses, bacteria, amoebas, and
so on— that are sometimes present in air, water, soil, and food had been
identified as the causes of most diseases. Sanitation— the provision of
clean drinking water and well-engineered sewage and waste disposal—
along with immunization programs reduced the toll of diseases that had
been the big killers of infants, children, and women in childbirth and had
been responsible for more deaths in the world's soldiery than all the clubs,
spears, bullets, bombs, and shells in history. Better surgery and medical
care, especially the discovery and production of antibiotics, gave mankind
the upper hand over formerly fatal or disabling traumatic injuries and
infections.
To be sure, many diseases, although less common than before, persist,
and the last few decades have seen some major unpleasant surprises
such as AIDS and the emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. By any
measure, however, identification of disease agents that are transmitted
through air, water, and soil has opened the door to controlling them.
Hubris and Political Expediency: Chemicals in the Environment and Cancer
The inevitable byproduct of control of infectious diseases was that more
people lived to the ages at which they were likely to develop diseases
that are common in the elderly. Nowhere was that clearer than in the
soaring numbers of deaths caused by cancer. By the late 1960s, environ-mental
activists, politicians, and scientists of various stripes loudly pro-claimed
that the country was caught in a terrifying and growing '' cancer
epidemic'' and that chemicals in the environment were responsible.
The conjecture that environmental chemicals were causing cancer was
based on two observations: workers in a few occupations, who had been
exposed to very high concentrations of some chemicals, had increased
risks of cancer, and greatly increased chemical production during and after
World War II had resulted in more chemicals in the air, water, and
soil. No causal link, however, was demonstrated between environmental
chemicals and cancer.
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The cry '' The environment causes 90 [or 80 or 70] percent of cancer! ''
was frightening, but it carried a promise. Simply reducing exposures to
environmental chemicals promised to eliminate much of the cancer that
plagued the nation. The promise was very appealing to policymakers, who
saw an opportunity to do something about a dreaded disease. The policies
enacted when the promise shone brightest persist, and they need changing.
First of all, there was (and is) no cancer epidemic in the sense that the
disease was (or is) becoming more common. As was well-known to
scientists by 1981, the control of infectious diseases had resulted in more
people reaching the ages at which cancer has always been common, but
the frequency of cancer had not increased in any age group.
Even so, wasn't it possible that environmental chemicals were a major
cause of cancer? The answer, again available in 1981, was no. At worst,
chemical pollution of air, water, and soil was associated with 2 percent
of cancers. In remarkable agreement, EPA scientists who examined the
same question in 1986 estimated that chemical pollutants were associated
with 1 to 3 percent of all cancers.
Before and during the time that science was deflating the myths of the
'' cancer epidemic'' and the environmental causes of cancer, President
Nixon established the EPA (in 1970) and Congress passed a number of
laws (in the 1970s) that directed the EPA to regulate environmental chemi-cals
that cause cancer. By 1981 there was no reason to expect that any
action of the EPA could have much effect on cancer, but the agency, with
congressional provision of funding, has established a great risk assess-ment
enterprise.
EPA-funded scientists and, far more often, scientists who work for
companies that must comply with EPA regulations, stuff laboratory rats
and mice with near-lethal amounts of chemicals to see if the chemicals
cause cancer. Regardless of the mismatch between the huge doses of
chemicals administered to animals and human exposures, which are often
thousands of times lower, risk assessors, again in accordance with EPA
guidelines, estimate the cancer risk the chemicals pose to humans.
That procedure '' identifies'' plenty of carcinogens. About 50 percent
of all tested chemicals, whether naturally occurring in fruits and vegetables
and human metabolism or the products of the chemical industry, cause
cancer in the tests. Although the EPA directs its attention to the synthetic
chemicals because it can regulate those, exposures to naturally occurring
carcinogens (as identified in animal tests) are far higher.
One of the foundations of the EPA's cancer risk assessments has been
the assumption that any exposure to a carcinogenic chemical, no matter
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how small, increases the risk of cancer. As a result, one critical point of
the EPA's policies has been the definition of an acceptable level of risk.
The usual acceptable level is an estimated one additional cancer case in
a million people.
It is unclear where the '' one-in-a-million'' number came from, and the
suggestion that it's because no lover ever said, '' you're one in a hundred
thousand'' seems as good as any. Whatever its origins, that level is
a major determinant of the stringency, costs, and expected benefits of
regulations. Regulatory costs are enormous and benefits are very uncertain
and tiny, at best.
EPA regulations, most of them directed at carcinogens, cost about $8
million for each estimated year of life saved. That is 400 times more
expensive than medical care, which saves a year of life for less than
$20,000, on average. Although the Office of Management and Budget
values a human life at $5.5 million, the EPA's regulations require the
expenditure of about 1.5 times as much money to save one estimated year
of life. Whether EPA regulations save anything at all is far from clear.
Most EPA risk estimates are based on animal tests, and, to its credit, the
EPA acknowledges that those tests may be completely misleading about
human risk, in which case, human risk may be zero. If the risk is zero,
spending a dollar to reduce it is a complete waste.
But haven't there been benefits? Experts on the causes, prevention, and
treatment of cancer have provided the clearest answer. If there are any
benefits, they are so tiny that they cannot be seen or measured. University
and federal scientists have verified that the rates of new cancer cases and
cancer deaths have been falling since about 1990 because of decreased
smoking, increased standards of living, and, probably, better diets. Mortal-ity
has fallen because of improvements in diagnosis and treatment.
Nowhere in the analysis of the decreases is there mention of environmental
chemicals or their regulation.
The EPA can claim no successes in terms of lives saved or diseases
prevented. It has produced no breakthroughs in understanding the causes
and prevention of disease. It has reaped constantly increased funding and
imposed huge and increasing regulatory costs by claiming it is protecting
public health. It is not.
More Hubris and Political Expedience: Noncancer Health Risks from the Environment
Carcinogens are losing their regulatory luster. The announcement that
chemical after chemical is a carcinogen has engendered a fatalistic '' every-456
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thing causes cancer'' attitude among the public. Many scientists question
the value of the standard '' stuff the rat full of the chemical'' cancer test
and the extrapolation of results from that test to predictions of human
effects. Even worse for the EPA, an editorial, '' Our Contribution to the
Public Fear of Cancer, '' in a magazine published by the National Institutes
of Health reflects increasing disenchantment with the idea that regulation
can affect cancer. '' A current view is that given a safe workplace, the
remaining risk factors (sunlight, diet, smoking) are, for the most part,
under our individual control. ''
As the promise of regulatory control of cancer dims, other health risks
are being propped up. '' Environmental estrogens''— a widely diverse
group of chemicals that are blamed for adverse effects on reproduction,
sexual development, and school performance; increasing hyperactivity in
children; and just about every other malady in humans and animals— are
the current favorite of environmental activists and regulatory agencies.
The diversity of the chemicals and the diversity of the purported effects
are a gold mine for environmental activists and regulators. Accusing
Chemical C of causing Effect E can cause the manufacturer or user or
disposer of Chemical C to run tests to see if it really does. If, in fact,
there is no evidence for any increase in Effect E, it's a simple thing to
make a new accusation and blame Chemical C for causing Effect EE.
The testing and risk assessment enterprise that was erected to feed the
EPA's cancer regulation effort will be a tiny thing indeed compared
with the one that will be necessary to chase every effect blamed on
environmental estrogens.
Children are the other great shining hope for environmental activists
and regulators. Surely children are at more risk than adults from whatever
dangers lurk in the environment. After all, they eat more and drink more
and breathe more in proportion to their body weight than do adults. Of
course, the risks from many (probably most) environmental exposures are
zero for adults, and they would be zero for children. But the emotional
appeal of protecting children is a strong selling point for increasing
regulations.
Environmental estrogens and risks to children came together in Con-gress's
hasty passage of the Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA) in 1996.
The new law imposes sweeping new testing requirements on manufacturers
of pesticides and other chemicals that might end up in the food supply,
no matter how trivial the amount, and it decreases the permitted exposures
to such chemicals because the lower exposures are deemed necessary to
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protect children. Nowhere is there evidence that current levels of those
chemicals in food are causing adverse effects in children, but the new
testing and regulatory requirements may drive a major proportion of
pesticides off the market.
An unintentional consequence of the disappearance of pesticides will
be an increase in food prices, especially for fresh fruits and vegetables.
As prices increase, consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables will decline.
The National Cancer Institute says that eating five or more fresh fruits or
vegetables every day reduces the risk of cancer. Some people will be
priced out of that cancer prevention activity.
There is no limit to the risks that can be associated with chemicals in
the environment. Risks can be manufactured out of, literally, thin air, and
they find ready acceptance in the media and Congress and give rise to
cries that the government should do something about them. Draconian
steps such as banning a chemical are relatively rare. Flawed as it is, the
regulatory process has checks and balances that allow commercial interests
to oppose regulations. It's far easier for Congress to impose additional
testing requirements as it did in FQPA. The tests take time, cost great
amounts of money, heighten public awareness that '' chemicals are bad, ''
and divert attention from other activities that might improve health. They
will not improve health, and they may make it worse by increasing the
cost of food and other necessities.
Congressional Actions
The treadmill of pointing to potential environmental health risks, testing
to see if the risks exist, extrapolating from the test results to expected
effects on human health, and imposing more regulations and tests on the
producers and consumers in the economy will continue until Congress
asserts its responsibility and authority. That assertion can take several
forms.
Congress Should Take Back the Regulatory Authority It Has Delegated to the EPA
Congress can eliminate the EPA and return its responsibilities to the
agencies and states from which they were taken, but Congress is unlikely
to do so. Short of that, Congress can impose its authority on the EPA and
make the agency accountable to elected officials.
David Schoenbrod has described the process by which Congress dele-gates
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rizes them to make regulations. To restore congressional responsibility in
accord with the Constitution, he proposes executive branch agencies be
required to submit a proposed regulation to an up-or-down vote in Congress
before it can be promulgated. See Chapter 8 for a more complete discussion.
The Congressional Review Act approaches this problem by providing
for congressional review of a regulation after it has been promulgated.
As was vividly demonstrated by congressional response to the EPA's
1997 regulations under the Clean Air Act, the Congressional Review Act
is toothless. By the time a regulation is promulgated, the administration,
including the president, has signed off on it. Having committed himself
to the regulation, the president can be expected to veto a congressional
vote against the regulation, and he can expect members of his party to
support the veto, and a two-thirds congressional vote to override the veto
is unlikely.
Schoenbrod's proposal would require only a simple majority in Congress
to stop a regulation. Adoption of his proposal would make Congress
responsible for regulations, and make members of Congress responsible
to the voters for regulations.
Congress Should Transfer Responsibility for the Safety of Chemicals to Industry
See Chapter 39 on third-party certification.
Congress Should Address the Question, What Is an Acceptable Level of Risk?
Congress should decide on the level of risk (or the range of levels) that
is acceptable. It should immediately throw out the one-in-a-million risk
number that the EPA has adopted as the dividing line between acceptable
and unacceptable cancer risks and tell the EPA not to rely on it anymore.
Congress should then decide on an acceptable risk number based on
real-world risks. For instance, the risk of a white-collar worker's dying
from a job-related accident or from a job-related disease appears to be an
acceptable risk— no one receives hazard pay for such a job, and insurance
companies don't increase premiums to cover those risks. A risk of equal
magnitude or 1/ 2 or 1/ 10 of some other fraction of that number might be
set as acceptable. Congress can commission studies by executive branch
agencies and independent organizations to produce estimates of and justifi-cations
for acceptable risks for exposures to carcinogens, hold hearings
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to consider the suggested numbers, and decide on an acceptable number
or range of numbers.
Congress Should Reexamine the Acceptable Risk Level It Set in the Food Quality Protection Act
Six years have passed since Congress passed and the president signed
the FQPA, and its provisions are already driving a large number of pesti-cides
off the market. The EPA, trade associations, agricultural organiza-tions,
and consumer and environmental groups are all involved in trying
to implement the new law. While those efforts go ahead, there has been
no attempt by Congress to understand (1) if the new provisions are neces-sary
and (2) what the effects of those provisions will be on food production,
distribution, and costs.
Congress should debate those questions. Unless it does, regulations
based on the hastily passed FQPA will be promulgated, and the acceptable
risk number for noncancer health risks that is incorporated in them will
spread throughout the government. Health will not be improved, but
costs— and prices of food and other commodities— will increase.
Congress Should Strip the EPA of Its Research Functions
Congress has ample evidence that the EPA cannot manage good scien-tific
research, and Congress should strip the agency of any research capabil-ity
and funding. Instead of good science, the EPA practices a form of
political science that provides justification for the agency's regulatory
agenda. In 1992 a committee of scientists who examined the EPA's
research reached the following conclusions, among others:
'' EPA has not always ensured that contrasting, reputable scientific
views are well-explored and well-documented. . . . [EPA's] legal pro-cess
fosters the presentation of the extremes of scientific opinion. ''
'' EPA science is perceived by many people, both inside and outside
the Agency, to be adjusted to fit policy [emphasis in original]. ''
'' Scientists at all levels throughout EPA believe the Agency does
not use their science effectively. ''
In 1998 U. S. District Court Judge Thomas Osteen ruled that the EPA
had wrongly declared secondhand smoke a human carcinogen and blasted
the EPA's 1993 risk assessment about secondhand smoke. He said the
EPA had '' adjusted established procedure and scientific norms to validate
the Agency's public conclusion . . . disregarded information and made
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findings on selective information;... failed to disclose important findings
and reasoning; and left significant questions without answers. '' Even more
bluntly, '' There is evidence in the record supporting the accusation that
EPA 'cherry picked' its data. ''
The EPA has demonstrated that it cannot collect and evaluate scientific
data about environmental health risks honestly. Recognizing that fact,
Congress needs to designate other organizations to collect and analyze
the data. Or, if Congress elects to allow manufacturers to self-certify the
safety of their products or to allow them to contract with third-party
organizations for certification, Congress can place the costs and responsi-bilities
for chemical safety on the organizations that will most benefit
from ensuring the safety of chemicals in the environment.
Recommended Readings
Adams, John. '' Cars, Cholera, and Cows: The Management of Risk and Uncertainty. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 335, March 4, 1999.
Ames, Bruce. '' The Causes and Prevention of Cancer: Do Federal Regulations Help? '' Washington: Marshall Institute, March 28, 2002.
DeGregori, Thomas. Bountiful Harvest: Technology, Food Safety, and the Environment. Washington: Cato Institute, 2002.
Gough, Michael, and Steve Milloy. '' EPA's Cancer Risk Guidelines: Guidance to Nowhere. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 263, November 12, 1996.
Milloy, Steve. Junk Science Judo. Washington: Cato Institute, 2001. Powell, Mark. Science at EPA: Information in the Regulatory Process. Washington:
Resources for the Future, 1999. VanDoren, Peter. Chemicals, Cancer, and Choices. Washington: Cato Institute, 1999.
—Prepared by Michael Gough
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45. Global Warming
Congress should vote on the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol on global warming, which requires a two-thirds majority in the
Senate.
Background
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC)
and the subsequent Kyoto Protocol require the United States to reduce
the net emissions of carbon dioxide and other important greenhouse gases
to 7 percent below 1990 levels, on average, for the five-year period
beginning in 2008. The Framework Convention and the protocol are based
on a naive interpretation of a science that now views reductions in carbon
dioxide as a very inefficient way to influence climate change. As a result,
the economic costs of the convention and protocol are enormous, and
the benefits are undetectable. Even if all the world's nations met their
commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, there would be no discernible
effect on the globe's climate.
The Framework Convention was signed by the United States at the Rio
de Janeiro Earth Summit in 1992. As originally conceived, the purpose
of the convention was '' to prevent dangerous human interference in the
climate system. '' The original goal was to reduce emissions of carbon
dioxide, the principal human '' greenhouse'' gas, to 1990 levels by the
year 2000. Only two nations have met that goal, and they have done so
because of historic changes unrelated to environmental concerns. In 1990
the reunification of Germany resulted in the absorption of the wildly
polluting East, whose economic inefficiency was so great that much of
its industry was simply shut down. Great Britain met the target because
of privatization of the coal industry.
Carbon dioxide emissions in the United States have risen approximately
15 percent since 1990. But at Kyoto in December 1997 the Clinton
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administration, under the leadership of Vice President Al Gore, agreed to
a protocol to the FCCC that requires us to reduce our emissions 7 percent
below 1990 levels over the averaging period, 2008– 12. Because of recent
increases in emissions, this constitutes a reduction of between 30 and 40
percent (depending on whether the increase since 1990 is assumed to be
exponential or merely linear) beneath where they would be under a '' busi-ness
as usual'' scenario. That '' business as usual'' has resulted in one of
the greatest explosions in wealth creation in the history of the world.
As shown in the balance of this chapter, while global warming is likely
to be modest, the Kyoto Protocol will have no detectable effect on that
warming. These two arguments compelled the Bush administration to
abandon the protocol. It is now up to the Senate to complete this work
by voting on ratification, which requires a two-thirds majority.
The protocol currently enjoys very little support in the Senate, and in
all likelihood it will fail to achieve the votes necessary for ratification by
a large margin. There are several reasons for this lack of support: scientific,
economic, and political. The ultimate elimination of the Kyoto Protocol
will remove one of the greatest obstacles to technological progress on
climate change and should result in a rational reexamination of the issue
and, perhaps, an international agreement more grounded in facts than the
current protocol.
Members of Congress should note that calls for dramatic emissions
reductions are usually accompanied by lurid rhetoric about weather and
climate disasters. The purpose of this chapter is to provide the facts that
counter such emotional appeals.
No credible argument counters the notion that the planetary average
surface temperature is warmer than it was 100 years ago. But what does
that warming mean? If that warming were in the coldest air of winter,
rather than in the heat of summer, the overall effect would clearly change
from bad to good. Although most mathematical simulations of climate
predict an overall increase in precipitation, is more precipitation really a
bad thing? If there were a sudden and dramatic increase in the frequency
of severe floods with no concomitant positive effects, then obviously the
answer would be that global warming is a terrible disaster. But what if
gentle spring rains increase while the severity of hurricanes declines?
Figure 45.1 details the surface temperature history of the Northern
Hemisphere, 1900– 2001. (Southern Hemisphere records are not as reliable
because of the paucity of coverage over the vast Southern Ocean and
Antarctica.) There are two distinct warmings of similar magnitude. The
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Global Warming
–0.8
–0.6
–0.4
–0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Temperature
Departure
(
C)
Figure 45. 1 Northern Hemisphere annual temperature history, 1900– 2001.
first occurred from 1910 to 1940 and likely had little if anything to do
with changes in the earth's greenhouse effect, as three-quarters of the
greenhouse emissions occurred in the postwar era. Federal scientists Judith
Lean and David Rind and Harvard astrophysicist Sallie Baliunas argue
persuasively that this early warming is largely a result of solar changes.
Warming Occurs Primarily in the Winter, Not the Summer
The Largest Warming Is in the Coldest, Deadliest Airmasses
The second warming, which began about 35 years ago, is much more
interesting. Greenhouse-effect physics predicts that human-induced climate
change should take place more in the winter than in the summer, and that
it should further be concentrated in the coldest air of winter. The propensity
for greenhouse warming to occur in frigid dry air has enormous implica-tions
that have largely been ignored in the raucous debate about cli-mate
change.
In fact, observed warming since World War II is twice as large in
winter as it is in summer. In the winter, three-quarters of the total warming
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is confined to the frigid airmasses that reside in Siberia and northwestern
North America.
Summer warming has been, predictably, much less than winter warming.
Less than one-third of the observed warming of the second half of the 20th
century occurred in the summer, while two-thirds occurred in the winter.
An individual living in Siberia or northwestern North America has, for
the last 50 years, experienced a winter half-year warming of nearly 1.1
degree Celsius. Cold airmasses that originate in these regions, on the
'' edges'' of winter (April and October), are usually responsible for the
last freeze in the spring and the first freeze in the fall in temperate latitudes.
Reducing the inherent coldness lengthens the growing season. There are
several lines of evidence in the scientific literature indicating that this
is occurring.
Temperature Variability Is Declining, Not Increasing
One of the common arguments for emissions reductions is the notion
that the weather has become more variable. The opposite is true.
Economic and ecological systems are adapted to both average conditions
and expected variation. So, as the temperature warms, do annual and
seasonal temperature swings become more erratic? In the last century,
some years were warm and some cold. This natural variability allows us
to examine whether the seasonal and monthly variability in those years
is different from the variability in years with near-mean temperatures.
Figure 45.2 shows monthly variability in the last 100 years. Before
1940 (including the warming of 1910– 40), there was little change. In the
last third of the 20th century, there was a considerable decline. In other
words, as the greenhouse enhancement has warmed the extremely cold
air of Siberia and northwestern North America, the within-year variability
has dropped. There is no evidence that the fluctuations in the earth's
temperatures are greater now than they were at the beginning of the 20th
century. Conversely, most evidence suggests that temperature has become
less variable.
Precipitation, Droughts, and Floods Show No Ominous Changes
The standard measure of drought is known as the Palmer Drought
Severity Index. Figure 45. 3 shows the percentage of the lower 48 U. S.
states experiencing severe Palmer drought back to the beginning of the
record in 1895. Clearly, there is no overall trend; what's more, the drought
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Temperature
Variability
Figure 45. 2 Intra-annual global temperature variability. Temperature variability has been declining
since greenhouse warming began.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Percent
of
Country
Figure 45. 3 The percentage of the United States experiencing severe or extreme drought
conditions fluctuates from year to year but shows no long-term trend.
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periods in the 1930s and 1950s dwarf anything we saw in the last quarter
of the 20th century.
What about rainfall? The Palmer Index measures wetness as well as
drought. Here we do see a slight but statistically significant increase. This
is clearly a net benefit of climate change. Every summer most of the
United States experiences a moisture deficit, as solar-driven evaporation
dries the soil at a greater rate than rainfall can replenish moisture. So any
increase in precipitation is likely to be welcomed by American agriculture.
Figure 45.4 demonstrates this increase.
Even this salutary trend has been twisted in the service of climate
doomsaying. In August 2002, Maryland governor Parris Glendening
blamed the region's severe drought on global warming. In fact, U. S.
precipitation has increased by about 10 percent in the last 100 years, or
roughly three inches. Some scientists attribute that to other atmospheric
changes accompanying warming. For warming to have increased the fre-quency
of drought, then, this additional increment of rainfall, plus another
large amount sufficient to provoke a major drought, must somehow be
evaporated away by higher temperatures. This is simply not the case: The
average change in U. S. temperature in the last 100 years has been a mere
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Figure 45. 4 percentage of the United States that is substantially wet shows a statistically
significant increase. This is largely beneficial for American agriculture.
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0.4° C, which increases evaporation a mere half-inch or so. So, if anything, global warming has added about 2.5 inches of water per year to U. S. soil.
We often hear that flooding rains are increasing from global warming. This originates from a study of U. S. rainfall by federal climatologist Tom
Karl, who found that there is an increasing fraction of U. S. rainfall coming from storms of more than two inches per day.
The environmental lobby has seized upon this fact without actual analy-sis of the results. What Karl found is that the majority of the increase is
in storms of between two and three inches per day. Those are not floods. With regard to storms capable of significant flooding, those producing
five or more inches of rainfall a day, the increase is so slight as to be meaningless. On the average, a person will now experience two more
days in his entire expected life span of 27, 350 days in which it rains five or more inches.
Another way to look for precipitation extremes is to examine streamflow data in undammed basins. In 1999 U. S. Geological Survey scientist Harry
Lins published a paper showing no increase in the frequency of flooding streamflow but a decrease in the frequency of the lowest (drought) flow
categories. That is to say, streamflow records indicate decreased drought and no change in floods over the long historical perspective.
There Is No Increase in the Frequency or Severity of Hurricanes
The notion that global warming is making the most destructive storms worse or more frequent is one of the most compelling appeals for green-house
emission reductions. It has absolutely no basis in fact. Figure 45.5 shows the number of hurricanes striking the United States
per decade. It is obvious that, if anything, recent decades are notable for their lack of storms. Of even more interest is the fact that the maximum
wind velocity measured in Atlantic and Caribbean Basin storms has actu-ally declined significantly in the last 50 years, as shown in data published
by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (Figure 45.6).
Heat-Related Mortality Is Declining, Not Increasing
The popular perception is that heat-related deaths have increased, and will continue to increase, with global warming. The IPCC says, ''[ Based
upon data from several North American cities], the annual number of heat-related deaths would approximately double by 2020 and would
increase several fold by 2050. '' Research shows that this is just plain wrong. Figure 45.7 shows the
relation of death rates in Philadelphia, a typical urban core, to '' effective
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0
5
10
15
20
25
1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
Decade
Number
Figure 45. 5 Number of hurricanes striking the United States per decade. If anything, recent
decades have had fewer storms than average.
30
35
40
45
50
55
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Maximum
Wind
Speed
(m/
s)
Figure 45. 6 Maximum winds measured by aircraft in Atlantic and Caribbean storms show a
statistically significant decline (IPCC 1996), despite stories of increased severity.
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Figure 45. 7 In Philadelphia, typical of most American cities, the daily mortality generally
decreases with temperature, with the exception of the very hottest days.
temperature, '' which is the combination of heat and humidity that makes people uncomfortable. In general, heat-related deaths decline with effective
temperature, although there are a few days that show remarkable death excursions at high temperature— the few dots that can be seen in the upper
right portion of the graph. These are death excursions similar to those of Chicago's July 1995 heat wave, which was responsible for several hundred
excess deaths. But, as Figure 45.8 shows, as we progressed through the last half of
the 20th century, the increase in the number of people who died at high temperatures declined to near-zero values. This is a result of increased
use of air conditioning, effective medical care, and public education about the dangers of excessive heat. In other words, over time, the same technol-ogy
that slightly raises the surface temperature (fossil-fuel-driven electricity production) saves lives. Proposals to make energy more expensive as a
means of fighting climate change will have the perverse effect of killing those who can least afford expensive electricity, resulting in a return to
the heat-related death patterns of the past.
Future Warming Is Likely to Be Modest in Scale
By now, dozens of different computer simulations that estimate future warming have been executed. How do we decide which, if any, is likely
to be correct?
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10 10 20 40 60 80 100 120
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
4 p. m. Apparent Temperature ( F)
Average
Daily
Mortality
1964– 1966 1973– 1979
1980– 1989 1990– 1998
Figure 45. 8 In a northern city, such as Philadelphia, where extremely hot conditions occur less
frequently than in the South, the population exhibits a higher mortality rate on hot days. However, over time, the sensitivity of the population of Philadelphia to high
temperatures has been declining.
The key to the future lies in the rather extended period during which
humans have already altered the natural greenhouse effect— roughly from
the start of the Industrial Revolution in the late 19th century to the present.
The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide— the main greenhouse
emission resulting from human activity— varied from 260 to 320 parts
per million (ppm) between the end of the glacial stage, 10,800 years ago,
and the Industrial Revolution. The average value during that period was
near the low end of that range, about 280 ppm. The current concentration
is 365 ppm, about a 30 percent increase.
But there are other emissions that increase the atmosphere's natural
greenhouse effect. Methane emissions, for example, contribute a warming
of another 20 percent beyond the enhanced carbon dioxide greenhouse
effect. Another 15 percent increase comes from chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs), refrigerants whose atmospheric concentrations have yet to decline
much, despite the Montreal Protocol against their manufacture because
they might reduce stratospheric ozone. A host of other anthropogenic
emissions contributes much smaller additional increments. When all is
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Global Warming
said and done, in toto the emissions produce a '' carbon dioxide equivalent''
concentration that is about 60 percent above the background levels recorded
prior to the Industrial Revolution.
Nearly 20 years ago, a few climate scientists noted that the planet had
not warmed as much as would be expected fromearly computer simulations
of greenhouse warming. By 1996 the IPCC acknowledged that that obser-vation
had become the consensus of the broad scientific constituency.
Although it has been fashionable to try to '' explain'' the lack of warming
by the presence of sulfate aerosols, a product of combustion that was
thought to cool the surface, that explanation has never withstood simple
tests. The alternative explanation put forth by the IPCC is that the sensitivity
of surface temperature was simply overestimated.
Evidence leads us to conclude that the warming we saw in the last
third of the 20th century was largely from greenhouse changes. It is very
linear (constant in rate) at about 0.15° C per decade at the surface. A small
solar component is calculated to be around 0.02° C per decade. That leaves
us with about 0.13° C per decade as a human greenhouse signal.
Figure 45.9 shows the warming since 1960 as well as output from a
large suite of climate forecast models. The models' forecasts are also all
–1
–0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5 NCAR CSM, 1%/ year
NCAR CSM, Adjusted HadCM2.1%/ year
HadCM2. Adjusted Hansen, Scenario B
GFDL, 1%/ year GFDL, Adjusted
Observations
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Temperature
Change
(
C)
Figure 45. 9 Observed warming of the last 35 years superimposed on typical climate model
projections. The observed linear trend is near the lowest value that the climate models predict and considerably below the mean projected warming.
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linear, but note that they differ in the slope of their projected warming.
These differences result from internal model dynamics and assumptions,
including the rate of increase of greenhouse changes. For example, the
rate of greenhouse increase has been running at about 75 percent of the
UN's '' central'' estimate for decades. Most computer models assume an
even larger value than the UN's already high figure; indeed, several
researchers have recently demonstrated that the true value is a mere 45
percent of the modeled assumption.
Nonetheless, with few exceptions, all the climate models predict warm-ings
over the next century that are essentially linear. It seems logical to
now let nature adjudicate what the proper rate for warming is; this is also
shown in Figure 45.9. By the middle of this century, we are left with an
additional surface warming of 0.65° C to 0. 75° C, with 0.75° C to 0. 85° C
in the winter half year and 0.60° C to 0.65° C in the summer.
Interestingly, these 50-year figures are quite similar to the warming that
occurred during the late 20th century.
What have we to show for a century of warming? In 1900 life expectancy
at birth in the United States was 42 years. After 100 years of global
warming, it was exactly twice that number, 84 years. Urban infrastructure
in the United States has adapted so well to both average and warmed
climates that heat-related deaths are disappearing. After a global warming
of 0.6° C, U. S. crop yields quintupled. World food production per capita
has increased by nearly 50 percent in the last half century. An untold
story is that carbon dioxide itself makes most crops grow better: by the year
2050 that direct stimulation of planetary greening will feed an increment of
1.5 billion people the equivalent of today's diet.
The Kyoto Protocol Does Nothing about Global Warming
No known mechanism can stop global warming in the near term. Interna-tional
agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Frame-work
Convention on Climate Change, will have no detectable effect on
average temperature within any reasonable policy time frame of 50 years
or so— even with full compliance. Climate modelers at the U. S. National
Center for Atmospheric Research calculate that full compliance with the
Kyoto Protocol by all signatory nations would reduce global surface temper-ature
by 0.07° C by 2050, and 0. 14° C by 2100. Congress should note the
dangers of an expensive environmental accord with no benefit. The Senate
should consider the Kyoto Protocol for ratification, with the resultant
negative vote paving the way for more rational environmental regulation.
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Recently, National Aeronautics and Space Administration scientist
James Hansen, whose 1988 congressional testimony started the global
warming furor, wrote that reducing carbon dioxide is a highly ineffective
means of slowing global warming in the 50-year time horizon. Rather,
he argues, concentrating on the other greenhouse gases, such as CFCs
and methane (which has stopped increasing in the atmosphere for only
partially known reasons), is much more effective and politically acceptable
than the costly Kyoto Protocol, which, he wrote, '' cast the developed and
developing worlds as adversaries. '' Hansen is clearly stating that the Kyoto
Protocol is scientifically ill-advised.
Rather, the more serious question the facts on global warming provoke
is this: Is the way the planet warms something that we should even try
to stop?
Suggested Readings
Balling, R. C. Jr., P. J. Michaels, and P. C. Knappenberger. '' Analysis of Winter and Summer Warming Rates in Gridded Temperature Time Series. '' Climate Research
9 (1988): 175– 81. Davis, R. E., et al. '' Decadal Changes in Summer Mortality in the United States. ''
Proceedings of the 12th Conference on Applied Climatology, Asheville, N. C., 2000,
pp. 184– 87. Hansen, J. E., et al. '' A Common-Sense Climate Index: Is Our Climate Changing
Noticeably? '' Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 95 (2000): 4113– 20. . '' Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative Scenario. ''
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2000), www. pnas. org.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change: Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Edited by J. T. Houghton et al.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996. Karl, T. R., R. W. Knight, and N. Plummer. '' Trends in High-Frequency Climate
Variability in the Twentieth Century. '' Nature 377 (1995): 217– 20. Lean, J., and D. Rind. '' Climate Forcing by Changing Solar Radiation. '' Journal of
Climate 11 (1998): 3069– 94.
Lins, H. F., and J. R. Slack. '' Streamflow Trends in the United States. '' Geophysical Research Letters 26 (1999): 277– 330.
Michaels, P. J. '' The Consequences of Kyoto. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 307, May 7, 1998.
. '' Long Hot Year: Latest Science Debunks Global Warming Hysteria. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 329, December 31, 1998.
Michaels, P. J., and R. C. Balling Jr. The Satanic Gases. Washington: Cato Institute, 2000. Michaels, P. J., et al. '' Analysis of Trends in the Variability of Daily and Monthly
Historical Temperature Measurements. '' Climate Research 10 (1998): 27– 33. . '' Observed Warming in Cold Anticyclones. '' Climate Research 14 (2000): 1– 6.
Wittwer, S. H. Food, Climate, and Carbon Dioxide. Boca Raton, Fla.: CRC Press, 1995.
—Prepared by Patrick J. Michaels
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46. Department of Energy
Congress should
eliminate the U. S. Department of Energy;
transfer the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA),
which is responsible for managing the DOE's nuclear-industrial complex, to the Department of Defense;
renegotiate the DOE's nuclear weapons cleanup programs to
reflect prioritization of containment and neutralization of risk rather than removal and return of sites to pristine conditions
and transfer cleanup responsibilities to the NNSA; privatize all laboratories, except two of the three weapons
laboratories, managed by the DOE; eliminate all research and development programs overseen by
the DOE and replace them with a robust R& D tax credit; sell the assets held by the power marketing administrations to
the highest bidders; sell the Strategic Petroleum Reserve; and
spin off the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the Energy
Information Administration, and the Office of Civilian Radioac-tive Waste Management (which is responsible for regulating
the long-term disposal of high-level nuclear waste) as indepen-dent agencies within the executive branch.
The Department of Energy is a large department by any measure. It
has a budget of $21.3 billion per year. Approximately 115,000 workers
are employed in 35 states at the DOE's national laboratories, cleanup
sites, and other facilities. Notwithstanding its name, the DOE's primary
role is that of caretaker of America's nuclear-industrial complex. Nearly
three-quarters of the department's budget is devoted to nuclear weapons
safety and nuclear cleanup activities.
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The DOE is a 1970s' dinosaur that has outlived its usefulness. Energy
production, distribution, and consumption are better directed by market
forces than by government planners and bureaucrats. Likewise, weapons
maintenance and related nuclear activities are better directed by Defense
than by Energy personnel. There is no more reason for a department of
energy than for a department of automobiles.
First, Eliminate the Department
Even if few of the actual functions of the DOE were eliminated, eliminat-ing
the department and transferring its programs to other agencies would
be a worthwhile undertaking. Maintaining a cabinet-level energy depart-ment
is risky because it provides a ready structure for the reintroduction
of direct federal interventions in the energy market— a perfect command
post from which some future '' Energy Czar'' could once again punish
energy producers and consumers in the event of some temporary energy
'' emergency. '' Elimination of the DOE would make it difficult for govern-ment
to launch any future interventions in the energy marketplace.
Moreover, the DOE is demonstrably the most bureaucratically dysfunc-tional
agency in government. Its inability to provide even the most basic
security for our nuclear secrets is well-known. Its ability to protect workers
and communities around its nuclear weapons facilities— such as those in
Paducah, Kentucky— is seriously in doubt. Those problems, however, are
simply well-publicized manifestations of a deeper problem: the depart-ment's
inability to competently supervise the activities of the contractors
who manage and operate its facilities and programs.
That failure is important because fully 90 percent of the department's
budget is spent on contracts with third parties whose competence and
integrity have been placed seriously in doubt by report after report and
scandal after scandal. Despite repeated warnings by the U. S. General
Accounting Office that the department's management and supervision of
contractors have been ridiculously lax and grossly incompetent, the prob-lems
continue with no institutional remedy in sight.
There are two commonly marshaled rationales for the DOE: first, that
the department is needed to discourage and ameliorate the occasional
energy market dislocations that harm consumers and, second, that the
department is needed to secure America's '' energy independence'' from
OPEC. Both rationales are intellectually threadbare.
The occasional energy dislocations of the past two decades underscore
the fact that the DOE is incapable of '' smoothing out'' the rough edges
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of world oil markets. It is an economic fact of life that small changes in
global oil supply or demand have very large effects on prices in the short
term. That leads to large transfers of wealth from consumers to firms in
times of supply decreases and from firms to consumers in times of supply
increases. There is absolutely nothing that the DOE can do about that.
When the federal government has tried to shelter consumers from short-term
price spikes (primarily by imposing price controls, instituting ration-ing,
and levying windfall profit taxes), energy markets have been even
further distorted and consumer welfare has gone from bad to worse.
Other energy markets of concern— primarily gasoline markets and elec-tricity
markets— are largely beyond the reach of the DOE. Antitrust law
polices the former, and the independent Federal Energy Regulatory Com-mission
somewhat polices the latter (state public utility commissions take
the lead regulatory role in electricity markets).
The other main objective of the DOE— the promotion of energy inde-pendence—
is practically unachievable. Changes in oil supplies anywhere
in the world affect oil prices everywhere in the world as long as oil is freely
traded in markets. International oil shocks also spill over into domestic coal
and natural gas markets. The United States would have to isolate its entire
domestic energy market from the world energy market in order to eliminate
the price effects of supply shocks elsewhere in the world— an economically
prohibitive exercise.
In the event of a new energy crisis, Congress would be best advised
to ensure energy supplies and fuel diversity by allowing markets to work
unimpeded by bureaucratic second-guessing. The existence of an energy
department presents too strong a temptation for intervention, which is
widely acknowledged to have been disastrous in the past.
Reorganize the Nuclear-Industrial Complex
The DOE might be better named the '' Department of Nuclear Weaponry
and Science. ''
Although stockpile maintenance and cleanup operations certainly need
to be continued, the agency responsible for those activities hardly needs
to be represented at the president's cabinet table. There is no compelling
reason for those activities to be under the administrative umbrella of an
'' energy'' department, since '' energy'' has virtually nothing to do with
either administrative function.
It makes administrative sense for those activities to be assumed by the
Department of Defense. As the National Defense Research Institute of
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the RAND Corporation recently pointed out, '' It is questionable whether
there remains any reason to continue the separation of nuclear responsibili-ties
between DoD and DoE. '' Likewise, a 1995 GAO survey of 37 aca-demic
experts and former DOE officials found overwhelming support for
removing the DOE from the business of nuclear weapons development,
stockpile maintenance, and arms control verification.
The newly constituted National Nuclear Security Administration—
which has been charged by Congress with oversight of the nuclear-indus-trial
complex managed by the DOE— should thus be spun off from the
department and placed under the organizational auspices of the Department
of Defense. The weapons-related activities of Los Alamos, Lawrence
Livermore, and Sandia should be reduced to reflect post– Cold War reali-ties,
consolidated within two of those national laboratories, and placed
under the direction of the NNSA.
Reform Federal Environmental Cleanup Programs
The DOE's various cleanup programs— amounting to $6 billion annu-ally—
are necessitated by the environmental mismanagement of the nuclear
weapons complex. Federal nuclear weapons facilities, such as Rocky Flats,
Colorado, and Hanford, Washington, are expected to take 30 years or
more to clean up. Current cleanup standards negotiated by the DOE with
state and local communities establish rigorous protocols, based on the
federal Superfund statute, that are aimed at returning sites to near-pristine
conditions. Estimates of the ultimate cost of such cleanups vary dramati-cally,
but even the most conservative estimate of $200 billion rivals the
cost of the savings-and-loan bailout. Other estimates peg ultimate cleanup
costs as high as $1 trillion.
While cleaning up those sites is certainly a federal responsibility, the
cleanup standards adopted by the DOE are unachievable as well as inordi-nately
costly. Although that is widely understood within the scientific
community, the point was perhaps best made in a report issued in 1995 by
an advisory board appointed by the DOE to study the national laboratories:
Probably the most important reason behind the slow pace of assessment
and cleanup is the low quality of science and technology that is being
applied in the field. Many of the methods, such as '' pump and treat'' for
contaminated groundwater remediation, cannot provide the claimed bene-fits.
There is a lack of realization that many— and most experts believe
most— existing remediation approaches are doomed to technical failure.
Others would require unacceptable expenditures and much extended time
to reach their stated objectives.
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Current standards negotiated by the DOE for cleanup of nuclear sites
are, even if desirable, untenable both economically and politically. Moving
to a standard of risk neutralization allows far more sites to be cleaned up
and correspondingly speedier health protection for the general public. Most
environmental engineers believe that such a change in cleanup protocols
on federal sites would cut total remediation costs by at least 50 percent.
If the NNSA is transferred to the Department of Defense, it makes
sense to transfer cleanup operations there as well. RAND notes that '' under
the assumption that DOE continued to manage environmental cleanup,
there would arise the issue of who was responsible for new environmental
problems created by a DoD organization. It is not clear that bifurcating
responsibility for nuclear waste cleanup— between old and new, or
between that from weapons programs and that from other sources— would
be prudent. '' Accordingly, it makes sense to also give the NNSA this
authority. The aforementioned GAO survey of energy experts likewise
found an overwhelming consensus for transferring civilian nuclear dis-posal;
nuclear weapons waste management and cleanup; and all matters
of environmental, safety, and health oversight out of the DOE.
Privatize the National Laboratories
The DOE maintains 9 multiprogram laboratories (which account for
70 percent of the department's total laboratory budget and 80 percent of
all laboratory personnel) and 13 program-dedicated laboratories, all but 4
of which are managed and operated for the department by various univer-sity
and corporate contractors. Because those laboratories have a total
annual operating budget of about $10 billion and a combined payroll
of approximately 60,000 people, the taxpayers' '' investment'' in those
laboratories has been truly staggering.
The national laboratories today are no longer focused exclusively on
weapons programming; they have branched out to include environmental,
commercial, and various other research activities now that the Cold War
is over.
More than 30 reports and audits over the last several decades— including
those of seven internal advisory groups— have warned that the laboratories'
missions are unfocused and questionable, that the DOE micromanages
the laboratories, and that the laboratories do not operate in an integrated
manner. Still, the GAO reported in September 1998 that the department
had refused to implement most of the recommendations made in those
audits and reports and that the actions that had been undertaken by the
department were of dubious value.
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Perhaps the most compelling recent analysis of the national laboratories
is the February 1995 Galvin Report, the product of a corporate-academic
task force appointed by the secretary of energy, that trumpeted '' critical
finding'' as '' so much more fundamental than we anticipated that we
could not in good conscience ignore it. The principle behind that finding
is: government ownership and operation of these laboratories does not
work well. '' The prescription?
The principal organizational recommendation of this Task Force is that the
laboratories be as close to corporatized as is imaginable. We are convinced
that simply fine-tuning a policy or a mission, a project, or certain administra-tive
functions will produce minimal benefits at best.
Accordingly, Congress should float, for purchase by any interested
party, stock in each separate laboratory save for two of the three main
weapons laboratories (Lawrence Livermore, Sandia, and Los Alamos). If
there is insufficient commercial interest in any particular facility, the
federal government should turn operation of that facility over to the man-agement
agent currently under contract to the federal government. That
agent would then retain full ownership rights to the laboratory and be free
to operate it as it wished, contracting with public and private entities in
the free market, or close it down. The federal government would retain
full liability for past environmental contamination at all the privatized
laboratories and would be responsible— through the NNSA— for remedy-ing
any environmental contamination that threatened public health.
Eliminate Energy Research and Development
The DOE spends $7 billion annually on research and development.
About half of that sum is spent on basic scientific research. The emphasis
on R& D is so great at the DOE that, in its 2001 budget request to Congress
(titled '' Strength through Science''), the department straightforwardly
declared that '' DoE is a Science Agency. ''
Over the past four decades, the federal government has poured nearly
$100 billion into nondefense nuclear science and energy R& D, 70 percent
of which since the mid-1980s has been devoted to applied energy R& D.
Clearly, federal energy R& D expenditures have not been trivial.
There are two primary justifications for federally supported energy
R& D. The main justification is that R& D is a '' public good. '' No firm
that discovers new technologies or production practices can fully exclude
other firms from appropriating those discovers for their own commercial
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benefit. Private firms will thus underinvest in R& D and supplemental
government investment is necessary to improve overall economic effi-ciency.
The second justification is mercantilist: other nations subsidize the
R& D programs of their domestic industries, and, if the United States did
not do likewise, it would competitively disadvantage firms headquartered
in the United States.
While the former argument is almost certainly true to some extent, it's
worth noting that the United States became the richest nation in the world
long before there was any significant American leadership in science and
technology. Most federal programs to promote science and technology,
moreover, were initiated after World War II. Subsequently, U. S. economic
growth has been among the lowest of the major nations.
The historical and cross-national record reveals a strong relationship
between real expenditures for R& D and the level of national output— but
little relationship with the rate of economic growth. This record is more
consistent with the hypothesis that R& D is an income-elastic consumption
good, something that rich people and rich nations do, rather than an
investment that will increase future economic growth.
The mercantilist justification is even weaker. The international character
of science is such that discoveries made in one nation are available to
scientists in all. The existence of the free rider problem at the international
level suggests that the relative competitive position of an economy may
not be improved by funding R& D. As noted by the late Harry Johnson,
an economist at the University of Chicago, a position of leadership in
basic science
might benefit a nation almost exclusively in terms of intangible national
prestige of scientific accomplishment, the concrete benefits of the applica-tion
of scientific findings being reaped mainly by other nations. In that
case, the expenditure of public money on the support of basic scientific
research would serve mainly to save other countries the cost of basic
research and enable them to concentrate on development and application.
Regardless of the theoretical debate, there is little evidence to suggest
that the tens of billions of dollars poured into energy R& D have ever
produced more net economic benefits than costs or that the energy economy
today would be any different absent such R& D expenditures.
Perhaps the most serious examination of federal R& D programs—
conducted for the Brookings Institution by economists Linda Cohen of the
University of California at Irvine and Roger Noll of Stanford University—
found that energy R& D has been an abject failure and a pork barrel for
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political gain. MIT's Thomas Lee, Ben Ball Jr., and Richard Tabors
likewise observe that '' the experience of the 1970s and 1980s taught us
that if a technology is commercially viable, then government support is
not needed; and if a technology is not commercially viable, no amount
of government support will make it so. ''
Even the Galvin Report concluded that the DOE's laboratories— where
most of the department's R& D takes place—'' are not now, nor will
they become, cornucopias of relevant technology for a broad range of
industries. ''
Those conclusions were reached by Cato's chairman Bill Niskanen,
who found in a regression analysis that a $100 increase in real federal
R& D outlays per employee (which would increase current federal outlays
by about $17 billion) might increase the annual productivity rate by about
one-quarter of a percentage point within five years. All the near-term
effects of R& D outlays on productivity growth, however, appear related
entirely to defense R& D. Civilian and space R& D outlays appear to have
no effect on near-term productivity growth. The long-term effects may
be greater but cannot be ascertained from the statistical sample of 1956– 95
used by Niskanen.
The reason that energy R& D has such a disappointing track record is
that politicians and bureaucrats are charged with deciding which industries,
technologies, and projects to support on the basis of political, not economic
or scientific, considerations. As former senator William Proxmire once
remarked: '' Money will go where the political power is. Anyone who
thinks government funds will be allocated to firms according to merit has
not lived or served in Washington very long. '' Eric Reichl, former director
of the Synthetic Fuel Corporation and long-time member of the DOE's
Energy Research Advisory Board, agrees: '' The more R& D dollars are
available, the more of them will go to some marginal ideas. The high-merit
ideas will always find support, even from— or particularly from—
private industry. In general, then, government R& D dollars will tend to
flow to marginal ideas. Exceptions always exist, but they are just that,
exceptions. ''
Federal energy R& D expenditures should be immediately eliminated.
The argument that they have provided a net social benefit to the economy
is simply dogma masquerading as fact. The GAO audit of a recent DOE
report of its R& D '' Success Stories, '' for instance, revealed '' basic math
errors, problems in supporting economic analyses, and unsupported links
between the benefits cited and DoE's role or the technology. These prob-484
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lems make DoE's estimates of the benefits of these cases questionable. ''
In fact, no cost/ benefit analysis of any kind has ever been produced to
justify past or present DOE R& D programming.
The case for government support of civilian R& D is that the return to
the economy is higher than the return to the firm, not that the government
has better information on what R& D has the highest return. Government-sponsored
R& D programs may increase the total level of investment,
but allocation of the incremental expenditure is constrained by lack of
information and is unduly influenced by vocal user and supplier interests.
Science policy would probably make a larger contribution to economic
growth by merely augmenting private R& D expenditures, leaving the
allocation decisions entirely to private organizations. The most effective
instrument for supporting civilian R& D, then, is probably a tax credit for
private R& D expenditures.
Unlike the present credit, however, an ideal credit would
apply to total R& Dexpenditures by a firm, not merely to the increment
above some base period, and
be refundable to avoid a bias against start-up firms with no near-term
tax liability.
Similarly, the most effective instrument to support basic research in
universities would be a grant to match funds raised from private sources.
University-based scientists would make their case to private firms rather
than to some government-appointed peer-review committee.
Failing that, Congress should transfer DOE's R& D programs to the
National Science Foundation. Energy programs would then compete with
nonenergy programs for financial support.
Privatize the Power Marketing Administrations
The DOE sells about 19 percent of the nation's annual power production.
The facilities that generate that power are mostly dams: Hoover, Grand
Coulee, and 129 other smaller dams operated by the Army Corps of
Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation. The DOE's remaining power
marketing administrations (PMAs)— the agencies that deliver public power
wholesale (with the exception of the Bonneville Power Administration,
which also sells power retail) to publicly owned utilities and rural power
cooperatives— are, together, as large as major private power companies.
The PMAs were originally justified on two premises: first, that monop-oly
electricity corporations would not find enough profit in electrifying
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rural America and thus government must step in and provide the power
and, second, that government could provide power to consumers at less
cost than could private companies because it could do so '' at cost'' without
worrying about capital costs or profit margins.
The first premise is now irrelevant. Rural America is thoroughly electri-fied
and will remain so with or without the PMAs. Moreover, 60 percent
of rural America is already served by investor-owned utilities.
The second premise— that federal power would be cheap— was a social-ist
chimera. Public electricity generation has proven to be far more costly
than private generation.
All of the PMAs should be privatized by asset divestiture and sold to
the highest bidders by an asset privatization working group under the
management of the Department of the Treasury. The divested assets should
include the right to market power produced at federal facilities (without
any price constraint) and the generation equipment associated with energy
production at those facilities (owned primarily by the Army Corps of
Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation). The privatization plan should
grandfather in existing operating conditions at hydroelectric generating
facilities, including minimum flows from the dams, and provide a '' prefer-ence''
to current customers that would relieve them from current contract
requirements if they so desired. Sale of the four PMAs proposed by the
Clinton administration in 1995 (but, alas, proposed no longer) was esti-mated
to bring in between $3.4 billion and $9 billion to the federal treasury.
Bonneville was likely to bring in approximately $9 billion.
Although there might not be a market for the largest federal dams, such
as Hoover and Grand Coulee (although that remains to be seen), there
are more than 100 smaller dams that would find ready buyers. More than
2,000 hydropower facilities are owned by the private sector (compared
to 172 facilities owned by the public), and 56 percent of the nation's
hydropower is generated by private companies. Those facilities are not
necessarily small generators. The Conowingo Dam, a 500-megawatt facil-ity
on Maryland's Susquehanna River, and the Brownlee Dam, a 585-megawatt
facility on the Snake River, are both owned by nonfederal power
companies.
Sale of federally owned dams would also allow environmentalists and
the recreational industry the option of buying and retiring those dams in
the interest of riparian protection and, indirectly, the health of various
fisheries. There is little merit to the idea that the federal government knows
a priori the highest and best economic use for riparian resources. It may
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well be that society values the environmental benefits of untamed water-ways
more than it values the low-cost electricity that those waterways
provide. If that is the case, the public should be afforded the opportunity
to make those preferences known through the marketplace.
Most retail consumers of public power would experience no rate
increases under privatization (assuming, that is, that environmentalists do
not win bids to own privatized hydroelectric facilities). The reason is that,
even though public power is sold to intermediary wholesale purchasers
at from 1 to 3 cents per kilowatt-hour, those wholesalers (rural electric
cooperatives and municipal utilities) typically resell that power to their
customers at market rates— 6 to 8 cents per kilowatt-hour. In other words,
the retail customers of public power do not receive the public subsidy;
the rural electric cooperatives and municipal utilities do.
Sell the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The federal government maintains a 583-million-barrel Strategic Petro-leum
Reserve (SPR) of unrefined, generally high-sulfur crude oil in five
caverns in Texas and Louisiana. The mission of the SPR, according to
the DOE, is '' to reduce U. S. vulnerability to economic, national security,
and foreign policy consequences of petroleum supply disruptions. '' As
the oil price spikes of 2000 clearly demonstrated, however, no petroleum
reserve— no matter how large— can insulate the United States from the
effects of international supply disruptions.
The military rationale for the SPR is dubious. Joshua Gotbaum, former
assistant secretary for economic security at the Department of Defense,
testified before the Senate in 1995 that the military could fight two major
regional wars nearly simultaneously while using only one-eighth of Ameri-ca's
current domestic oil production. And short of a seamless naval
embargo, no oil boycott could prevent the United States from purchasing
oil in the international marketplace. As noted by MIT economist Morris
Adelman: '' The danger is of a production cutback, not an 'embargo. ' The
world oil market is one big ocean, connected to every bay and inlet. For
that reason the 'embargo' of 1973– 74 was a sham. Diversion was not
even necessary, it was simply a swap of customers and suppliers between
Arab and non-Arab sources. ''
The idea that the government should buy oil when it is cheap and store
it for future use when prices are high seems reasonable at first glance,
but the maintenance of a federal reserve discourages private firms from
maintaining stockpiles. That's because it's very costly to store oil over
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time. Private stockpiles make economic sense only if they can be sold at
very high prices (which are necessary to recoup storage costs), but the
threat that the federal government may flood the market during times of
shortage makes firms far less certain that domestic prices would ever stay
high enough to ensure a profit on stockpiled oil. In fact, a back-of-the-
envelope calculation suggests that— after adjusting for inflation and
figuring in the costs of storage and maintenance— the oil in the SPR has
cost the treasury at least $60 a barrel. Yet no serious energy economist
expects oil prices to ever equal the price of putting a barrel of oil in the
SPR. If one thinks of the SPR as the functional equivalent of an insurance
policy, then the premium on the policy exceeds the benefits of the policy.
Although hedging against the risk of supply disruption and temporary
shortages may make sense, the maintenance of a physical stockpile is only
one way— and a very expensive way— of doing so. Futures markets (for
instance, the oil futures market on the New York Mercantile Exchange)
provide an alternative to stockpiles by enabling consumers to lock in
purchase prices for as long as six years into the future.
Selling the SPR would bring $16 billion in revenue to the treasury.
Conclusion
The remainder of the DOE's responsibilities could be easily parceled
out to independent or semi-independent agencies. The Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission and the Energy Information Administration—
although nominally within the DOE management structure— are nearly
autonomous now and could be made officially so. The DOE's Office of
Civilian Radioactive Waste Management, which is responsible for regulat-ing
the long-term storage of high-level nuclear waste, could be transformed
into an independent agency or placed under the authority of the Department
of the Interior.
The views expressed here may be rare in Washington, but they are
orthodox among serious economists. As noted by Richard Gordon, profes-sor
of mineral economics at Pennsylvania State University and recipient
of the International Association of Energy Economists' Outstanding Con-tributions
Award, '' The dominant theme of academic writings is that
governments have done more harm than good in energy, '' a view '' almost
universally supported by academic energy economists, whatever their
political outlook. ''
Eliminating the Department of Energy and most of its nondefense
functions would save taxpayers at least $10 billion annually and tens of
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billions more through the privatization of federal assets. Such a step would
eliminate what is perhaps the largest slice of corporate welfare in the
budget and improve the overall efficiency of the economy— which is
burdened, not helped, by federal intervention in the energy market.
Suggested Readings
Adelman, M. A. The Genie Out of the Bottle: World Oil since 1970. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996.
Block, Michael, and John Shadegg. '' Lights Out on Federal Power: Privatization for the 21st Century. '' Washington: Progress and Freedom Foundation, October 1996.
Bradley, Robert L. Jr. Oil, Gas, and Government: The U. S. Experience. Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, 1996.
Lee, Thomas, Ben Ball Jr., and Richard Tabors. Energy Aftermath. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1990.
Niskanen, William A. '' R& D and Economic Growth— Cautionary Thoughts. '' In Science for the 21st Century. Edited by Claude Barfeld. Washington: AEI Press, 1997.
Robinson, Colin. '' Energy Economists and Economic Liberalism. '' Energy Journal 21, no. 2 (2000).
Stelzer, Irwin. The Department of Energy: An Agency That Cannot Be Reinvented. Washington: American Enterprise Institute Studies in Policy Reform, 1996.
Taylor, Jerry, and Peter VanDoren. '' Evaluating the Case for Renewable Energy: Is Government Support Warranted? '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 422, January
10, 2002. VanDoren, Peter. Politics, Markets, and Congressional Policy Choices. Ann Arbor:
University of Michigan Press, 1991. Wirl, Franz. The Economics of Conservation Programs. Boston: Kluwer, 1997.
—Prepared by Jerry Taylor
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47. U. S. Security Strategy
Congress should
act as a much-needed check on the executive branch's reflexive
tendency to expand the global political and military role of the United States under the guise of U. S. '' global leadership''
or the U. S. war on terrorism, initiate a comprehensive review of existing U. S. security com-mitments
and jettison those that are not clearly linked to vital national security interests,
review the defense budget and make the necessary reductions
to bring it in line with a security strategy that is based on the defense of vital national security interests, and
refuse to provide funding for military interventions except when
such an intervention is a necessary response to a national security threat.
Since September 11, 2001, it has been easy and tempting to define U. S.
national security strategy solely in terms of the terrorist threat. Some
observers would fill the vacuum in the threat environment left by the
demise of the Soviet Union by focusing on al-Qaeda and other terrorist
organizations. But such thinking would simply be falling back on Cold
War habits. Instead of focusing solely on terrorism, the United States
needs to formulate a viable national security posture to address the greatly
changed strategic environment, of which the terrorist threat is only one
component.
In the 21st century, instead of devoting tremendous national resources—
blood and treasure— to defending the entire world against all manner of
threats, the United States should behave as a normal great power. Like
any great power, the United States must vigorously protect its vital national
security interests using many means, including force. Absent a hegemonic
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threat, such as the Soviet Union, however, the United States should be
able to rise above most day-to-day turmoil around the globe.
Instead of curtailing Cold War– era overseas security commitments, the
United States has assumed significant new ones under the mantle of U. S.
'' global leadership. '' Much of the Persian Gulf region has become a de
facto U. S. military protectorate, and the enlarged NATO obligates the
United States to defend 19 countries (up from 16) as if they were U. S.
territory. Another round of NATO expansion, which makes the first look
modest, is in the offing. The United States is also increasingly immersed
in parochial regional conflicts, most notably in the Balkans— where Wash-ington's
preoccupation with Kosovo adds to the burden undertaken in
Bosnia with the ill-conceived Dayton accords.
The war on terrorism is the most recent example of not focusing on
the core threats to vital U. S. security interests. What started as a war
against terrorists with global reach (i. e., the al-Qaeda terrorist network
responsible for the September 11 attacks) has morphed into a larger war
against terrorism in general (even terrorist groups that do not focus their
attacks against the United States) and '' rogue states'' seeking to acquire
weapons of mass destruction.
U. S. '' Global Leadership'' and Strategic Overextension
The United States cannot solve all the world's problems or rid the
world of evil. It cannot act as the world's armed social worker— taking
responsibility for rehabilitating the rest of world by redressing human
rights violations, humanitarian disasters, and the absence of democracy
wherever such blight offends American sensibilities. And the United States
cannot exterminate terrorism.
Nor can the United States be the global cop. Washington is not the
arbiter of law and order throughout the world, even when it comes to
such matters as weapons proliferation or the activities of the '' axis of
evil'' (Iraq, Iran, and North Korea) and other '' rogue states. ''
Policymakers and politicians often call upon the United States to play
each of those roles or, more ominously, both. Republicans and Democrats
alike call upon the United States to show '' global leadership''— suggesting
that the United States is responsible to some degree for everyone, every-where.
Even the most ardent internationalists may not necessarily believe
that. But basing U. S. national security strategy on a mission to lead the
world clearly results in making all crises and conflicts important rather
than deciding which situations demand Washington's attention and which
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can be left to run their course. It is a prescription for strategic overextension,
inconsistency, and hypocrisy.
September 11 only further highlights the need for the United States to
distance itself from problems that are not vital to U. S. national security.
Much of the anti-American resentment around the world— particularly in
the Islamic world— is the result of interventionist U. S. foreign policy. The
more the United States meddles in the internal affairs of other countries
and regions, the more likely such actions will be to fuel extreme hatred
of the United States. Such hatred is a steppingstone to violence, including
terrorism. The Bush administration even admits the relationship between
American '' global presence and engagement'' and retaliatory acts of terror-ism
against the United States. Therefore, the United States would actually
be more secure if it became less involved in other people's problems.
Making Promises Washington Cannot Keep
Put simply, the United States is incapable of keeping many of the
commitments it has made. Moreover, there was no credible strategic
rationale for assuming most of those obligations in the first place. That
recklessness has been expensive, and the costs are sure to rise unless
major adjustments are made.
The potential military implications of making empty promises (or
threats) are obvious. When the United States intervened in Somalia, pledg-ing
to create stability amidst cruel urban warfare, it quickly became appar-ent
that U. S. troops had undertaken a mission without adequate resources.
American soldiers lacked both physical equipment suitable for such warfare
and, perhaps even more serious, Washington's political backing to succeed
in their mission. One of the more gruesome results was the ambush
that killed 18 U. S. Army Rangers in the streets of Mogadishu. Pressure
immediately built to withdraw U. S. forces. When the high costs— both
financial and human— of such commitments become apparent, the Ameri-can
public is unwilling to support interventions that do not involve U. S.
vital interests.
Even in the war on terrorism, the United States is flirting with involve-ment
in situations that entail nonvital interests. The U. S. involvement in
the Philippines and in the Republic of Georgia provides two examples.
The U. S. military is aiding the Philippine government in dealing with the
Abu Sayef guerrillas, who are not so much terrorists as financially moti-vated
kidnappers. Even Philippine president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo
admits that there ceased to be evidence of al-Qaeda in the Philippines
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after 1995. The U. S. plan to train and equip the Georgian military is based
on the belief that al-Qaeda members and other Islamic extremists from
Chechnya have taken refuge in the Pankisi Gorge region along the Georgia-Chechnya
border. But such terrorists are Russia's problem more than
America's. And clearly the Georgian government is using the pretext of
terrorism to invite the U. S. military to protect the country against Russia
(which supported the U. S.-led military effort in Afghanistan) and its influ-ence
over Georgian provinces seeking independence and closer ties to
Russia.
Instead of focusing on mopping up the remnants of al-Qaeda and Taliban
in Afghanistan, the U. S. military presence there has moved dangerously
close to peacekeeping and nation-building operations. The military mission
now seems to be focused on protecting Afghan president Hamid Karzai
and keeping his government in power. That is a prescription for disaster.
In the end, it is impossible for an intervening party's actions (no matter
how well-intentioned) to not alter the power calculations of all the rival
factions. Invariably, the outside party will do something that is seen as
benefiting one side's interests at the expense of all others' interests. And
the outside party then becomes a target for violence. The United States
needs to learn from and not repeat what happened in Lebanon in the
1980s and Somalia in the 1990s.
Pursuing a policy of intervention anywhere and everywhere has concrete
costs that the United States can ill afford. The budget for national defense—
approximately $400 billion in fiscal year 2003— is one of the most obvious
financial costs. In real terms, today's budget is greater than the average
budget during the Cold War and costs about $1,400 per year for every
American man, woman, and child. Much of that sum can be attributed to
Washington's overambitious national security posture.
The human costs must also be considered. Impressive military spending
is not always enough to maintain a stance of global military leadership—
sometimes U. S. troops will have to be put at risk to prove U. S. prowess.
Americans will die for purposes far less important than U. S. security.
Alleged Benefits of U. S. Political and Military Leadership
Proponents of the U. S. crusade to lead the world point to several
purported benefits of that policy. One of the most persistent myths is
that— by assuming responsibility for leading the world— the United States
is able to persuade other countries to share the costs of initiatives that it
would otherwise have to bear alone. The Gulf War is the preeminent
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example of such alleged burden sharing. Yet the United States offered
concrete economic or political rewards to many key countries to encourage
their participation in the coalition against Iraq. Moreover, Washington
today continues to pay about $80 billion per year to defend Saudi Arabia
and the other wealthy southern Persian Gulf states. The Europeans buy
far more oil from this region than does the United States but do little to
help defend it. The price tag for defending the region clearly eclipses
any temporary burden sharing that occurred back in 1991. Washington's
willingness to assume responsibility for security in many parts of the
world— not only in the Persian Gulf region but in East Asia and Europe
as well— encourages free riding, not burden sharing.
More important, the United States does not need to defend Persian Gulf
oil at all. The oil market has changed dramatically since the 1970s. (Even
then, oil shortages reduced the nation's gross domestic product by less
than half of 1 percent.) New technology has allowed new sources of oil
to be tapped and increased the efficiency of its usage. As a result, the
Persian Gulf supplies less of the world's oil than it did during the 1970s.
In addition, the U. S. economy is much less vulnerable to oil shocks than
it was in the 1970s: the United States spent 9 percent of its gross domestic
product on oil in the 1970s; today it spends only 3 percent, and the
economy can more easily shift to other fuels. Even at the time of the Gulf
War, prominent economists from across the political spectrum cautioned
that defending oil was not a justification for war. That argument is even
stronger today.
Another rationale for attempting to manage global security is that a
world without U. S. hegemony would soon degenerate into a tangle of
chaos and instability, in which weapons proliferation, genocide, terrorism,
and other offensive activities would be rampant. Prophets of such a devel-opment
hint that if the United States fails to exercise robust political and
military leadership today, the world is condemned to repeat the biggest
mistakes of the 20th century— or perhaps do something even worse.
Such thinking is seriously flawed. First, instability in the international
system is nothing new, and most episodes do not affect U. S. vital interests.
Furthermore, to assert that U. S. global leadership can stave off otherwise
inevitable global chaos vastly overstates the power of any single country
to influence world events. Indeed, many of the problems that plague the
world today, such as civil wars and ethnic strife, are largely impervious
to external solutions. There is little to back up an assertion that only
Washington's management of international security can save the world
from political, economic, or military conflagration.
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A World without U. S. Intervention
If Washington renounces world political and military leadership, is the
United States condemned to stand idly by while villains and irredentists
around the world terrorize helpless populations? It is unfortunate but true
that brutal civil or subregional conflicts are likely to mar the future— as
they do the present and have the past. Furthermore, there are many parochial
wars that simply cannot be settled by outside powers at an acceptable
cost to those powers, whether or not the United States claims the mantle
of global leadership.
A more critical issue is the evolution of the international system after
the United States adopts a policy of strategic independence. Washington
can exert considerable, though not complete, influence over how that
system develops. A number of different systems may be acceptable to the
United States, but two conditions are essential: First, power must be
diffuse— that is, not concentrated in the hands of a single state or multina-tional
organization. Second, the system must have a means of checking
aspiring hegemons.
Such a system could take several forms. One possibility is to strengthen
regional security organizations— both to keep order among member states
and to take care of contingencies in their immediate areas. The European
Union, with a more robust military capability, would likely be an appro-priate
organization for promoting security in Europe.
Spheres of influence would also be a possibility. Although that idea
sometimes has a sinister connotation, there is nothing inherently wrong
with the concept that major powers take an interest and play a major role
in affairs in their regions. As long as dominant powers restrict their
activities to normal great power behavior— which would generally mean
shoring up prestige and security but not expanding their domains— spheres
of influence are potentially a valuable means of keeping order in cer-tain
regions.
Yet another alternative is the establishment of regional balance-of-power
arrangements. This approach would be appropriate in areas where
there is no dominant power around which a sphere of influence is likely
to develop— such as in the Middle East, where the locus of power tends
to shift among the larger states and little enthusiasm exists for a regional
security organization.
The United States as Balancer of Last Resort
As long as any international system possesses the two key features
mentioned above— diffuse power and a means of checking would-be
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hegemons— the United States could tolerate a variety of regional arrange-ments.
As long as no single power or group of powers emerges with the
capability and intent of challenging American vital interests, the United
States will be reasonably secure. In particular, as long as a hostile hegemon
does not have the potential to overrun regions of high economic output—
that is, Europe or East Asia— or does not try to interrupt U. S. trade,
American vital interests will not be threatened.
To further enhance its security, the United States should always maintain
sufficient military strength so that it could reestablish the balance of power
if a serious imbalance were to develop. It should, however, act only as a
balancer of last resort. The United States should allow smaller-scale shifts
and civil strife to be addressed at the regional level. The risks and costs
of serving as balancer of last resort are much more manageable than is a
quixotic crusade to lead the world.
Suggested Readings
Carpenter, Ted Galen. Peace and Freedom: Foreign Policy for a Constitutional Republic. Washington: Cato Institute, 2002.
. '' Toward Strategic Independence: Protecting Vital American Interests. '' Brown Journal of World Affairs 2, no. 1 (Summer 1995).
Conry, Barbara. '' U. S. Global Leadership: A Euphemism for World Policeman. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 267, February 5, 1997.
Eland, Ivan. Putting '' Defense'' Back into U. S. Defense Policy. Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 2001.
Layne, Christopher. '' From Preponderance to Offshore Balancing: America's Future Grand Strategy. '' International Security 22, no. 2 (Summer 1997).
Mandelbaum, Michael. '' Foreign Policy as Social Work. '' Foreign Affairs 75, no. 1 (January– February 1996).
Nordlinger, Eric. Isolationism Reconsidered: American Foreign Policy for a New Century. Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1995.
Olsen, Edward A. U. S. National Defense for the Twenty-First Century: The Grand Exit Strategy. London: Frank Cass, 2002.
—Prepared by Barbara Conry and Charles V. Pen~ a
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48. The Defense Budget
Congress should
reduce the budget for national defense from the current sum
of about $400 billion to about $200 billion (in fiscal year 2004 dollars)— in increments over five years;
add to the $200 billion total the $10 billion per year spent
appropriately on military operations in the war on terrorism; make it clear that the reduced budget must be accompanied
by a more restrained national military posture that requires enough forces to fight one major theater war instead of the
current posture based on the need to fight in two theaters nearly simultaneously;
restructure U. S. forces to reflect the American geostrategic
advantage of virtual invulnerability to invasion by deeply cut-ting ground forces (Army and Marines) while retaining a larger
percentage of the Navy and Air Force; authorize a force structure of 5 active-duty Army divisions
(down from 10 now), 1 active Marine division (reduced from 3 now), 14 Air Force fighter wings (down from 20 now), 200
Navy ships (down from 316), and 6 carrier battle groups with 6 Navy air wings (reduced from 12 and 11, respectively);
require that the armed services compensate for reduced active
forces by relying more on the National Guard and the reserves in any major conflict;
terminate force structure or weapons systems that are unneeded
and use the savings to give taxpayers a break and to beef up neglected mission areas; and
terminate all peacekeeping and overseas presence missions
so that the armed services can concentrate on training to fight wars and to deploy from the U. S. homeland in an expeditionary
mode should that become necessary.
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The Context for Defense Policy
Paradoxically, the massive amount the United States spends on national
defense each year, and the profligate military interventions conducted
overseas with the forces generated by such spending, may actually make
the United States less, rather than more, secure.
A nation's defense policy (including the defense budget) should reflect
its security situation— that is, the geopolitical realities of its environment.
U. S. defense policy fails to take such realities into account.
Advocates of higher military budgets regret that U. S. spending on
national defense has declined to about 3 percent of the nation's gross
domestic product, its lowest point since 1940. As a result, they argue that
U. S. security is being severely compromised. Although defense spending
as a percentage of GDP is a good indicator of what proportion of the
national wealth is being appropriated for defense, it is not an indicator of
what amount should be spent on a nation's defense. Such spending should
be based on the nation's geostrategic situation and the threats to its vital
interests (which have declined dramatically since the end of the Cold
War). Besides, no nation ever fought another nation with a percentage of
its GDP. Nations fight other nations with military forces that are purchased
with finite quantities of resources.
When the U. S. annual budget for national defense is compared with
those of other nations, the true magnitude of U. S. defense spending
becomes clear. The United States alone accounts for more than one-third
of the world's military spending. U. S. defense spending roughly equals
the combined spending of the next 11 nations— 8 of which are our wealthy
friends and allies (only Russia and China fall outside this group). The
United States spends more than all of its wealthy friends and allies com-bined
and about double what all of its rich NATO allies combined spend.
More important, the United States spends three times the combined amount
spent by nations that are '' potential threat states''— Russia, China, Iraq,
Iran, Syria, Libya, Cuba, and North Korea.
The United States could probably spend less, not more, than other major
nations and remain secure. The United States is blessed with one of the
most secure geostrategic environments the world has ever seen. It is
virtually invulnerable to an invasion. The United States has two great
oceans separating it from other major powers and weak and friendly
neighbors on its borders, and no major power exists in the Western
Hemisphere to pose a challenge. Most important, any nation foolish enough
to attack the United States would face the devastation of its homeland by
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the world's most formidable nuclear arsenal. In short, a large portion of
the $400 billion spent annually on defense (almost $1,400 per American)
has nothing to do with U. S. security and lots to do with the expensive,
self-appointed role of '' world leader. ''
Of course, the attacks on September 11 brought home the vulnerability
of the United States to strikes by terrorists using conventional means.
Even the Bush administration admits that a strategy of global presence
and engagement causes retaliatory attacks on the United States. The huge
U. S. military is much larger than needed to conduct the small brushfire
wars required to fight terrorism (much of the war on terrorism will be
conducted by U. S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies, not the
military)— the only real major threat to U. S. security in the post– Cold
War world. (The $10 billion per year spent appropriately on military
operations in the war on terrorism is only a small portion of the $400
billion per year spent on national defense and would be added to Cato's
proposed $200 billion budget for national defense.) In fact, the large
military and the temptation to use it to intervene all over the world actually
reduce the security of the U. S. homeland. Therefore, adopting a policy
of military restraint and cutting the defense budget would actually enhance
security at home.
New Criterion for Determining the Size of U. S. Forces Is Needed
The virtual invulnerability of the United States allows it to define
its vital interests narrowly and intervene militarily only when they are
threatened. There has always been— and will always be— instability in
the world (although, since the Cold War ended, most indicators have
shown that it is declining). In the vast majority of cases, however, instability
will not threaten vital American interests. If the United States pursued a
policy of military restraint, it could reduce its budget for national defense
by half— from $400 billion to about $200 billion (fiscal 2004 dollars) per
year— and still be, by far, the most capable military power in the world.
(Japan— which comes in a distant second among nations with first-rate
militaries on any scale of defense expenditures— spends only about $45
billion per year on defense.)
Adopting a policy of military restraint would allow the United States
to size its forces to fight one major theater war instead of two concurrently,
as envisioned by the Pentagon. Even that reduction in forces would provide
some hedge against uncertainty. Acting as a '' balancer of last resort, '' the
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United States would assist other nations in shoring up a deteriorating
balance of power only in such critical regions as Europe and East Asia (the
areas of the world with large concentrations of economic and technological
power). Like-minded nations in the affected region would provide most
of the ground forces and some air forces; the United States would also
provide air power— its comparative advantage. U. S. air power could
quickly be dispatched to help friendly nations halt the offensive of a
serious aggressor state. Some U. S. ground forces eventually might be
needed to help retake lost territory, but that is a remote possibility that
should not be considered a high-priority mission.
In a post– Cold War world, the goal of purchasing enough forces to
fight in two theaters nearly simultaneously can be abandoned because it
is now extremely unlikely that the United States would be required to
balance against a regional hegemon in Europe and East Asia at the same
time (a World War II scenario). The Bush administration has moved below
the force posture needed to win two regional wars decisively, which was
followed during the Clinton administration, but still wants enough forces
to win decisively in one theater and to stop an enemy offensive in the
other region. But if two regional aggressors arose simultaneously, there
would be plenty of lead time to build up U. S. forces. It now takes much
longer to develop and produce high-technology weapons than it did before
World War II, and the United States would be in the lead rather than
attempting to catch up with potential aggressors. In the unlikely event that
two hegemons arose quickly, the United States could fight them sequen-tially
rather than nearly simultaneously.
Optimal U. S. Force Structure
The Department of Defense's 1993 Bottom-Up Review (BUR) allocated
a block of forces to conduct one major regional conflict. The block
consisted of 4– 5 Army divisions, 4– 5 Marine brigades (between 1 and 2
divisions), 10 Air Force wings, 100 heavy bombers, and 4– 5 aircraft
carrier battle groups. Prudent military planning might require that this
'' one war'' force structure be augmented to add even more cushion for
unforeseen circumstances. Thus, an optimal force structure can be created
that still saves money. That force structure would consist of 5 active Army
divisions (down from 10 now), 1 active Marine division (reduced from
3 now), 14 Air Force air wings (down from 20 now), 187 heavy bombers
(down only slightly from 208 now), 200 ships (down from 317), 6 aircraft
carrier battle groups and 6 Navy air wings (reduced from 12 and 11,
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respectively), and 25 nuclear-powered attack submarines (down from the
current force of 55 vessels).
Such a force structure would cut 5 active Army divisions, 2 active
Marine divisions, 6 Air Force air wings, and more than 100 ships from
existing forces. Thus, it would cut Army forces by 50 percent, Marine
forces by 67 percent, tactical Air Force forces by 30 percent, and Navy
forces by a little more than one-third (Table 48.1). (The optimal budget
is roughly half the current level. Some of the savings accruing from
reducing the forces are used to purchase high-technology items— such as
electronic sensors and information systems and precision weapons— that
are vital to winning future wars.)
In this alternative force structure, ground forces— the Army and the
Marine Corps— have been reduced more than the Air Force and Navy.
Such a shift of emphasis makes sense for a nation that faces no threat
from an invading ground force. There are long distances between the
United States and any potential adversary. With a small standing army,
more reliance would need to be placed on the National Guard and the
reserves. In the case of the rare, large-scale war in a foreign theater that
requires substantial ground forces to win back lost territory, plenty of
time will be available to mobilize the forces of the National Guard and
the reserves.
Table 48.1 Proposed Cuts in U. S. Military Forces
Optimal Percentage
Force Component Planned Force Force Structure Reduction
Active Army divisions 10 5 50
Active Marine divisions 3 1 67
Air Force tactical fighter
wings 20 14 30
Air Force heavy bombers 208 187 0
Total Navy ships 317 200 37
Navy aircraft carrier
battle groups 12 6 50
Navy carrier air wings 11 6 45
Nuclear-powered attack
submarines 55 25 55
SOURCE: Planned force structure from William Cohen, Annual Report to the President and Congress (Washing-ton:
U. S. Department of Defense, 2001).
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A much smaller Marine Corps will also rely more heavily on the
reserves. Although the BUR stated the need for more than one division
to fight a major conflict, one existing reserve division can supplement the
active division to meet that requirement. Only one Marine division needs
to be active; there has been no large-scale amphibious assault since Inchon
during the Korean War. In the post– World War II period, the Marines
have most often been used in small-scale interventions in the Third World.
Such interventions should be undertaken only rarely.
The Air Force would be cut the least of any service. Air power proved
devastatingly effective during the wars in the Persian Gulf and Kosovo,
and the United States has traditionally had a comparative advantage in
air power. Air Force tactical aircraft should be favored over Navy tactical
aircraft because land-based aircraft have a greater range and bomb-carrying
capacity (that is, have greater efficiency) than aircraft that operate from
carriers.
In any major war, friendly nations will more than likely provide land
bases from which U. S. aircraft can operate. If such bases become more
vulnerable to enemy missile attacks, the United States will need to buy
theater missile defenses to protect the bases, purchase short-take-off aircraft
that can be dispersed to unfinished airfields, or use long-range heavy
bombers that can operate from distant bases in the region. Such measures
would be better than relying more on expensive aircraft carriers and naval
aircraft. For this reason, the U. S. heavy bomber fleet— which has great
range and large bomb-carrying capacity— should be reduced only slightly.
Nonetheless, some aircraft carriers and naval aircraft are needed. Like
the Marines, in the post– World War II period Navy carriers have been
used primarily to provide forward presence in overseas theaters and for
small-scale interventions in the Third World (so-called crisis response).
If the United States observed a policy of military restraint, the need for
such missions would be rare. Instead, carrier battle groups would sail from
the United States and be used to control the seas, to protect American
trade if it were threatened, and to provide air power in the rare instances
when land bases were not available.
The elimination of the overseas military presence and crisis response
missions would allow a substantial reduction in the number of carrier
battle groups. Six carrier battle groups would suffice to control the seas
and protect trade. The United States— with six carriers— would still have
bone-crushing dominance over any other fleet in the world. Although the
BUR suggested that four or five carriers would be needed to fight a
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regional conflict, there has always been a dispute about whether that
number included the carrier at the dock undergoing extensive overhaul.
To be conservative, another carrier was added, bringing the total to six.
After the Cold War, the Navy's increased emphasis on providing air
support for Marine amphibious assaults made Marine air wings redundant;
such air wings should be eliminated.
The demise of the Soviet nuclear attack submarine fleet would allow
the United States to cut its attack submarine force by more than half, from
55 to 25.
Savings achieved through decommissioning some military units and
their existing equipment could be supplemented by savings accruing from
canceling new weapons systems, currently in development or production,
that are either unneeded in principle or relics of the Cold War. Some of
those savings could be returned to taxpayers through reductions in the
defense budget and some could be reallocated to increase funding for
previously neglected, but important, military missions.
Terminate All Peacekeeping and Overseas Presence Missions
Peacekeeping and overseas presence missions (U. S. troops stationed
overseas and regular naval deployments in overseas theaters) have nothing
to do with safeguarding vital U. S. interests. In the more benign security
environment of the post– Cold War world, such missions only discourage
wealthy U. S. allies from spending the resources needed to provide for
their own security. Furthermore, those missions lower morale in U. S.
forces and consume resources and time that should be used for training
to fight wars and to deploy from the United States in the rare cases in
which a foreign conflict threatens U. S. vital interests.
Benefits of Adopting the Alternative Defense Posture
Adopting a foreign policy of military restraint overseas, buying the
forces needed to fight one regional war, and reducing the budget for
national defense by more than a third would help to keep the United States
out of unnecessary foreign wars. Such potential quagmires have little to
do with vital American security interests and incur exorbitant costs— in
both resources and American lives (those of both U. S. military personnel
overseas and civilians at home, who will be the victims of terrorist attacks
in retaliation for an interventionist American foreign policy). A smaller
military would also help safeguard U. S. liberties at home.
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Suggested Readings
Carpenter, Ted Galen. A Search for Enemies: America's Alliances after the Cold War. Washington: Cato Institute, 1992.
Conetta, Carl, and Charles Knight. '' Inventing Threats. '' Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, March– April 1998.
Eland, Ivan. Putting '' Defense'' Back in U. S. Defense Policy: Rethinking U. S. Security. Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 2001.
. '' Subtract Unneeded Nuclear Attack Submarines from the Fleet. '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 47, April 2, 1998.
. '' Tilting at Windmills: Post– Cold War Military Threats to U. S. Security. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 332, February 8, 1999.
Isenberg, David, and Ivan Eland. '' Empty Promises: Why the Bush Administration's Half-Hearted Attempts at Defense Reform Have Failed. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no.
442, June 11, 2002. Murray, Williamson. '' Hard Choices: Fighter Procurement in the Next Century. '' Cato
Institute Policy Analysis no. 334, February 26, 1999. . '' The United States Should Begin Work on a New Bomber Program Now. ''
Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 368, March 16, 2000.
—Prepared by Ivan Eland
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49. Cut Unneeded Weapon Systems
Congress should terminate or reduce procurement of the follow-ing unneeded weapon systems:
the Air Force's F-22 fighter,
the Navy's F/ A-18E/ F Super Hornet carrier-based fighter/
attack aircraft, the Navy's Virginia-class submarine,
the Marine Corps' V-22 tiltrotor transport aircraft, and
the Army's Comanche helicopter.
New Threat Environment Requires a Reallocation of Resources
The war in Afghanistan following the September 11, 2001, terrorist
attacks confirmed what the Bush administration and many defense analysts
had anticipated: the forces, weapons, and tactics of the Cold War are not
optimal for fighting new adversaries in the post– Cold War era. The war
in Afghanistan was won with unmanned aerial vehicles providing recon-naissance
and surveillance and special forces on the ground supporting
attacking aircraft (the most efficient of which were long-range bombers)
by calling in targets. Previously, the paradigm had been to use manned
fighter aircraft to support large ground forces engaged against the adver-sary,
with unmanned aerial vehicles playing a marginal role. The terrorist
attacks and subsequent war showed that President Bush's initiative to
transform the military to fight future threats was more vital than ever before.
Both in his campaign and in his first months in office, the president
spoke of transforming the military by modernizing weapons selectively
and moving beyond marginal improvements to radically new technologies.
He also advocated a military defined less by size and more by mobility
and the ability to deploy more easily and project power over long distances.
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The president has terminated the Army's Crusader mobile artillery gun,
which was too heavy to deploy easily. Yet, for the most part, vested interests
have resisted the president's call to transform the nation's armed forces.
Congress should help the president modernize weapons selectively and
skip a generation of technology by cutting unneeded or Cold War– era arms
programs and reallocating resources to more urgent needs and research
programs for futuristic weapons.
Cut Unneeded and Cold War– Era Weapons
Many weapons the Pentagon is currently procuring were originally
designed during the Cold War (for example, the Marine Corps' V-22
tiltrotor aircraft). Some weapons now in development entered that process
during the Cold War and were to be used against a threat that is now
gone or never came to fruition (for example, the Army's Comanche
helicopter and the Air Force's F-22 fighter). In addition, the tradition-bound
military services are buying successors to Cold War systems (for
example, the Navy's Virginia-class submarine and F-18E/ F aircraft). Some
weapons are too costly (for example, the F-22). Finally, both the executive
branch and Congress build unneeded weapons to dole out pork to inefficient
defense industries and favored congressional districts. Thus, inertia, tradi-tion,
and pork undermine the rational development and procurement of
weapon systems. Congress should terminate or reduce procurement of the
following '' white elephant'' weapons:
F-22 Raptor and F/ A-18E/ F Tactical Fighters
The current generation of American aircraft (the Air Force's F-15 and
F-16 and the Navy's F-14 and F-18C/ D) will enjoy crushing air superiority
over all other air forces for the foreseeable future. According to Eliot
Cohen, director of the Strategic Studies Program at Johns Hopkins Univer-sity
and an acknowledged expert on air power, '' There's not anybody
who's going to be comparable to us for as long as you can see. ''
But the U. S. military services are currently developing or purchasing
three new fighter aircraft (the Air Force's F-22, the Navy's F/ A-18E/ F,
and the multiservice Joint Strike Fighter) at a cost of about $340 billion.
The three new fighter aircraft alone will consume a quarter of the Penta-gon's
annual budget for procuring new weapons and '' crowd out'' the
purchase of weapons that should have a higher priority— for example, a
modestly priced replacement for aging U. S. bombers. Thus, two of the
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three aircraft— the F-22 and F/ A-18E/ F— should be terminated or pur-chased
only in drastically reduced numbers.
The Air Force designed the stealthy F-22 aircraft primarily to fight
futuristic Soviet fighters that were never built. The F-22 would replace
the best air superiority fighter in the world today— the F-15C. The United
States could maintain its current dominance of the skies well into the
future using upgraded F-15Cs, superbly trained pilots, new munitions, and
Airborne Warning and Control System aircraft (the best aircraft in the
world for management of air battle and a potent force multiplier). No
current or future threat to U. S. air superiority exists that would justify
spending nearly $63 billion for 341 F-22 aircraft. As a result, the aircraft
will probably be used mainly for air-to-ground attack, which it is not
optimally designed to do. (Besides, the United States already has the
F-117 and B-2 planes to perform stealthy ground attack missions.) At
nearly $200 million for each aircraft, the F-22 is the most expensive, least
needed fighter ever built.
Although the F/ A-18E/ F is an entirely different aircraft than the
F/ A-18C/ D, it is not much of an improvement for about double the price
($ 86 million for each E/ F model). For example, although the E/ F has a
longer range and greater payload than the C/ D, it still has a shorter range
and smaller payload than the retired A-6 attack aircraft at a time when
the aircraft carrier is being pushed farther out to sea by enemy mines, cruise
missiles, and diesel submarines. Because the air-to-air threat environment is
so low, the C/ D model will most likely suffice for future air defense of
the fleet until the stealthy Navy version of the Joint Strike Fighter comes
on line. If a ground attack aircraft with longer range and greater payload
is needed before the stealthy Navy Joint Strike Fighter is ready, a special
naval version of the F-117 Nighthawk might provide an interim capability.
Virginia-Class Submarines
With the demise of the Soviet Union and the Russian submarine fleet
rusting in port, the existing U. S. force of Seawolf and 688 Los
Angeles– class vessels is unquestionably the best in the world and will
remain so for the foreseeable future. No other navy in the world even
comes close to U. S. undersea power. But the Navy has already begun
constructing 30 new Virginia-class submarines (at an average cost of $2.2
billion per ship) and decommissioning older 688 boats before their useful
life is over. The Virginia-class submarines will, in most respects, be
less capable than the Seawolf class— in size, speed, diving depth, and
weapons capacity.
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According to the U. S. General Accounting Office, the Navy could retain
its goal of 55 submarines in the force by merely refueling the nuclear
reactors of the older 688 boats. Moreover, the Navy justified hiking its
force goal from 50 to 55 submarines on the basis of increased requirements
for intelligence collection. During the Cold War the main target of intelli-gence
gathering by U. S. submarines was the Soviet fleet. Because most
of that fleet does not get out of port much anymore, the Pentagon has
added more countries to the list of reconnaissance targets. Yet justifying
the 55-boat goal on the basis of collecting intelligence is questionable.
With the end of the Cold War, conventional threats to the U. S. Navy and
the United States declined and so should have requirements for gathering
intelligence on such threats; instead they have doubled since 1989.
Although, in certain instances, the submarine can provide unique collection
capabilities, the United States has many other more versatile assets for
spying— for example, manned and unmanned aircraft and satellites— that
can perform missions less expensively than $2 billion submarines and are
not limited to collection in littoral areas. The United States should reduce
its submarine goal and terminate the Virginia-class line.
The V-22 Tiltrotor Aircraft
The V-22— which takes off (and lands) like a helicopter, then tilts its
rotors and flies as a fixed-wing aircraft— transports Marines and their
light equipment from amphibious ships to shore. The aircraft can go faster
and farther than a CH-53 heavy-lift helicopter but cannot carry the heavy
equipment the CH-53 can.
The V-22 program has been troubled by crashes and is 10 years behind
schedule and $15 billion over budget. In the 1980s and 1990s, senior
officials from the Reagan, Bush, and Clinton administrations, including
Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, recommended that the aircraft be
canceled. Because of the exorbitant cost of the aircraft, the first Bush
administration tried to terminate the program, but Congress reinstated it.
The V-22 is truly a vampire: despite the numerous crashes and the admis-sion
that the aircraft needs to be reengineered, the 2003 budget funds
production at a low rate until a fix can be found.
At almost $80 million per V-22 aircraft, transporting Marines and
equipment to shore by air could be done much more cheaply by buying
new versions of existing CH-53 rotary aircraft or even smaller helicopters
like the Blackhawk CH-60. Besides, against a capable opponent, if faster
V-22s transport Marines and their light equipment inland behind enemy
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lines and if slower CH-53s carry their heavy equipment, the Marines may
die before the heavy equipment reaches them.
Comanche Helicopter
The stealthy Comanche light reconnaissance (scout) and attack helicopter
was originally designed to hunt Soviet tanks on the central plains of Europe.
With the end of the Cold War and the demise of the threat of Soviet armored
attack, the aircraft has been remarketed as the '' quarterback of the digital
battlefield''— that is, a disseminator of tactical reconnaissance information
during battle. Suspicions naturally arise when the threat justifying a weapon
collapses, but the system lives on and develops another mission.
The Comanche is supposed to replace the OH-58 Kiowa scout helicop-ter;
the aircraft is also supposed to succeed the AH-1 Cobra light attack
helicopter in Army divisions that do not have the Apache heavy attack
helicopter. Even in the Gulf War against a Soviet-style armored force,
the Apache killed tanks effectively, with no need for a scout helicopter.
Besides, in the future, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and better infor-mation
networks may render the manned reconnaissance helicopter obso-lete.
UAVs are in some ways better reconnaissance platforms than the
Comanche. The unmanned aircraft are 15 percent faster, can loiter over
an area five times longer without refueling, and do not expose pilots to
enemy fire during usually dangerous reconnaissance missions. The AH-1
Cobra can be replaced by added purchases of an armed version of the
OH-58 helicopter— the Kiowa Warrior— which performed well in the
Gulf War.
At more than $30 million per helicopter, the Comanche is a very
expensive aircraft that can operate at night and in all weather. Although
the Comanche was originally touted as inexpensive, it is now more expen-sive
than the heavier Apache that has similar capabilities. The Apache
is being upgraded substantially with digital technology and augmented
firepower. The addition of the Longbow millimeter-wave radar will allow
the Apache to operate at night and in most weather conditions. An Army
with upgraded Apaches supplemented by added purchases of Kiowa War-riors
should be able to deal effectively with the less-threatening post– Cold
War environment.
Some Savings from Cutting Unneeded Weapons Could Fund More Critical Needs
Some of the savings generated by cutting unneeded weapons could be
used to fund research, development, and procurement in areas that the
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services usually neglect: special forces, long-range bombers, unmanned
aerial vehicles, defenses against cruise missiles, technology to detect and
neutralize sea mines, and equipment to protect against attacks with biologi-cal
and chemical weapons (Table 49. 1). The war in Afghanistan showed
that long-range bombers were devastating when guided to their targets by
information from unmanned aerial vehicles and special forces on the
ground. Much has been invested in defending U. S. forces against ballistic
missiles; less effort has been put into defending troops against attacks
from cheaper and more effective cruise missiles. More and more terrorists
and countries are working on weapons of mass destruction, so more should
be invested in defending U. S. forces and civilians at home from biological
Table 49.1 Weapon Systems to Terminate or Cut and Missions and Weapons
That Need Increased Funding
Weapon or Mission Function Service
Weapon Systems to Terminate or Cut
F-22 Air superiority fighter Air Force
F/ A-18E/ F Carrier-based fighter attack Navy
aircraft
Virginia-class
submarine Attack submarine Navy
V-22 Tiltrotor transport aircraft Marine Corps
Comanche Reconnaissance attack Army
helicopter
Neglected Missions and Weapons in Need of Increased Funding
Unmanned aerial
vehicles Reconnaissance, strike, etc. All
Heavy bomber (R& D) High-capacity, long-range Air Force
bomb delivery
Special forces Intelligence gathering, Army, Navy, Air Force
commando attacks,
designation of targets
Cruise missile defenses Defend U. S. forces against Army, Marine Corps
cruise missiles
Mine countermeasures Detect and neutralize sea Navy, Marine Corps
mines
Chemical and biological Defend forces and civilian All
defense population
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and chemical weapons. The Navy has neglected capabilities that can detect
and neutralize sea mines, which can be devastating to naval operations.
Because great advancements can be achieved for small amounts of funding
in most of those areas, the remainder of the savings from cuts could be
returned to the taxpayer.
Suggested Readings
Center for Defense Information. Weekly Defense Monitor. Various issues. Cohen, William S. Annual Report to the President and Congress. Washington: U. S.
Department of Defense, 2001. Eland, Ivan. Putting '' Defense'' Back in U. S. Defense Policy: Rethinking U. S. Security
in the Post– Cold War World. Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 2001.
. '' Subtract Unneeded Nuclear Attack Submarines from the Fleet. '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 47, April 2, 1998.
Murray, Williamson. '' Hard Choices: Fighter Procurement in the Next Century. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 334, February 26, 1999.
. '' The United States Should Begin Work on a New Bomber Now. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 368, March 16, 2000.
—Prepared by Ivan Eland
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50. Strategic Nuclear Forces and Missile Defense
Congress should
endorse a truly '' national'' limited land-based missile defense;
eschew grandiose sea-and space-based missile defenses—
which are unnecessary, expensive '' international'' systems designed to protect wealthy U. S. allies and friends and provide
a robust shield for unneeded U. S. interventions overseas; pressure the administration not to rush development and
deployment of land-based missile defense so that the system can be thoroughly tested under realistic conditions before a
decision is made to deploy it; encourage the administration to destroy— rather than put in
storage— warheads as part of the arms reduction agreement to reduce operationally deployed forces to 1,700– 2,200 war-heads
within the next 10 years; encourage the administration to propose even deeper cuts in
offensive strategic nuclear forces— down to a maximum of 1,500 warheads; and
reduce the triad of U. S. nuclear forces— nuclear-capable bomb-ers,
intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and sea-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs)— to a dyad.
The administration withdrew from the ABM Treaty to eliminate con-straints
on its goal of pursuing a robust ballistic missile defense program.
Although the administration envisions a global, layered missile defense
system (incorporating land-, sea-, and space-based weapons), the reality
is that a limited land-based system designed to protect the U. S. homeland
against the potential threat of long-range missiles from '' rogue'' states is
the most mature (though still not thoroughly tested and proven) and closest
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to fruition. Rather than be rushed to deployment, a limited missile defense
system should be developed at a measured pace because an excessively
rapid development program could waste taxpayer dollars on an ineffective
system. Missile defense should remain a research and development (R& D)
program until it has been thoroughly tested under realistic operational
conditions. Only then should a decision be made about its deployment.
Any defense expenditures— including those on missile defense— must
be commensurate with the threat. More robust missile defenses are not
justified by the present limited threat. Also, sinking large amounts of
money into more comprehensive missile defenses— when even the limited
land-based system might fail because of technical problems or lack of
adequate testing— is questionable.
A Limited Missile Defense Is Needed for a Limited Threat
Although it is not certain that North Korea or any other rogue state
will be capable of launching a missile attack against the United States by
2005, the R& D program for missile defense is being rushed to have a
system deployed by that date. Even if the threat from North Korea did
materialize by that date, the United States would probably be able to use
its offensive nuclear force to deter a missile attack from North Korea,
another rogue state, or any other state. Thus, missile defense would be
a backup system against a missile attack from a pariah state. Rushing
development to deploy a system without thorough and realistic operational
testing increases the probability that the system will ultimately be delayed,
will experience escalating costs, or will simply not work.
More important, rogue states have or will have options for striking the
United States other than long-range ballistic missiles. Such countries
already possess short-and medium-range ballistic missiles that could be
launched from ships operating in international waters off the U. S. coasts.
And a missile defense designed for use against long-range ICBMs will
not have the capability to intercept these shorter-range missiles. Moreover,
the kinds of missile defense systems designed to counter these threats
(commonly referred to as theater missile defense) would be extremely
expensive to deploy to protect the entire nation or even the coastlines (the
limited areas such systems can protect would require greater numbers of
systems) and are not part of the administration's plan for a missile defense
system to protect the United States.
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Rogue nations also may possess or could acquire cruise missiles that
could be launched from ships or, possibly, aircraft. Again, a missile defense
against long-range ICBMs will not be able to counter these threats, which
would require deploying an extensive (and likely expensive) air defense
system.
Finally, September 11, 2001, clearly demonstrated that the United States
is vulnerable to terrorist attack.
Such threats to the American homeland may be more inexpensive,
accurate, reliable, and thus more probable than that posed by ICBMs
launched from rogue states. Even the most hostile pariah state is likely
to hesitate to launch from its territory an ICBM against the United States.
U. S. satellites can detect the origin of such long-range missile launches,
and the world's most powerful nuclear force would almost certainly retali-ate
against the attacking nation. In contrast, the origin of terrorist attacks
or missile launches from ships or aircraft may be harder to determine,
which makes U. S. retaliation— and therefore deterrence— more difficult.
The existence of the other threats does not, of course, refute the argument
that long-range ballistic missiles also pose a threat and that the U. S.
government should combat the threats that can be defeated. But we must
understand that long-range ballistic missiles will be just one of several
possible threats.
None of the proposed missile defense systems to protect the United
States will have a defensive capability against either short-range ballistic
missiles or cruise missiles— delivery systems that rogue states and others
already possess. The best reason to have a limited missile defense may
be the possibility of accidental— rather than intentional— launches from
such states and limited accidental launches from established nuclear pow-ers.
Pariah states with newly acquired long-range missiles and nuclear
warheads may have poor early warning systems, only rudimentary com-mand
and control over such forces, nonexistent nuclear doctrine, and
insufficient safeguards against an accidental launch. In addition, in the
past, Russia's decrepit early warning systems have almost led to acciden-tal
launches.
Nevertheless, the primary threat from accidental or intentional launches
from rogue states is likely to be relatively modest (a few ICBMs) and
unsophisticated (their missiles are unlikely to have multiple warheads or
sophisticated decoys), requiring an equally modest response. A limited
ground-based missile defense system of 100 or so interceptors could
provide sufficient defensive capability against such threats.
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The Limited Threat Does Not Warrant '' International'' Defenses
Although it is portrayed to the American public as a '' national'' missile
defense, the global, layered system consisting of land-, sea-, and space-based
weapons favored by the administration is really an '' international''
missile defense system that would also defend U. S. allies and '' friends, ''
even though they are wealthy enough to build their own missile defenses.
The main objective of observers who support more comprehensive,
robust, and layered missile defense systems does not seem to be defense
of the U. S. homeland. Instead, their aim seems to be to create a stronger
shield behind which the United States can intervene against potential
regional adversaries possessing weapons of mass destruction and the long-range
missiles to deliver them. According to that reasoning, if such adver-saries
cannot threaten the United States or its allies with catastrophic
retaliation, U. S. policymakers will feel more confident about intervening
militarily. But because no missile defense system can guarantee that all
incoming warheads will be destroyed, such an increase in U. S. military
activism could actually undermine U. S. security in a catastrophic way.
Thus, deployment of a missile defense should be confined to a more
limited land-based '' national'' system, which is the most technologically
mature system.
Some proponents of missile defense argue that a sea-based system can
be deployed more quickly and will be less expensive than the limited
land-based system. They contend that the Navy Theater Wide system (a
system that is currently being designed to provide midcourse intercept
capability against slower, shorter-range theater ballistic missiles) can be
upgraded to destroy long-range ICBMs in their boost phase (when under
powered flight at the beginning of their trajectories). To intercept faster,
longer-range missiles in the boost phase, a new, faster interceptor would
need to be developed. That interceptor would probably not be compatible
with the vertical launchers of Navy ships. Forward-deployed sea-based
missile defense against ICBMs might also experience operational difficul-ties,
including greater vulnerability to attack, and detract from the Navy's
other missions, or require expensive new dedicated ships for missile
defense.
Some proponents have also advocated a sea-based midcourse system
as an alternative to a land-based system. But this would require dedicated
Aegis ships deployed near Alaska (where the proposed limited land-based
system would be deployed), necessitating an investment in additional ships
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and crews. And such ships would still be dependent on land-based radars—
the Aegis SPY-1B radar system is designed to track shorter-range and
slower ballistic and cruise missiles, and an X-band radar for ICBMs is
too large to be fitted aboard an Aegis ship. So it is puzzling how such a
system would be an improvement over a land-based deployment.
Even if a sea-based missile defense could be developed faster and
more inexpensively than the more mature land-based system (a dubious
proposition since the sea-based system would depend on sensor, communi-cation,
and kill vehicle technology being developed for the land-based
system), critical gaps in coverage would necessitate supplementing the
sea-based system with expensive space-based weapons. Unlike land-based
missile defense against ICBMs, a sea-based system is not a stand-alone
system.
Also, many advocates of sea-and space-based weapons want to protect
U. S. friends and allies. But the United States should refuse to cover those
wealthy nations— which spend too little on their own defense and already
benefit from significant U. S. security guarantees— with a missile defense.
A layered international missile defense that adds sea-and space-based
weapons will escalate the costs of the system dramatically. In addition,
an international defense is not warranted by the limited threat and should
not be used to defend rich allies who can afford to build their own
missile defenses.
A limited land-based system (for example, a hundred or more ground-based
interceptors designed to defend against tens of warheads from rogue
states) would not enable the United States to undermine nuclear stability
by threatening Russia's surviving offensive nuclear forces (even at reduced
levels, numbering in the hundreds or thousands of warheads), but more
robust defenses might do so. In addition, deploying robust defenses might
cause an '' action-reaction'' cycle with China. As China modernizes and
builds up its small nuclear forces (which will probably happen whether
or not U. S. defenses are deployed), robust defenses are much more likely
to cause a larger Chinese buildup than is a limited system. Congress needs
to encourage the administration to pursue a limited missile defense to
signal to both powers that the United States is not trying to achieve
strategic advantage.
Combine Limited Missile Defense with Deeper Cuts in Offensive Strategic Weapons
The most prudent course of action is to pursue development of a limited
missile defense system to defend the United States against rogue state
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threats and accidental launches and negotiate even deeper cuts in strategic
offensive forces.
In the much milder nuclear threat environment of a post– Cold War
world, if the United States changed its nuclear doctrine from war fighting
to deterrence, deep mutual reductions in offensive forces to levels below
the 1, 700 to 2,200 operationally deployed warheads of the Bush-Putin
arms reduction agreement (perhaps a ceiling as low as 1,500 warheads)
would still allow the United States to deter Russia and smaller or emerging
nuclear powers (Figure 50. 1). Also, with much lower numbers of warheads
in that more benign environment, it would be more efficient and cost-effective
to reduce the triad of nuclear forces— nuclear-capable bombers,
ICBMs, and SLBMs— to a dyad (possibly ICBMs and bombers or SLBMs
and bombers). The reduced threat of nuclear war would require less
redundancy among U. S. forces to complicate the attack plans of the
adversary.
Figure 50.1 Proposed Limits on Warheads in Each of the U. S. and
Russian Arsenals
6,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 0
Cato Propasal
Agreement
Bush-Putin
START II
START I
Lower Limit
Upper Limit
6,000
3,500
3,000
1,500
1,700
2,200
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Perhaps most important, the United States should destroy rather than
put in reserve the warheads taken off operational deployment. The primary
rationale for retaining more weapons in reserve is as a hedge against some
unforeseen future threat. The perceived need for a reserve seems to reflect
the thinking of many conservatives and military officials that Russia could
one day again become a nuclear rival or that China could pose a future
nuclear threat. If the United States and Russia have truly entered a new
stage in their relationship, then actions should match the rhetoric. Further-more,
the '' hedging'' logic becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the
United States retains more weapons, so will Russia. And the Chinese will
likely view the entire U. S. strategic arsenal— not just deployed weapons—
as a threat and react accordingly. Counting rules that allow the United
States to retain more weapons create an incentive for Russia, China, and
others to do the same.
Lower numbers of warheads in the inventories of Russia and the United
States would probably mean lower numbers of warheads on alert status,
and lower numbers of warheads on alert status would substantially reduce
the risk of an accidental nuclear launch. The lower inventory levels would
also mean that fewer nuclear warheads would be available to be stolen
or sold to rogue states or terrorist groups (that possibility is a particular
concern for the aging and insecure Russian nuclear stockpile).
Concerns about the safety and security of nuclear warheads put into
reserve status further highlight the need to destroy rather than store war-heads.
If the Russians decide to retain more weapons in storage, there are
legitimate concerns about the safety and security of those weapons. By
definition, they will be less secure than deployed weapons guarded regu-larly
by military personnel. Their relative lack of security makes them
attractive targets for terrorists seeking to acquire weapons of mass destruc-tion.
So taking the weapons off operational deployment without destroying
them could possibly lessen U. S. security rather than enhance it.
Recommended Readings
Coyle, Phillip. '' Rhetoric or Reality? Missile Defense under Bush. '' Arms Control Today
32, no. 4 (May 2002).
Eland, Ivan. '' Let's Make National Missile Defense Truly 'National. ''' Cato Institute
Foreign Policy Briefing no. 58, June 27, 2000.
Grahman, Bradley. Hit to Kill: The New Battle over Shielding America from Missile
Attack. New York: Public Affairs, 2001.
Holum, John. '' Assessing the New U. S.-Russian Pact. '' Arms Control Today 32, no. 5
(June 2002).
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Jones, Rodney. '' Taking National Missile Defense to Sea: A Critique of Sea-Based and Boost-Phase Proposals. '' Council for a Livable World Education Fund, October 2000.
Krepon, Michael. '' Defusing Today's Doomsday Machines. '' New Democrat Blueprint (Winter 2000): 20– 24.
Newhouse, John. '' The Missile Defense Debate. '' Foreign Affairs 80, no. 4 (July– August 2001).
O'Harlon, Michael E., James M. Lindsay, and Michael H. Armacost. '' Defending America: The Case for Limited National Missile Defense. '' Brookings Institution,
2001. Pen~ a, Charles V. '' Arms Control and Missile Defense: Not Mutually Exclusive. '' Cato
Institute Policy Analysis no. 376, July 26, 2000. . '' From the Sea: National Missile Defense Is Neither Cheap Nor Easy. '' Cato
Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 60, September 6, 2000. Pen~ a, Charles V., and Barbara Conry. '' National Missile Defense: Examining the
Options. '' Cato Policy Analysis no. 337, March 16, 1999. Slocombe, Walter B. '' Stability Effects of Limited Missile Defenses: The Case for the
Affirmative. '' The Global Politics and Strategy of Missile Defense, Pugwash Occa-sional Papers 3, no. 1 (March 2002).
Tanks, David. '' National Missile Defense: Policy Issues and Technological Capabilities. '' Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, April 2000.
—Prepared by Charles V. Pen~ a
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51. Policy toward NATO
Congress should
refuse to appropriate funds for any '' out-of-area'' NATO mili-tary
missions; oppose any further expansion of the alliance;
recognize that the growing gap between the military capabili-ties
of U. S. forces and those of the European members makes NATO increasingly less useful for significant military opera-tions;
recognize that NATO has little relevance in the war against
America's terrorist adversaries; pass a joint resolution endorsing the new European Security
and Defense Policy; pass legislation requiring the withdrawal of all U. S. forces
stationed in Europe by 2005; and conduct a comprehensive debate about whether continued
U. S. membership in NATO serves American interests— espe-cially in light of the alliance's change of focus from territorial
defense to murky peacekeeping and humanitarian interven-tion missions.
Ever since the end of its Cold War mission in the early 1990s, NATO
has sought to reinvent itself and remain relevant to Europe's new security
environment. The latest effort has been to take on the mission against
terrorism. That is likely to work no better than the previous campaign to
turn the alliance into a crisis-management organization to deal with turmoil
in the Balkans and other turbulent regions. Try as they may, NATO
partisans cannot escape the reality that the alliance is a Cold War institution
that is not well suited to address the security problems of the 21st century.
The admission of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic to NATO
in 1999 was a watershed event. It wasn't merely that the alliance was
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enlarged; that had occurred before. But for the first time NATO undertook
security responsibilities in Central and Eastern Europe. There also appear
to be no discernible limits to the potential enlargement of the alliance.
Indeed, NATO is now poised to invite the Baltic republics and other East
European nations to join.
While NATO contemplates enlarging its membership even further,
another equally momentous change has taken place in the alliance. When
NATO was first established in 1949, it was explicitly an alliance to defend
the territorial integrity of its member states. Indeed, the North Atlantic
Treaty contained a provision describing the region to be covered, lest there
be any implication that the United States was undertaking the protection of
the colonial holdings of its new West European allies.
NATO forces never fired a shot in anger during the Cold War, and the
alliance's first military operation did not involve the defense of a member
from attack. Instead, that initial mission took place in Bosnia, with NATO
aircraft bombing Bosnian Serb positions and the alliance trying to prop
up the Muslim-dominated government in Sarajevo. Later, NATO took
responsibility for implementing the Dayton Accords by deploying a peace-keeping
contingent in Bosnia, where it remains to this day. Then, in 1999,
the alliance launched an attack on Yugoslavia for Belgrade's conduct in
one of its own provinces: Kosovo.
Surprisingly few people in the United States or Western Europe pointed
out that the Bosnia and Kosovo missions were a stark departure from
NATO's original purpose or questioned whether they were authorized
under the provisions of the North Atlantic Treaty. Yet the Serbs never
attacked or even threatened to attack a NATO member. Sending NATO
troops on such '' out-of-area'' missions was a dramatic transformation of
the alliance's rationale. But the treaty has never been amended, nor has
such a change been debated by Congress or the parliaments of the other
NATO members.
Some thoughtful members of Congress and experts in the foreign policy
community have raised questions about the implications of the expansion
of NATO's membership and the transformation of NATO's purpose,
however. The two innovations are closely linked, and there are ample
reasons to be worried about both of them.
Many proponents of enlargement insist that a new NATO— something
more akin to a Euro-Atlantic collective security organization than to a
traditional military alliance— is evolving. U. S. policymakers are apparently
attempting to create a weird hybrid entity— part traditional alliance and
part collective security organization.
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The American people are likely to end up with the worst of both worlds:
a NATOthat periodically becomes entangled in messy, Bosnia-style peace-keeping
missions and Kosovo-style military interventions involving dis-putes
that have little, if any, relevance to vital American interests and a
NATO that is obligated to protect the alliance's new members in Central
and Eastern Europe if a threat by one of their neighbors— including their
great-power neighbor, Russia— ever emerges.
Both scenarios are worrisome. There is little doubt that many NATO
supporters see the Bosnia and Kosovo interventions as a model for future
NATO enterprises. Indeed, the transformation of NATO's focus has been
both breathtaking and alarming. It was once an alliance to keep Western
Europe— a major strategic and economic prize— out of the orbit of an
aggressively expansionist superpower, the Soviet Union. It has now
become the babysitter of the Balkans.
The Dangers of the '' New Nato''
As the leader of the '' new NATO, '' the United States is incurring
expensive and thankless responsibilities. The Bosnia mission has already
cost American taxpayers nearly $20 billion, and the meter is still running.
The ongoing intervention in Kosovo is running another $3 billion a year,
and the lives of American military personnel will be at risk there for years
to come. Yet even the out-of-area adventures in the Balkans do not fully
satisfy the ambitions of some '' new NATO'' enthusiasts. Former secretary
of state Warren Christopher and former secretary of defense William Perry
suggest that the alliance become an instrument for the projection of force
anywhere in the world '' Western interests'' are threatened. In a moment
of exuberance, then– secretary of state Madeleine Albright stated that
NATO should be prepared to deal with unpleasant developments '' from
the Middle East to Central Africa. '' NATO officials have shown increasing
interest in the security problems of the Caucasus and Central Asia.
The prospect of U. S. and other NATO troops being used as armed
social workers in vague out-of-area crusades is bad enough, but the other
scenario is equally troubling. For all the propaganda about the '' new
NATO'' and its more political orientation, NATO remains a military
alliance that is obliged to protect its members from armed attack from
any source. As NATO incorporates the nations of Central and Eastern
Europe, that obligation could entangle the United States in parochial
disputes involving a new member and one of its neighbors. Alliance
obligations might even put the United States in the middle of a conflict
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between two NATO members— something that Washington already frets
about because of the bad blood between Greece and Turkey.
Most ominous of all, Russia has important strategic, economic, and
cultural interests throughout much of Eastern Europe going back genera-tions
and, in some cases, centuries. Extending security commitments to
nations in what Moscow regards as its geopolitical '' back yard'' virtually
invites a challenge at some point. True, that is not an immediate problem.
The danger of an open breach between Russia and the West has receded,
given Russian president Vladimir Putin's surprisingly accommodationist
policies and the creation of the new Russia-NATO council as a sop to
Russia. The complete disarray of the Russian military also makes a chal-lenge
in the next decade or so highly improbable.
Nevertheless, the long-term danger remains. One cannot assume that
Russia will remain militarily weak and politically compliant forever. Yet
NATO's (and America's) security obligations to the alliance's new mem-bers
go on indefinitely. All that would be needed for a major crisis is for
one of Putin's successors to decide that a NATO presence on Russia's
doorstep is intolerable. It ought to be a firm rule of American foreign
policy not to extend security commitments that would be disastrous for
the United States to honor. In dealing with the '' new, improved NATO, ''
American officials are violating that cardinal rule.
Any Russian challenge in the future would create a horrific dilemma for
the United States. Washington would have to renege on treaty obligations to
its new allies or risk war with a nuclear-armed great power. The former
option would leave American credibility in ruins; the latter option might
leave America itself in ruins.
Congress needs to take immediate steps to limit the risks arising from
America's involvement in the new version of NATO. At the very least,
Congress should explicitly repudiate attempts to convert the alliance into
a force to police the Balkans and other troubled regions. That means
passing legislation to terminate the missions in Bosnia and Kosovo. More
generally, Congress should pass a joint resolution barring funding for out-of-
area NATO missions and affirming that the alliance's only legitimate
mission, as authorized in the North Atlantic Treaty, is to protect the
territories of member states. Finally, Congress ought to express clear
opposition to any further expansion of the alliance's membership.
The Need for a Broader Debate
Those measures, however, are only interim, damage-limitation steps.
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ment to NATO. That debate would end NATO supporters' habit of regard-ing
the preservation of the alliance as a goal in itself. The proper goal is
the protection of vital American security interests. NATO (or any other
institution) is merely a means to that end and ought to be retained only
if the benefits of preservation decisively outweigh the potential costs and
risks. It is not at all clear that the '' new NATO'' passes that test.
A comprehensive congressional debate on NATO's purpose might lead
to long-overdue changes in Washington's European policy. For example,
a continued U. S. troop presence in Europe is an issue that is separable
from U. S. membership in the alliance. When NATO was founded, Wash-ington
did not contemplate stationing U. S. forces on the Continent as part
of the U. S. commitment. Indeed, the Truman administration assured the
Senate that the United States would not provide a troop presence. The
administration later sent troops to Europe because of the tense global
environment caused by the Korean War, but even then assurances were
given that it was merely a temporary step until the West Europeans
achieved full recovery from the devastation of World War II.
If a U. S. troop presence was not deemed an indispensable corollary to
America's NATO membership in 1949— during one of the most dangerous
periods of the Cold War— it should certainly not be viewed as such in
the far more benign European security environment of the 21st century.
The 108th Congress should finally fulfill President Truman's promise and
bring home the troops '' temporarily'' deployed to Europe in 1951. That
step is even more urgent since the September 11, 2001, attacks. The United
States does not have the luxury of allowing military personnel to sit
uselessly in Western Europe when there is a war to be waged elsewhere
against terrorist adversaries.
Such a decision would also signal a willingness to examine the ultimate
foreign policy sacred cow: continued U. S. membership in NATO. Despite
the concerted efforts of U. S. and European leaders to create a new NATO
and make it relevant to the post– Cold War era, the alliance is intrinsically
a Cold War relic. It was designed to provide a U. S. security shield for a
demoralized, war-ravaged Western Europe facing an aggressively expan-sionist
totalitarian adversary. That situation bears no resemblance to the
current security environment. It was one thing to suggest that a weak
Western Europe could not defend itself against a military superpower. It
is something quite different to argue that a prosperous Western Europe
cannot be a strategic counterweight to a Russia shorn of its empire and
East European satellite buffer states or deal with the security problems
caused by ethnic fanatics in the Balkans.
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The U. S.-European Military Gap
Congress ought to view with skepticism the effort of NATO partisans
to make the alliance relevant to the war against terrorism. Even though
NATO invoked Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (which declares
that an attack on one member is an attack on all) in response to the events
of September 11, the alliance played no meaningful military role in the
U. S. campaign in Afghanistan. The assistance that NATO members have
provided to the United States against al-Qaeda has been bilateral and
largely nonmilitary. That type of assistance could be provided even if
NATO did not exist.
The lack of NATO's military relevance to the war against terrorism is
not surprising. There are many reasons for that lack of relevance, but an
especially important one is the growing gap in military capabilities between
the forces of the United States and those of other NATO members. That
gap first became evident in the 1991 Persian Gulf War when U. S. military
leaders discovered that the military units of even major NATO allies
such as Britain and France were not all that useful. The gap had grown
enormously by the time of the Kosovo war in 1999 when U. S. planes
flew the overwhelming majority of combat missions. In the period since
that conflict, even NATO secretary general George Robertson and other
staunch defenders of the alliance have warned that the gap in capabilities
has grown so large that, if it is not reversed, joint operations of U. S. forces
and those of other members of NATO will become difficult or even
impossible. Since military interoperability has long been one of the chief
selling points for retaining NATO, that is no small admission.
The gap is the result of the perennial underinvestment in defense by
the European members of the alliance. That underinvestment is made
possible because the Europeans know that they can continue to free ride
on the U. S. security guarantee through NATO. The result is that the forces
of the European members of NATO are not terribly useful for the war
against terrorism or any other large-scale, significant military operation.
They are adequate for peacekeeping missions in places such as the Balkans,
but that is about the extent of their current or prospective capabilities.
Only if the United States changes the incentive structure by ending the
security subsidy it provides through NATO is the European underinvest-ment
in defense likely to change.
An Alternative to NATO
Congress should consider whether it is time to insist that the Europeans
provide for their own defense and take responsibility for maintaining
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security and stability in their own region instead of clinging to the American
security blanket. At least one institutional mechanism, the European Secu-rity
and Defense Policy under the auspices of the European Union, has
the potential to be a successor to NATO. The nations of the European
Union collectively have a greater population than the United States as
well as a larger economy. All that has been lacking is the will to build a
credible military force and develop a coordinated EU foreign policy. Those
steps are more likely to be taken if the United States stops insisting on a
NATO-centric policy merely to preserve Washington's dominant position
in the transatlantic relationship.
The United States would have the option of establishing a limited
security relationship with the EU— as a hedge against developments in
Europe that might have a serious effect on important American interests.
Under such a system, however, Europeans would finally have primary
responsibility for the security of Europe, and America's risk exposure
would be appropriately limited.
Suggested Readings
Art, Robert J. '' Creating a Disaster: NATO's Open Door Policy. '' Political Science Quarterly 113, no. 3 (Fall 1998).
Carpenter, Ted Galen. Beyond NATO: Staying Out of Europe's Wars. Washington: Cato Institute, 1994.
Carpenter, Ted Galen, ed. NATO's Empty Victory: A Postmortem on the Balkan War. Washington: Cato Institute, 2000.
. NATO Enters the 21st Century. London: Frank Cass, 2001. Carpenter, Ted Galen, and Barbara Conry, eds. NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality.
Washington: Cato Institute, 1998. Danner, Mark. '' Marooned in the Cold War: America, the Alliance, and the Quest for
a Vanished World. '' World Policy Journal 14, no. 3 (Fall 1997). Layne, Christopher. '' Death Knell for NATO? The Bush Administration Confronts the
European Security and Defense Policy. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 394, April 4, 2001.
Mandelbaum, Michael. The Dawn of Peace in Europe. New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1996.
. '' NATO Expansion: A Bridge to the Nineteenth Century. '' Washington: Center for Political and Strategic Studies, June 1997.
Mearsheimer, John J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: W. W. Nor-ton, 2001.
Perlmutter, Amos, and Ted Galen Carpenter. '' NATO's Expensive Trip East. '' Foreign Affairs 77, no. 1 (January– February 1998).
Schake, Kori, Amaya Bloch-Laine´, and Charles Grant. '' Building a European Defense Capability. '' Survival 41, no. 1 (Spring 1999).
Yost, David S. '' The NATO Capabilities Gap and the European Union. '' Survival 42, no. 4 (Winter 2000– 01).
—Prepared by Ted Galen Carpenter
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Congress should
support the transfer of peacekeeping responsibility in Bosnia
and Kosovo to America's European allies; insist on the withdrawal of all U. S. ground troops from the
Balkans by 2004; wean the futile nation-building schemes in Bosnia and Kosovo
from American aid by reducing government funding to zero over the next few years;
oppose any new U. S. nation-building or peacekeeping mis-sions
in the Balkans, particularly in Macedonia; resist the urge to tell the Europeans, and the Balkan peoples
themselves, how to govern the region; avoid using (or threatening) trade sanctions to force Serbia and
Montenegro to accept Washington's views in the future; and encourage political and economic liberalization in the Bal-kan
States.
The Balkans have been a major focus of U. S. foreign policy since 1992.
In the last 10 years, the United States has spent billions of dollars and a
sizable diplomatic and military effort trying to establish peace and build
new nation-states in the region. However, in view of America's negligible
interests in the Balkans, the region's position on Washington's agenda
has been disproportionate to its importance.
Equally troubling, America's Balkan policy has largely been a disap-pointment.
Although an uneasy peace has been achieved, Washington's
wards in Bosnia and Kosovo are hardly closer to becoming lasting, stable
multiethnic democracies than they were when they were created. Indeed,
the region as a whole is still roiled by ethnic strife that threatens to unravel
what little has been accomplished and entangle the United States in further
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difficulties down the road. Unfortunately, at a time when America's focus
and resources are needed elsewhere, there appears to be no end in sight
to the quagmire our Balkan policy has become.
Considering American interests and the security environment since
September 11, 2001, the United States needs to fundamentally overhaul
its Balkan policy. This should include a removal of U. S. peacekeeping
troops, an end to Washington's nation-building activities, and a more
honest approach to the realities of the region. Fortunately, Washington
can safely rely on its rich and powerful European allies to pick up the
slack and maintain peace and stability as the United States withdraws
from the Balkans.
NATO Peacekeeping
The United States should end its participation in NATO's peacekeeping
missions in the Balkans. With few interests in the region, considerable
responsibilities around the globe, and threats to its homeland security, the
United States needs to stop using its military forces as well-armed babysit-ters.
Although the Bush administration made a campaign promise to
terminate this overlong intervention and several thousand troops have been
pulled out over the last two years, a sizable number of U. S. soldiers remain
in Bosnia and Kosovo. Yet President Bush continues to assert that the
U. S. military presence should not be '' indefinite. '' Congress should insist
that the administration translate its promises and rhetoric into action that
leads to a final exit of U. S. troops.
The United States can start the departure process by redefining the
mission. Because Europe has significantly greater interests in the region,
the seven-year-old peacekeeping mission in Bosnia and three-and-a-half-year-
old peacekeeping mission in Kosovo should both be reframed as
European operations. This will allow the 2,500 U. S. troops in Bosnia and
roughly 5,300 in Kosovo to depart at a sensible but certain pace.
The departure of American forces will have significant benefits for all
parties involved. For the United States, one important benefit would be
to distance itself from the region's ethnic disputes— troubles that are
unlikely to end any time soon and only stand to worsen in the decade
ahead. If these conflicts do escalate, the United States would be well
advised to stay out the next time and allow the Europeans to handle them.
Indeed, a more realistic and potentially longer-lasting approach would
allow the parties to the conflict to resolve it themselves. At most, the
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United States should provide diplomatic support for solutions that do not
require its military arm.
Another benefit of a U. S. pullout will be significant savings, allowing
resources currently allocated for peacekeeping to be used for more pressing
tasks at home and abroad. Not only will the United States save the nearly
$2 billion annually that now supports Balkan peacekeeping, but it will
free thousands of U. S. troops to focus on more important missions such
as the war on al-Qaeda. This will be especially welcome considering that
military leaders have complained about the lack of available troops.
The departure of U. S. troops will also stop the drastic readiness slide
suffered by units tasked with peacekeeping. No longer would units be so
strained by their peacekeeping duties that they are deemed practically
unfit for war fighting, as recently was the case with the Army's Third
Infantry Division.
The United States will benefit in less obvious ways as well. First,
American soldiers and statesmen will no longer be distracted by these
nonvital missions. Second, military morale and retention will likely
improve since peacekeeping missions have contributed to declines in both
since the Balkan intervention began. Third, less pressure will be placed
on National Guard and reserve units, freeing these citizen-soldiers for a
return to civilian life or for other, more pressing military needs.
However, the United States will not be the sole beneficiary of an end
to U. S. peacekeeping in Bosnia and Kosovo. Europe will reap rewards
as well. In carrying out the Balkan operations itself, Europe would take
a long overdue step in building a common security and defense identity,
one that does not depend psychologically and militarily on transatlantic
participation of the United States. That would not only make those with
more at stake in (and closest to) Bosnia and Kosovo responsible for
maintaining regional stability, it would also strengthen the credibility of
European security institutions and improve the quality, impact, and visibil-ity
of their operations. A peacekeeping mission will be an ideal way for
Europe to exercise its security muscles and for the European states to
reemerge as responsible security actors. As former U. S. ambassador to
NATO Robert E. Hunter noted, '' The Balkans is the place to test the
possibilities that now exist for a true European security and defense
identity. ''
Lest Congress fear that Europe cannot effectively replace the U. S.
presence in the Balkans, it should take heart from several recent positive
developments. Foremost among these are NATO efforts to facilitate the
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development of European security institutions. For example, the European
Security and Defense Policy and the Combined Joint Task Force have
been created to allow Europe to act without engaging the full apparatus
of the transatlantic alliance (i. e., the United States). The development of
these NATO-friendly institutions also negates the argument that an Ameri-can
pullback will adversely affect the credibility of the alliance.
Congress can derive further confidence from the Europeans' relatively
positive peacekeeping performances in their sectors of Bosnia and Kosovo.
Even more promising was their execution of Operation Alba in which
Italy, Greece, and others intervened militarily in Albania in 1997 in order
to restore order and deliver humanitarian assistance. Indeed, a European
takeover of the Balkan missions could help build a foundation for longer-term
benefits: the normalization of international politics in Eurasia and
the end of the U. S. burden of providing security for Europe. In short, an
end to the U. S. peacekeeping missions would be a positive step for both
the United States and Europe.
Bosnia
The 1995 Dayton Agreement ended more than three years of ethnic
war and called for the creation of a unitary, multiethnic Bosnian state.
Despite great efforts to build a stable, well-functioning, and democratic
nation-state comprising Bosnian Muslims, Croats, and Serbs, the interna-tional
community is scarcely closer to meeting that goal than it was at
the end of the war. Instead, nation building in Bosnia has primarily
squandered resources, created imperious international rulers, and served
as a bad example of democracy in action for the Balkan people. Indeed,
Bosnia is little more than a protectorate of the West that has become
dangerously dependent on the international community running the
country.
Despite billions of dollars in assistance, Bosnia remains an economic
basket case. Of course, nation builders will argue that the new country
has experienced positive growth. However, most of that so-called growth
reflects the influx of international aid, not an expanding national economy.
An official in the Office of the High Representative, the de facto interna-tional
ruler of Bosnia, even admitted: '' There's really no economic
growth.... There's no job creation. ''
The truth is, Bosnia is not improving economically. State-owned busi-nesses
are struggling to stay open or are dormant, while a majority of
Bosnians are out of work. Those who are working are dependents of the
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international organizations that employ them— a recipe unlikely to produce
long-term economic growth and stability. Fraud and corruption are also
rampant. Numerous other drags on economic growth exist, including
onerous taxes and regulations that stifle business activity and deter invest-ment.
The situation is such that the Organization for Security and Coopera-tion
in Europe's Robert Barry concluded, '' You've got to be crazy to
invest in this country where it is a given that if you obey the laws you're
going to lose money. ''
Unfortunately, there is little hope for change. Privatization moves at a
snail's pace, despite the pro-market rhetoric of eager Bosnian aid recipients.
Instead, the socialist economy of the past lives on and is staunchly defended
by those who benefit from it. Change is hindered by Bosnian officials
resistant to relinquishing the communist era's bureaucratic system of jobs
and privileges, and equally determined to avoid ceding control to their
ethnic rivals. This reticence is especially difficult to overcome since, in
most cases, the leaders of Bosnia's major state-owned enterprises are also
members of the local ruling political parties— themselves divided along
ethnic lines— who use these enterprises to further their financial and
political interests. Ironically, the international community in Bosnia pays
large amounts of rent to these state-owned businesses, thus effectively
funneling money into nationalist parties that are considered the principal
obstacles to peace. In short, despite Western efforts, Bosnia's economy
has not seen the radical overhaul it needs, and the outlook is bleak. A recent
economic study ranked Bosnia as one of the '' most unfree'' economies in
the world, not exactly an international success.
Bosnia's troubles are unfortunately not simply economic. The political
situation is unresolved and ripe for failure. The country is essentially
divided into three ethnic regions dominated by nationalist parties. The fall
2002 elections underlined this fact. Moreover, the hoped-for reintegration
of society has not occurred. Displaced persons have rationally not returned
to areas where they would be in the minority. The fact is, Bosnia's rival
ethnic groups do not want to live with each other— or fear that they cannot.
More troubling, and perhaps fatal to the nation builders' hopes, is that
the Dayton Agreement contains the seeds of Bosnia's self-destruction.
Essentially, this political framework creates incentives for group-oriented
behavior since it generates an internal security dilemma: any increase in
the power of one group is a potential threat to individuals belonging to
other groups. In such a situation, it is strategically rational for individuals
and groups to behave in ways that threaten the long-term viability of a
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multiethnic Bosnia. Although peacekeepers can prevent widespread kill-ings,
they can do little more than mitigate the effects of the deep-seated
ethnic animosity and suspicion that are rampant throughout Bosnia.
Another problematic feature of the current political arrangement is that
Western officials running the country are treating Bosnians to an ineffective
political education. The Office of the High Representative is giving the
Bosnians a good lesson in colonial rule rather than democracy. It regularly
flouts democratic norms, rules by decree, shows utter disrespect for the
electoral process, and violates any semblance of media freedom. Indeed,
former high representative Wolfgang Petritsch virtually imposed a new
constitution on Bosnia— one neither tenable nor endorsed by the country's
people. This same man recently bragged that he had '' powers that would
make a 19th century viceroy envious'' and '' did not hesitate to use my
authority to impose legislation and dismiss domestic officials. '' Rather
than helping the situation, autocratic Western nation builders are running
roughshod over Bosnians, imposing their social engineering projects on
people who are ignored if they complain. This effectively creates depen-dents
who will not be able to act on their own when given the chance
and sours them on what they are told is democratic rule. Thus, any
short-term gains and the appearance of progress are coming at a serious
future cost.
The United States has sunk billions of dollars in a country that seems
to have little hope of surviving on its own as presently structured. That
money has been put to ineffective and illiberal uses and subsidized the
institutional remnants of a defunct communist state. Congress should stop
funding this Western experiment in social engineering and neocolonialism.
Kosovo
In 1999, NATO defeated Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) in a
short air war that centered on the political situation and ethnic conflict in
Serbia's southern province of Kosovo. After that '' victory, '' the United
States joined a Western nation-building project in Kosovo fleshed out in
UN Security Council Resolution 1244. That resolution essentially commit-ted
the United States to an effort to develop democratic structures that
will '' ensure conditions for a peaceful and normal life for all inhabitants
of Kosovo'' and pave the way for a '' substantial autonomy. '' In other
words, the West was agreeing to create another Bosnia— a multiethnic
democracy comprising former combatants. This time, the constituent
groups were Kosovar Serbs and Kosovar Albanians, and somehow the
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province was expected to remain part of Serbia but enjoy significant
autonomy.
Clearly, the international community has had its hands full accomplish-ing
such a difficult task. Nearly 40,000 foreign troops, including 6,000
Americans, occupied Kosovo as part of the NATO-led Kosovo Force
(KFOR). Accompanying these troops under the UNInterim Administration
Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) were thousands of administrators and police
who were tasked with running the province (assisted by a small army of
aid workers sent by nongovernmental organizations).
Since the end of the war, Kosovo has become nothing less than a
Western protectorate. Of course, this does not seem to bother Balkan
nation builders. Carlos Westendorp, former high representative in Bosnia,
declared that '' a full international protectorate is required'' for Kosovo.
He deflected criticism by arguing, '' This is not the moment for post-colonial
sensitivities. '' Apparently it is not, at least among the UNMIKistas.
Spurred on by UN regulations giving it '' all legislative and executive
authority . . . including the administration of the judiciary, '' UNMIK (and
its top official, the Special Representative of the United Nations) has taken
responsibility for nearly every facet of life. It has overseen everything
from Kosovo's health care to garbage collection. It has also declared the
German mark the local currency; paid the wages of teachers, doctors, and
civil servants; and decided on matters as picayune as the cost of vending
licenses to sell ice cream on Kosovo's street corners. Few things have
been left to the Kosovars. The Special Representative's Office has even
moved to shape election outcomes and shutter independent media outlets
that publish controversial material and opinions. Fortunately, devolution
of some of these responsibilities is on the horizon, but the fact is, the
special representative has been a colonial autocrat in all but name.
Unfortunately, there is no apparent end in sight for this mission. After
years of peacekeeping and billions of dollars expended, the stated goals
of Resolution 1244 are barely closer to fulfillment than they were when
they were crafted. Kosovo is still rent by ethnic strife, and interethnic
violence remains an all-too-regular phenomenon. Indeed, most of Kosovo's
non-Albanian population has been driven out by Kosovar Albanians, fled
the province in fear, or settled in NATO-protected enclaves. In the summer
of 2001, Serbs were victimized by home bombings in northern Kosovo.
The reintegration of society necessary to meet the UN's goal of a multieth-nic
Kosovo has also failed to materialize. Only a few hundred of the more
than 200,000 non-Albanian residents of Kosovo driven out during and
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after the war have returned home. Furthermore, the Kosovo economy
remains a shambles, the province is awash in crime (including organized
crime revolving around drug and even human trafficking), corruption is
rampant, and minority rights are practically nonexistent. Michael Steiner,
the current special representative, admits that the international community's
mission will be a long one requiring significant commitments of arms and
other resources.
Yet even as this nation-building project continues to falter, a more
troubling problem is at the heart of the mission. To wit, a fatal and
fundamental difference exists between the purported goal of the interna-tional
community— an autonomous, multiethnic Kosovo within Serbia—
and the aspirations of the Kosovar Albanians, especially the former mem-bers
of the Kosovo Liberation Army. Moderates and extremists alike in this
community have not given up on their wartime goal of full independence.
Therefore, even though the international effort has provided some element
of peace, it is a false peace under the current arrangement. Today's Kosovo
is in a state of political limbo that serves only to perpetuate local fears.
This is particularly true for Kosovo's ethnic Serbs. It also energizes inde-pendence-
minded Kosovar Albanians who are working toward severing
the few remaining ties to Serbia. This means that Washington's attempt
to build a peaceful multiethnic democracy will certainly fail. But it could
be worse. Should Kosovar Albanian militants decide NATO forces are
in the way of their plans for an independent Kosovo, U. S. forces could
end up fighting their former de facto allies. Congress should, therefore,
immediately stop funding this expensive and futile mission.
Macedonia
Macedonia has been and continues to be plagued by the same problem
Serbia faced in Kosovo before 1999. In both situations, ethnic Albanian
militants committed terrorist acts and incited violence to further their
irredentist aims. In Serbia, the Kosovo Liberation Army played the West
like a fine instrument to advance its goal of a Greater Albania. Emboldened
by their success in Kosovo, Albanian irredentists have attempted to run
the same game plan in Macedonia. In response to the resulting violence,
the West was able to broker a deal between Albanian rebels and the
Macedonian government in 2001. However, that agreement largely served
to again reward the perpetrators of violence. NATO also sent several
thousand peacekeepers to Macedonia, though U. S. forces already there
have fortunately been restricted to support activities. Despite these efforts
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(or perhaps even because of them), the situation is likely to get worse.
Indeed, a recent U. S. State Department report notes that '' worsening
relations between ethnic Macedonians and Albanians calls into question
whether the framework agreement will be able to foster long-term coexis-tence.
'' Considering the difficulties and inherent flaws in its Kosovo
experience, the United States should avoid involvement in a Macedonian
ethnic quarrel frighteningly similar to the one that ultimately led to war
and a seemingly endless nation-building project in Kosovo.
Serbia and Montenegro
The two remaining republics of the former Yugoslavia have recently
agreed to remain together in a newly named federal state of Serbia and
Montenegro. This is a good sign for the region and for the post-Milosevic
democratic regime in Belgrade. Although many Montenegrans still harbor
a desire for independence, the new arrangement devolves significant
amounts of power to the two republics so that a destabilizing schism does
not appear on the horizon. However, if the peaceful reconciliation proves
only temporary, Congress should firmly object to any plans that will entail
a significant role for the United States. It should also insist that the
administration avoid giving Montenegro any security guarantees— explicit
or implicit. Such guarantees would be a sure recipe for abetting the types
of destabilizing forces that tore Kosovo apart.
Meanwhile, the United States should encourage trade liberalization and
privatization in Serbia and Montenegro. It should also avoid using trade
sanctions as a way to whip Belgrade into line on Bosnia and Kosovo or
to micromanage political developments inside the country. Such attempts
to dictate from afar will only undermine the state's new democratic rulers
and hurt the economic foundations of this struggling country. Should
Milosevic's cronies return to power in Serbia, Congress should remain
committed to trade with the republic. Trade barriers will only injure the
country's private sector and stunt an emerging middle class, thus hurting
those who would naturally form an opposition that supports democracy
and liberalization.
Future U. S. Policy
America's extensive involvement in the Balkans has been a near total
failure that needs to end. Congress should commence efforts to bring
home the remaining U. S. troops and stop its financial support for the
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international community's dubious nation-building efforts. However, this
does not mean that the United States should ignore the region.
The United States should certainly maintain an intelligence operation
in the area to provide early warning of any anti-American terrorist opera-tions
based there. Furthermore, a U. S. pullback does not rule out using
military force to strike and destroy any terrorist organizations that are
using the Balkans as platforms for attacks against U. S. interests.
The United States should play a role in pressing for further liberalization
in the region. It can also offer its good offices to help parties there
peacefully reconcile their differences. Indeed, without the necessity of
rhetorically supporting its wards and its intervention, the United States
would be freer to act as an honest broker in any negotiations. It would
also be better able to criticize any illiberal policies adopted by Balkan
regimes. The United States would also be well advised to immediately
begin educating the international community about the current underlying
conditions in these countries. This may awaken nation builders who try
to build their castles on shifting sands and head off any potential criticism
if the situation eventually gets worse under the Europeans.
Once it turns over Balkan policy to the European Union (and to the
Balkan peoples themselves), the United States should firmly avoid trying
to control the situation as back-seat drivers. That is true for both Congress
and the executive. Instead, the United States should allow the Europeans
to pursue their own agenda as long as those measures do not jeopardize
American security or economic interests. In other words, the Europeans
should be given a free hand, unfettered by American desires to micro-manage
the future of the region. Indeed, the United States should not
stand in the way if Europe somehow decides that the partition of Bosnia,
Kosovo, or Macedonia, or all three, is the best long-range solution. How-ever,
the Europeans should also fully realize that, no matter what course
they pursue, the United States will not bail them out militarily if the going
gets rough. In short, the watchword of American policy toward the Balkans
should be restraint.
Suggested Readings
Carpenter, Ted Galen. '' Waist Deep in the Balkans and Sinking: Washington Confronts the Crisis in Macedonia. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 397, April 30, 2001.
Carpenter, Ted Galen, ed. NATO's Empty Victory: A Postmortem on the Balkan War. Washington: Cato Institute, 2002.
Chandler, David. Bosnia: Faking Democracy after Dayton. 2d ed. London: Pluto
Press, 2000.
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Corwin, Phillip. Dubious Mandate: A Memoir of the UN in Bosnia, Summer 1995. Durham, N. C.: Duke University Press, 1999.
Dempsey, Gary T, ed. Exiting the Balkan Thicket. Washington: Cato Institute, 2002. Dempsey, Gary T., with Roger W. Fontaine. Fool's Errands: America's Recent Encoun-ters
with Nation Building. Washington: Cato Institute, 2001.
Judah, Tim. Kosovo: War and Revenge. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2000. Langewiesche, William. '' Peace Is Hell. '' Atlantic Monthly, October 2001.
Layne, Christopher. '' Blunder in the Balkans: The Clinton Administration's Bungled War against Serbia. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 345, May 20, 1999.
. '' Faulty Justifications and Ominous Prospects: NATO's 'Victory' in Kosovo. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 357, October 25, 1999.
Layne, Christopher, and Benjamin Schwarz. '' Dubious Anniversary: Kosovo One Year Later. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 373, June 10, 2000.
—Prepared by William Ruger
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53. The U. S. Alliance with Saudi Arabia
The U. S. Government should
forcefully press Riyadh to aid American efforts to investigate
terrorist activities and cut off private funding for terrorist groups, even at the cost of today's cozy relationship;
use visa and transportation rules to encourage release of cap-tive
American citizens by, for instance, denying U. S. visas to men who have abused their power under Saudi law to prevent
wives and children from leaving the country; put greater official distance between itself and the Saudi Ara-bian
regime, thereby reducing Washington's identification with a corrupt kleptocracy;
end training of the Saudi national guard, a force directed
at suppressing domestic unrest rather than guarding against external enemies;
withdraw U. S. military forces from Saudi Arabia; and
recognize that the feared Saudi '' oil weapon'' is a myth.
In early 2002 rumors circulated that Saudi Arabia was considering
asking the United States to withdraw its troops from the gulf kingdom.
Outraged denials arose in both Washington and Riyadh. But even before
the September 11, 2001, terrorist assaults, Saudi Arabia was among Wash-ington's
more dubious allies. Washington should take the initiative in
refashioning a relationship that has far more negatives than positives for
the United States. The House of Saud has long leaned toward the West.
King Abdul Al Aziz Al Saud, who fathered 44 sons, is the font of today's
royal family, including King Fahd. The latter suffered a series of strokes
beginning in 1995, however, and his half-brother Crown Prince Abdullah
largely runs the government.
Saudi Arabia would be unimportant but for the massive oil deposits
sitting beneath its seemingly endless deserts. There have been tensions
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with the West, especially during the oil boycott against the West in 1973
and 1974. However, most attention has focused on defending the Persian
Gulf region from other potential invaders.
To contain Saddam Hussein's Iraq, America augments its military units
in Turkey and carrier forces in the Persian Gulf with about 5,000 Air
Force personnel in Saudi Arabia as part of the Southern Watch command,
comprising aircraft ranging from F-15s and F-16s to C-130s and KC-135s.
Another 1,300 military personnel and civilian contractors have worked with
the Saudi national guard. No temporary response to Saddam's aggression,
America's presence has a '' permanent feel, '' as Howard Schneider of the
Washington Post put it.
Although the relationship between Riyadh and Washington is close, it
has rarely been easy. For American administrations that loudly promote
democracy in nations as diverse as China, Iraq, and Zimbabwe, the alliance
with Saudi Arabia has been a deep embarrassment.
Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy, an almost medieval theocracy,
with power concentrated in the hands of senior royalty and wealth spread
among some 7, 000 Al Saud princes (some analysts estimate that the
number of royals is as high as 30,000). Political opposition (even mild
criticism) is forbidden. In practice, there are few procedural protections
for anyone arrested or charged by the government; the semiautonomous
religious police, or Mutawaa'in, intimidate and detain citizens and foreign-ers
alike. The government may invade homes and violate privacy whenever
it chooses; travel is limited. Women are covered, cloistered, and confined,
much as they were in Afghanistan under the Taliban.
It is perhaps no surprise that such a regime has an unenviable reputation
for corruption. Most ugly, though, is the religious totalitarianism enforced
by Riyadh. Non-Muslim worship as well as proselytizing is prohibited
for citizens and foreigners alike. Conversion means apostasy, which is
punishable by death.
Moreover, up to 100 American women and children are essentially held
captive in Saudi Arabia, having been denied a husband's or father's
permission to travel. Some of the victims have been kidnapped despite
valid U. S. custody orders granted while both parents were residing in
America. Yet Washington's efforts to aid them have been sporadic at best,
dependent on the initiative of individual ambassadors, and ultimately
ineffective.
Such pervasive thuggish behavior alone is rarely enough to preclude
Washington's maintaining diplomatic relations, but it should discourage
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the United States from affirmatively embracing the Saudi regime, even
in the name of stability. Moreover, U. S. policies have identified Washing-ton
with the Saudi kleptocracy. Americans are now paying for that associa-tion,
which has made the United States a target for terrorists. Ending
America's support for the corrupt regime in Riyadh and expelling U. S.
forces from the gulf appear to be one of Osama bin Laden's main goals.
The Saudi ruling elite is also paying with increased domestic unrest for
its repression and links to Washington. Moreover, the long-term drop in
energy prices has caused economic pain in Saudi Arabia; unemployment
is now estimated at 15 percent overall and at 20 percent for those under
30. That has helped generate unrest, but the discontented feel helpless to
promote political change.
Soaring dissatisfaction with the regime due to slumping revenues and
a slowing economy has merged with criticism of America. Many Saudis
are angry at U. S. support for the House of Saud. Additional irritants are
Washington's support of Israel and attacks on Iraq, and more recently the
air strikes in Afghanistan. Admiration for Saudi terrorist bin Laden is
evident even among those who dislike his austere Islamic vision. Worries
Richard Murphy, a one-time U. S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia now with
the Council on Foreign Relations, '' After 11 years, we've worn out our
welcome on the popular level, though not with the leadership. ''
Enabling Terrorism
Criticism tends to be expressed through religious leaders. Radical free-lancers
have developed a widespread following: 15 of the 19 hijackers of
September 11 were from Saudi Arabia. One Saudi businessman told the
Wall Street Journal, '' Many young people are disgruntled and disenchanted
with our society's openness to the West and U. S. foreign policy. '' But
the Saudi leadership has proved wary of aiding the United States despite
direct attacks on Americans. The 1996 bomb attack on the Khobar Towers
barracks in Dharan killed 19 Americans and wounded another 372. How-ever,
U. S. efforts to investigate the bombing were hamstrung by the Saudis,
who refused to turn over relevant information and to extradite any of the
13 Saudis indicted by an American grand jury.
In the same year, the Saudis refused, despite U. S. urging, to take custody
of bin Laden from Sudan. In 1998 bin Laden and several other extremist
Muslim leaders issued a manifesto calling for a holy war to drive the
United States from Islamic lands. Even so, U. S. officials were unable '' to
get anything at all from King Fahd'' to challenge bin Laden's financial
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network, charged John O'Neill, a former FBI official involved with coun-terterrorism
who died in the attack on the World Trade Center, where he
was security chief.
Riyadh's reluctance to risk popular displeasure by identifying with
Washington continues even after the deaths of 3,000 Americans on Septem-ber
11, 2001. Despite public protestations that all is well between the two
governments, Bush administration officials privately acknowledge that
Saudi officials were not as cooperative as had been hoped. True, the
Saudis allowed Washington to use the operations center at Prince Sultan
Air Base, near Riyadh. Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia joined its neighbors
in attempting to keep its distance, ostentatiously announcing that no foreign
troops would use Saudi facilities to stage attacks.
Unfortunately, the refusal to aggressively defend cooperation with the
West encourages the growth of extremist sentiments. Still, the lack of a
public endorsement pales in comparison with Riyadh's support for the
very Islamic fundamentalism that threatens to consume the regime in
Riyadh as well as to murder more Americans in future terrorist attacks.
Riyadh's strategy is to buy off everyone. It long subsidized Arab govern-ments
and guerrilla movements at war with Israel, and it opposed the
1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel. The regime was, along with
Pakistan, the primary financial backer of the Taliban in Afghanistan, which
provided sanctuary for bin Laden and his training camps. It is widely
believed that Saudi businessmen have made contributions to bin Laden
in an attempt to purchase protection. There are serious charges of financial
support from some of the Saudi royal family for bin Laden's al-Qaeda
network.
The problem runs even deeper. The Saudi state, run by royals who
often flaunt their libertinism, enforces the extreme Wahhabi form of Islam
at home and subsidizes its practice abroad.
Wahhabism is thought to dominate as many as 80 percent of the mosques
in America. Within this sect, hostile to modernity and the West, political
extremism and support for terrorism have flourished in Saudi Arabia itself.
Moreover, the threat now reaches beyond the Middle East to Indonesia,
Malaysia, and even the Philippines.
The Oil Issue
By any normal assessment, Americans should care little if the House
of Saud fell, as have other illegitimate monarchies, such as Iran's Peacock
throne. Except for one thing: Saudi Arabia has oil. Washington frets about
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a fundamentalist revolution. Worries Saudi oil expert Nawaf Obaid, such
a government would be '' ten times more powerful [than] Iraq or Iran. ''
Contrary to the conventional wisdom, however, the Saudis' trump hand
is surprisingly weak. True, with 262 billion barrels of oil in proven reserves,
Saudi Arabia has about one-quarter of the world's resources and 8.7 times
America's supplies. Riyadh is not only the world's leading supplier, but
as a low-cost producer, it can easily augment its daily exports, which were
9.1 million barrels a day in 2000.
However, the reserves figure vastly overstates the importance of Middle
Eastern oil to the U. S. (and Western) economy. Saudi Arabia accounted
for about 10 percent of production in 2001. Were the Saudi regime to
fall, prices would rise substantially only if the conqueror, whether internal
or external, held the oil off the market. The result then would be significant
economic pain in the short term, though the Strategic Petroleum Reserve,
which the president has vowed to fill, would help moderate prices.
A policy of withholding oil would, however, defeat the very purpose
of conquest, even for a fundamentalist regime. After all, the Iranian revolu-tion
did not cause Iran to stop exporting oil; in fact, production increased
steadily in the 1990s. If a new Saudi regime did halt sales, the primary
beneficiaries would be other oil producers, who would likely increase
exports in response to the higher prices. A targeted boycott against only
the United States would be ineffective, since oil is a uniform product
available around the world. In fact, the embargo of 1973– 74 had little
impact on production; the global recession of 1975 caused a far more
noticeable drop.
A new government might decide to pump less oil in order to raise
prices. Such a strategy would require international cooperation, yet the
oil producers have long found it difficult to coordinate price hikes and
limit cheating on agreed-upon quotas. Even if effective, restricting sales
would have only a limited impact. A decade ago, when oil was selling
for about $20 a barrel, energy economist David R. Henderson, a professor
at the Naval Postgraduate School, figured that the worst case result of an
Iraqi seizure of the Saudi oil fields would be about a 50 percent price
increase, costing the U. S. economy about one-half of 1 percent of GDP.
The real price hike as a result of losing Saudi oil likely would be even
less today and would fall on an economy more than one-quarter larger.
In any case, the economic impact would decline over time.
Countries such as Kuwait, Iran, Nigeria, Russia, and the United Arab
Emirates have the ability to pump significantly more oil. A resolution of
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the Iraq issue would bring substantial new supplies online; Baghdad
pumped 2.2 million barrels a day in 1990, before becoming subject to
sanctions after the end of the Gulf War. As economist Susan Lee puts it,
should Riyadh turn off the pumps, '' the U. S. would find itself plenty of
new best friends. ''
Sharply higher prices would bring forth new energy supplies elsewhere.
Total proven world oil reserves were 660 billion barrels in 1980, 1,009
billion in 1990, and 1,046 billion at the end of 2000. Yet in the last decade
alone the world's people consumed 250 billion barrels of oil. How could
that be? A combination of new discoveries and technological advances
increased the amount of economically recoverable oil. Reserves rose even
as oil prices dropped.
America is dotted with high-cost wells that could be unplugged. The
nation's outer continental shelf alone is thought to contain more than our
current proven reserves. Barely 15,000 acres of the 19.6 million acre
Arctic National Wildlife Reserve could contain a similar amount of oil
(as well as supplies of natural gas).
Moreover, energy companies are looking for new oil deposits around
the world, including the Caspian Basin, Russia, and West Africa. Estimates
of as yet undiscovered potentially recoverable oil range from 1 trillion to
6 trillion barrels. Higher prices would further stimulate exploration, as
well as production of alternative fuels and conservation, reducing oil
consumption. In short, an unfriendly Saudi Arabia might hurt America's
pocketbook; it would not threaten America's survival. Although in an
unlikely worst case, the loss of most Persian Gulf oil, the cost hike might
be significant, that risk must be balanced against the annual expense of
maintaining forces directed at protecting Saudi oil, estimated at $50 billion
by Georgetown University's Earl Ravenal. On top come the costs of
fighting terrorism, inflamed by America's presence in Saudi Arabia.
To mention Saudi Arabia's shortcomings or suggest that the regime's
survival is not vital to America makes policymakers in Washington and
Riyadh nervous. The House of Saud doesn't take criticism well.
Divorcing Saudi Arabia
The United States should reassess the current Washington-Riyadh axis.
The American commitment to the Saudi royal family is a moral blemish
and a practical danger. It has already drawn the United States into one
conventional war and has helped to make Americans targets for terrorism,
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which generated far more casualties in one day than did the Gulf War,
the Kosovo conflict, and the Afghanistan campaign (so far) combined.
Stability in the Persian Gulf is of value, but it is not even clear that
America's presence increases Saudi stability. Certainly the royal family
will do whatever it takes to maintain its power and privileges against
internal opposition. If its ruthlessness is insufficient, the American presence
is not likely to help, unless the United States is prepared to commit ground
forces— in addition to those presently on station— to prop up the monarchy,
creating the prospect of a lengthy occupation and increased terrorist
activity.
Of greater concern is the possibility of renewed external aggression,
most obviously by Iraq, though that country remains in greatly weakened
condition. But even before September 11 the Gulf States were working
to resolve conflicts and improve their ability to defend themselves without
Washington's help. The prospect of American disengagement would, like
the prospect of a hanging, help greatly concentrate the mind. Such a
prospect would also increase pressure on the Gulf States to forge defensive
relationships with surrounding powers, most notably Iran, Syria, and Tur-key,
and to inaugurate serious political reform to generate a popular
willingness to defend the incumbent regimes.
If the Gulf States fail to act, however, the United States shouldn't worry
unduly about the future of the Saudi regime. Expanding America's military,
going to war, and risking civilian casualties as a result of more terrorism
in order to defend Riyadh costs far more than stability in the Persian Gulf
is worth. Should the House of Saud fall, or be overrun, Washington would
finally be relieved of the moral deadweight of defending that regime. And
consumers would almost certainly continue to purchase oil, if not directly
from a hostile Saudi regime, then from other producers in a marketplace
that would remain global. Americans would adjust to any higher prices
by finding new supplies, developing alternative energy forms, and reducing
consumption.
There were many causes of September 11. Some, such as America's
status as a free society whose influence permeates the globe, reflect the
country's very being and cannot and should not be changed. But some
U. S. actions would be of dubious benefit even if they did not put Americans
at risk. Washington's willingness to make common cause with the morally
decrepit, theocratic monarchy in Riyadh is an example. The United States
must not retreat from the world, but it should stop intervening militarily
and supporting illegitimate and unpopular regimes where its vital interests
are not involved— as in Saudi Arabia.
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Suggested Readings
Aburish, K. Said. The Rise, Corruption and Coming Fall of the House of Saud. New York: St. Martins, 1996.
Adelman, M. A. The Genie Out of the Bottle: World Oil since 1970. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1996.
Amnesty International. '' Saudi Arabia: A Secret State of Suffering, '' March 27, 2001, www. amnesty. org.
Amnesty International. '' Saudi Arabia. '' Report 2001, December 2000, www. amnesty. org.
Bandow, Doug. '' Befriending Saudi Princes: A High Price for a Dubious Alliance. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 428, March 20, 2002.
Bohi, Douglas, and Michael Toman. The Economics of Energy. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996.
Bradley, Robert. The Mirage of Oil Protection. Lanham, Md.: University Press of America, 1989.
Carpenter, Ted Galen. '' Postwar Strategy: An Alternative View. '' Joint Force Quarterly, no. 27 (Winter 2000– 01).
Conry, Barbara. '' America's Misguided Policy of Dual Containment in the Persian Gulf. '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 33, November 10, 1994.
Fandy, Mamoun. Saudi Arabia and the Politics of Dissent. New York: St. Martins, 2001. Hadar, Leon. Quagmire: America in the Middle East. Washington: Cato Institute, 1992.
Hersh, Seymour. '' King's Ransom: How Vulnerable Are the Saudi Royals? '' New Yorker, October 22, 2001.
Lee, Susan. '' We Can Live without Saudi Oil. '' Wall Street Journal, November 13, 2001. Richman, Sheldon. ''' Ancient History': U. S. Conduct in the Middle East since World
War II and the Folly of Intervention. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 159, August 16, 1991.
—Prepared by Doug Bandow
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54. East Asian Defense Commitments
The U. S. government should
withdraw American military forces from South Korea over the
next two years and terminate the mutual defense treaty at the end of that period;
begin a four-year phased pullout of American troops from
Japan, beginning with forces on Okinawa; replace the bilateral U. S.-Japanese defense treaty with an
agreement that allows emergency base and port access and maintains joint military exercises and intelligence cooperation;
drop proposals for enhanced defense ties with Singapore,
eliminate the AUSMIN agreement with Australia, and make clear to the Philippine government and people that the Visiting
Forces Agreement and anti-terrorist assistance do not commit the United States to military action on behalf of the Philippines,
especially in any territorial disagreement involving the South China Sea;
promote regional security cooperation through the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other appropriate institutions;
expand economic and limited security ties with China while
pressing Beijing to accelerate democratic, human rights, and market reforms and to resolve international disputes peace-fully;
and drop Washington's implicit defense guarantee to Taiwan but
sell Taipei any weapons it deems necessary for its defense.
After the end of World War II the United States established an extensive
forward military presence and fought two wars in East Asia as part of its
strategy to contain communism. The Cold War ended a decade ago,
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but America's defense posture has changed little. The administration is
committed to keeping at least 100,000 military personnel in East Asia
and the western Pacific, apparently forever. The Pentagon's infamous
1995 assessment of security policy in East Asia (the so-called Nye Report)
made the astonishing assertion that '' the end of the Cold War has not
diminished'' the importance of any of America's regional security
commitments.
Indeed, Washington has been increasing U. S. military ties, approving
a new security treaty with the Philippines and involving special forces in
Manila's fight against Abu Sayyaf guerrillas, for instance, and offering
an implicit defense guarantee to Taiwan against China. Rather than expand
America's military presence in East Asia at a time when credible security
threats against the United States are diminishing, Congress should use its
budgetary and legislative authority to initiate a phased withdrawal of
American forces from South Korea and Japan and prepare to center
Washington's reduced military presence in the central Pacific rather than
East Asia.
Changed Threat Environment
American policy in the Far East has succeeded. For five decades Wash-ington
provided a defense shield behind which noncommunist governments
throughout East Asia were able to grow economically (despite their recent
setbacks) and democratically. Japan is the world's second-ranked economic
power; Taiwan's dramatic jump from poverty to prosperity forced the
leaders of the communist mainland to undertake fundamental economic
reforms. South Korea now outstrips North Korea by virtually every mea-sure
of national power. After years of failure, the Philippines seems to
be on the path of prosperity, while countries like Thailand have grown
dramatically and will eventually recover from their temporary economic
travails.
Serious threats to America's allies and interests have essentially disap-peared.
There is no more Soviet Union; a much weaker Russia has neither
the capability nor the will for Asian adventurism.
Elsewhere real, tough-minded communism has dissolved into a cynical
excuse for incumbent officeholders to maintain power. More than a decade
after the Tiananmen Square massacre, China is combining support for
greater economic liberty with respect for greater individual autonomy. So
far Beijing's military renewal has been modest, and China has been
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assertive rather than aggressive, though its saber rattling at Taiwan remains
of concern.
Southeast Asia remains roiled by economic and political instability, but
such problems threaten no one outside the immediate region. Only North
Korea remains a potential threat, but it is no replacement for the Soviet
Union. Pyongyang is bankrupt and starving, essentially friendless, and,
despite its willingness to wave the threat of an atomic bomb to gain
respect, will only fall further behind the South. Moreover, sporadically
warmer relations between the two Koreas after the summit between the
South's Kim Dae Jung and the North's Jim Jong Il offer the hope, though
obviously not the guarantee, of growing de´tente between the two states.
Some analysts privately, and a few publicly, say that Japan poses a
potential threat to regional peace. However, Tokyo has gained all of the
influence and wealth through peace that it had hoped to attain through
war and the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere in the 1930s.
Moreover, the lesson of World War II remains vivid to most Japanese:
in recent years the nation has been convulsed by political debates over such
modest actions as sending medical personnel to the Gulf War, providing
peacekeeping troops to the UN operation in Cambodia, and authorizing
military participation in civilian rescues.
Even mainstream politicians committed to a somewhat more assertive
posture— which has become increasingly respectable— have routinely sac-rificed
military spending to budget concerns. The Koizumi government
has moved to modestly expand Tokyo's defense responsibilities, but they
remain far below both Japan's economic resources and its strategic
interests.
Rethinking American Strategy
So far neither the Bush administration nor Congress seems to have
noticed the many dramatic changes. Indeed, the Bush administration's
proposed $46 billion increase in military spending for 2003 is more than
any other country spends on defense. U. S. taxpayers spent roughly $13
trillion (in current dollars) and sacrificed 92, 000 lives to win the Cold
War. With the dramatic diminution of security threats and the equally
dramatic growth of allied capabilities, the American people should no
longer be expected to surrender more dollars and risk more lives to police
East Asia for as long as friendly states believe it to be convenient. However
much it might be in the interest of other nations for Washington to defend
them— and what country would not naturally desire that the world's
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remaining superpower subsidize its defense?— it is not in America's inter-est
to do so.
Unless the administration acts, Congress should take the lead in adjusting
U. S. overseas deployments. Legislators should reduce the defense budget
as well as overall force levels and foreign deployments; Washington should
develop a comprehensive plan for the phased withdrawal of all forces
currently stationed in East Asia and the termination of U. S. defense guaran-tees
to allied nations.
The starting point for a new East Asian strategy is disengagement from
the Korean peninsula, the international flashpoint that could most easily
involve the United States in war. Although North Korea remains unpredict-able
and potentially dangerous, the 2000 summit and intermittent diplo-matic
steps since then suggest that Pyongyang has decided on a more
pacific course, probably out of economic desperation. In any case, the
South should be able to defend itself. It now possesses twice the population
of, around 40 times the gross domestic product of, and a vast technological
lead over the North. Especially after having rebounded from the Asian
economic crisis the South is well able to spend whatever is necessary to
make up for the withdrawal of 37,000 American troops. The North could
then choose to engage in meaningful arms control or lose an inter-Korean
arms race.
The potential for a North Korean nuclear bomb is unnerving. Pyong-yang's
recent admission that it has covertly pursued a uranium enrichment
program has significantly raised tensions. That program is a violation of
the commitments North Korea made in the 1994 framework agreement.
Washington should work with China, Japan, and Russia to get North
Korea to end its violation. More generally, the United States should work
to reduce tensions on the peninsula. Washington should allow Seoul to
take the lead in dealing with the North, supporting rather than undercut-ting
South Korean efforts to draw the DPRK into a more responsible
international role. At the same time, Washington should not only lift trade
sanctions against the North but also normalize diplomatic relations—
modest concessions that would offer the North ongoing benefits in return
for maintaining a peaceful course.
Although we should remain cautious about any promises by Pyongyang,
engagement offers greater prospects of success than does plunging the
peninsula into a new cold, or possibly hot, war. There are no good options
if Pyongyang persists in attempting to develop an atomic bomb, and a
continued American conventional military presence is certainly not one.
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U. S. ground forces in the South would become nuclear hostages, enhancing
the North's leverage over America.
Time for a Setting Sun
Washington should follow a similar strategy in Japan, which no longer
faces a serious threat. Whatever dangers to Japan remain or might arise
in the future, from, say, an aggressive China, could be met by a modest
Japanese military buildup. Of course, many of Japan's neighbors have
long viewed Washington's presence more as an occupation force to contain
Tokyo than as a force to contain Moscow. But the Japanese do not possess
a double dose of original sin; their nation, along with the rest of the world,
has changed dramatically over the last half century. The Japanese people
have neither the desire to start another conflict nor the incentive to do so,
having come to economically dominate East Asia peacefully.
Moreover, Tokyo is unlikely to accept a permanent foreign watchdog,
and tensions will grow as the lack of other missions for the U. S. forces
becomes increasingly obvious. Popular anger is already evident in Oki-nawa,
where American military facilities occupy one-fifth of the island's
landmass. Washington should develop a six-year program for the with-drawal
of all U. S. forces from Japan, starting with those in Okinawa. At
the end of that period Washington and Tokyo should replace their mutual
defense treaty with a more limited agreement providing for emergency
base and port access, joint military exercises, and intelligence sharing.
The United States need not expand base access elsewhere in the region.
Washington should drop proposals to increase defense cooperation with
Singapore and tightly circumscribe the scope of its Visiting Forces Agree-ment
with the Philippines, which was promoted by former president Joseph
Estrada and other Filipino supporters as a mechanism for drawing the
United States into any confrontation with China. The United States needs
also to limit any future military training missions, sharply insulating Ameri-can
forces from involvement in domestic conflicts, such as that involving
the Abu Sayyaf, essentially a gang of bandits. The United States has
suffered no damage attributable to the closing of its bases in the Philippines,
which had become expensive anachronisms, in 1992. Instead of upgrading
U. S. military ties, Washington should be transferring security responsibili-ties
to its allies and friends.
Even less relevant is the Australia– New Zealand– United States
(ANZUS) accord, which went into deep-freeze in 1984 after New Zealand
blocked port access by nuclear-armed and nuclear-powered American
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ships, and the annual Australia– United States Ministerial Consultations
(AUSMIN). ANZUS, created in the aftermath of World War II, was
directed less at containing the Soviet Union, which had no military presence
in the South Pacific, than at preventing a new round of Japanese aggression.
But since Tokyo had been decisively defeated and completely disarmed,
later to be fully integrated into the Western alliance, ANZUS was outmoded
the day it was signed.
Which leaves AUSMIN. But Australia faces no meaningful threats to
its security. An attack by a serious military power— China, India, Viet-nam—
is a paranoid fantasy. An Indonesian implosion might flood Austra-lia
with refugees, but not hostile troops. Anyway, Australia, blessed with
splendid isolation and economic prosperity, can easily provide whatever
forces it deems necessary to defend itself.
Washington should simply discard AUSMIN. Australia and America
should maintain mutually beneficial military cooperation, such as intelli-gence
sharing and emergency port access, and ink a free-trade agreement.
At the same time, Canberra should enhance its own military role in
the region.
Regional Security Cooperation
Indeed, the United States should encourage expanded regional security
discussions. Through either ASEAN or another organization, smaller coun-tries
throughout East Asia should develop a cooperative defense relation-ship
with Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and especially Japan.
Fear of the latter ignores five decades of dramatic changes. Tokyo could
do much to improve regional security. A measured military buildup,
focused on defensive weapons and conducted in consultation with Japan's
neighbors, would help prevent the creation of a dangerous vacuum follow-ing
the departure of American forces, as feared by proponents of continuing
U. S. dominance. Washington's position should be that of a distant balancer,
leaving its friends to handle their own affairs but poised to act if a
hegemonic threat arises that allied states cannot contain.
The United States could aid in the creation of a more effective regional
security framework by encouraging the peaceful resolution of various
boundary and territorial disputes. None presently seems likely to lead to
war, but all impede better bilateral and multilateral cooperation. To help
dissipate international tensions, Washington should offer its good offices
to help mediate the Japanese– South Korean squabble over the Takeshima/
Tokdu islands, the Japanese-Russian quarrel over the '' northern territories''
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(Sakhalin island), and the multifaceted dispute involving China and several
other countries that claim the Paracel and Spratly islands. Most important,
the United States should make clear that resolution of those (and other
similar) controversies is up to the interested parties, not America. Such a
'' tough love'' policy forced Australia to assume the lead role in establishing
a UN peacekeeping force in East Timor in the aftermath of that territory's
messy divorce from Indonesia.
The end of Cold War rivalry between the United States and the Soviet
Union allows Washington to take a more balanced position vis-a `-vis the
People's Republic of China (PRC). Washington should continue to pro-mote
good political relations, expand the military dialogue, and encourage
additional economic reform.
However, the United States need not fear bruising the PRC's sensitivities
when discussing China's foreign arms sales, human rights abuses,
attempted bullying of Taiwan, and interference with America's internal
affairs by seeking to block even private visits to the United States by
Taiwanese officials. America should speak frankly on those issues, though
Congress should resist pressure to limit trade with and investment in
China. While nothing is inevitable, extensive economic ties offer what is
probably the most powerful tool for weakening central communist control
in the PRC.
Congress also needs to take the lead in repairing flawed administration
policy toward the Republic of China (ROC). Relocated to Taiwan after
the communist victory on the mainland in 1949, the ROC still claimed
to be the legitimate government of all China until the late 1980s. Seven
years after Richard Nixon made his historic trip to the PRC in 1972, the
United States dropped diplomatic recognition of the ROC. Many other
nations followed suit. Since then Taiwan has existed uneasily at the periph-ery
of global politics— an economic powerhouse but a diplomatic midget.
The ROC's behaving increasingly like a sovereign state caused the
PRC to rattle its sabers— or, more accurately, test its missiles— in early
1996. Beijing's threats led Washington to respond with a warning of
'' grave consequences, '' meaning military intervention, should hostilities
erupt. The election in March 2000 of Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic
Progressive Party, which has long championed Taiwanese independence,
further increased tensions across the Taiwan Strait.
The United States does not have sufficient interests at stake to risk
war with nuclear-armed China over Taiwan. However, Washington, after
making clear that it believes the status of Taiwan, whether reunified with
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the mainland or independent, is up to the people of Taiwan to decide,
should sell the ROC whatever weapons, such as attack submarines, Taipei
desires to purchase for its own defense.
Conclusion
Asia, particularly East Asia, is likely to grow more important to the
United States in coming years. That makes it essential that Washington
simultaneously reduce the military burden on the American economy and
force its trading competitors to bear the full cost of their own defense.
Otherwise, U. S. firms will be less able to take advantage of expanding
regional economic opportunities. More important, the United States will
be more secure if friendly powers in the region, rather than relying on
America, are able and willing to contain nearby conflicts.
Jettisoning antiquated alliances and commitments and reducing a bloated
force structure does not mean the United States would no longer be an
Asian-Pacific power. After bringing its forces home from South Korea
and Japan, America should center a reduced defense presence around
Wake Island, Guam, and Hawaii. The United States would remain the
globe's strongest military power, with the ability to intervene throughout
East Asia if necessary. However, American policy would be dictated by
the interests of the American people, not those of the populous and
prosperous security dependents that Washington has accumulated through-out
the region.
Suggested Readings
Bandow, Doug. '' America's Obsolete Korean Commitment. '' Orbis (Fall 1998): 605– 17. . '' Free Rider: South Korea's Dual Dependence on America. '' Cato Institute
Policy Analysis no. 308, May 19, 1998. . '' Korean De´tente: A Threat to Washington's Anachronistic Military Presence? ''
Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 59, August 17, 2000. . '' Okinawa: Liberating Washington's East Asian Military Colony. '' Cato Insti-tute
Policy Analysis no. 314, September 1, 1998. . '' Old Wine in New Bottles: The Pentagon's East Asian Security Report. '' Cato
Institute Policy Analysis no. 344, May 18, 1999. . Tripwire: Korea and U. S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World. Washington:
Cato Institute, 1996. Carpenter, Ted Galen. '' Going Too Far: Bush's Pledge to Defend Taiwan. '' Cato Institute
Foreign Policy Briefing no. 66, May 30, 2001. . '' Let Taiwan Defend Itself. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 313, August
24, 1998. . '' Managing a Great Power Relationship: The United States, China and East
Asian Security. '' Journal of Strategic Studies 21, no. 1 (March 1998).
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. '' Washington's Smothering Strategy: American Interests in East Asia. '' World Policy Journal 14, no. 4 (Winter 1997– 98).
Harrison, Selig S. Korean Endgame: A Strategy for Reunification and U. S. Disengage-ment. Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 2002.
Johnson, Chalmers, and E. B. Keehn. '' The Pentagon's Ossified Strategy. '' Foreign Affairs 74, no. 4 (July– August 1995).
Layne, Christopher. '' Less Is More: Minimal Realism in East Asia. '' National Journal 43 (Spring 1996).
Olsen, Edward A. '' A Northeast Asian Peace Dividend. '' Strategic Review (Summer 1998).
. U. S. National Defense for the Twenty-First Century: The Grand Exit Strategy. London: Frank Cass, 2002.
Zich, Arthur. '' Okinawa, Seoul: Are the Bases Needed? '' Impact 12 (March 1997).
—Prepared by Doug Bandow
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55. Policy toward India and Pakistan
The U. S. government should
focus on democratic India as a leading diplomatic and eco-nomic
partner of the United States in South Asia and as a strategic counterbalance to China,
reassess economic and military ties with Pakistan as part of a
policy of U. S. '' constructive disengagement'' from that unstable military dictatorship,
reject plans to establish a long-term military presence in
Pakistan, treat India as a central player in the U. S.-led campaign against
terrorism and the radical Islamic forces in South Asia, refrain from pressing India not to use its military force against
terrorism emanating from Pakistan, and resist calls for an activist U. S. diplomatic role in mediating the
dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.
The easing in June 2002 of the tensions between India and Pakistan,
South Asia's two nuclear-armed countries, was portrayed as a major
success for U. S. diplomacy. According to the State Department's spin,
Deputy Secretary Richard Armitage helped to prevent an Indo-Pakistani
war, including the possible use of nuclear arms, after winning a pledge
from President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan to halt terrorism in the
disputed state of Kashmir. In response, New Delhi permitted Pakistani
commercial aircraft to again use Indian airspace and withdrew its naval
forces from the Arabian Sea.
Building on this modest reduction in regional tension, Secretary of
State Colin Powell visited South Asia in July 2002 and described both
governments as America's '' allies'' in the war on terrorism, projecting
an even-handed U. S. diplomatic approach. Yet other statements by Powell
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seemed to reflect a vague diplomatic tilt toward Pakistan. He accepted
the Pakistani position that the infiltration of Muslim terrorists fromPakistan
into Indian-controlled Kashmir had declined, despite the skepticism
expressed by Indian officials. Moreover, by proposing to place the issue of
Kashmir on '' the international agenda, '' Powell was siding with Pakistan,
which wants Washington to play a more active role in future negotiations
aimed at resolving that dispute. India has supported the idea of bilateral
Indo-Pakistani talks about Kashmir but refuses to hold them until there
is clear evidence that Islamabad has put an end to its sponsorship of
terrorism in Kashmir.
It's not surprising, therefore, that New Delhi regards the American view
articulated by Powell as running contrary to India's national interests as
well as reflecting a distorted analysis of the current Indo-Pakistani tensions
and the balance of power in South Asia. What the Bush administration
has done through its attempt at mediation has been to help a weak Pakistan
to strengthen its diplomatic hand in the confrontation with a more militarily
powerful India. Musharraf, like Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev during
the 1962 Cuban missile crisis with the United States, recognized that the
conventional and nuclear military balance of power favored the other side.
And, like Khrushchev, he had no choice but to submit to the ultimatum
imposed on him and bring an end to the terrorist infiltration into Indian-held
Kashmir (in the same way that Khrushchev had to withdraw the
nuclear missiles from Cuba).
The Bush administration's diplomacy involved more than just helping
Musharraf save face. It helped reduce the pressure on the Pakistani leader
by hailing his public commitments to prevent terrorists from slipping into
India. But Musharraf's anti-terrorist measures proved to be temporary,
enabling him to preserve U. S. support without actually ending the backing
for Muslim militants in Kashmir. Pakistan continues to tolerate the presence
of terrorist camps on its side of the line of control in Kashmir, allowing
the anti-Indian militant groups to maintain their communication networks
and logistical backup in Pakistan. And while the infiltration of terrorists
did slow initially after Musharraf's pledges were given to Washington, it
has resumed at a level almost as high as before June 2002.
Equally important, the Indians resent what they consider the double
standard that Washington applies in its war on terrorism in South Asia
and the Middle East. India's position on talks with Pakistan has not been
very different from that of the Israeli government, which has refused to
restart negotiations with the Palestinian Authority until the latter takes
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concrete steps to end terrorism. The Bush administration has regarded
Israel as a partner in the war on terrorism, accused the PA of supporting
anti-Israeli terrorism, and refrained from treating those two entities even-handedly.
Indeed, unlike in the case of India and Pakistan, Washington
has not only expressed total support for Israel's preconditions for talks
with the PA but has also called for the removal from power of PA president
Yasser Arafat. President Bush, who has refused to meet with Arafat, has
also linked any U. S. support for the Palestinians to their adoption of an
ambitious agenda of political and economic reform. But Musharraf, a
dictator whose military coup brought an end to Pakistan's democratic
political system and whose main base of power is the political axis between
Pakistan's leading anti-democratic forces (the military and the religious
establishments), was invited to the White House and was showered
with military and economic assistance. Indian leaders have noticed that
inconsistency.
Pakistan under Musharraf has had even more ties with terrorism and
anti-American groups and policies than the PA has had under Arafat. In
fact, when President Bush declared that the next phase of the anti-terrorism
campaign would be aimed at pressing the members of the so-called axis
of evil not to develop chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons and
stressed that the war against terrorism would be grounded in a set of
universal values, including the rule of law, religious freedom, and respect
for women, he could legitimately have included Pakistan in that axis.
After all, Pakistan's leaders have maintained close ties to radical Muslim
terrorist groups and have pursued successful efforts to acquire weapons
of mass destruction (WMD). And they have either supported or tolerated
policies with clear anti-Western and pro-militant Islamic orientations that
are the antithesis of the universal values that the Bush administration is
supposedly promoting.
Instead of being placed on President Bush's list of '' evil'' states, or
at least being condemned and isolated diplomatically like Arafat's PA,
Musharraf's Pakistan is now topping America's '' A List'' of the anti-terrorism
coalition. Ironically, the September 11, 2001, attacks on New
York and Washington and the ensuing U. S.-led war on terrorism have
given Musharraf an opportunity to improve the relationship between Wash-ington
and Islamabad. That relationship had experienced a steep decline
in the 1990s, as the end of both the Cold War and the common struggle
against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan eroded the perception of
shared strategic interests.
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But since September 11, General Musharraf, whose regime had been
the main source of diplomatic and military support for the terrorist Taliban
in neighboring Afghanistan, has portrayed his regime as an ally of Wash-ington
in its counterterrorism campaign. Despite his record— heading a
military clique that assisted radical Islamic terrorist groups in Afghanistan
and Kashmir, pressing for a war with India, advancing Pakistan's nuclear
weapons program, presiding over a corrupt and mismanaged economy—
Musharraf is being hailed by the Bush administration as a '' courageous''
and '' visionary'' leader who is ready to reorient his country toward a pro-American
position and adopt major political and economic reforms. In
exchange for his belated support, Musharraf has been rewarded with U. S.
diplomatic backing and substantial economic aid.
There is no doubt that Musharraf's decision to join the U. S. war on
terrorism did not reflect a structural transformation in Pakistan's policy.
It was a result of tactical considerations aimed at limiting the losses that
Islamabad would suffer because of the collapse of the friendly Taliban
regime in Kabul. Rejecting cooperation with Washington would have
provoked American wrath and placed at risk Pakistan's strategic and
economic interests in South Asia. But while some cooperation between
the United States and Pakistan is necessary to wage the war against
terrorism, it must not evolve into a new long-term strategic alliance.
Washington should view Pakistan, with its dictatorship, failed economy,
and insecure nuclear arsenal, as a reluctant supporter of U. S. goals at best
and as a potential long-term problem at worst. If anything, the Bush
administration's concern with nuclear proliferation and with the possible
transfer of WMD to terrorist groups should make Pakistan— a nuclear
military power whose military leaders and scientists are committed to the
notion of an '' Islamic Bomb'' and have maintained ties to the international
network of radical Islamic groups, including al-Qaeda— a focus of U. S.
anti-proliferation and anti-terrorism policies.
Indeed, changing international realities and developments in Asia pro-vide
the Bush administration and Congress with an opportunity to consider
'' constructive disengagement'' from Pakistan. That nation has little strate-gic
value to Washington over the long term. Indeed, it is likely to become
more of a burden than an asset as far as long-term U. S. interests and
values are concerned. Hence, U. S. policymakers and lawmakers should
reject the idea of establishing permanent military bases in the hostile
political environment of Pakistan. They should also recognize that any
effort to prop up the Pakistani military involves long-term risks, including
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the possibility that the powerful military machine of Pakistan will fall one
day into the hands of a radical Islamic regime.
Conversely, Washington should recognize that Westernized and secular
India is a more reliable and important partner than Pakistan in the war
on terrorism. Moreover, India, some seven times more populous than
Pakistan, should be the focus of U. S. strategic and economic interests in
South Asia. Such a policy would reflect genuine American national inter-ests
at the end of the Cold War and in the aftermath of September 11.
The United States has a clear interest in establishing strong ties with India,
one of the rising political, economic, and military powers in Asia and a
potential strategic counterbalance to an increasingly assertive and difficult
China. India is also the world's largest democracy as well as an important
emerging economy and an expanding market for U. S. goods and
investment.
The strengthening of U. S. ties with India should not, however, be
construed as unconditional support for India's position on Kashmir in a
way that could increase the power of the more hawkish nationalist forces in
New Delhi. Washington should remain committed to a peaceful, negotiated
settlement of the Kashmir dispute leading (it is to be hoped) to an outcome
that will give that province more political autonomy. But the United States
should not get directly involved in trying to mediate that conflict and should
recognize that American interests would be preserved if the resolution of
the conflict reflected the balance of power in the region— which clearly
favors India. On the other hand, a solution that tilts in the direction of
the radical Muslim terrorists in Kashmir would amount to a defeat of the
U. S. goals in the war on terrorism. Hence, pressing the Indians not to
respond to terrorist acts directed from Pakistan and resisting calls by Indian
leaders for the United States to condemn anti-Indian terrorism in Kashmir
project more than morally dubious double standards. Such a policy runs
contrary to U. S. national interests.
Suggested Readings
Ganguly, Sumit. Conflict Unending: India-Pakistan Tensions since 1947. New York: Columbia University Press, 2002.
Gobarev, Victor M. '' India as a World Power: Changing Washington's Myopic Policy. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 381, September 11, 2002.
Gurcharan, Das. India Unbound. New York: Knopf, 2001.
Hadar, Leon T. '' Pakistan in America's War against Terrorism: Strategic Ally or Unrelia-ble Client? '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 436, May 8, 2002.
Kux, Dennis. The United States and Pakistan, 1947– 2000. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001.
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Perkovich, George. India's Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1999.
Rashid, Ahmed. Taliban. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 2000.
—Prepared by Leon T. Hadar
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56. The International War on Drugs
Congress should
repeal the Anti-Drug Abuse Acts of 1986 and 1988 and all
legislation requiring the United States to certify drug-source countries' cooperation in counternarcotics efforts,
declare an end to the international war on drugs, and
remove U. S. trade barriers to the products of developing coun-tries.
Washington's international drug control campaign exhibits every flaw
inherent in central planning. The war on drugs— a program whose budget
has more than quadrupled over the past 15 years— has failed remarkably
in all aspects of its overseas mission. Most telling, illicit drugs continue
to flow across U. S. borders, unaffected by the more than $35 billion
Washington has spent since 1981 in its supply-side campaign. The purity
of cocaine and heroin, moreover, has increased, while the prices of those
drugs have fallen dramatically during the same period.
The U. S. government has not only federalized the social problem of
drug abuse by treating narcotics use as a criminal offense; it has intruded
into the complex social settings of dozens of countries around the globe
by pressuring foreign governments to adopt laws and policies of its liking.
In the process, the U. S.-led war on drugs has severely aggravated the
political and economic problems of drug-source nations and increased
financing for terrorist groups. Counternarcotics strategy thus conflicts with
sound foreign policy goals, namely the encouragement of free markets,
democracy, and peace. For countless reasons, the international drug war
is both undesirable and unwinnable.
Failure on Three Fronts
One component of the supply-side campaign has been interdiction of
drug traffic coming into the United States. That approach has been ineffec-567
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tive at reducing the availability of cocaine and heroin because authorities
seize only 5 to 15 percent of drug imports and because traffickers easily
adapt to such disruptions by using new smuggling innovations and routes.
In an implicit recognition of the failure of interdiction efforts, the Clinton
administration began favoring strategies that focus on drug-producing
countries. Yet there was little reason to believe that an approach that
emphasized eradication, crop-substitution, and interdiction efforts in drug-source
countries would be more successful than interdiction of drugs along
transit routes. A principal reason that supply reduction efforts cannot be
expected to affect the use of cocaine, for example, lies in the price structure
of the illicit drug industry. Smuggling costs make up only 10 percent of
the final value of cocaine in the United States. Those costs, combined
with all other production costs outside the United States, account for only
13 percent of cocaine's retail price. Drug traffickers thus have every
incentive to continue bringing their product to market; they view eradica-tion
and interdiction as a mere cost of doing business. Moreover, even if
such efforts were successful at raising the price of coca paste or cocaine
in drug-source countries, their effect on the final price of cocaine in the
United States would be negligible. As analyst Kevin Jack Riley has
observed, '' Using source country price increases to create domestic scarci-ties
is similar to attempting to raise glass prices by pushing sand back
into the sea. ''
The efforts of international drug warriors are also routinely frustrated by
drug traffickers' dynamic responses to counternarcotics policies. Already
expecting interference in their business, traffickers build redundant process-ing
facilities in case current ones are destroyed, for example, or stockpile
their product inside the United States in case of smuggling interruptions.
The massive resources available to the $300 billion global illicit drug
industry also enable it to react to counternarcotics strategies with ease. At
best, drug war '' victories'' are ephemeral as the industry accommodates
itself to new conditions. That situation has reduced U. S. officials to citing
drug seizure figures or expressions of political will by foreign governments
as important gains in the U. S.-orchestrated war on drugs.
The evidence from the field is less compelling. According to the State
Department's annual International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, the
total area planted in coca from 1987 to 1995 grew from 176, 000 hectares
to 214,000 hectares, dropping subsequently to 190,000 in 2001. The area
planted in opium poppy, mostly in South Asia, more than doubled from
112,585 hectares to 249,610 hectares from 1987 to 1996 and fell to 143,918
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hectares in 2001. The decreases in recent years have resulted from a
combination of oversupply, the Taliban's crackdown on opium production
in Afghanistan, intensified crackdowns on coca-growing regions in Peru
and Bolivia, and a fungus that has attacked the coca plant. However, since
those figures do not reveal important qualitative information, they can be
misleading. For example, the destruction of less productive older plants
and the cultivation of new, more productive plants are not captured by
those data.
Indeed, the State Department's estimates of net production of illicit
drug crops illustrate the futility of its overseas campaign. From 1987 to
2000, opium production increased from 2,242 metric tons to 5,010 metric
tons, dropping to 1, 236 metric tons in 2001, a fall due almost entirely to
the Taliban's ruthless enforcement policies in Afghanistan, a country where
Washington has no influence. Yet as the State Department itself concedes,
although '' total potential world-wide opium production in 1999 was at its
lowest point in a decade and a half, the approximately three thousand
metric tons potentially available were more than enough to supply global
heroin demand many times over. '' And despite increased eradication
efforts— the U. S. government pressures source-country governments to
eliminate drug crops by spraying pesticides, slashing illegal plants, or
burning peasants' fields— coca leaf production increased from 291,100
metric tons in 1987 to 655,800 metric tons in 2001 (see Figure 56.1).
Peasant farmers still view illegal drug cultivation as advantageous despite
coercive drug control measures.
Figure 56.1 Potential Coca Leaf Production, 1993– 2001
(Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru)
200,000
250,000 300,000
350,000 400,000
450,000 500,000
550,000 600,000
650,000 700,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
Metric
Tons
SOURCE: U. S. Department of State, Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, Interna-tional
Narcotics Control Strategy Report, 2002.
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Less coercive schemes have also been tried. Crop-substitution and alter-native
development programs, for example, seek to encourage peasants
to join the legal market in agriculture or other sectors. U. S. aid finances
infrastructure projects, such as roads and bridges, and subsidizes the culti-vation
of legal agricultural goods, such as coffee and corn.
Here, too, serious obstacles and unintended consequences undermine
the best-laid plans of Washington and the governments of drug-source
countries. Coca plants, for example, grow in areas and under conditions
that are thoroughly inhospitable to legal crops, making a switch to legal
alternatives unrealistic. (Only 5 to 10 percent of the major coca-growing
regions in Peru and Bolivia may be suitable for legal crops.)
Farmers can also earn far higher returns from illicit plants than from
the alternatives. For that reason, even when they enter crop-substitution
programs, peasants often continue to grow drug plants in other areas.
Ironically, in such cases, the U. S. government subsidizes the production
of illegal drugs.
Indeed, programs that pay peasants not to produce coca can have other
effects policymakers did not anticipate, as analysts Patrick Clawson and
Rensselaer Lee point out: '' The voluntary programs are similar to the
crop acreage reduction program that the U. S. government uses to raise
the income of wheat farmers. It is not clear why Washington thinks that
a crop reduction program raises the income of Midwest wheat farmers
but lowers the income of Andean coca farmers. In fact, in both cases, the
crop reduction program really is a price support program that can raise
farmer income. ''
The drug industry also benefits from improved infrastructure. One World
Bank report reviewed road projects, funded by the World Bank, the U. S.
Agency for International Development, and the Inter-American Develop-ment
Bank, in coca-growing regions in Peru. '' While the roads were
useful in expanding coca production, they have severely hampered the
development of legal activities. '' It is interesting to note that the major
coca-growing regions in Peru and Bolivia— the Upper Huallaga Valley and
the Chapare, respectively— were sites of major U. S.-funded development
projects in previous decades.
Finally, even if alternative development programs were able to raise
the prices of legal crops so that they exceeded or were at least competitive
with the price paid for illegal crops, that situation could not last. The cost
of growing coca, for example, represents such a small fraction of the final
value of cocaine— less than 1 percent— that the illicit drug industry will
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always be able to pay farmers more than the subsidized alternatives could
command.
Coerced Cooperation
The main components of the international narcotics control campaign
have produced dismal results and hold little promise of improvement.
Although that reality may be well recognized by drug-source nations, U. S.
law ensures that most of those countries' governments comply, however
reluctantly, with U. S. demands. The Anti-Drug Abuse Acts of 1986 and
1988 condition foreign aid and access to the U. S. market on the adoption
of narcotics control initiatives in foreign countries.
That legislation directs the president to determine annually whether
drug-producing and drug-transit countries are fully cooperating in the U. S. -led
drug war. The certification procedure employs a series of trade and
aid sanctions and rewards intended to gain that cooperation. If the president
decertifies a country, or if Congress rejects the president's certification,
the United States imposes mandatory sanctions that include the suspension
of 50 percent of U. S. aid and some trade benefits. Discretionary sanctions
may include the end of preferential tariff treatment, limits on air traffic
between the United States and the decertified country, and increased duties
on the country's exports to the United States.
U. S. Policy Is Not Just Ineffective
Efforts to '' get tough'' on drug-producing nations have caused an
increase in violence and corruption, distorted economies, and undermined
fragile democratic governments and the institutions of civil society. As
long as drugs remain outside the legal framework of the market and U. S.
demand continues, the enormous profit potential that results not only
makes eliminating the industry impossible but makes the attempts to do
so thoroughly destructive.
It is Washington's prohibitionist strategy— and not the narcotics trade
per se— that is responsible for the problems usually associated with drug
trafficking. Colombia, the principal target of Washington's international
drug control campaign, has over the years seen its judicial, legislative,
and executive branches become steadily corrupted by the drug trade.
Crackdowns on leading trafficking organizations have produced wide-spread
violence and even dismantled cartels, but they have not affected
the country's illicit export performance.
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The pervasive influence of the illegal drug industry in Colombian soci-ety,
and the Colombian government's apparently insufficient efforts to
escalate the war against traffickers, led to Clinton's 1996 and 1997 decerti-fications
of that country. In 1998 Colombian journalist Andre´s Cavelier
complained that the decertifications had caused the private sector to suffer:
'' Because of threats of economic sanctions, legitimate sectors such as the
flower industry have been obliged to hire expensive public relations firms
to lobby official Washington against the imposition of sanctions. ''
Colombia's efforts to convince the United States that it wishes to
cooperate in the fight against narcotics led Bogota´ to undertake coca
eradication and other counternarcotic initiatives. Those initiatives have
created resentment among peasant populations, who have consequently
increased their support of major guerrilla groups, and have reinforced the
business relationship between drug traffickers and the rebels who protect
illicit drug operations. Indeed, Colombia's various guerrilla organizations
earn anywhere from $100 million to $150 million a year from drug-related
activities.
Furthermore, the escalation of the drug war has provoked a wave of
guerrilla violence that has destabilized Colombia and successfully dis-placed
government authority in large parts of the country. '' If you can
single out one act that has played a decisive role, '' Defense Minister Juan
Carlos Esguerra explained as far back as 1996, '' I have no doubt that
it is our frontal offensive against narco-trafficking in the southeast of
the country. ''
The United States has responded by massively increasing, in 2000, aid
to Colombia to $1.3 billion, most of which has gone to the military, and
by subsequently expanding the counterdrug initiative in the Andean region.
Washington has also sent to Colombia U. S. personnel, including Special
Forces trainers and hundreds of advisers from the Central Intelligence
Agency, the Drug Enforcement Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency,
and other U. S. agencies. Because the drug war has helped blur the line
between the illicit drug industry and various insurgent groups, U. S. anti-narcotics
aid is increasingly being used to fight the long-standing guerrilla
movement— a use that is dragging the United States into Colombia's
messy political and social setting.
The U. S.-orchestrated drug war in Colombia and elsewhere has thus
weakened the rule of law and the institutions of civil society and financed
terrorism. In Peru, for example, the Maoist Shining Path guerrillas received
up to $100 million per year during the 1980s from their marriage of
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convenience with drug traffickers. That situation prompted Harvard econo-mist
Robert Barro to suggest that '' the U. S. government could achieve
pretty much the same results if it gave the aid money directly to the
terrorists. ''
The crippling of the Shining Path came only after the Peruvian govern-ment
suspended coca plant eradication programs and concentrated its
efforts on anti-terrorist activities and market liberalization. Unfortunately,
the administration of President Alberto Fujimori abrogated the constitution
in 1992 in a move intended to fight the rebel groups and institutional
corruption, problems nourished by the drug war. Peru later reintroduced
democratic rule and initiated further market reforms. Renewed U. S. efforts
to get tough on Peru (the country did not receive full certification in 1994
or 1995), however, may compromise those successes. The resumption of
coca eradication and other traditional anti-narcotics measures is worrisome
in a country that has recently experienced economic stagnation, the return
of populist rhetoric, and outbursts of terrorist violence.
Washington's heavy-handed ways have recently been evident in Bolivia
as well. The livelihood of thousands of coca growers in the Chapare region
has been wiped out by years of a vigorous, U. S.-backed coca eradication
campaign that has not managed to provide the farmers with alternative
sources of income. The result has been not only an increase in social
unrest; the eradication program has also led to the rise of Evo Morales,
an anti-American, anti– free market political leader representing the griev-ances
of the dispossessed farmers. In the presidential elections of June
2002, Morales came in a close second to the market-liberal candidate,
Gonzalo Sa´nchez de Lozada. The populist candidate received a further
boost from Washington shortly before the elections when the U. S. ambassa-dor
warned Bolivians not to vote for Morales, a message that had the
opposite effect. The prospects that the president will be able to advance
market-oriented policies have been diminished by the new political promi-nence
of Morales, whose party now controls the largest bloc in the congress.
Latin American societies are not the only ones threatened by the global
prohibitionist model. Illegal opium production takes place in Pakistan,
Afghanistan, China, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Burma, and other countries
in South and Central Asia. Many of those nations are struggling to become
more market oriented and establish the foundations of civil society. U. S.
supply-reduction efforts are increasingly focusing on countries that produce
those drugs. Yet, if aggressive prosecution of the drug war has managed
to undermine relatively well rooted democracies such as Colombia's, there
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is every reason to believe that U. S. drug policy in Asia may be even
more reckless.
Mexico provides perhaps the most urgent warning to leaders of Wash-ington's
anti-narcotics crusade. Major Mexican drug cartels gained strength
and influence as the U. S.-led interdiction campaign in the Caribbean,
which began in the mid-1980s, rerouted narcotics traffic through Mexico.
Unfortunately, the result has been a sort of '' Colombianization'' of Mexico,
where drug-related violence has since increased. The 1993 killing of
Cardinal Juan Jesu´s Posadas in Guadalajara, the assassinations of top
ruling party officials, and the discovery of hundreds of millions of dollars
in the overseas bank accounts of former president Carlos Salinas's brother
all appear to be connected to the illicit drug business. The 1997 arrest
and subsequent conviction of Mexican '' drug czar'' Gen. Jesu´s Gutie´rrez
Rebollo for protecting drug traffickers, the later indictment of the governor
of the state of Quintana Roo, and President Vincente Fox's arrest of
hundreds of police officers on drug-related charges only confirmed that
the illicit industry has managed to corrupt government officials at all levels.
The destabilization of Mexico is especially unfortunate because of the
country's efforts at economic and political liberalization. Unlike its treat-ment
of Colombia, however, Washington has consistently granted Mexico
full certification despite evidence of narcocorruption throughout the Mexi-can
government. The inconsistency of U. S. drug policy toward the region
is plain, but the internal contradictions of U. S. foreign policy would
probably become too conspicuous were Washington to threaten sanctions
against a partner in the North American Free Trade Agreement. An increas-ingly
unstable Mexico also has serious implications for the United States.
If Mexico experienced the level of social violence and volatility seen in
Colombia or Peru, for instance, the United States would be directly
affected— a development that would almost certainly provoke Washing-ton's
increased involvement in Mexico's complex domestic affairs.
The uneven standard by which Washington certifies nations is even
more obvious when one looks outside Latin America. Where Washington
has little or no influence, it is not hesitant to decertify a country— as has
consistently been the case for Iran, Burma, and Syria. Yet, as the Council
on Foreign Relations points out: '' Iran pursues a vigorous drug control
effort, forcibly eradicating opium crops, seizing large stocks of drugs,
arresting users, and executing traffickers. By contrast, Russia is both a
substantial opium producer as well as a transit country and money launder-ing
center of growing importance but it is not included on the list of
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countries requiring annual certification. '' U. S. officials have fortunately,
though far too slowly, recognized that the certification process is not
serving U. S. interests and have deemphasized that aspect of the drug war
in recent years.
Finally, Washington has not only created severe difficulties for drug-producing
nations, its drug control efforts have helped disperse the narcot-ics
industry to countries that might otherwise have avoided such penetra-tion.
Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil, for example, have seen an upsurge
in drug-related activity. Similarly, international disruptions in the various
stages of illicit drug production have encouraged local traffickers to be
self-sufficient in all stages of production. For example, the crackdown on
Colombia's Cali cartel, which temporarily depressed coca prices in Peru
in the 1990s, prompted the Peruvian industry to enter more advanced
stages of cocaine production. More dramatic, while supply reduction initia-tives
have temporarily reduced coca production in Peru and Bolivia, in
recent years those efforts have resulted in a more than 150 percent increase
in coca cultivation in Colombia, making it the world's largest producer
of the crop.
Toward a Constructive Approach
Washington's international drug war has failed by every measure. Pro-duction
of drugs in foreign countries has increased, and the flow of drugs
to the United States has continued. The Council on Foreign Relations
notes, '' For twenty years, these programs have done little more than
rearrange the map of drug production and trafficking. '' In fact, the impact
of U. S. narcotics control policies is even worse, severely aggravating
political, economic, and social problems in developing countries. Attempts
to escalate the drug war, even in a dramatic way, will do little to change
those realities.
Similarly, a more multilateral approach to fighting the drug war—
through the United Nations or the Organization of American States, for
example— will not work. Involving more governments and bureaucracies
may marginally deflect political criticism away from the United States,
but that approach cannot solve the fundamental problems created by
prohibition: corruption, political violence, the destruction of civil society,
the distortion of economic activity, and increased financing of terrorism.
The multilateral strategy will have especially low credibility if international
organizations present wildly unrealistic solutions, such as the UN's 1998
plan to eliminate global drug production in 10 years.
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Washington should instead encourage the worldwide shift away from
statism toward the creation of markets and civil society by ending its
international crusade against drugs and opening its markets to drug-source
countries' legal goods. Doing so will hardly affect U. S. drug consumption,
but it would at least be a recognition that narcotics abuse is a domestic
social problem that foreign policy cannot solve.
Suggested Readings
Clawson, Patrick L., and Rensselaer Lee III. The Andean Cocaine Industry. New York: St. Martin's, 1996.
Carpenter, Ted Galen. Bad Neighbor Policy: Washington's Futile War on Drugs in Latin America. New York: Palgrave, 2003.
. '' Ending the International Drug War. '' In How to Legalize Drugs. Edited by Jefferson M. Fish. Northvale, N. J.: Jason Aronson, 1998.
Council on Foreign Relations. Rethinking International Drug Control: New Directions for U. S. Policy. New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1997.
Riley, Kevin Jack. Snow Job? The War against International Cocaine Trafficking. New Brunswick, N. J.: Transaction, 1996.
Thoumi, Francisco. Political Economy and Illegal Drugs in Colombia. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Reinner, 1995.
—Prepared by Ian Va´squez
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57. Relations with China
Congress should
treat China as a normal great power, not as a '' strategic
partner'' or a probable adversary; continue to liberalize U. S.-Chinese relations and hold China
to its World Trade Organization commitments; avoid imposing economic sanctions against China even for
narrowly defined objectives, since such measures will under-mine permanent normal trade relations (PNTR);
reject the proposed Taiwan Security Enhancement Act but sup-port
Taiwan's requests to purchase defensive weapons sys-tems; and
recognize that advancing economic freedom in China has had
positive effects on civil society and personal freedom for the Chinese people.
Constructive Partner or Emerging Threat?
U. S.-Chinese relations have become increasingly unpredictable. Only
a short time ago, both governments spoke of a '' strategic partnership''
and sought ways to enhance already substantial economic and political
ties. The bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, the release of the
Cox report alleging systematic nuclear espionage by the People's Republic
of China, and the forced landing of a U. S. spy plane on Hainan Island
produced a new round of tensions. Those have been offset, somewhat, by
China's accession to the World Trade Organization and by cooperation
between Beijing and Washington in the war against terrorism. But, as the
2002 reports by the U. S.-China Security Review Commission and the
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Pentagon illustrate, there is deep concern that China will be an increasing
threat to U. S. global economic and military power.
It would be a major mistake, however, to backslide from a policy of
engagement into one of containment and to treat China as an adversary
rather than as a normal great power. Managing relations with China and
avoiding the extremes of confrontation or wishful thinking will be one of
the key challenges facing U. S. policymakers in the next decade.
China's economy has grown precisely because Beijing has allowed
greater economic freedom. The rapid growth of trade has increased per
capita incomes in China and provided the Chinese people with new oppor-tunities.
In 1978 the total value of Chinese imports and exports amounted
to only $20.6 billion. By the end of 2001, their value had increased to
$509. 8 billion (Figure 57. 1). China's desire to compete in world markets
is good for consumers and poses no threat to U. S. security.
Protectionists in the United States who point to large and growing trade
deficits with China and to increased U. S. investment in China should not
be allowed to block trade liberalization by injudicious use of national
security and human rights arguments. Further liberalization of U. S. -Figure
57.1 China's Opening to the Outside World
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Billions
of
U.
S.
Dollars
Exports
Imports
SOURCE: PRC General Administration of Customs, China's Customs Statistics.
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Chinese trade is a win-win strategy and can play an important role in
promoting peace and prosperity. Containment would do the opposite.
The U. S.-China Commission report '' The National Security Implica-tions
of the Economic Relationship between the United States and China''
offered more than 40 recommendations, many of which implicitly assume
that China is a threat to U. S. economic and military power. Congress
should not enact any recommendation that would endanger our policy of
engagement. In particular, Congress should strongly oppose the creation
of a '' federally mandated corporate reporting system. '' That system is
designed to force U. S. firms doing business in China to provide extensive
data on all their business activities, even those that have no significant
impact on national security.
U. S. firms investing in China would be strictly monitored and have to
account for their investments in China and how those might affect jobs
in the United States. Enactment of such a recommendation would impose
a heavy burden on U. S. firms and put them at a competitive disadvantage
in the Chinese market. Reduced investment in that market would have a
negative impact on the U. S. market, because subsidiaries in China would
import fewer U. S.-made components.
The USCC report also calls for Congress to '' renew the Super 301
provision of U. S. trade law and request the Administration to identify and
report on other tools that would be most effective in opening China's
market to U. S. exports if China fails to comply with its WTO commit-ments.
'' Such a step would be unwise. China should be given ample time
to meet its obligations to the WTO and to the United States under the
1999 bilateral market access agreement. The United States should work
through the WTO dispute resolution mechanism and target specific cases
that are significant rather than try to prosecute every infraction of the trade
agreement. It is in the interests of both Washington and Beijing to open
China's markets. China will be undergoing important changes in its leader-ship,
and the reformers need to have congressional support.
Likewise, Congress should not follow the commission's advice to
'' amend the CVD [countervailing duty] law to specifically state that it
applies to NMEs [nonmarket economies]. '' The purpose of that recommen-dation
is '' to protect U. S. industries from unfair competition from the
imports of these economies. '' In fact, China is unfairly treated by the use
of NME methodology in determining production costs in antidumping
cases. The methodology is grossly defective and prevents China from
realizing its comparative cost advantage. Moreover, China has a higher
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economic freedom rating than Russia, yet the European Union has dropped
the NME label for Russia. The United States should do the same for
China. U. S. consumers would gain as a result.
Congress should not let protectionist interests dominate future U. S. -Chinese
relations. The USCC report sends the wrong signal to Congress
and to China. Instead of seeing China as a threat, Congress needs to
cooperate with China in ways that are mutually beneficial. As Joseph
Borich, executive director of the Washington State China Relations Coun-cil,
noted in his July 2002 CRC Update:
The draconian system the commission would create will do little or nothing
to promote the long-term security of the U. S. Conversely, it would under-mine
shared Sino-U. S. interests, create a whole new layer of federal bureauc-racy
and bureaucratic requirements to bedevil U. S. business, and lay the
basis for a self-fulfilling prophecy that could actually diminish our security.
Continued trade liberalization and engagement on a number of fronts,
including a more liberal visa policy that permits Chinese students to study
in the United States, especially law, economics, and the humanities, will
have positive long-term benefits. Visa procedures should be reexamined.
So long as individuals pose no threat to our national security, they should
be encouraged to learn about our free society firsthand. Free trade can
help normalize China and transform it into a modern economy and a civil
society under the rule of law. Backsliding into protectionism cannot.
Both the USCC and Pentagon reports imply that as China grows wealth-ier
its military spending will increase to the detriment of the United States
and our Asian allies. That danger cannot be overlooked, but the probability
is small compared with the likelihood that, as the nonstate sector in China
grows, the Chinese Communist Party will lose power and political reform
will ensue.
China is a normal, albeit sometimes difficult, rising great power. China's
behavior can sometimes pose challenges, but the country is not a dangerous
threat to U. S. security. China's military spending is a tiny fraction of U. S.
defense spending. It will take decades before China can even come close
to current U. S. spending levels. (China officially spends $19 billion on
defense, but the actual figure is somewhere between $40 billion and $60
billion. In contrast, U. S. defense spending for fiscal year 2003 is $397
billion.) China's weapons systems are no match for those of the United
States— although China is making a serious effort to modernize its
armed forces.
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Relations with China
The Taiwan Question
The most serious potential flashpoint in relations between the United
States and China involves the status of Taiwan. China is primarily con-cerned
with its domestic stability and with Taiwan's ultimate return to
the motherland. The United States should insist that China use peaceful
means to settle the Taiwan question. Despite Beijing's objections, the
United States should be more willing to sell Taiwan the weapons it needs
for its own defense. However, Congress should reject the proposed Taiwan
Security Enhancement Act, which would create extensive military ties
between Washington and Taipei and put the United States in the middle
of the dangerous PRC-Taiwan dispute. The best way to bring about a
peaceful resolution to the Taiwan issue is to further liberalize trade relations
between the mainland and Taiwan.
During the past 10 years, Taiwanese investors have committed more
than $70 billion to Chinese projects. Those investors have a strong incentive
to maintain peace in order to increase their own prosperity. Likewise, they
have an incentive to have direct trade, transport, and postal links with the
mainland. The sooner those links are established, the better the chance
for a cooperative solution to the Taiwan question. Congress should recog-nize
that reality.
As a free country, Taiwan obviously has no incentive to become part
of the PRC at this time. But if liberal economic policies on both sides of
the strait continue, then China may undergo the quiet revolution that has
occurred on the island. In that case, a peaceful solution to the Taiwan
question could be realized. Congress should foster that process. Taiwan's
recent accession to the WTO, following in China's footsteps, is a positive
development that offers hope for the future.
Forging a Constructive Relationship
The dark side of the Chinese communist state is disturbing and must
not be ignored. But that unsavory record should not be allowed to hide
the progress that the Chinese people have made since economic reforms
began in 1978. Increased trade has promoted the growth of markets relative
to state planning, given millions of people new opportunities, and substan-tially
raised living standards, especially in the coastal cities where economic
liberalization has advanced the most. The primary goal of U. S. foreign
policy should be to further the liberalization trend in China by maintaining
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a cooperative, constructive relationship. The most direct means of achiev-ing
that goal is through closer trade ties.
China has benefited most not from Western aid but from trade. As Ma
Yu, a senior research fellow of the Chinese Academy of International
Trade and Economic Cooperation, recently wrote in China Daily's Business
Weekly, '' The root cause of China's high-speed economic growth . . . is
the policy of reform and opening-up. '' Congress should not take any
actions that would stall that process.
The challenge for the United States is to exploit opportunities for further
gains from trade and move closer to a constructive partnership with the
PRC— but at the same time protect vital U. S. interests. Unfortunately,
U. S. policy is drifting toward confrontation, as witnessed, in particular,
by the USCC and Pentagon reports. That strategy risks creating a self-fulfilling
prophecy that China will become an enemy. Indeed, a growing
chorus in Congress and the U. S. foreign policy community argues that
the PRC is a belligerent dictatorship and an implacable future enemy of
the United States.
Painting China as an economic and military adversary is dangerous
and misguided. Free trade is mutually beneficial— both China and other
countries gain from trade liberalization. There is no doubt that, as the
Chinese economy grows, so will the Chinese military budget. But that is
not unusual for a large nation-state, and thus far China's military spending
and its military modernization effort have been relatively modest.
It is true that no one can be certain how the PRC will behave on security
issues in the future. Unlike Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union, however,
the PRC is not a messianic, expansionist power; it is a normal rising (or
reawakening) great power. At times, that can be difficult for other countries
to deal with, but such a country does not pose a malignant security threat.
Proceed with Caution
The best course is to treat China as a normal (albeit sometimes repressive
and prickly) great power and avoid the extremes of viewing the PRC as
either an enemy or a strategic partner. The United States would also be
wise to encourage other major countries in Asia to think more seriously
about how they intend to deal with a rising China. A collection of diffident,
militarily weak neighbors, wholly dependent on the United States for
protection, is not likely to cause Beijing to behave cautiously.
Beijing's behavior toward regional neighbors has been a curious amal-gam
of conciliation and abrasiveness. Examples of conciliation include
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efforts to dampen the border disputes with such important land neighbors
as India, Vietnam, Russia, and Kazakhstan and a campaign to build close
political and economic ties with South Korea. The PRC has also been
helpful in trying to discourage the North Korean regime from pursuing
nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs and has facilitated the
recent de´tente between the two Koreas. At the same time, China's relations
with Japan, the Philippines, and some other oceanic neighbors are notice-ably
more confrontational, and Beijing still aggressively pushes its territo-rial
claims in the South China Sea.
Taiwan remains an especially dangerous flashpoint. Any move toward
formal independence by Taipei would surely provoke military action by
Beijing. Yet China's economic future depends strongly on Taiwan's pros-perity,
so military action is likely seen as a last resort. The increasing
popularity of Taiwanese president Chen Shui-bian may eventually cause
Beijing to open a serious dialogue with the island's leaders.
China's Changing Tide
The domestic tension created by Beijing's strategy of opening China's
economy to the outside world while preventing meaningful political change
has to be released sooner or later. The question is, How far and how fast
will China go toward creating a fully open society based on private property
and limited government? Gradualism appears to have worked reasonably
well so far, but the inefficiency of China's state sector is apparent and
corruption is rampant.
Yet it is undeniable that a significant transformation has occurred in
the post-Mao era. Slowly but surely China is moving toward a stronger
civil society, with the driving force being the market-oriented reforms
initiated by Deng Xiaoping. Chinese intellectuals are now largely free to
travel and lecture outside the mainland, and they are more interested in
the works of Hayek and Friedman than those of Marx and Engels. Whether
China will go all the way to a true free-market system, though, remains
highly uncertain.
That uncertainty is why the United States needs a clear, realistic, and
prudent foreign policy toward the PRC. Instead of painting China as a
serious threat one day and as a de facto strategic ally the next, the United
States needs to formulate a balanced view consistent with our own princi-ples—
a view that recognizes our long-term interest in engaging China
while at the same time protecting our national security. The PRC's claims
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to the South China Sea islands and its relations with Japan and Taiwan
must be viewed from that perspective.
It is also important to consider the future of economic, political, and
social reform in China and how that future may be shaped by the liberal
influence of Hong Kong and Taiwan. Will freedom spill over from those
more open societies to the mainland, or will Chinese communism slowly
corrupt the rule of law and weaken the free market in Hong Kong and
seek to absorb and subordinate Taiwan? It seems clear that, unless it
privatizes state-owned enterprises, China faces continuing problems of
corruption and inefficiency. But wholesale privatization would undermine
the last vestiges of party power. So the challenge for China's leadership
is stark.
Ultimately, the creation of real as opposed to pseudo markets in China
will require the full recognition of private property rights. The recent
amendment to Article 11 of the PRC constitution, which places the nonstate
sector and private enterprise on a par with state-owned enterprises, is a
step in that direction. But without further constitutional and political reform
that places rights to life, liberty, and property above the party, and allows
for both economic and political freedom, there can be no certainty of
ownership.
Article 11 of the PRC Constitution, as Amended March 15, 1999
'' Individual, private and other non-public economies that exist within
the limits prescribed by law are major components of the socialist
market economy. The state protects the lawful rights and interests
of individual and private economies . . .'' (emphasis added).
That is why it is so important for China to face foreign economic
competition and to be exposed to new ideas. Every step in the direction
of greater economic freedom will provide further opportunities for the
Chinese people to enlarge their private space and shrink the relative size of
the state. Pressures will then build for greater social and political freedom.
An independent scholar in Beijing gave the best concise answer to the
question of whether China will be a constructive partner or an emerging
threat in the early 21st century. In his view, the answer will '' depend, to
a very great extent, on the fate of liberalism in China: a liberal China will
be a constructive partner; a nationalistic and authoritarian China will be
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Relations with China
an emerging threat. '' America must prepare for both possibilities, but its
policies should avoid needless snubs and provocations that would under-mine
the prospect for the emergence of a democratic, peaceful China.
Recommended Readings
Carpenter, Ted Galen. '' Going Too Far: Bush's Pledge to Defend Taiwan. '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 66, May 30, 2001.
. ''Let Taiwan Defend Itself. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 313, August 24, 1998.
. '' Managing a Great Power Relationship: The United States, China and East Asian Security. '' Journal of Strategic Studies 21, no. 1 (March 1998).
. '' Roiling Asia: U. S. Coziness with China Upsets the Neighbors. '' Foreign Affairs 77, no. 6 (November– December 1998).
Carpenter, Ted Galen, and James A. Dorn, eds. China's Future: Constructive Partner or Emerging Threat? Washington: Cato Institute, 2000.
Dorn, James A. '' China's Future: Market Socialism or Market Taoism? '' Cato Journal 18, no. 1 (Spring– Summer 1998): 131– 46.
. '' Trade and Human Rights: The Case of China. '' Cato Journal 16 (Spring– Summer 1996).
Dorn, James A., ed. China in the New Millennium: Market Reforms and Social Develop-ment. Washington: Cato Institute, 1998.
Kristof, Nicholas D., and Sheryl Wudunn. China Wakes: The Struggle for the Soul of a Rising Power. New York: Times Books, 1994.
Lampton, David M., ed. The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, 1978– 2000. Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 2001.
Vogel, Ezra F., ed. Living with China: U. S.-China Relations in the Twenty-First Century. New York: Norton, 1997.
—Prepared by Ted Galen Carpenter and James A. Dorn
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58. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
Congress should
resist calls for increased U. S. diplomatic efforts to resolve the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict; oppose U. S. '' nation-building'' undertakings in the Palestinian
territories; reject proposals to dispatch U. S. troops as part of international
peacekeeping forces in the Palestinian territories; support efforts by Arab states and the European Union to help
resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; phase out all U. S. military and economic aid programs for
Israel, while forgiving repayment of past military loans; terminate all financial assistance to the Palestinian Authority;
and consider replacing the current interventionist policy in the Mid-dle
East with a policy of '' constructive disengagement. ''
President Bush's June 24, 2002, address on the Middle East situation
disappointed critics at home and abroad who chastise the White House
for failing to '' do something'' to bring an end to the conflict between
Israelis and Palestinians. Those critics have accused the Bush administra-tion
of being disengaged from that conflict and suggested that the adminis-tration's
low-key approach helped to produce the current violence and
brought about an erosion in U. S. '' leadership. '' Washington, they argue,
should adopt an activist role aimed at forcing Israel to withdraw from the
West Bank and Gaza and creating the conditions for the establishment of
an independent Palestinian state.
Although President Bush did promise in the address to work with other
players to create a Palestinian state within three years, he refrained from
committing Washington to a step-by-step peacemaking process and resisted
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calls to pressure Israel. Instead, he suggested that it was the bankrupt
Palestinian leadership and its support for terrorism that were responsible
for the failure to establish an independent state.
The president's address fell short of the expectations of observers who
wanted Washington to help restart Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. It did,
however, propose a combined strategy of nation building and peacemaking,
drawing Washington into new commitments to reform the Palestinian
Authority and to select a Palestinian leadership that would make peace
with Israel under American supervision.
A formal effort to create a Westernized Palestine living in peace with
Israel is expected to follow military action in Iraq by the United States
and seems to be part of an ambitious undertaking to bring peace and
stability to the Middle East and make it safe for democracy. The central
problem with the Bush plan is the incompatibility of its drive to establish
democracy in the Palestinian territories and its goal of maintaining U. S.
strategic interests in the Middle East by making peace between Israelis
and Palestinians. Free elections in the Palestinian territories are likely to
elevate to power forces that would be opposed to peace with Israel, even
given the more moderate positions of the Israel Labor Party. An American
crusade for democracy in a new Palestinian state would only help to erode
the fragile foundations of Washington's realpolitik goals of a U. S.-backed
Palestinian-Israeli agreement.
Instead of trying to implement impractical Wilsonian goals in the Holy
Land and the entire Middle East, which would force the United States to
assume imperial commitments in that region, officials and lawmakers
should consider an alternative policy of '' constructive disengagement, ''
which might include incentives for the creation of regional military and
economic arrangements in which the European Union played an expanded
role. Washington should reject demands to internationalize the conflict
between Israelis and Palestinians, which assume that the United States
should and would be responsible for resolving it and paying the costs
involved. Instead, the Bush administration and Congress should encourage
the process of '' localizing'' what is in essence a civil war. Such a policy
fits with U. S. national security interests and would also be more conducive
to resolving the conflict.
This argument for gradual U. S. disengagement from the Middle East
and '' localizing'' the Palestinian-Israeli conflict runs contrary to the con-ventional
wisdom in Washington. The bloody images of Palestinian terror-ism
and Israeli reprisals that are being constantly broadcast by the television
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networks create pressure on the White House to project American leader-ship
and help end the horrific violence. The New York Times and other
leading U. S. publications quote Middle East experts lashing out at President
Bush for failing to come up with a peacemaking strategy and warn of the
dire consequences of American inaction. Some of them even propose
sending U. S. troops to guarantee a border between Israel and a new
Palestinian state. But those pundits have yet to come up with a rationale
for placing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the top of U. S. foreign policy
priorities. Or, to put it differently, they should explain to the American
people why benign neglect of that conflict would have an adverse effect
on core U. S. national interests.
Hyperactive U. S. diplomacy toward Arab-Israeli conflicts could argua-bly
have been justified in the context of the Cold War, as a way of
containing Soviet expansionism in the region and securing Western access
to its oil resources. But today there is no global ideological and military
power threatening to exploit Arab-Israeli tensions as part of a strategy to
dominate the Middle East, and the global energy supply is determined
mostly by market considerations. Israel has made peace and established
diplomatic relations with its former Arab enemies, Egypt and Jordan, and
has the military capability, including a nuclear arsenal, to deter Syria, Iraq,
and Iran. The Arab-Israeli conflict thus has been '' deinternationalized''
and transformed into a civil war between Jews and Arabs over the control
of the territory of Israel and Palestine, including Jerusalem. The war, with
its national, ethnic, and religious dimensions, is clearly a human tragedy,
but— like the conflicts between Azeris and Armenians and Serbs and
Albanians— it must be solved by the groups involved. The United States
can and should express diplomatic support for the peaceful resolution of
such conflicts and for the creation of strong civil societies, but we must
be aware of the limits of our influence.
Americans who contend that the United States has a moral obligation
to bring an end to the bloodshed should recognize that pro-peace factions
in Israel and the Palestinian territories are rather weak. Both sides are
willing to pay the costs of what they regard as a fight for survival, and
there is no reason why the Americans should save them from themselves.
Not unlike other civil wars, this one will end when— and only when—
the sides are exhausted and conclude that their interests would be served
more effectively around the negotiating table than on the battlefield.
In the meantime, there are no indications that the war in the Holy Land
will spill over into a regional Arab-Israeli war and affect U. S. interests,
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since, unlike the situation during the 1973 Mideast War, the Arab govern-ments
lack both the military power to defeat Israel and the diplomatic
and economic ability to threaten American interests. Thus, like that of
most other ethnic and religious conflicts, the impact of the Israeli-Palestin-ian
dispute on U. S. national interests is limited. Arab governments, includ-ing
those of Egypt and Jordan, which have embassies in Tel-Aviv, may
sympathize with the Palestinian cause, but they lack the power to militarily
challenge Israel. Low energy prices make it impossible for them to reapply
the so-called oil weapon. And without the aid of any new geostrategic
great power interested in checkmating Washington, they are now playing
a weak diplomatic hand as they try to help the Palestinians reinternational-ize
the conflict with Israel.
The Arab '' allies'' of the United States, including Saudi Arabia and
Egypt, argue that Washington is obligated to come to the rescue of the
Palestinians. But they should not expect the United States to '' deliver''
Israel. Instead of complaining about the failure of the United States to make
peace in the Holy Land, and warning Americans of the dire consequences of
a low diplomatic profile, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia should recognize
that it is in their national interests and that of the long-term stability of
the region to do something to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a
regional context.
After all, it was a process of direct negotiations between Israelis and
Palestinians, without any direct U. S. involvement, that led to the signing
of the Oslo Agreement (and later the peace accord between Jordan and
Israel). Conversely, it was the attempt by the Clinton administration to
interject itself into the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, leading to the 2001
Camp David talks, that helped create the conditions for the outbreak of
the current intifada (uprising). By rushing into the Camp David summit,
determined to resolve in a few days what are profound and long-standing
differences, President Clinton created unrealistic expectations and found
himself siding with Israel on the issue of Jerusalem, where no U. S. national
interest is at stake. All Clinton accomplished was to provoke an anti-American
backlash in the Arab world.
If anything, the growing conflict in Israel and rising anti-American
sentiment in the Arab world suggest that it is time to turn Washington's
traditional diplomatic strategy on its head. As demonstrated by the outcome
of recent U. S. efforts in the region, U. S. diplomatic activism doesn't
secure regional stability. Rather, it tends to intensify ethnic and religious
animosities and harden opposition to the United States. Even during the
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Cold War, when Washington attempted to help mediate the conflict
between Arabs and Israelis, its efforts proved successful during the 1979
Egyptian-Israeli peace talks only when the two sides agreed in advance
to resolve their differences. Conversely, when the United States tried to
intervene diplomatically and militarily in the Israeli-Palestinian war in
Lebanon in the early 1980s, the move produced devastating effects on
U. S. interests, including a dramatic increase in anti-American terrorism.
But a policy of '' localizing'' the Palestinian-Israeli conflict should not
be equated with a U. S. '' green light'' to Israel to continue with its occupa-tion
and colonization of the Palestinian territories. A process of U. S.
disengagement from the Middle East should set the stage for the United
States to reassess its relationship with Israel and, in particular, to reconsider
whether the huge military and economic aid that Washington is providing
Israel serves U. S. strategic interests. U. S. military assistance for Israel not
only provides it with incentives to adopt policies that ignite anti-American
sentiments among Arabs but also runs contrary to Israel's own interest
of integrating itself into the Middle East. And the annual economic aid
package to Israel only helps to subsidize that country's statist economy.
In the short run, Washington should at least cut economic aid to Israel
by the amount of money Israel spends on building settlements in the
occupied territories and condition military aid on Israel's agreement to
stop using American-made weapons against civilians. At the same time,
Washington should terminate financial assistance to the Palestinian Author-ity.
In the long run, a normalization of the U. S relationship with Israel
should include the elimination of aid to that country. That step would
create an incentive for Israel to reform its sluggish economy and integrate
itself politically into the region.
Israel could play an active role in regional military and economic
arrangements and strengthen ties with the European Union. In fact, the
United States should not resist but welcome the EU's playing a more
activist diplomatic, military, and economic role in the Middle East—
especially EU initiatives to help mediate the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
With its geographical proximity to the Middle East, its dependence on
energy supplies from the Persian Gulf, and its close economic and demo-graphic
ties to the region, including a large community of Arab immigrants,
the EU should be expected to replace the United States as the leading
global military player in the region. If it extracted itself from diplomatic
entanglements and military commitments in the Middle East and normal-ized
its relationship with Israel, the United States might be welcomed into
the region as a trustworthy friend and economic partner.
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Suggested Readings
Friedman, Thomas. From Beirut to Jerusalem. New York: Anchor, 1990. Fromkin, David. A Peace to End All Peace: The Fall of the Ottoman Empire and the
Creation of the Modern Middle East. New York: Owl Books, 2001.
Hadar, Leon T. '' Extricating America from Its Middle Eastern Entanglement. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 154, June 12, 1991.
. '' The Green Peril: Creating the Islamic Fundamentalist Threat. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 177, August 27, 1992.
. Quagmire: America in the Middle East. Washington: Cato Institute, 1992. . '' The Real Lesson of the Oslo Accord: Localize the Arab-Israeli Conflict. ''
Cato Institute Foreign Briefing no. 31, May 9, 1994. Morris, Benny. Righteous Victims: A History of the Zionist-Arab Conflict, 1881– 1999.
New York: Knopf, 2001. Richman, Sheldon L. '' Ancient History: U. S. Conduct in the Middle East since World
War II and the Folly of Intervention. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 159, August 16, 1991.
Segev, Tom. One Palestine, Complete: Jews and Arabs under the British Mandate. New York: Owl Books, 2001.
Shlaim, Avi. The Iron Wall: Israel and the Arab World. New York: W. W. Norton, 2001.
—Prepared by Leon T. Hadar
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59. U. S.-Russian Relations
Congress should
monitor closely the growing strategic ties between Russia
and China, insist on a strong legislative role in U. S.-Russian diplomacy to
set a good example for a fragile Russian democracy, urge the president not to base U. S.-Russian relations on per-sonal
ties with Russian president Vladimir Putin, insist that no commitments affecting U. S. security in regions near
Russia are undertaken by the president without congressional approval,
ensure that the United States not make security promises to the
nations of Eastern Europe or Central Asia that it might not be able to fulfill,
urge the president to proceed cautiously on the issue of Kalinin-grad,
and oppose any action that suggests that the United States believes
Russia belongs to a different civilization.
When the Bush administration took office, it was very suspicious of
Russian president Vladimir Putin. '' Anyone who tells you they have Putin
figured out is blowing smoke, '' President Bush told Time magazine during
the presidential campaign. But after a few months in office, his view
changed. '' I want to look him in the eye, '' Bush said shortly before their
first meeting, '' and see if I can see his soul. ''
President Bush liked what he saw, and the two leaders have developed
what appears to be a remarkably close personal relationship that seems
to be based on absolute trust. '' I looked the man in the eye and shook
his hand, '' Bush said with regard to a strategic arms agreement. '' And if
we need to write it down on a piece of paper, I'll be glad to do that. ''
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Unquestionably, good relations between leaders are to be preferred to
bad relations. In addition, the support the Russian government has given
to the United States since the terrorist attack in September 2001 has been
extremely helpful and a marked change fromthe hostility that characterized
relations during the Cold War. Yet Putin is not the first Russian leader
to turn toward the West. It may be significant that Putin has a portrait of
Peter the Great in his office. Peter also thought that Russia should learn
from the West, but Peter was an autocrat whose reform effort, observes
historian Bernard Pares, '' grew out of the needs of his army. ''
Russia is no longer a superpower, but it still controls a vast landmass
in the center of Eurasia. Although Russia no longer has a global reach,
it still exercises considerable influence along its periphery. And it is along
that periphery that we must look to understand Russian foreign policy.
Shifting Alliances
With the end of the Cold War, the putative object of both East and
West was to heal the division of Europe and, indeed, of the world. Former
Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev spoke of a '' common European
home, '' while Western officials spoke of a '' Europe whole and free. ''
But disagreements about how that objective was to be achieved and about
the future role of NATO soon emerged. For most observers, the abolition
of NATO at the moment of its triumph was unthinkable. Leaving it as it
was similarly appeared unthinkable, because that would simply preserve
the division of Europe that characterized the Cold War. By default, then,
the only remaining option was expansion.
Expansion, however, raised the question of Russia's potential member-ship.
The Clinton administration left this possibility open, but others fore-closed
it. Writing in the Washington Post in May 2002, Czech president
Vaclav Havel stressed that '' it would make no sense to consider Russia
for membership in NATO, even though its location and civilization are
not far distant from the West. '' But to say that Russia is not eligible for
NATO membership because its civilization is not quite close enough to
ours is to risk a dangerous reaction. '' Ukraine is not a western country
but belongs to Slavic civilization and Orthodox culture, '' argues Victor
Chernomyrdin, the former Russian prime minister who is now ambassador
to Ukraine. '' Nobody awaits either Russia or Ukraine in the West. They'll
try to be friends with us, they'll promise a lot to us, but they'll never
declare us as their natural partners. ''
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The danger is not just to the reunification of Europe. A true Russian-NATO
partnership, Havel has insisted, '' can be built only when each of
the parties knows its true identity and when neither attempts to dictate
how the other should define itself, or whom the other may or may not
accept as allies. '' But if we tell the Russians they cannot be our allies,
we are in effect telling them to find allies elsewhere. In 2002, at the same
time Russia was being admitted as a '' junior partner'' in NATO, it was
also consolidating relations with its other big neighbors. On June 5 at a
summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, China, and four Central Asian countries
(Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) signed the Charter of
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, solidifying its formal international
legal status. In addition, the Indian ambassador to Russia indicated that
his country was interested in joining the SCO, an overture that Putin said
was '' positively viewed'' by Russia.
When the idea of a Russian-Chinese-Indian triangle was broached sev-eral
years ago, it was widely ridiculed as unrealistic. Now that assessment
might have to be reexamined. Besides expanding the role of the SCO,
Putin was also a principal force behind the creation of a new Eurasian
security organization, the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Build-ing
Measures in Asia, which had its inaugural meeting in Kazakhstan in
June 2002.
Thus, at the same time Putin was convincing most experts of his tilt
toward the West, he was quietly expanding Russia's diplomatic clout in
other directions. Significantly, only Russia has a seat at the table of all
three organizations: NATO, SCO, and CICA. Given the limited resources
he has to work with, Putin has demonstrated remarkable diplomatic skill.
Russia and China
An example of that skill can be found in the Sino-Russian relationship,
especially in the aftermath of President Bush's decision in December 2001
to withdraw from the ABM Treaty. At the time, the absence of any
thunderous denunciations from Moscow or Beijing was taken as proof
that they were '' yielding to pressure. '' At the end of the month, however,
the Itar-Tass news agency reported that Russia had agreed to sell China
two Sovremenny destroyers, which are armed with cruise missiles designed
to counter the U. S. Navy's Aegis air defense systems. '' The US withdrawal
from the ABM treaty made the mainland feel even more vulnerable.
Beijing was forced to move closer to Russia, '' wrote Lau Nai-keung, a
delegate to China's People's Political Consultative Conference.
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Since then, Russia's arms sales to China have continued. Last June
Russian sources reported the sale of eight Kilo-class diesel submarines,
which will be armed with long-range anti-ship cruise missiles. Even more
significant is the sale of the naval variant of 30 advanced Sukhoi fighters.
'' The Americans won't be roaming in the Taiwan Strait [after this deal], ''
observed Konstantin Makiyenko, deputy head of the Center for Analysis
of Strategies and Technologies. People who would argue that Russia has
made a decisive turn toward the West and abandoned the idea of an
Eastern counterweight to NATO and the United States must explain these
arms sales and the statements justifying them.
Central Asia and the Caucasus
Central Asia and the Caucasus is a region in which the interests of Russia,
China, India, and the United States intersect, especially after September 11.
Although many observers were surprised by Putin's acceptance of the
U. S. presence in the region, he evidently viewed the American war against
terrorism as support for Russian strategic objectives, since Russia had
been supporting the Northern Alliance against the Taliban. Even so, Russia
(and China as well) has indicated that it would be less willing to accept
a permanent U. S. military presence in the area.
One major concern here is the struggle for oil routes. The United States
has pushed for a pipeline from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Ceyhan, Turkey, in
order to bypass both Russia and Iran. This initiative has provoked some
irritation in Moscow, which may view the U. S. presence with more suspi-cion
if it becomes extended. According to Alexei Arbatov, deputy head
of the Russian parliament's defense affairs committee, '' if relations develop
toward struggle for influence and control over oil and natural gas pipelines
in the region, the U. S. presence would be very bothersome. ''
A special problem exists in Georgia, which Russia accuses of sheltering
terrorists from Chechnya. It is unclear how much authority the Georgian
government exercises in the border region, and the U. S. government has
provided some military assistance to Georgia to help it cope. Russian-Georgian
relations have been exceptionally strained since the breakup of
the Soviet Union, and the United States needs to tread carefully here.
Russia and Georgia will be neighbors forever, while the United States is
far away with a lot of other issues demanding attention and resources.
Since it is unlikely that the United States will be in Georgia forever,
Washington should be careful about making promises it will not be able
to keep.
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Kaliningrad
If the triangular diplomacy among Russia, China, and India bears watch-ing,
so does a growing problem in the West: Kaliningrad. In the aftermath
of World War II, East Prussia was divided between Poland and the Soviet
Union. Although that arrangement was supposed to be temporary, over
time it became effectively permanent. With the disintegration of the Soviet
Union, Kaliningrad became separated from the rest of Russia, much as
Alaska is separated from the contiguous 48 states.
So far this situation has not presented any particular obstacles. The
expansion of NATO and the European Union to include the Baltic States
presents a problem, however, because Kaliningrad would then be effec-tively
cut off from the rest of Russia. '' What we hear today is worse than
the cold war, because it divides the sovereignty of Russia, '' President
Putin declared last June with regard to the visa requirements the EU would
impose on Russian citizens wishing to cross EU territory to travel from
Kaliningrad to the rest of Russia. '' We will never agree to the division
of Russia's sovereignty. '' Similarly, Russian defense minister Sergei
Ivanov told a Finnish newspaper that if the Baltic States join NATO,
'' Russia will then be forced to review not only its own military positions
but also the entire spectrum of international relations, both with the alliance
as a whole and with the mentioned Baltic States. ''
Such statements should be viewed in the context of the strategic triangle
already discussed. Moreover, the emotional content of the Kaliningrad
issue should not be dismissed. In this regard, the EU visa requirement
seems to resonate even more than NATO expansion, at least for the
moment. '' We are not savages here. We are part of European civilization, ''
exclaims Vitaly P. Zhdanov, director of Kaliningrad's economic depart-ment.
Although there is little the United States can do about the EU's
attitude, it should be mindful that Putin can use these issues to drive
wedges among the Western countries: indeed, last summer Putin won a
more accommodating stance during a meeting with French president
Jacques Chirac. Given the growing number of issues dividing the United
States from its European allies, such a policy could prove very attractive.
Public Diplomacy
In a speech to the Foreign Ministry on January 26, 2001, Putin expressed
dissatisfaction with its efforts in the area of public diplomacy. A campaign
of public diplomacy is designed to go over the heads of political leaders
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and reach the people themselves. The Bush administration itself has empha-sized
the need for public diplomacy, establishing an Office of Global
Communications in the White House to coordinate U. S. efforts. But
whereas the American effort seems designed primarily to affect public
opinion in Arab countries, the intent of the Russian effort appears to be
to influence Western public opinion.
A good example of this approach occurred immediately after President
Bush announced that the United States would withdraw from the ABM
Treaty. On December 15, 2001, the Financial Times published an interview
with Putin, in which he indicated he would have been willing to renegotiate
the treaty but the United States refused. Putin stressed that the United
States was within its rights and that Bush never misled him, but he indicated
that the issue was not a bilateral one between the United States and Russia.
'' I believe the US-Russian bilateral relationship is of major importance
for our two nations. But it is also of great importance, taking into account
that these are two leading nuclear powers in the world, for overall interna-tional
security, '' he stressed. '' If relations between Russia and the West,
Russia and NATO, Russia and the US continue to develop in the spirit
of partnership and even of alliance, then no harm will be done. ''
Or put it another way, if the other countries of the West do not correct
the American tendency toward unilateralism, then harm could be done.
In phrasing the issue in this way, Putin exploits the unease already evident
in some European circles. '' Tension and distrust now are the most impor-tant
factors in America's relations with its European allies, '' William Pfaff
stressed in the International Herald Tribune last July. '' Sooner or later
the European powers will have to deal with the consequences of U. S.
unilateralism. '' Perhaps Putin's remarks were not meant to take advantage
of this situation, but given his knowledge of European politics— he lived
in East Germany during the Cold War and speaks fluent German— some
thought should be given to the possibility that his policy is more calculating.
Russia and Western Civilization
If some of the trends mentioned here are troubling, others are more
reassuring. For example, Putin has vigorously denounced the rise of right-wing
nationalist and anti-Semitic movements in Russia. He has pointed
out that nationalism and intolerance also affect '' so-called developed
democracies, '' and in using that language he put forth a challenge to the
United States to be true to our democratic principles. It is a challenge the
Congress needs to take up, not only because it is fair, but because it
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resonates with the history of the 20th century. In the interwar years, the
Western democracies did not pay sufficient attention to the erosion of
democracy in Germany. We should not make that mistake again, and to
the extent our example establishes a model to be emulated, we should be
conscious of the example we set.
In this regard, particular attention should be paid to the tendency to
divide Europe along civilizational lines. '' Europe ends where Western
Christianity ends and Islam and Orthodoxy begin, '' writes Samuel P.
Huntington in The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World
Order. '' The identification of Europe with Western Christendom provides
a clear criterion for the admission of new members to Western organiza-tions.
'' As we have seen, this argument is being used to justify the division
of Europe. Such a division would be nothing short of a tragedy, a betrayal
of the hope generated by the end of the Cold War after a century of
bloody conflict. Americans, in particular, should be aware of the danger.
We should recognize from our own history the hypocrisy of asserting that
there are two parts to Europe's bus, that Russia and other Orthodox
countries belong in the back of the bus— which, of course, is just as good
as the front, only different. No people with any dignity or intelligence
will accept this argument, and although no American administration has
adopted this position, Congress should be aware that it is influencing the
debate over NATO expansion with potentially catastrophic consequences.
First, for most Russians it would signify a betrayal. As far as they are
concerned, they ended the Cold War not because they were defeated
militarily but because they realized communism was inherently flawed.
The Warsaw Pact was abolished and they withdrew their military forces
to their own territory, expecting their actions would be met with goodwill.
For NATO to reciprocate by expanding to Russia's borders— especially
if it excludes Russia from equal status because it supposedly belongs to a
different (read inferior) civilization— is bound to enrage ordinary Russians.
Congress, if it is asked to approve further NATO expansion, should be
aware of this issue and take it into consideration in its deliberations.
Second, Congress should be aware that alliances provoke the formation
of counteralliances; that, after all, is the logic of the balance of power.
The SCO and the CICA have not received the attention they deserve. To
be sure, they are not alliances like NATO, but they could form the basis
of something more if Russia feels alienated.
Perhaps most important of all, however, Congress has to make it clear
that diplomacy is not the exclusive domain of the executive branch. As
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Alexander Hamilton wrote in Federalist no. 75, '' The history of human
conduct does not warrant that exalted opinion of human virtue which
would make it wise in a nation to commit interests of so delicate and
momentous a kind, as those which concern its intercourse with the rest
of the world, to the sole disposal of a magistrate created and circumstanced
as would be a President of the United States. '' And history has continued
to vindicate Hamilton's argument. '' I got the impression that here was a
man who could be relied upon when he had given his word, '' British
prime minister Neville Chamberlain wrote his sister after meeting Adolf
Hitler in September 1938. It did not take long for Chamberlain to be
disabused of his optimism.
We can hope that President Bush has more insight into the human soul
than Chamberlain did, but as Hamilton pointed out, the security and safety
of the United States cannot be left to the discretion of a single individual.
In addition, personal diplomacy raises the question of what endures after
the persons leave the scene. Agreements between countries should have
some institutional arrangements binding the countries, and agreements
between individuals, even if well meant, do not meet that standard. Even
worse, they risk recreating the era in which the state was identified with
a single individual, or sovereign.
'' In republican government, the legislative authority necessarily predom-inates''
over the executive, James Madison wrote in Federalist no. 51. One
of the most disturbing elements in Russia now is the effective sidelining of
the legislature. Russian history resonates with tragedies flowing from the
excessive concentration of power in the hands of a single individual, and
it is in the fundamental American interest to ensure that this situation is
not repeated. Consequently, it is critical that Congress set an example for
Russia— and, indeed, for the rest of the world's aspiring democracies—
of how a republican government operates. It is no exaggeration to say
that the future of democracy itself hangs in the balance here. Congress,
therefore, must insist that the executive be accountable to the legislature
for its activities and, above all, that any agreement affecting the security
of the American people be submitted publicly for its approval.
Suggested Readings
Haass, Richard N. '' U. S.-Russian Relations in the Post-Post-Cold War World. '' June 1, 2002, www. state. gov/ s/ p/ rem/ 10643.htm.
Kober, Stanley. '' The Great Game, Round 2: Washington's Misguided Support for the Baku-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline. '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 63, October
31, 2000.
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. '' NATO Expansion Flashpoint No. 3: Kaliningrad. '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 46, February 11, 1998.
Lieven, Anatol. Ukraine & Russia. Washington: U. S. Institute of Peace, 1999. Putin, Vladimir. Speech by President of the Russian Federation V. V. Putin at the Russian
Federation Ministry of Foreign Affairs, January 26, 2001, http:// president. kremlin. ru/ withflash/ appears/ 2001/ 01/ 26. shtml (in Russian).
Sagdeev, Roald, and Susan Eisenhower, eds. Islam and Central Asia. Washington: Center for Political and Strategic Studies, 2000.
Trenin, Dmitri. The End of Eurasia. Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2001.
Tishkov, Valery. Ethnicity, Nationalism and Conflict in and after the Soviet Union. London: Sage, 1997.
—Prepared by Stanley Kober
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60. Relations with Cuba
Congress should
repeal the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity (Libertad,
or Helms-Burton) Act of 1996; repeal the Cuban Democracy (Torricelli) Act of 1992;
restore the policy of granting Cuban refugees political asylum
in the United States; eliminate or privatize Radio and TV Marti;
end all trade sanctions on Cuba and allow U. S. citizens and
companies to visit and establish businesses in Cuba as they see fit; and
move toward the normalization of diplomatic relations with
Cuba.
In 1970, 17 of 26 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean had
authoritarian regimes. Today, only Cuba has a dictatorial regime. To be
sure, the transition to market-oriented democracies, which protect individ-ual
liberty and property rights under the rule of law, is far from complete
in any of the region's countries and has suffered setbacks in some of
them. Economic sanctions have not been responsible for the general shift
toward liberalization, however. They have, in fact, failed to bring about
democratic regimes anywhere in the hemisphere, and Cuba has been no
exception. Indeed, Cuba is the one country in the hemisphere against
which the U. S. government has persistently and actively used a full eco-nomic
embargo as its main policy tool in an attempt to compel a democratic
transformation.
The failure of sanctions against Cuba should come as no surprise since
sanctions are notorious for their unintended consequences— harming those
they are meant to help. In Cuba, Fidel Castro is the last person to feel
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the pain caused by the U. S. measures. If sanctions failed to dislodge
the military regime in Haiti, the poorest and most vulnerable country in
the region, it is difficult to believe that they could be successful in
Cuba.
A Cold War Relic
Sanctions against Cuba were first authorized under the Foreign Assis-tance
Act of 1961, passed by the 87th Congress. In 1962 President John
F. Kennedy issued an executive order implementing the trade embargo
as a response to Castro's expropriation of American assets and his decision
to offer the Soviet Union a permanent military base and an intelligence
post just 90 miles off the coast of Florida at the height of the Cold War.
Castro's decision confirmed Cuba as the Soviet Union's main ally in the
Western Hemisphere.
For three decades, Cuba was a threat to U. S. national security. Not
only did Cuba export Marxist-Leninist revolutions to Third World
countries (most notably, Angola and Nicaragua), but, more important, it
served as a base for Soviet intelligence operations and allowed Soviet
naval vessels port access rights. However, with the collapse of the Soviet
Union and the subsequent end of Soviet subsidies to Cuba in the early
1990s, that threat virtually ceased to exist. (There is always the possibility
that Castro will do something reckless.) With the demise of the secur-ity
threat posed by Cuba, all valid justifications for the embargo also
disappeared.
Trade sanctions against Cuba, however, were not lifted. The embargo
was instead tightened in 1992 with the passage of the Cuban Democracy
(Torricelli) Act, a bill that former president George Bush signed into law.
The justification for it was not national security interests but the Castro
regime's form of government and human rights abuses. That change of
focus was reflected in the language of the act, the first finding of which
was Castro's '' consistent disregard for internationally accepted standards
of human rights and for democratic values. ''
In 1996 Congress passed the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity
(Libertad) Act, a bill that President Clinton had threatened to veto but
signed into law in the aftermath of the downing of two U. S. civilian planes
by Cuban fighter jets in international airspace.
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The Unintended Consequences of a Flawed Policy
The Libertad Act, better known as the Helms-Burton Act, named after
its sponsors Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N. C.) and Rep. Dan Burton (R-Ind.), is
an ill-conceived law. It grants U. S. citizens whose property was expropri-ated
by Castro the right to sue in U. S. courts foreign companies and
citizens '' trafficking'' in that property (Title III). That right— not granted
to U. S. citizens who may have lost property in other countries— is problem-atic
because it essentially extends U. S. jurisdiction to the results of events
that occurred on foreign territory.
By imposing sanctions on foreign companies profiting from property
confiscated by the Castro regime, the Helms-Burton Act seeks to discour-age
investment in Cuba. But fears that foreign investment there, which is
much lower than official figures claim, will save the communist system
from its inherent flaws are unfounded; significant capital flows to Cuba
will not occur unless and until market reforms are introduced. While
Helms-Burton may have slowed investment in Cuba, U. S. allies (in particu-lar,
Canada, Mexico, and members of the European Union) have not
welcomed that attempt to influence their foreign policy by threat of U. S.
sanctions. Consequently, they have repeatedly threatened to impose retalia-tory
sanctions and to take the United States to the World Trade
Organization.
In May 1998 the Clinton administration and the European Union reached
a tentative agreement that would exclude citizens of EU countries from
Titles III and IV (denying entry visas to the executives of companies
'' trafficking'' in confiscated property) of the Helms-Burton Act in
exchange for guarantees from the EU not to subsidize investments in
expropriated properties. President Bush has continued the policy of repeat-edly
waiving Title III of the act. But because only the Congress can
repeal Titles III and IV, U. S.-EU trade relations remain uncertain, and the
possibility that the EU will impose retaliatory sanctions or take the United
States to the WTO remains. That confrontation has risked poisoning U. S.
relations with otherwise friendly countries that are far more important
than Cuba to the economic well-being and security of the United States.
It also serves to divert attention, both inside and outside Cuba, from the
island's internal crisis.
Moreover, any increase in Washington's hostility would only benefit the
hard-liners within the Cuban government. Indeed, the embargo continues to
be the best— and now the only— excuse that Castro has for his failed
policies. As a Hoover Institution report on Cuba stated, Castro knows that
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'' the embargo to some degree keeps him from becoming just another in
a centuries-long string of failed Latin American dictators. . . . Nothing
would come so close to 'killing' him while he is still alive as lifting the
embargo. ''
Although the Soviet Union provided Cuba with more than $100 billion
in subsidies and credits during their three-decade relationship, Cuban
officials, who have estimated the cumulative cost of the embargo at more
than $40 billion, incessantly condemn U. S. policies for causing the meager
existence of the Cuban people. Elizardo Sa´nchez Santa Cruz, a leading
dissident in Cuba, has aptly summed up that strategy: ''[ Castro] wants to
continue exaggerating the image of the external enemy which has been
vital for the Cuban Government during decades, an external enemy which
can be blamed for the failure of the totalitarian model implanted here. ''
The more supporters of the embargo stress the importance of sanctions
in bringing Castro down, the more credible becomes Castro's claim that
the United States is responsible for Cuba's misery.
As long as Castro can point to the United States as an external enemy,
he will be successful in barring dissent, justifying control over the economy
and the flow of information, and stirring up nationalist and anti-U. S.
sentiments in Cuba.
Cuba Must Determine Its Own Destiny
Perhaps the biggest shortcoming of U. S. policy toward Cuba is its false
assumption that democratic capitalism can somehow be forcibly exported
from Washington to Havana. That assumption is explicitly stated in the
Helms-Burton Act, the first purpose of which is '' to assist the Cuban
people in regaining their freedom and prosperity, as well as in joining the
community of democratic countries that are flourishing in the Western
Hemisphere. ''
But the shift toward democratic capitalism that began in the Western
Hemisphere two decades ago has little to do with Washington's efforts
to export democracy. Rather, it has to do with Latin America's realization
that previous policies and regimes had failed to provide self-sustaining
growth and increasing prosperity. The region's ability to benefit from a
market system will depend in large part on its success in sustaining market
reforms, which, again, will depend entirely on Latin American countries,
not on the United States.
Now that the Cold War has ended, Cuba no longer poses a credible
threat to the United States. Whether Cuba has a totalitarian or a democratic
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regime, though important, is not a vital U. S. national security concern.
The transformation of Cuban society, as difficult as that may be, should
be left to the Cuban people, not to the U. S. government. As William F.
Buckley Jr. has stated, '' If the Cuban people overthrow Mr. Castro, that
is the end for which devoutly we pray. But if they do not, he is their
problem. ''
Furthermore, there is little historical evidence, in Cuba or elsewhere,
that tightening the screws on Cuba will produce an anti-Castro rebellion.
Cato scholar James Dorn has observed that '' the threat of using trade
restrictions to advance human rights is fraught with danger . . . [because]
it undermines the market dynamic that in the end is the best instrument
for creating wealth and preserving freedom. ''
Even though Cuba— unlike other communist countries, such as China or
Vietnam, with which the United States actively trades— has not undertaken
meaningful market reforms, an open U. S. trade policy is likely to be more
subversive of its system than is an embargo. Proponents of the Cuban
embargo vastly underestimate the extent to which increased foreign trade
and investment can undermine Cuban communism even if that business
is conducted with state entities.
Cuban officialdom appears to be well aware of that danger. For example,
Cuba's opening of its tourism industry to foreign investment has been
accompanied by measures that restrict ordinary Cubans from visiting
foreign hotels and tourist facilities. As a result, Cubans have come to
resent their government for what is known as '' tourism apartheid. '' In
recent years, Cuban officials have also issued increasing warnings against
corruption, indicating the regime's fear that unofficial business dealings,
especially with foreigners, may weaken allegiance to the government and
even create vested interests that favor more extensive market openings.
As the Hoover Institution study concluded, '' In time, increasing amounts
[of expanded tourism, trade, and investment] would go beyond the state,
and although economics will not single-handedly liberate Cuba, it may
contribute some to that end. This is so, in part, because the repressive
Cubans within the state apparatus are subject to influences that can tilt
their allegiances in positive ways. ''
Further undercutting the regime's authority is the widespread dollar
economy that has emerged as a consequence of foreign presence and
remittances from abroad, estimated at $800 million annually, which the
Helms-Burton Act had banned until the spring of 1998. Today about 50
percent of the Cuban population has access to dollars. The dollarization
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of the Cuban economy— a phenomenon now legalized by the Cuban
regime as a result of its inability to control it— has essentially eliminated
the regime's authority to dictate the country's monetary policy.
Replacing the all-encompassing state with one that allows greater space
for voluntary interaction requires strengthening elements of civil society,
that is, groups not dependent on the state. That development is more likely
to come about in an environment of increased interaction with outside
groups than in an environment of increased isolation and state control.
At present, there are signs that civil society is slowly emerging in Cuba,
despite Castro's attempts to suppress it. For example, the Catholic Church,
the main recipient of humanitarian aid from international nongovernmental
organizations, has experienced a resurgence since the Archbishop of
Havana was made a Cardinal. And, since the visit by Pope John Paul II in
January 1998, which clearly established the Church as the only nationwide
nongovernmental institution, it has pressed to expand its role in education
and social work.
Finally, there are the small-business owners who are able to earn a living
in the small but growing nonstate sector. The 160, 000 cuentapropistas, or
'' workers on their own account, '' are approximately 4 percent of the total
workforce; half of them are working with government-approved licenses
and the other half in the informal sector. According to Philip Peters,
vice president of the Lexington Institute, those workers '' are dramatically
improving their standard of living and supplying goods and services while
learning the habits of independent actors in competitive markets. '' For
instance, private farmers bring 85 percent of the produce sold in markets
although they cultivate only 15 percent of the arable land. And, because
most independent workers are in the service industries (mostly restaurant
and food service), they would greatly benefit from the presence of Ameri-cans
visiting for business or pleasure.
Cuban exiles should also be allowed to participate in the transformation
of Cuban society. However, their participation need not require active
involvement of the U. S. government. Thus, Radio and TV Marti, govern-ment
entities that broadcast to Cuba, should be privatized or closed down.
If the exile community believes that those stations are a useful resource
in their struggle against the Castro regime, they have the means— there
are no legal impediments— to finance such an operation.
A New Cuba Policy Based on American Principles
Washington's policies toward Cuba should be consistent with traditional
American principles. First, the United States should restore the practice
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of granting political asylum to Cuban refugees. The 1994 and 1995 immi-gration
accords between the Clinton administration and the Cuban govern-ment
have turned the United States into Castro's de jure partner in oppress-ing
those Cubans who risk their lives to escape repression. The '' wet feet,
dry feet'' policy, which grants political asylum to Cuban refugees who
make it to the U. S. shore on their own and forces the U. S. Coast Guard
to return to Cuba those refugees that it picks up at sea, should be eliminated.
Instead, the U. S. government should grant political asylum to all Cubans
who escape the island.
There is no reason to believe that Cuban refugees would not continue
to help the U. S. economy as they always have. The 1980 boatlift, in
which 120,000 Cuban refugees reached U. S. shores, proved a boon to
the economy of South Florida. In addition, since the Cuban-American
community has repeatedly demonstrated its ability and desire to provide
for refugees until they can provide for themselves, such a policy need not
cost U. S. taxpayers.
Second, the U. S. government should protect its own citizens' inalienable
rights and recognize that free trade is itself a human right. As Dorn says:
'' The supposed dichotomy between the right to trade and human rights
is a false one.... Asmoral agents, individuals necessarily claim the rights
to liberty and property in order to live fully and to pursue their interests
in a responsible manner. '' In the case of Cuba, U. S. citizens and companies
should be allowed to decide for themselves— as they are in the case of
dozens of countries around the world whose political and human rights
records are less than admirable— whether and how they should trade
with it.
Third, U. S. policy toward Cuba should focus on national security inter-ests,
not on transforming Cuban society or micromanaging the affairs of
a transitional government as current law obliges Washington to do. That
means lifting the embargo and establishing with Cuba the types of diplo-matic
ties that the United States maintains with other states, even dictatorial
ones, that do not threaten its national security. Those measures, especially
the ending of current sanctions, will ensure a more peaceful and smooth
transition in Cuba. After all, as former Reagan National Security Council
member Roger Fontaine explains, '' It is not in our interest to acquire
another economic basket case in the Caribbean. ''
Unfortunately, strengthening the economic embargo has left the United
States in a very uncomfortable position. Washington has depleted its policy
options for dealing with future crises in Cuba or provocations from Castro.
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Given the absence of other options and with the prospect of chaos on
America's doorstep, U. S. officials will be under tremendous pressure to
intervene militarily. Some people claim that a relaxation of the embargo
would deprive the United States of its most effective tool for effecting
change in Cuba, but tightening the embargo has left the United States
with only its most reckless one.
The Tide Is Turning
Since the Pope's visit to Cuba in early 1998 and the Elia´n Gonza´lez
incident— the shipwrecked six-year-old lost his mother at sea and was
rescued by Florida fishermen during Thanksgiving weekend of 1999—
U. S. businesspeople, policymakers, and the U. S. population at large have
shown a growing interest in Cuba. For instance, in early 1998 the U. S.
Chamber of Commerce joined religious and humanitarian groups to create
a coalition to support the end of restrictions on the sale of food and
medicine to Cuba. In the fall of 1998, 24 senators, led by Sen. John
Warner (R-Va.), and several foreign policy experts, including former
secretaries of state Henry Kissinger, Lawrence Eagleburger, and George
Shultz, unsuccessfully asked President Clinton to appoint a bipartisan
congressional commission to reevaluate U. S. policy toward Cuba. More
than 3,400 U. S. business leaders visited the country in 2000.
In the closing days of its second session, the 106th Congress passed a
measure as part of its agricultural funding bill that allows cash sales of
food and medicine to Cuba but prohibits private-sector financing from
the United States. It is doubtful that the measure will create a significant
new market for U. S. farmers, as proponents of the bill desire, because
Cuba is both broke and uncreditworthy.
The 106th Congress also turned the travel ban to Cuba, which had been
implemented by executive order, into law. Turning that ban into law
makes it more difficult to revoke the restrictions that deny the majority
of Americans their right to travel freely. Already, about 200,000 Americans
per year travel to Cuba, including 80,000 who do so without the explicit
authorization of the U. S. government. If the travel restrictions were to be
lifted completely, the number of American citizens traveling to Cuba
would certainly increase, as would their contacts with Cuban citizens who
work outside the state sector.
Indeed, in 2001 and 2002, respectively, the House of Representatives
voted 240– 186 and 262– 167 to overturn the ban on traveling to Cuba.
During that time, an increasing number of politicians, including governors
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and U. S. senators, visited the island. In May 2002 former president Jimmy
Carter traveled to Havana and called for an end to the trade and travel
embargo. Underlining the liberalizing potential of U. S. travel to Cuba,
Carter used his visit to draw Cuba's national attention to the Varela project,
a Cuban democratization initiative that had thus far received no play in
the official media. Signs of increasing political dissatisfaction with the
embargo show that the tide of opinion is clearly changing.
Conclusion
Sen. Robert G. Torricelli (D-N. J.) offered the following justification
for U. S. policy after Helms-Burton was passed by Congress: '' Different
policies might have worked, might have been taken. But the die has been
cast. Years ago we decided on this strategy and we are in the end game
now. It is too late to change strategy. '' But even many people who may
agree with Torricelli's position recognize, as Cuban exile Carlos Alberto
Montaner does, that '' the embargo, at this stage of the game, is probably
a strategic error, political clumsiness from Washington which provides
Castro with an alibi. '' In fact, it is not too late to change strategy and the
'' endgame'' may yet take years to complete. U. S. clumsiness, unfortu-nately,
increases the likelihood of a violent Cuban transition into which
the United States would unnecessarily be drawn.
A better policy would recognize that, while Castro may be a clever
political manipulator, his economic forecasting and planning have been
dismal. Supporters of the embargo casually assume that Castro wants an
end to the embargo because he believes that step would solve his economic
problems. More likely, Castro fears the lifting of the U. S. sanctions. It is
difficult to believe, for example, that he did not calculate a strong U. S.
response when he ordered the attack on two U. S. planes in early 1996.
It is time for Washington to stop playing into Castro's hands and instead
pull the rug out from under him by ending the embargo.
Suggested Readings
Clarke, Jonathan G., and William Ratliff. '' Report from Havana: Time for a Reality Check on U. S. Policy toward Cuba. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 418, October
31, 2001. Council on Foreign Relations. '' U. S.-Cuban Relations in the 21st Century. '' Report of
an Independent Task Force Sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations. New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1999.
Flake, Jeff. '' Will U. S. Trade with Cuba Promote Freedom or Subsidize Tyranny? '' Remarks at Cato Policy Forum, July 25, 2002, www. cato. org– events– 020725pf. html.
Glassman, James K. '' No Sanctions, No Castro. '' Washington Post, January 20, 1998.
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Human Rights Watch. '' Cuba's Repressive Machinery: Human Rights Forty Years after the Revolution. '' New York: Human Rights Watch, 1999.
Montaner, Carlos A. '' Cuba Today: The Slow Demise of Castroism. '' In Essays in English Language. Madrid: Fundacio ´n para el ana´lisis y los estudios sociales, 1996.
Peters, Philip. '' Islands of Enterprise: Cuba's Emerging Small Business Sector. '' Arling-ton, Va.: Alexis de Tocqueville Institution, 1997.
. '' A Policy toward Cuba That Serves U. S. Interests. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 384, November 2, 2000.
Ratliff, William, and Roger Fontaine. '' A Strategic Flip-Flop on the Caribbean: Lift the Embargo on Cuba. '' Hoover Institution Essays in Public Policy, no. 100 (2000).
Va´squez, Ian. '' Washington's Dubious Crusade for Hemispheric Democracy. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 201, January 12, 1994.
—Prepared by L. Jacobo Rodri´guez and Ian Va´squez
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Congress should
recognize that the relative openness of American markets is
an important source of our economic vitality and that remaining trade barriers are a drag on growth and prosperity;
move the focus of U. S. trade policy away from '' reciprocity''
and '' level playing fields'' toward commitment here and abroad to free-trade principles;
take unilateral action to reform U. S. protectionist policies;
refrain from exerting protectionist pressure on U. S. negotiators
in trade negotiations, especially with respect to (1) labor and environmental standards and (2) antidumping and other trade
remedy laws; enact implementing legislation for market-opening trade
agreements; maintain support for the World Trade Organization as a body
for settling disputes; avoid using trade deficits as an excuse for trade restrictions;
and adjust export control laws to the reality of today's international
marketplace.
Free Trade Means Free Markets
Its opponents like to portray free trade as an ivory-tower theory, but
in fact the case for knocking down trade barriers rests on common sense.
It is now widely recognized that free markets are indispensable to our
prosperity: when people are free to buy, sell, and invest with each other
as they choose, they are able to achieve far more than when governments
attempt to control economic decisions. Given that fact, isn't it obvious
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that free markets work even better when we widen the circle of people
with whom we can buy, sell, and invest? Free trade is nothing more than
the extension of free markets across political boundaries. The benefits of
free trade are the benefits of larger free markets: by multiplying our
potential business partners, we multiply the opportunities for wealth
creation.
From this perspective, it becomes clear that Americans gain from open
U. S. markets even when other countries' markets are relatively closed.
The fact that people in other countries are not as free as they should be
is no reason to restrict the freedom of Americans. When goods, services,
and capital can flow over U. S. borders without interference, Americans
are able to take full advantage of the opportunities of the international
marketplace. They can buy the best and cheapest goods and services the
world has to offer; they can sell to the most promising markets; they can
choose among the best investment opportunities; and they can tap into
the worldwide pool of capital.
Unfortunately, supporters of open markets seldom put their case in
those straightforward terms. Instead, trade liberalization in this country is
identified almost exclusively with international negotiations in which the
removal of U. S. trade barriers is contingent upon the removal of barriers
abroad. Such negotiations convey the impression that exports are the
primary benefit that accrues from international trade and that open markets
at home are the price we pay for greater export opportunities. That impres-sion
is misleading— and ultimately harmful to prospects for continued
liberalization.
The idea that exports are good and imports are harmful is the essence
of the mercantilist fallacy that lies at the root of most protectionist thinking.
That fallacy turns truth on its head: imports are in fact the primary benefit
of trade. Imports give us goods that are cheaper or better than those we
can produce ourselves; exports, which represent production that Americans
do not get to consume, are actually the price we pay for the imports we
enjoy. To the extent that free traders perpetuate the mercantilist fallacy
by endorsing the dogmas of '' reciprocity'' and '' level playing fields, ''
they are helping to foster a political culture that is hostile to open markets.
Opinion polls show that many Americans believe that U. S. openness
to the rest of the world is destroying jobs and eroding living standards.
That such '' globalphobia'' could be so widespread demonstrates that free
traders are doing something wrong. To combat the current intellectual
confusion, supporters of trade liberalization should return to their free-614
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market roots. They need to meet mercantilist misconceptions head-on and
to make the case that free trade is its own reward.
Alternatives to Reciprocity
Adopting a principled free-market approach to trade policy means more
than a change in rhetoric— it means programmatic change as well. Free
traders should expand beyond their traditionally exclusive reliance on
negotiated liberalization and launch a campaign for the unilateral reduction
or outright elimination of U. S. trade barriers— including the antidumping
law, still-high tariffs on many products, import restrictions linked to
agricultural price support programs, the Jones Act ban on foreign shipping
between U. S. ports, the similar denial of cabotage rights to foreign airlines,
and foreign ownership limits for air transport and broadcasting.
Top 10 Most Costly U. S. Trade Barriers
Quota, tariff, and licensing barriers to imported
Textiles and apparel
Domestic maritime transport (Jones Act)
Sugar
Dairy products
Footwear
Frozen fruits, fruit juices, and vegetables
Ball and roller bearings
Watches, clocks, watch cases and parts
Table and kitchenware
Costume jewelry
SOURCE: U. S. International Trade Commission.
Advocating unilateral reform would enable free traders to frame the trade
debate in terms that give them the natural advantage. Instead of always
defending free trade, they could attack its alternative: protectionism in
actual practice. The beneficiaries of protection would be forced to explain
why they deserve their special privileges and why the welfare of other
American businesses and their workers, not to mention consumers, should
be sacrificed on their account. The U. S. sugar protection program, for
example, forces domestic consumers to pay double the world price for
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sugar and costs American sugar-using industries and consumers an esti-mated
$1.9 billion a year. Meanwhile, removal of quotas and tariffs on
imported textiles and apparel would result in a welfare gain to the U. S.
economy of $13 billion, according to the U. S. International Trade
Commission.
Free traders need to reclaim their populist roots. Today trade liberaliza-tion
is often characterized as elitist— padding the bottom lines of Fortune
500 multinationals and confirming the cosmopolitan prejudices of highly
educated professionals. The stereotype is only confirmed by free trade's
reliance on secretive negotiations and international bureaucracies. Unilater-alism
would combat that stereotype by stressing those aspects of the free-trade
cause with the greatest populist appeal: cutting taxes and eliminating
corporate welfare.
Furthermore, unilateral U. S. reforms would do more to encourage liber-alization
abroad than any trade negotiations ever could. The most sweeping
and dramatic moves toward freer trade in recent years— in countries as
diverse as Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Mexico, and India— have occur-red
not at the bargaining table but unilaterally. The leaders of those
countries finally realized that isolation from the world economy was a
recipe for economic stagnation, and therefore they sought to emulate the
relatively open-market policies of more prosperous countries. History
shows, therefore, that the most effective form of international economic
leadership is leadership by example.
Still, pursuing unilateral reform would not mean an end to trade negotia-tions.
International agreements can facilitate the liberalization process by
recruiting export interests to support free trade at home; also, such agree-ments
provide a useful institutional constraint against protectionist back-sliding.
But a new U. S. negotiating posture is needed, one that replaces
demands for reciprocity with commitment to free-trade principles.
Instead of seeking to '' win'' at the negotiating table by '' getting''
more than it '' gives, '' the United States could define some liberalization
objectives— for example, tariff reductions, reforms of antidumping laws,
rules on treatment of foreign investment, rules against protectionist misuse
of health and safety standards, and so on— and offer to elevate its own
unilaterally adopted free-trade policies into binding international commit-ments,
provided that some '' critical mass'' of other countries agreed to
exceed a defined minimum threshold of liberalization.
The United States does not need protectionist policies as '' bargaining
chips'' to exert significant leverage. For example, other countries signed
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on to the 1997 multilateral agreements on telecommunications and financial
services even though the only major U. S. '' concession'' was to lock
in current levels of openness. Also, U. S. involvement in international
agreements is desirable apart from any consideration of '' concessions, ''
since U. S. participation lends legitimacy to an agreement, thereby in-creasing
other countries' confidence in the integrity of each others'
commitments.
Thus, by taking a principled free-market approach, free traders can
revitalize their cause both here and abroad. In particular, they can enjoy
the best of both the unilateral and the multilateral worlds.
Oversight during Trade Negotiations
If Congress were to adopt a policy of unilateral trade liberalization,
the need for the highly contentious '' trade promotion authority'' (TPA)
legislation would disappear. Trade barriers would be eliminated by domes-tic
legislation; afterwards, if the United States were to enter into interna-tional
agreements, no changes in U. S. laws would be necessary.
Until the United States embraces unilateral liberalization, however,
traditional trade negotiations represent the best available vehicle for reform-ing
protectionist policies here and abroad. In such negotiations, the White
House, not Congress, controls the agenda. Under the TPA legislation
signed into law in August 2002, Congress retains the power to vote up
or down on trade agreements presented to it, but the negotiations them-selves
are the responsibility of the executive branch.
Nevertheless, Congress still can exert considerable influence on the
course of trade negotiations. Formally and informally, it consults with
the administration while negotiations are pending and can pressure the
administration to take this or that negotiating position. That pressure can
have either a positive or a negative impact on the prospects for open trade.
Unfortunately, congressional input far too often undermines trade nego-tiations
by pushing the United States to adopt anti-trade negotiating posi-tions.
Congressional pressure has been particularly misdirected in two
areas: (1) labor and environmental standards and (2) U. S. trade remedy
laws.
Many members of Congress have strongly urged the inclusion of agree-ments
on international labor and environmental standards in any new trade
agreements. The whole purpose of trade negotiations, however, is to reduce
governmental interference in cross-border flows of goods and services;
international regulatory mandates on labor and environmental matters
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would threaten to increase government interference in those flows and
thus subvert the basic mission of negotiations. Meanwhile, labor and
environmental standards are implacably opposed by developing countries,
and a U. S. negotiating position that insisted upon such standards could
end up dooming negotiations to fail.
The U. S. trade remedy laws— the antidumping, countervailing duty,
and Section 201 '' safeguard'' laws— and their counterparts in other coun-tries
are badly in need of reform. In particular, the antidumping law, which
purports to focus on '' unfair trade, '' frequently penalizes healthy foreign
competition for business practices routinely engaged in by American com-panies.
While the U. S. antidumping law victimizes American import-using
industries and consumers, foreign copycat laws now target U. S. exporters
with depressing frequency. Indeed, the United States was the third leading
victim of worldwide antidumping actions during the second half of the
1990s.
The prospects for reform here and abroad, however, are dimmed by
vehement congressional opposition to any trade negotiations that might
'' weaken'' U. S. trade laws. That opposition threatens, not just to block
improvements in trade laws, but to prevent market-opening agreements
more generally. Many of our trade partners are demanding changes to
antidumping rules as a condition of any new agreements. If congressional
pressure forces the administration into adopting an obstructionist position
on antidumping, the United States could ultimately pay a grievously heavy
price in lost opportunities to open markets around the world.
Implement Market-Opening Agreements
The 108th Congress should have the opportunity to reduce trade barriers
here and abroad by passing the legislation needed to implement bilateral
free-trade agreements. In particular, agreements with Chile and Singapore
are nearing completion. Those countries are minor trading partners of the
United States, and thus free-trade agreements with them would mark only
modest steps toward more open trade. But they are steps in the right
direction, and Congress should take them as soon as it has the opportunity.
Meanwhile, Congress should encourage the negotiation of free-trade agree-ments
with other, more important trade partners— including, for example,
Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea. In addition, Congress should
support the Bush administration's efforts to negotiate a Free Trade Area
of the Americas.
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Trade Deficits
America's trade deficit is not an economic problem. It is the benign
consequence of a persistent surplus of foreign capital flowing into the
United States. That additional capital has helped to make U. S. workers
more productive, raising living standards above what they would be without
it and building the foundation for future growth.
The underlying cause of the U. S. trade deficit is the fact that domestic
savings in the United States are insufficient to fund all the available
domestic investment opportunities. Any savings gap is filled by a net
inflow of foreign investment. Those foreign funds allow Americans to
buy more than we sell in the international market for goods and services,
resulting in a trade deficit. As long as the pool of domestic savings available
for investment is smaller than the actual level of investment, the United
States will run a trade deficit.
The trade deficit is not the cause of alleged and real problems in the U. S.
economy; rather, it is but a reflection of America's relative attractiveness as
a home for global investment. As a result, the trade deficit tends to expand
and contract along with the overall economy. By virtually every measure,
U. S. economic performance is superior during years in which the trade
deficit rises compared to years in which it shrinks. In contrast to conven-tional
wisdom, rising trade deficits are associated with faster growth, falling
unemployment, and accelerating manufacturing output. That explains why
the U. S. trade deficit rose during the decade-long economic expansion of
the 1990s but then actually shrank somewhat during the recession year
of 2001.
Specifically, there is no credible evidence that expanded trade and
bilateral deficits with such trading partners as Mexico and China cause a
net loss of jobs. In fact, manufacturing output and the volume of imported
goods tend to rise and fall together because both are stimulated by overall
economic growth. During the late 1990s manufacturing output and import
volume rose strongly, while in 2001 a slumping economy caused manufac-turing
output and the volume of imported goods to both plunge. The U. S.
economy actually added a net 707,000 manufacturing jobs during the first
four years of the North American Free Trade Agreement, from 1994
through 1997. Recent job losses, meanwhile, have been caused by slumping
demand, first abroad and more recently at home, not by rising imports or
trade agreements.
The only real sense in which the trade deficit is a threat to the U. S.
economy is its potential effect on public policy. Persistent worries about
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the trade deficit could prompt policymakers to implement a '' cure'' for
the trade deficit, such as higher tariff barriers, that itself could impose
serious damage on the economy. Members of the 108th Congress should
reject the idea of '' balanced trade'' as a policy goal. The best policy
response would be to ignore the U. S. trade deficit and concentrate on
maintaining a strong and open domestic economy that welcomes trade
and foreign investment.
World Trade Organization
The World Trade Organization is at present the primary institutional
support for an open world trading order. In addition to serving as a
forum for ongoing trade negotiations, the WTO and its dispute settlement
procedures uphold a limited but real rule of law in international commerce.
The WTO strongly advances the U. S. national interest in free markets
here and abroad and therefore deserves strong U. S. support.
Congress should support the new Doha Round of WTO negotiations.
If successfully concluded, those talks could open vast new markets for
American exports, raise global welfare by hundreds of billions of dollars,
and help protect American consumers from trade-distorting barriers here
at home.
Complaints that the WTO impinges on U. S. sovereignty are groundless.
The WTO cannot overturn U. S. laws; at most, it can declare that U. S.
laws are inconsistent with international obligations. Whether we honor
those obligations is up to us.
But honor them we should. The principles of market access and nondis-crimination
incorporated in WTO agreements are ones that ought to be
reflected in U. S. policy. When U. S. laws violate those principles, they
ought to be changed. It is a mistake to complain simply because the United
States '' loses'' a case in the WTO; when the dispute settlement process
leads the U. S. government to reform protectionist policies, that is a victory,
not a defeat, for the American people. Furthermore, by heeding '' adverse''
WTO decisions, the United States sets an example for the rest of the
world. We stand to gain when other countries follow the WTO's free-trade
rules. Consequently, we have a large stake in the legitimacy and
credibility of the dispute settlement process, which cannot be sustained if
we selectively disregard WTO rulings.
Congress should show its support for the WTO process by passing
legislation to implement all outstanding adverse WTO rulings as soon as
possible. In particular, Congress should reform U. S. tax laws to eliminate
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the WTO-inconsistent preference for exports under what was formerly
known as the '' foreign sales corporation'' provision. Meanwhile, there
are a large and growing number of outstanding rulings against various
aspects of the U. S. trade laws. To the extent that legislation is needed to
implement those rulings, Congress should move immediately to make the
necessary changes to U. S. law.
In addition, Congress should urge the administration to negotiate
improvements in the WTO dispute settlement process— specifically, by
deemphasizing trade sanctions, or '' retaliation, '' as a tool for enforcing
WTOrulings. Sanctions are a perverse and ineffective method of encourag-ing
other nations to open their markets. By withdrawing '' concessions, ''
sanctions reinforce the faulty notion that our market-opening commitments
are a favor we do other countries contingent on good behavior. In reality,
sanctions punish our own consumers and producers by making the target
list of import goods more expensive or even inaccessible. Meanwhile,
sanctions make the global economy less free and tend to arouse resentment
in our trading partners.
Instead, alternatives to sanctions should be explored. WTO members
found to be out of conformity with agreed-upon rules could instead offer
market-opening '' compensation'' by lowering barriers on other goods, or
they could face suspension of the privilege of using the dispute settlement
mechanism. Such alternative enforcement mechanisms would encourage
compliance with WTO rulings without the perverse side effects of
sanctions.
Export Barriers
Although we complain about other countries' barriers to our exports,
the fact is that many barriers are homegrown. In particular, America's
export control policies remain detached from the realities of the global
marketplace. U. S. companies should be allowed to sell technologies that
are being sold freely elsewhere in the world by their foreign competitors
and the sale of which fails to present a clear danger to U. S. citizens or
world peace. That is not the case today for many products, and much
bureaucratic wrangling is needed before others can be exported.
Sales and investments abroad by U. S. companies are also hindered by
ill-considered foreign policy trade sanctions against Cuba, Burma, and
other countries. The Cuban embargo is discussed in Chapter 60. It should
be noted here, though, that trade sanctions rarely accomplish their foreign
policy objectives. Instead, they end up hurting the very people they are
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designed to help— the unfortunate subjects of despotic regimes. Absent
compelling national security considerations, trade sanctions are almost
always a bad idea. Trade and investment, on the other hand, can improve
the lot of despotism's victims while sowing the seeds of political change.
Suggested Readings
Bailey, Ronald. '' The Looming Trade War over Plant Biotechnology. '' Cato Institute Trade Policy Analysis no. 18, August 1, 2002.
Griswold, Daniel T. '' America's Record Trade Deficit: A Symbol of Economic Strength. '' Cato Institute Trade Policy Analysis no. 13, February 9, 2001.
. '' Trade, Labor and the Environment: How Blue and Green Sanctions Threaten Higher Standards. '' Cato Institute Trade Policy Analysis no. 15, August 2, 2001.
Groombridge, Mark. '' America's Bittersweet Sugar Policy. '' Cato Institute Trade Policy Briefing Paper no. 13, December 4, 2001.
Irwin, Douglas. A. Free Trade under Fire. Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 2002.
Lash, William H. III, and Daniel T. Griswold. '' WTO Report Card II: An Exercise or Surrender of U. S. Sovereignty? '' Cato Institute Trade Policy Briefing Paper no. 9,
May 4, 2000. Lindsey, Brink. Against the Dead Hand: The Uncertain Struggle for Global Capitalism.
New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2002. . '' The U. S. Antidumping Law: Rhetoric versus Reality. '' Cato Institute Trade
Policy Analysis no. 7, August 16, 1999. Lindsey, Brink, and Dan Ikenson. '' Coming Home to Roost: Proliferating Antidumping
Laws and the Growing Threat to U. S. Exports. '' Cato Institute Trade Policy Analysis no. 14, July 30, 2001.
U. S. International Trade Commission. '' The Economic Effects of Significant U. S. Import Restraints. '' June 2002.
All Cato Institute trade studies are available online at www. freetrade. org.
—Prepared by Brink Lindsey
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62. International Tax Competition
Congress should
protect American fiscal sovereignty from foreign tax harmoni-zation
initiatives; require the withdrawal of the proposed IRS regulation that
would mandate the reporting of foreign investors' interest earned in the United States;
oppose anti-competitive legislation that would restrict compa-nies
from reincorporating abroad; and pursue fundamental tax reform, including substantially cutting
the high federal corporate income tax rate and adopting a territorial tax system.
Individual citizens choose where to work, invest, and shop. Businesses
choose where to locate research, production, and headquarters functions.
In making those choices, individuals and businesses consider a range
of economic factors, including the attractiveness of tax regimes. Tax
competition occurs when governments respond to tax changes that occur
in neighboring jurisdictions that affect their ability to attract individuals,
businesses, and investment. Competition can take place between govern-ments
at the national, state, and local levels.
With more open international borders, it is easier for individuals and
businesses to avoid high-tax countries, which makes it more difficult for
governments to enforce oppressive tax burdens. In the past decade, cross-border
investment flows have soared. As a result, U. S. policymakers need
to exercise budget discipline and reduce tax rates in order to attract and
retain investment.
When there is tax competition, countries have a strong incentive to
move away from excessive taxes on capital, including taxes on business
profits, dividends, interest, and capital gains. Businesses and investors can
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quickly respond to differences in capital taxes by reallocating mobile
capital income to lower-tax countries. That phenomenon occurs, for exam-ple,
when U. S. companies consider moving their headquarters abroad to
escape from the high U. S. corporate income tax rate and the complex
'' worldwide'' tax system imposed by the federal government. Tax competi-tion
is a positive force because it creates pressure to reduce economically
damaging taxes, such as the corporate income tax. Reductions in the
corporate tax are also beneficial because it is a hidden tax that ultimately
falls on individuals. Thus reducing the corporate tax moves the tax system
toward more transparency and helps taxpayers to better measure the size
and the cost of government.
Tax competition provides incentives to policymakers to implement more
efficient budget policies and eliminate unneeded spending programs. Tax
competition pushes tax rates down, allows citizens to enjoy more of
their earnings, and creates a business environment more conducive to
entrepreneurship and economic growth.
Tax competition is illustrated by the substantial reductions in personal
and corporate income tax rates in nearly every industrial country since
the U. S. tax cuts of the 1980s. The average top individual income tax
rate for members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development fell from 55 percent in 1986 to 41 percent by 2000, and
the average top corporate tax rate for members fell from 41 percent in
1986 to 32 percent by 2000.
Also, capital gains taxes, withholding taxes, and wealth taxes have
been cut in numerous countries. While politicians in many countries have
become more pro-market in recent decades, they have also been pushed
to reduce tax rates because investors and entrepreneurs were shifting their
activities to lower-tax countries.
Although recent tax reductions have been very beneficial to the U. S.
and foreign economies, tax competition has not yet reduced overall tax
burdens (tax revenues measured as a percentage of gross domestic product)
in most countries. Part of the reason overall burdens have remained high
is that governments have taken heavy-handed measures to try to protect
their tax bases. Such measures have included enactment of complex tax
rules on foreign business income, efforts to limit tax competition through
international pressure on low-tax nations, attacks on financial privacy, and
protectionist legislation to restrict companies and taxpayers from relocating
in more attractive tax jurisdictions. Congress needs to oppose such anti-competitive
measures because they undermine U. S. economic strength.
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Protect American Fiscal Sovereignty from Foreign Tax Harmonization Initiatives
Tax competition and lower tax rates are very good for stimulating
long-term economic growth. However, many policymakers favor income
redistribution over growth and, as a result, seek to undermine and halt
the process of tax competition.
The European Union and OECD have been at the forefront of global
efforts to stifle tax competition. In recent years, there have been a number
of efforts to harmonize tax systems across countries to limit competition
in the manner of a cartel. The EU has led that effort by pushing its member
countries to harmonize their tax systems. The most far-reaching EU harmo-nization
initiative has been the imposition of a minimum standard value-added
tax rate of 15 percent in 1992. The EU has also tried to get member
countries to harmonize income tax rates and has tried to get the United
States to impose taxes on Internet sales.
At the international level, the EU and OECD have focused on indirect
methods of nullifying tax competition, such as information sharing between
governments. The EU is promoting a scheme known as the EU Savings
Tax Directive. The OECD has pursued a policy against what it calls
'' harmful tax competition. '' OECD reports in 1998, 2000, and 2001 identi-fied
'' harmful'' tax practices by OECD member countries and listed 41
low-tax jurisdictions of which the OECD disapproves.
The EU and OECD initiatives aim to give tax collectors in each country
access to information about the economic activities of their citizens abroad
with the aim of reducing the attractiveness of low-tax countries. Many
countries tax individual residents on some portion of their income on a
worldwide basis, so gaining access to foreign information helps high-tax
countries sustain their high rates. However, unconditional information
exchanges raise serious issues of financial privacy and national sovereignty
and undermine beneficial tax competition.
Another threat is the United Nations, which has come out in favor of
restricting international tax competition. A high-level UN panel in 2001
suggested creating an International Tax Organization that would harmonize
tax policy, engage in surveillance of tax systems, and push countries to
'' desist from harmful tax competition. '' Such a new bureaucracy surely
would have a strong bias toward tax increases. The UN report sug-gests
creation of a '' global source of funds'' from a '' high yielding tax
source. '' It also suggests study of a '' Tobin tax'' on foreign exchange
transactions to finance '' global public goods. '' And it says that an ITO
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'' could take a lead role in restraining the tax competition designed to
attract multinationals. ''
Some observers think that an ITO might be like the World Trade
Organization, which handles trade disputes. But while most economists
agree on the benchmark of free trade, there is no such benchmark in the
tax world. Proponents of broad-based income taxes and proponents of
consumption-based taxes would come to vastly different conclusions about
what an ITO should enforce. Fortunately, the UN has not yet acted on
its proposals.
Congress should be very concerned that the OECD or other international
bodies do not start creating international '' standards'' that lock in high-rate
income tax systems that preclude pro-growth tax reforms very much
needed in America.
Require the Withdrawal of the Proposed IRS Regulation That Would Mandate Reporting of Bank Deposit Information on
Foreign Investors
In July 2002, the IRS commissioner issued a regulation (REG 133254-02)
to help foreign governments tax income earned in America. The proposal
is based on a scheme that was proposed by former president Clinton three
days before he left office. The IRS regulation would force U. S. banks to
report the deposit interest they pay to account holders from other countries.
It would target residents of 15 European nations and a few other countries
such as New Zealand and Australia.
The IRS regulation is bad economic policy and disregards the intent
of Congress regarding current tax policies. Interest earned on bank deposits
paid to individual foreign investors has been tax-free for many years. On
several occasions, Congress has debated whether or not to retain this tax
exemption, and it has determined to keep it because it helps draw inflows
of investment to the U. S. economy.
Note that this proposed regulation is designed, not to help the U. S.
government collect taxes, but to help foreign governments collect their
taxes. The IRS has not completed a required cost/ benefit analysis of the
proposal. Such as analysis would probably find that the regulation would
have a damaging effect on the economy as foreign investors withdrew
funds from U. S. banks. Figures from the U. S. Department of Commerce
show that the market value of private foreign investment in the United
States at the end of 2000 was about $9 trillion, with about $1.8 trillion
held in bank deposits that would be vulnerable to flowing out of the
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country if the regulation was imposed. Investment would be shifted to
lower-tax jurisdictions that have greater privacy. It makes no sense to
inflict such damage on the American economy. The IRS should withdraw
this regulation.
Oppose Anti-Competitive Legislation That Would Restrict U. S. Companies from Reincorporating Abroad
Because the U. S. tax code burdens U. S. firms with high tax rates and
complex and uncompetitive rules, a growing number of companies are
moving their place of incorporation to foreign jurisdictions. In a transaction,
referred to as an inversion, a U. S. company is placed under a newly
created foreign parent company formed in a low-tax jurisdiction. That
allows companies to reduce taxes paid to the U. S. government on their
foreign operations. They do not typically change their actual business
structure, and they continue to pay taxes on U. S.-source income to the
U. S. government.
Corporate inversions are part of the broader dynamic of rising global
tax competition. A 2002 U. S. Treasury report recognizes that inversions
raise broad issues of business tax burdens and calls for a comprehensive
reexamination of U. S. international tax rules. Yet, rather than tackle the
underlying problems of an uncompetitive corporate income tax, many
members of Congress are trying to hinder competitive relocations with laws
that represent narrow-minded fiscal protectionism. The political quick-fix
proposals introduced during the 107th Congress generally aimed to tax
foreign parent companies created for an inversion as if they were U. S.
companies, if they retain basically the same structure they had before
inversion. Various tests would be created to determine whether particular
firms should be treated as foreign or domestic.
Sponsors of those proposals claimed that companies are currently
exploiting a '' loophole'' that needs to be closed. But the tax advantage
that foreign companies have over U. S. companies in world markets is not
a loophole. It is a systematic problem with the U. S. tax code. Indeed, the
tax savings that U. S. firms gain by incorporating abroad are one measure
of the excessive U. S. business tax burden.
Even if anti– corporate inversion legislation passes, the basic tax advan-tage
of foreign firms would remain. As a result, foreign firms will continue
to acquire U. S. firms at a rapid pace. U. S. firms will continue to be at a
cost disadvantage in world markets and will have less cash available to
hire U. S. workers and pay U. S. shareholders. Also, a growing number of
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forward-looking U. S. start-up firms may decide to incorporate abroad to
enjoy long-term tax savings without having to go through the complex
and costly process of inversion.
Anti-inversion legislation offers no economic benefits; it simply raises
tax costs for U. S. companies and complicates the tax code. Congress
should reject protectionist anti-inversion legislation and stop putting off
long-overdue business tax reforms.
Engage in Fundamental Tax Reform by Substantially Cutting the Corporate Income Tax Rate and Adopting a Territorial
Tax System
Secretary of the Treasury Paul O'Neill has noted, '' If the tax code
disadvantages U. S. companies competing in the global markets, then we
should address the anti-competitive provisions of the code. '' Policymakers
can begin right away with two basic steps:
Cut the Corporate Tax Rate
The recent rise in corporate inversions is a warning that the U. S.
corporate tax has become dangerously uncompetitive. When the United
States led the world in 1986 by cutting the corporate rate from 46 to 34
percent, most major countries followed suit and some surpassed us by
cutting even further. But the United States then raised its rate to 35 percent
and piled ever more complex tax rules on international businesses. At 40
percent (federal plus the state average), the U. S. corporate income tax rate
is the fourth highest in the 30-country OECD (Figure 62.1).
A substantial cut in the corporate tax rate would greatly reduce the
inversion problem and other corporate tax avoidance problems that have
concerned policymakers. For example, there has been concern about '' earn-ings
stripping, '' which occurs when foreign parent firms lend excessively
to their U. S. subsidiaries in order to reduce U. S. taxable income with
large interest deductions. Lowering the statutory tax rate would reduce
the incentive for earnings stripping.
In a global economy with 60, 000 multinational corporations and trillions
of dollars of investment funds searching for good returns, the high U. S.
corporate tax rate is not sustainable. Unless the United States substantially
cuts its tax rates, wasteful tax avoidance will increase, complex and uncom-petitive
legislative responses will ensue, and the performance of the U. S.
economic engine will suffer.
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Figure 62.1 Average Top Corporate Income Tax Rate in the OECD
37.6%
36.8%
35.9%
34.8%
34.0%
32.8%
31.4%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
SOURCE: Cato calculations based on KPMG data. Unweighted averages.
Adopt a Territorial Tax System
Along with a lower rate, the United States should adopt a territorial
tax system. That would eliminate the need for corporate inversions and
allow U. S. firms to compete on a level playing field in foreign markets.
A territorial system would be much simpler than the complex worldwide
system that has been built piecemeal over decades without a consistent
foundation. As the Treasury study notes, '' The U. S. rules for the taxation
of foreign-source income are unique in their breadth of reach and degree
of complexity. '' Many of those rules would be done away with under a
territorial system. The ultimate solution is to replace our income-based
tax system with a low-rate territorial system that has a consumption base.
That way, global corporations will be encouraged to move their operations
and profits into the United States rather than flee to lower-tax climates.
Suggested Readings
De Rugy, Veronique. '' President Bush Should Withdraw Clinton Era IRS Regulation. '' Cato Institute Daily Commentary, December 21, 2001.
. '' Repel the Tax Cartel. '' Cato Institute Daily Commentary, June 7, 2002. . '' Runaway Corporations: Political Band-Aids vs. Long-Term Solutions. '' Cato
Institute Tax & Budget Bulletin no. 9, July 2002. Edwards, Chris. '' New Data Show U. S. Has Fourth Highest Corporate Tax Rate. '' Cato
Institute Tax & Budget Bulletin no. 3, April 2002. Edwards, Chris, and Veronique de Rugy. '' International Tax Competition: A 21st-Century
Restraint on the Government. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 431, April 12, 2002.
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Langer, Marshall. '' Harmful Tax Competition: Who Are the Real Tax Havens? '' Tax Notes, January 29, 2001.
Mitchell, Daniel. '' The Adverse Impact of Tax Harmonization and Information Ex-change on the U. S. Economy. '' Prosperitas 1, no. 4 (November 2001), www.
freedomandprosperity. org. OECD. '' Harmful Tax Competition: An Emerging Global Issue. '' April 1998,
www. oecd. org. . '' Tax Rates Are Falling. '' OECD in Washington, no. 25, March– April 2001,
www. oecdwash. org. U. S. Department of the Treasury. '' Corporate Inversion Transactions: Tax Policy Implica-tions.
'' May 2002.
—Prepared by Veronique de Rugy
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63. Immigration
Congress should
expand, or at least maintain, current legal immigration quotas;
focus border-control resources on efforts to keep terrorists out
of the country; create a temporary worker visa for less-skilled immigrants from
Mexico to work in the United States to meet labor shortages and reduce incentives for illegal immigration;
repeal the arbitrary cap on H1-B visas for highly skilled workers;
reinstate and make permanent the 245( i) provision to allow
foreign-born residents who are legally qualified to live in the United States to remain in the country while they readjust their
status; and reverse the recent decline in the number of refugees accepted
by the United States.
America was founded, shaped, and built in large measure by immigrants
seeking freedom and opportunity. Since 1820, 66 million immigrants have
entered the United States legally, and each new wave stirred controversy
in its day. In the mid-1800s, Irish immigrants were scorned as lazy drunks
too beholden to the pope in Rome. At the turn of the century, a wave
of '' New Immigrants''— Poles, Italians, Austro-Hungarians, and Russian
Jews— was believed to be too different to ever assimilate into American
life. Today the same fears arise about immigrants from Latin America
and Asia, but current critics of immigration are as wrong as their counter-parts
were in previous eras.
Immigration is not undermining the American experiment; it is an
integral part of it. We are a nation of immigrants. Successive waves of
immigrants have kept our country demographically young, enriched our
culture, and added to our productive capacity as a nation, enhancing our
influence in the world.
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Immigration gives America an economic edge in the global economy.
Immigrants bring innovative ideas and entrepreneurial spirit to the United
States, most notably in Silicon Valley and other high-technology centers.
They provide business contacts with other markets, enhancing America's
ability to trade and invest profitably abroad. They keep our economy
flexible, allowing American producers to keep prices down and meet
changing consumer demands. An authoritative 1997 study by the National
Academy of Sciences concluded that immigration delivers a '' significant
positive gain'' to native Americans of as much as $10 billion each year.
Contrary to popular myth, immigrants do not push Americans out of
jobs. Immigrants tend to fill jobs that Americans cannot or will not fill
in sufficient numbers to meet demand, mostly at the high and low ends
of the skill spectrum. Immigrants are disproportionately represented in
such high-skilled fields as medicine, physics, and computer science but
also in lower-skilled sectors such as hotels and restaurants, domestic
service, construction, and light manufacturing. Immigrants also raise
demand for goods as well as the supply. During the long boom of the
1990s, and especially in the second half of the decade, the national unem-ployment
rate fell below 4 percent and real wages rose up and down the
income scale during a time of relatively high immigration.
Immigrants are not a drain on government finances. The NAS study
also found that the typical immigrant and his or her offspring will pay a
net $80,000 more in taxes during their lifetimes than they collect in
government services. For immigrants with college degrees, the net fiscal
return is $198,000. It is true that low-skilled immigrants and refugees tend
to use welfare more than the typical '' native'' household, but welfare and
immigration reform legislation in 1996 made it much more difficult for
new immigrants to collect welfare. As a result, immigrant use of welfare
has plunged even more steeply than use among the general population.
Immigration actually improves the finances of the two largest federal
income-transfer programs, Social Security and Medicare. In a 1998 report,
the Social Security Administration concluded, '' The cost of the system
decreases with increasing rates of immigration because immigration occurs
at relatively young ages, thereby increasing the numbers of covered work-ers
earlier than the numbers of beneficiaries. ''
Despite the claims of opponents of immigration, today's flow is not
out of proportion to historical levels. Legal immigration in the last decade
averaged about 900, 000 people per year, historically high in absolute
numbers, but the rate of 4.3 immigrants per year per 1,000 U. S. residents
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is less than half the rate during the Great Migration at the turn of the last
century. (See Figure 63.1.) Today, slightly more than 10 percent of U. S.
residents are foreign born, an increase from 4.7 percent in 1970 but still
well below the 14.7 percent who were foreign born in 1910.
Immigrants cannot be fairly blamed for causing '' overpopulation'' or
'' urban sprawl. '' America's annual population growth of 1 percent is
below the average growth rate of the last century. According to the most
recent census, 22 percent of U. S. counties lost population between 1990
and 2000. Immigrants have kept major metropolitan areas vibrant and are
revitalizing demographically declining areas of the country.
Border Control and the War on Terrorism
In the wake of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, long-time
critics of immigration tried to exploit legitimate concerns about security
to argue for drastic cuts in immigration. But '' border security'' and immi-gration
are two separate matters. Immigrants are only a small subset of
the total number of foreigners who enter the United States every year. Of
the more than 30 million foreigners who entered legally in fiscal year
2000, fewer than 1 million were would-be immigrants. The vast majority
Figure 63.1 American Immigration in Perspective, by Decade, 1820– 2000
0.4 0.7
5.3
1.3
9.5 9.3
3.6
1.5 1.7 2.1
3.1
4.3 4.0
8.5
6.5 6.3
10.5
5.8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1821-
1830
1831-
1840
1841-
1850
1851-
1860
1861-
1870
1871-
1880
1881-
1890
1891-
1900
1901-
1910
1911-
1920
1921-
1930
1931-
1940
1941-
1950
1951-
1960
1961-
1970
1971-
1980
1981-
1990
1991-
2000
Immigrants
per
Year
per
1,000
U.
S.
Residents
SOURCES: 2000Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service; and 2001 Statistical Abstract
of the United States.
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came as tourists, business travelers, and students or were Mexicans and
Canadians who crossed the border for a few days to shop or visit family
and then returned home with no intention of settling permanently in the
United States.
None of the 19 terrorists who attacked America on September 11,
2001, came as immigrants. They did not apply to the Immigration and
Naturalization Service for permanent status. Like most aliens who enter
the United States, they were here on temporary tourist and student visas.
We could reduce the number of immigrants to zero and still not stop
terrorists from slipping into the country on nonimmigrant visas.
The Enhanced Border Security and Visa Entry Reform Act of 2002
represents the right kind of policy response to terrorism. The legislation,
signed by President Bush in May 2002, focuses directly on identifying
terrorist suspects abroad and keeping them out of the country. Among its
provisions, it requires tamper-resistant, machine-readable entry documents
and restricts visas from countries that sponsor terrorism. Notably absent
from the bill were any provisions rolling back levels of legal immigration
or bolstering efforts to curb undocumented migration from Mexico. Most
members of the 107th Congress rightly understood that immigrants who
come to America to work are not a threat to national security.
America's Legal Immigration System
The United States maintained an essentially unrestricted immigration
policy for most of its history. The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 and
some qualitative restrictions were the only exceptions. But in the 1920s
Congress responded to growing xenophobia and fear that new immigrants
were racially '' inferior'' by establishing strict quotas that favored immi-grants
from northern Europe. In 1965 Congress finally repealed race-based
quotas and, in effect, increased the numerical limits. In 1990 Congress
raised the numbers and included more visas for people whose immigration
is employment based.
Non-Employment-Based Immigration
Current legal immigration is tightly regulated and limited by numerical
quotas and per country ceilings that prevent people from a few countries
from obtaining all the visas. Legal immigration is limited to refugees,
close family members of citizens and legal residents, and individuals with
a company to sponsor them. A limited number of '' diversity'' visas are
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also distributed to immigrants from '' underrepresented'' countries. All
categories are numerically restricted, except for the '' immediate relatives''
of U. S. citizens, whose totals have not shown a long-term, upward trend.
Family Reunification
Under U. S. law, an American citizen can sponsor (1) a spouse or minor
child, (2) a parent, (3) a married child or a child 21 or older, or (4) a
brother or sister. A lawful permanent resident (green card holder) can
sponsor only a spouse or child. No '' extended family'' immigration catego-ries
exist for aunts, uncles, or cousins. In 2000, 78 percent of all family-sponsored
immigration visas went to spouses and children. The other 22
percent went to the parents and siblings of U. S. citizens.
Refugees
Congress should reject any rigid '' cap'' on the admission of refugees.
Such a cap is designed to slash the number of refugees admitted and
would prevent flexible responses to emerging world situations. The annual
number of refugees is set each year by consultations between the president
and Congress. The number of refugees admitted has been dropping steadily
in recent years, from an average of 121,000 per year under the first
President Bush, to 82,000 per year under President Clinton, to fewer than
70,000 under the current President Bush. In fact, the number admitted in
FY02 fell well below the 70, 000 that the president and Congress had
agreed upon in 2001. Although security concerns were cited, refugees are
among the most thoroughly screened of visa categories. The U. S. Commit-tee
for Refugees estimates that 15 million people have been displaced
from their homes by war, persecution, or natural disaster. To promote a
more stable and humane world, Congress should keep the door open to
refugees from other nations by raising the number of refugees allowed to
its more traditional level of 100,000 or more.
Asylum
Unlike refugees, who are accepted for admission while still outside the
United States, people seeking political asylum must first enter the country
and then request permission to stay. Contrary to the popular impression,
gaining political asylum is not automatic. According to the INS, less than
half of the claims considered in fiscal year 2000 were approved. INS
administrative reforms corrected the system's key problems (asylum appli-cants
can no longer receive work papers and disappear into the workforce).
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The number of first-time claims has dropped dramatically, and almost all
new cases are completed within 180 days of filing.
The legislative changes contained in the 1996 immigration law were
thus unnecessary and have created a new set of problems. There was no
need to require individuals to file for asylum within one year of arriving
in the United States, as Congress did in the 1996 immigration bill. Many
victims of torture and persecution need time for their emotional wounds
to heal and view asylum as an inevitable break with their families and
followers back home.
Another problem is the '' expedited removal'' provision of the 1996
law, which allows low-level INS officials to prevent those arriving without
valid documents from receiving a full hearing of their asylum claims. It
is not difficult to understand why people fleeing torture or other forms of
persecution often cannot obtain valid travel documents from their own
governments. The '' extraordinary circumstances'' exception to the one-year
time limit and the summary proceedings established to screen those
entering without valid documents do not ensure a high enough standard
of procedural protection for people with legitimate claims.
It is a human rights as well as an economic imperative that both the
one-year time limit and the expedited removal provisions be changed.
Employment-Based Immigration: The H-1B Debate
Foreign-born workers have filled an important role in the American
economy. Nowhere is the contribution of immigrants more apparent than
in the high-technology and other knowledge-based sectors. Silicon Valley
and other high-tech sectors would cease to function if we were to foolishly
close our door to skilled and educated immigrants. These immigrants
represent human capital that can make our entire economy more productive.
Immigrants have founded companies and developed new products that
have created employment opportunities for millions of Americans.
The primary means of hiring highly skilled foreign-born workers is the
H-1B visa. Though overly bureaucratic, the system works reasonably well.
It allows U. S. companies to hire in a timely manner foreign nationals with
the right skills for the job. H-1B visas are generally approved within 60
days. They are valid for six years but must be renewed after three years.
The company granted the visa must agree to pay the new employee at
least the '' prevailing wage'' for that area and industry. H-1B visa holders
are not immigrants or permanent residents, and they cannot progress
toward citizenship.
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Avisa systemfor highly skilled foreign-born workers existed for decades
without a cap, but in 1990 Congress imposed an arbitrary annual quota
of 65, 000 H-1B visas. As America's information economy gained steam
in the second half of the 1990s, the quota proved to be too restrictive. In
2000 Congress raised the annual cap to 195, 000 for three years. Under
the law, the quota will revert to the old level of 65,000 in FY04, which
could cripple the ability of America's most dynamic companies to remain
ahead of global competition.
Despite the charge of critics, H-1B professionals do not depress wages,
create unemployment, or cost taxpayers money. H-1B workers are gener-ally
among the best-paid workers in U. S. industry. Among the more than
half a million H-1B visas issued from 1991 through September 1999, the
Department of Labor found only seven cases of willful underpayment
by an employer. The sharp downturn in the high-tech and information
technology sectors that began in 2000 has cut the number of H1-B visa
requests in half, demonstrating that visa requests are driven by demand, not
by firms' desire to replace U. S. workers with lower-paid foreign workers.
Congress should act immediately to keep the cap at a high enough level
to meet demand or, preferably, repeal the cap altogether to allow U. S.
companies to hire the workers they need when they need them to stay
competitive in the global economy. At the very least, Congress should
permanently raise the cap to a minimum of 200,000 annually, with auto-matic
annual increases of 10 percent thereafter. Department of Labor
certifications should not place uneconomic regulatory burdens on U. S.
firms that are already under market pressure to offer competitive wages
and benefits to their workers.
Legal Immigration Reform: What Congress Should Do
Congress has followed a policy of '' immigrants yes, welfare no'' by
overwhelmingly rejecting cuts in legal immigration while at the same
time passing a welfare bill that makes immigrants ineligible for public
assistance. Immigrant welfare use, often overstated, is now a dead issue
in the immigration policy debate. Since illegal immigration is the main
concern, and legal immigration is not a problem, it is not clear why
Congress needs to make more than modest reforms to the current legal
immigration system.
Congress should continue to keep the issues of legal and illegal immigra-tion
separate. For legal immigrants, Congress should at least maintain
current family categories and quotas. Ideally, Congress should raise the
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current numbers by, among other things, setting aside separate visas for
the one-third of spouses and children of lawful permanent residents in the
immigration backlog who are physically separated from their sponsors. It
should do so without tearing apart the current family immigration system,
as the U. S. Commission on Immigration Reform recommended.
Illegal Immigration: What Congress Should Do
To better defend ourselves against terrorism and promote economic
growth, America's border-control system requires a reorientation of mis-sion.
For the last two decades, U. S. immigration policy has been obsessed
with nabbing mostly Mexican-born workers whose only '' crime'' is their
desire to work, save, and build a better life for their families. Those
workers pose no threat to national security.
The federal government's 15-year war against Mexican migration has
failed by any objective measure. Employer sanctions and border blockades
have not stopped the inflow of Mexican workers drawn by persistent
demand for their labor. Coercive efforts to keep willing workers out have
spawned an underground culture of fraud and smuggling, caused hundreds
of unnecessary deaths in the desert, and diverted attention and resources
away from real matters of border security. Those efforts have disrupted
the traditional circular flow of Mexican migration, perversely increasing the
stock of illegal Mexican workers and family members in the United States.
Important sectors of the U. S. economy have turned to low-skilled immi-grant
workers, documented and undocumented, to fill persistent job vacan-cies.
Hotels and motels, restaurants, construction, light manufacturing,
health care, retailing, and other services are major employers of low-skilled
immigrant labor. The demand for less-skilled labor will continue
to grow in the years ahead. According to the Department of Labor, occupa-tions
with the largest growth in absolute numbers will be in those categories
that require only '' short-term on-the-job training'' of one month or less.
Those categories include food preparation and service (including fast food);
waiters and waitresses; retail salespersons; cashiers; nursing aides, orderlies
and attendants; janitors and cleaners; home health aides; manual laborers;
freight, stock, and materials movers; landscaping and groundskeeping
workers; and manual packers and packagers— all occupations where low-skilled
immigrants from Mexico can be expected to help meet the rising
demand for workers. Across the U. S. economy, the Labor Department
estimates that the total number of jobs requiring only short-term training
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will increase from 53.2 million in 2000 to 60.9 million by 2010, a net
increase of 7.7 million jobs.
Meanwhile, the supply of American workers suitable for such work
continues to fall because of an aging workforce and rising education levels.
The median age of American workers continues to increase as the large
cohort of Baby Boomers begins to near retirement age. Younger and older
workers alike are now more educated as the share of adult native men
without a high school diploma has plunged, from 53.6 percent in 1960
to 9.0 percent in 1998. Yet U. S. immigration law provides no legal channels
through which low-skilled foreign-born workers can enter the United States
to fill the growing gap between demand and supply on the lower rungs
of the labor ladder.
Repeal Employer Sanctions
Congress should begin by repealing employer sanctions. Passed in 1986
and widely viewed as a failure, employer sanctions have made it a crime
to '' knowingly'' hire an illegal immigrant. It should be the job of the
federal government, not private business owners, to keep out of the country
people who are not supposed to be here. The U. S. General Accounting
Office found that employer sanctions have created a nationwide pattern
of discrimination. The nation's largest labor organization, the AFL-CIO,
has joined major business organizations such as the U. S. Chamber of
Commerce in formally opposing employer sanctions as a tool of
enforcement.
Congress must oppose any related expansion of INS '' pilot projects''
to a full-fledged national computerized employment ID system. It should
also prohibit any requirement that government-issued documents, such as
birth certificates and Social Security cards, become de facto national ID
cards, as was the intention of the 1996 immigration bill. If such a law
were enacted, one of our most basic rights, the right to earn a living,
would be at the mercy of an unreliable government computer system.
Computer verification would also compromise the right to privacy and
invite abuse by government officials.
Reinstate Section 245( i)
Section 245( i) of U. S. immigration law is a humane provision that
allows people who are residing in the United States and who are legally
qualified to stay here to pay a fee to remain in the country while they
apply for permanent residency. These are people who are typically married
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to American citizens or other legal residents, who are working, and who
have become productive members of their communities. Although they
are in technical violation of U. S. law, they pose no threat to our national
security. They can be checked and processed by U. S. authorities more
thoroughly here than at our overworked consulates abroad, all without
disrupting their work and family life. During the 107th Congress, the
House voted by a 2-to-1 margin to extend the provision, but it was blocked
procedurally in the Senate.
Legalize and Regularize Mexican Immigration
The best long-term solution to illegal immigration from Mexico is
sustained growth south of the border to create sufficient opportunities and
security at home for Mexican workers. Meanwhile, the United States and
Mexico should take steps toward an immigration system that recognizes
the reality and the benefits of Mexican migration to the United States.
One element of a more open border policy could be a temporary visa
system under which Mexicans would be allowed to work in the United
States for a fixed time before returning to Mexico. Visa holders would
be allowed to work in any job in which there was demand for their labor,
including those occupations in which illegal immigrants commonly find
work today. Such a program would allow Americans to enjoy the many
benefits of employing Mexican-born workers in sectors where demand
for labor is especially high.
At the same time, an expanded and orderly visa program would drasti-cally
reduce the disorderly and dangerous flow of illegal immigrants across
sparsely populated areas of America's 2,000-mile border with Mexico. It
would enhance our national security by draining a large section of the
underground swamp of smuggling and document fraud that facilitates
illegal immigration. It would encourage millions of currently undocu-mented
workers to make themselves known to authorities by registering
with the government, reducing cover for terrorists who manage to enter
the country and overstay their visas.
Legalization would allow the government to devote more of its resources
to keeping terrorists out of the country. Before September 11, 2001, the
U. S. government had stationed more than four times as many border
enforcement agents on the Mexican border as along the Canadian border,
even though the Canadian border is more than twice as long and has been
the preferred border of entry for Middle Easterners trying to enter the
United States illegally. A system that allows Mexican workers to enter
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the United States legally would free thousands of government personnel
and save an estimated $3 billion a year— resources that would then be
available to fight terrorism.
Suggested Readings
Griswold, Daniel T. '' Willing Workers: Fixing the Problem of Illegal Mexican Migration to the United States. '' Cato Institute Trade Policy Analysis no. 19, October 15, 2002.
Handlin, Oscar. The Uprooted: The Epic Story of the Great Migrations That Made the American People. New York: Little Brown, 1973.
Massey, Douglas S., Jorge Durand, and Nolan J. Malone. Beyond Smoke and Mirrors: Mexican Immigration in an Era of Economic Integration. New York: Russell Sage
Foundation, 2002. Masters, Suzette Brooks, and Ted Ruthizer. '' The H-1B Straitjacket: Why Congress
Should Repeal the Cap on Foreign-Born Highly Skilled Workers. '' Cato Institute Trade Briefing Paper no. 7, March 3, 2000.
Micklethwait, John. '' The New Americans. '' The Economist, March 11, 2000. Moore, Stephen. A Fiscal Portrait of the Newest Americans. Washington: Cato Institute
and National Immigration Forum, 1998. National Research Council. The New Americans: Economic, Demographic, and Fiscal
Effects of Immigration. Washington: National Academy Press, 1997.
Pistone, Michele R. '' New Asylum Laws: Undermining an American Ideal. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 299, March 24, 1998.
Simon, Julian L. Immigration: The Demographic and Economic Facts. Washington: Cato Institute and National Immigration Forum, 1995.
—Prepared by Daniel T. Griswold
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64. International Financial Crises and the IMF
Congress should
reject additional funding requests for the International Mone-tary
Fund; close down the Exchange Stabilization Fund at the U. S. Depart-ment
of the Treasury; avoid giving the IMF new missions, including that of overseeing
sovereign debt restructuring or becoming a bankruptcy court for countries; and
withdraw the United States from the IMF.
Since the $30 billion bailout of Mexico in 1995, national-currency and
financial crises in developing countries have increased, as has the incidence
of IMF-led bailout packages. Since 1997 those packages have totaled
some $280 billion for Latin America, Asia, Russia, and Turkey. Many of
those bailouts and the turmoil in international financial markets resulted
in the United States contributing $18 billion to massively increase the
IMF's resources in 1998. U. S. Treasury officials disingenuously claimed
it did not cost U. S. taxpayers a dime, but Cato Institute chairman William
Niskanen put the U. S. relationship with the IMF more accurately: '' U. S.
government membership in the IMF is like being a limited partner in a
financial firm that makes high-risk loans, pays dividends at a rate lower
than that on Treasury bills, and makes large periodic cash calls for addi-tional
funds. ''
But the monetary costs of supporting the IMF were not the most
important reasons to have opposed more funding. The costs to the global
economy are high, and the people who are most directly affected by IMF
interventions— the world's poor— are those who can least afford it. If the
goal is to help developing countries progress economically and to promote
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a liberal global economy, then, at the very least, rich countries should
seek to reduce the IMF's resources and activities.
Free-market economists have long been critical of the IMF. International
financial crises may have brought much attention to the fund in recent
years, but the lending agency's record over the past 50 years has been
dismal, as numerous books and studies have documented. The IMF does
not appear to have helped countries either to achieve self-sustaining growth
or to implement market reforms.
Despite its poor performance, the IMF has proven to be a remarkably
resilient institution. When the system of fixed exchange rates ended in
the early 1970s, so did the agency's original mission of maintaining
exchange-rate stability by lending to countries experiencing balance-of-payments
problems. Instead of closing down, however, the fund has created
new missions for itself with each new crisis, each time expanding its
economic influence or resources, or both. On average, the IMF has
requested and received an increase in resources every five years.
Although the IMF in theory makes short-term loans in exchange for
policy changes in recipient countries, it has not helped countries move to
the free market. Instead, the fund has created loan addicts. More than 70
nations have depended on IMF aid for 20 or more years; 24 countries
have received IMF credit for 30 or more years. Once a country receives
IMF credit, it is likely to depend on IMF aid for most, if not all, of the
following years. That is not evidence of either the success of the fund's so-called
conditionality or the temporary nature of the fund's short-term loans.
The fund has thus moved away from its original mission of providing
short-term balance-of-payment assistance and has instead fostered
dependence on aid. Because of that, a congressional commission on interna-tional
financial institutions, known as the Meltzer Commission, has advised
that the fund should stop providing long-term loans, a recommendation
endorsed by former U. S. treasury secretary Lawrence Summers. There
has also been more of a consensus about the detrimental effects of bailouts,
including strong statements to that effect by Treasury Secretary Paul
O'Neill. However, neither the IMF nor the U. S. Treasury has discontinued
that IMF function. Using the IMF to bail out a country experiencing a
currency or debt crisis is a bad idea for three reasons.
Moral Hazard
The first reason is that it creates moral hazard. That is, the more the
IMF bails out countries, the more we can expect countries to slip into
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crises in the future because governments and investors will engage in
risky behavior in the expectation that, if anything goes wrong, the IMF
will come to their rescue.
Moral hazard at the international level is not new. During each election
cycle from 1976 to 1994, for example, Mexico experienced a currency
crisis caused by irresponsible monetary and fiscal policy. Each episode was
accompanied by U. S. Treasury and IMF bailouts, each time in increasing
amounts. And although IMF and U. S. officials claimed that the 1995
Mexican bailout was a success, its legacy was the Asian crisis of 1997—
at least in its severity. Indeed, the bailout of Mexico was a signal to the
world that, if anything went wrong in emerging economies, the IMF would
come to investors' rescue. Moral hazard helps explain the near doubling
of capital flows to East Asia in 1995 alone.
Governments in Asia were not discouraged from maintaining flawed
policies as long as lenders kept the capital flowing. Lenders, for their part,
behaved imprudently with the knowledge that government money would
be used in case of financial troubles. That knowledge by no means meant
that investors did not care if a crisis erupted, but it led to the mispricing
of risk and a change in the investment calculations of lenders. Thailand,
Indonesia, and South Korea, after all, shared some common factors that
should have led to more investor caution but did not. Those factors included
borrowing in foreign currencies and lending in domestic currency under
pegged exchange rates, extensively borrowing in the short term while
lending in the long term, lack of supervision of borrowers' balance sheets
by foreign lenders, government-directed credit, and shaky financial sys-tems.
The financial crisis in Asia was created in Asia, but the aggravating
effect of moral hazard was extensive. As Michael Prowse of the Financial
Times commented after the Mexican bailout, '' Rubin and Co. wanted to
make global capitalism safe for the mutual fund investor. They actually
made it far riskier. ''
The facts that governments would never choose to lead their countries
into crises and that national leaders have been replaced after such crises
are often cited as evidence that moral hazard is not a problem. In fact,
'' moral hazard is not all-or-nothing but operates at the margin, '' explains
economist Lawrence H. White. '' Any IMF policy that allows finance
ministers to delay the day of reckoning reduces their caution, especially
so where political instability makes their planning horizons short. ''
Moral hazard also exists at the national level, where governments explic-itly
or implicitly guarantee that they will rescue domestic banks, thus
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encouraging risky bank behavior. The proliferation of government-subsi-dized
risk since 1982 has led to at least 90 severe banking crises in the
developing world, and the bailout costs in 20 of those cases have ranged
between 10 and 25 percent of gross domestic product. In a world of
increasingly liberal capital flows, IMF bailouts only encourage govern-ments
to maintain flawed arrangements and foreign lenders to keep lending
to those governments. Thus, even in countries whose monetary and fiscal
policies appear conservative, crises can break out as malinvestment and
the need to pay for bailouts become evident. The claim that markets react
irrationally in countries whose macroeconomic fundamentals are sound
ignores the liabilities governments face under those conditions— a factor
markets take into account.
Still, advocates of the IMF argue that it must lend to prevent a '' contagion
effect'' in other countries. The fund has thus provided bailouts to countries
after economic crises have occurred (e. g., Mexico and Thailand) and
before potential crises (e. g., Argentina, Brazil, and Russia). Neither timing
has successfully prevented future financial turmoil. Countries that have
succumbed to financial crises have done so because of poor domestic
policies; countries that do not maintain poor policies have not suffered
from so-called contagion. The real contagion effect is not what IMF
proponents typically have in mind, but rather that of future crises encour-aged
by the bailouts themselves.
An Expensive, Unjust Solution
IMF bailouts are expensive, bureaucratic, and fundamentally unjust
solutions to economic crises. In the first place, the financial aid cuts
investors' losses rather than allowing them to bear the full responsibility
for their decisions. Just as profits should not be socialized when times are
good, neither should losses be socialized during difficult times. '' The $57
billion committed to Korea, '' Harvard economist Jeffrey Sachs observed,
'' didn't help anybody but the banks. '' Unfortunately, ordinary Asian citi-zens
who had nothing to do with creating the crisis are being forced to
pay the added debt burden imposed by IMF loans.
IMF bailouts pose another burden on ordinary citizens because the
bailouts don't work very well. The fund's money goes to the governments
that have created the crises to begin with and that have shown themselves
to be unwilling or reluctant to introduce necessary reforms. Giving money
to such governments does not tend to promote market reforms; it tends
to delay them because it takes the pressure off governments to change
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their policies. Suspension of loans will tend to concentrate the minds of
policymakers in the various troubled countries. To the extent that the IMF
steps in and provides money, reform will be less forthcoming. Indeed,
despite a postcrisis recovery in some Asian countries (caused principally
by lower exchange and interest rates), fundamental structural reform has
not taken place in any of the Asian countries. Thus, the citizens of recipient
Asian nations suffer the added burden of IMF intervention. Not only do
they have to pay a greater debt, they also have to suffer prolonged economic
agony that is produced by the fund's bailouts.
But what about the fund's '' strong conditionality''? Don't the strict
conditions of IMF lending ensure that important policy changes will be
made? Again, the record of long-term dependence of countries shows that
conditionality has not worked well in the past. The Meltzer Commission,
for example, surveyed the research on conditionality, including that of the
IMF and the World Bank, and found '' no evidence of systematic, predict-able
effects from most of the conditions. '' In addition to the fund's poor
record, there is another good reason why IMFconditions have little credibil-ity.
As we have seen with Russia over the past several years, a country—
especially a highly visible one— that does not stick to IMF conditions
risks having its loans suspended. When loans are cut off, recipient govern-ments
tend to become more serious about reform. Note that the IMF
encourages misbehaving governments to introduce reforms by cutting
loans off; it is the cutoff of credit that induces policy change.
Unfortunately, when policy changes are forthcoming, the IMF resumes
lending. Indeed, the IMF has a bureaucratic incentive to lend. It simply
cannot afford to watch countries reform on their own because that would
risk making the IMF appear irrelevant. The resumption of financial aid
starts the process over again and prolongs the period of reform. The fund's
pressure to lend money in order to keep borrowers current on previous
loans and to be able to ask for more money is well documented. The
IMF's bureaucratic incentive to lend is also well known to both recipient
governments and the IMF itself, which makes the fund's conditionality
that much less credible. It is telling that the conditions of the IMF's $11.2
billion loan to Russia, approved in July 1998 (weeks before the collapse
of the ruble), were virtually identical to those of previous loan packages
totaling more than $20 billion in 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, and 1996. It is
also telling that, since Russia's debt default in 1998, its economic and
reform performance without IMF aid and advice has been superior to that
of previous years.
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Undermining Better Solutions
Third, IMF bailouts undermine superior, less-expensive market solu-tions.
In the absence of an IMF, creditors and debtors would do what
creditors and debtors always do in cases of illiquidity or insolvency:
renegotiate debt or enter into bankruptcy procedures. In a world without
the IMF, both parties would have an incentive to do so because the
alternative, to do nothing, would mean a complete loss. Direct negotiations
between private parties and bankruptcy procedures are essential if capital-ism
is to work. As James Glassman has stated, capitalism without bank-ruptcy
is like Christianity without Hell. IMF bailouts, unfortunately, under-mine
one of the most important underpinnings of a free economy by
overriding the market mechanism. As the Meltzer Commission noted:
'' The IMF creates disincentives for debt resolution when it lends to insol-vent
sovereign borrowers. This is contrary to an early hope that IMF
lending to insolvent countries would facilitate debt renegotiation. The
opposite often seems to transpire; the provision of an apparently unlimited
external supply of funds forestalls creditors and debtors from offering
concessions. '' There is simply no reason why international creditors and
borrowers should be treated any differently than are lenders and debtors
in the domestic market.
Governments would also react differently if no IMF interventions were
forthcoming. There would be little alternative to widespread and rapid
reforms if policymakers were not shielded from economic reality. Law-rence
Lindsey, chief economic adviser to President Bush, who has opposed
bailouts, has noted, for example, '' All of the 'conditions' supposedly
negotiated by the IMF will be forced on South Korea by the market. ''
Of course, there is always the possibility that a government would be
reluctant to change its ways under any circumstances; but that is a possibil-ity
that is larger, and indeed has become a reality, under IMF programs.
'' Perhaps, the IMF's assistance cushions the decline in income and living
standards, '' reflected the Meltzer Commission. But it found that '' neither
the IMF, nor others, has produced much evidence that its policies and
actions have this beneficial effect. ''
The IMF as Bankruptcy Court for Countries?
Recognizing the dysfunctional relationship between international credi-tors
and debtors, and in an effort to '' minimize moral hazard, '' in the
words of IMF managing director Horst Kohler, the IMF has proposed a
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new way of dealing with sovereign debt and default. The fund's Sovereign
Debt Restructuring Mechanism would turn the IMF into a sort of bank-ruptcy
court for countries. Although the IMF has not abandoned the use
of bailouts, the international bankruptcy proposal would fundamentally
change the mission of the IMF. The spectacular collapse of the highly
indebted Argentine economy in 2002, after having received IMF bailout
packages of more than $40 billion, indisputably revealed the need for a
new approach to debt problems that did not shield lenders and borrowers
from economic reality at all costs.
Yet the bankruptcy approach proposed by the fund is fraught with
problems. The changes called for require the IMF's charter to be amended,
a procedure that would take years to complete if accepted by its members.
The fund would play a central role in determining what countries would
qualify for default and why, including countries holding IMF debt. IMF
financing would still be used during debt negotiations. In practice, that
would encourage creditors to prolong the workout process in an effort to
extract more IMF financing; debtors could also use the IMF money to
game the system and delay needed reforms. The result of putting the
fund at the center of debt renegotiations would likely be unpredictability,
financial volatility, and higher borrowing costs to emerging markets across
the board regardless of whether some countries merit such an outcome
or not.
Better approaches involve direct negotiations between creditors and
debtors without the IMF's cumbersome, third-party interventions. For
example, Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs John
Taylor has proposed that creditors begin relying on collective action
clauses, which would allow a majority of creditors to negotiate in the
name of all creditors in the event of a default, thus eliminating the problem
of '' holdout'' creditors. Carnegie Mellon University economists Adam
Lerrick and Allan Meltzer point out that all of the protections offered by
a formal bankruptcy court can be incorporated into new debt issues. Lerrick
and Meltzer also show how market mechanisms already exist to renegotiate
outstanding debt in a short period of time without the aid of the IMF.
Such well-established capital market tools as exchange offers and exit
consent amendments can be used to voluntarily convert old debt into new
debt with majority action clauses and to change the nonpayment terms of
the old debt. Those tools, and Argentina's experience with a well-organized
creditors' committee formed before the country defaulted, undermine the
argument that coordination among creditors would be too difficult to
achieve absent an IMF-backed bankruptcy procedure.
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The IMF as a Lender of Last Resort and Surveillance Agency?
Many people who recognize the practical problems of IMF bailouts, including moral hazard, questionable policy advice, and the difficulty of
enforcing conditions, still believe that the IMF is needed as an international lender of last resort. Yet the IMF does not perform that function now,
nor can it. A true lender of last resort provides funds at a penalty rate to solvent banks that are temporarily threatened by panic, thereby containing
financial turmoil. By contrast, the IMF provides subsidized funds that bail out insolvent financial institutions, thereby discouraging much-needed
bankruptcy proceedings and corporate restructuring. The IMF cannot act quickly or create money as can true lenders of last resort. Countries that
experience threats to their financial systems can rely on their own central banks as lenders of last resort. That includes the United States, where the
Federal Reserve is charged with such a mission. The Fed's failure to perform that mission earlier this century— not the absence of an interna-tional
lender of last resort— led to the Great Depression. It is highly improbable that the Fed would repeat the same monumental policy mis-takes
today. Others have recommended that the IMF strengthen its role as a watchdog
agency that provides an '' early warning'' of potential financial troubles. Yet it is unclear how a warning mechanism would work. As economist
Raymond Mikesell asks, '' Who would be warned and when? As soon as the financial community receives a warning that a country is facing financial
difficulty, a massive capital outflow is likely to occur, in which case crisis prevention would be out of the question. ''
On the other hand, if the IMF perceives serious financial difficulties in a country and does not disclose that information, then it undermines
its credibility as a credit-rating agency for countries. That appears to have been the case in Thailand, where the IMF claimed, postcrisis, that it issued
warnings about the economy before the crisis erupted but kept those concerns confidential. The fund's credibility is further undercut by inherent
conflicts of interest: in many cases, it would be evaluating countries in which it has its own money at stake; in all cases, it would be evaluating
countries that, as member-owners of the IMF, have contributed to the fund's pool of resources. Only by ceasing to lend could the agency increase
its integrity. At that point, however, its evaluations would merely replicate a service already available.
The Exchange Stabilization Fund
The executive branch has also used a little-known account, the Exchange
Stabilization Fund, at the Treasury Department to circumvent Congress
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in providing foreign aid. Originally set up in 1934 to stabilize the value
of the dollar, the ESF has since been used to prop up foreign currencies
and economies. Most recently, it has been used as a bailout fund for
countries in crisis. In 1995 the ESF made a $12 billion loan, its largest,
to Mexico; it has since made available billions of dollars more to South
Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries.
The ESF should be closed down because its bailout function suffers
from the same defects that afflict the IMF: it creates moral hazard, delays
reforms, and precludes superior market solutions to financial crises. More-over,
the ESF is an undemocratic institution since it is exempt from
legislative oversight and its transactions, under the sole discretion of the
executive branch, are secretive. Economist Anna Schwartz finds that the
ESF failed even in its original mission, having '' always been wasteful
and ineffective at controlling the relative price of the U. S. dollar. ''
Conclusion
Crises in Latin America, Asia, and elsewhere have occurred because
of flawed domestic policies. Bailouts by the IMF or the U. S. Treasury
only encourage further crises and aggravate current ones. At a time when
the world is moving toward the market, the bureaucratic response to
government-induced financial turmoil makes matters worse. The market
is far more effective in enforcing conditions, promoting reform, and minim-izing
the risk of a crisis spreading in the near term or far into the future.
It is also more effective at dealing with sovereign debt and default. The
United States and other major donors should reject further funding for
the IMF or schemes that would turn the IMF into a bankruptcy court for
countries. That would send a signal to the world that the fund's resources
are not, in fact, unlimited and that lenders and borrowers should be held
accountable for their actions. Beyond that, the United States should help
the world's poor by withdrawing from the IMF.
Suggested Readings
Calomiris, Charles W. '' The IMF's Imprudent Role as Lender of Last Resort. '' Cato Journal 17, no. 3 (Winter 1998).
DeRosa, David. In Defense of Free Capital Markets: The Case against the New Interna-tional Financial Architecture. Princeton, N. J.: Bloomberg, 2001.
Hoskins, W. Lee, and James W. Coons. '' Mexico: Policy Failure, Moral Hazard, and Market Solutions. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 243, October 10, 1995.
International Financial Institution Advisory Commission (Meltzer Commission). '' Report to the U. S. Congress and the U. S. Department of the Treasury. '' March 8, 2000.
www. house. gov/ jec/ imf/ meltzer. htm.
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Lerrick, Adam, and Allan H. Meltzer. '' Sovereign Default: The Private Sector Can Resolve Bankruptcy without a Formal Court. '' Carnegie Mellon Gailliot Center for
Public Policy, Quarterly International Economics Report, April 2002. Meltzer, Allan H. '' Asian Problems and the IMF. '' Cato Journal 17, no. 3 (Winter 1998).
Schwartz, Anna J. '' Time to Terminate the ESF and the IMF. '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 48, August 26, 1998.
Shultz, George, William Simon, and Walter Wriston. '' Who Needs the IMF? '' Wall Street Journal, February 3, 1998.
Va´squez, Ian. '' The Asian Crisis: Why the IMF Should Not Intervene. '' Vital Speeches, April 15, 1998.
. '' The Brady Plan and Market-Based Solutions to Debt Crises. '' Cato Journal 16, no. 2 (Fall 1996).
. '' Repairing the Lender-Borrower Relationship in International Finance. '' Cato Institute Foreign Policy Briefing no. 54, September 27, 1999.
. '' A Retrospective on the Mexican Bailout. '' Cato Journal 21, no. 3 (Winter 2002).
Va´squez, Ian, ed. Global Fortune: The Stumble and Rise of World Capitalism. Washing-ton: Cato Institute, 2000.
—Prepared by Ian Va´squez
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65. U. S. Policy toward Latin America
Congress should
unilaterally open the U. S. market to goods from Latin America,
support a free-trade agreement with Chile,
support the Free Trade Area of the Americas, and
facilitate dollarization for any country that wishes to adopt the
dollar as its national currency.
In limited but important ways, Washington can positively influence
economic policy in Latin America. At a time when much of the region
is experiencing economic and political instability, the rise of neopopulism,
and a general backlash against free-market reforms that were partially
implemented in the 1990s, the United States should exercise its influence
by opening its market to the region's goods and by encouraging market
reforms.
Since the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement with
Mexico and Canada in 1993, however, the United States has shown no
such leadership. Instead, Washington promised to create a hemispheric
free-trade zone, known as the Free Trade Area of the Americas, but made
little effort to promote the idea.
The result was unfortunate and a window of opportunity was lost. Latin
American countries that were eager to enter into an FTAA gradually
became disillusioned with years of U. S. inaction, and many have now
turned decidedly against the idea of free trade. Worse, as economist
Sebastian Edwards points out, Washington's promise of promoting the
FTAA had the perverse effect of actually halting unilateral trade barrier
reductions in Latin America as those countries waited to negotiate reduc-tions
with the United States, an expectation that went unfulfilled. Moreover,
since the Mexican peso crisis of 1994– 95, Washington has supported
massive International Monetary Fund bailouts that have encouraged irre-653
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sponsible behavior by investors and policymakers and have surely
increased the severity of economic crises in the region.
President Bush has recently emphasized the FTAA as a policy priority.
But his administration's support for increased steel tariffs and farm subsid-ies
has undermined Washington's credibility in a region already wary of
U. S. intentions. The United States can take steps to regain the initiative.
To do so, it must first understand where the region stands.
Latin America since the 1990s
The early 1990s saw the introduction of far-reaching market reforms
in many, but not all, Latin American countries, especially in the areas of
monetary policy, trade and investment liberalization, and privatization of
state-owned enterprises. Countries in the region ended hyperinflation,
reduced their tariffs unilaterally, and eventually sold more than $150 billion
of state assets. The initial results were high growth and the widespread
popularity of the reforms in the countries that did the most to reform.
Mexican president Carlos Salinas was the most popular outgoing president
in Mexican history in 1994, and Presidents Alberto Fujimori of Peru
and Carlos Menem of Argentina were reelected by wide margins in the
mid-1990s.
By the end of the decade and the beginning of the next one, however,
a number of countries had experienced years of recession, political instabil-ity,
and economic crises. Even countries that had introduced only timid
reforms had that experience. The IMF bailed out Mexico, Argentina,
Brazil, and Uruguay, some more than once. Most spectacular was the
collapse of the Argentine economy in early 2002. That country's default
and devaluation sent it into a deep depression, calling into question market
reforms in the minds of many Argentineans. Latin America's disappointing
per capita growth of 1.5 percent per year in the 1990s was still better than
that of the '' lost decade'' of the 1980s (0.68 percent), but it certainly
did not live up to expectations and was too often accompanied by economic
turmoil. It is within that context of disillusionment that politicians using
populist or demagogic rhetoric have risen to power in Argentina, Brazil,
Venezuela, Peru, and elsewhere, vilifying the free market as the source
of their countries' troubles.
But to blame the market is hopelessly wrongheaded. It is important to
remember that the regionwide shift to the market occurred because of
the failure of past policies, not because governments were committed to
free-market principles. For example, the left-leaning ruling party in Mex-654
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ico, the Peronist party in Argentina, and Fujimori's upstart party, which
campaigned against radical market reforms in Peru, introduced liberaliza-tion.
By the mid-1990s, with the success of the early reforms, governments
lost interest in liberalization. The unfinished reform agenda was extensive
and brought diminishing returns in the form of slower growth and negative
economic indicators. Argentina, for example, suffered from chronically
high unemployment throughout the 1990s because it never reformed its
rigid labor laws. Latin America had only begun to embrace economic
freedom.
Indeed, a whole range of institutions and policies has been left
untouched. The pervasiveness of a vast informal economy in most Latin
American countries attests to that fact. The region's citizens have long
responded to the high costs of the formal legal and regulatory system by
simply operating outside it. They have found the formal system of rules
to be prohibitively expensive. The private property rights of the poor in
urban and rural areas, for example, are typically not recognized or protected
by the state since property titling is complicated or impossible. Yet private
property lies at the heart of a market system, and the absence of property
titles severely restrains the creation of wealth. Bureaucratic red tape also
pushes people into the informal sector. Opening a small business in Latin
America legally can cost thousands of dollars in licensing fees and take
months or years for approval— a procedure that costs less and takes days
in rich countries. The rule of law, another institution essential to the
functioning of a market economy, is severely defective or nonexistent in
the region. Latin America has been given low scores on both the rule of
law and business regulation in Economic Freedom of the World.
Other sectors, including health care, education, and public security,
have seen virtually no reform although they have continued to deteriorate,
often despite increases in spending. That situation has led Argentinean
economist Ricardo Lo´pez Murphy to complain that Argentineans pay
Swedish-level tax rates for public services of African quality.
Thus, Latin America in the 1990s moved partially down the path of
economic freedom, but it still has a long way to travel if it is to sustain
growth and avoid financial turmoil. Indeed, the continued adherence to
old policy practices in large part explains the region's economic crises of
the past decade. The crash of the Mexican peso, for example, resulted
from a government-managed exchange rate and expansionary monetary
and fiscal policies during an election year, policies thoroughly inconsistent
with market economics. Likewise, Argentina's default resulted from a 90
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percent increase in both public spending and debt from 1991 to 2000, far
outstripping the 50 percent growth in gross domestic product of that period.
Chile and Mexico Teach the Real Lessons from Latin America
Despite such disappointments, the most important lessons coming out
of Latin America are encouraging. As Jackson Diehl of the Washington
Post notes, '' The latest debt crisis is serving to underline not just the
failures of those countries that embraced liberal economics in the 1990s
but the breakthrough success of the two nations that did it right: Chile
and Mexico. '' Those two countries, and some Central American nations
including El Salvador and Costa Rica, are increasingly setting themselves
apart from the rest of Latin America in terms of economic and political
performance.
The sharpest contrast is provided by Chile, the country that has applied
and maintained the most far-reaching and coherent set of market-liberal
policies for the longest time. The resulting high growth has enabled the
country to more than double its per capita income in the last 15 years
and to achieve impressive advances in a range of human development
indicators. According to the Santiago-based Institute for Liberty and Devel-opment,
for example, Chilean growth of about 7 percent from 1987 to
1998 reduced the poverty rate from 45 to 22 percent during that period.
Mexico has likewise maintained economic stability and a growth rate
notably higher than the regional average since the peso crisis of 1994– 95.
Like Chile, it has accomplished much within the context of democratic
transfers of power. Mexican growth has raised per capita income above
precrisis levels and has done so relatively rapidly. The key to Mexico's
performance has been NAFTA. Free trade with the United States enabled
Mexico to begin recovering from its crisis within a year. It took Mexico
six years to recover from its economic crisis of 1982, at a time when its
economy was fairly closed.
The divergence in performance between the free-trade countries of Chile
and Mexico and the more protectionist countries in most of the rest
of the region will become even clearer in coming years, especially if
neopopulism holds sway in the latter countries. The United States can
buttress that demonstration effect by signing on to a free-trade agreement
with Chile, a treaty for which negotiations were completed at the end of
2002. A free-trade agreement with Chile would not only benefit the United
States and Chile; it would also send a signal to the region that the United
States is willing to reward countries that implement free-market policies.
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Washington should follow suit with El Salvador and other Latin American
countries that have liberalized their economies and are eager to sign a
trade treaty with the United States. Indeed, Congress should also support
efforts to promote a Free Trade Area of the Americas, although that
initiative looks increasingly difficult to realize, given the region's politi-cal
outlook.
Independent of free-trade negotiations, the United States should immedi-ately
reduce its barriers to Latin America's exports, especially textiles and
agricultural products. At a time when U. S. credibility on trade is at a low
point, such a move would restore some goodwill toward Washington and
might help persuade reluctant countries to reduce some of their own trade
barriers. At the very least, the United States could then not be blamed for
hypocrisy, and the welfare of both the United States and Latin America
would improve. Such a unilateral policy of reducing trade barriers, more-over,
would not be in conflict with the goal of negotiating free-trade
agreements. As Cato Institute scholar Brink Lindsey points out, the United
States has successfully negotiated trade agreements affecting sectors in
the U. S. economy that enjoy virtually no protectionism (e. g., telecommuni-cations
and financial services). For countries that are interested in free
trade with the United States, such agreements offer the advantage of
'' locking in'' free trade both at home and abroad. Indeed, the certainty
provided by free-trade treaties is one of their greatest benefits and explains
why they tend to result in increases of both trade and investment.
Dollarization
The United States should support another positive trend in the hemi-sphere:
dollarization. In an effort to eliminate currency risk, including
sudden and large devaluations and other manifestations of irresponsible
monetary policy, Ecuador and El Salvador have joined Panama as countries
that use the U. S. dollar as their national currency. Because most of the
region's central banks have a poor record of maintaining the value of their
currencies, Latin Americans already use the dollar widely, and it has
become the currency of choice in many countries, including Cuba. Other
countries, such as Argentina, may wish to replace their currencies with
the dollar as well.
The United States should neither discourage nor encourage those moves
but should facilitate official dollarization where it occurs. That may mean
sharing the dollar's seigniorage— or the profit that derives from printing
currency— with countries that decide to dollarize. In that way, the United
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States would neither gain nor lose money as a result of another country's
decision to dollarize, but the dollarizing country might more easily dollarize
if it could still earn seigniorage from the currency it uses. Dollarization
alone cannot solve a country's economic problems, but for countries with
poor monetary policies, dollarization would end currency risk, reduce
interest rates, and help stimulate investment and growth.
Time for a U. S. Policy toward Latin America
The United States can play a strategic role in promoting economic
freedom, stability, and growth in Latin America— something it has not
done for nearly a decade. That means reversing the current policy character-ized
by bailouts, protectionist measures, and mixed messages to the region.
It also means that Washington must end its destructive war on drugs in
the region, which works at cross-purposes with important U. S. policy
priorities (see Chapter 56 on the international war on drugs). In drug-source
countries such as Colombia, the drug war is fueling corruption and
violence, financing terrorism, undermining the rule of law, and otherwise
debilitating the institutions of civil society. The impact of the U. S.-led
war on drugs south of the border has been imperceptible in the United
States, but its consequences in Latin America are completely at odds with
Washington's stated goal of encouraging free markets.
The rhetoric of free trade must be followed by policy actions consistent
with such language. Congress should support a unilateral reduction of
trade barriers to the region's goods and negotiate free-trade agreements
with countries eager to do so, beginning with Chile. The United States
would thus highlight the success of market reformers in the region by
rewarding them without penalizing others. The diverging performances
of the countries that embrace economic freedom and the rest can have a
powerful effect on the policy direction that Latin American countries
subsequently take.
Suggested Readings
Carpenter, Ted Galen. Bad Neighbor Policy: Washington's Futile War on Drugs in Latin America. New York: Palgrave, 2003.
Falcoff, Mark. '' Colombia: A Questionable Choice of Objectives. '' AEI Latin American Outlook, March 2002.
Haber, Stephen. Crony Capitalism and Economic Growth in Latin America: Theory and Evidence. Stanford, Calif.: Hoover Institution Press, 2002.
Mendoza, Plinio Apuleyo, Carlos Alberto Montaner, and Alvaro Vargas Llosa. Guide to the Perfect Latin American Idiot. New York: Madison Books, 2001.
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U. S. Policy toward Latin America
Montaner, Carlos Alberto. Las Raices Torcidas de Ame´rica Latina. Barcelona: Plaza & Janes, 2001.
Schuler, Kurt. '' Fixing Argentina. '' Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 445, July 16, 2002. Va´liz, Claudio. The New World of the Gothic Fox: Culture and Economy in English
and Spanish America. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1994.
Vargas Llosa, Mario. Foreword to The Other Path, by Hernando de Soto. New York: Harper and Row, 1989.
Va´squez, Ian. '' A Retrospective on the Mexican Bailout. '' Cato Journal 21, no. 3 (Winter 2002).
—Prepared by Ian Va´squez
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66. Foreign Aid and Economic Development
Congress should
abolish the U. S. Agency for International Development and
end government-to-government aid programs; withdraw fromthe World Bank and the five regional multilateral
development banks; not use foreign aid to encourage or reward market reforms in
the developing world; eliminate programs, such as enterprise funds, that provide
loans to the private sector in developing countries and oppose schemes that guarantee private-sector investments abroad;
privatize or abolish the Export-Import Bank, the Overseas Pri-vate
Investment Corporation, the U. S. Trade and Development Agency, and other sources of international corporate welfare;
forgive the debts of heavily indebted countries on the condition
that they not receive any further foreign aid; and end government support of microenterprise lending and non-governmental
organizations.
President Bush has called for increasing U. S. bilateral development
assistance by about 50 percent by fiscal year 2006, gradually raising the
aid above the current level of roughly $10 billion. The new Millennium
Challenge Account would direct the additional funds to poor countries
that have sound policy environments. Likewise, the World Bank is advocat-ing
a doubling of the current $50 billion official development assistance
worldwide.
Those calls for significant increases in foreign aid are based on the
argument that aid agencies have learned from the failure of past foreign
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aid programs and that overseas assistance can now be generally effective
in promoting growth. But what we know about aid and development
provides little reason for such enthusiasm:
There is no correlation between aid and growth.
Aid that goes into a poor policy environment doesn't work and
contributes to debt.
Aid conditioned on market reforms has been a failure.
Countries that have adapted market-oriented policies have done so
because of factors unrelated to aid.
There is a strong relationship between economic freedom and growth.
A widespread consensus has formed about the above points, even among
development experts. As developing countries began introducing market
reforms in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the most successful reformers
also experienced noticeably better economic performance. As would be
expected, the improvement among the successful reformers also improved
the apparent performance of foreign aid in those countries— thus the new
emphasis on giving aid to countries that have already adopted good policies.
The new approach to aid is dubious for many reasons, not the least of
which is the fact that countries with sound policies will already be rewarded
with economic growth and do not need foreign aid. In any event, much,
if not most, foreign assistance will continue to follow traditional practice.
The Dismal Record of Foreign Aid
By the 1990s the failure of conventional government-to-government
aid schemes had been widely recognized and brought the entire foreign
assistance process under scrutiny. For example, a Clinton administration
task force conceded that, '' despite decades of foreign assistance, most of
Africa and parts of Latin America, Asia and the Middle East are economi-cally
worse off today than they were 20 years ago. '' As early as 1989 a
bipartisan task force of the House Foreign Affairs Committee concluded
that U. S. aid programs '' no longer either advance U. S. interests abroad
or promote economic development. ''
Multilateral aid has also played a prominent role in the post– World
War II period. The World Bank, to which the United States is the major
contributor, was created in 1944 to provide aid mostly for infrastructure
projects in countries that could not attract private capital on their own.
The World Bank has since expanded its lending functions, as have the
five regional development banks that have subsequently been created on
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the World Bank's model: the Inter-American Development Bank, the
Asian Development Bank, the African Development Bank, the European
Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Middle East Develop-ment
Bank.
Despite record levels of lending, however, the multilateral development
banks have not achieved more success at promoting economic growth
than has U. S. AID. Numerous self-evaluations of World Bank performance
over the years, for example, have uncovered high failure rates of bank-financed
projects. In 2000, the bipartisan Meltzer Commission of the U. S.
Congress found a 55 to 60 percent failure rate of World Bank projects
based on the bank's own evaluations. A 1998 World Bank report concluded
that aid agencies '' saw themselves as being primarily in the business of
dishing out money, so it is not surprising that much [aid] went into poorly
managed economies— with little result. '' The report also said that foreign
aid had often been '' an unmitigated failure. '' '' No one who has seen the
evidence on aid effectiveness, '' commented Oxford University economist
Paul Collier in 1997, '' can honestly say that aid is currently achieving its
objective. ''
Although a small group of countries in the developing world (some of
which received aid at some point) has achieved self-sustaining economic
growth, most recipients of aid have not. Rather, as a 1989 U. S. AID
report suggested, aid has tended to create dependence on the part of
borrower countries.
There are several reasons why massive transfers from the developed
to the developing world have not led to a corresponding transfer of pros-perity.
Aid has traditionally been lent to governments, has supported
central planning, and has been based on a fundamentally flawed vision
of development.
By lending to governments, U. S. AID and the multilateral development
agencies supported by Washington have helped expand the state sector
at the expense of the private sector in poor countries. U. S. aid to India
from 1961 to 1989, for example, amounted to well over $2 billion, almost
all of which went to the Indian state. Ghanaian-born economist George
Ayittey complained that, as late as 1989, 90 percent of U. S. aid to sub-Saharan
Africa went directly to governments.
Foreign aid has thus financed governments, both authoritarian and demo-cratic,
whose policies have been the principal cause of their countries'
impoverishment. Trade protectionism, byzantine licensing schemes, infla-tionary
monetary policy, price and wage controls, nationalization of indus-663
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tries, exchange-rate controls, state-run agricultural marketing boards, and
restrictions on foreign and domestic investment, for example, have all
been supported explicitly or implicitly by U. S. foreign aid programs.
Not only has lack of economic freedom kept literally billions of people
in poverty; development planning has thoroughly politicized the economies
of developing countries. Centralization of economic decisionmaking in
the hands of political authorities has meant that a substantial amount of poor
countries' otherwise useful resources has been diverted to unproductive
activities such as rent seeking by private interests or politically motivated
spending by the state.
Research by economist Peter Boone of the London School of Economics
confirms the dismal record of foreign aid to the developing world. After
reviewing aid flows to more than 95 countries, Boone found that '' virtually
all aid goes to consumption'' and that '' aid does not increase investment
and growth, nor benefit the poor as measured by improvements in human
development indicators, but it does increase the size of government. ''
It has become abundantly clear that as long as the conditions for eco-nomic
growth do not exist in developing countries, no amount of foreign
aid will be able to produce economic growth. Moreover, economic growth
in poor countries does not depend on official transfers from outside sources.
Indeed, were that not so, no country on earth could ever have escaped
from initial poverty. The long-held premise of foreign assistance— that
poor countries were poor because they lacked capital— not only ignored
thousands of years of economic development history; it also was contra-dicted
by contemporary events in the developing world, which saw the
accumulation of massive debt, not development.
Promoting Market Reforms
Even aid intended to advance market liberalization can produce undesir-able
results. Such aid takes the pressure off recipient governments and
allows them to postpone, rather than promote, necessary but politically
difficult reforms. Ernest Preeg, former chief economist at U. S. AID, for
instance, noted that problem in the Philippines after the collapse of the
Marcos dictatorship: '' As large amounts of aid flowed to the Aquino
government from the United States and other donors, the urgency for
reform dissipated. Economic aid became a cushion for postponing difficult
internal decisions on reform. A central policy focus of the Aquino govern-ment
became that of obtaining more and more aid rather than prompt
implementation of the reform program. ''
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A similar outcome is evident in the Middle East, which receives about
one-third of U. S. economic aid, most of which is received by the govern-ments
of Egypt and Israel. It should not be surprising, then, that the region
is notable for its low levels of economic freedom and almost complete
lack of economic reform. In 1996 the Institute for Advanced Strategic
and Political Studies, an Israeli think tank, complained: '' Almost one-seventh
of the GDP comes to Israel as charity. This has proven to be
economically disastrous. It prevents reform, causes inflation, fosters waste,
ruins our competitiveness and efficiency, and increases the future tax
burden on our children who will have to repay the part of the aid that
comes as loans. '' In 1998 the institute again complained that foreign aid
'' is the single greatest obstacle to economic freedom in Israel. ''
Far more effective at promoting market reforms is the suspension or
elimination of aid. Although U. S. AID lists South Korea and Taiwan as
success stories of U. S. economic assistance, those countries began to take
off economically only after massive U. S. aid was cut off. As even the
World Bank has conceded, '' Reform is more likely to be preceded by a
decline in aid than an increase in aid. '' When India faced Western sanctions
in 1998 in response to nuclear tests there, the International Herald Tribune
reported that '' India approved at least 50 foreign-investment projects to
compensate for the loss of aid from Japan and the United States'' and
that it would take additional measures to attract capital. In the end, the
countries that have done the most to reform economically have made
changes despite foreign aid, not because of it.
Still, much aid is delivered on the condition that recipient countries
implement market-oriented economic policies. Such conditionality is the
basis for the World Bank's structural adjustment lending, which it began
in the early 1980s after it realized that pouring money into unsound
economies would not lead to self-sustaining growth. But aid conditioned
on reform has not been effective at inducing reform. One 1997 World
Bank study noted that there '' is no systematic effect of aid on policy. ''
A 2002 World Bank study admitted that '' too often, governments receiving
aid were not truly committed to reforms'' and that '' the Bank has often
been overly optimistic about the prospects for reform, thereby contributing
to misallocation of aid. '' Oxford's Paul Collier explains: '' Some govern-ments
have chosen to reform, others to regress, but these choices appear
to have been largely independent of the aid relationship. The micro-evidence
of this result has been accumulating for some years. It has been
suppressed by an unholy alliance of the donors and their critics. Obviously,
the donors did not wish to admit that their conditionality was a charade. ''
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Lending agencies have an institutional bias toward continued lending
even if market reforms are not adequately introduced. Yale University
economist Gustav Ranis explains that within some lending agencies, '' ulti-mately
the need to lend will overcome the need to ensure that those [loan]
conditions are indeed met. '' In the worst cases, of course, lending agencies
do suspend loans in an effort to encourage reforms. When those reforms
begin or are promised, however, the agencies predictably respond by
resuming the loans— a process Ranis has referred to as a '' time-consuming
and expensive ritual dance. ''
In sum, aiding reforming nations, however superficially appealing, does
not produce rapid and widespread liberalization. Just as Congress should
reject funding regimes that are uninterested in reform, it should reject
schemes that call for funding countries on the basis of their records of
reform. This includes the Bush administration's Millennium Account. The
most obvious problem with that program is that it is based on a conceptual
flaw: countries that are implementing the right policies for growth, and
therefore do not need foreign aid, will be receiving aid. The practical
problems are also formidable. The Millennium Account and other pro-grams
of its kind will require that U. S. AID and other aid agencies— all
of which have a poor record in determining when and where to disburse
foreign aid— make complex judgment calls about what countries deserve
the aid and when. Moreover, it is difficult to believe that bureaucratic
self-interest, micromanagement by Congress, and other political considera-tions
will not continue to play a role in the disbursement of this kind of
foreign aid. Indeed, had they received substantial foreign assistance as a
reward for implementing far-reaching liberalization measures, it is unlikely
that countries such as Chile or the Czech Republic would be as economi-cally
sound as they are today.
Helping the Private Sector
Enterprise funds are another initiative intended to help market econo-mies.
Under this approach, U. S. AID and the Overseas Private Investment
Corporation have established and financed venture funds throughout the
developing world. Their purpose is to promote economic progress and
'' jump-start'' the market by investing in the private sector.
It was always unclear exactly how such government-supported funds
find profitable private ventures in which the private sector is unwilling to
invest. Numerous evaluations have now found that most enterprise funds
are losing money, and many have simply displaced private investment
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that otherwise would have taken place. Moreover, there is no evidence
that the funds have generated additional private investment, had a positive
impact on development, or helped create a better investment environment
in poor countries.
Similar efforts to underwrite private entrepreneurs are evident at the
World Bank (through its expanding program to guarantee private-sector
investment) and at U. S. agencies such as the Export-Import Bank, OPIC,
and the Trade and Development Agency, which provide comparable
services.
U. S. officials justify those programs on the grounds that they help
promote development and benefit the U. S. economy. Yet the provision
of loan guarantees and subsidized insurance to the private sector relieves
the governments of underdeveloped countries from creating an investment
environment that would attract foreign capital on its own. To attract much-needed
investment, countries should establish secure property rights and
clear economic policies, rather than rely on Washington-backed schemes
that allow avoidance of those reforms.
Moreover, while some corporations clearly benefit from the array of
foreign assistance schemes, the U. S. economy and American taxpayers do
not. Subsidized loans and insurance programs merely amount to corporate
welfare. Macroeconomic policies and conditions, not corporate welfare
programs, affect factors such as the unemployment rate and the size of
the trade deficit. Programs that benefit specific interest groups manage
only to rearrange resources within the U. S. economy and do so in a very
wasteful manner. Indeed, the United States did not achieve and does not
maintain its status as the world's largest exporter because of agencies like
the Export-Import Bank, which finances about 1 percent of U. S. exports.
Even U. S. AID claims that the main beneficiary of its lending is the
United States because close to 80 percent of its contracts and grants go
to American firms. That argument is also fallacious. '' To argue that aid
helps the domestic economy, '' renowned economist Peter Bauer explains,
'' is like saying that a shop-keeper benefits from having his cash register
burgled so long as the burglar spends part of the proceeds in his shop. ''
Debt Relief
Some 42 poor countries today suffer from inordinately high foreign
debt levels. Thus, the World Bank and the IMF have devised a $37.2
billion debt-relief initiative for the world's heavily indebted poor countries
(HIPCs). To fund the HIPC program, the aid agencies are requesting about
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half of that money from the United States and other donors. The initiative,
of course, is an implicit recognition of the failure of past lending to produce
self-sustaining growth, especially since an overwhelming percentage of
eligible countries' public foreign debt is owed to bilateral and multilateral
lending agencies. Indeed, 96 percent of those countries' long-term debt
is public or publically guaranteed (Table 66.1).
Forgiving poor nations' debt, of course, is a sound idea, on the condition
that no other aid is forthcoming. Unfortunately, the multilateral debt initia-tive
promises to keep poor countries on a borrowing treadmill, since they
will be eligible for future multilateral loans based on conditionality. There
is no reason, however, to believe that conditionality will work any better
in the future than it has in the past. Again, as a recent World Bank study
emphasized, '' A conditioned loan is no guarantee that reforms will be
carried out— or last once they are. ''
Nor is there reason to believe that debt relief will work better now
than in the past. As former World Bank economist William Easterly has
documented, donor nations have been forgiving poor countries' debts since
the late 1970s, and the result has simply been more debt. From 1989 to
1997, 41 highly indebted countries saw some $33 billion of debt forgive-ness,
yet they still find themselves in an untenable position. Indeed, they
have been borrowing ever-larger amounts from aid agencies. Easterly
notes, moreover, that private credit to the HIPCs has been virtually replaced
by foreign aid and that foreign aid itself has been lent on increasingly
easier terms. Thus, when the World Bank and IMF call for debt forgiveness,
it is the latest in a series of failed attempts by rich countries to resolve
poor countries' debts.
At the same time, it has become increasingly evident that the debt-relief
scheme is a financial shell game that allows the multilaterals to
repay their previous loans without having to write-down bad debt and
thus without negatively affecting their financial status. If official donors
wished to forgive debt, they could do so easily. Contributing money to
the multilateral debt-relief initiative, however, will do little to promote
reform or self-sustaining growth.
Other Initiatives
The inadequacy of government-to-government aid programs has
prompted an increased reliance on nongovernmental organizations
(NGOs). NGOs, or private voluntary organizations (PVOs), are said to be
more effective at delivering aid and accomplishing development objectives
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Table 66.1 Heavily Indebted Poor Countries:
Amount of Debt Attributable to Official Aid and Other Government-Backed Schemes, 2000
Total Public and
Publicly
Total Public and Guaranteed
Publicly Debt as a
Total Long-Term Guaranteed Percentage
Debt (billion Debt (billion of Long-Term
dollars) dollars) Debt
Angola 8.76 8.76 100. 00
Benin 1.44 1.44 100. 00
Bolivia 5.14 4.12 80.15
Burkina Faso 1.14 1.14 100. 00
Burundi 1.03 1.03 100. 00
Cameroon 7.67 7.36 95.87
Central African Rep. 0.81 0.81 100. 00
Chad 1.01 1.01 100. 00
Comoros 0.20 0.20 100. 00
Congo, Dem. Rep. 7.84 7.84 100. 00
Congo, Rep. 3.76 3.76 100. 00
Cote d'Ivoire 10.55 9.06 85.94
Ethiopia 5.32 5.32 100. 00
Gambia, The 0.43 0.43 100. 00
Ghana 5.79 5.53 95.56
Guinea 2.94 2.94 100. 00
Guinea-Bissau 0.82 0.82 100. 00
Guyana 1.21 1.21 99.67
Honduras 4.90 4.34 88.56
Kenya 5.36 5.18 96.73
Lao PDR 2.45 2.45 100. 00
Liberia 1.04 1.04 100. 00
Madagascar 4.30 4.30 100. 00
Malawi 2.56 2.56 100. 00
Mali 2.64 2.64 100. 00
Mauritania 2.15 2.15 100. 00
Mozambique 6.35 4.60 72.47
Myanmar 5.36 5.36 100. 00
Nicaragua 5.86 5.60 95.60
Niger 1.48 1.41 95.41
(continued)
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Table 66.1 (continued)
Total Public and
Publicly
Total Public and Guaranteed
Publicly Debt as a
Total Long-Term Guaranteed Percentage
Debt (billion Debt (billion of Long-Term
dollars) dollars) Debt
Rwanda 1.15 1.15 100. 00
Sao Tome and Principe 0.29 0.29 100. 00
Senegal 2.97 2.96 99.57
Sierra Leone 0.97 0.97 100. 00
Somalia 1.83 1.83 100. 00
Sudan 9.14 8.65 94.57
Tanzania 6.35 6.33 99.56
Togo 1.23 1.23 100. 00
Uganda 3.00 3.00 100. 00
Vietnam 11.55 11.55 100. 00
Yemen, Rep. 4.52 4.52 100. 00
Zambia 4.51 4.45 98.57
Total 157. 80 151. 31 95.89
SOURCE: World Bank, World Development Indicators Online, September 2002, http:// publications.
worldbank. org/ WDI.
because they are less bureaucratic and more in touch with the on-the-ground
realities of their clients.
Although channeling official aid monies through PVOs has been referred
to as a '' privatized'' form of foreign assistance, it is often difficult to
make a sharp distinction between government agencies and PVOs beyond
the fact that the latter are subject to less oversight and are less accountable.
Michael Maren, a former employee at Catholic Relief Services and U. S.
AID, notes that most PVOs receive most of their funds from govern-ment
sources.
Given that relationship— PVO dependence on government hardly makes
them private or voluntary— Maren and others have described how the
charitable goals on which PVOs are founded have been undermined. The
nonprofit organization Development GAP, for example, observed that U. S.
AID's '' overfunding of a number of groups has taxed their management
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capabilities, changed their institutional style, and made them more bureau-cratic
and unresponsive to the expressed needs of the poor overseas. ''
'' When aid bureaucracies evaluate the work of NGOs, '' Maren adds,
'' they have no incentive to criticize them. '' For their part, NGOs naturally
have an incentive to keep official funds flowing. In the final analysis,
government provision of foreign assistance through PVOs instead of tradi-tional
channels does not produce dramatically different results.
Microenterprise lending, another increasingly popular program among
advocates of aid, is designed to provide small amounts of credit to the
world's poorest people. The loans are used by the poor to establish live-stock,
manufacturing, and trade enterprises, for example.
Many microloan programs, such as the one run by the Grameen Bank
in Bangladesh, appear to be highly successful. Grameen has disbursed
more than $1. 5 billion since the 1970s and achieved a repayment rate
of about 98 percent. Microenterprise lending institutions, moreover, are
intended to be economically viable, able to achieve financial self-suffi-ciency
within three to seven years. Given those qualities, it is not clear
why microlending organizations would require subsidies. Indeed,
microenterprise banks typically refer to themselves as profitable enter-prises.
For those and other reasons, Princeton University's Jonathan Mor-duch
concluded in a 1999 study that '' the greatest promise of microfinance
is so far unmet, and the boldest claims do not withstand close scrutiny. ''
He added that, according to some estimates, '' if subsidies are pulled and
costs cannot be reduced, as many as 95 percent of current programs will
eventually have to close shop. ''
Furthermore, microenterprise programs alleviate the conditions of the
poor, but they do not address the causes of the lack of credit faced by
the poor. In developing countries, for example, about 70 percent of poor
people's property is not recognized by the state. Without secure private
property rights, most of the world's poor cannot use collateral to obtain
a loan. The Institute for Liberty and Democracy, a Peruvian think tank,
found that where poor people's property in Peru was registered, new
businesses were created, production increased, asset values rose by 200
percent, and credit became available. Of course, the scarcity of credit is
also caused by a host of other policy measures, such as financial regulation
that makes it prohibitively expensive to provide banking services for
the poor.
In sum, microenterprise programs can be beneficial, but successful
programs need not receive aid subsidies. The success of microenterprise
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programs, moreover, will depend on specific conditions, which vary greatly
from country to country. For that reason, microenterprise projects should
be financed privately by people who have their own money at stake rather
than by international aid bureaucracies that appear intent on replicating
such projects throughout the developing world.
Conclusion
Numerous studies have found that economic growth is strongly related
to the level of economic freedom. Put simply, the greater a country's
economic freedom, the greater its level of prosperity over time. Likewise,
the greater a country's economic freedom, the faster it will grow (Figure
66.1). Economic freedom, which includes not only policies, such as free
trade and stable money, but also institutions, such as the rule of law and
the security of private property rights, does not only increase income. It
is also strongly related to improvements in other development indicators
such as longevity, access to safe drinking water, lower corruption, and
lower poverty rates (Figure 66.2).
Figure 66.1 Economic Freedom and Economic Growth during the 1990s
–0.85
1.44
1.13
1.57
2.56
–1.50
0.00
1.50
3.00
Bottom 4th 3rd 2nd Top
Levels of Economic Freedom by Quintile
Growth
Rate
of
Real
per
Capita
GDP
(%)
SOURCE: James Gwartney and Robert Lawson, Economic Freedom of the World: 2002 Annual Report (Vancou-ver:
Fraser Institute, 2002).
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Figure 66.2 Economic Freedom and the Income Level of the Poorest 10%
728 1,282 1,391
4,108
7,017
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Bottom 4th 3rd 2nd Top
Levels of Economic Freedom by Quintile
Lowest
10%
of
Income,
PPP
$US
2000
SOURCE: James Gwartney and Robert Lawson, Economic Freedom of the World: 2002 Annual Report (Vancou-ver:
Fraser Institute, 2002).
NOTE: PPP purchasing power parity.
Those developing countries, such as Chile and Taiwan, that have most
liberalized their economies and achieved high levels of growth have done
far more to reduce poverty and improve their citizens' standards of living
than have foreign aid programs.
In the end, a country's progress depends almost entirely on its domestic
policies and institutions, not on outside factors such as foreign aid. Congress
should recognize that foreign aid has not caused the worldwide shift toward
the market and that appeals for more foreign aid, even when intended to
promote the market, will continue to do more harm than good.
Suggested Readings
Bhalla, Surjit. Imagine There Is No Country: Poverty, Inequality and Growth in the Era of Globalization. Washington: Institute for International Economics, 2002.
Bandow, Doug, and Ian Va´squez, eds. Perpetuating Poverty: The World Bank, the IMF, and the Developing World. Washington: Cato Institute, 1994.
Bauer, P. T. Dissent on Development. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1972. De Soto, Hernando. The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and
Fails Everywhere Else. New York: Basic Books, 2000.
Dollar, David, and Aart Kraay. '' Trade, Growth and Poverty. '' World Bank research paper, March 2001.
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Dorn, James A., Steve H. Hanke, and Alan A. Walters, eds. The Revolution in Develop-ment Economics. Washington: Cato Institute, 1998.
Easterly, William. The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadven-tures in the Topics. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2001.
Gwartney, James, and Robert Lawson. Economic Freedom of the World 2002. Vancouver: Fraser Institute, 2002.
International Financial Institution Advisory Commission (Meltzer Commission). '' Report to the U. S. Congress and the Department of the Treasury. '' March 8, 2000.
www. house. gov/ jec/ imf/ meltyzer. htm. Lal, Deepak. The Poverty of '' Development Economics. '' London: Institute of Economic
Affairs, 1983, 1997. Lindsey, Brink. Against the Dead Hand: The Uncertain Struggle for Global Capitalism.
New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2002. Lukas, Aaron, and Ian Va´squez. '' Rethinking the Export-Import Bank. '' Cato Institute
Trade Briefing Paper no. 15, March 12, 2002. Maren, Michael. The Road to Hell: Foreign Aid and International Charity. New York:
Free Press, 1997. Va´squez, Ian. '' Ending Mass Poverty. '' Economic Perspectives, U. S. Department of
State electronic journal, September 2001, http:// usinfo. state. gov/ journals/ ites/ 0901/ ijee/ toc. htm.
. '' Official Assistance, Economic Freedom, and Policy Change: Is Foreign Aid Like Champagne? '' Cato Journal 18, no. 2 (Fall 1998).
Walters, Alan. '' Do We Need the IMF and the World Bank? '' Institute of Economic Affairs Current Controversies no. 10, September 1994.
World Bank. Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't, And Why. New York: Oxford University Press, 1998.
—Prepared by Ian Va´squez
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Contributors
Charles W. Baird is professor of economics at California State University at Hayward. Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and author of Tripwire: Korea
and U. S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World. Patrick Basham is a senior fellow in the Cato Institute's Center for Representative
Government. David Boaz is executive vice president of the Cato Institute.
Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute and author of Peace and Freedom: Foreign Policy for a Constitu-tional
Republic. Barbara Conry is an associate policy analyst with the Cato Institute and coeditor of
NATO Enlargement: Illusions and Reality. Edward H. Crane is president of the Cato Institute.
Clyde Wayne Crews Jr. is director of technology studies at the Cato Institute. Tad DeHaven is a research assistant in fiscal policy studies at the Cato Institute.
Veronique de Rugy is a fiscal policy analyst at the Cato Institute. James A. Dorn is vice president for academic affairs at the Cato Institute and coeditor
of China's Future: Constructive Partner or Emerging Threat? Chris Edwards is director of fiscal policy studies at the Cato Institute.
Ivan Eland is director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute and author of Putting '' Defense'' Back in Defense Policy: Rethinking U. S. Security in the Post– Cold
War World. Michael Gough is an adjunct scholar of the Cato Institute and coauthor of Silencing
Science. Daniel T. Griswold is associate director of the Cato Institute's Center for Trade Policy
Studies and coeditor of Economic Casualties: How U. S. Foreign Policy Undermines Trade, Growth, and Liberty.
Marie E. Gryphon is an education policy analyst at the Cato Institute. Leon T. Hadar is a research fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.
Scott E. Harrington is professor of insurance and finance and Francis M. Hipp Distin-guished Faculty Fellow in the Darla Moore College of Business Administration,
University of South Carolina. Gene Healy is senior editor at the Cato Institute.
Stanley Kober is a research fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute. Robert A. Levy is senior fellow in constitutional studies at the Cato Institute.
Brink Lindsey is director of the Cato Institute's Center for Trade Policy Studies and author of Against the Dead Hand: The Uncertain Struggle for Global Capitalism.
Timothy Lynch is director of the Cato Institute's Project on Criminal Justice and editor of After Prohibition: An Adult Approach to Drug Policies in the 21st Century.
Patrick J. Michaels is professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, senior fellow in environmental studies at the Cato Institute, and author of Satanic
Gases: Clearing the Air about Global Warming.
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Tom Miller is director of health policy studies at the Cato Institute. William A. Niskanen is chairman of the Cato Institute and author of Policy Analysis
and Public Choice.
Tom G. Palmer is senior fellow at the Cato Institute. Charles V. Pen~ a is senior defense policy analyst at the Cato Institute.
Roger Pilon is vice president for legal affairs at the Cato Institute where he holds the B. Kenneth Simon Chair in Constitutional Studies and is director of Cato's Center
for Constitutional Studies. He is also editor of The Rule of Law in the Wake of Clinton. Sheldon Richman is editor of Ideas on Liberty.
L. Jacobo Rodri´guez is financial services analyst at the Cato Institute. William Ruger is a research fellow in foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.
David Salisbury is director of the Center for Educational Freedom at the Cato Institute. John Samples is director of the Center for Representative Government at the Cato
Institute. David Schoenbrod, a former senior attorney and cofounder of the Natural Resources
Defense Council and now a professor at New York Law School, is an adjunct scholar of the Cato Institute and author of Power without Responsibility: How Congress
Abuses the People through Delegation.
Geoffrey F. Segal is director of privatization and government reform at the Reason Foundation.
Michael Tanner is director of health and welfare studies at the Cato Institute, author of The End of Welfare: Fighting Poverty in the Civil Society, and coauthor of A New
Deal for Social Security.
Jerry Taylor is director of natural resource studies at the Cato Institute. Adam Thierer is director of telecommunications studies at the Cato Institute.
Peter VanDoren is editor of Regulation magazine and author of Chemicals, Cancer, and Choices: Risk Reduction through Markets.
Ian Va´squez is director of the Project on Global Economic Liberty at the Cato Institute and editor of Global Fortune: The Stumble and Rise of World Capitalism.
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